Series Preview: Mets Open Road Trip Against Struggling Rays

A return home for the New York Mets (16-15) was expected to be a good thing for a group, but the team lost four of seven against a pair of NL Central foes in the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs. It did end on a positive note, however, as Francisco Lindor’s walk-off hit gave them a 7-6 win to cap off their series against the Cubs on Thursday. The Mets will now go on the road to meet the Tampa Bay Rays (14-18), who have lost eight of their last 10. They have also struggled against teams above .500, going 4-8 in those games. The Mets will look to take advantage of the Rays’ slow start to the season. Here are some notes on the three pitching matchups this weekend.

Friday, May 3, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (1-2, 3.48 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Civale (2-2, 5.06 ERA)

Jose Quintana has struggled to pitch deep into games during his time with the Mets, but that was not the case in his last start. The veteran was superb against the Cardinals last Sunday, allowing just one run on three hits in eight innings. Quintana was incredibly efficient, and for the first time in 2024, he allowed one walk or less in an outing, which is certainly a positive sign as the season progresses. The left-hander has not performed well on the road (1-1, 5.06 ERA), so that will once again be put to the test this weekend. Quintana is 1-4 against the Rays in his career, owning a 4.09 ERA in 44 innings across nine appearances.

Aaron Civale was acquired by the Rays at last season’s trade deadline, adding another quality arm to their staff. But, to this point, he has yet to establish a rhythm in Tampa Bay. Civale began the 2023 season going 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts with the Cleveland Guardians. Since then, he is 4-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 16 total starts with the Rays. With Shane McClanahan out for the season, the team will need better performances from Civale if their rotation is going to compete with the best teams in the American League. His first and only start against the Mets was all the way back in 2019 as he allowed two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Saturday, May 4, 2024: RHP Christian Scott (3-0, 3.20 ERA in AAA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (1-2, 3.27 ERA)

Mets fans have a reason to be particularly excited about this matchup, as Christian Scott is being called up from Triple-A Syracuse to make his major league debut. The right-hander is the top pitching prospect in the Mets’ system, having quickly risen up the ranks since being drafted in 2021. Scott has flourished during his first run in AAA this year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA through five starts. He operates with a four-pitch arsenal, utilizing a fastball, sweeper, slider and a changeup/splitter. The one concern with Scott is that he has already given up seven home runs in 25 1/3 innings, so he will hope to avoid giving up the long ball against a team that ranks 26th in home runs this season.

For a pitching staff that has looked really shaky at times in the early season, Zack Littell has thrived in the middle of the rotation. He began his career as a reliever and has worked as an opener in his time with the Rays, but now he appears to be a full-time starter. In four of his first six appearances, he has allowed two runs or less. Littell threw a career-high 90 innings in 2023, so he is well on his way to exceed that number this season as he already has 33 under his belt. The 28-year-old has taken the loss in each of his last two starts, allowing 17 hits, seven earned runs and two home runs across 12 innings. Littell owns a 1.29 ERA in six career relief appearances against the Mets.

Sunday, May 5, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (2-2, 2.31 ERA) vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot (3-2, 3.12 ERA)

Luis Severino is quite familiar with pitching against the Rays after they served as his division rival while he was with the New York Yankees. He has performed quite well against them in the past, owning an 8-3 record with a 3.33 ERA across 15 total appearances. Severino also holds solid numbers at Tropicana Field, pitching to a 3.90 ERA in 32 1/3 innings. Like Quintana, the right-hander is coming off his best outing of the season as he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Cubs on Monday. The Mets’ starter is now 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA over his last 30 innings pitched.

Ryan Pepiot was one of the key pieces in the return for Tyler Glasnow, whom the Rays traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the offseason. The young starter is expected to be a part of the team’s rotation for the foreseeable future, and so far he has impressed during his brief stint with Tampa Bay. Pepiot surrendered four earned runs in a 11-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants back on April 13, but since then he is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings. He also showed quite a bit of promise with the Dodgers, making a total of 10 starts with them between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. I think it is safe to say that he, along with Zach Eflin, will be the key pieces for the Rays’ rotation as they push for a postseason bid.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Christian Scott (NYM)

How could I not go with Scott? His name has been brought up as a potential call-up for a number of weeks, and now he will finally get his opportunity on the biggest stage. The Mets would love nothing more than to see a young starter break into the big-league rotation and remain there. With Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill expected to return in the near future, it will be tough for Scott to do that right away. But given the way experts have spoken of him, anything is possible for the 24-year-old. Make sure to tune in for his start on Saturday.

Randy Arozarena (TB)

Randy Arozarena is one of the most entertaining players in all of baseball when he is going right. He has begun the season in a slump, however, failing to record a hit in five of his last six games. Arozarena is currently slashing just .139/.220/.235/.455 through 127 plate appearances. He was an All-Star last season, so this is unforeseen territory for the outfielder. The Rays offense has struggled in the early season, so it could use some sort of resurgence from Arozarena sooner rather than later.