Hey MMO readers, let’s open some reader mail! What’s that? There’s no reader mail? Well then it’s time for the first of what I’m going to call my “self-mailbags,” where I address the questions that have been weighing on the minds of some very important Mets fans in my life: Me, Myself and I. And while the Mets community is abuzz with our newly minted acquisition of an elite closer and an all-time great second baseman, my first attempt at his exercise takes us to the outfield:

The Question: Should the Mets Replace Lagares With Hamilton?

I’m not the first person in the MMO community to wonder about whether Billy Hamilton might fit on the Mets. John Edwards posted an article the other day when the Reds non-tendered their electric outfielder. But John was wondering about adding Hamilton to compliment Juan Lagares as Lagares’ backup. For some of the reasons mentioned in John’s article and by many of you in the comments, I’m not so sure that’s the best use of a roster spot (although I still think it would be worth it if Hamilton would be cheap). Rather, I’m wondering whether the Mets should trade Lagares, and then add Hamilton.

Let’s get this out of the way: I know that Billy Hamilton is a terrible hitter. If he’s in your starting lineup, one-ninth of your at-bats are going to one of the league’s worst batsmen (and, for an NL team like the Mets, another is going to the pitcher). Hamilton is in the Major Leagues for his elite defense­––– a selling point he shares with Lagares–­–­– and his blink-and-you’ll-miss-him speed.

But I think this move could make a lot of sense for the Mets. Here are some reasons why:

1. Hamilton’s bat makes it hard to start him, but Lagares shouldn’t be seen as a starter either.

 All the talk of how Hamilton’s bat is too weak to justify putting him in the starting lineup glosses over one important, harsh reality: The Mets can’t, shouldn’t, and (I believe) don’t plan on relying on Juan Lagares to be their everyday starting center fielder. So when evaluating a move to replace Juan with Hamilton, we should not grade Hamilton as a starter. Why can’t we rely on Lagares, the 2014 Gold Glove winner at the position, to start in center field day in and day out? Well, that brings us to our second reality, one that has been the elephant in the room for most of Juan’s career:

2. Lagares can’t stay on the field.

Lagares is a good player. He is elite defensively and has pretty good speed. His bat isn’t great, or even good but he has shown flashes at the plate, is somewhat half-decent against lefties, and the guy hit .339 last season. He and Hamilton both boost an elite glove, and while Lagares doesn’t have Hamilton’s blazing speed (making his fielding prowess more impressive), Lagares has the better bat. But despite that better bat, and that beautiful .339 average in 2018, Juan had fewer hits the past three seasons combined than Hamilton had in 2018 alone. Why? Because Lagares has played just 203 games during that span (and just 30 last year), while Hamilton has played in 411.

I mentioned that Lagares manages to play at an elite level in the field despite a lack of elite speed, and that’s because he goes all-out on every play. Lagares’ determination to catch any ball that goes in the air is admirable and makes him one of the team’s most exciting players, but it also lands him on the trainer’s table infuriatingly often.

If Lagares toned it down on defense, he wouldn’t be Juan Lagares, and he wouldn’t have as much value. But if he keeps being himself, the odds of him being on the disabled list are higher than the odds of him being on the field, and that’s why the Mets would be wise to— and, according to recent reports, appear to be looking to— add another outfielder to start in between Michael Conforto in left field and Brandon Nimmo in right (if Yoenis Cespedes comes back and stays healthy, that’s a bridge we’d all very happily cross when we come to it). This would make Lagares a fourth outfielder, and late-inning defensive replacement. Juan would be good for that role, but if we admit he and the team are best off when he comes off the bench, that brings us to our next point:

3. As a 4th outfielder, Hamilton is a better value and a better fit for the Mets than Lagares

Lagares will make $9 million this coming season and has a $9.5 million option for 2020 that comes with $500K buyout. He might be good enough to be a starting center fielder (and I think “might” is a fair word, weighing his glove against his bat), but he can’t be relied on as a starter, which will require the Mets to seek an external option in the outfield. And if Lagares is slotted in as the fourth outfielder, $9M for a bench player best used as a defensive replacement is, if not an overpay, a luxury in which a team with the Mets’ well-documented payroll “issues” (a word I use to avoid picking between “constraints” and “choices”) should not indulge.

That $9M would be much better spent towards a catcher, a true 3rd starting OF (ideally one who can patrol center field), a high-end reliever to pair with Edwin Diaz in what is still a very weak bullpen, or even a starter to either provide depth behind (or in place of) the likes of Jason Vargas or replace Noah Syndergaard should the Mets deal “Thor” for what would certainly be a massive haul that would plug at least one of the aforementioned gaps in the roster.

Meanwhile, Hamilton, for a price of what I would assume to be around $2-4M this year, would provide a similarly phenomenal glove to be used as a late-inning replacement, while adding the incredible speed for which he is best known. As a Minor League in 2012, Hamilton stole 155 bases in 132 games. While he “only” swiped 34 bags for the Reds in 2018 (Amed Rosario led the Mets with 24), Hamilton had 59 steals in 2017 (the Mets had 58 as a team that year), 58 in 2016, 57 in 2015, and 56 in 2014. And while rarely getting on base is hardly something to brag about, it makes Hamilton’s stolen base numbers even more striking. Hamilton’s speed (which would also help cover for Nimmo and Conforto, and especially Cespedes, in the corners when used in center) also makes him a weapon off the bench in a way Lagares is not.

Hamilton can be used as a mercenary pinch-runner in late-inning, high-leverage situations, a skill which Terrance Gore, a far worse hitter, has used to single-handedly justify his roster spot for his entire career (Gore has 1 career hit, but has been on the 25-man roster for three playoff teams because of his ability to produce on the basepaths).

Lagares is a better hitter than Hamilton, but we’re not exactly comparing Mike Trout and Brad Emaus here. Hamilton has a career slash line of .245/.298/.333, while Lagares’ is .260/.300/.367. Hamilton’s lack of power is obvious (he has 20 career home runs; Sammy Sosa hit 20 in June of 1998), the elite speed means that a single from Hamilton is worth a bit more than his slugging percentage would reflect. So, especially in a bench role which would reduce the importance of their respective bats, I think the factors I have discussed make Hamilton’s tools (and his price) a better fit for the fourth outfielder spot in which I think the Mets would, without Hamilton, be smart to use Lagares.

One “if” I’ve ignored thus far is whether the Mets could move Juan Lagares before signing Hamilton, but I think that’s, at most, a medium-sized “if.” Lagares could have value to a team with less depth in the outfield (when Cespedes is healthy, the Mets have three very solid outfielders and even without Yoenis, two is nothing to sneeze at), less range in the corners, more faith in their training staff, a determination to improve their defense (and an aversion to Hamilton like the one Cincinnati showed by non-tendering him), and/or more room in their budget to pay a guy like Lagares a $9M salary.

Maybe it’s a team with a big budget who doesn’t mind having Juan on the bench or the DL even if he’s not making chump change. Maybe it’s a team with few current payroll commitments, but one not looking to shell out longer years and more money for a high-end free agent (or not confident in their ability to get that free agent to move to their city). Maybe the Mets only get a “lottery ticket” prospect in return, or maybe they have to eat $1-2 M of Lagares’ salary to make a deal (in which case they might get some more talent back). But I think Lagares is a movable contract, and I think, for the reasons I’ve discussed here, that the team might be better off sending him on his way and bringing in Hamilton as a replacement— one who will spend most of his time on the bench.

Now, people who know me know I’m a huge Lagares fan. I own his jersey and include it regularly in my rotation. I make some serious noise when he’s at the plate (although the best time to cheer for Juan is probably when the other team is hitting). One of my social media usernames used to be a pun on his name. After I pose this question, I expect at least three people to contact me to make sure I haven’t had my identity stolen. But as much as I like Juan, I can’t help but thinking this move might make sense. And if the Mets add another starting outfielder first, the move would feel more like replacing Lagares with someone like A.J. Pollock… and then replacing Austin Jackson with Hamilton. And in that case, I’d have to say, “Sign me up!”

My Verdict: Yes, the Mets should replace Lagares with Hamilton.

Mets fans, what do you think? If Brodie Van Wagenen has a GM on Line 1 offering to take Juan Lagares, and Billy Hamilton’s agent on Line 2 offering to sign for cheap, should he pull both triggers?

The post Mets Matters: Should Mets Replace Lagares with Billy Hamilton? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Yoenis Céspedes, OF

Player Data: Age: 31, B/T: R/R, Free Agency: 2021

2018 Salary: $29 million

2017 Primary Stats: .292/.352/.540, 17 HR, 42 RBI, 17 2B, 291 AB, 2.1 WAR

Grade: B-

2017 Review:

The problem wasn’t talent, but the ability of that talent to stay on the field.

That line describes the 2017 New York Mets as a whole, but applies particularly well to their best player. Yoenis Cespedes played very well in 2017. He had a very nice slash line, and if you take his counting stats and multiply them over, say, 150 games or, say,  550 plate appearances, you have a very nice season indeed, one certainly worthy of the big money “La Potencia” rakes in.

The problem, of course, is that Yoenis Céspedes only played 81 games (76 starts) in a 162-game season that many expected to extend at least into game 163. The slugger only stepped to the dish 321 times. When your best player misses half the season, your team is in hot water, albeit with a chance to stay afloat. When nearly all of your other talented players miss significant time as well… well, we all saw what happens then.

But we can’t grade Céspedes as a microcosm of an F-grade season for the team. We have to grade him on his own merits. That means factoring the quality of his play, the quantity of that quality and, of course, his expectations and role. I’ll take 17 home runs from Travis d’Arnaud or Wilmer Flores. I’ll jump for joy if we get 17 home runs from TJ Rivera. But I need more than 17 home runs from Yoenis Céspedes. I need twice that, really.

Now, when Céspedes was on the field, he didn’t disappoint. He homered in 5.3% of his plate appearances, almost exactly on par with his 5.7% rate a year ago. His slash line of .292/.352/.540 was slightly better than the .280/.354/.530 line he posted in 2016. He started hot, he finished VERY hot, and he was fairly consistent, struggling in July but otherwise being very productive when he was on the field.

But while Céspedes had a bat we could all rely on, his body was anything but reliable. His legs in particular were a major problem. He was often absent, and often hampered when present (either by a nagging injury he was playing through or by his own instincts to “play it safe”).

Céspedes has the skills and athleticism of a five-tool player, but his body refused to cooperate, forcing him to avoid running hard, sliding, or diving for most of his time on the field. And while that cautious style of play may have been frustrating to watch, it was validated in far more frustrating fashion; seemingly every time Céspedes DID hit the ground to make a catch or beat a tag, he would come up lame.

Céspedes went down at the end of April and didn’t resurface until the second week of June. With a somewhat reduced workload, he managed to stay on the field a good amount, but hit a slump at the end of the first half. Always a force down the stretch, the slugger caught fire in August with seven homers, five doubles and a .325/.411/.662 slash line in 23 games. But once again, a hot streak was followed by an injury, and he was shut down after exiting a game in the first inning on August 25.

In the end, Céspedes brought a potent bat that often produced and still provided a presence when he was struggling. His defense continued to decline, but that was in some part due to his physical ailments. Céspedes is a very good player, and he showed it in 2017. But he wasn’t on the field enough, and when you’re grading a team’s best player, you have to grade on a curve. The Mets needed more from Céspedes in 2017 and, as was the case with most of their other top players, they didn’t get it.

Did You Know?

With his three home runs on April 11 in Philadelphia, Yoenis Céspedes became the first Met ever with two three-homer games.

2018 Outlook:

If Céspedes is on the team, and healthy, he will be penciled in somewhere in the heart of the order. As for whether we can expect him in the lineup in 2018, it’s anybody’s guess. Can the Mets count on him to stay healthy? They probably can’t rely on that, but they don’t really have any choice.

If Céspedes does indeed stay on the field, which could happen through a better offseason training regimen, a more cautious approach during the season and, of course, some luck, we know what he’ll bring to the table: A terrifying bat which will range from good to outrageously good, an absolute cannon of an arm, and a flair for the dramatic.

The post 2017 Mets Report Card: Yoenis Céspedes, OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets (7-4) lost to the Miami Marlins (5-5) by a score of 3-2 on Friday night in South Beach.

Noah Syndergaard pitched for New York and, while not his usual dominant self, was quite good. Thor allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits in 6 innings, walking none and striking out 4. Syndergaard threw just 87 pitches, but slowed down late in his start and was removed well before his pitch limit after the blister he suffered on Opening Day seemed to flare up. With the one earned run allowed, Thor’s ERA ballooned to 0.95 on the season.

Update: It was apparently a fingernail issue for Syndergaard. I believe it was the same finger. Joe and the team will keep us all updated with further posts!

The game got off to a rough start for the Mets, as Marlins pitcher Edinson Volquez cruised through the top of the first and Syndergaard ran into trouble in the home half. Dee Gordon singled to lead off the frame, and a throwing error from Asdrubal Cabrera put runners on second and third with none out. Thor righted himself, however, and managed to get out of the inning with just one run allowed on a sacrifice fly from Christian Yelich.

Volquez lost his command in the second inning, but the Mets left the bases loaded when a hard liner from Rene Rivera found a glove in left. They again loaded the bases in the third, and with the green light to swing on 3-0, Michael Conforto made solid contact for a sacrifice fly that tied the game. But the Mets could not cash in further, as Wilmer Flores grounded out to end the inning.

New York took the lead in the fifth on a monster home run from Lucas Duda, but Syndergaard started to struggle in the bottom of the inning. A pair of singles set the table with one out, and a lucky blooper from Dee Gordon tied the game. Thor also had to battle a bit in the sixth as he struggled with his command, but finished the frame with the game tied.

The Mets, meanwhile, slowed down on offense as the game progressed. Jose Reyes drew a walk leading off the sixth against Miami reliever Jarlin Garcia, who was making his MLB debut, and moved to third when Thor laid down a good bunt with the speedy third baseman running on the play. But Rivera struck out and Granderson popped up to strand Jose at third.

In the seventh, it was the Mets doing the heavy lifting to keep the game tied. After Kyle Barraclough breezed through the top half, Rafael Montero came in to relieve the blister-ridden Syndergaard in the home half, and struggled once again. A pair of singles set Miami up with one out, and with a 3-2 count to JT Realmuto, Terry Collins called for an intentional walk to load the bases before bringing in Jerry Blevins. Blevins got Yelich to fly out to fairly deep left field, and with Miguel Rojas sprinting home, Michael Conforto unleashed a perfect throw to the plate, where Rivera tagged Rojas out on a close play that was upheld after video review.

The Mets almost did some damage against David Phelps for the second straight night, but this time could not cash in any runs in the eighth. Reyes and Rivera singled, but the former Yankee worked out of the jam before Josh Edgin scraped through the eighth for the visitors in the bottom half.

In the ninth, the Mets got the go-ahead run on base when Jay Bruce worked a walk against AJ Ramos, but Duda grounded into a double-play to send it to the bottom of the ninth and put the Mets behind the eight-ball. Edgin issued a leadoff walk to Rojas, and after getting two outs and getting to two strikes on Realmuto, the Miami catcher drove one into the right-field gap on a 3-2 pitch. With Rojas running on the play, the winning run easily scored for the Fish, ending the Mets’ five-game winning streak.

After a 16-inning marathon last night, the Mets needed a long outing from Syndergaard tonight to preserve the bullpen. Thor looked like he could answer the call, especially after he worked through a rough first inning. But he faltered in the fifth and sixth, and then exited with the blister. I noted to myself when he first started to stumble that the blister could be the cause— it’s not like him to look so flat and inaccurate with his secondary stuff— so I wasn’t surprised when he left. Still, the fact that he can keep good lineups in check without his best stuff just shows how incredible he is. All Miami managed was that unearned run early and the RBI blooper from Gordon in the fifth. And when things looked like they might go off the rails, Noah reared back and blew one past Yelich at 100 miles per hour. Who needs secondary stuff when you can do that?

But the blister situation isn’t ideal. Tonight was unique in that the Mets were resting several relievers, but they still can’t go through the season wondering if this recurring blister will blindside them at some point in the game, be it early or late. If having Thor skip a start and get 8 or 9 days off before he takes the mound again would help that blister heal fully (it clearly didn’t the first time), I would consider that. Give Gilmartin a start. Or give Montero one last chance as a starting pitcher.

Update: Apparently it was a fingernail issue on the same finger. That’s either really weird and bad luck, or just an extension of some issue with that finger. Either way, Noah didn’t seem concerned at all, joking that he now has an excuse to get a mani-pedi.

And I mean “one last chance,” because Montero has been so, so disappointing as a major league pitcher. He doesn’t throw strikes, which doesn’t add up when you look at what he did in the minors (and even in the spring). He doesn’t seem to trust his stuff. And his stuff isn’t elite like Thor’s, so he can’t rear back and throw triple-digit heat when he’s in trouble. Maybe he can still become a useful reliever or a decent fifth starter, but he’s running out of chances to show that. I’m also not very high on Edgin. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, and he doesn’t have great control. He also doesn’t take the best approach at times.

Blevins, however, has been terrific once again this season. He is never fazed by the pressure. I was baffled by Terry’s decision to have Montero intentionally walk a hitter with a 3-2 count rather than trying to get him to chase a pitch out of the zone, but Blevins came in and got ahead of an elite hitter before Conforto made the play of the night to keep the game even.

Conforto’s defensive gem, his base-hit, and his RBI sacrifice fly added up for another very nice game from the young outfielder. He’s really making a strong case for everyday playing time, and putting Curtis Granderson on the bench until he, Bruce, or Yoenis Cespedes cools off might be the right move.

Bruce had another nice day with a hit and a walk, and Duda walked twice to go along with a hit and the absolute bomb he hit to dead-center. If one of those guys is hitting the Mets are in good shape. If both of them are hitting? Good luck getting through this lineup, especially when several key guys (Cespedes, Neil Walker, Travis d’Arnaud) aren’t getting days off.

Rene Rivera has been good this season, and he continued his strong play with a 2-for-4 performance in this one. Obviously, his hits could have been better-timed, as he twice stranded runners in scoring position, but he’s here for his defense, so anything he can provide with the bat is just gravy. Travis d’Arnaud is hitting like an everyday catcher, so Rivera doesn’t need to do too much to thrive in his role as backup catcher and personal assistant to Noah Syndergaard.

A win tonight would have obviously been nice, but at least the Mets were able to give some guys a rest and avoid another marathon game— it certainly looked like we might see the team play deep into the night once again. Hopefully one of our other long-haired aces gets the team back to its winning ways in game three of this four-game set.

Up Next: Jacob deGrom will face Adam Conley when the Mets take on the Marlins on Saturday night at 7:10 in Miami.

The post Mets’ Winning Streak Snapped as Marlins Walk It Off in the Ninth appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets (2-1) took the rubber game of their season-opening series with the Atlanta Braves (1-2), winning 6-2 on Thursday night at Citi Field in Gotham.

Matt Harvey pitched for the Mets and was as good as anybody could have asked him to be in his first big league start since undergoing Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last summer. Harvey pitched 6.2 innings of three-hit ball, striking out four and walking none while allowing two runs on a pair of Matt Kemp home runs. “The Dark Knight” threw 77 pitches, 55 for strikes, while sitting around 94-96 MPH with his fastball and living comfortably in the high-80’s with his slider en route to his first win of the season and the 30th of his career.

With the afternoon rain subsiding in time for the game, Mets fans didn’t have to wait to see Harvey take the mound in the top of the first inning, but they didn’t get to see him there for long as the righty got through the top of the order in just six pitches. Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia got through a quick first inning of his own thanks to a diving catch from Nick Markakis to rob Jose Reyes and a ballpark that was just big enough to contain a deep drive from Yoenis Cespedes.

A double play in the second inning helped Harvey work around a Markakis single for another quick inning, and Garcia induced a ground ball of his own in the bottom half to erase Curtis Granderson. Both pitchers continued to keep the opposing hitters in check through the early innings, with Garcia working around a Cespedes double in the fourth to keep things scoreless.

The fifth inning, Harvey’s nemesis last season, got off to an ominous start for the New York pitcher when Matt Kemp crushed a solo shot to center leading off the frame. But rather than crumble as he did on so many occasions last season, Harvey struck out the next hitter and got a couple grounders to avoid further damage.

The Mets picked Harvey right back up in the bottom of the fifth, turning the game around on a Neil Walker single, a Jay Bruce walk, and a two-run double from Travis d’Arnaud that gave the hosts a 2-1 advantage. Pitching with the lead for the first time, Harvey tossed a clean top of the sixth and saw that lead grow in the home half when Garcia walked Cespedes and Wilmer Flores made him pay with a rocket to left that cleared the wall and stayed just inside the foul pole to put New York up 4-1. Walker doubled later in the inning for his second hit of the night, but the team was unable to cash in further.

After striking out Dansby Swanson and Freddie Freeman to begin the seventh, Harvey, still throwing hard and sitting at just 75 pitches, looked like he might go all night. In reality, he had just two more pitches, as Matt Kemp’s second bomb of the night and Terry Collins‘ quick hook combined to end Harvey’s night after 6.2 very encouraging innings.

After Jerry Blevins got a strikeout to close the top of the seventh, he Mets again responded to an Atlanta run with two of their own after the stretch. After reliever Chaz Roe hit Michael Conforto with a pitch, Reyes, perhaps in retaliation, sent one right back up the box for his first hit of the season. Asdrubal Cabrera singled to make it 5-2 and an error from Swanson on a Cespedes grounder allowed Reyes to score the sixth run of the night for New York.

Fernando Salas came in to pitch the top of the eighth for the Mets, and after a solid single, a cheap hit and then a slight misplay from Cabrera (ruled a single for Ender Inciarte) loaded the bases and brought the tying run to the plate, Salas fanned Swanson to retire the side and keep the Mets comfortably in front. Addison Reed pitched a much quicker ninth in relief of Salas, getting Atlanta 1-2-3 to seal the win.

Just about every Mets fan out there was nervous for tonight, and for good reason. Last season, Matt Harvey looked like an absolute shell of the pitcher we had come to know, and for no apparent reason. That mystery was solved with another mystery, as the Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnosis meant that Harvey would have to face a second major surgery and one that, unlike his Tommy John procedure, presented no clear, established road back for a flamethrower like him. This spring, Harvey showed some positive signs, but certainly wasn’t convincing, and heading into tonight’s start, nobody knew what to expect.

But when the game started, Matt Harvey looked like Matt Harvey. The real Matt Harvey. The no-flab, no-beard, all-business Matt Harvey, going after hitters, trusting his stuff, and finally having stuff he should trust. Mid-90s on the straight fastball, equally fast with the two-seamer, 88, 89 and even touching the 90’s with the slider— all with command. That Matt Harvey. And with the changeup being mixed in and the (very, perhaps unusually so) rare curveball in the arsenal as well, Atlanta’s hitters had no answers for the real Matt Harvey… aside from a slow, gimpy outfielder who, at least with the bat, looks like he might return to being the real Matt Kemp.

Is Harvey back to being a guaranteed ace every time he takes the hill? Of course not. It was one start, and there are a lot of factors that can’t go unmentioned. The Braves are a bad team with a weak lineup. Harvey, who struggled when he got to the middle innings last year, didn’t get his pitch count much past the point where he would normally be through four or five innings, and when he did get to that point, his night ended shortly thereafter with Kemp’s blast. He’s still not throwing as hard as he did in 2015 (and certainly not as hard as he did in 2013). He had more rest before this start than he will going forward. He wasn’t missing many bats (which would be a better indicator of future success, although I do think there is something to be said for pitching to weak contact and keeping pitch counts down), and didn’t avoid the home run ball that has plagued him since last season. So we can’t get ahead of ourselves and feel certain that he will dominate in his next start, and the ones beyond that.

But there’s not much more he could have done tonight to make Mets fans optimistic that the ace they once knew might be on his way back— while pitching as the #3 starter in what could be the best rotation in baseball. And remember, Dan Warthen doesn’t expect Harvey to have his best stuff until May. It might just be the third game of the season, but it’s a good day to be a Mets fan.

The only thing that really made Harvey not look like his old self was that the Mets actually got him some run support in this game. And with the Mets down by a run, the biggest hit came from a guy who has been scrutinized nearly as much as Harvey in Travis d’Arnaud. The catcher came up big with a two-run double that put the Mets in front. After Jay Bruce’s big game the previous night, seeing the two other guys with the most to prove this season step up in this game was encouraging.

The Mets only scored in two of their first 25 innings this year, so it was nice to see the team put together multiple productive innings in this one. Wilmer Flores showed why he’s going to be in the lineup against lefties this season, and a couple other guys had good nights as well. Cespedes has hit several balls to the track already this season; the home runs are coming.

It’s always nice to win a series, especially the first of the season. On to the next one.

Up Next: Mets righty Zack Wheeler and Marlins southpaw Wei-Yin Chen will make their season debuts on Friday night at Citi Field when Miami comes to town for a three-game series.

The post MMO Game Recap: Harvey Makes Triumphant Return as Mets Take Series from Braves appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Hey MMO Community, it’s been awhile. We’ve reached early February, which means a few things. It means we’ve reached the point in the season where my excitement for Knicks Basketball turns into disgust and depression.

On the bright side, it also means we’ve reached the point where I start getting geared up for some baseball. More specifically, it means we’ve reached the point where Keith Law, a lead baseball analyst for ESPN.com and one of the top player evaluation experts in the industry, has released his MLB Top 100 Prospect Rankings as well as his team-by-team rankings and positional rankings.

For the past two years, Keith’s been kind enough to give me and MMO an exclusive interview to discuss his rankings and evaluations with us as it pertains to the Mets, and he was generous enough to do so again this year. Keith gave me about 30 minutes of his time despite us only being scheduled for 15, and he didn’t even ask me to promote his book (although I threw a question in there at the end out of genuine interest).

I want to give a big shoutout to Keith, and invite you to check out what we discussed, including: Amed Rosario, Dom Smith and other key Mets  prospects, the MLB aces and guys like Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, Matt Harvey’s future, the outfield logjam and Michael Conforto in particular, the infield and some surprising thoughts on Asdrubal Cabrera, the situation behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud, and, of course, an outlook for the fast-approaching 2017 season. Without further ado…

Tommy Rothman, MetsMerized Online:  Hey Keith, thanks so much for doing this again this year. So first of all, you just released your top 100 rankings, and your team-by-team rankings, and positional lists. Obviously guys like Amed Rosario (#3) and Dominic Smith (#29) have been there before, and nobody was surprised to see them. But there are some other guys on the list who are newer to the farm system, including guys we just drafted, so I want to talk about them as well.

I guess we’ll start with Rosario and Smith. Rosario, I know you’ve been high on him for years, and the rest of the prospect-scouting world is kind of catching up to that a bit, he was also 5th on the MLB.com list. And then Smith, I think you actually had in the exact same slot as last year. Regarding Rosario, is this ranking a reflection that you’re higher on him than you were, or just that he’s closer to being ready?

Keith Law, ESPN: He’s closer to being ready. He’s continued to meet and exceed expectations for his age. Also with young shortstops, with a guy like that, I want to be sure the body’s gonna stay there too. Sometimes they just get bigger than you expect, and I’m not worried about that with him. I mean, he’s gonna be a big shortstop, there’s a lot of big shortstops, but he’s certainly not too big at this point. And he’s always had the physical skills, the raw tools to be a good defensive shortstop. But I feel a lot better about that now than I did a year ago.

Tommy: And then with Smith, I know for awhile the knock on him was that he did everything right, he had a great swing, but he didn’t hit home runs. But this year the power started to pop up. So what goes into his ranking staying the same? Is that a reflection that he’s gotten a year older and not necessarily advanced enough, or…

Keith: I mean there’s no negative to it, certainly. He stayed the same, I think a few guys passed him, maybe some guys who had explosive seasons. But there’s nothing different about him, there was nothing wrong with his year. He got to a neutral ballpark [as opposed to the Mets’ very pitcher-friendly Single A environments] and started to drive the ball more, and I think he’s capable of that.

I remember I saw him in high school, I said, “There’s 70 raw in there” [on the 20-80 grading scale scouts use to rate a player’s tools], and I still believe he’s gonna get to that. But some of this is approach-related too, in that I do think he’s learning still when to go the other way— because he obviously loves to do that— and when to pull the ball, looking for certain pitches, certain locations, in certain counts. It’s the maturation of a hitter, and he came in very young, remember he was 17 when he was drafted.

So I have no concerns, I still think he’s going to be the player that I’ve forecasted him to be since he was drafted. And by having him where he is… I don’t rank 1st base prospects typically very high, I would say him staying in that same range is… he’s still on target. He did what I expected him to do getting out of those two A-ball parks, which I think not only wrecked his power, but if you look at what he did in Savannah, all he did was hit the ball to left field, like “Well I can’t hit them out, I may as well hit singles the other way to left.” Okay, that’s great, you don’t have to do that anymore.

Tommy: Following up on Smith, he’s probably a couple years away, but Lucas Duda‘s contract is expiring this year, and unless the Mets are going to move Michael Conforto or Lucas Duda or David Wright to first, they might have a vacancy at first if they don’t bring back Duda. So do you think if he has a good year they’re going to push up Smith’s timeline and try to have him be the 1st baseman in 2018?

Keith: I think he gets to the Big Leagues this year anyway, so I don’t think it’s changing anything. Obviously if he goes to Triple-A and goes bananas, that might speed things up a bit and we see him in the Big Leagues in June. Conversely if he goes to Triple-A and he sucks—- I really don’t think he’s going to, but it’s possible, and that might change things too. Let’s say he goes to Triple-A and makes the same kind of small improvements we saw him make last year.

Some of what happened last year was him just getting into a better hitting environment, and we got a better picture of the hitter he really is, so let’s say he goes to Triple-A and is a little better. A little more power, still high OBP, still good defense, let’s say he gets up to 20 home runs, or is on pace for 20 home runs, and they say “Alright, we’ll call him up in August,” and try to give him some regular playing-time to ease him in so he can be the 1st baseman next year. I don’t think anybody really wants anymore to… you know when a guy is going to be your everyday player, you don’t want to have Opening Day be his debut in most cases.  So I could certainly understand them saying, “Let’s make sure we give this guy a cup of coffee, he’s gonna be on the 40-man anyway,” that all makes sense to me.

Tommy: And then so with the pitchers, Thomas Szapucki [#60] and Justin Dunn [#84], those are guys where unlike Gsellman, we haven’t seen them in the Majors and they’re more recent to the fans’ attention— and Anthony Kay, but obviously he’s going to be moved back with the Tommy John surgery—- so with those three guys, obviously they’re not in the same tier of prospects as Mets fans might be used to, between Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, but what are you expecting them to offer the Mets? Because last year, the knock was that the Mets had all this elite pitching but didn’t have much depth prospect-wise for pitchers, and it seems like that’s improved…

Keith: Right, I think it’s improved dramatically. I thought the draft was good, I mean Kay getting hurt… UConn blew him out, I have no problem saying that, because I was saying it all Spring, and then sure enough he got hurt. But he’ll be back at some point, Szapucki took a huge step forward last year. I love Dunn, I probably love him even more now after some pro guys got to look at him— obviously he didn’t pitch a whole lot— but just to come back and say, “Hey, this guy’s an unbelievable athlete, how the heck did they get this guy at the 19th pick?” I mean it was… people were feeling like it was tremendous value where they got him.

And Gsellman too, I gotta point out, I was always saying, “He’s a 5th starter, he’s throwing 90-91, he can sink it a little bit, he throws strikes… he’s a Big Leaguer, not very exciting.” But that guy shows up to the Big Leagues, and he’s bumping 95, 96. I even checked with the Mets, they were like “He didn’t throw that hard before.” I was like “Good, at least I didn’t whiff,” I hate that thought, that he comes up throwing 95 and I’m dismissing him. No, he really wasn’t! Just all of a sudden, he found a grade and a half of velocity, and now it’s 95, 96 and he can still sink it and get ground balls and throw a lot of strikes, and when your arm speeds up often your off-speed stuff gets a bit better too. He’s… it’s funny, I can’t think of a comparable in terms of career trajectory like that.

But it’s really fun, I think it’s really exciting, a guy who was totally an afterthought, for me and probably for a lot of people outside the Mets organization, who thought “Gsellman? Yeah, take him in a trade, he’s fine, just a guy,” you know, now he’s known. I don’t even know if they would trade him. I think they’ll use him, I think he’ll probably get his 30 starts in over the course of the season if he stays healthy, and obviously if he shows up throwing 95 in March.

Tommy: Yeah, the guy he reminds me most of in terms of trajectory, is actually the guy he looks like, deGrom—

Keith: Yes!

Tommy: —where you’re like, “OK, he’s an OK player,” and then he gets to the Big Leagues and he’s getting everybody out.

Keith: I remember seeing deGrom’s first Big League start, and I’m sitting there in Bristol in the green room watching the fastball move, and I’m like, “Sh*t!” I mean I had notes from Mets people and nobody told me he could do that, they told me he threw hard and that he had a real breaking ball, and that he was hyper-athletic, I mean everything they said was right, but this guy’s throwing two-seamers at 93 that are going to break bats, that’s a hell of a lot more exciting than I thought he was.

Tommy: And now for Seth Lugo, he was kind of disappointing as a reliever, but when they put him in the starting rotation, he really took off and was important down the stretch. And I know, I’ve read a lot of articles about how his curveball—

Keith: Isn’t it great?

Tommy: —is pretty legendary, but yeah, he’s getting kind of overlooked in the discussion, between Wheeler and Gsellman, for who’s going to be the fifth starter. But there’s Lugo, he could be the fifth starter, he could go to the pen… what are your thoughts on him?

Keith: Well, I wanna talk specifically about that curveball issue. We think that’s good, right? The high spin rate sounds good, it looks good. I have said, and obviously this is part of— I have a book coming out, called Smart Baseball, and I talk about Statcast quite a bit towards the end, because it’s kind of the next big thing— we are still learning what much of this means. And is the fact that he has this extremely high spin rate curveball [the highest ever]… does that make it more effective?

And it looks fine now, obviously, and he’s not… he’s not data, he’s a pitcher, right? You have him already, you may as well roll him out there and see what it’s like. I am not willing to say, “This guy’s got an unbelievable spin rate on his curveball, therefore it’s going to be good.”

If I were the Mets, I would say… first they have to get him throwing it more, part of the problem is he just didn’t throw it that often. And then find a role that allows him maybe to maximize it if it turns out it is that effective. That might still be a bullpen role. That’s probably what he is, but with the caveat that he just hasn’t thrown that curveball that much. Even in the minors, that was just not an emphasis pitch for him. Now maybe he goes to Triple-AAA, starts for awhile, throws 20 breaking balls a game, and it changes the entire pitcher that he is, I mean that would be comparable to Gsellman throwing 95 all of a sudden, and then you sort of have to erase everything you had on him before.

Tommy: So obviously with Thor and deGrom, and then Matz who had that horrible start against the Marlins but was then pitching like an All-Star for a couple months, with each passing year you kind of know you’re going to get great pitching from them. But with Harvey he was concerning last year before the injury [Thoracic Outlet Syndrome] because he was pitching poorly. I know for me it was less concerning after the injury, because it would have been more of an issue if he was pitching horribly with no explanation. But I know TOS is not like Tommy John where it seems like, you go get it, you take a year off, you get back. Here there’s not much of a track record, so I guess… what do you think the Harvey situation is shaping up to be like?

Keith: I don’t know. I really don’t know, because I don’t think we have a ton of comparisons, and obviously we haven’t seen him come back and see what he looks like, does all the old stuff return, is he still able to pitch pain-free, at the same velocity that he was beforehand, I don’t know. I mean, if I were a Mets fan, not that I need to sow concern among Mets fans, you seem to be good at doing that all by yourselves, but you know, I would look at that rotation and say, that’s not the most durable group right now.

And Thor has been durable, but obviously he had the little elbow— what did he call it— inflammation. And Matz is just fragile, he’s great when he’s healthy, but he’s [dealt with ailments] quite a bit over the years, so look, this guy is good when he’s healthy, but his track record of durability is basically non-existent. So if you can set yourselves up to bank on him for 18 starts, and then you’re covered for the rest, and obviously if he gives you more that’s great… that’s fine. But don’t go into the season thinking you’re getting 30 starts out of Steven Matz, because he’s never done it before.

The flip-side is, now with the emergence of Gsellman, the return of Wheeler, maybe you’ve got 7 starters you can mix and match to keep guys healthy, or just to plan ahead, because someone’s gonna break down, someone’s gonna get hurt, now we at least have the inventory here to soak up those innings and not just be handing them to Triple-A cannon-fodder guys.

Tommy: Right, I always tell people when they ask “what are you going to do with the 7 starters,” I say that that’s probably gonna resolve itself unfortunately, you’re not gonna have all 7 healthy all at the same time…

Keith: Right. This was the… when they traded Michael Fulmer, I said “Look, Fulmer’s a really good prospect, you’re getting 2 months of Yoenis Cespedes,” not knowing Cespedes was going to go all Babe Ruth the next couple weeks, right?  But Mets fans kept saying, “We have enough pitching, there’s never gonna be room for him in the rotation.” Well, really? You know, come back at me bro! I’m not hearing from you lately.

You would have plenty of room for Michael Fulmer in your rotation. You can’t have enough of those guys. Doesn’t mean you don’t trade them, you absolutely do, there will come a point where you learn something about them where you say “Alright, well why don’t we give this guy up,” or you certainly say, “We are going to use this pitching depth to upgrade the roster somewhere else,” but accept that there will always come an opportunity where that guy would have pitched for you. There will come a day where the Red Sox will look back and say, “Look, we should have kept Michael Kopech” [instead of trading him for All-Star Chris Sale]. If he stays healthy, they’re gonna look at him the way you guys look at Fulmer right now.

Tommy: And similarly in terms of a logjam in the outfield, obviously if Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares all stay healthy and you have to bench one of them, that’s a good problem to have… I mean the way I look at it, Cespedes is obviously going to play every day, and Bruce and Granderson, they’re not going to sit on the bench, I mean their weaknesses against lefties, Conforto shares, so the way I look at it, I expect it to be Cespedes, Granderson and Bruce, every day, Lagares as a fourth outfielder. And I almost think, if Conforto isn’t going to be playing every day, it might be better to have Nimmo, who kind of is a fourth outfielder, to be that bench outfielder and hopefully have Conforto raking in Triple-AAA and… but yeah, what do you think they will do, and what do you think they should do?

Keith: I think they will do the wrong thing. Collins will do the wrong thing. And I think the front office is doing the wrong thing. Why Terry Collins is being given final say over playing Conforto I have no idea. I think you play Cespedes and Conforto in the outfield every day, and you plan around those two guys. Everything else has to flow from them.

Cespedes obviously, that’s not an issue. But Conforto has to play every day! For me that’s step one. I mean, you know he rakes against right-handers— at least when he’s healthy he does—  and it’s not that he doesn’t hit lefties, he hit lefties in college, he hit lefties OK in the Minors, they just never gave him a chance in the Big Leagues. And he’s never going to learn if you don’t play him. So, you make sure those two guys are getting your everyday at-bats, and you move forward from there.

I agree with what you said on Nimmo, he’d be fine on the bench as a fourth outfielder, he can fill in a bit in center, he can certainly play right, you just don’t want him to face a good lefty. You don’t want him to face many lefties at all, really. That’s the one thing you’d be concerned about, with him as your fourth, but it’s not like they have many options anyway who would be able to fit that, play multiple positions… and you know Lagares can play all three, he’s not going to hit as much. I think with Nimmo, there’s more bat, he’s probably better suited to that job.

Tommy: Well with Conforto, you were always high on him and he was incredible at the start of the year until May… but he only hit .242 against righties last year, and only hit .104 against lefties, so I guess… obviously if he had kept that early production up, no one’s having this discussion about when does he play, where does he play, but because he struggled it does seem like more of a question-mark to play him every day so… what do you think went into that slump, and are you not concerned by it?

Keith: Well he was also hurt at some point after that too, so I’m not sure, I’ll put it this way, I have a feeling, if he’s just getting— oh, the other thing I heard from people in the organization too, they felt the fact that Conforto was not being given opportunities to face lefties really negatively affected his swing, particularly his stance, they felt he wasn’t keeping his front hip closed as well as he should be, I think this is sort of a turn-the-page opportunity, to get him back out there, let him play every day starting in Spring Training, you know… he’s getting 2 at-bats per game at the beginning but he’s facing righties, he’s facing lefties, he’s swinging consistent, he’s fully healthy, and this is all forgotten. But this is one of the better hitting prospects they’ve produced in a while, and if they screw this up, it is to their tremendous detriment as an organization.

Tommy: One other guy whose stock probably fell last year is Travis d’Arnaud. He’s not getting younger, so every year it probably gets a bit more frustrating for Mets fans, but he still does have talent and his good moments… I don’t think you’d still call him a prospect, but how do you evaluate him as a young player at this point?

Keith: Right. Yeah, I mean, look… my issue with him… one year I think I had him ranked in the top 10 overall, I said this is an offensive catcher, he’s good enough in that he can catch and throw, he’s gonna have power and he’s gonna hit, might not have a great on-base percentage, but a catcher with that kind of offensive production is an All-Star. But he hasn’t been healthy since. And now if you look back, kind of all the way back to when he was first drafted by the Phillies, it’s just been one injury after another. He’s had back issues, finger broken, a knee issue, a concussion, I think more than one concussion, I just don’t know if I could ever count on him to stay healthy as a catcher, and I just don’t know if there’s enough offensive production there anywhere else he’s likely to play, which is probably a corner outfield spot, which is the last thing they need at this point.

Tommy:  One thing I think we were all stunned by, because we knew he was at least OK with catching and throwing, was last year his throwing took a huge step back. Did that come out of nowhere for you as well?

Keith: Yeah, it was awful, yeah. I was shocked. I certainly didn’t see that coming. If you told me he’s gonna have trouble throwing or trouble receiving, I’d have said “eh, receiving, it’s probably not a strength.” I thought there was no reason he couldn’t get better at it. But I was absolutely shocked at how bad he was at throwing last year. And it made me wonder, “Oh, is he hurt again? Something’s bothering him, and that’s what’s affecting his throwing, the accuracy…” I don’t know, the guy’s just always hurt.

Tommy: So one place where they are seemingly set— the infield is obviously pretty strong. I know Asdrubal Cabrera, who you weren’t as high on, raised his stock. Reyes raised his stock, Walker had a big year although the back injury is a concern, and you’re not counting on Wright health-wise but he’s still there, and Duda hits when he’s healthy, so they probably have more infielders than they can start at one time. And again, that always resolves itself because of the injuries. But how do you evaluate their Major League infield?

Keith: I think Cabrera, still, I think it was a terrible signing, he’s an awful defensive shortstop, it still shocks me that they’re willing to tolerate him out there. I understand good positioning can cover some of that, you’re just giving up outs by playing him out there. And I understand Rosario’s coming, I’m sure they’re hoping that he’s going to take that job sooner than later, it just doesn’t excuse that contract. The thing I’m interested to see is, Gavin Cecchini‘s had throwing problems that got worse last year not better, and I think that’s moved him off shortstop, probably permanently, and so, can he be OK at 2nd base? He’s still erratic, it’s a mental thing, like a yips-type situation, not an arm strength situation, because he used to be fine.

I think all along the plan was going to be for him to take over at short or at second, maybe this year. Obviously Walker coming back, accepting the qualifying offer, changes that, but it’s probably not the worst thing for Cecchini to let him go back to Triple-AAA for awhile and just try to get some consistency. It’s a shorter throw, it’s an easier throw, maybe that takes care of the problem. I hope so, because I think he can really hit, he’s a great kid, but that’s the one thing to watch for with the infield situation this year, is that maybe he ends up taking over for Walker at some point, especially if Walker doesn’t perform, if he comes back and he’s not healthy. He was great last year, good last year, but maybe he comes back and the back issue’s still there, and gives them cause to consider making a change.

Tommy: I’m surprised you say Cabrera… I remember that was your problem when we spoke last year, his defense, but from the eye-test first of all, he seemed definitely solid out there this year. And with the stats, on FanGraphs they had him positive defensively and Baseball Reference had him like exactly as a net zero… do you really still think he’s awful defensively? I mean…

Keith: Oh yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. He’s awful defensively. He’s barely mobile there. And I mean, look, you talk to Mitchel Lichtman [creator of the UZR stat], you talk to the BIS guys [Baseball Info Solutions], they tell you not to look too much into a single year of those stats. And the Mets do position well. They’ve been a very analytics-forward franchise for awhile now, and they’ve probably just had him in better spots. It’s not like the guy… the guy was never a good defensive shortstop, he has not been a good defensive shortstop since he was in the Seattle system, and what was that, nine years ago now?  And it’s not like he got better at some point, and certainly at his age there would be no rational reason to expect him to become a capable defensive shortstop, when he’s been below-average for so many years.

Tommy: I guess it just seems like he’s a good defender because he makes all the plays when he gets to it, he has good hands and everything, a good arm.  Anyway, where do you see the Mets in terms of further moves this summer, in terms of aggression and ability to add to the roster. They weren’t aggressive with guys outside the roster, and didn’t do much at the deadline aside from the Bruce trade. Obviously the deadline was also their low point record-wise, when it made the least sense to go for a deep playoff run, but yeah, where do you see them this year in terms of being buyers?

Keith: Well it seems like they don’t have a ton of financial flexibility remaining at this point [after their other moves]. If you’re asking from the competitive standpoint, it seems like the Nationals are a bit better on paper, I think they really certainly are better on paper, but I don’t think the difference between the two is big enough that the I would say the Mets are in a bad situation. They’re a little bit behind, but it’s a situation where they could close the gap by playing the right guys. If Conforto’s gonna get 600 plate appearances and not 300, that makes a huge difference in what I would project for their runs scored output this year. I think there’s… yeah, there’s a talent gap, but it’s not insurmountable, especially if the Mets just do the best they can with deploying the assets who are already inside the organization.

Tommy: So what’s your Mets prediction in terms of the division, where they are… your overall outlook for them this year?

Keith: I probably have them in second place. I’ll take a deeper look in March, I just came out of the prospect stuff, so I haven’t done any kind of deep dive on anything like projected standings for this year. But they’re clearly better than three of the clubs in their division. Do I think they’re better than the Nationals right now? Probably not. You know, I think they’ve got some issues of their own making, and obviously the Nationals have decided they’re all in at this point.

The Nationals certainly only have one big roster deficiency I can see and that’s a closer, which is probably the least important thing, and something they might be able to fix on the fly, whereas the Mets maybe have a few more issues, but I could also paint a scenario for you where the Mets get a little healthy, a little luck, play the right guys, and end up neck-and-neck with the Nationals. I don’t think there’s that big a gap between the teams.

Tommy: I meant to ask about the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton… Knowing what I do about the prospects, from your rankings and such, it seemed like a huge overpay. Did it seem like an overpay to you and the prospect experts out there? Were you surprised?

Keith: It was, I think that they sold low on Giolito in particular. I think they just decided for whatever reason they just weren’t going to get the same production out of him… I mean, a year ago this guy was the best pitching prospect in baseball, he’s still close to it. I think he’s gonna be great in Chicago, I think they’ll end up regretting that deal as a whole and he’ll be a major reason for it.

That said I think they’ll get value in Eaton, his contract’s obviously unbelievable, so they were trading for that, in addition to trading for the player. He makes them a better team right now, I think they’re better now with Eaton as an everyday outfielder than they were with Giolito in their rotation, because Giolito’s still developing, and Eaton is ready. We know what Eaton is, even if he’s only a 3 or 4-win player the next few years, he makes the Nationals better and you can more than justify the deal.

Tommy: I think that’s all I have for the Mets. One question for you, when does your book come out?

Keith: April 25th.

Tommy: And what is it about? I know the title is Smart Baseball, but more specifically?

Keith: It’s a book for the readers who have asked me over the years, what’s a book I can read myself, or pick up and give to my friend, my dad, to learn about the basics of sabermetrics. If you’re saying… “Keith, you say pitcher wins are useless, RBIs are useless, on-base percentage is good, and I agree, but I don’t understand all of this stuff,” … this is the book for that.

I talk about why the old stats don’t work, what some of the newer but still pretty basic stats are you can use as a fan, especially with how players are valued, and also talk about things like Statcast as I mentioned earlier, because I think that’s really gonna change the conversation over the next 5 to 10 years, but also potentially increase the gap between what we know, as fans and the media, and what the teams know internally about player values.

Tommy: So it’s bridging the gap between “Baseball for dummies” and “Baseball for complete nerds.”

Keith: Yeah, I was aiming for something very specific. This is not a math book, I didn’t want that, I didn’t think people wanted that. I thought people would want something that was… you know, I’m explaining things in very rational terms, but hopefully lively enough to still be readable, and still convince you, if you’re one of those people who says, “Trevor Hoffman had 600 saves, so he’s a Hall of Famer,” you should walk away and say, “Eh, that’s not a good argument.” You might still want him to be a Hall of Famer, that’s fine, but you’re gonna have to come up with a better argument.

Tommy: Alright, that’s all I have for today. Thanks again for doing this!

Keith: Of course, no problem. Take care!

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Again, I want to give a huge shoutout to Keith, and to you as well if you have taken the time to read through this bulky interview. Hopefully this has you even more geared up for the Mets to get back on the diamond. Stay tuned for some follow-up content such as “Main takeaways” and “Things we’ve learned.” Keith certainly didn’t hold back, and I didn’t necessarily agree with him on everything— I’m sure you’ll all have your own opinions as well, so leave your thoughts below!

The post MMO Exclusive: Keith Law Talks Mets Prospects, Season Outlook with Metsmerized Online appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets and Giants will call on their aces in Wednesday night’s NL Wild Card Game at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard will face Madison Bumgarner in the win-or-go-home clash.

The Mets have Thor and a lot of momentum, but they still have their work cut out for them. What are some keys to winning this pitchers’ duel?

Keys for Syndergaard: Preparedness, Effectiveness and Efficiency

For the Mets, it all starts with Noah Syndergaard. Thor is an incredible pitcher looking to extend what has been an incredible season. When he is on, he is great. He is usually on, which is what makes him great. But much like the Mets with Bumgarner, the Giants’ chances of winning revolve largely around things going wrong for Noah.

Noah needs to understand what can and can’t happen here if the Mets want to win. He needs to know his weaknesses.

We all know that Thor struggles mightily holding runners on base, although he has gotten better at it lately. He and (presumably) Rene Rivera must continue to be mindful of the runners, but there are two bases you don’t have to worry about opponents stealing: First and Home. Noah needs to keep runners off base, especially early in innings so that he can focus on getting outs and not necessarily strikeouts.

When Syndergaard needs to chase strikeouts, it exacerbates another problem: pitch counts. Noah can’t help the Mets win if he’s not on the mound. One of Thor’s least effective starts came in a 98-pitch outing against the Giants, in which he lasted 5.2 innings. One of his best starts of the year came in another 98-pitch outing against the Giants. That time, Noah went 8 innings. If Thor is throwing 20 pitches per inning early in the game, that spells trouble for New York.

But if Noah can get through the early innings unscathed, the Mets are in very nice shape. In the first four innings, Noah’s ERAs are 1.80, 2.10, 3.99 and 5.20. From the fifth inning on, his ERAs are 1.35, 1.57, 1.32 and zero. If Syndergaard gets to the fifth without falling behind, he’ll only get better, as long as he has enough left in the tank to stay on the mound. Quick, scoreless innings in the first half of the game will put Noah and the Mets in great shape, and he can get those zeroes by getting ahead in counts, getting the leadoff guy in each inning, and doing all he can to control the running game.

If Noah can check all the boxes needed for him to be successful on Wednesday night, the Mets have a great chance to advance. Again, he is an ace. He is usually great. When it comes to the guy on the mound, the Mets just need to hope it’s business as usual in this one-game playoff.

Keys to beating Bumgarner: Get Him Early, Get Him Late, Get it Over the Wall

Madison Bumgarner is a great pitcher with an incredible playoff record. The last time he pitched in the Wild-Card game, he threw a complete-game shutout to send the Pirates home and send the Giants on their way to a championship.

Bumgarner doesn’t have Thor’s nasty stuff, but he has fewer weak spots and bad habits/trends, which, combined with his incredible résumé, likely has Giants fans focusing almost entirely on beating Thor rather than avoiding potential trouble on the mound. There is a good chance we will see a great outing from both pitchers. And while there might be a larger chance of a truly bad outing from Thor than Bumgarner (and those chances are still low for both pitchers), I think Bumgarner and the Giants might be more prone to defeat should the game stay neat and clean.

Bumgarner has a good but relatively modest 3.18 ERA in the first inning. If you don’t get to him then, he usually settles down. The Mets, for their part, are a dangerous team in the first inning, having scored right off the bat in 49 games this season. Falling behind would put Noah and the Mets in a hole, but New York taking the early lead might put the Giants in an even bigger one. The Mets’ chances of winning when leading after each inning are 71, 73, 77 and 85 percent for the first four innings, which is very high (for reference, the Giants sit at 75, 64, 66 and 73 percent, and the gap only grows in the Mets’ favor as the game goes on).

If the Mets can’t score early, however, that puts the pressure back on Thor. But come the late-middle innings, Bumgarner becomes vulnerable once again, with his ERA ticking up to 2.65 in the 5th before spiking to 3.41 in the 6th and 5.09 in the 7th. The deeper Bumgarner goes into the game, the more hittable he gets. And if he doesn’t go deep, the Mets might get a crack at the embattled Giants bullpen.

I say “might,” however, because San Francisco, like New York, is in win-or-go-home mode. This means that all hands are on deck, and Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are therefore liable to be used in relief. So getting to Bumgarner to at least some extent is still a huge key for New York, although it certainly helps the Mets’ cause that Terry Collins has a better bullpen than Bruce Bochy.

Fortunately on that front, Bumgarner is very prone to the home run, having allowed 26 this season. The Mets, meanwhile, ranked fifth in the MLB when it came to hitting them over the fence.

All this goes to say that if Noah Syndergaard can turn in a strong, long outing, the Mets are in great shape, even against one of the best playoff performers of his generation.

Get Lucky. It’s One Game

One game. Win or go home. The sample size here is tiny and the ramifications are huge. The margin for error is non-existent.

Yoenis Cespedes or Buster Posey might hit a home run with nobody on base, or they might connect for a grand slam. Or maybe they’ll both go hitless, and somebody at the bottom of the order will have a huge game. Stars might come up small and low-profile guys might come up big. An error at the wrong time, a lousy call from the home plate umpire here and there, a bad hop, a blooper or a rocket that finds a glove might decide the game. A lot of it might just come down to plain old luck.

The division race has been over since July, so for this Mets team, they’ve been fighting all these months for Wednesday night’s game. A loss, and the Mets are done. A win, and we’re back in the NLDS, a couple good series away from another crack at a championship.

Baseball isn’t designed to come down to just one game. But for the Wild Card teams, it will. Both teams have a good chance of winning. We can look at the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and both starters and figure out the most likely factors to generate either outcome. But in one game, it doesn’t matter what has happened or what should happen, or what 1,000 computer simulations say is most likely to happen.

All that matters is what happens on Wednesday night. It’s gonna be Wild.

The post Syndergaard and Bumgarner to Square Off: Keys to a Pitcher’s Duel appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets (59-59) fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks (49-69) by a score of 10-6 on Monday night in Phoenix. The loss drops the Mets to 3 games back of both the St Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins in the NL Wild Card Race (the Mets also trail the Pirates by 2.5 games).

Bartolo Colon struggled on the hill for the Mets, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 9 (hard) hits and 2 walks, striking out just 1 in 4 innings. Bart did draw his first career walk, stripping him of his MLB record for most career at-bats without a walk.

The Mets fell behind early and trailed the entire game, which has happened far too many times this season. Jose Reyes walked to lead off the game, but with Reyes on the move to second, Curtis Granderson‘s rocket down the line found the glove of Paul Goldschmidt for what became an easy double-play. In the bottom of the first, TJ Rivera made an error to start the frame and the Diamondbacks strung together 4 hits to plate 3 runs, giving them a lead they would never relinquish.

The Mets got a pair of singles to lead off the top of the second, but a double-play killed the rally before it got going, helping Robbie Ray through the inning. New York did get on the board in the top of the third when Travis d’Arnaud singled, Colon reached first when a sacrifice bunt turned into a throwing error, and Reyes singled TDA home, but the Mets could not capitalize further, with Colon being stuck on third on a fairly deep Jay Bruce fly ball that would have scored any other player in the MLB.

The Diamondbacks got the run right back in the bottom of the third to make it 4-2, and after Colon’s first-ever walk set up another RBI single from Reyes, Arizona again erased the Mets’ progress with a run in the bottom of the fourth. Erik Goeddel replaced Colon in the fifth and allowed a pair of RBI doubles that put the hosts up 7-1, and the Snakes later stretched that to 8-2 with a run against Seth Lugo.

The Mets got a little something going in the top of the 7th with singles from Granderson and Neil Walker and walks from Bruce and Wilmer Flores forced in a run and set up a bases-loaded situation with no outs and the Mets trailing 8-3, but RBI sacrifice flies from TJ Rivera and Ty Kelly were of little use this late in the game. Hansel Robles gave up a  2-run shot to Yasmany Tomas in the bottom of the 8th to make it 10-5, and Neil Walker’s solo blast leading off the top of the 9th was just a speed bump for Arizona as they closed out their 4th victory against the Mets in as many tries, 10-6.

Colon just didn’t have anything in this game, simple as that. The D-backs hit him, and they hit him hard. Arizona remains the only MLB team that Colon has never beaten.

The Mets hit some balls well against Robbie Ray, but had some rotten luck, with everything finding a glove or slicing just foul. As usual, the Mets also squandered a couple big chances with runners in scoring position, and while 6 runs on 12 hits will usually be enough with our pitching staff, it wasn’t on this day.

Wellington Castillo killed the Mets tonight with 4 hits, 2 runs scored and 2 RBI. This was his first game back from the paternity list, which means his newborn child appears to be a good luck charm and also means that I forgot to put him back in my fantasy baseball lineup. Rats. Paul Goldschmidt also killed us tonight with 3 well-struck hits (including a triple and a double), but he kills everybody.

Travis d’Arnaud had a terrific game for the Mets with 3 hits and is suddenly red-hot. Neil Walker continued to be red-hot with 3 hits of his own including the solo home run in the final inning.

It’s one thing to lose games, but it’s downright deflating to give up crooked numbers in the first inning and play a feeble game of catch-up the rest of the way. It’s hard to watch, and it’s happened twice in the last four games and several times this season. When the Mets are doing well, they’re usually the ones striking in the first inning or two. Right now, they’re letting other teams set the tone. That has to change.

The Mets are now 0-4 against the Diamondbacks. They’re 3 games out of the playoffs, so that’s the difference right there. You have to beat the bad teams. The Mets have gotten beat over and over against by this bad team, and that has to change starting Tuesday night.

Up Next: Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 2.75 ERA) will face Braden Shipley (2-1, 2.96) ERA when the Mets take on the Diamondbacks at 9:40 on Tuesday night in Phoenix.

The post Mets Trail All The Way In 10-6 Loss To Diamondbacks appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

He’s Back!

The Mets (29-21) beat the White Sox (27-25) by a score of 1-0 on Monday afternoon at Citi Field.

Matt Harvey tossed a gem for the Mets, allowing 2 hits and a walk in 7 shutout innings, striking out 6 on 87 efficient pitches.

Harvey went up against Chicago stud Jose Quintana (who the Mets originally signed in 2006), who matched zeroes with The Dark Knight for most of the day.

The Mets stranded a few runners in the first six innings, including Ty Kelly, who was left on first after his first career hit. The White Sox did little against Harvey (who got help from a great diving stop by Wilmer Flores) in the early going, and the game was scoreless going into the 7th. But the game turned right there. After Harvey worked out of a jam in the top of the inning, Neil Walker led off the bottom of the frame with a solo shot that would ultimately decide the contest.

Addison Reed tossed a quick, scoreless eighth, and Jeurys Familia, who got rocked in consecutive non-save-situation appearances against the Dodgers this weekend, posted a perfect ninth to get back on the horse and end the ballgame.

What a big game for Harvey. After so many bad outings to start the year, he finally had a solid, steady performance today. It was his first time going into the seventh and his first time allowing zero runs. He got hit a bit harder after the first time through the order, and almost let the game get away from him the third time through, so he’s not out of the woods just yet. But this was a very, very encouraging performance with obviously stellar results.

Familia had a big outing as well, retiring the side in order to pick up his 32nd straight regular season save and ease whatever doubts may have arisen during the Dodgers series. He’ll need to get his slider going soon, but Dan Warthen can fix any slider in the land, so I’m not too worried.

It was another quiet night for the bats, but it’s hard to do much against guys like Quintana (let alone the Kershaws). Harvey kept the Mets in the game until somebody could get the big hit and eventually Walker got that hit, continuing his recent hot streak after a rough start to the month of May.

Rene Rivera is doing a great job with this pitching staff, and making a great case for some major playing time.

The Mets will look to make it two in a row against the ChiSox on Tuesday at 7:10 PM when Steven Matz (7-1, 2.36 ERA) takes on Mat Latos (6-1, 4.06) in New York.

The post Harvey and Familia Carry Mets To 1-0 Win By Still Being Really Good At Baseball appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets (26-18) cruised to a 7-1 win over the Nationals (27-18) in the opening game of a three-game set in the nation’s capital.

Bartolo Colon threw a gem for the Mets on the eve of his 43rd birthday. The Ageless One allowed 1 run on 5 hits in 7 quick innings, striking out 2 and walking 2 on 90 pitches.

The game was delayed an hour due to rain. Once things got underway, the Mets looked all set to jump on Gio Gonzalez early when Curtis Granderson singled to start the ballgame and Juan Lagares reached on a well-placed dribbler. But the Washington lefty held his ground, striking out David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes before getting Neil Walker to ground out and strand the runners. The Nats then took the lead in the bottom of the first on singles from Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman.

But after a disappointing start to the game, the heart of the order made up for it, and then some. After Granderson was plunked in the third and Lagares got his second hit, Wright continued his recent revival with a three-run homer to left that put the Mets in front. Consecutive singles from Cespedes, Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera plated a fourth run and Eric Campbell made it 5-1 with a sacrifice fly.

The Mets extended their lead in the 5th on back-to-back solo shots from Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker, and the 7-1 score held the rest of the way, as Jerry Blevins and Logan Verrett tossed scoreless frames in relief of Colon.

What a great job by Bartolo. He made it all look easy tonight, despite being squeezed at times by the umpire, who had a strange and inconsistent strike zone to say the least. Colon gave the Mets 7 innings which was huge in that it let Terry Collins rest his bullpen— and the big righty probably could have gone eight or nine.

UPDATE: Bartolo felt some back stiffness, which contributed to his relatively early exit. He had no interest in hitting tonight, though. I don’t think the bat left his shoulder once.

UPDATE: Bartolo said he told the Nationals’ catcher he promised not to swing. Actually. 

The Captain came up big as well. After failing to produce in the first inning with guys on base, he produced as much as possible in his next at-bat, plating both runners as well as himself. He made solid contact later in the game and looked good in the field as well. After a walkoff hit in the series against the Brewers, David looks to be on the right track. His blast tonight was his 240th, putting him 12 behind Darryl Strawberry for the franchise record.

Cespedes is just unreal. He now leads the league in home runs and RBI and has his batting average up over .300.

Walker’s home run was a nice sign, as he looks to be turning it around after a rough patch to start the month of May. With Lucas Duda out, Walker will need to step up in the #5 hole.

The Mets are now a half-game out of first place and will look to leapfrog the Nats on Tuesday night. Matt Harvey will take on Stephen Strasburg at 7 PM in DC.

The post MMO Game Recap: Mets Throw Early Party For Bartolo In 7-1 Win Over Nationals appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Earlier this week, I had the privilege of spending 40 minutes on the phone with ESPN Senior Baseball Writer Keith Law. Keith is a lead baseball analyst for ESPN.com and senior analyst for Scouts.Inc. He formerly worked in the front office of the Toronto Blue Jays. I interviewed Keith before last season and he graciously agreed to do it again with the 2016 season approaching. Check out what Keith had to say about the state of the Mets minor league system, their young core players, pitching, infielders, positional logjams, top prospects, and so much more. Then hop down to the comments and share your thoughts! Here we go:

Tommy Rothman, MetsMerized Online: Hi Keith, thanks a ton for agreeing to do this again this year. So I guess I’ll start with the farm system rankings. You just put out your MLB rankings, your top 100 rankings, and your team-by-team rankings. The Mets fell from number 4 last year to middle-of-the-pack this year. Obviously some of that is because they graduated guys like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto who are no longer “prospects,” but they also traded away some prospects to get the guys they added during the season. So how would you size up the state of the Mets’ farm system, not only in terms of the prospects who qualify for your rankings, but the young core in general?

Keith Law, ESPN: Well the young core’s a lot better, obviously, if you’re looking at most of the rotation. And if you’re looking at most of the rotation, it depends where you draw the line between who’s young and who’s not, you could argue that Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are still a part of that young core. I’ve always been a big Michael Conforto fan, I obviously ranked Noah Syndergaard very high the last couple of years. The only part of that young core I’ve never been particularly high on is Steven Matz, because the injury history is so bad.

But I think their young core is one of the strongest in the game, which will [enable] them to continue to contend even though they’re not gonna spend that much money— the ownership group has made it clear that they’re not gonna spend the way a New York club should spend. So it’s critical to continue to compete through the farm system. And they have plenty of pitching for right now— they have no pitching depth. But they have plenty of pitching for the present, and you do have a lot of position players coming, as some of their guys… say, David Wright‘s tenure comes to an end, or Lucas Duda they decide to let walk, which I’m sure they will, and replace with Dominic Smith. You’ve got replacements for most positions on the diamond. So I think they’re in really great shape, I wish they’d spend more money obviously, but if they’re not gonna do that, they’re still in a great position even after the trades.

Tommy: Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised to see that when Yoenis Cespedes fell back into their range financially, they realized it was the move they had to make and pulled the trigger. But they certainly won’t be competing for those longer-term deals. So with that in mind, you mentioned the pitching depth— they do have the pitchers now, but after they traded guys like Michael Fulmer and Casey Meisner for Cespedes, Tyler Clippard, and other pieces, in the event of injury, they don’t have as many young arms in the pipeline. So obviously young pitching is the Mets’ strength, but is it also something they need to shore up in terms of depth?

 Keith: I mean, if they have the opportunity to add prospects somewhere, sure, adding more pitching would be great. I don’t know if they’ll target pitching in the draft because they’ve never drafted that way, it’s always been “best player available” since Tommy Tanous took over as Scouting Director. I want them to continue to do that. But the strength of the draft this year is probably college pitching anyway, so if the right one happens to fall into their lap, great, they certainly need it. But they’re not really in a position where they’re going to be able to add pitching prospects.

It might make sense for them to target somebody who might be a good sixth starter for them this season, who could spend part of the year in Las Vegas, but who you figure is probably going to make 12 to 14 starts this year for the big league club because you always need that. I don’t know who that’s gonna be, it might have been Fulmer if they hadn’t traded him for Cespedes, but there was nobody backing him up, even if he were still there, you could probably still ask the question, ‘What if Fulmer gets hurt again, who’s behind him?’ And the answer would be, probably nobody.

Tommy: Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Paul DePodesta left a couple months ago for the NFL. What impact do you think that will have on the Mets organization and how they do things?

Keith: Well, I think that’s a big loss, because I think Paul was kind of a philosophical thought leader too, helping drive direction in the draft and player development, and not just losing his intelligence, but losing his voice in the room, could have a lot of impact. Because I think you really had a split camp there last year where folks in the front office didn’t want to trade from the prospect depth to make a short-term run because they were looking at a long-term run of contention with this young core— and they still are. So don’t trade from it unless you’re getting longer-term assets in return. Instead they traded who I thought was their two best pitching prospects at the time in Fulmer and Casey Meisner for rentals. Without DePodesta there, is there going to be a strong voice in favor of continuing to build from within as opposed to making those short-term trades, as opposed to signing a Michael Cuddyer? I don’t know the answer to that. I will say I retain very high confidence in the amateur scouting department because they’ve had such good results and produced prospect value and produced big leaguers over the past couple of drafts since Tanous took over, and I think they’ll be able to continue to do so.

Tommy: So like you said, you’ve never been high on Matz. Last year he didn’t make your top prospects list. Now you have him up there. Obviously it’s big that he could stay relatively healthy and it obviously helps his ranking that he pitched in the Majors, he pitched in the World Series… how do you analyze Matz, as an individual prospect but also among the Mets group? My personal opinion is that, well, I’m lowest on him of the four, or the five. What are your thoughts on him?

Keith: I would agree. I think he’s clearly behind the other guys. For stuff, it’s an above-average to plus fastball, a plus-or-better changeup, he will show you at least a solidly above-average breaking ball, it’s control more than command, and the delivery is still a little bit mechanical although it’s a million miles better than where it was in high school. But he has still yet to reach 150 innings in any regular season in his career, and he was drafted in 2009. And even last year, which was by his standards a full season, he was out twice with injuries that took him off the field for a period of time. And part of why he wasn’t on the list last year, and when I said it was kind of a fourth-starter type ceiling, and part of why he’s lower this year than Mets fans would have wanted him, is because I have no reason to believe he’s going to be a 180 or 200 inning starter, and certainly not on a regular basis. And a guy who pitches like a #2 starter, but only throws 140 innings a year, that’s not a #2 starter, that’s somebody who, by WAR, is going to produce more like a #3 or a #4.

If he hadn’t had— somebody asked where would I have him if he hadn’t had all the health problems, I said I wouldn’t have ranked him at all, because he would have been their #2 starter by now going into last season. It’s not that I don’t like him, but I have to be realistic about a guy who’s had this many injuries, some of which seem like they’re likely to recur, all of which I think adds up. Wheeler, Harvey, Syndergaard— who is like a machine— or Jacob deGrom, it’s funny, because three of those guys have had Tommy John Surgery, but we sort of shrug that off, whereas Matz it’s like almost anything he could break has broken at some point. And I feel bad for the kid, but we have to be kind of callous when looking at these guys’ futures.

Tommy: So if the Mets did need to make a move, or wanted to make a move, to get a major impact hitter or another asset— obviously Matz probably has the lowest trade value of the four, but he does still have value— is that the guy you think they would and should look to trade to make it happen?

Keith: I’ve never had that discussion with anybody in the front office, specifically in terms of trade value. I think my ranking of Matz has reflected their internal sense of Matz relative to the other pitchers, I think they’ve always had Syndergaard higher since he came into the system, obviously you know what they think of Harvey and deGrom, and I think they believe that Wheeler, as long as he’s back at 100% this year, is also going to be ahead of Matz. And I think Matz’s trade value is going to depend entirely on whether they find a trade partner undisturbed by his medicals. If somebody looks at him and says, ‘we’re comfortable with it,’ says that he’s gonna be healthy and he can throw 160 innings next year, then they’re going to get a really good return on him. It’s possible that there could be something we don’t know about, that would stop any potential trade. That’s the kind of thing we won’t find out— if ever— until there’s a trade out there that falls through because the other team saw something they really didn’t like. But there I’m just speculating…

Tommy:  Yeah, when I watched Matz in the playoffs, and I guess throughout the season, it seemed like he really was just a five-inning pitcher. He was fine, he was solid through five innings, but—

Keith: Yep. And that’s fine, if you’ve got the long guys in the bullpen. The Cubs have Adam Warren, and Travis Wood, and others, if you’ve got a couple of those guys, that’s fine. A five-inning starter as your nominal fifth starter is fine. I don’t know if the Mets are set up to have a five-inning guy as a fifth starter.

Tommy: So with deGrom, I would say he has the least— he doesn’t have Thor’s curveball, for instance. But he’s gotten it done two years in a row now. He’s shown that 2014 wasn’t a fluke. But sometimes you’re watching and you still don’t know how he does it, how they don’t manage to hit him. Do you think he’s a candidate for regression going forward? What are your thoughts on deGrom?

Keith: I’m all in. I don’t think he’s a candidate for regression. I think his fastball life is real, I think his aggressiveness is real, I’m a huge fan of anybody who’s that athletic on the mound, I think he adds value with his fielding, obviously he adds a little value with his hitting. But he can compete really well, he throws strikes, there’s some command, I think there might be even better command going forward, because he doesn’t have the same pitching experience as these other guys [deGrom used to be a shortstop], I’m a huge fan, and, no, I’m not worried about regression.

The only guy in the rotation— we’ve talked about Matz— of the other four, the only one I’d say I’m worried about, I don’t know what Wheeler’s going to look like, or be able to handle, in his first year back from Tommy John. But I was an enormous Zack Wheeler fan going all the way back to high school. If he’s still that guy, their rotation might be the best in baseball. With Matz as the five, Matz could be the best number five starter in baseball. I’m not worried about Thor, I’m really not worried about Harvey— Harvey gave us nothing to worry about last year— and I’m certainly not worried about deGrom. I think deGrom being better in the Majors than he was at any point in the minors is just a reflection of that he didn’t pitch a lot around Tommy John Surgery after signing, and I think the stuff picked up right around the time he got to the big leagues.

Tommy: Obviously with Harvey, his first full year, his second year overall in 2013, he had a monster season. Thor is going into that season now. What upside do you think he has, not going forward, but just for 2016 specifically?

Keith: Yeah, I think he could— look, I still think there’s growth here as a pitcher, I’ve talked in the past about how he’s a guy who seems to make gradual adjustments and come back to the curveball, which in high school was a 30 or a 35 (on the 20-80 scale), in the Blue Jays system was like a 40-45, around the time of the trade to the Mets it was average, or maybe a little less than average, but everybody liked where it was heading, and now, you’ve seen with Thor it was pretty consistently an above-average pitch for him [last season]. I know he was worth about 3 Wins Above Replacement in three-quarters of a season, I see no reason he can’t pitch at that level over a 200-inning season, because he’s a horse. He’s built like a horse, the delivery is easy, he repeats it, he does everything you want in a pitcher you’d ask to go out and throw 200 innings for you. And the command and control were better last year. That’s another guy— pitchers get to the Big Leagues with the Mets and they pitch better. And I don’t think that’s a fluke. We’ve seen this with a bunch of guys now. And I think that’s true of Thor too, where— could he be a 5 WAR pitcher over a full season? I think it’s within reach, as long as he’s healthy. And he’s always been healthy. He has the best track record of health of anybody in that rotation. Yeah, I think he could do it. (Note for reference: deGrom had a 4.7 WAR in 191 innings last season).

 Tommy: And then for the other main guy the Mets got in the R.A. Dickey trade, Travis d’Arnaud. Every year we think he can’t possibly have another freak injury, and then he gets hit by a ball a week in. When he’s on the field, I think the consensus amongst us fans is that his defense has been a bit disappointing, especially his throwing. But he’s still young. How would you evaluate him and his opportunity to grow this year and become more of a star all-around catcher?

Keith: I really wonder if his future is at catcher— and I said this last season too— because he can’t stay healthy. And he’s had at least one concussion, which last year I was concerned about just in a baseball sense, now I’m concerned, you know, in a human sense.

Tommy: Yeah.

Keith: So if you wanna remove him from that risk of injury, well if they were any other club, you could find a spot for him, first base, left field, but they’re full right now. I don’t know where you put him. Because they could put Kevin Plawecki behind the plate 140 games, and I think he’d be great in that role. He’s a better receiver, certainly, and I think he’s even more consistent in controlling the running game, but he doesn’t give you Travis’ potential for offense. I think Travis’ bat might play in left, and you might get him on the field more, it’s just not an opportunity that’s open to the Mets. So since he’s clearly going to be on the 25-man roster, my guess is he catches a bunch, gets hurt at some point, they’ll try to mix him in at other positions as they need to, if Duda needs a day off, or Conforto should go on the DL for whatever reason, they could just try d’Arnaud out there, maybe think long-term to see if there’s another opportunity. But I wonder if he’s a guy who ends up traded because they have guys at the other positions where he might play. He’s not gonna run Conforto off of left field, clearly. And if the defense is an ongoing concern— and I agree with you that it’s disappointing— maybe Plawecki ends up the long-term catcher instead.

Tommy: So you mentioned Conforto, I don’t think many people saw him arriving by July, establishing himself as a starter, and helping during the World Series run. So I know you were definitely extremely high on him when we talked last year, but were you surprised by how quickly he developed and got up to the Majors?

Keith: The only thing I was surprised about was the power output in the Big Leagues— and it was only half a season, so I don’t want to read too much into it— but otherwise that’s kind of what I thought he would be. I thought he was the best college hitter in the draft in 2014, I thought it was a great pick when they took him 10th overall, I thought his approach was really advanced when he worked through the low minors, and I was critical of the Mets when they started him in the Florida State League because he was too advanced for that. I thought he had a lot in common with [young Cubs slugger] Kyle Schwarber, in terms of proximity to the big leagues. Where Schwarber has the higher upside because he’s a potential catcher, I thought Conforto was further along. I was probably a little more surprised by how good Schwarber was as quickly as he was, than I was by Conforto.

Tommy: I think a lot of people will be surprised, when they look at your prospect rankings, by how high you have Wuilmer Becerra, because a lot of people who know him just know him as the throw-in in that amazing Dickey trade. But how close do you think he is to having a chance to contribute, either to the Mets or to another team if they decide to move him?

Keith: He’s probably three years away, I mean maybe it’s a little faster now because he’s 20. I thought it was a real breakout year for him, where he always had the ability— Mets people were stoked when they got him in the trade— but you knew it was a long-term play for them. The approach there is good enough, so that he can get to the strength and to the power. And you and I talked last year about what a terrible park Savannah is for power. So maybe Becerra gets out this year, gets to the Florida State League and starts to hit for a little more power, maybe the next year he gets to Binghamton and then the power really blossoms, because he’s out of those deadly A-ball parks that I think haunt a lot of those Mets hitters, where they get there and they really can’t hit for any power. My only real concern on him— other than that he’s young and that there’s some volatility there— no one is really confident in his outfield defense, so I think you’re just hoping he ends up playable, at either one of the corner spots. And then if he hits for the power I think he’s gonna have, it’s not really gonna matter.

Tommy: So with people worrying about defense with prospects, the idea that the NL might get a DH at some point, would that change the way you value prospects, just because you won’t have to say ‘he can start but he’d need to be on an AL team,’ would that be a big shift for you and other people who look at talent from a young age and factor in the fielding?

Keith: I can only speak for myself here, but I think it really wouldn’t affect the rankings because I try to make all my rankings team-agnostic, so that if I’m evaluating a player for an NL team, who looks like he’s going to have to be a DH, like Josh Naylor with the Marlins, I evaluate him exactly the same. His role is limited. He’s maybe a DH, he may be a first baseman, we’ll see. But it’s a bad body, and it could potentially end up at DH. And that’s going to drastically reduce his value, because we know replacement level is higher, anybody can DH. So it’s not gonna change that. It may actually change his market value, because you’re doubling the number of teams that could have an opportunity to play a player like that. Like where the Cubs look at a prospect like Daniel Vogelbach and say, ‘The kid can hit, but we have zero use for him.’

Tommy: The Mets have a lot of outfield depth, so one guy who’s kind of being forgotten about as a prospect is Brandon Nimmo, obviously they picked him very high several years ago, despite him having not— I don’t think he even played high school baseball.

Keith: Right. They don’t have it in Wyoming.

Tommy: So where would you say he is in terms of his development at this stage?

Keith: I would describe his development as kind of stalling out, where he got to double-A, and did not take a step forward. And it looks like he’s not taking a step forward, he moved to Vegas at the end of the year, and still didn’t hit well, and still didn’t find any power. And nobody seems to think he can play center field. So now you’ve got a corner guy, with some on-base ability, but no power, and isn’t really hitting for a high- enough average that you feel super confident in the OBP, and I don’t think that’s a regular anymore. When he was 19 and drafted, I could see the pick, but it has to come with power. And I don’t know if the lack of power is a hand strength issue, or— he had a lot of problems with his knees when he was younger, maybe he’s not generating that power from his legs— but at some point I have to look away from the body and just look at the production. And even in a more favorable power environment, he’s still not hitting for power. And given his age, and how long he’s been in the system, and especially the fact that he went to Vegas and didn’t find power, I just sort of feel like, I don’t know, maybe it’s not gonna be there. And that would make him a fourth outfielder. And probably a fourth outfielder soon, but nothing more than that.

Tommy: And now for the middle infield, obviously it’s going to look a lot different this year with Wilmer Flores bouncing around, and then Asdrubal Cabrera at short, and then Neil Walker instead of Daniel Murphy at second. So the first question is, whether you think they upgraded, downgraded, whether there’s much of a shift going from Walker to Murphy on both sides of the ball?

Keith: I’ll say I like Walker more than Murphy. I think Murphy was pretty bad defensively and I think it really cost them, maybe even more than the defensive metrics might reflect, because of the way they might have had to compensate with guys at other positions. Because he never really could play second base. They were just trying to find a spot for his bat, and I respect that approach, but it didn’t work. Walker can play second base. He’s not great, but he’s turned himself into a perfectly serviceable defensive second baseman.

Tommy: So speaking of defense— before I ask you about Cabrera— with Cespedes, he won a Gold Glove last year in the AL, in left field, obviously those aren’t much of a reliable stat, but he has the best arm in baseball and he has good speed. But people view him… statistically there are a lot of people who argue he’s a disaster in center field. Do you think there’s room for his physical tools to translate and for him to become a good center fielder now that he’s going to be playing there full time?

Keith: I don’t think so. Having seen Cespedes all the way back to his first Spring Training in Oakland, where they did run him around in center, no I don’t think so. I think he can really be excellent in a corner, but it’s too much of an ask to ask him to play average or better defense in center field. Maybe it’s something they can live with, because they want his power, because the middle of the order is a little short on power— it’s a much better OBP lineup, especially because of Conforto, but definitely light on the power. It’s a trade-off. And it may be that that trade-off is fine for them, but I do think they’re gonna miss— 2014 Lagares back in center would be an awfully nice thing to have.

Tommy: So what do you think goes into that, the idea that someone with great physical tools, and definitely the speed to have good range, could be great in left, what makes him just so hopeless out in center? Is it route-running, how he reads fly balls, or…

Keith: I mean I don’t think he’s super fast, either. It’s not like he’s a 70 runner, and his first step is not that quick. Underway, he’s fast. And underway, I’d wanna get the hell out of his way. But speed in center, speed translating to defense in center is often about that first step quickness. I don’t think he has that. Maybe I haven’t seen him enough in center, other than in the playoffs, where he didn’t look good, if you really evaluate that. I don’t think that’s gonna be— or I don’t think that is— a strength of his.  Where in a corner it’s a little bit less of an issue, and you mentioned the Gold Glove, it’s probably because he can really throw, the guy’s a human highlight reel if you let him throw. And really, if you run on him, you’re stupid. Because it’s, not only is it strong, it’s reasonably accurate. It’s not an arm I would actively want to test.

Tommy: So you mentioned the lineup earlier, you’re right that there’s not a ton of 30-homer guys— you’ve got Cespedes, and maybe Duda. But one thing they have that they definitely haven’t had in a long time is that when you go up and down, everybody in that lineup should be able to hit 15 home runs, plus, including Cabrera. What’s Cabrera— what does he have, first in terms of power, and then— because he’s been so streaky, he was a star a few years ago, then he had a slump, but last year he had a great second half— what should Mets fans, first of all, expect, and also, be able to hope for?

Keith: I mean, the big problem with him is that he can’t play shortstop. He CANNOT play shortstop, and he hasn’t been able to play shortstop for several years now. So I don’t understand— I mean yes, this is the front office that decided Wilmer Flores could play shortstop, he really couldn’t play shortstop either— but then to go from Flores to Cabrera— is Cabrera really better than Flores, at anything? I mean Flores, I know the production wasn’t great, but the swing’s good, he puts the ball in play a lot, and I still think he’s going to come into some power, whereas Cabrera, outside of that one crazy first half power-wise he had with Cleveland a couple years ago, you kind of never got it. So I don’t understand— do they think they’re getting a better defensive shortstop than they really are? Do they think he’s going to turn into a 20 homer guy? Because I don’t believe that that’s the case.

I didn’t understand that signing at all. It’s part of why— somebody asked me about the Mets offseason— it’s great that they did spend some money, but what if they had taken the money they gave to Cespedes, and Cabrera, and Alejandro De Aza, and thrown it at one of the more premium free agents on the market. They could have done something better. Cabrera over Flores, I don’t even know if that’s an upgrade, and if it is, it’s a fairly small one.

Tommy: So prospect-wise in the middle infield, I know you’re extremely high on Amed Rosario and you have been for awhile, and then there’s Gavin Cecchini, who you put in your top 100. I know Cecchini’s probably closer in terms of an MLB timeline, but how would you analyze those guys offensively and defensively, and in terms of when you think they’re going to be able to contribute?

Keith: Cecchini’s glove is ready. His arm, he had a little bit of a throwing issue, last year. And he was better in Fall League, he was even better in August or so, I know they started to work on him with— particularly if a runner was going fast, he hesitated a fraction of a second, and suddenly looked up and realized the runner was getting down the line, then he’d rush a throw and often overthrow the first baseman. Just trying to work with him on that, it looked like he was better in Fall League. If that problem is resolved, his glove is ready. A half-season or more at Triple-A is not gonna hurt him because he’s really only been performing offensively the way we expected when he was rafted for about a year and two months, or so. So I’m fine with taking it slow with a guy like that.

Rosario, it’s still more tools than performance. This will be a big year for him. Obviously they jumped him a level last year, which was aggressive, and I think in the context of his aging and experience, he had a great year. But now, alright, now let’s go, let’s see the harder contact, let’s see the power, because we think it’s all there, but again he pays in a crappy offensive environment in St Lucie. Let’s see him go to double-A and start to produce a little more. He doesn’t have to be a superstar statistically, because given his youth, if he performs even a little bit, if some of that power starts to arrive, I think we’ll all feel a lot better about him getting to that star upside. But I think he’s a solid two years away from doing anything in the Majors, and he may be a guy who gets to the Big Leagues, and it’s defense first and the occasional home run, but it takes another year or two for the whole offensive [set] to come together. I’m just betting on the huge upside, because from tools, I don’t think there’s louder tools anywhere in the system.

Tommy: So now I have a few questions about the bullpen. What are your thoughts on that situation at large?

Keith: On the Major League bullpen? I didn’t like the Clippard acquisition, in part because I didn’t think he was that huge of an upgrade over a Hansel Robles, I think they paid for experience. Then they turned around and picked up Addison Reed for lesser prospects, and that made more sense, and Reed carried over so they get more than a couple months out of him. I think that they had enough power arms, still have enough power arm relievers, sticking around the system that they can certainly patch together a good enough, more than good enough bullpen for than this year, with Jeurys Familia being potentially a dominant, top five, top ten closer in the game for a couple years here. I certainly feel way better about their bullpen now than I would have going into last season. And I would really like to see them trust that, and not do what they did. Don’t go out and trade real prospects, like Meisner, for bullpen help, while that bullpen help is already in hand, somebody in the system, who maybe can convert. It’s not gonna be a guy like Robert Gsellman. They have power arms sticking around, who could potentially go into that role for them.

Tommy: So like you said, you’re not a big fan of big trades for relievers at the deadline. But because a lot of teams usually do make some veteran relievers available, do you think they still have some of the depth, possibly at the major league level, to—

Keith: Oh yeah. To go get one? Yeah. Absolutely. Well because you can swap a position player who doesn’t fit for you, to go get a reliever. Or— Nick Pivetta was the cost for Jonathan Papelbon. I do like Pivetta, but he is— I like Pivetta because I think he has a chance to be a fourth starter. But if you said to me, ‘Hey Keith, I want you to nitpick Pivetta to death right now,’ I could also do that for you. He’s not a perfect prospect. There are strengths and there are flaws. And the Mets have prospects like that, mostly on the position player side, but they have prospects like that who could return someone of value. Nimmo could be that guy, where they flip him in July, one-for-one deal for a reliever with an expiring contract, and because I don’t Nimmo’s ceiling is that high, I’m okay with that. You hope to get a good reliever, not a Tyler Clippard, but that concept is fine. My problem with the Clippard deal was they gave up a good prospect for a reliever who I just did not think was very good. And then he wasn’t good.

Tommy: So now, with a situation like Jenrry Mejia, you follow these guys, being in your position, you follow them from a very young age. And it kind of looked like he was gonna contribute, he had 30 saves a couple years ago, and then his career, and really his life, just fell apart so fast… what are your comments and thoughts on that situation?

Keith: It’s sad. And it’s sad that a guy like that would feel like he has to do that, to further his career. I don’t know what the path back is, for a guy like that, we really don’t have any precedent… If I were his agent, for one, you’re just trying to get the kid— do we have a problem here that needs to be addressed off the field? And the second thing is, you wanna work, you wanna pitch, let’s get you in one of those leagues overseas, whether it’s in Europe, or somewhere, or something. Let’s just have you go pitch somewhere, be healthy, be clean, for a year, two years, work his way back and then try to work with Major League Baseball to see if there’s a chance of reinstatement at some point. Because as much as the lifetime ban was intended to— I think it’s there to be a deterrent, rather than to actually kick someone out forever. My guess is they probably figured they’d never get to this point, now they are at this point. They have to at least create an appeals process for somebody like that to clean his act up and potentially get back into organized baseball here. And I hope he does. Because I, you know, his livelihood has been taken away from him. Through his own fault! But still, he’s not hurting anybody. You’d like to see him be able to, if he cleans up his act, to be able to get back into organized baseball.

Tommy: And finally, the Mets are obviously in a much different situation in terms of outlook than they were a year ago. And the way their division is set up, obviously the Braves and Phillies aren’t going to threaten them in any way, the Marlins, every year people think they might do something, but they usually don’t, and then there’s the Mets and the Nationals. So the Mets definitely aren’t a guarantee to repeat, but they definitely have one of the most enviable positions, in terms of winning their division, in Baseball. So what’s your outlook on the Mets this season, just what you’re expecting, what you think the upside and the floor is?

Keith: I think I’d probably pick them to win the division. I think they can at least match Washington for talent on the field. Washington might be more famous, obviously Washington has maybe the best player in the league playing right field. But I think the Mets have a little more depth, they probably have more players who are underrated on name value, and I trust their front office more. And I trust their manager substantially more. I do not wish to underestimate Dusty Baker‘s ability to make the wrong decision, to think Trea Turner isn’t ready and send him to the minors and let Danny Espinosa screw up at shortstop for two months before they make a change. We’ll know more on April 3rd or whenever Spring Training breaks, but for right now, I’d give the edge to the Mets in a couple for departments.

Tommy: Alright! That’s all the questions I have for you. Thanks again so much for doing this.

* * * * * * * * * * *

Again, a big thanks to Keith for his time and insight. Check out his recently released Prospect Rankings if you have ESPN insider.

As always, leave your reactions in the comments (Unless you’re Dusty Baker).

The post Special Feature: Keith Law Talks Mets Baseball With MMO appeared first on Metsmerized Online.