Of the 16 free agents who rejected their qualifying offers this winter, 10 of them still remain unsigned as December draws to a close.
Wei-Yin Chen, Orioles
Chris Davis, Orioles
Ian Desmond, Nationals
Dexter Fowler, Cubs
Yovani Gallardo, Rangers
Alex Gordon, Royals
Howie Kendrick, Dodgers
Ian Kennedy, Padres
Daniel Murphy, Mets
Justin Upton, Padres
Any new team signing these players will forfeit their first-round pick in next June’s First Year Player Draft. Should a team have a protected pick in the top 10, they would forfeit their next-highest pick. The former team gains a supplemental draft pick as compensation, in between the first and second rounds.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports cited a couple of reasons as to why the market for these players have been so slow to develop. For one, the usual big spenders like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels are taking a very fiscal approach now. Also, there are an extraordinarily high number of teams that are tanking like the Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves to name a few.
Additionally, there are a lot of strong options still available in trade, especially for outfielders and starting pitchers.
One factor that might be overlooked is just how reluctant teams now are in giving up their first round draft picks as compared to just two seasons ago.
Sure, there’s always been some hesitancy in forfeiting that pick, but it appears to me that more and more teams are now putting a greater emphasis in keeping their minor league systems stocked with the high-upside talent typically found in those first two rounds of the draft.
While teams that see themselves as a player or two away from a championship will always be willing to roll the dice on a difference-maker, that may not be the case for complimentary players like Dexter Fowler or Daniel Murphy.
It will be interesting to see how this ultimately plays out. Will players like Ian Desmond and Alex Gordon end up signing for far less than initial projections? I wonder if this current Qualifying Offer system will continue beyond the current Collective Bargaining Agreement which expires after the 2016 season.
