Brad Brach
Player Data: Age 34, B/T: R/R
Primary Stats: 14 G, 12.1 IP, 14 BB, 14 SO, 5.84 ERA, 8 H, 8 R, 2 HR
Advanced Stats: 24.1 BB%, 24.1 K%, 6.68 FIP, 6.92 xFIP, -0.2 fWAR
Free Agent: 2022
2020 Salary: $850,000
Grade: D
2020 Review
Brad Brach did not make his Mets debut until August 12 after a bout of COVID-19 to start the season. Given how poorly he performed, it could be said that he did not fully recuperate. Brach never got into any kind of positive groove. He was unreliable and regressed quickly as the season progressed.
He lost 3.5 mph on his fastball from 2019 to 2020, going from 93.9 to 90.4. To compensate, he increased his usage of his cutter drastically from 9.1% to 31.2%. In the years he had the most success, 2012-2018, he did not use the cutter except for a few times in 2017 with the Orioles.
Over his career, his fastball has been his most effective pitch and his cutter the least effective, so his 2020 results are predictable in light of his 37.2% fastball use (down from 53.6% in 2019 and 58.1% in 2018) and 31.2% cutter use.
Looking at his 2020 season as a whole, Brach might be the 2020-est player of all. Check out these bizarro splits, courtesy of Fangraphs. Brach walked five of 38 batters faced at home, and nine of 20 on the road, leading to ERAs of 1.86 (home) and 20.25 (away). Maybe his initials BB was a sign.
In August, he walked five of 35 batters and in September through October he walked nine of 23.
With the bases empty he allowed a .323 OBA and a .462 SLG, while with runners on he allowed a .481 OBP and a .176 SLG.
To say he was erratic would be the understatement of the year.
The bottom line is that he walked as many as he struck out, and a 24.1 BB% is disastrous in any season. It seemed like once he walked someone, he was almost guaranteed to walk the next two batters, too.
Only four of his walks all season were not followed by another walk. He had one sequence of two walks in a row, one sequence of three in a row, and an incredible sequence of four walks in a row. Here’s his Fangraphs play log, so you can see for yourself.
On a positive note, he struck out 24.1% of batters he faced, and only allowed eight hits in 12.1 innings, so if his control returns to his usual levels, he could be effective again.
Brach loves being a Met and that goes a long way. He picked up his player option so he will get another chance to show the fans what he can do in a more regular season.
2021 Outlook
Every season from 2012-2018, his ERA was under 3.80 and his career ERA is 3.39, so there is every possibility that he will provide reliable innings in low-leverage situations once again in 2021.
If he still struggles with the strike zone, expect the Mets to release him pretty quickly and turn over the job to one of their many right-handed relief options. Fully expect a much better Brach in the coming season, with more time to fully recover from the effects of COVID-19 and the crazy year that was and still is 2020.
