Rick Porcello

Player Data: Age: 31, B/T: R/R
Primary Stats: 12 G, 12 GS, 1-7, 59 IP, 5.64 ERA, 8.24 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 1.508 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 75 ERA+, 3.33 FIP, bWAR 0.1, fWAR 1.7

Free Agent: 2021
2020 Salary: $10M

Grade: D

2020 Review

Going into the 2020 season, the Mets figured to have a deep rotation, featuring Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, and a spot up for grabs, ultimately filled by rookie David Peterson. Before the season, the Mets sought to add veteran depth, to compete for the fifth spot as well as fortify the bullpen.

Rick Porcello was one of two veteran starters they brought in, along with Michael Wacha. Porcello was coming off a down year in 2019 with the Red Sox, during which he posted an ERA of 5.52 to go with his record of 14-12.

Syndergaard went down in spring training with an injury requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery. Stroman opted out during summer camp, which elevated Porcello to permanent rotation spot.

Unfortunately for the Mets, who took a gamble on Porcello hoping he could return to something close to his 2016 Cy Young performance, Porcello pitched very similarly to his 2019 form.

In 2020, Porcello allowed 74 hits over his 59 innings pitched. He lasted under five innings per start, often forcing Luis Rojas to go to his bullpen early. Porcello’s ERA of 5.64 was fifth worst in MLB among starters with 50 or more innings pitched.

Porcello’s highlight for the season came on September 20 against the Braves. In that game he pitched seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits, striking out 10 hitters. Porcello also threw a good game in Washington on August 5, going seven innings, letting up one run on five hits. His other ten starts were not nearly as effective, and the Mets posted a record of 2-10 in Porcello’s starts.

Porcello grew up a Mets fan in New Jersey, and often expressed his appreciation to have the opportunity to play for the team he rooted for as a child. He also seemed to be a good clubhouse presence. However, the $10 million the Mets paid for one year of Porcello’s services did not turn out to have a good return on investment.

2021 Outlook

Porcello is now a free agent after the 2020 season. It’s unlikely he will return to the Mets, as their organizational philosophy will likely change under new leadership, and they’ll be less inclined to bring in injured or struggling veterans on value contracts.

Since his Cy Young season in 2016, Porcello has had three bad seasons and one decent season in 2018, during which he went 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA. Porcello will be 32 years old next season, so chronologically he should still have plenty left in his tank.

However, coming off consecutive down years (ERAs of 5.52  in 2019 and 5.64 in 2020), it’s hard to imagine that Porcello will sign anywhere on a multi-year deal. He likely will sign somewhere for one season (probably for much less than his 2020 contract of $10 million), either as a candidate for a rotation or a bullpen piece.

The odds of his retuning to Queens with the Mets are low, as the Mets will likely turn elsewhere for rotation depth.