Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
The Mets got swept by the Phillies this weekend.
It wasn’t all that fun, so let’s just get right into some silver linings before we look at downward trends for the team that now sits at just a game above .500 at 56-55.
3 Up
Taijuan Walker‘s Getting… Better
So, the downside is, Taijuan Walker still gave up three home runs Sunday, inflating his second half home run count to 10 in five starts. But the upside is, his last two starts have indicated he’s improving with each outing as he works on pitch selection and location.
Outside of Sunday’s three solo shots, Walker gave up just one hit and a walk. He lasted six innings for the first time since June 20, and he had batters chasing at pitches outside the zone more frequently than he had in any other start this year as batters swung at 36 percent of Walker’s pitches outside the strike zone.
He hasn’t thrown this many innings in a season since 2017, so we’ll see if this recent stretch truly is a wall or if he’s able to bust through it and help the rotation over the last 50-ish games.
Trevor May‘s Consistency
In a sweep, we sometimes need to look down into the depths of the team to find some positive trends. One is Trevor May after the All-Star break, including a three-strikeout inning versus the Phillies Sunday.
Since returning from the break, here’s May’s stat line: 10.1 IP, 2 ER (1.74 ERA), 5 H, 6 BB, 16 K
He allows about a base runner an inning, but he also strikes out the world with a 91st-percentile strikeout rate. He, along with Aaron Loup, has been one of the most consistent relievers on the team and is shaping up to be one of the better offseason acquisitions by the front office.
Miguel Castro Is Back On Track
Normally, I’d combine a couple bullpen pitchers into one general upward trend, but it’s really hard to identify a slate of things the team is doing positively (outside of, well, keeping a positive mindset). So let’s talk about Miguel Castro for a second.
The flame-throwing reliever had a rough go of it in late June and early July. That stretch coincided with the announcement of a ban on sticky stuff by Major League Baseball. But it also coincided with around when he was dealing with a neck injury while also being used pretty consistently by Luis Rojas.
Since the All-Star break, similar to Trevor May, Castro has been on point. He, too, has allowed just two earned runs, and Castro’s done that over 11.1 innings for a 1.59 ERA.
Control has always been Castro’s issue, and he’s walked just six people in that span while inducing a ton of weak contact (83.5 m.p.h. in July and 77.6 m.p.h. in August). He’s in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity over the course of the year and nudging on the top quarter of the league in hard-hit percentage. If he’s under control and teases hitters enough with pitches in the zone, he misses bats with his slider and changeup. He’s done that since the All-Star break, and the results have come.
3 Down
Getting A Hit While A Man Is On
Well, it was just pretty bad once again this series.
The Mets didn’t get a ton of men in scoring position at all against the Phillies, but when they did, they had a single hit. They didn’t have a hit in any of the other 15 at-bats. Overall on the seven-game road trip this last week, the Mets went 9-for-59 (.159) with men in scoring position.
They’re hitting .246 on the year–18th in the majors, which seems a bit wild–while men are in scoring position after this series, and that’s a number that dropped precipitously over the last week. However, actually scoring when guys are on? They’re dead last in the majors with 269 runs in 793 at-bats with RISP.
The Polar Bear Is Slumping
This isn’t meant to pick on him, cus he’s not the only one, but Pete Alonso is in a pretty tough slump.
He came out of the All-Star break firing with half-a-dozen home runs in the two weeks following his Home Run Derby championship. But over the course of the last seven days, he’s 2-for-24, including 0-for-his-last-21. He was 0-for-11 with two walks against the Phillies.
Pete, as always, was upbeat following Sunday’s game, noting that he’s hitting the ball hard, which is true (his hard hit percentage is just about normal compared to other months, as is his average exit velocity). It’s just ending up right at people. (You could see him smirk a bit after flying out to the warning track in his last at-bat Sunday as if he’s like “damn, AGAIN?”) He’s not chasing more, and he’s not whiffing more, either.
But you could look into some other metrics and realize he might just be getting under the ball. His launch angle is higher than it’s been in any month (and, naturally, so is his fly-ball percentage), and his barrel percentage is lower than it’s been all year. But his expected weighted on-base average is higher than it’s been in any month! So with regards to Pete, we should probably all try to match his optimism. Things will come around for him.
First Place Standing
The Mets held onto first place in the NL East for three months and did everything they could to give it up.
After this series with the Phillies, the Mets are now 2.5 games back of the Phillies and in third place. Third place! The Mets haven’t been in third place since the fifth game of the season when they were 2-3. They’re now in third while 56-55.
This team has struggled to really pull away from anyone in the division while they were in first for so long, so maybe they (read: the offense) need an “underdog” mindset or something to get a fire lit under them over the last 51 games.
