After laboring through weeks of desperate anticipation and enduring the torture of watching 27 other fan bases gleefully click onto their annual geeky and nerdy delights, it was finally our turn to open up the treasure trove that is the 2017 Mets ZiPS Projections. I couldn’t hardly wait to dig through it and sift through the incredible agony and ecstasy it was sure to provide.
For all you novices out there who still use things like calculators, Mr. Coffee and AM/FM radio, let me explain. ZiPS projections are the brain child of Dan Szymborski, self-anointed nerd of the people, who has an insanely genius appetite for statistics and baseball. Formerly of the Baseball Think Factory, his computer-based projections are now among the most popular in baseball and are prominently featured each year on FanGraphs.
You can ruminate over the full projections for Mets hitters and pitchers right here, but let me share their notes as well as my own observations followed by some from my staff.
Hitters
Only four Mets field players recorded a WAR figure of 2.0 or greater in 2016. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, six different Mets might be expected to reach that mark in 2017. Yoenis Cespedes (596 PA, 4.1 zWAR) receives the club’s top projection by a full win — and three of the club’s top-four forecasts overall belong to outfielders. One of those additional outfielders is Curtis Granderson (538, 2.3). The other isn’t presumptive right-field starter Jay Bruce (583, 1.2) but rather Michael Conforto (558, 3.0). Conforto, in other words, appears to be a markedly superior option.
Joe’s Thoughts…
The first thing that jumped out at me was not the 30 homers, .500 Slugging and 4.1 WAR that was projected for Yoenis Cespedes, I expected to see great numbers like that from Yo. What blew my mind was that Michael Conforto was projected to be the second best hitter on the Mets with a 3.0 WAR to go with 29 doubles, 24 homers and 80 RBI. I wish I hadn’t seen that because there’s no way in hell that Conforto gets those 558 plate appearances with Jay Bruce on the team, who by the way was the 14th ranked hitter on the Mets in WAR (1.2), just behind T.J. Rivera (1.4) and Jose Reyes (1.4). Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
I thought that Walker, Cabrera and Granderson were treated very fairly considering their ages and some regression. But you know what really bugged me and concerns me heading into this new season? The fact that we didn’t even have one of our regular hitters project to have a batting average higher than .266 (Cespedes). Couple that with all those sky-high strikeout rates and that spells trouble… The same kind of trouble we saw a lot of last season, especially with runners in scoring position.
They are also expecting a big-time regression in the form of a .316 OBP from Jose Reyes, not good if the plan is to put him at the top of the order. But on the bright side Lucas Duda had a very solid projection clubbing 20 homers, driving in 62 and posting a 123 OPS+ and .344 wOBA. I’ll take that from Duda Smash everyday plus Sundays. David Wright (.247-8-33) continues to sail off into the sunset. Fare thee well, oh Capitan.
Logan’s Thoughts…
I have always been an optimistic person, but in this case I strongly believe the Mets will hit for a higher average than these projections. Yoenis Cespedes will hit higher than .266 and have a far better on base percentage than .317. I also think Neil Walker will hit more than the projected 20 home runs and score much more than 65 runs. Asdrubal Cabrera will hit many more than 17 home runs (I’d estimate 20-25) and drive in many more than 63 runs. I like how Michael Conforto is projected to break out big with 24 home runs and 80 RBIs, however I think he will have a higher batting average than .251, probably somewhere in the .260-.280 range, maybe even higher. Lastly, I disagree with the projection for Lucas Duda. He is healthy, and I think he will far surpass the 20 home runs and 62 RBI projections. The Mets offense is deep and will put up many more runs than anyone is expecting.
Mike’s Thoughts…
One thing that immediately jumps out is the 114 OPS+ for Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce with just a 102 OPS+. Combine that with Conforto being a better defender and better baserunner and you have the reason why I want Conforto playing over Bruce. Another projection that jumps out at me is infielder T.J. Rivera and the slash line of .262/.299./364 projected. I believe that slash line is much closer to what he will probably hit than a ton of Mets fans would like to admit. The projection was much kinder to infield prospect Gavin Cecchini (.262/.316./378), whom I think ends up hitting better at the major league level than TJ.
Pitchers
The projections for the club’s most likely group of five starters don’t seem to be the sort one might expect from a team whose rotation produced the highest WAR figure in the majors last season. ZiPS has already called for the five likely members of the Nationals’ rotation to produce about 19 wins collectively; of the Cubs’ rotation, roughly 16 wins. Here: just 13. The principal causes appear to be both (a) general regression (which is probably inevitable for a team that finishes first in anything) and (b) the departure of Bartolo Colon.
With regard to the bullpen, it features something not unlike a relief ace in Jeurys Familia (76.0 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR), who receives not only the top WAR projection among the club’s relievers, but also the best adjusted ERA. Right-hander Addison Reed (69.1, 79, 0.8) also earns strong marks by both measures.
Joe’s Thoughts…
When I first skimmed through the pitching projections I thought that if Mets starting pitchers perform at the level I saw that there’s no way that they do not win 90 or more games. Now is that enough to win the National League East? That’s the $100,000 dollar question. You see the Washington Nationals project a lot better than the Mets do and they have the innings. But hey, that’s why they play the games right?
Noah Syndergaard could have his best season yet and could deliver one of those magical Dwight Gooden type seasons in 2017, that’s who they chose as his comp. While ZiPs has his WAR a little lower than last year’s league leading figure, he still comes in with a team leading 4.7.
Jacob deGrom and Steven Mtz seem to be in line for a couple of solid showings, but I must say I was disappointed to see Matt Harvey with such a pedestrian showing – too much Bruce Wayne and not enough Dark Knight. If the Mets are going to have the kind of year I think they are, they need 15+ wins from Harvey with a sub 3.00 ERA and a return to the dominance and swagger that gave him that edge on the mound.
As far as the bullpen goes, I had to laugh when I saw they had Jerry Blevins (2.97) ranked with the third best FIP on the staff behind Syndergaard and Addison Reed. A subliminal hint no doubt for Sandy Alderson. Naturally, Jeurys Familia ranked right up there as well, but you know who else was up there with an impressive 3.38 FIP? My boy Josh Smoker that I’ve been talking up all offseason, that’s who. Thank you, Dan Szymborski.
Logan’s Thoughts…
The Mets starting rotation produced the highest WAR last season, and they have only gotten better and healthier. Regression, as suggested by these predictions, is not in the cards. I’d say Noah Syndergaard‘s numbers are right on the money, excepting for his ERA which will be closer to or even lower than his projected FIP of 2.75. Jacob deGrom will start more than 26 games and have a sub-three ERA and will strike out 200 batters. Steven Matz‘s projections are fairly accurate, however I expect more than 24 starts out of him. Matt Harvey is interesting in that I think his 23 starts is pessimistically accurate, however he will pitch much better than a 3.80 FIP and 18.8 K%. Overall, I think these projections are in line with everyone else’s projections about the Mets pitching staff: They are vastly underrated and I expect them to out-perform any other staff in the league.
Mike’s Thoughts…
As we’ve covered many times here at MMO, the health of the Mets rotation is going to play a huge role in whether the team is successful or miss the playoffs. Unsurprisingly in the projections they have Noah Syndergaard leading the way with a 4.7 zWAR and interestingly have Dwight Gooden as his number one comp. The pitcher that they are down on that surprises me the most is Robert Gsellman who is coming off a great debut, but they have him with a 4.08 FIP after posting a 2.63 FIP in 44.2 ML innings. The projections do like relievers Hansel Robles (107 ERA+, 27.4 K percentage) and Josh Smoker (104 ERA+, 30.1 K percentage). One of the minor league arms they have being useful that I believe is being overlooked right now is righty Corey Taylor. Flashed a mid 90’s fastball with a sharp slider in the AFL while posting a 1.77 ERA and allowing only two home runs in 71 regular season pro innings.
