Luis Severino
Player Data: Age: 30 (02/20/1994), B/T: R/R
Traditional Stats: 31 GS, 11-7, 182 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 161 SO, 60 BB
Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 21.2 SO%, 7.3 BB%, 3.88 xERA, 4.21 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 2.1 fWAR, 1.6 bWAR
2024 Salary: $13 million
Grade: B
2024 Review
President of baseball operations, David Stearns, made a relatively low risk signing in the 2023 offseason by bringing in starting pitcher Luis Severino on a one-year deal worth $13 million. In return, the Mets got a player that was worth way more than that by season’s end. Severino was well worth every penny in 2024.
The right-handed starter was coming off a career-worst 2023 season where he battled injuries en route to only throwing 89 1/3 innings. He was one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues when he was able to actually pitch in 2023, posting a 6.65 ERA and 6.15 FIP. At age 29, Severino was at a crossroads in his career.
Backed by the most important factor, clean health, Severino bounced back in a huge way in 2024. He pitched 182 innings, the most he has thrown in a season since 2018; the last year he made the All-Star game. Across those innings, he produced like a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, posting a 3.91 ERA and 4.21 FIP. He then followed that up with a 3.24 ERA across 16 2/3 more innings during the postseason.
In 2024, Severino relied on getting softer contact, specifically on the ground. His 72nd percentile ground-ball rate was the third-highest of his career and the highest since 2017. This was coupled by an average exit velocity in the 88th percentile and a hard-hit ball rate in the 75th percentile. The 35.6% hard-hit rate against was a massive 3.1% points off his career average. Instead of being the overpowering, strikeout pitcher he was during his back-to-back All-Star seasons in 2017 and 2018, Severino morphed into a ground-ball inducer using his newly developed sinker.
Despite, overall, being an extremely solid season, it was not all perfect for the right-handed starter. In July, it seemed as if all the innings were slowly catching up to him, as he posted a 5.81 ERA across 26 1/3 innings. Luckily, he fought off the fatigue, and finished the year strong, with a slightly over 4.00 ERA in August and sub-4.00 ERA numbers the rest of the regular season and into the postseason. Additionally, Severino had concerning home/road splits, posting a 5.00 ERA across 84 2/3 away innings with an only 2.96 ERA at Citi Field.
The other aspect of Severino’s overall game that was concerning at points was his propensity to lose his control. His walk rate was right around the league average, but was almost a full percentage point higher than his career mark. Couple the occasional walk issues with his inability to generate strikeouts (21.2% strikeout rate; 34th percentile) and whiffs (22nd percentile), it was not exactly easy to get out of the trouble he would sometimes create for himself.
With all that being said, he still had a terrific season, especially from where he was just one year ago. All his numbers resemble a superb No. 3/serviceable No. 2 starter, and at the beginning of the season, before Sean Manaea really broke out, Severino was looked upon as the ace of the staff. The Mets could not have asked for much more from a signing that was viewed as a “prove-it” deal.
2025 Overview
As mentioned, Severino was only on a one-year deal in 2024. Given how strong he was, president of baseball operations David Stearns and staff decided to extend the qualifying offer to the former Yankees starter. The one-year deal worth $21.05 million needs to be accepted by the Severino before November 19 at 4:00 pm ET. If not, the Mets will receive a draft pick as compensation from Major League Baseball. Which, in itself, is great work by president of baseball operations, David Stearns.
Of course, and what is the most likely outcome, Severino will decline that qualifying offer and sign a longer term deal with either the Mets or another team in free agency. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the 30-year-old Severino is projected to sign a three-year deal worth $51 million. This would be an average annual value of $17 million while giving Severino some security, something the qualifying offer wouldn’t exactly net.
According to president of baseball operations, David Stearns, himself, the Mets are still very interested in bringing Severino back. In his most recent meeting with media, Stearns spoke on Severino, saying, “He had a great year, we want him back.” With New York needing to rebuild at least three slots in their rotation, a reunion with Severino would certainly make sense. However, only time will tell.
