Seth Lugo
Player Data: Age: 33 (11/17/89), B/T: R/R
Traditional Stats: 62 G, 65 IP, 3-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 69 SO, 18 BB
Advanced Stats: 108 ERA+, 25.4 K%, 6.6 BB%, 3.46 xERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.51 xFIP 0.7 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR
2022 Salary: $3,925,000
Grade: B –
2022 Review
When the Mets acquired Adam Ottavino last off-season, the veteran righty seemed to be a natural replacement for Jeurys Familia, while also alternating with Drew Smith and Trevor May as high-leverage relievers that can bridge games for both Seth Lugo and Edwin Diaz.
Lugo, highly considered to be one of the best relievers in the National League, thanks to a devastating curveball with an off-the-charts spin rate, got off to a shaky start to the 2022 season. He was seemingly replaced by Ottavino in manager Buck Showalter’s circle of trust but eventually established himself — once again — as one of New York’s more valuable high-leverage relievers.
This past season, Lugo turned in a 3.60 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 65 innings pitched. On the face of things, Lugo’s numbers were good, but not great for a high-end reliever in a walk year. In total, opposing hitters slashed .233/.290/.378 against him, good for an OPS of .668.
The biggest discrepancy in Lugo’s numbers, which can point to why he wasn’t able to replicate the same success that he had in 2018 and 2019, is that he ranked in the 99th percentile for his curve spin rate, but ranked in the 1st percentile for chase rate and 28th percentile for whiff rate. Lugo’s SO rate of 25.4% is the lowest in a season for the 33-year-old righty since 2018.
Lugo has a significant mixture of pitches in his arsenal, though, he mainly relies on his curveball and fastball, which are his two best. Opposing batters had .159 and .171 batting average against those two pitches, respectively. Where he struggled to maintain success was within his secondary pitches, as opposing batters hit .343 and launched five home runs against Lugo’s sinker — a pitch he used 21.9% of the time in 2022.
Those struggles and successes with his pitches help paint a picture of Lugo’s presumably last season in a Mets uniform. Lugo’s underlying and expected figures also shed some light on what was a relatively decent year for the veteran reliever. His xERA of 3.46 and xFIP of 3.51 are pretty solid numbers.
All in all, Lugo didn’t put together quite the performance that Mets fans had grown accustomed to seeing when he was summoned out of the bullpen. Though, he bounced back after a shaky start and was able to be a reliable option for Showalter and Co. in the second half of the season, but rarely was able to pitch in back-to-back games, as he’s managed to pitch with a partially torn UCL in his elbow since 2017.
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2023 Outlook
Lugo holding back tears following the Mets being eliminated from the playoffs by the San Diego Padres serves as a reminder that returning to New York was never a foregone conclusion.
The Mets selected Lugo in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB Draft and he’s been in the organization ever since. He got his first taste of the big leagues in 2016, as he stepped up in a pinch and pitched to a 2.67 ERA as a starter during his rookie campaign. He started a total of 18 games for the Mets in 2017, but has started just 13 games since then because of the torn UCL.
In any event, while Lugo showed a desire to maintain a starting role, he elevated himself into becoming one of the National League’s best relievers. He has still shown that same desire and since becoming a free agent, Lugo has attracted plenty of interest in free agency and, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the Dodgers, Padres and Nationals are all seemingly willing to give the righty a chance to start in 2023.
The Mets have re-signed Diaz and added the likes of David Robertson and Brooks Raley to the backend of their bullpen. While neither was acquired to directly replace Lugo, those additions, as well as several depth moves have made a reunion that much more unlikely.
