Less than 12 hours after the Mets re-signed Sean Manaea to a three-year, $75 million contract, the Boston Red Sox picked up World Series champion Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million deal, according to Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.

The lifetime Dodger is coming off a down year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He finished the 2024 campaign with a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts and went 1-6. He allowed 16 home runs, 89 hits, 28 walks and struck out 64 batters through 75 ⅓ innings pitched. Buehler has a career 3.27 ERA, is a two-time All-Star, finished in the top ten in Cy Young voting twice, and finished third in NL ROY voting in 2018. He missed all of 2023 and most of 2022 with a UCL tear but showed flashes of his former self in the 2024 playoffs. The 30-year-old appeared in four games for the Dodgers, starting three and finished with a 3.60 ERA. He struck out 13 batters and allowed only five walks and one home run in 15 innings pitched during October.

Buehler did not receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and instead essentially receives one in the same amount from Boston. The deal is pending physical and includes an additional $2.5 million in performance bonuses according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

The Mets were rumored to have been in on Buehler to bolster their rotation before the Manaea signing. It’s unclear if they are done looking at their rotation or if they will continue to seek out similar players like Buehler, along with coveted Japanese free agent Rōki Sasaki. Heading into 2025, the Mets rotation consists of Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas. Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn and Griffin Canning remain as depth options.

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Buehler, who spent his entire career with the Los Angeles Dodgers, had a forgettable season in 2024. Although he closed out the World Series for the Dodgers and earned himself a ring, he pitched to a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts in 2024. He came off his second Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021 when he was named to his second All-Star team and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Sherman reports the market for him is deep, and various contract types remain on the table. One-year and multi-year deals are options, with opt-outs to help him re-establish himself. Expect him to sign a contract in the vein of Sean Manaea in 2023, who signed a two-year deal with the Mets, which included an opt-out after year one.

The rotation remains a key rebuilding sector for the Mets, even after reportedly signing RHP Frankie Montas to a two-year deal Sunday.

Sherman also notes reliever Clay Holmes is on the Mets’ radar, someone who can bolster a bullpen in need of stability. Holmes comes off a four-year stint with the Yankees, where he posted a 2.69 ERA in 220 games. He saved 74 games, struck out 238 batters and walked 69. However, according to Sherman, the Mets might be interested in Holmes as a starter. He only started four games in his big league career, those coming in his rookie season for the Pirates back in 2018. For more on Holmes, read MMO’s free agent profile here.

Speaking of bullpen stability, Mike Soroka spent the 2024 season with the Chicago White Sox, where, after struggling as a starter, excelled in a relief role. The 27-year-old had a 2.75 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 36 innings as a reliever. Soroka started nine games on the South Side, posting an 0-5 record and 6.39 ERA. In 43.2 innings, he struck out 24 batters, walked 24 and allowed 10 home runs. As a reliever, he also went 0-5 but struck out 60 batters, walked 20 and allowed only three home runs.

His slider and fastball remained elite in 2024, with hitters mustering .168 and .195 batting averages against the pitches. However, his sinker and changeup were hit hard, with batters xSLG .558 and .548 against the pitches. Soroka’s 24.2% strikeout and 12.7% walk percentage were career worsts for him, but that may be a result of an increase in vertical movement in his changeup. While he decreased the pitch usage, it was his most erratic pitch.

Soroka began his career with the Atlanta Braves and is an All-Star. He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2019 and sixth in Cy Young voting the same year. As a member of the Braves staff, he was 17-8 with a 3.32 ERA over 44 games (43 starts). He struck out 200 batters, walked 67 and finished his Braves tenure with a 136 ERA+. Injuries derailed much of his career. He suffered an Achilles injury in 2020 and then re-tore the same Achilles in 2021 while walking in the clubhouse.

He’s only pitched 100+ innings once in his career (2019). He pitched 79.2 innings in 2024, the second-most of his career. Teams will view him as a reliever, especially after his success in the role late in the season with the White Sox.

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Position: RHP B/T: R/R
Age: 31 (03/21/1993)

2024 Traditional Stats: 30 GS, 7-11, 150 ⅔ IP, 4.84 ERA, 148 SO, 66 BB, 1.367 WHIP
2024 Advanced Stats: 89 ERA+, 22.6% SO%, 10.1% BB%, 4.71 xERA, 4.71 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR

Cara Owsley / USA TODAY NETWORK

The baseball calendar has turned to December, and with it the Mets made their first big move of the offseason, signing starting 31-year-old pitcher Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Montas will have a player option for that second year.

RUNDOWN

Montas and the Mets have an immediate past, as he made his final two starts of the 2024 season against New York. In his final start of the season, Montas threw four innings, giving up two earned runs and striking out six. In Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, he gave up one earned run in under four full innings. The Mets couldn’t tack on runs against him and ended up losing, 5-3. Montas will turn 32 in March.

It’s a return to the Big Apple for Montas, who had a not-so-stellar run with the Yankees after being dealt in a trade deadline move in 2022. In a year-and-a-half in pinstripes, Montas made just eight starts, amassing a 6.15 ERA and a shoulder surgery. 2024 saw him split his time between the Reds and Brewers, putting in a complete season with 30 starts, 150.2 innings pitched, going 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA.

The signing is eerily familiar to Mets fans after David Stearns and his team signed Sean Manaea and Luis Severino to similar “low-risk, high-reward” short-term deals heading into the 2024 season. The Mets hit big with those two signings, and Stearns hopes to do the same here. Montas was also not given the qualifying offer heading into the offseason, continuing the trend of the Mets signing players they wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to acquire.

Montas made his bones pitching for the Oakland Athletics (RIP) for six seasons, making 89 starts to a 3.70 ERA and finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 2021, a year in which he finished with a career-high 4.0 fWAR. The Mets are counting on his returning to a pitcher’s park as something that will spark him, but park factors or not, his only elongated success was as an Athletic. Montas had a 111 ERA+ in Oakland and was below average at every other stop.

According to Baseball Savant, His fastball velocity ranked in the 70th percentile in 2024, averaging 95.3 MPH, but his other peripherals weren’t as clean. Montas finished below the 50th percentile in xBA, Average EV, Chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. He also finished below the 25th percentile in xERA, walk percentage, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. The Brewers found a way to boost his K% from his time with the Reds, however, going from 7.5 K/9 to 11, while keeping his walk-rate stagnant. Stearns and company will certainly be looking to continue that improvement and beyond with help from the Mets’ pitching lab.

Montas’ four-seam usage increased in 2024, throwing it 33% of the time (up from 28% in 2022 and 12% in his one outing in 2023). He threw his sinker, cutter and splitter at similar rates (19%, 19% and 18%), and rounded out his repertoire throwing his slider 11% of the time. His splitter was by far his best pitch, getting hitters to struggle with a 63 WRC+.

GRADE: B

Frankly, with a low-risk, short-term contract such as this one, and the ones the Mets doled out to Sean Manea and Luis Severino in 2023, it’s nearly impossible to give a grade any higher than a B and any lower than a C. That one-grade difference is predicated upon one’s faith in the baseball decision-maker. After his success in just year one as president of baseball operations, David Stearns certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt.

It’s hard to imagine any major league starting pitching deals ending up with a much shorter AAV than this one. The Angels signed 33-year-old Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract, setting the status quo for what to expect in free agency for pitchers. Looking back, the deal for Montas might be another steal for the Mets.

As is true with every early move in a baseball season, the grade will also be looked at differently based on what happens next. With the addition of Montas, three starting pitchers are expected to be in the Opening Day rotation, along with Kodai Senga and David Peterson, neither of whom pitched a full 2024 season. Additional options include José Buttó, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn, injury permitting.

Of course, this is just the first signing of many for the Mets and their rotation. Montas profiles to slot into a backend rotation role, likely a fourth or fifth starter. The Mets don’t expect him to be their ace right now. They will sign more starters. However, as 2024 proved with Manaea and Severino, anything is possible.

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There’s no doubt the Mets will continue to make similar one-to-two-year signings for low-risk, high-reward pitchers after their success last year. However, the question remains: will they target a front-line starter? The ace market is thin, and names like Max Fried and, of course, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell will be on everyone’s radar.

However, of the four, Burnes and Snell stand out as two pitchers who would star as true aces on a team and have done so in the past. So, who should the Mets sign to fill their number one spot in the rotation? A four-time All-Star and NL Cy Young like Burnes or two-time Cy Young winner and ERA leader?

Fellow MMO editor Mathias Altman-Kurosaki and I debate.

Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Sign Blake Snell

If you asked me in June who my top pitching target was, the answer would’ve been Corbin Burnes. Once Snell returned from the injured list though, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. From July 9 until the end of the season, Snell had a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts and held opponents to a .382 OPS over 80 1/3 innings. This dominant stretch included a no-hitter against the Reds. What this tells me is that with a normal spring training, Blake Snell has the potential to contend for another Cy Young award. Snell has had control problems in the past, making him a riskier arm, but he was able to keep the walks in check in 2024, especially when he came back from the IL. At this point, Snell has a higher ceiling than Burnes and will be worth the contract he’s commanding.

Corbin Burnes, Photo by Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Sign Corbin Burnes

It’s crazy to say Corbin Burnes struggled in 2024 while still posting a 2.92 ERA. Yes, he went through some rough stretches but worked to adjust a few pitch mechanics, specifically on his cutter, and the ace was back to normal. The O’s gave up a hefty haul for a year of Burnes, and he delivered another sub-3.00 ERA, his fifth in seven years of big league play. Arguably the best starter in the 2024-2025 free agent class, Burnes ranked in the 98th percentile in run value, 96th percentile in fastball run value, 88th percentile in breaking run value, 95th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 91st percentile in fastball velocity and 89th percentile in chase percentage.

While there are concerns regarding Burnes striking out a career-low 23.1% of batters in 2024, his velocity shows no signs of decline. According to Baseball Savant, his average fastball velocity in 2024 sat at 95.5 mph, up from 94.5 mph in 2023 and matching his 2021 Cy Young winning season velocity. While he may not be the strikeout pitcher he once was, there’s more said for durability. Since debuting in 2018, Burnes has only spent time on the IL twice, and once was for COVID-19.

He possesses a clutch factor — a 2.33 career ERA in the postseason. He most recently pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Orioles against the Royals in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.

While strikeouts and flashy awards are sexy at the end of the day, durability cannot be overlooked. His contract will be hefty, certainly over the $200 million mark, but at the end of the day, the Mets need a bona fide ace. Burnes fits that role and can act as a mentor to younger pitchers in the organization as well.

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Position: SP, B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 29 (05/31/1995)

2024 Traditional Stats: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.917 WHIP, 2-0, 20 SO, 1 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 44.4% K%, 2.2% BB%, 2.66 xERA, 0.08 FIP, 0.59 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR

2023 Traditional Stats: 21 GS, 128.0 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 6-6, 107 SO, 34 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 112 ERA+, 20.1% K%, 6.4% BB%, 4.83 xERA, 3.87 FIP, 3.96 xFIP, 2.1 fWAR

Rundown

Shane Bieber has only represented the Cleveland Guardians in his six-year big league career. He debuted in 2018, pitching to a 4.55 ERA. However, Bieber proved his dominance in his sophomore campaign, posting a 3.28 ERA in 33 starts with 259 strikeouts and threw three complete games with two of those being shutouts. He placed fourth in American League (AL) Cy Young voting and was named to his first All-Star team, where he was also named the All-Star Game MVP in his home ballpark.

Bieber’s best season came in the shortened 2020 campaign, where he became a Triple Crown winner. In 12 starts, he won a league-high eight games, posted a league-best 1.83 ERA across 77 1/3 innings, and struck out a league-high 122 batters. Not only did he earn a Cy Young, but he placed fourth in AL MVP voting after coming in first in the AL in ERA+ (273) and first in all of baseball in FIP (2.07) and strikeouts per nine innings (14.2).

Injuries plagued Bieber’s 2021 season in Cleveland. He made only 16 starts (including Opening Day) and threw 96 2/3 innings, posting a 3.17 ERA. Even though he spent most of the season on the 60-day injured list, he was named an All-Star. He returned to his dominant ways in 2022, eclipsing the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2019, and won a Gold Glove while placing seventh in AL Cy Young voting. However, injuries followed in 2023 and 2024, with Tommy John surgery effectively ending his 2024 campaign after only two solid starts (12 innings, 20 strikeouts, one walk, 10 hits, zero runs allowed).

The right-handed starter relies on five pitches: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, knuckle-curve, and cutter. Never a flamethrower, his fastball topped at around 94.3 mph in 2020. However, in 2023, his velocity hit a career-low 89.2 mph. While this is cause for concern, it did tick back up to 91.0 mph in his brief two starts in 2024 before a torn UCL in his throwing arm took him out for the season.

Bieber had been dealing with elbow inflammation as early as the 2023 surgery, missing another significant chunk of the season. While he hit “career-lows” not seen since his rookie year, he still pitched to a 3.80 ERA and struck out 107 batters. Bieber has excelled at limiting walks, never giving up more than 40 in a season (2019). He walked a career-low 8.1% of batters in 2021, still ranking in the 52nd percentile in the league. After that, he’s never ranked lower than the 80th percentile in walk percentage in a season.

Overall, healthy, Bieber is a pitcher who does not walk many while relying on nasty stuff to get swing-and-misses and subsequently several strikeouts. Health is certainly a concern, as he has thrown more than 130 innings in two of his seven big league seasons. However, a healthy Bieber, and one that represents more of his pre-2023 self, is one of the better pitchers in the majors.

Photo by David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Bieber will net a one-year, $12 million contract this offseason. Most importantly, Bieber will not be ready until around the trade deadline in 2025. For any team that signs him, it’s the equivalent of acquiring a player at the trade deadline to help boost their chances of making the playoffs.

While some teams might take a gamble and offer him a two-year deal (potentially including an option), Bieber will likely only seek a one-year deal to try to up his stock for the following offseason in hopes of scoring a lucrative multi-year deal.

Recommendation

The Mets’ rotation is thin in 2025. This is an understatement. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are the only locks, leaving three open spots. After their success in 2024, the Mets are playing to win in 2025. President of baseball operations David Stearns took a gamble with contracts on Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last offseason, reclamation projects who declined the Mets’ qualifying offer. There is no doubt the Mets will want to try and strike gold twice.

While that strategy is trickier with Bieber because of his injury, he would add an extra jolt to a rotation come summer if the Mets are in the thick of a playoff race. If not, the team can then flip him to a contender. It’s a riskier deal than a Manaea or Severino, but it’s another low-risk, high-reward the Mets should consider as long as they can fill out the rotation first.

The post Free Agent Profile: Shane Bieber, SP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Along the way, David Peterson blossomed into a bonafide starter, but more importantly, David Stearns’ additions of Sean Manaea and Luis Severino proved vital.

In his first year as president of baseball operations with the Mets, Stearns approached the rotation with a simple philosophy demonstrated through the players he signed: low-risk, high reward. He courted players who either experienced highs like Severino but injury-plagued seasons got the best of them or flashed signs of brilliance like Manaea but couldn’t produce it consistently. The Mets took a flyer on both these players, each producing career-best years or close to them.

While we know the Mets will look to sign a front-line starter like Corbin Burnes, they still need to fill out the rotation after Peterson and Kodai Senga. Below, we examine who David Stearns and the Mets can turn to in the rotation come 2025 to try and strike gold twice with this similar “low risk, high reward” mentality.

Photo by David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Shane Bieber

A Cy Young and Triple Crown winner in 2020, Shane Bieber would never have been on this list as recently as a year ago. However, the injury bug caught him, and after pitching just 12 innings in 2024 and 128 innings in 2023, the starter went under the knife in April, another Tommy John surgery victim. In his six-year career with Cleveland, he’s pitched 200+ innings twice, once in 2019 and 2022. After that however, he’s never pitched over 128 innings (2023), hitting 114.2 in his 2018 rookie season and 96.2 innings in 2021.

Bieber, a Gold Glove winner, and two-time All-Star, relies on a five-pitch arsenal: a four-seamer, slider, changeup, knuckle-curve and cutter. He owns a career 3.22 ERA over 843 innings pitched, striking out 958 batters while only walking 188. Of concern over the past couple of years was Bieber’s strikeout percentage decline. He saw season highs during 2021 at 33.1%, but that number steadily declined to 25% in 2022 and a career-low 20.1% in 2023. However, while he only made two starts in 2024, he struck out 20 batters and only walked one. His velocity saw an uptick in 2024 after hitting career lows in 2022 and 2023, another sign things were turning his way before injury.

While Bieber won’t be ready for the start of the season (he’s expected to return around mid-season), he can bolster any rotation in the thick of a playoff race, adding the extra boost to cross the finish line. His deal could easily include an option for 2026, which he can decline if he bounces back healthy.

Matthew Boyd, 79mph Wipeout Slider. 🌊 pic.twitter.com/hEckjRMrrC

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 7, 2024

Matthew Boyd

Another Tommy John victim, Matthew Boyd, lost all of 2023 and most of 2024 in recovery. With 891 career strikeouts through 908.1 innings, the southpaw hasn’t pitched over 100 innings since 2019, but the Guardians might’ve unlocked something in Boyd in 2024. While he only pitched in just over 39 innings, including 11.1 brilliant innings of one-run postseason ball, Boyd never went more than six innings in a start, averaging around five innings per start. He held batters to a grim .212 batting average, walking 13 and striking out 46.

Hitters were left shaking their heads after each at-bat, coming up with a .150 BA against Boyd’s fastball, .167 BA against the curveball and .148 average against the slider. Lefties hit .143/.226/.357, while righties didn’t fare much better, slashing .230/.296/.344 against the southpaw. The Mets proved with Luis Severino they know how to help a pitcher bounce back from injury with light loads the previous couple of years.

Trevor Williams, Nasty 82mph Changeup…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/xIRCemW3Hy

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2024

Trevor Williams

Trevor Williams is no stranger to Queens, acquired in the Javier Báez trade that sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Chicago Cubs. Williams spent half of the 2024 season on the IL with a right flexor muscle strain, but in his 13 starts, he struck out 59 batters and walked 18 through 66.2 innings. Williams’ best years came with the Mets in 2021-2022. He posted a 3.17 ERA with the Amazins’ in 122 innings, with a career-best 123 ERA+ in that span. He was used as a reliever and spot starter, thriving in any role the Mets threw him in.

While Williams missed half the season, he ranked in the top seven percent in baseball in weighted on-base average (wOBA) at .248 and in the top 10% in xwOBAcon (.325). His 3.17 xERA against his 2.03 ERA proved he was efficient at suppressing runs. A reason for Williams’ success in 2024? After posting a career-worst 5.55 ERA in 2023, Williams dropped his curveball in 2024. Batters hit .314 and slugged .629 against the curve in 2023. Williams held the best fastball run value on the Nationals in 2024 (12), fooling batters to a .196 batting average against. In 2023, he had a negative eight-run value on the fastball, and hitters were mashing .283 against it. He decreased his fastball use and increased his sweeper use as a put-away pitch.

Jose Butto filled Williams’ role in the bullpen, but the Mets might want to take a flyer on Williams as a full-time starter.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Walker Buehler

Like Bieber, Walker Buehler is a fascinating case. After missing most of the 2022 season and all of the 2023 season, Buehler returned to the Dodgers rotation in mid-May after Tommy John surgery. Between 2017 and 2022, he posted a 3.02 ERA in 638.1 innings, striking out 690 and walking 162. In 2024, the righty started 16 games, allowed 16 home runs, struck out 64 and walked 28. He pitched to a career-worst 5.38 ERA in 75.1 innings, winning only one game. However, he became a postseason hero, pitching as a starter and in relief. In 15 innings of work, he held batters to a .211 BAA, compared to a .286 BAA in the regular season. He struck out 13 batters and only walked five.

Since debuting in 2017, Buehler has only thrown more than 100 innings thrice: in 2018, 2019 and 2021, when he eclipsed 200 innings. While his velocity has taken a dip throughout the years, so has the effectiveness of his breaking stuff. In 2021, arguably his best season, his fastball has a run value of 19, his sweeper, seven, curveball sat at five, sinker, three, and changeup, five. In 2024, Buehler’s fastball run value was negative eight, his cutter, his most effective pitch, was seven, curveball and sinker were negative five, His cutter and sweeper were the only pitchers in 2024 to hold a positive run value, at seven and two.

While this is all cause for alarm, Buehler displayed a familiar version of himself in October, ultimately helping the Dodgers secure a World Series win. For a Dodgers rotation riddled with injury after injury in 2024, it’s unknown if Buehler rushed back too soon. Whether he commands a one-year or multi-year deal, Buehler can strengthen any rotation.

Final Thoughts

As noted, the Mets are on the hunt for an ace, with the likes of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried on their radar (to name a few). However, after Peterson and Senga, the rotation is bleak. The depth chart consists of Tylor Megill and David Peterson right now. There are plenty of prospects, too, but you can’t bank on them filling out a rotation. While the team will make a flurry of smaller deals to build depth, filling the back of the rotation is equally as important. 2024 proved that when one door closes, another one opens, which led to some incredible pitching performances from starters.

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Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (10/22/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 32 G, 194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 15-9, 181 SO, 48 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 128 ERA+, 23.1% SO%, 6.1% BB%, 3.27 xERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.7 fWAR

Rundown

Starting pitching is more crucial than ever, and the Mets understand they’ll need to strengthen their rotation. Although their pitching staff performed admirably last season, the lack of a true ace and injuries ultimately cost them. Among the potential solutions being heavily considered is Corbin Burnes, a pitcher the Mets have long had their eye on.

After a rocky start to his Major League career, Burnes eventually lived up to his top-prospect status, making a major leap with a 2.11 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Since then, he’s been a dependable force, avoiding arm injuries throughout his career. In the last three seasons, he’s thrown at least 193 innings each year and at least 167 innings in the last four.

This performance led to the Orioles trading two top prospects, Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, along with their 2024 competitive balance draft pick, to acquire one year of Burnes from the Brewers. He proved worth the cost, giving Baltimore 32 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3 innings, and capping off his season with an eight-inning, one-run outing in a playoff duel against Cole Ragans.

Since 2021, Burnes ranks fourth in innings pitched among all Major League pitchers with 757 innings, and his 2.94 ERA during this stretch nearly mirrors his performance this past season. He reached a career-high velocity with the Orioles, averaging 95.3 mph on his cutter and 97 mph on his two-seamer. His walk rate of 6.1% this season was his second-lowest ever, close to the career-best 5.2% he set during his 2021 Cy Young season.

A four-time All-Star, Burnes had a strong season with the Orioles last year, posting a 15-9 record. Over his career, the 30-year-old right-hander holds a 60-36 record and a 3.19 ERA, spanning 199 appearances and 138 starts.

While Burnes’ 2024 strikeout rate of 23.1% was his lowest in recent years, it’s still slightly above the league average of 22.6%. Notably, batters made contact on 86.8% of their swings on pitches in the zone against him — a significant jump from his 2021 mark of 80.5%.

Despite Burnes’ punchout dip, his 12.9% swinging-strike rate remains above average. Though he may not be the high-strikeout pitcher he once was, Burnes is still a hard-throwing, durable pitcher who limits walks, generates swings and misses, and controls contact effectively.

Contract

Corbin Burnes remains one of the league’s top pitchers and would be a No. 1 starter on most teams. A $200 million contract would place him in an elite group, as only eight pitchers have ever hit that mark. Burnes is aiming to become the ninth. Teams will likely break down his stats to weigh the value and risks of such a large investment.

Projections vary: some suggest he could net $25 million per year over five years, while others estimate four years at $35 million annually. Spotrac places his market value around $30.1 million annually, projecting a six-year, $181 million contract, while MLB Trade Rumors envisions Burnes signing a seven-year, $200 million deal.

Recommendation

In 2024, the Mets relied on the steady contributions of starters like Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea. However, the absence of Kodai Senga and a true ace ultimately hindered their success in the late playoff rounds. Despite a slight dip in strikeout rates, Corbin Burnes remains among the current crop of elite pitchers, an obvious target for Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the Met leadership to bring in and solidify the rotation.

While a long-term contract for a pitcher over 30 may carry some risk, Burnes’ current performance level suggests he would remain highly effective throughout much of his contract, fitting well within the Mets’ competitive window. Quality pitching depth is essential, and Burnes fits that bill for the Mets.

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Position: SP Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 33 (12/21/1990)

Traditional Stats: 24 G, 9-9, 3.77 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 131.1 IP, 110 SO
Advanced Stats: 2.2 fWAR, 4.28 FIP, 4.13 xERA, 20.0 SO%, 7.3 BB%

Rundown

The 33-year-old Florida native is now roughly four years removed from a terrific run as a part of a young stable of strong Cleveland Indians’ starting pitchers. From 2016 through 2020, Mike Clevinger posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP with Cleveland. However, he has yet to regain that form as he is still trying to work his way fully back from the Tommy John surgery he had in November of 2020.

After the surgery, Clevinger finally returned in 2022, tossing 114 1/3 innings with the San Diego Padres. He struggled, posting a 4.33 ERA and 87 ERA+. The underlying metrics were ugly, as both his breaking and offspeed pitches had run values below the league’s 20th percentile. His xERA, xBA, K%, chase rate, and whiff rate all ranked below the league’s 40th percentile. However, last season, Clevinger took a step forward, throwing 131 1/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox, posting a strong 3.77 ERA.

In 2023, Clevinger improved mightily across the board. His solid 3.77 ERA and 110 ERA+ indicates that he is still likely an effective bottom-of-the-rotation starter. Additionally, the increases in basically every single underlying metric further indicates there is likely a higher ceiling that can be reached as he continues to work his way back from his debilitating injury.

Specifically, in 2023, he posted an xERA and an xBA in the league’s 52nd and 53rd percentiles, respectively. He also posted run values of the three main pitch types – fastball, breaking, and offspeed – above the league’s 65th percentile. The big right-handed pitcher did a good job limiting walks (65th percentile), avoiding opponent’s barrels (63rd percentile), and avoiding hard contact (72nd percentile hard hit rate). He had a strong season as it compares to a projectable No. 4 of 5 starter

Clevinger is certainly a pitcher that projects to be able to serve a valuable role in any teams rotation 2024. This especially if he continues to get better post-surgery and the fact he is not yet 35 years old.

Note, Clevinger had been under investigation after being accused of domestic abuse by the mother of one of his children. However, the league announced in March of 2023 that he would not face discipline under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Clevinger voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the treatment boards that cover domestic violence and drugs of abuse and also agreed to comply with any recommendations those boards make, according to the report.

Contract

According to Fangraph‘s crowd-sourced projections, Clevinger is being forecasted to net a two-year deal worth $12 million annually. For comparison sake, other pitchers who project to pitch in a similar role as Clevinger this year have already received the following deals:

• 34-year-old Seth Lugo: Two-years, $26 million
• 32-year-old Michael Wacha: Three-years, $39 million
• 36-year-old Kenta Maeda: Two-years, $24 million
• 33-year-old Nick Martinez: Two-years, $18 million

A two-year deal, with potentially an opt-out or team option, worth around $10-to-$14 million makes the most sense. This would allow both for a team to get solid value for a No. 4 starter and Clevinger to cash in while he continues to try to re-establish himself post-Tommy John surgery.

Recommendation

The starting pitcher market is quickly dwindling down. Of the 35 starting pitchers originally on the market who Fangraphs project to post at least 1.0 WAR next season, 18 of them have already agreed to terms. The options are getting limited.

As it currently projects, the Mets’ starting rotation looks as such:

1. Kodai Senga
2. José Quintana
3. Luis Severino
4. Adrian Houser
5. Tylor Megill

The Mets also has Joey Lucchesi and José Butto as depth. However, as it currently stands, it is a group that desperately needs at least one-or-two more additions.

Clevinger is not a flashy name, however, he would plug the bottom of the rotation much better than the likes of either Houser or Megill. He also comfortably outperformed Severino, who is also trying to work his way back from injury. Of course, if it does not work out, and the Mets find themselves selling once again at the deadline, they can always move Clevinger, who projects as a short-term deal candidate, around at the trade deadline.

With all that being said, Clevinger would be an efficient add to a rotation that desperately needs one.

The post Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger, SP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

David Stearns. Photo by Mike De Sisti

Starting Pitching

While the Mets have been linked to the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Erick Fedde in the past 24 hours, Stearns shared his approach to constructing a rotation. When asked whether the Mets needed a frontline starter for success, Stearns noted, “You can put together a very competitive and solid pitching staff in a variety of different ways.”

The Mets tried the aging co-ace route last season with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but things didn’t go their way. Reports show they are high on Yamamoto, as they should be. However, the emergence of the Fedde rumors and the recent signing of Luis Severino show that depth is just as important. Without it, you can’t get through a season. The Mets might even go for a six-man rotation this season if they feel it’s the right thing to do.

Designated Hitter

Ever since the DH became official in the National League, the Mets haven’t been able to find their permanent guy at the position. Daniel Vogelbach never quite worked out, and from there, it’s been a rotation of constant inconsistency in the role.

When asked about the role and potential candidates, Stearns noted both DJ Stewart and Mark Vientos are both internal candidates. Discussing the importance of Stewart, Stearns commented, “he’s an at-bat first player, and where exactly that fits best will be dependent on how the rest of the offseason shapes out and rest of the roster shakes out.”

Pete Alonso

Entering his final year under contract, Pete Alonso‘s name has been swirling in trade rumors ever since the August deadline this past summer. When asked whether teams are still in contact with the Mets regarding the Polar Bear, Stearns made clear, as he has in the past, “Pete’s a really good player, and I expect him to be a Met on Opening Day.”

The post Winter Meetings Day 2: Stearns on Pitching, DH and Alonso appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: Starting Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 05/01/91 (32)

Traditional Stats: 27 G, 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 136 2/3 IP, 119 K

Advanced Stats: 2.7 fWAR, 3.58 FIP, 4.18 xERA, 9.0 BB%, 20.7 K%

Rundown

After attending the prestigious Duke University, Marcus Stroman was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft. He would quickly navigate his way through the Blue Jays farm system before making his MLB debut in 2014.

Stroman made an immediate impact in his rookie campaign, starting 20 games with 11 wins and a 3.65 ERA. His advanced metrics show that this was no fluke, as he accumulated a 2.84 FIP and 3.4 fWAR.

His path to success was promptly interrupted by a torn ACL that required surgery, which curtailed most of his 2015 season. However, in only four starts, he pitched to a 1.67 ERA in 27 innings.

Since then, Stroman has established himself as one of the premier durable starters in the league, eclipsing 30 games started in three of his next four seasons after that. While he struggled in 2016 with an uninspiring 4.37 ERA, he bounced back in 2017 with a 3.09 ERA in 201 innings pitched. His ability to produce quality results while staying on the field has made Stroman a hot commodity among contenders.

Although he struggled in 2018 with just 19 games started and a 5.54 ERA, he secured his first All-Star selection in 2019. He started his All-Star campaign with the Blue Jays, where he accumulated a 2.96 ERA among 21 starts until he was traded to the New York Mets around the trade deadline period.

This trade would bring Stroman into the New York spotlight during a pennant race, and he did not disappoint. In 11 starts, he struck out 60 batters in 59 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA. While the Mets did not live up to their playoff aspirations that season, Stroman played a large part in keeping them afloat during the final months of the season.

Consequently, Stroman made the personal decision to withdraw from playing in the 2020 shortened season. However, his absence in 2020 did not impact his 2021 results, as he started an impressive 33 games with a 3.02 ERA. While his ground ball rate was lower than usual at 50.8%, his career-best 7.94 strikeouts per nine innings shows that Stroman is a versatile pitcher who could use several methods to retire batters.

After a commendable season, Stroman entered the free agent market and cashed in on a three-year deal with the Chicago Cubs worth $71 million. He would pick up right where he left off with the Mets during his first season as a member of the Cubs. In 25 games started, he accumulated a 3.50 ERA in 138 2/3 innings with 119 strikeouts.

He would continue this success in his second year with the Cubs, where he nabbed his second All-Star selection. Like the previous season, he started 25 games and struck out 119 batters. The only difference is that his ERA increased to 3.95.

Despite that, Stroman decided to opt out of his remaining year with the Cubs and test the free-agent market once again. The right-handed pitcher, known for his outstanding career ground ball rate of 56.7 percent, looks to leverage his pedigree of reliability and success to earn himself a more lucrative deal.

Stroman’s repertoire most notably includes his sinker, which he used 46.4 percent of the time in 2023. This is the pitch that has generated a lot of ground balls for Stroman during his career. He also features a slurve that had a tremendous whiff rate of 30.6 percent in 2023. His combination of strikeouts and ground balls has made his skillset unique among the vast array of flamethrowers around the league.

Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

Contract

The idea to include a third-year player option in his initial contract with the Cubs paid off for Stroman, as he enters the free agent market as a 32-year-old reliable starting pitcher with multiple years of experience.

MLB Trade Rumors estimates that Stroman will receive a two-year deal worth $44 million, citing Nathan Eovaldi‘s similar two-year $34 million contract he signed with the Texas Rangers as the floor for what Stroman would get. They claim that he could potentially earn a three-year deal, depending on the demand for starting pitchers this offseason.

Recommendation

The Mets are in a position where they can use all of the help they can get in the starting pitching department. The recent injury news regarding David Peterson only magnifies this concern.

Despite his controversial relations with the Mets’ fanbase and media, Stroman would be a great asset for this Mets team as he has proven he can succeed in the Citi Field environment. Further, he has displayed a knack for staying on the field without compromising the quality of production.

If they can negotiate a deal within a reasonable range, it would be an intelligent decision to bring Stroman back to Queens.

The post Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.