It’s interesting how much — and, at the same time, how little — certain statistics can tell us when looking at them individually.
When it comes to Jeff McNeil, his tremendous bat-to-ball skills were what helped him get elected to his first All-Star Game. Sure, he had already more than doubled his home-run production in roughly the same number of plate appearances (three in 248 last year and seven in 318 this year), but it was his league-leading .340 average that caught everyone’s attention. He had a 13-point lead in that category over Cody Bellinger and was even in the neighborhood of John Olerud‘s franchise record.
Upon looking at his post-All-Star break batting average of .308, one would imagine he’s not having as much success as he did before the midsummer classic. As we all know, though, that’s just not true. He’s still leading the league in hitting — even if his .339 average is just a few points above the rest of the pack — but when looking at his overall production, McNeil has been off the charts over the past month.
His wRC+ and OPS are both higher in the second half than his first-half performance, and it’s because of his puppy power. After hitting those seven home runs in 318 plate appearances prior to the All-Star Game, he’s already slugged eight in his last 105 trips to the plate.
McNeil has literally more than doubled this season’s homer total in a third of the plate appearances. So what heck is going on here (outside of the obvious impact of being the new owner of an adorable puppy)?
The first change — which is probably pretty obvious — is a shift in his batted-ball profile. Here’s a look at how things have changed when splitting McNeil’s season up at the All-Star break:
| 2019 | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | Soft% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | 23.8% | 43.5% | 32.7% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 39.8% |
| Second Half | 21.7% | 37.7% | 40.6% | 3.6% | 10.0% | 34.3% |
The drop in hard contact isn’t preferred, but it isn’t a ton worse than the league’s season-long average, while McNeil’s second-half soft-hit rate is well below the league average. And, of course, any power surge is going to have a spike in fly balls, and it typically coincides with fewer infield flies. It’s nice that these improvements mostly came at the expense of his ground-ball rate, too.
McNeil has also used this time to become even more aggressive at the plate. Check out how his chase rate and swing rate on strikes have progressed between these two time periods:
| 2019 | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | 39.1% | 84.4% | 58.3% | 10.7% |
| Second Half | 45.2% | 85.1% | 62.2% | 13.0% |
Although this increased aggressiveness hasn’t led to a higher rate of either overall or hard contact, he’s clearly made the most of the balls he does put in play. This has also led to a rise in strikeout rate (11.9% in first half, 17.8% in the second half), but one would imagine the Mets will take this production how it’s coming. Clearly, it’s been a huge asset to the club during its greatest streak of dominance since 1990.
Pitchers have slightly changed their approach against McNeil since the All-Star break, as it’s included getting ahead in the count more often (62.6% first-pitch strike rate in first half, 68.3% in second half). It’s also included more sliders — 27-year-old saw this offering at a 13.6% clip prior to the All-Star break and 21.7% following it. Either way, that doesn’t seem to be working since he’s produced a 150 wRC+, .922 OPS, and .226 ISO against that specific pitch this season.
McNeil’s power surge won’t last for the long haul (I think — you never know with these guys right now), but there have been some clear changes in his approach and execution throughout the duration of it. One thing that’s been constant, though, is that he’s remained just as valuable to the Mets as ever at the top of their order.
