Spring training games are now officially underway and the New York Mets will begin their Grapefruit League schedule on Saturday afternoon.

In total, the Mets will play 31 spring training games – 32 if you include the Spring Breakout. And, as always, there is a ton of intrigue and excitement prior to the first Grapefruit League contest.

Furthermore, there is something really quite beautiful about the start of spring training games. You can feel the weather start to change, we have actual baseball games to digest and it all means Opening Day is just getting closer.

To that end, here are some compelling storylines to watch out for over the next few days…

SIX THINGS TO WATCH 

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

STAR ATTRACTION

Spring training games mean very little in the grand scheme of things, other than acting as a means for players to ramp up to the games that do matter. They also provide a platform for prospects to impress and fight for roster spots. Outside of those two things, however, the results in these Grapefruit League games won’t matter.

What will matter, though, and especially on Saturday, will be fans getting the first opportunity to see Juan Soto in a Mets uniform in an actual game environment. Soto will make his unofficial debut for the team in Saturday’s Grapefruit League opener against the Astros. It will be a moment Mets fans have been waiting for all offseason long, and maybe even longer than that.

Granted, Soto will only play a few innings before making a swift exit from the game, but the occasion will still be special for all involved. After watching Soto hit at a Hall of Fame level for other teams, including the Yankees, it will be nice to see the generational hitter do it in Mets colors. A home run in his spring debut would be even nicer.

Plus, with manager Carlos Mendoza leaning towards hitting Soto second in the lineup, behind Francisco Lindor, it will be fascinating to see how the lineup with Soto in it takes shape over the course of spring training.

TRANSITION TIME

Outside of Soto, one of the Mets’ biggest offseason additions was Clay Holmes, who signed a three-year, $38 million contract in December. What was bigger perhaps, however, was the news that the Mets intend on using Holmes as a starter in Queens. The righty saved 74 games over a three-year span for the Yankees, including 30 in 2024 before losing the closer job in September after also blowing 13 saves.

Those days are seemingly behind Holmes now, and his transition to a full-time starter will begin on Saturday. The two-time All-Star is expected to get the start against the Astros on Saturday, and the hope is he will go around three innings. Of all the things to keep an eye on during the early weeks of spring training will be how Holmes adjusts to his new role, and how that will impact the rotation as we edge closer to Opening Day.

COMPETITION TIME

Without doubt the biggest question mark hovering over this team is the starting rotation. President of baseball operations David Stearns is again banking on the collective effort rather than relying on one or two elite arms to carry the pitching. It was a strategy that paid off in a huge way in 2024. We will see if similar magic can happen in 2025.

You can’t be blamed if you have doubts, though. Outside of Sean Manaea, there are a lot of question marks. And we will get some answers to the test throughout the first batch of spring training games. Can Holmes become a reliable starter? What will Kodai Senga look like after an injury-ravaged 2024 season? Will David Peterson continue to pitch at a high level? Can Paul Blackburn be a consistent arm over the course of a full season? And who will win the battle for that sixth spot in the rotation with Frankie Montas currently injured? Can Tylor Megill add some much-needed consistency to his game? Or will Griffin Canning enjoy a strong start to spring and move ahead of Megill in the depth chart? Or could there be a late addition to the rotation?

All of those pitching storylines will be intriguing to watch play out over the first load of Grapefruit League games. And the rotation will continue to be the biggest conversation starter in the buildup to Opening Day.

Brandon Sproat, Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

PROSPECT WATCH

One of the most enjoyable and fun aspects of spring training is getting to watch the future stars of tomorrow battle and make the most of their chance in big league camp. The Mets have a handful of prospects who could earn a call-up to The Show at some point in 2025. Arguably the most intriguing prospect to keep an eye on in the early part of spring training will be Brandon Sproat. The right-handed pitcher has filthy stuff and looks certain to pitch in the majors at some point in 2025. A fast start in spring training could mean a call-up in May or June. Sproat is arguably the prospect most fans are invested in given how important pitching is, and his early spring starts will be must-watch.

Other names to keep an eye on will be Luisangel Acuña (more on him later), Ryan Clifford, Jett Williams, and Drew Gilbert. Williams and Gilbert were hurt for most of 2024, so will need a big spring training in order to prove their health. And, as for Clifford, the outfielder has a lot of power and a dominant spring could pave the way for a call-up later on in the season. All in all, the first few games will allow us all an opportunity to see how talented and ready some of the organization’s top prospects really are.

SECOND BASE FLEXIBILITY 

Both David Stearns and owner Steve Cohen have spoken about the importance of roster flexibility this offseason. Stearns expanded on that point when closing the door on a return for Jose Iglesias. Instead, there could be an open competition at second base this year. Jeff McNeil, who is looking to prove that he’s still got something left in the tank, could be the Opening Day second baseman. However, there will seemingly be opportunities for the likes of Brett Baty and Acuña to challenge McNeil for the job in spring. Throw Nick Madrigal and, when he’s healthy, Ronny Mauricio into the mix too. Overall, the intense battle for reps at second – and an infield utility role – could shape up to be one of the most fascinating developments to fixate on as games begin.

NEW FACES

Outside of the notable additions of Soto and Holmes, the Mets were busy this offseason. Madrigal and Canning were on-the-margin signings, Jose Siri was signed to improve the outfield defense, and Frankie Montas and A.J. Minter were notable pitching acquisitions. When you throw in the returns of Sean Manaea, Pete Alonso, Jesse Winker, and Ryne Stanek, Mets fans will have plenty of new and familiar faces to pay close attention to in the first few games of Grapefruit League action. After all, watching old heroes and fresh names for the first time after a long winter is always one of the biggest thrills of spring training.

The post Six Key Things To Watch In Early Spring Games appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

David Stearns and his group aimed to kill two birds with one stone with their signing Friday night, swiping RHP Clay Holmes from the New York Yankees and inking the hurler to a three-year, $38 million contract.

One of baseball’s best firemen is a fascinating addition to the Mets’ staff. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Holmes will be signed as a starting pitcher, despite being primarily utilized out of the bullpen in his career. Passan also reported that Holmes will receive an opt-out after the second year.

Holmes finished 2024 on a sour note, losing his late-inning job to Luke Weaver, amidst 13 blown regular season saves. That’s not to discredit his dominant four-year stretch where he established himself as one of the game’s best set-up men.

Holmes represents a different project for the Mets’ pitching development group after they signed Frankie Montas earlier in the week. Holmes is in familiar company in the Mets organization, due to Eric Jagers and Co. recently poaching highly-regarded pitching coach Desi Druschel from the Yankees. Druschel overlapped with Holmes for years in New York.

Unlike Montas, Holmes enjoyed recent excellence, employing a nasty sinker/sweeper combo en route to a 3.71 ERA/3.44 FIP in 2024.

However, like Montas, Holmes’ success depended on another team optimizing his arsenal. In 2019, the Pirates sent the struggling reliever packing to the Yankees in exchange for two minor leaguers. Pittsburgh attributed his command issues to the wild movement his pitches produced.

A decade ago, Holmes would have floundered in the 40-man bubble, with his command serving as the main detriment to a stable roster spot.

A decade ago, the idea of seam-shifted wake only existed in theory. However, around the time, Holmes was sent to New York, the idea of seam-shifted wake (SSW) had made its way into the public domain, thanks to ground-breaking work from Utah Professor Barton Smith.

Smith concluded that certain pitches move more unexpectedly through their path to the plate, a byproduct of the ball’s seams interacting in a certain way with air molecules.

The Yankees incorporated Smith’s research into their reasoning for Holmes’ acquisition. Baseball Savant proves this theory; Holmes’ pitches move vertically more than any other comparable offerings. 

Coupled with Dreschel’s specialty in pitch tunneling, Holmes broke out in a big way upon landing in the Bronx. Dreschel took advantage of Holmes’s perceived weakness – his movement – and turned it into his greatest strength.

In shorter stints, his new repertoire shone.

As a reliever, his sinker emerged as his bread-and-butter, inducing hellacious swings year over year. Coupled with his high release point, his seam-shifted wake and -7.2 VAA gave batters fits. The Seam Shifted Wake phoneme can be observed via the 75-degree difference between the pitch’s spin-based movement and the observed movement indicating a degree of a seam-shifted wake.

Max Bay, currently a quantitative analyst for the World Champions Los Angeles Dodgers, recently released a publicly accessible app that calculates a pitch’s effectiveness by visualizing its expected shape, with respect to a pitcher’s arm angle. Given his 49-degree arm angle, Holmes’ sinker moves six inches more than expected. This unexpected movement leads to more whiffs and poorly-topped ground balls.

Holmes paired his outstanding sinker with a pair of excellent breaking balls. In 2024, his slider performed as one of the best in the business, finishing with a +6 Run Value. Meanwhile, his sweeper induced a 40% putaway rate. This duo helped his Breaking Ball Run Value finish in the 86th percentile in Run Value in 2024

Savant Pitch Mix Analysis visualized Holmes’s plan of action in 2024. He threw his sinker most often when even and behind in the count, and utilized his sweeper and slider mix to finish his opponents off.

Holmes quickly emerged as one of skipper Aaron Boone‘s most trusted arms upon joining the club, stabilizing the late innings in the Bronx. Holmes ditched his slider and change-up, focusing on the pitches that produced the most hectic movement profiles. His whiff rate rose 20% from his time with Pittsburgh while his strong ground ball remained among the league leaders. In his four seasons in the pinstripes, the 31-year-old right-hander pitched to a 2.69 ERA/2.74 FIP, racking up 74 saves and 19 holds.

Clay Holmes, Vicious 98mph Sinker. 😤 pic.twitter.com/WdE0pl3nBt

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 16, 2024

Technically speaking, Holmes routinely finished among the best in the league in xwOBA, wOBA, xSLG, Barrel %, and xERA over the last four seasons. If it wasn’t for Edwin Díaz locking down the 9th inning across the river, Holmes would have gotten more notice as a household name in New York City.

And yet, despite predictions at the offseason’s outset that he would pitch in tandem with a closer in the same ilk as Díaz in 2025, Holmes will instead slot into the Mets’ rotation to kick off the campaign. While his offerings worked very well out of the bullpen, he should look for an additional weapon to counter the third-time-through-the-order penalty. Although his wOBA in 2024 was similar against both sides of the plate, he should permanently incorporate a change-up into his arsenal, a pitch he’s only tinkered with in games.

A change-up could be a perfect addition to Holmes’ arsenal, given Holmes’ native tendency as a supinator and his work with Tread Athletics. Multiple Mets pitchers, including Jose Quintana, have trained with Tread to improve their pitch design.

In an October 2024 article, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com noted that Holmes recently reincorporated his four-seam fastball late in the season. This fastball, and proposed change-up, could be the key to Holmes’ success as a starter in 2024.

Overall, this is a big swing by the Mets’ front office. Seth Lugo and Jordan Hicks serve as recent examples of relievers that have made the pen-to-rotation shift. Lugo just finished among the AL Cy Young finishers while the jury’s still out on Hicks. Holmes is in the mold of Hicks; a pitcher with a limited arsenal with historical command concerns. Given the Mets’ recent pitching development wins, David Stearns deserves the benefit of the doubt with his plan to mold Clay into a starter.

The post A Deep Dive into Clay Holmes appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

On Friday, the Mets signed former Yankee Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million contract according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. The deal also includes an opt-out after year two. The Mets intend to convert Holmes to a starting pitcher despite Holmes not having started games since 2018. Holmes joins Frankie Montas as the two newest members of the Mets’ starting rotation for 2025.

Roberto Carlo

Latest Mets News

The Mets officially announced that they signed Alex Ramírez, Grant Hartwig, and Edward Olivares to minor league deals with invites to spring training. Ramírez and Hartwig were known to be returning to the organization for a few days, but Olivares’ signing was not. The 28-year-old outfielder has spent time with the Padres and Royals and spent 2024 with the Pirates. In 196 major league plate appearances in 2024, he had a .624 OPS.

The Mets acquired reliever Sean Harney from the Rays in exchange for international pool money. The 2022 eighth-round pick had a 3.76 ERA between rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A in 2024.

According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets have received trade interest in Brett Baty. The third baseman has struggled in his brief major league career but is still highly thought of as a former top prospect.

New Met Frankie Montas had his introductory press conference on Friday. He spoke highly about the Mets’ lineup and how he’s glad he doesn’t have to face them anymore. He also mentioned how he hopes his former teammate and one of his best friends Sean Manaea returns to the Mets next season.

Latest MLB News

Buster Olney of ESPN reported that Shane Bieber is returning to the Guardians in 2025. Jeff Passan noted the deal is one-year, $14 million with a $16 million player option for 2026. Bieber will miss the start of the regular season after undergoing Tommy John surgery this past year.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported that the Rays signed catcher Danny Jansen to a one-year, $8.5 million contract. According to Murray, Jansen had multi-year offers on the table but wanted to bet on himself after a down offensive year. The 29-year-old had a .658 OPS between the Blue Jays and Red Sox last year, but has a career .727 OPS.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said on Foul Territory that he expects both Nolan Arenado and Steven Matz to be traded from the Cardinals, but they are likelier to hold on to Ryan Helsley.

The A’s officially announced that they signed former Met Luis Severino.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced that the controversial “Golden Bat” rule is not likely to happen. The rule would allow teams to use any player they want for one at-bat a game.

MLB Pipeline released their Top 100 for the 2025 MLB Draft. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline called high school infielders “the strength of this class.”

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that with or without Juan Soto, the Yankees should pursue a trade of Cody Bellinger.

In the lawsuit involving the family of Tyler Skaggs and the Angels, the judge in the case rejected the Angels’ request to delay the trial. Mike Trout will be deposed by attorneys in January and owner Arte Moreno will be required to release some of the contents of his cell phone.

Latest on MMO

Jordan Baron profiles outfielder Teoscar Hernández as a potential free agent target for the Mets.

On This Date in Mets History

1984: The Mets acquired Howard Johnson from the Tigers in exchange for Walt Terrell. Johnson went on to become a two-time All-Star and World Series champion with the Mets. He spent parts of nine seasons with the club and had an .801 OPS in a Mets uniform.

Born On This Date: Pete Alonso (1994), Mike Baxter (1984), Don Cardwell (1935).

The post Morning Briefing: Mets’ Rotation Beginning to Take Shape appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 31 (02/14/1993)

2024 Traditional Stats: 27 G (26 GS), 145 2/3 IP, 6-12, 4.14 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 172 SO, 36 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 103 ERA+, 28.9% SO%, 6.1% BB%, 3.59 xERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR, 1.8 bWAR

Rundown

After leaving Philadelphia after parts of four seasons of dire struggle (5.50 career ERA with the Phillies), Nick Pivetta revitalized his career over the last four-plus seasons with the Boston Red Sox. Now, the 31-year-old gets the opportunity to test the open market, poised for a raise.

Since leaving the Phillies, Pivetta has established himself as a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter. Since 2021, the right-handed pitcher has thrown at least 142 innings while seeing his strikeout rate plateau above both his career and the league’s average as well as his walk rate steadily decrease in each season.

What has made Pivetta so successful over his last four-plus seasons is how filthy his different pitches are. The statistic, “Stuff+,” evaluates each pitch type based on the velocity, spin rate, and movement characteristics (a 100 Stuff+ is the average number).

In 2024, Pivetta owned a Stuff+ of 133 which was the highest in the majors of 126 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. In 2023, he ranked 10th among 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Over the last three seasons as a whole, he ranks 13th in Stuff+ among 140 starters that have thrown at least 250 innings. Basically, ever since he left Philadelphia, Pivetta has had one of the best arsenals of pitches, based off velocity, spin rate, and movement characteristics, in the major leagues.

Speaking of that arsenal, Pivetta threw five different pitch types in 2024; four-seam fastball, sweeper, curveball, cutter, and slider. Of those pitches, his sweeper/curveball is by far the best. His sweeper owned a .196 xBA in 2024. But, overall, as evident by the Stuff+ ratings, all of Pivetta pitches fair very well outside his cutter, which he only threw less than 7% of the time in each of the last two seasons.

Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last two seasons, the above analyzed strong shaping metrics have resulted in terrific strikeout and chase rates. Pivetta’s strikeout rate the last two years ranked above the league’s 88th percentile while his chase rate over the league’s 65th percentile in each season. As mentioned, in doing so, he has also cut down on the walks considerably. In every season since 2020, Pivetta has decreased his walk rate, culminating in a career-low 6.1% walk rate in 2024 (80th percentile). The strong strikeout performances and the low walk rate have also resulted in expected ERA numbers around the 60th percentile over the last two seasons and expected batting average figures above the league’s 75th percentile.

So, with all that being said, why haven’t the actual results (4.29 ERA with Boston) been a bit better? Over the last few years, when opposing batters actually make contact against Pivetta’s filthy stuff, they are barreling up well and hitting the ball hard. Over this recent four-plus year stretch of success, Pivetta’s home run rate has been inflated, and always finishes higher than the league average each year. Hitters don’t hit Pivetta much at all, given all the chases, whiffs, and strikeouts, however, when they are able to, the damage is not usually singles, it’s home runs and extra-base hits.

Also worth nothing, ever since he broke into the league, with the Phillies and Red Sox, a majority of his games have come in extremely unfriendly parks to pitchers. Fenway Park in Boston has a park factor of 107, which ranks second to only Colorado’s Coors Field. Meanwhile, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia ranks 12th in park value and is the fifth most homer-happy ballpark in the majors. If he came to New York, he would mainly be pitching in a park that is extremely pitcher-friendly, ranking 24th in park factor. After all, Pivetta’s OPS+ against is 10 points lower in his career on the road than at home.

Overall, Pivetta has quietly emerged as one of the better back-of-the-rotation options in the majors since leaving the Phillies. He would immediately provide an upgrade to most team’s No. 4 starter slot. Especially one that plays at a ballpark that favors pitchers more than hitters.

Contract

Pivetta is coming off a one-year deal worth $7.5 million. Sportstrac is projecting a four-year deal worth a shade over $60 million which is good for an annual average value of roughly $15 million. Interestingly, one of the notable comparisons Sportstrac references for Pivetta’s next deal is the two-year deal Sean Manaea signed with the Mets last offseason worth $14 million per season.

At the projected $15 million mark, Pivetta would be in essence receiving No. 3 to No. 4 starter money.

Note, Pivetta declined the Red Sox $21.05 million qualifying offer, indicating he feels he can fetch a multi-year deal on the market for around the $18-plus million range.

Recommendation

Entering the offseason, president of baseball operations David Stearns and staff will in essence need to rebuild the close to the whole Mets’ rotation. No. 1 and No.2 starters from 2024 in Sean Manaea and Luis Severino are going to be free agents. While Jose Quintana, who threw 170 1/3 innings in 2024, is also a free agent. That leaves a hopefully fully healthy Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, and Joey Lucchesi as potential rotation options. The Mets need to add several starters this offseason.

As it relates to Pivetta, there is no doubt he has the stuff. Adding him to a team that plays 81 of their games at one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the majors would help even further. At the end of the day, it of course comes down to the contract.

If the Mets and staff can replicate a Manaea-type deal, which brings Pivetta to Queens short term while paying him in the range of $13 to $15 million annually, New York would certainly be better by it. Bringing in a talent like Pivetta would be the first step, of many needed, to start filling out the 2025 rotation.

The post Free Agent Profile: Nick Pivetta, SP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Few people predicted that the Mets would still be standing this deep in October, especially in the wake of the dark days of May. However, here we are and this team is just four wins away from reaching the World Series.

But, before we get too carried away, the Mets have an extremely tall task in front of them in the Dodgers. L.A. is a legit World Series contender, one laden with star power. Taking down one of the best teams in baseball won’t be easy.

And, on that note, let’s dive into five compelling storylines to follow ahead of Game 1 of the NLCS later on Sunday.

Photo by Brad Penner of Imagn Images

Can The Magic Continue?

The Mets sure look like this year’s team of destiny. They’ve been riding a magical carpet ride for months now and have defied the odds at every single turn. No matter how much adversity is thrown at them, this team figures out a way to overcome and advance. They beat the Brewers. They stunned the Phillies. What’s next?

Well, the Dodgers are in a different class. They too have overcome their fair share of adversity this season. Plus, boasting a plethora of star and firepower, this L.A. team will represent the Mets’ toughest test of the entire year. Will the baseball gods continue smiling down upon New York in the NLCS?

Will Winning The Starting Pitching Battle Be Enough?

It is hard to disagree with the fact that the Dodgers are more talented than the Mets. However, you can’t dispute the fact that New York has the better starting pithing heading into Game 1. L.A.’s rotation has been ravaged by injuries all year long. As a result, the Dodgers only have really two reliable starting pitchers in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty. Of note, Yamamoto won’t be able to pitch until Game 3 or Game 4.

On the flipside, the Mets have an entire rotation of guys they can count on. Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana have been stellar so far this postseason. Kodai Senga didn’t miss a beat after returning from injury. Meanwhile, David Peterson has emerged as a lethal weapon coming out of the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever.

Granted, the Dodgers boast one of the best offenses in the game. But, if the Mets can get more brilliance from their starters throughout this series, then that could prove to be the difference in the NLCS.

Will The Mets Bullpen Hold Up?

Despite being gassed, the bullpen stepped up in the National League Division Series against the Phillies. However, in a best-of-seven series, can this group of relievers go the distance? It is a good question.

Edwin Díaz, Phil Maton and José Buttó have all endured their fair share of struggles so far this postseason. There have been other near-heart attacks waiting to happen, too. For instance, we know Ryne Stanek is susceptible to the long ball. And, given how explosive this L.A. offense is, the Mets can’t afford to have any significant meltdowns from their bullpen. Furthermore, Díaz will need to be his dominant self in every outing he makes if his team are going to have a chance of advancing to the World Series.

When you also consider how dominant L.A.’s bullpen was against the Padres, 19 scoreless innings in three games, New York may need to get more bullpen work out of the likes of David Peterson and Tylor Megill.

Overall, this bullpen has cheated death on a slew of occasions. However, that run of luck may run out in this series and a year of overuse could finally catch up with this taxed pen.

Mark Vientos. Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

All Hands On Deck

As was the case with the Phillies, you can argue that the Dodgers have more offensive firepower on paper than the Mets. However, this Mets team has arguably more depth up and down the lineup. Mark Vientos went 9-for-16 in the National League Division Series with two homers and two doubles. Jose Iglesias has been clutch all year. Jesse Winker has come up with big hit after big hit since being acquired at the trade deadline. Francisco Alvarez is almost unstoppable when he gets hot. Luisangel Acuña can provide a real speed threat off the bench. Starling Marte has had his moments this postseason. Plus, Jeff McNeil is on the National League Championship Series roster and he has slashed .289/.376/.547 (.923 OPS) since the All-Star break. Plus, let’s not forget Pete Alonso, who has exploded offensively in the playoffs.

If the Mets want to advance, they will need contributions from up and down the lineup all series long. Especially if they want to figure out that formidable LA bullpen.

Battle of the MVPs

Arguably the juiciest storyline of the entire National League Championship Sieres will be the battle between Francisco Lindor and Shohei Ohtani. After a historic 50-50 season, Ohtani will no doubt win the National League MVP. But can Lindor have the last laugh by winning the biggest prize of them all in the World Series?

Lindor has been the Mets’ MVP all year and he will need to be at the very peak of his powers in order to help lead his team to the World Series. If Lindor can carve out another monster series and outplay the other huge star of this series, then he will cement his place in Mets lore forever.

As for Ohtani, the superstar endured a quiet National League Division Series after going 2-for-15 with eight strikeouts between Games 2 and 5. However, he did hit a monster three-run home run in his postseason debut and it is only a matter of time until he truly breaks out.

Slowing Ohtani down while hoping Lindor balls out will arguably be the two biggest keys to winning the National League Championship and advancing to the World Series for the Mets.

The post Five Key Storylines To Watch In The NLCS appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

In Seattle for the final stop of a 10-game swing, the Mets were swept by the Mariners in an uncompetitive three-game series. New York was outscored 22-1 by the Mariners, culminating in a 12-1 whooping on Sunday Night Baseball.

As a result, the Mets finished the road trip a disappointing 4-6.

With Monday an off day before the team returns to Queens on Tuesday, now is the perfect time to unravel what went wrong in Seattle. It is time for another edition of 3 Up, 3 Down…

Photo Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

3 UP

STAYING ALIVE

This was a crushing road trip for the Mets. However, if you want a positive, they didn’t lose much ground in the Wild Card race. Despite being swept by the Mariners, New York remains just a half-game back of the Braves for the final Wild Card spot. Granted, both the Padres and the Diamondbacks are now four games ahead. However, the mission is just to get in. The fact that the Mets stayed close to Atlanta, despite stumbling on the road, should be seen as a huge positive. The Mets have 10 games left against the three teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race.

STAYING HOT

Okay, let’s be real. There are not many positives to rescue from the wreckage of the Seattle series. There just aren’t. However, Jeff McNeil continuing to swing the bat well is one. The veteran’s solo blast on Sunday snapped a 24-inning scoreless streak. That’s the longest scoreless streak by a Mets offense in 14 years.

Furthermore, McNeil’s homer continued what has been a strong stretch since the All-Star break. The lefty bat is now hitting .324/.358/.662/.1.020 in the second half with 16 runs scored, seven doubles, six homers and 14 RBIs. McNeil was the only bright spot for what was otherwise a totally non-competitive offense in Seattle.

GETTING BODIES BACK

I’m really scratching and clawing around for good things to say about the series against the Mariners. The brutal truth is they are too few and far between. However, there is at least some progress on the injury front right now. RHP Reed Garrett returned from the IL on Saturday and struck out the side in one sharp inning of work. Outfielder Starling Marte could return this weekend after ramping up his rehab assignments. Righty Dedniel Núñez will throw another bullpen session on Tuesday after throwing off the mound on Sunday. And RHP Christian Scott is expected to begin a throwing program this week in order to strengthen his arm.

So, overall, plenty of positives on the health front. Players are either back, close to being back and, in the case of Núñez and Scott, making hopeful strides in the right direction. That’s something to cling on to today, at least.

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

3 DOWN

NO-SHOW

Remember the old no-show jobs in The Sopranos where mobsters were paid to not turn up to building sites and not to work? Well, the Mets offense was paid not to show up at all in Seattle. New York scored a grand total of just one run in three games against the Mariners. The team was riding an unwanted 24-inning scoreless streak before Jeff McNeil snapped it with a solo homer in the sixth inning. Yes, the Seattle pitching staff is elite. You could argue that it is the best in baseball. T-Mobile Park is also a dead zone for offense. However, to score just one run and record 17 hits is just beyond embarrassing. The offense was just non-competitive in all three games and there is no logical, reasonable excuse for that.

To paint an even worse picture, runners in scoring position continued to be a huge problem. The Mets went 0-for-8 with RISP on Sunday, 0-for-16 in the series, and they were shut out in consecutive games. Furthermore, since the All-Star break, New York ranks 18th in team OPS (.717), 17th in team batting average (.245), 16th in team OBP (.317), 22nd in home runs (26), 26th in average with RISP (.212), and 30th in average with two outs with RISP (.108). That neatly sums up the offensive woes the Mets have faced since the All-Star break. If they are to get the train back on track, there will need to be considerable improvement in all areas.

PITCHING HELL

While the Mets had no chance in Seattle because of the no-show from the offense, the pitching didn’t help either. Both the starting rotation and the bullpen endured tough moments against the Mariners. Luis Severino suffered a second straight bad start, allowing two home runs and four earned runs in five innings on Sunday. He now owns an ugly 9.69 ERA in his last three starts. Sean Manaea was arguably worse, giving up five walks and three earned runs on four hits in just three innings on Saturday. The same can be said for José Quintana, who allowed five earned runs and a homer on four hits in his start on Friday. That’s a combined total of 12 earned runs from three starters in three games. Not great.

As for the bullpen, they had their moments with a couple of bright spots here and there. However, Adam Ottavino allowed a two-run single that blew the game open in Friday’s series opener. It got uglier on Sunday. A lot uglier. Ottavino and Ryne Stanek combined to give up six runs in a nightmare sixth inning. Then, just to add more misery, Danny Young allowed two runs in the seventh to cap off a miserable night and a horrible series. It was a horrific weekend for the offense, but it was also a terrible series for the pitching too.

UNWANTED OBSTACLE 

Mark Vientos was a late scratch from the lineup on Sunday. The slugging third baseman is battling a sore left ankle. While the Mets aren’t too concerned, Vientos has clearly been playing hurt as of late. He went a combined 1-for-7 in the first two games against Seattle. With other members of the lineup hitting slumps, the Mets can’t afford to lose Vientos. Heck, they can’t even afford to have him at limited capacity. Hitting .270/.324/.536/.859 with 17 home runs and 44 RBIs, Vientos being unhindered and at the full peak of his powers will be crucial for New York.

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According to Andy Martino of SNY, the New York Mets have checked in on San Francisco Giants starter Blake Snell.

Martino added to this points there’s been no traction. He also confirmed the Giants are wanting top prospects and paying Snell’s whole contract, as of now, doesn’t change that ask.

To read more about Snell, click here.

Updated Post – July 29 @ 4:45 pm ET

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Yankees are in extensive talks to acquire SP Jack Flaherty from the Tigers.

If the Yankees acquire Flaherty or any other starter, the expectation is they will trade SP Nestor Cortes.

Updated Post – July 29 @ 2:10 PM

According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Cardinals, White Sox and Dodgers are in agreement on a three-team trade. Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic was first with reports that the deal was close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with the return to the White Sox. Robert Murray of FanSided had the news of Pham first.

Cardinals Receive: RHP Erick Fedde, OF Tommy Pham
Dodgers Receive: INF Tommy Edman, RHP Michael Kopech
White Sox Receive: Miguel Vargas, SS Jeral Perez (#18 Dodgers prospect), INF Alexander Albertus (#16 Dodgers prospect)

(Prospect rankings according to Baseball America)

In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty is expected to be moved soon as he was scratched from his start tonight to protect him for a possible trade. Andy Martino of SNY notes that it won’t be to the Mets.

Correction: An earlier version of this post noted SS Noah Miller was part of the prospect return from the Dodgers to the White Sox. Jeff Passan confirmed he is indeed not.

Original Post – July 29 @ 1:14 PM

Happy Trade Deadline Eve! A slew of pitchers’ names have been floating around the rumor mill and could be on the move by 6 p.m. ET Tuesday. That doesn’t include Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP), who the Kansas City Royals acquired from the Texas Rangers Monday.

After the injuries to Kodai Senga and Christian Scott and the rotation inconsistencies, the Mets (55-50) could use a starter. Here is the latest on some hurlers who could be on the move.

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

White Sox Want to Deal

Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet (6-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) leads the American League in strikeouts with 160 (114 1/3 innings) but may have turned some potential suitors off last week when he said he wanted a contract extension if he was traded. He also said he didn’t want to pitch out of the bullpen.

The 25-year-old is in his first year as a starter and said he made those demands for health reasons. He had never pitched more than 54 1/3 innings in a season before this one and missed 2022 after Tommy John surgery.

The Atlanta Braves have expressed interest in Crochet, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Another White Sox pitcher available is right-hander Erick Fedde (7-4, 3.11 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). Heyman reports that the St. Louis Cardinals are showing interest. Fedde is having a renaissance year after spending the 2023 campaign as part of the KBO league.

The Mets have expressed interest in Fedde, going back to this past winter when they were a finalist in signing him, but he ultimately chose the White Sox.

Cy Young Winner Available

Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network, there is a “better than 50 percent chance” that reigning National League Cy Youngwinner Blake Snell is moved. He said the San Francisco Giants (53-55) are trending toward selling and that the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees would potentially be interested.

Snell (0-3, 5.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) has been disappointing overall, but in his last four starts, he’s given up only two runs in 24 innings. He struck out 15 Colorado Rockies in six scoreless innings on Saturday. It was a career-high in punch outs for Snell.

Lefties On the Block

Morosi also reported that the Orioles are in contact with the Detroit Tigers on a potential deal for left-hander Tarik Skubal (12-3, 2.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP).

Toronto Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-9, 4.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) has drawn interest from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres and Houston Astros, according to Morosi.

Other Rumors

Other pitchers who have popped up in various trade reports are Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi of Texas, Jameson Taillon of the Cubs, Tyler Anderson of the Angels and Cal Quantrill of the Rockies.

Where the Mets Stand

It’s a seller’s market out there. Asking prices are astronomical, and Andy Martino of SNY noted it may have changed their plans in approaching their deadline targets. Either way, the Mets will add; it will just be a matter of what tier from and who they are willing to part with.

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Megill was efficient and dominant the first time through the order. He made quick work of the Braves, striking out three of the four hitters en route to three perfect innings. But things quickly changed the second time through the order. After getting the first two outs in the fourth, Marcell Ozuna hit a home run to left-center field. Four pitches later, Matt Olson also hit a home run to left-center field. Megill looked great early on, but within a matter of minutes, the Mets trailed 2-0.

The Braves added a third in the top of the fifth, thanks to an RBI single from Orlando Arcia. Megill was able to pitch into the seventh inning thanks to his low pitch count. Eddie Rosario, who nearly hit a home run down the right field line earlier in the game, was not going to miss one again. He went down to get a 85 mph slider at the bottom of the zone, hitting it over the right field wall. Megill’s day finished on a sour note. Six innings, four runs allowed on five hits, three of which were home runs.

“I wouldn’t say it was terrible. Obviously three solo shots. One to Ozuna, bad pitch. And then just tip your cap to Rosario and Olson. Besides that, I filled up the zone. Attacking hitters, had a couple walks but was able to stop the damage to get into the seventh,” Megill said after his performance.

There was some good and bad to his start on Saturday. Megill has a 5.46 ERA in the first inning for his career, yet he able to complete that inning with ease. He was also throw six-plus innings, something he had not done since late May. On the other hand, his home run issues appear to still exist. Megill has now allowed five home runs over his last three big league starts. It is always going to be difficult to win if he can’t solve that.

The bottom-line, as a starter, Megill has not been good enough throughout his career. His career big-league ERA is encroaching on 5.00 at 4.79. Meanwhile, his FIP is 4.58. This season, in 2024, he owns a 5.20 ERA and 4.38 xERA. A replacement in the rotation, if New York wants to contend this season, would be very wise.

Adrian Houser was used as a long man in the bullpen, but he was designated for assignment earlier this week. Megill has strong stuff (107 Stuff+), but as the game goes on, hitters seem to have more success against him. An argument can be made that he could be more impactful in a bullpen role where he would only be facing hitters once. Megill had nine relief appearances in 2022. But for now, he is expected to make his next start, on the road against the Los Angeles Angels.

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In all, Megill has thrown 14 innings since beginning his rehab assignment across three different levels in the system. He has only allowed one run, via a solo home run, as well as nine hits to go along with 23 strikeouts. The most encouraging sign is the fact he has only walked one batter. Overall, elevated strikeout rate and low walk rate, a good recipe for success.

Megill is clearly nearing a return to an all of a sudden jammed pack group of starting pitching options. Top prospect Christian Scott has emerged through two starts, while David Peterson and Kodai Senga are also working on getting back into the lineup. That is four pitchers and only one spot in the rotation.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Mets approach the logjam. Megill’s major-league sample size has largely been rocky, posting xERAs of 3.84, 4.31, 5.85, and 4.39 over the last four seasons, respectively. It is likely he gets another shot, but with all the competition, could fall out of favor pretty quickly.

Another potential option, which would help Megill, is if the Mets chose to go with a six-man rotation when he returns. Which, given the rookie pitcher, and a few other starters who are returning from injury, would make a lot of sense.

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One of the main contributors to these struggles is veteran Jose Quintana. The Mets’ Opening Day starter owns a 5.20 ERA after seven starts. He has tossed 36 1/3 innings allowing 40 hits, walking 16, and only striking out 25. His most recent start was a disaster where he allowed eight runs and 10 hits while lasting only 2 2/3 innings in a game the Mets eventually lost 10-8.

Quintana did have an eight inning start just one game prior to Friday’s disaster where he allowed only one run, however, a deeper dive into that start does paint a picture of some luck. He only generated nine swing-and-misses across 24 outs and allowed nine hard-hit balls. At the end of the day the actual results are all that matters, however, signs of impending regression peaked through during that solid start as well.

Overall, thus far this season, Quintana’s analytical profile stacks up as one of the worst in the major leagues. Of 129 qualified starting pitchers this season, Quintana owns the fourth-highest xBA (.317), 16th-highest xSLG (.480), and is generating swing-and-misses at the ninth-lowest (17.8%) rate. All this has culminated in an xERA of 6.00 (ninth percentile) and 4.49 xFIP.

After getting stronger actual results than expected for most of the season, that regression reared its ugly head big time in Quintana’s disastrous last start against Tampa Bay. Maybe not to that extent, but those kind of results resemble much more the results Quintana has deserved from his pitching this season.

Jose Quintana. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

As far as his pitch profile goes, two of the four pitches he throws at least 10% of the time has an xBA above .300. His sinker, which generated a batting average against of only .196 last season (.236 xBA), has an xBA of .302 this year. Meanwhile, his curveball has been one of the worst pitches in the big leagues this year, generating an xBA of .391. Another pitch that has regressed big time for him.

For comparison’s sake, manager Carlos Mendoza announced earlier in the week that starting pitcher Adrian Houser, who has struggled mightily (8.16 ERA) is being moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen. His analytical profile matches up very similarly to the struggling Quintana:

Quintana is now 35 years old and is on pace for once again seeing his expected numbers take another step back from where they were in the previous season. Back in 2021, Quintana had a disastrous season posting a 6.43 ERA across only 63 innings. He figured it out in 2022, putting together arguably the best season of his career (2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 165 2/3 innings). The Mets then signed him in 2023 where he missed a majority of the year with injury before coming back and put up so-so numbers. Now, he is looking more like his 2021 self.

If New York is serious about contending for a playoff spot this year, they need Quintana to find some of the form he had last year. Albeit, the results on the surface last season were much better than the expected statistics (3.57 ERA versus 4.55 xERA). However, that would be much more serviceable than the pitcher has shown to be through seven starts this year.

If not, and these type of results keep coming, would the Mets remove another starter from their rotation? The 35-year-old veteran is slated to be a free agent at year’s end and New York suddenly has a surplus of potential replacements on the horizon. Namely, Christian Scott just made his debut while Joey Lucchesi has put up strong results in Triple-A (2.25 ERA through six games). Not to mention, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill are all nearing returns from injury.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball Savant and Fangraphs. 

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