The New York Mets (14-13) conclude their 10 game home stand against the Cincinnati Reds (11-16) in a four-game set starting Monday. It will be the only time the Reds visit Citi Field in the 2019 regular season.
The Reds are currently in last place in the National League Central, trailing the St. Louis Cardinals by six games. Although they have won six out of their last 10, they’ve already suffered through losing streaks of four games and another of eight games so far in the early going. They are coming off losing two out of the three to the first place Cardinals.
Cincinnati as a team currently ranks No. 11 in team batting with 99 runs scored, but are dead last in the NL in batting average, hitting an anemic .208. In fact, the team leader in batting average, Eugenio Suarez, is hitting only .242. As a comparison, the Mets are hitting .260 as a team.
As far as team pitching, things are much better, as the Reds rank first in the NL in that category with an excellent 3.27 ERA as a team. Opponents are hitting only .235 against the Reds and they have only given up 88 earned runs through their first 27 games.
In team defense, the Reds rank eighth in the NL with 14 errors in the young season. Unfortunately, the Mets are last in the league with 22. On paper, the Mets should do well against the last place Big Red Machine, but the Mets have been very inconsistent at home this year. They have a chance here with just a modicum of good pitching to do well against the light-hitting Reds.
Monday, April 29: RHP Zack Wheeler vs RHP Tanner Roark
2019 Stats: Wheeler 2-2 record, 4.85 ERA (3.64 FIP), 1.348 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9; Roark 1-1 record, 3.24 ERA (3.81 FIP), 1.600 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Reds’ starting pitcher for Game 1 against New York will be Tanner Roark who was acquired from the Washington Nationals on Dec. 12, 2018. He is coming off a solid, though losing, effort against the Atlanta Braves, giving up only one earned run over five innings.
With Washington, Roark appeared in 22 games against the Mets from 2013-18. He went 8-4 with a solid 3.07 ERA, striking out 96 and walking 34, a near 3:1 ratio. This year with the Reds, he has allowed 29 hits in 25 innings pitched with 24 strikeouts and 11 walks to go with his 3.24 ERA.
Roark, 33, has given up 27 hits to active Mets led by four each by Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Conforto has also homered off of Roark. Juan Lagares, Amed Rosario and Robinson Cano (who is hitting .500 against Roark) each have three hits against the Illinois native.
Zack Wheeler was dominant both at the plate and on the mound in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies. He pitched seven shutout against the Phils striking out 11. In his last three games, Wheeler is 2-1 with an impressive 2.25 ERA. He is looking like the pitcher that was dominant in the second half of last season. At the dish, he stroked two extra base-hits and drove in three against Philadelphia.
Tuesday, April 30: LHP Jason Vargas vs. RHP Luis Castillo
2019 stats: Vargas 1-1 record, 7.20 ERA (6.40 FIP), 1.933 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 5.4 BB/9: Castillo 3-1 record, 1.23 ERA (2.53 FIP), .955 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
Luis Castillo has had a dominant start to his 2019 campaign. The 26-year-old right-hander leads the league in ERA, ERA+ (3.68) and HR/9 (0.2). He is beginning his third season as a Cincinnati Red and is quickly becoming the ace of the staff, if not one of the best pitchers in the NL. Castillo is coming off a victory on Thursday against the Braves pitching six innings plus of scoreless ball.
If you exclude Yoenis Cespedes who is still recovering from injuries to both his heels, only six active Mets have faced Castillo. The Mets are 0-1 against him and only have three hits, one each by Keon Broxton, Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario. He has been a tough customer against New York.
Jason Vargas pitched well in his last stint against the Phillies. He pitched 4.2 innings and held his NL East foes to just one run. Vargas has been mostly effective against the opposition the first two times against the line-up but falls apart after that as his 7.20 ERA would suggest.
Wednesday, May 1: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Anthony DeSclafani
2019 stats: deGrom 2-3 record, 4.85 ERA (3.71 FIP), 1.385 WHIP, 14.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9: DeSclafani 1-1 record, 4.26 ERA (5.03 FIP), 1.263 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
Freehold, New Jersey native Anthony DeScalfani will take the hill for the Reds against the Mets in Game 3 of the series. The 29-year old is in his fourth season with the Reds. In his last start, he earned a victory over the Cardinals on Friday where he pitched six scoreless innings in a 12-1 Cincinnati win. In 25.1 innings pitched, he has allowed 21 hits while striking out 28. He’s been especially effective in his last two starts as he is locating his fastball higher in the strike zone with success.
DeScalfini is 0-3 against the Mets lifetime, having last faced them last in 2016. Only two Mets have more than one hit against the NJ native, Noah Syndergaard and Wilson Ramos with two each.
Jacob deGrom is the reigning 2018 Cy Young Award winner, but his last three starts have been nothing like the stellar performance that deGrom usually gives. In those starts, he is 0-3 with an unsightly 9.69 ERA. He says he is healthy now and that the problem is mechanical. Hopefully, he’ll discover the mechanical flaw soon and get back to being the National League’s best pitcher very soon.
Thursday, May 2: RHP Noah Syndergaard vs RHP Tyler Mahle
2019 stats: Syndergaard 1-3 record, 6.35 ERA (3.72 FIP), 1.471 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9; Mahle 0-3 record, ERA 4.50 (FIP 3.88), 1.393 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Tyler Mahle, 24, is in his third year as a Red. This game against the Mets will be his 33rd life-time start with a career record of 8-14. His last start was a loss against the Cardinals on Saturday. In that game, Mahle pitched five innings, allowing five runs on seven hits.
Mahle faced the Mets once in his rookie year in 2017 and was pinned with the loss. He pitched four innings, allowing three runs on six hits. Dominic Smith and Brandon Nimmo are both one-for one against Mahle with Nimmo’s hit being a double.
Noah Syndergaard has been perplexing if downright ineffective. He’s given up 40 hits in 34 innings, allowed four or more runs in four straight games for the first time in his career and ends April with an ugly 6.35 ERA. In fact, that ERA figure was the worst in a calendar month that Syndergaard has had since 2015 where he had a 5.15 ERA in June. He has certainly struggled to find any rhythm through the first part of the 2019 season.
Prediction: The Mets are 3-3 on this 10 game home stand. To make it at least a somewhat palatable stand, the Mets would have to win three of four to finish with a 6-4 record. Of course a sweep would even be better, putting the taste of a series loss to the Milwaukee Brewers behind them. Tuesday’s match-up is a big concern, and with the Mets penchant for inconsistency at home, a split is a likely outcome. But we’ll put our orange and blue lenses on and say that the Mets find a way to get three of four off the last-place Reds.
