Michael Conforto, LF
Bats/Throws: L/R
DOB: March 1, 1993 (23)
Contract Status: Pre-Arb Eligible (Free Agent after 2021)
2015 Recap
A little over a year after being drafted, Michael Conforto was called up with the expectations that he would turn around an ailing Mets lineup. What the Mets got in Conforto was a dynamic middle of the order hitter who many now think could become a star.
Despite playing a grand total of 133 minor league games, none of which came in Triple-A, Conforto saw immediate success and ended the season with a .270/.335/.506 batting line in 56 games. During that span, Conforto hit nine home runs in just 194 plate appearances. To give you some context on how good that was, over a full 600 plate appearances, that extrapolates out to about 28 home runs.
Conforto’s 134 wRC+ leaves a lot to be excited about. With all the inexperience, all the pressure he was under, and all the hype, Conforto had many reasons not to succeed, but he did anyway.
Even though Conforto only appeared in 56 games last season, he was worth 2.1 Wins Above Replacement according to both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. He far exceeded expectations both at the plate and on defense, giving us a Mets position player prospect to get excited about for the first time in a while.
2016 projections
Marcel – 297 PAs, .270/.333/.468, 11 HR
Steamer – 557 PAs, .260/.321/.435, 19 HR, 2.1 fWAR
ZiPS – 610 PAs, .255/.320/.466, 26 HR, 3.2 fWAR
It’s hard for these projection systems to try to project out someone who has played so little at both the major league level and in the minors. After all, he’s still only received 783 professional plate appearances.
Conforto’s success last season wasn’t BABIP-driven (.297), so he probably wasn’t just getting lucky with cheap hits. He also hit the ball hard over 40 percent of the time, well above the league average of 28.6 percent.
I don’t think there is any doubt after watching Conforto last season that he has a sky-high ceiling at the plate. He is still quite young and unseasoned, but he has the advanced approach of a hitter in his thirties. He really exemplifies exactly the type of hitters Sandy Alderson and his staff have been trying to develop the last few years.
Conforto is a very smart hitter, which I think makes him far less likely to fall victim to the so-called “sophomore slump.” A season like what the Marcel system projects (although over a full season) is the expectation from me. That’s a high bar to set, but a hitter like Conforto can do it.
