Michael Conforto, OF
Player Data: Age: 25, B/T: L/R
Primary Stats: 153 G, 638 PA, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 84 BB, 159 K, .243/.350/.448
Advanced Stats: .289 BABIP, 120 wRC+, .342 wOBA, 124 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR, 3.0 fWAR
Free agency: 2022
2019 Salary: $600K (first-year arbitration eligible)
Grade: B+
2018 Review
When a torn shoulder capsule knocked the wind out of his 2017 campaign, Michael Conforto seemed due for a slow recovery, and potentially an even slower return to form once healthy. So when he was activated from the disabled list on April 5 – nearly a month ahead of schedule – the expectation (at least to a certain extent) was that Conforto’s injury was not as devastating as the fanbase and training staff had originally feared, even with the surgery. Save for a slovenly week or two in which the rust would have to wear off, it should have been as though Conforto had never left.
Of course, seeing as this is the same team that hung Steven Matz and a periodically swollen, damaged elbow out to dry the year before, such an assumption would of course prove to be far-fetched, and an already struggling Met offense paid the price. Through his first 57 games, Conforto would hit just .212/.341/.363 with eight homers, 17 RBI, and 57 strikeouts in 232 plate appearances, and discussions of potentially optioning the 2017 All-Star began to surface. A .167/.258/.296 slash against lefties, .188/.361/.344 line out of the leadoff spot, and .189/.415/.270 mark with runners in scoring position best defined a two-month period in which Conforto, though compensating with the walks, ultimately failed to catch up to big-league pitching.
Conforto occasionally drifted from the interstate thanks to a few hot streaks here and there, but coming up on a much-needed break in July following the end of the first half, his average remained at a paltry .216, and his slugging percentage just.366. It would be unfair to hold such struggles against Conforto given how blatantly he had been rushed back from his rehab, though it’s important to consider in grading his season. Without such points of reference, it’s tough to understand just how impactful his second half turnaround would turn out to be, and furthermore just how much he is truly capable of.
For one thing, the Mets finally stopped experimenting with Conforto in center field, moving him to his natural position in left while Brandon Nimmo came over from right, thereby replacing a concerning -4.0 UZR and -8 DRS in center with league-average range values as well as a 1.000 fielding percentage. Manager Mickey Callaway also spared Conforto from a leadoff role that had clearly lost its charm, entrusting him with the third and cleanup slots through 55 of his 64 starts in the second half.
It was almost as though getting comfortable and having a definite role was all it took… at least the second-half numbers would say so: .273/.356/.539 with a .377 wOBA, 143 wRC+, and 38.4% hard-hit rate – the latter three all clear improvements over his .313, 101, and 33.5% prior to the break. Adjusting and comparing some aspects of Conforto’s production to his 440 plate appearances in 2017, he would have had 26 homers, 78 RBI, 47 walks, and 65 runs scored – almost a carbon copy of his 27, 68, 57, and 72 in 109 games that year (respectively).
Conforto also revived his approach to left-handed pitching in the second half, posting an .889 OPS, .291 ISO, and .379 wOBA – all second among left-handed hitters in baseball behind NL MVP Christian Yelich. In high leverage spots, he was even harder to crack, mashing his way to a 1.022 OPS, .304 ISO, and .389 wOBA – the second, second, and fourth-highest in the National League, respectively.
Strikeouts remained an Achilles heel of Conforto’s, as his 25% K-rate in the second half was nearly identical to his 24.9% in the first. In two-strike counts, the rates jumped to 45.9% and 41.5%, respectively. His 24.9% rate overall made for the 21st-highest in the majors, and is something that the Mets evidently look for new hitting coach Chili Davis to correct ahead of 2019. In fairness to Conforto, such an issue pervaded his prior two seasons as well, as his 25.6% and 25.7% can confirm.
2019 Outlook
Michael Conforto’s 2018 season can best be described as a repeat performance of his 2017 breakout, albeit in just over half the amount of games, with his first three months of action representing a painfully slow buildup of sorts. Seeing as he will report to camp with both a healthy shoulder and a warm place in the middle of the order for the first time in his big-league career, there is a lot to be excited about.
The Mets are going to need all hands on deck in support of a glistening pitching staff that went unsupported through much of the year. Expect Conforto to be more of a solution than a problem in this regard, so long as he’s healthy.
It simply remains to be seen if Conforto can translate his success across a 162-game season, but with his skill set, even 100 games will certainly be enough to make a tangible difference. All things equal, the Mets have a potential difference maker in the outfield.
