Just under a decade ago, the New York Mets had a farm system stocked with electric starting pitchers that would later help carry the franchise to a World Series appearance. That core is long gone at this point, however, and for a team whose history is steeped in talent at the position, the Mets have had little to no success developing homegrown rotation arms in recent years.
That promises to change sooner rather than later, though, as Christian Scott is primed to be the first of New York’s new-age minor leaguers to get a shot at proving himself at the next level when he debuts against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. Successfully making the transition from college reliever to bonafide prospect, Scott carries a boatload of potential for the Mets as they eagerly await his arrival.
Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized
Scott was selected in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB Draft out of the University of Florida, where he recorded a 3.72 ERA across 55 appearances and three seasons. He made his professional debut in the Complex League with the FCL Mets later that year, pitching in only three games before moving up to Low-A St. Lucie to open the 2022 campaign. There, he appeared in 12 games, only four of which were starts, while putting up a meager 4.82 ERA over 37.1 innings. Regardless, he made the jump to High-A Brooklyn to close out the year and found more success there, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and recording 25 strikeouts over 25 1/3 frames in addition to starting five of the six contests he played in.
After a rough go of it in the Arizona Fall League following the conclusion of the 2022 season, Scott emerged as a breakout star the following year. Beginning 2023 with the Cyclones, Scott saw his BB/9 rate at the level drop from 4.22 to 1.52 while turning in a 2.28 ERA, 2.08 FIP, and a 0.803 WHIP over six starts with the club. His performance swiftly earned him a promotion to Double-A Binghamton, where his stock rose even further as he recorded a 2.47 ERA and 11.18 K/9 through 12 starts and 62 innings with the Rumble Ponies.
Scott caught the attention of national pundits after his stellar campaign, earning him a spot on both Baseball Prospectus’, FanGraphs’ and ESPN’s top prospects lists at No. 88, No. 98, and No. 99, respectively, ahead of the 2024 season. Currently ranked No. 5 in the Mets’ system by MLB Pipeline, Scott has excelled in his first taste of action in Triple-A Syracuse to the tune of a 3.20 ERA and 12.79 K/9 across five starts. His home run rate has ballooned to 2.49 per nine thus far, though his WHIP sits at a lowly 0.711 as he transitions to the majors.
Scott’s bread and butter is his four-seam fastball, which sits in the mid-90s and has earned rave reviews from scouts as he’s moved through the Mets’ system. According to Thomas Nestico of TJStats, he has thrown the pitch 47.5% of the time this season while generating a 32.1% whiff percentage and consistently locating it at the top of the zone.
Scott’s sweeper has also developed into a dangerous offering, as right-handed hitters hold a 29.1% chase rate and 43.5% whiff rate against the pitch according to Nestico. He uses his slider, another pitch that has earned positive marks, as a direct foil to his sweeper in that he deploys it primarily against lefties as the pitch has produced a 33.3% whiff rate against them in 2024. Scott’s splitter/changeup remains a worthy weapon as well, particularly against righties, though it’s fallen slightly out of favor due to the rise of his sweeper.
Recently moved up to the No. 62 spot in Baseball America’s updated top prospects rankings, Scott is arriving to much fanfare as he enters the next stage of his career. There’s every reason to believe he’ll rise to the occasion considering his prosperity at nearly every level in the minor leagues in tandem with his immaculate control, deep arsenal, and plus stuff. The 24-year-old right-hander projects to be a part of the Mets’ rotation for many years to come, and both sides hope his first start is just the beginning of a long relationship between team and player.
