Matt Harvey, SP
Bats/Throws: R/R
DOB: March 27, 1989 (27 on Opening Day)
Contract Status: First year arbitration eligible ($4.3 million salary)
2015 Recap
Matt Harvey was not at the level of dominance that he was before his elbow surgery in late 2013, but he wasn’t that far off either, he pitched as well as you could have hoped for a pitcher in his situation.
For the year, Harvey tossed 189.1 regular season innings, posting a 2.71 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 3.24 xFIP. That was significantly worse than his 2.26 ERA in 2013, but still fantastic considering he hadn’t pitched in an MLB game in almost a year and a half. His walk rate remained incredibly low at 1.76 per nine innings while his strikeout rate of 8.94 remained quite good.
Harvey clearly lost a little something due to the surgery. There is no denying it. He simply wasn’t as sharp with his command as he was in 2013. But all things considered, his season could have gone a lot worse. Even with the massive layoff, he remained one of baseball’s most elite pitchers. He pitched an unprecedented number of innings for a Tommy John patient. You could not have asked for much more. Or as Ken Rosenthal put it, it was historically the greatest season ever for any pitcher coming back in his first year from Tommy John surgery.
2016 Projections
Steamer: 203 IP, 3.08 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 9.17 K/9, 1.94 BB/9
Marcel: 155 IP, 2.96 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
ZiPS: 170 IP, 2.91 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 8.51 K/9, 2.17 BB/9
Look, none of these projection systems are nearly sophisticated enough to count on Harvey building arm strength from last season, which I think most of us expect he will do. Harvey was able to bring his ‘A’ game in some important postseason starts, but he was less successful as the season wound down. He pitched to a 3.99 ERA over the last month of the season (although his peripherals point to that as being bad luck). He seemed to tire more quickly and be more vulnerable in the seventh and eighth innings than he has been in the past.
Is it reasonable to expect Harvey to become one of the top three starters in baseball again? No. The only pitcher you can really expect that from is Clayton Kershaw. However, I do think that Harvey’s 2015 will be sort of the floor for him going forward. There were no glaring indicators that suggest Harvey over performed (or underperformed), but having over 200 innings behind him will only help him in not only avoiding another UCL tear but also in staying sharp later in games and seasons.
Expect another stellar year from the Mets’ ace.
