RHP James Shields

Position: SP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: December 20, 1981 (37)

Traditional Stats: 7-16, 4.53 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9
Advanced Stats: 1.4 bWAR, 0.8fWAR, 93 ERA+, 5.09 FIP

In 2014, Shields was the ace on a Royals team which shocked all of baseball. After that season, he was a free agent, and he would eventually cash-in receiving a four year $75 million deal with a club option from the Padres. He was supposed to be a big part of a Padres team who made a number of key moves made with the intent of contending.

After being separated from his pitching coach Dave Eiland, Shields would not have the same success he had in the American League. The nadir of his career would be his serving up Bartolo Colon‘s home run.

After that, he was traded to the Chicago White Sox. In the deal, the White Sox gave up Fernando Tatis, Jr. thereby giving everyone another reason to make Shields a punchline.

Over the last two years with the White Sox, Shields struggled on a rebuilding team. That included his league leading 16 losses last season. Lost in that has been his durability. In all 13 of his Major League seasons, he has made at least 21 starts, and he has pitched over 200 innings in 10 of those seasons. The most recent 200 inning season was last year.

Still, his peripherals have not been great. His 5.09 FIP was his best with the White Sox, and his 93 ERA+ was his second best since he departed the Royals organization. Still, there is reason for hope with Shields.

Shields struggled in April with a 6.14 ERA and a 1.705 WHIP. He would be considerably better than that. From May 1 until the end of the season, Shields had a much more reasonable 4.26 ERA and a 1.243 WHIP.

Like most pitchers, Shields would begin to get into trouble the third time through the order. When he faced a batter a third time, his strikeout rate dropped and batters slugging percentage increased. When he pitched in the seventh inning, opposing batters hit .302/.362/.509 off of him. Essentially, the more batters see Shields, the less he fools them.

It should also be noted Shields has had his share of first inning problems as well, which means he gives himself little margin of error. For Shields, the challenge for any team is finding the best way to utilize Shields. The best hope is he could reasonable facsimile how C.C. Sabathia adapted to being roughly a five plus inning pitcher over the last few seasons. The downside is more of the same.

Contract

Given his age and production over the past few seasons, there is little reason to believe Shields would receive anything more than a minor league deal. In fact, you have to wonder how many teams will line up looking for his services, which should make Shields begin to contemplate retirement, if he has not already.

Recommendation

Right now, even with the acquisition of Walker Lockett and signing Hector Santiago, the Mets starting pitching depth is suspect. That grows all the more suspect when you consider both Lockett and Santiago are probably better suited to the bullpen. That leaves the Mets once again looking to Corey Oswalt, Chris Flexen, and P.J. Conlon, a trio of pitchers who all had over a 5.09 ERA, which as you may notice was Shields’ FIP last year.

Ultimately, no one should expect anything from Shields. However, no one should expect anything beyond the Mets top four starters, which includes Jason Vargas, who had a 5.77 ERA, 64 ERA+, and a 5.02 FIP while pitching in a much better pitcher’s park than Shields. Put another way, the Mets need bodies, and they need people who know how to pitch. That is Shields, and who knows? Maybe pitching in a better park in front of a better defense and with a pitching coach with whom he once thrived could help Shields rediscover something.

For a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, it is certainly worth a try.