Here at MMO, we’ve been previewing specific areas of the 2015 Mets. So far, we’ve covered the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the catcher position. Today, we continue with part four: the infield.
Lucas Duda
Lucas Duda thrust himself into the conversation of being one of the National League’s best power hitters last year. His 30 home runs were third in the NL and his .228 ISO was fourth. All of this came after a six week battle with Ike Davis for the starting first base job. Now, for the first time in his career, Duda’s job is locked up going into the season.
The 29 year-old Duda did everything the Mets needed on offense last year. His .253/.349/.481 slash line more than exceeded expectations, as did his 136 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR. His 2014 season now has him considered for sure one of the top ten first basemen in baseball and possible one of the top five offensively.
All of this is great. However, some will look at the overall numbers Duda put up last year and argue that he should play 155 games per year. As I’ve argued repeatedly, falling in love with the idea of having a 155 game per year first baseman will cause the Mets to lose out on a lot of productivity at the position. Despite Duda’s fantastic overall numbers, he still slashed .180/.265/.252 against left-handed pitching. For his career, his numbers are only slightly better. He simply can’t hit left-handed pitching.
Terry Collins seems determined to ignore this and play Duda against lefties this season. For that reason, I just don’t see his numbers going up significantly from last season. Unless Collins wises up, 25 percent of games at first base might as well be played by Omar Quintanilla.
Daniel Murphy
If there is one player on the Mets who is a sure thing for this season, it’s Daniel Murphy. For the past three seasons, Murphy’s numbers have been basically the same. .290/.330/.410 is more than solid for a second baseman. Last season, the average second baseman hit .250/.307/.364 (88 wRC+), so Murphy is significantly above average with the bat.
Interestingly, the past three years have seen Murphy’s offensive and defensive numbers tick up a bit. Three years ago, his wRC+ was at 103, and has since climbed to 110. His UZR three years ago was -10.2 runs at second base. Last year, it was -5.6 in about the same sample size.
Murphy is definitely a top ten second baseman and there is no reason to believe he’s going anywhere on that list. In fact, since it’s a walk year, there is only more motivation for Murphy to exceed expectations.
Wilmer Flores
After so much speculation in the offseason, the Mets didn’t end up making a change at shortstop, so it will be Wilmer Flores playing the position to start the season.
Despite the disappointment over not acquiring Troy Tulowitzki (yet), the Mets still have a very solid option at short. Flores struggled for the first part of 2014, with a batting average hovering around .220, but was then able to turn it on the last two months of the season, slashing .266/.306/.426 with five home runs, ten doubles, and a triple in 49 games, 46 of which he started. Compare that to the .251/.306/.363 line that all MLB shortstops had last year and you’ve got a very good hitter for the position.
If Flores can continue this production, shortstop is set, and considering he is only 23 years old, it might get even better.
Two of the readily-available projection systems — ZiPS and Steamer — are showing mixed results for Flores this season. Steamer has him at .248/.286/.398 (94 wRC+) while ZiPS (usually the more pessimistic system) has him at .266/.300/.428 (106 wRC+) with 17 home runs, which would be more than enough for Flores to lock his spot down permanently.
David Wright
There is no one more important to the Mets’ 2015 hopes than David Wright. The 32 year-old had, by his standards, a terrible season last year, hitting around league average and getting hurt. This came after two years of being among the best ten (arguable among the best five) position players in baseball. However, last year, hampered by a shoulder injury and just not being himself, it was a vastly different story.
Wright posted a 100 wRC+ last season, 16 points lower than even his disappointing 2011 season. His eight home runs were the fewest of his career, despite playing in 134 games. His eight stolen bases were also the fewest since his rookie year. All in all, it was no doubt the worst season of Wright’s 11-year career.
Will he bounce back? His shoulder injury and his overall body of work, which has him on pace to make the Hall of Fame, lead me to think he will. There are, of course, those who will ignore the shoulder injury to make Wright’s contract extension (and thus the front office) look bad, but you have to consider it. The truth is, Wright played for three months with a shoulder injury, and admitted that it forced him to overcompensate by altering his swing.
Wright’s spring training numbers aren’t spectacular but they have something that he really lacked last season: power, Wright is slugging .500 with four home runs and a double. Wright has also shown he can drive the ball to right field, which has been an indicator of where he is throughout his career. I’m predicting a big bounce-back year for him.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter @connor_obrien97. And make sure to keep checking back here for more previews of the 2015 Mets season.
