Going into 2017, the Mets and Nationals will clearly be the two teams fighting for the NL East title, with the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins lagging behind. While most people give the overall edge to the Nationals saying they will take the East, let’s take a closer look at these two teams and see who has the edge. In this article, we’ll compare the starting rotations, bullpens, and managers.
Starting Rotation – Mets
The Nationals have one of the most consistent and effective pitchers in baseball, Max Scherzer. He has won two Cy Young awards in the past four years and finished 5th in voting in the other two. During that four-year span he has appeared in four All Star games, going 73-27 with a 2.95 ERA (2.90 FIP) and striking out 1052 batters. The closest thing the Mets have to Scherzer is Noah Syndergaard. It is hard to determine which is the better pitcher currently, but I’d have to give Scherzer the edge considering his track record.
The next best thing the Nationals have got is Stephen Strasburg. Before his Tommy John surgery, he was as huge a pitching phenomenon as could be, throwing 100 mph with devastating breaking balls. Since the surgery, though, while he is still a good pitcher, he has not performed quite at that level. The Mets have a Strasburg of their own. In fact, they have a few. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz have all faced injuries in their career and any one of them can produce equal to or better numbers than Strasburg.
While the Nationals’ rotation drops off a bit after Scherzer and Strasburg, continuing on to Tanner Roark (16-10, 2.83 ERA), Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57 ERA), and Joe Ross (7-5, 3.43 ERA), the Mets have a strong rotation that, in addition to the names mentioned above, can consist of Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo, and Robert Gsellman as well. While pretty much everyone who knows anything about the Mets knows that the rotation is injury prone, the fact that they have seven above-average options provides a good safety net.
The Nationals have the best starter, maybe even the second best, but two aces isn’t going to cut it against a team that has, when healthy, three legitimate Cy Young threats and four more that are more than capable of throwing a shutout on any given day.
Bullpen – Mets
The Nationals are without a closer. After losing out on Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman, the Nationals are left with limited options. The best free agent closer available is Greg Holland, but coming off Tommy John surgery he will be accompanied with many question marks. The best closer possibly available by trade seems to be David Robertson, however even he doesn’t stack up against Jeurys Familia, or even Adisson Reed for that matter.
If the season were to start today, the Nationals’ closer would be 32 year-old righty Shawn Kelley. As he has only recorded 11 saves in his career, his closing experience is very limited and his career 3.45 FIP is not exactly closer material. The other notables in the Nationals bullpen are righties Blake Treinen and Koda Glover, and lefties Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez.
The Mets, after Familia and Reed (who are almost enough to win this section for the Mets by themselves), they have righty Hansel Robles and lefties Josh Smoker and Josh Edgin. While both teams are trying to add another reliever before the season starts, it seems unlikely that the Nationals will bring enough relievers aboard to shift the balance of power out of the ‘pen.
Manager – Terry Collins
Dusty Baker has had a very long managerial career, posting a 1766-1571 (.529) record with the Giants (1993-2002), Cubs (2003-2006), Reds (2008-2013), and just finished his first year with the Nationals. He led them to a 95-67 record, but after losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS he was left with nothing to show for it. He led the Giants to the 2002 World Series, but lost that to the Angels.
Terry Collins has gone 925-925 (.500) in his career with the Astros (1994-1996), Angels (1997-1999), and Mets (2011-). While we constantly scathe him for his use of the bullpen, he took a team that had finished under .500 for four straight years to the World Series in 2015, and then to the playoffs again in 2016 despite countless injuries.
Both of these coaches are loved by their players and coaching staff, and while Baker’s long history and higher Win% might put him over the top, there is one number in particular that gives Terry Collins the edge. Both of these teams are currently trying to win a World Series, so these managers’ records in the postseason hold a lot of importance.
In the postseason, Dusty Baker has gone 19-26 (.422) while Terry Collins has gone 8-6 (.571). While your argument is probable that the sample size for Baker is much larger than Collins’, my rebuttal would be simply this: That .571 winning percentage Collins has was entirely recorded with this Mets team with very few differences. It is for these reasons that while comparing these two managers regular season history results in a very close race, the fact that these two teams are in win-now mode make their postseason records important.
There you have it! While the Mets leave the Nationals in the dust in the bullpen category, the Nationals are very close with their starting pitchers and manager. What do you think of my assessment? Comment below!
