The Mets’ highest-ranked prospects were Gilbert and Williams at No. 52 and 54, respectively — contrary to MLB Pipeline, which put Williams at No. 45 and Gilbert at No. 53.

The Mets acquired Gilbert last summer in the Justin Verlander trade, along with Ryan Clifford. He was a first-round pick by the Astros in the 2022 draft. Gilbert, who had only been putting up a modest .713 OPS for Houston’s Double-A team, broke out with a .325 average and .984 OPS in 35 games for Double-A Binghamton. Between three levels and two organizations, Gilbert posted a .289/.381/.487 batting line last season. He swatted 18 home runs in the process.

FanGraphs mentioned in its write-up that Gilbert had surprised the writers with how well he’s performed, particularly in the power department.

“Before the 2022 draft, Gilbert was written up here as a potential top-of-the-order catalyst who I thought was more likely to be a good fourth outfielder due to modest power,” Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote. “So far in pro ball, Gilbert is performing more like a do-everything player with a balanced hit and power skill set, and just enough center field defense to project there in the big leagues.”

Gilbert is only 5-foot-9, but FanGraphs noted his plus speed in the outfield, in addition to his ability to attack pitches low in the zone. Gilbert is one of the Mets’ most well-rounded prospects, thus earning the nod of the team’s best prospect from the FanGraphs crew.

Coming two spots later was Williams, who’s also listed as a center fielder. Williams was drafted as a shortstop, and has primarily played there so far in the Mets’ minor league system. But he played 180 innings in center last season, and it’s possible the Mets see him as a fit there going forward. FanGraphs wrote that “Williams simply mishandles the baseball too much to be a good shortstop right now and doesn’t have a ‘from the hole’ cannon.” The write-up compared his defense to Roman Quinn and Billy Hamilton, players who once had similar scouting reports as Williams and ended up in center field.

A first-round pick in 2022, Williams had a strong season for Single-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn. He posted a .422 OBP — higher than his .410 slugging percentage — in 79 Single-A games, then batted .299 with a .451 OBP in 36 High-A games. He added some power during his stint with Brooklyn too, hitting seven home runs with a .567 slugging percentage. He walks nearly as often as he strikes out, and had more walks than strikeouts with Brooklyn (33 to 32). He struggled upon his call-up to Binghamton, but only in a six-game sample.

“It’s too soon to call him a do-everything, five-tool prospect, but Williams isn’t far off, ” Longenhagen and Taruskin wrote. “He has a sizable hole in his swing at the top of the strike zone, which is atypical of a compact hitter like this. But his feel for the strike zone is excellent, his hitting hands are super explosive, and Jett can adjust to breaking balls by bending in his lower half in a way that is rare even for good hitters.”

Then, coming in near the bottom of the list at No. 96 was Rodriguez, a Dominican prospect the Mets acquired in the Tommy Pham trade. Rodriguez is only 17 years old, but FanGraphs said he has an “unusually high floor for a teenage prospect thanks to his defense and bat-to-ball ability.”

Longenhagen and Taruskin cited Rodriguez’s strong 2023 season in the Dominican Summer League as a reason for his increased stock. At the time of the trade, he’d batted .246 with a .740 OPS in 38 games. In 13 games for the Mets’ affiliate, he batted .422 with a 1.247 OPS and 11 walks compared to only four strikeouts. He put up a .411 OBP and .878 OPS overall. FanGraphs wrote that his contact rates were high and chase rates were low, which profiles well going forward. He “tracks pitches with bird-of-prey precision” and can defend well at shortstop, too.

The last Mets prospect in the top 100 was breakout pitcher Christian Scott. A former Florida Gator, Scott was drafted by the Mets in the fifth round of the 2021 draft. He had modest success in 2022 before rising to another level in 2023. He put up a 2.28 ERA in six starts for Brooklyn, then a 2.47 ERA in 12 starts for Binghamton. He struck out 11 per nine innings compared to a minuscule 1.2 walks per nine.

FanGraphs mentioned that his velocity was up to an average of 94-95 mph. He has “violent” mechanics with a “pretty nasty head whack,” but the writers said they feel good about projecting him as a mid-rotation starter in the future. He’s also tweaked his changeup and turned it into more of a splitter that sits in the mid-to-high 80s.

Not making the list were two other prospects the Mets acquired last summer, Clifford and Luisangel Acuña. Both were placed in MLB Pipeline’s ranking, with Acuña all the way up at No. 66. In any case, the Mets have significantly boosted their farm system with the trades they made in 2023.

Former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong was ranked at No. 20, despite going 0-for-14 in his debut for the Cubs last season. Right above him at No. 19 was River Ryan — brother of former Mets prospect Ryder Ryan, who the Mets acquired for Jay Bruce in 2017.

Jackson Holliday was FanGraphs’ No. 1 prospect in baseball, and was the only prospect to get a future value grade of 70.

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Just as time has allowed some Mets fans to appreciate how good Carlos Beltrán was in New York, perhaps Hall of Fame voters will take a similar stance when taking into account the entirety of his career—especially what he did on the field.

In his first time appearing on the ballot in 2023, Beltrán got 46.5 percent. While there’s plenty of ground to make up, it bodes well for an eventual election.

The 1999 American League Rookie of the Year emerged on the national stage in the 2004 postseason, carrying the Astros to the brink of the World Series. He parlayed that performance into a long-term deal with the Mets. He arrived in New York with tremendous expectations, struggled through his first year, but finished as the best center fielder in franchise history.

The 2006 season is the defining one of his Mets career, for better or worse. He matched the team’s home run mark at 41, established personal highs in homers, runs batted in, doubles, and OPS+, and claimed his first Gold Glove Award.

During his 20 years in the big leagues, he spent the most time with the Mets. In those six-plus seasons, Beltrán showcased a five-tool ability: becoming the NL’s best defensive player at his position, making five All-Star teams, stealing 100 bases, hitting 149 homers in 3,133 at-bats and slashing .280/.369/.500.

He finished his career with stints in San Francisco, St. Louis, the Bronx, Texas, and Houston.

He had gained respect league-wide for his playing ability and baseball acumen. It’s what led him to be hired as the Mets manager in late 2019. But it was soon after he took the job that his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal two years before became evident. The two sides parted in the wake of that controversy. But re-hired for a new role within the Mets organization, he is rehabilitating whatever damage has been done to his reputation and that time passed may give voters a chance to take a fuller look at a long, successful playing career.

The Case for

If we’re going solely on WAR, Carlos Beltrán is the eighth-best major league center fielder of all time. He’s better than current Hall of Famers Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn, and Duke Snider.

Beltrán is one of six players in MLB history with at least 1,500 RBI, 1,000 extra-base hits, 1,000 walks, and 300 stolen bases. Included in that list are Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, and Tris Speaker. That’s pretty lofty company, as is being among five ever to hit 400 home runs, tally 2,500 hits, and register 300 stolen bases. Beltrán is alongside Bonds, A-Rod, Mays, and Dawson.

Try, if you will, to put that 2006 NLCS Game 7 at-bat aside. His postseason numbers are terrific: a 1.021 OPS in 256 plate appearances with 16 homers and 42 RBIs. That, and his October 2004 is among the greatest months any playoff performer has ever had.

To mitigate the participation in the cheating with Houston, you could say Beltrán already established this Hall of Fame-worthy resume before it all happened.

The Case Against

But the mere involvement in it, to some, can be cited as the reason to be held out. No matter what you think of the act or how involved you think he was, it is a situation that hovers over him.

Besides that, a main argument against him is that he never won an MVP. He was in the discussion in 2006, but ultimately came in fourth place. He was in the top 10 just twice. Award voting might be skewed now as we garner more appreciation for different statistical measures, yet these results still hold value in the minds of voters.

Another is the “bold type.” Beltrán never led his league in a single offensive category. He was among the NL’s top five in homers twice and was a runner-up in doubles once. Despite a balanced set of skills, 450 home runs and 2,750 hits with a batting average below .280 doesn’t rise to the level of Hall of Famer.

Final Thoughts

Has enough time passed that those who vote for the Hall of Fame will collectively come to terms with the blemish on his baseball career? It’s hard to say. No matter how you feel about that way of thinking, that a player’s viability for the Hall improves despite an unchanged resume, it is a factor. But of course, some voters don’t think he was a Hall of Famer regardless.

However you look at it, Beltrán has some obstacles to overcome if he’s going to be inducted. The cheating is nothing to take lightly, but it shouldn’t keep him out. His on-field abilities outweigh them. Carlos Beltrán is a Hall of Famer…and he may be wearing a Mets hat on his plaque.

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With the Mets re-signing Brandon Nimmo in December, the center field picture in the NL East remains largely unchanged from the 2022 season. The only team in the division entering 2023 with a new centerfielder is the Marlins, who will shift Jazz Chisholm Jr. to that spot after acquiring a surplus of infielders. While the NL East doesn’t necessarily boast a true superstar at the position, there is some solid depth throughout the division.

No. 5 Victor Robles, WSH

Once ranked as high as the second-best prospect in the sport by Baseball Prospectus, Victor Robles finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2019 and played a key role in helping the Nationals win the World Series. However, Robles has failed to replicate that level of production ever since. He hit just .224/.273/.311 with six homers and 10 doubles, giving him a career-worst 64 wRC+. Robles also set career lows in walk percentage, ISO, wOBA, xwOBA, and xBA.

While his offense was subpar, Robles’ speed and defense were still solid. He racked up 12 DRS and registered a 4.8 uZR, with his 6 OAA ranking in the 90th percentile of MLB. Robles also showed off his impressive arm strength, ranking in the 96th percentile in that category. His 28.7 feet-per-second ranked in the 86th percentile in that category and he swiped 15 bases in 19 tries.

Even though Robles is coming off another disappointing season, it’s worth noting that he’s only 25 years old and has time to turn his career around. With the Nationals firmly in rebuild mode, he seems to be in line for plenty of playing time for the foreseeable future.

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 4 Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA

After a solid showing in his rookie season, Jazz Chisholm came out of the gates firing in 2022. In 60 games, he hit a strong .254/.325/.535 (139 wRC+) with 14 homers, 10 doubles, 4 triples, and 12 steals. While he was still striking out at a high rate, Chisholm’s walk rate increased from 6.7% to 8.7%, his ISO went from .177 to .282, and his 2.6 fWAR eclipsed the 1.9 mark he put up in 124 games the year prior. As a result, Chisholm became the first Bahamian-born player to be named to the All-Star Game. However, he was placed on the injured list in June with a back strain and missed the rest of the season after suffering a stress reaction in his lower back.

The biggest issue holding Chisholm back in these rankings is that he has never played an inning in the outfield at the professional level. There’s a chance he rises on this list, but there’s also a chance he isn’t playing the position by the end of the first half. Chisholm should be helped by his elite footspeed of 29.2 feet-per-second and he was the one who approached Skip Schumaker about making the shift to the outfield. One way or another, it will be interesting to see how this situation plays out this season.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3 Brandon Marsh, PHI

Brandon Marsh was in the midst of a disappointing season with the Angels when he was shipped to Philadelphia for catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe. While Marsh still isn’t a masher with the bat, he made considerable strides with the Phillies, hitting .288/.319/.453 with three homers, nine doubles, and two triples in 138 plate appearances. While his strikeout rate was still high, Marsh’s hard-hit rate rose from 36.5% to 41.8%, his line-drive rate went from 22.7% to 33%, and his ground-ball rate fell from 43.6% to 37.4%.

Defensively, Marsh is solid in center, though he posted better numbers in left field. Still, he ranked in the 93rd percentile for OAA and his arm strength improved after moving positions. Marsh has always been lauded for his speed, and his 28.9 feet-per-second ranked in the 89th percentile in that category. With a full season in Philly ahead of him, expect the 25-year-old to post solid numbers in 2023.

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

No. 2 Michael Harris II, ATL

When the Braves called up Michael Harris on May 28th, they were just 22-24 and facing an 8.5-game deficit in the NL East. After Harris debuted, Atlanta went 79-37 (.681) and as a result, claimed their fifth straight division crown. Harris was phenomenal in his rookie season, hitting .297/.339/.514 (136 wRC+) with 19 homers, 27 doubles, 20 steals, and 4.8 fWAR in 114 games. Harris won NL Rookie of the Year and finished 13th in MVP voting. The only knock against Harris’ game was that he walked in just 4.8% of his plate appearances and had a 39% chase rate, while he struck out in 24.3% of his at-bats. His .361 BABiP, 55.2% ground-ball rate, and 17.9% fly-ball rate suggest he may regress a little, but he’s still projected to be a well-above-average bat.

Defensively, Harris was impressive, recording 4.9 uZR while racking up 7 OAA and 8 DRS. Statcast ranked him in the 92nd percentile for OAA, the 89th percentile for outfield jump, and the 95th percentile for arm strength. Harris’ 29.4 feet-per-second put him in the 95th percentile of sprint speed, and he was only caught stealing twice. Even if his bat regresses a little bit, the 21-year-old looks to be a lock to stay near the top of this list for years to come.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

1. Brandon Nimmo, NYM

Brandon Nimmo finally was able to play a full season without a trip to the injured list, and he had the best season of his career. In a career-high 151 games, Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 (134 wRC+) with 16 homers, 30 doubles, 64 RBIs, and 5.4 fWAR. While his 10.5% walk rate is the lowest mark he’s recorded, Nimmo cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 17.2%, making this the first time that mark has been below 20% over a full season. Once plagued by his struggles against lefties, Nimmo hit .264/.358/.428 in 234 plate appearances against southpaws, which was one of the best marks on the team. His 50.4% ground-ball rate suggests that there’s still room to improve for the 29-year-old, but he’s projected to excel with the bat again in 2023.

Defensively, Nimmo proved once again that he can man centerfield every day. He posted a career-best 6 OAA, which Statcast ranks in the 90th percentile. While his arm strength still isn’t elite, Nimmo’s 88.1 miles-per-hour average throw represents a solid increase from the 84.6 he posted in 2021. While he only stole three bases this year, Nimmo’s average sprint speed increased to a career-high 28.9 feet-per-second, which is good for the 86th percentile in MLB. Now locked in on an eight-year contract, expect Nimmo to be a mainstay at the top of the Mets’ batting order and be a catalyst for the team for years to come.

Shortstop
Second Base
Catcher
Third Base
First Base

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Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning, Mets fans!

In the aftermath of a Friday afternoon trade that sent Luis Arraez to the Marlins, general manager Kim Ng said that Jazz Chisholm will move to center field. This move is interesting in that Chisholm has only ever played in the middle infield in his career, but with Arraez set to take over second base and Jean Segura and Jon Berti also entrenched in the infield, Chisholm will be tasked with playing center field. Chisholm boasts impressive sprint speed and defensive metrics at second base and shortstop in his career, so the Marlins are hopeful that he can handle this transition with ease.

According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, Chisholm told the team regarding this switch that he would “go out, play the position and win a Gold Glove.”

Latest MLB News

The Twins traded reigning American League batting champion Luis Arraez to the Marlins in exchange for pitcher Pablo Lopez and prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio.

Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Dodgers are hiring Chris Woodward to be a special assistant in the front office. Woodward spent time as the Dodgers’ third-base coach from 2016-2018 but was most recently manager of the Rangers before getting fired this past season.

The Diamondbacks announced that Ronnie Gajownik will manage their High-A affiliate, the Hillsboro Hops. Gajownik makes history as the first female manager at the High-A level.

The Pirates designated Miguel Andujar for assignment to make room on the roster for Andrew McCutchen.

Former Met Kevin Pillar announced on Twitter that he is joining the Braves. He spent most of last year with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate.

The Cardinals signed catcher Tres Barrera to a minor league contract.

Latest on MMO

Brian Wright continued MMO’s list of the worst free-agent signings in Mets history, ranking Jed Lowrie number five all-time.

Rivkaa Boord opined that the Mets are making a mistake with their bullpen approach this offseason.

On This Date in Mets History

2002: The Mets completed two big trades with the Rockies and Brewers that saw the Mets trade Benny Agbayani and Todd Zeile to Colorado and Lenny Harris, Glendon Rusch, and Alex Ochoa to Milwaulkee. In all, the Mets received Ross Gload, Craig House, Jeromy Burnitz, Lou Collier, Jeff D’Amico, and Mark Sweeney.

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This offseason, we’re looking at the Mets’ history with free agency. The No. 3-ranked entry was Billy Wagner — a dominant closer beginning in 2006. Next up was another member of that ’06 club, who remains still under-appreciated for his standout and steady play at the plate and in the field. 

He parlayed an astounding 2004 playoff performance into a free-agency bidding war.

New Mets general manager Omar Minaya, like other team executives, was enamored with the mastery Carlos Beltrán demonstrated on the October stage as a Houston Astro. It included eight homers, 20 hits, a .435 batting average, and an on-base percentage above .500. All this came following a stellar regular season that saw him eclipse 30 home runs for the first time in his still-young career and surpass the 100-RBI barrier for the fifth time in his six years.

Who was to fault the Mets to froth over the prospect of a 27-year-old switch-hitting, five-tool center fielder teamed with a pair of up-and-coming infielders named David Wright and José Reyes along with fellow free-agency pickup Pedro Martinez?

For fans who suffered through a third straight season well below .500, no price — not even $119 million over seven years — was too much. Beltrán went on to average 30 homers, 108 RBIs, and 39 doubles (per 162 games). Before surgery wreaked havoc on his knee, he was among the most successful and timely baserunners, stealing around 20 a year at an 84 percent clip.

But the most downplayed aspect of his well-rounded talents was his defense. Beltrán’s range made him an elite center fielder and a three-time Gold Glove recipient. He got to would-be hits gracefully, not acrobatically. His speed and his knack for reading the ball off hitters’ bats afforded him the ability to glide over to catches more often than sliding.

He did all that after a rough debut year in which he set career lows in just about every major offensive category, including batting average (.266), homers (16), runs driven in (78), and stolen bases (17).

He rebounded in terrific fashion. Beltrán etched his name into franchise history when he equaled the Mets’ single-season home run mark at 41, a record that would stand for 13 years. He also drove in a career-high 116 runs as New York cruised to the NL East title. He finished fourth in MVP voting but was clearly the most valuable Met with an 8.2 WAR that was easily the highest on the team.

New York’s consecutive end-of-season unravelings were not the fault of their center fielder. Beltrán was one of the few Mets who never caved under the late-season pressure. He tried to right a sinking ship in September ’07 by launching eight homers and driving in 27 runs (more than he had in any other month that year). In September 2008, he hit .344 with an on-base percentage of .440 and an OPS of 1.086.

Injury-riddled 2009 and 2010 seasons preceded another All-Star-caliber year in 2011 (with a 151 OPS+) before being dealt to the San Francisco Giants at the trading deadline for pitching prospect Zack Wheeler.

Carlos Beltrán would (and should) make most Mets’ all-time starting lineups, but most fans can only remember that one pitch — a patented wicked curveball from Adam Wainwright — in October 2006.

The context of when it took place makes it the moment we most associate with Beltrán. To use it as a defining moment is an oversimplification. A wide-lens view of his Mets career proves — despite the grand expectations laid upon him from the start—that while he was understated, he wasn’t an underachiever. Regardless of his NLCS-ending strikeout or the circumstances that led to his abrupt managerial career, Beltrán’s Mets legacy should be as the best center fielder this team has had and among the most significant free-agent signings.

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Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Mets general manager Billy Eppler was a guest on The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman recently to talk about the important upcoming free agent class for New York. There’s no doubt that Eppler will have his hands full this offseason with the Mets having up to 14 free agents including key contributors Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, and Jacob deGrom.

You could argue that Nimmo is the Mets’ most important free agent this offseason and certainly their top position player that will hit the open market. Nimmo isn’t just the Mets’ top position player to hit free agency, but he’s also clearly the top outfielder aside from Aaron Judge. That means the Mets’ outfield options were a hot topic on the podcast.

“Can Starling (Marte) still play center field? We believe he can and that opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield,” Eppler said.

Starling Marte played right field 116 times for the Mets in 2022 after having never played there before in the big leagues. It was also the first season in Marte’s career that he didn’t start a game in center field.

“That said, it’s not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination. Brandon (Nimmo) knows how we feel and we know how he feels too, perhaps something can be accomplished there, but we do have the ability to slide Marte over to center,” Eppler said.

Marte, 34, had a fantastic first season with the Mets hitting .292/.347/.468 with 24 doubles, five triples, 16 home runs, and 63 RBIs in 118 games. He stole only 18 bases and was caught stealing nine times a year after stealing 47 bases with only five caught stealing. The 136 wRC+ he posted this year was a career-high, though his negative BsR and so-so defense factored in had him at 3.0 fWAR, down from his monster 5.5 fWAR season in 2021.

The biggest issue for Marte during the 2022 season was his being 100% when he was on the field and missing the final stretch of the season. Marte missed a month at the end of the regular season after getting hit by a pitch that broke the middle finger on his right hand. He did return from that injury to play in the Wild Card Series.

However, the quad injury Marte suffered early in the season, clearly changed his game as a base stealer and how much ground he could cover in the outfield. For the first time since his debut season in 2016 Marte was a negative defender by outs above average at -2 in 2022. The more detailed outlook shows that he had difficulty moving laterally and coming in on balls, receiving negative scores in each area. Marte’s overall issue on defense was likely due to a career-low 28.0 ft/s sprint speed that I’m sure the lingering quad issue played a role in.

With the possibility of moving Marte to center, let’s take a quick look at what the corner outfield market looks like after Judge. Joc Pederson, David Peralta, Trey Mancini, Joey Gallo, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, and Mitch Haniger lead the group that also features Ben Gamel, Adam Duvall, Corey Dickerson, Robbie Grossman, and Tyler Naquin.

Given the free agent market and the importance of Nimmo in center field and at the plate, the best option would likely be to re-sign Brandon and keep Marte in right field.

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