We’re all quite familiar with the scenario these New York Mets have vaulted themselves into by now — 21-9 since the calendar turned to July, 19-6 in the second half, a half-game behind (and tied in the loss column with) the Milwaukee Brewers for the second National League wild-card spot, eight-and-a-half games back of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves with nine games remaining between the two clubs.
The tide has turned in an almost unbelievable way. But, thanks to one of the more unexpected turnarounds in franchise history, these Mets have made quite a compelling point; ya gotta believe.
Behind the best second-half rotation in baseball (2.77 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 5.4 fWAR are all tops in MLB since the All-Star break), a resurgent bullpen (3.06 second-half ERA is third-best), and a dynamic positional core in Jeff McNeil, the suddenly-surging-again Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, an in-full-bloom Amed Rosario, and the increasingly impressive J.D. Davis, the sky is once again the limit for this ballclub.
With a three-game series at home versus the Washington Nationals beginning on Friday, the Mets have the opportunity to insert themselves into the wild-card driver’s seat. Having the luxury of Marcus Stroman making his Mets home debut on Friday, followed by Noah Syndergaard (1.78 ERA in five post-ASG starts) and Jacob deGrom (2.08 ERA over his last 14 starts) should provide quite the head start to taking care of business.
With Alonso (.296/.367/.704, five extra-base hits in August), Conforto, (.296/.387/.593, nine homers, five doubles since July 1), Rosario (.329/.364/.488, 10 doubles, two triples, four homers, 28 strikeouts since June 15), Davis (.400/.490/.750, eight extra-base hits since July 25), Wilson Ramos (.258/.320/.376 since July 1), and McNeil (best gosh-darn hitter in baseball) leading the way offensively, this wave appears to be cresting at the most opportune time imaginable.
After the Nats series, the Mets will embark on a six-game road trip. The first three of those contests will be at the Braves. If the Mets have any hopes of making a serious run at a division title, riding this stretch into-and-through Atlanta victoriously is nearly a necessity.
Will this recent torrid stretch be all for naught if the Mets don’t take advantage of this oncoming opportunity? No, but their 42.5% postseason odds (FanGraphs) will surely take a hit.
Look, a strong week would do wonders for the postseason hopes of this ballclub, no doubt. A losing record over the next six games would hurt the bottom line substantially, or at least decimate the impressive surplus of momentum the Mets have hoarded over the last six weeks. But it won’t close the book on this team.
We’ve learned that much about this group over the last four months. LFGM.
