Rick Porcello
Position: SP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: Dec. 27, 1988 (30)
Traditional Stats: 14-12, 5.52 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
Advanced Stats: 1.1 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR, 87 ERA+, 4.76 FIP
Rick Porcello was drafted by the Detroit Tigers with the No. 27 overall pick in the 2007 MLB Draft. He chose to forgo playing at the University of North Carolina to begin his professional baseball career.
It only took two short years for Porcello to rise through the Tigers farm system, making the Opening Day rotation in 2009 at just 20-years-old. Porcello made 31 starts in his first season, pitching to a 3.96 ERA across 170.2 innings pitched. He ended up finishing that season third in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting behind Andrew Bailey and Elvis Andrus, with Bailey winning the award.
Porcello spent five more seasons pitching in the Tigers rotation. Over the six-year span that he was in Detroit, Porcello pitched to a 76-63 record and a 4.30 ERA.
His final season in a Tigers uniform ended up being his best in 2014. That year, Porcello pitched to 3.43 ERA and set a career-high with three complete game shutouts.
With Porcello a year away from free agency, the Tigers traded him to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Wilson and Gabe Speier. Following the trade, Porcello was given a four-year, $82.5 million contract extension.
In Porcello’s first year in Boston, he pitched to a dismal 9-15 record with a 4.92 ERA. That poor season just set up Porcello for an even more impressive year in 2016.
Porcello pitched to a career-best 3.15 ERA in 2016 and led the American League in wins with his 22-4 record. Following the season, Porcello took home plenty of hardware as he was named the American League’s Cy Young and Comeback Player of the Year.
Since winning the Cy Young, Porcello struggled to find that same success in Boston. In 2017, he led all AL pitchers in losses (17), hits allowed (236) and home runs allowed (38).
In 2018, Porcello had a great 17-7 record, but pitched to an average 4.28 ERA. He was pretty solid in the postseason that year, pitching to a combined 3.52 ERA during the Red Sox’ run to winning the World Series.
Last year, Porcello endured the worst season of his career, as he pitched to a 5.52 ERA.
Contract
Rick Porcello enters free agency at the worst time after all of his struggles in 2019. Still, Porcello is turning just 31-years-old at the end of December, giving some hope that a career resurgence could still be on the table for the 11-year veteran.
Coming off four years in which he was paid north of $20 million annually, Porcello has to be prepared to take a pay cut this offseason. The question just remains as to how significant of a pay cut.
There are two things helping Porcello as he hits the market. One is that he is a former Cy Young winner and his durability is the other. Porcello has made 27 or more starts in every season since his debut and has eclipsed 30 or more starts eight times.
Because team’s can count on him taking the ball every fifth day, and will hope for some return to past form, Porcello may still earn an eight-figure contract or something close to it. Some have projected the Mets to sign Porcello to a one-year, $9 million deal.
Recommendation
There seems to be a lot of momentum building towards the New York Mets signing Rick Porcello, as reports continue to come out linking the two sides. Porcello is a New Jersey kid, having grown up and gone to high school in West Orange, so it would be a homecoming of sorts.
The reason this signing is beginning to feel likely is the idea that it can be sold as, “Mets sign former Cy Young Rick Porcello”, rather than Mets sign pitcher coming off 5.52 ERA season.
The one argument I can make for this signing working out is that Porcello will no longer have to pitch in the AL East and particularly against that vaunted New York Yankees lineup.
In 2019, Porcello yielded 20 runs in his four starts against the Yankees, across 15 innings pitched. If you simply remove the Yankees, Porcello pitched to a less ugly 4.91 ERA.
Still, there are better starting pitchers on the market than Porcello, some of which that can be had for less money. Personally, I would pass on Porcello, but Brodie Van Wagenen may feel differently.
