Position: OF B/T: R/R

Age: 27 (08/03/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 328 PA, .206/.293/.343/.636, 59 H, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 26 SB

2025 Advanced Stats:  77 wRC+, 29.0% K%, 10.7% BB%, .268 BABiP, .319 xwOBA, 0.6  fWAR, 0.6  bWAR, 2 OAA

Rundown

Luis Robert Jr. is one of the more intriguing “buy low” candidates ahead of this year’s trade deadline. Signed by the Chicago White Sox in 2017 as an international free agent, Robert Jr. debuted during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Alongside the likes of Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada, Robert was a key piece of a young core that was meant to deliver the South Side its first title since 2005. That vision never came to fruition, however, and it culminated in just two postseason appearances: a Wild Card round exit vs. the Oakland Athletics in 2020, and a 2021 ALDS loss to the Houston Astros. Now in 2025, all but Robert Jr. from that group is gone. With the Sox still waiting on some of their top prospects to debut, they’re looking to add more young talent that should graduate within the 2027/2028 window, which is when their next competitive core is expected to emerge.

Statistically, Robert Jr.’s 2025 season reflects a player caught between raw tools, inconsistent results and the weight of playing for a team headed for its third-straight 100-loss season. His slash line of .206/.293/.343 and 77 wRC+ shows clear offensive struggles, a stark contrast from his 2023 performance. A 29.0% strikeout rate, well above league average, points to continued swing-and-miss issues, even as his 94th percentile bat speed (75.7 mph) and 65th percentile barrel rate (10.8%) hint at untapped power. Encouragingly, a 10.7% walk rate and .319 xwOBA indicate a more disciplined approach at the plate and suggest that his underlying performance may be stronger than the surface numbers imply.

Defensively, Robert Jr. remains a plus contributor, with two Outs Above Average reinforcing his continued value in center field. His base-stealing efficiency, demonstrated by 25 steals despite his limited opportunities, adds another layer of versatility to his game. Yet his overall WAR, just 0.6 by both FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Reference (bWAR), tells a story of a player in need of a mechanical adjustment to reach his 2023 levels of production.

Since making his MLB debut in 2020, when he won a Gold Glove and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, Robert Jr. has struggled to stay on the field, battling a series of injuries nearly every season. From 2021 to 2023, he missed 36% of games due to ailments ranging from a torn hip flexor to groin and wrist injuries. In 2024, he sat out 62 games with another hip strain. As a result, 2023 remains the only season in which Robert has played more than 100 games, raising concerns about his durability.

Package

Since his breakout campaign in 2023, Robert Jr. has struggled to recapture that form. Over the last two seasons, he’s posted a disappointing .216/.285/.364 slash line with 24 home runs and an 83 OPS+. Despite his power potential, his production has significantly dipped.

Below are three trades from the recent past involving power-hitting outfielders who were also enduring down years.

     1. Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox (December 2023)

After an injury-riddled 2023 campaign that saw him fall out of favor in St. Louis, O’Neill was moved to Boston for relievers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Though the return was light, O’Neill had posted a 150 OPS+ and 5.5 fWAR in 2021, proving he could impact games on both sides of the ball when healthy. Like Robert, O’Neill was a former top prospect with power, speed and defensive ability, but also a growing injury history. While O’Neill had less team control, this trade represents a low-cost blueprint if the White Sox are truly motivated to reset and offload risk.

      2. Austin Meadows to the Tigers (April 2022)

After a down year in Tampa Bay and with arbitration looming, Meadows was traded to Detroit for Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance Round B pick. Meadows was coming off a 27-homer year and had put together a 33-homer All-Star campaign in 2019. Like Robert, Meadows was a former top prospect with loud tools but mounting durability concerns. While Meadows had fewer years of control, this trade highlights how teams can move off volatile talent for younger, cost-controlled pieces with upside.

     3. Jorge Soler to the Braves (July 2021)

Soler was hitting just .192 with 13 home runs for the Kansas City Royals at the time of the deal, but Atlanta saw enough in his power and track record to acquire him for pitching prospect Kasey Kalich. Soler went on to win World Series MVP. While Soler didn’t offer the defensive value, speed or contract appeal that Robert does, the Mets parting with a minor league arm like Frank Elissalt, whose timeline aligns with Chicago’s projected contention window, represents a similarly structured deal.

Mets Receive

  • OF Luis Robert Jr.

White Sox Receive

  • OF Eli Serrano III (No. 12 prospect per Mike Mayer)
  • RHP Frank Elissalt (No. 39 prospect per Mike Mayer)

Recommendation

With Robert Jr. currently enduring the worst season of his major league career, acquiring him likely wouldn’t require the steep price that was speculated at last year’s trade deadline. For that reason, New York might consider taking a flyer on him. Despite his struggles, Robert is one of the more compelling “change of scenery” candidates we’ve seen in recent memory. His contract includes $20 million club options for both the 2026 and 2027 seasons, meaning the 27-year-old could either be a pure rental or stick around for a few more years if the Mets were to acquire him.

If he can be even 50% of what he was in 2023, it would still be an upgrade over Tyrone Taylor, who’s struggling to get his bat going despite playing at a high level defensively. Despite his injury history, Robert is just two years removed from a season in which he hit 38 home runs and posted an OPS of .857. If the Mets are serious about adding upside without mortgaging their future, few targets offer as much low-risk, high-reward potential as Robert Jr.