After losing three of four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who now hold the best record in the National League, the Mets (27-29) look to rebound against the the fourth place team in the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks (28-29).
The Diamondbacks have been a very streaky team this season with six total winning AND losing streaks of four games or more this season. The team is currently in one of those streaks after being swept in a four game series against the Colorado Rockies. They also have lost nine of their last twelve games, all of them games against divisional opponents. Despite being one game under .500 though, the Diamondbacks boast the third best run differential in the National League resulting in an “expected” win-loss record of 32-25 so the team clearly has been much better than their record indicates.
The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the best in the MLB this season ranking 5th in the MLB in AVG (.261), 8th in OPS (.781) and runs per game (5.25/game). A big part of the team’s success has been the late career breakout for Eduardo Escobar and the post-hype breakout of 2B/CF Ketel Marte. Across seven seasons for the Minnesota Twins, Escobar was a super-sub player posting an average seasonal line of .258 AVG/.729 OPS. He broke out in 2018 hitting .268 AVG/.852 OPS with 15 HR before being traded to the Diamondbacks and he has since continued his improved statistical performance. This season he once again is posting career best numbers with a .286 AVG/.905 OPS and 14 HR already this season leading the team in most categories.
While Escobar’s breakout is more timing than anything, Ketel Marte‘s has been the result of real offensive profile changes. After four middling seasons of a .263 AVG/.712 OPS, Marte doubled his launch angle from 5.7 degrees to 10.0 degrees and it has resulted in some stark improvements. His expected SLG has increased almost 100 points, his hard hit contact % increased from 36.7% to 41.8%, and his barreled ball rate has more than doubled from 5.0% to 11.3%. While this has also resulted in an increase in Ks (from 13.6% to 17.7%) its hard to argue with the results as he has a .279 AVG/.856 OPS this season with 12 HR already this season; two less than his current career high.
While the offense has been superb, the team’s pitching has been a bit up and down this season. As a club the rotation ranks 11th in the MLB in ERA (4.10), and 14th in AVG against (.249) and K/BB ratio (2.84). Zack Grienke continues to be a consistent talented presence at the top of the rotation and the team has gotten excellent performances from former Cardinals prospect Luke Weaver (although he was just placed on the 10 Day IL) but after those two the rotation has been very iffy. Korea import RHP Merrill Kelly has not been able to replicate the same success Miles Mikolas was able to have in 2018, Robbie Ray ranks 5th in the MLB in K/9 but only has one quality start in twelve starts, and Zack Godley has already lost his rotation spot.
While closer Greg Holland (1.53 ERA, 9 saves) has been one of the best relievers so far this season, the ineffectiveness of part of the team’s rotation has put a lot of stress on the center of the team’s bullpen as the trio of Yoshihisa Hirano, Andrew Chafin, and Yoan Lopez are all on pace for 75+ appearances this season. While Lopez seems to be handling the workload well….Hirano (7.45 ERA in May) and Chafin (4.70 ERA in May) both have been struggling lately. In addition, the team’s best bullpen weapon over the last two season, Archie Bradley, has been struggling lately as well with a 7.94 ERA in the month of May.
May 31: Zack Wheeler (R) vs Jon Duplantier (R)
Repertoire: Sinker (38%) [94-98 mph], Four-Seam Fastball (19%) [94-98 mph], Curveball (18%) [80-85 mph], Slider (14%) [85-87 mph], Changeup (11%) [85-88 mph]
2019 Stats: 1-0 record, 2.25 ERA (3.40 FIP), 1.083 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, Hard Hit% (37.9%), Avg Exit Velocity (90.0 mph)
The team’s top pitching prospect will make his first career MLB start in place of the recently injured Luke Weaver after three separate promotions/demotions to help support their bullpen at various times this season. In those relief appearances, Duplantier has been a savior for the club’s bullpen pitching three innings or more on three separate occasions. He throws from a low three-quarters arm slot which helps him get a ton of movement on his fastball/sinker as well as the slider but it has also resulted in him having command issues at times. Between the MLB and AAA, he has walked 18 batters in 29 IP as well as five wild pitches and four hit by pitches.
June 1: Jacob Degrom (R) vs Zack Greinke (R)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (41%) [90-93 mph], Changeup (21%) [87-89 mph], Slider (18%) [83-87 mph], Curveball/Eephus (12%) [67-80 mph], Sinker (8%) [90-93 mph]
2019 Stats: 6-2 record, 2.78 ERA (3.37 FIP), 0.876 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, Hard Hit% (32.1%), Avg Exit Velocity (86.3 mph)
As reference above, Greinke is having his best season as a Diamondbacks player and he is in the middle of a nine game quality start streak. Over that nine game time span, Greinke has been nearly unhittable allowing only a .175 AVG/.484 OPS against resulting in a 1.61 ERA. He currently ranks 8th overall in the MLB in WAR for pitchers (+2.5), 10th in ERA and wins, and 4th in WHIP.
Greinke has made eight career starts against the Mets and has done quite well in them with a 5-1 record, 3.08 ERA, 0.987 WHIP against them over the years. While he hasn’t faced the Mets young bats at the top of the lineup much, Greinke has had a lot of success against the older players at the bottom of the Mets current lineup. Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechevarria, and Carlos Gomez/Juan Lagares are a combined 12-for-73 (.164 AVG) although eight of those hits were for extra bases.
June 2: Steven Matz (L) vs Merrill Kelly (R)
Repertoire: Four-Seam Fastball (37%) [92-96 mph], Curveball (18%) [80-85 mph], Cutter (15%) [89-93 mph], Change-up (15%) [86-88 mph], Sinker (15%) [91-94 mph]
2019 Stats: 4-6 record, 4.83 ERA (4.81 FIP), 1.508 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, Hard Hit% (38.7%), Avg Exit Velocity (89.2 mph)
Its not often that an MLB player leaves to US to play baseball overseas and then comes back to the US and has success…but with how great Miles Mikolas was for the Cardinals last season after three season in Japan, and the success the Diamondbacks had imported Hirano last season, the team decided to give Merrill Kelly a shot to return after four seasons in Korea. Unfortunately, the results have not been there for Kelly who has struggled to miss bats ranking 74th out of 84 qualified SPs in Swinging Strike Rates (8.4%) and 72nd in strikeouts per 9 IP. Things have been even worse for him lately as he’s only register one quality start in his last five starts and losing four of them.
