As written here on MMO, initial television ratings for the early rounds of the 2022 postseason were encouraging. While the increase in viewership was modest, the higher ratings also skewed a bit more than recent years toward a younger audience. This is something on which Major League Baseball is focusing, with upcoming rule changes designed to quicken the pace of the games and add more on-field action. The good ratings news did not carry over the World Series, however. What does this mean for the game?

Let’s start with some numbers. The Astros’ victory in six games over the Phillies averaged just over 12 million viewers, including the Fox broadcast, Fox Deportes, and streaming (streaming became factored into the numbers in 2022). On Fox alone, the average was 11.78 million. This is the second- lowest viewer draw in World Series history, trailing only the Dodgers’ 2020 win in six games over the Rays, which averaged only 9.94 million on Fox. Last year’s Braves’ win, also in six games, over the Astros averaged 11.94 million people watching on Fox.

This clearly isn’t the news that MLB was hoping for for its pinnacle event. But just how bad of a message do these television ratings deliver? The answer is a matter of perspective. In an article in The Athletic by Bill Shea, the author provides some interesting context. There is no doubt that in recent years, fewer people are watching the World Series. In 1973, when the Mets faced the Oakland Athletics, over 34 million watched, and that number ballooned to over 44 million in 1978 when the Yankees took on the Dodgers. By 2005, television viewership was consistently below 20 million, in fact, from 2005-2022, only the Cubs-Indians series averaged an audience of over 20 million (Game Seven that year pulled in over 40 million people).

Shea’s perspective is that we have to re-frame our thinking about television viewership. There are so many more options today, that an apples-to-apples comparison to even twenty years ago is essentially invalid (no one was streaming Ted Lasso, or anything else, in 2002). A better metric to use is how a television event does in its time slot against the competition that night (or day). Using this lens, baseball is not doing badly. From former television executive Patrick Crakes, in Shea’s article:

“Show me something that’s setting an all-time (viewership) record somewhere,” said Patrick Crakes, a media analyst and former Fox Sports executive. “This is the range it’s at. The World Series was a top-10 prime-time show 50 years ago alongside ‘Mannix’ and it still is today. What else does that? The NFL and a couple other things.”

The NFL is, as one may expect, an outlier. Super Bowl viewership goes up virtually every year. Last year’s Rams-Bengals Super Bowl had nearly 100 million viewers. The 2015 game between the Seahawks and Patriots drew an audience of nearly 115 million. In 1973, the Super Bowl had over 53 million people watching as the Dolphins took on the Washington Redskins.

So baseball is still winning its time slots, though with smaller numbers. That is what sponsors are willing to pay for, and they are definitely paying. MLB is set to realize $11 billion in revenue this year, according to Forbes. This would represent pre-pandemic (2019) level revenue. From the cited Athletic article:

Fox pays MLB a reported $729 million annually through 2028 for its broadcast rights package that includes the World Series. The championship is a crown-jewel telecast, but such live sports deals are generally more about the day-to-day live game inventory that populates channels and streamers.

Advertisers spent $178 million on commercial airtime with Fox during the World Series, per data provided by advertising metrics data firm EDO Inc. That’s up from last year’s $163 million and 2020’s $162 million (all six-game series).

It’s unlikely that baseball will see average World Series viewership over 30 million again, given the new world, with more streaming and more entertainment options in general. Crakes adds this in Shea’s article:

“Those numbers may be unreachable,” Crakes said, adding that it would take a seven-game series, without interruption, and probably would need to be a major market matchup between, say, the Cubs and Yankees to have any shot.

It’s important to note that the 2022 World Series had two games on Saturday nights (one of which because of a rainout), which not only are generally the worst nights for television, but also the games had to compete with college football in its customary time slot. However, the numbers still would not have been significantly better.

In the end, the dire predictions that “baseball is dying” are not valid. The game’s revenue has rebounded since the pandemic has eased, and a contextual look at television viewership shows that the game remains more popular than virtually any other current programming.

Baseball still has work to do. The game needs to increase its appeal to younger audiences to ensure long-term viability. Commissioner Manfred, though his moves are often derided and the jury is still out on their effectiveness, is making tweaks to try to make the game more enticing to younger people. Time (and revenue trend lines) will tell if he succeeds.

For now at least, the news for MLB is not all bad.

The post Though World Series TV Ratings Were Down, Baseball Is Doing Well appeared first on Metsmerized.

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Post – Nov. 17, 13:10 PM ET

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to reporters on Thursday with one topic being the investigation into whether or not the Yankees and Mets colluded to drive down the price of free agent outfielder Aaron Judge. Manfred acknowledged that the league is conducting an investigation.

“I’m absolutely confident the clubs behaved in a way that was consistent with the (CBA) agreement. This was based on a newspaper report. We will put ourselves in a position to demonstrate credibly to the MLBPA that this is not an issue. I’m sure that’s going to be the outcome,” Manfred said.

Original Post – Nov. 17, 10:30 AM ET

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Major League Baseball is investigating whether conversations between the New York Mets and New York Yankees happened regarding free agent Aaron Judge that would be considered a violation baseball’s collective bargaining agreement.

MLB is looking into the potential issue following an article published by SNY earlier this month that the Mets wouldn’t get into a bidding war over the superstar. “Mets sources said that they did not plan to fight the Yankees this offseason for Judge”, Andy Martino wrote about the Mets not wanting to bid against the Yankees for Judge.

The report caught the attention of the MLB Players Association which led to them asking the Commissioner’s Office to investigate. “Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war”, Martino wrote later in the article.

Recent CBAs specifically prohibit the sharing of information on player contracts, saying, “Players shall not act in concert with other Players and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs.”

Rosenthal goes on to report that the league is expected to request the phone, text, and email records between Cohen and Steinbrenner. If the union files a grievance over the situation with the Mets and Yankees, an arbitrator will determine whether collusion occurred.

Looking at recent instances where there were reports of collusion takes you to 2006 when the owners agreed to pay the players $12 million as part of the CBA. That came from complaints by the players that the owners engaged in collusion in 2002 and 2003. In 2007, the players raised concerns again that the owners colluded to drive down the contract for free agent Alex Rodriguez.

The Mets have been essentially linked to every big-time free agent since Steve Cohen bought the team in 2020, but they haven’t been reported to show series interest in Judge.

The post Manfred: Doesn’t Believe Mets, Yankees Are Colluding appeared first on Metsmerized.

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The 40-man roster deadline is often one of the most action-packed days during the early portion of the season when it comes to protecting players for the Rule 5 draft. As we saw this week, several teams made deals and some teams designated talented players for assignment, sending them to waivers. We’re going to take a look at a few of the more intriguing names that fit that criteria and see what they could bring to the table.

Jarlín García, RP

Jarlin García started his career with the Miami Marlins, posting a 4.29 ERA over 150 games from 2017 to 2019. The lefty reliever was then designated for assignment for the first time in February of 2020 and was subsequently claimed by the San Francisco Giants. He went on to have a career year in 2020 with a 0.49 ERA in 19 games before once again proving to be a legit weapon out of the ‘pen in 2o21 with a 2.62 ERA over 58 games. A drop in his strikeout rate and rises in his walk, hard-hit, and home run rates compounded his 2022 season and led to a -0.1 fWAR over 50 games despite a 3.74 ERA, largely due to his poor peripherals.

García is worth a flyer on waivers due to his successful two-season stretch prior to 2022, as well as his effectiveness against lefties. Left-handed hitters slashed only .192/.245/.364 against García to go with just a .266 wOBA. Another factor to consider is that his four-seam fastball, which was an elite pitch in 2021 and had a run value of -12 according to Baseball Savant, seemingly lost its efficacy in 2022 as batters slugged .459 against it. If García could switch some things up and rediscover that pitch in 2023 and beyond, he could become a steal for any team that claims him.

Raimel Tapia, OF

After an underwhelming stint in Colorado that saw him put up just 1.1 fWAR over parts of 6 seasons, Raimel Tapia was swapped for fellow outfielder Randal Grichuk and sent to Toronto. With the Blue Jays, Tapia played in 128 games and produced 0.3 fWAR and a 90 wRC+ while slashing .265/.292/.380.

Tapia’s value is derived mainly from his speed and defense. The 28-year-old stole 20 bases in 2021 and 8 in 2022 while also ranking in the 72nd percentile for sprint speed. As for his defense, he struggled with -5 Outs Above Average in 2022 but put up 5 OAA total in his two full seasons prior to that. Building off of that, Tapia possesses an extremely strong arm that ranked in the 82nd percentile.

Tapia doesn’t bring much to the table offensively, as he owns a career wRC+ of 80 and doesn’t hit for power while struggling to get on base. That shouldn’t take away from his strengths as a player though, as he can operate as a fourth outfielder that provides value in a variety of ways.

Jackson Stephens, RP

After signing a minor league deal with Atlanta before the 2022 season, Jackson Stephens stepped in and pitched valuable innings for a Braves team that had one of the best bullpens in the league. Stephens threw 53.2 innings over 39 games for Atlanta while recording a 3.69 ERA, 3.54 FIP and 0.4 fWAR.

Stephens excels at inducing weak contact, with his hard-hit rate against on the year coming in at just 32.1% while his average exit velocity against sat at 87.0. With his strikeout and walk percentages numbers being rather pedestrian at 20% and 9.8% respectively, it’s a trait that he thrives off of. Within his five-pitch mix, Stephens relies on his four-seam fastball and curveball the most, and for good reason. Both had negative run values and a combined batting average against of under .200. Stephens’ curve in particular showed loads of potential, as it had 16.0 inches of break and in turn ranked in the 96th percentile for the pitch in spin rate.

Overall, Stephens has the arsenal and makeup to be a solid middle reliever and could make the team that claims him really happy in the near future.

Ryan Yarbrough, SP/RP

Ryan Yarbrough has had an interesting career, often following the “opener” within the Rays unorthodox yet effective pitching model. Yarbrough amassed 5.8 fWAR over his five-year period in Tampa, with the pinnacle coming in 2019 when he produced 2.6 fWAR, 4.13 ERA and a 3.55 FIP over 28 games. Despite his play declining over the past two seasons, Yarbrough will hit waivers as a fascinating rotation option that has unique flexibility.

Yarbrough’s claim to fame is the fact that he is one of the game’s most prolific soft-tossers. His cutter, which acts as his primary pitch, comes in at an average velocity of 82.3 MPH while his sinker sits at just 86.7 MPH. As a result, Yarbrough is a savant at limiting hard contact while also possessing impressive command. The downside, however, is that he can struggle to put batters away and doesn’t exactly have dominant stuff, which becomes more of an issue when you consider the fact that he is a flyball pitcher.

Yarbrough has valuable experience as an MLB-caliber starting pitcher, which should be enough to draw significant interest on waivers.

Stone Garrett, OF

Stone Garrett being DFA’d was arguably the most surprising development ahead of the Rule 5 deadline on Tuesday as teams scrambled to set their 40-man rosters. After playing parts of eight seasons in the minor leagues, Garrett was called up by Arizona in August and immediately let his presence be known. In 27 games, Garrett slashed .276/.309/.539 while putting up a 131 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR.

Garrett has potential due to his mix of speed and raw power. However, there are legit concerns about his swing-and-miss tendencies and overall plate discipline, which manifested at the major league level in the form of a 32.1 strikeout percentage and 3.6 walk percentage. Still, considering the fact that he has options remaining and has proven he can handle major league pitching, there’s no reason to believe Garrett won’t be claimed and given a chance to earn a role next spring.

The post Highlighting Intriguing Players That Were DFA’d appeared first on Metsmerized.