Age: 36 (2/22/1989) B/T: R/R

2025 Traditional Stats: 11-9, 3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 170 1/3 IP, 166 SO, 52 BB, 32 G (31 GS)
2025 Advanced Stats: 108 ERA+, 22.6 K%, 7.1 BB %, 4.18 xERA, 4.01 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR

Rundown

Chris Bassitt turned in another solid year in the middle of Toronto’s rotation, finishing second on the team in innings pitched while topping 30 starts for the third season in a row. In his three years with the Blue Jays, Bassitt’s 95 starts were fifth in MLB, and his 541 1/3 innings pitched were ninth.

The 11-year veteran may be starting to show his age. The average velocity on his fastball was down to a career-low 91.4 mph. That was in the 12th percentile leaguewide, per Baseball Savant. Bassitt’s career average velocity for the pitch is 93.3 mph, and a decade ago, it was 94.5 mph when he was dealing for the Athletics.

But there were little, if any, clues that Bassitt was on the downside of his career when it came to performance. That same Baseball Savant page shows batters’ average exit velocity against him at 87.7 mph and a hard-hit percentage of 36.6%, placing Bassitt in the 85th and 80th percentiles for those categories, respectively.

Plus, his ERA, WHIP, xERA (4.18) and xFIP (3.84) all improved a bit from 2024. Bassitt’s strikeout and walk percentages were in line with his career averages, though his home run percentage was up a tick to 3.0 from a career 2.6 mark.

One of his best outings of the year was on April 5, when he struck out nine Mets over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. (The Mets fought back from a 2-0 deficit against the Toronto bullpen, winning on a Francisco Lindor walk-off sacrifice fly).

He made his final regular-season start on September 18 before being placed on the injured list with lower back inflammation. He missed the Division Series but returned to throw 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball out of the bullpen in the ALCS and World Series. The one run he gave up was crucial, however, coming in the sixth inning of Game 7 against the Dodgers.

“I hope I have another chance with this group,” he said, his voice cracking, in the locker room after Game 7. “I really do. I love this room. I love these guys. You never know, but I would love to have another shot with this group.”

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year, $38 million deal for Bassitt. The website ranks him as the ninth-best free agent starting pitcher on the market, right between Shota Imanaga and Merrill Kelly. Bassitt is coming off a three-year, $63 million contract with the Blue Jays that he signed after his one year with the Mets.

He went 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA when he made 30 starts for New York in 2022. The Mets extended Bassitt the qualifying offer that offseason, and when the Blue Jays signed him, the Mets were awarded a fourth-round draft pick. The Mets used the pick on RHP Austin Troesser, who has pitched to a 4.29 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 65 minor-league innings.

Recommendation: Stay Away

Bassitt’s 170 1/3 innings pitched would have led the Mets, and I expect him to have another fine season. But I don’t think New York needs more mid-rotation arms. As it stands now, there are at least seven potential candidates for five or six spots in the rotation.

The post Free Agent Profile: Chris Bassitt, SP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RHP B/T: R/R

Player Data: Age: 30 (09/27/1995)

2025 Traditional Stats: 68 G (1 start), 69 2/3 IP, 2.07 ERA, 0.962 WHIP, 4-2, 75 K, 22 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 187 ERA+, 27 K%, 8% BB%, 2.77 xERA, 2.93 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 1.3 fWAR, 1.4 bWAR

Rundown

Brad Keller debuted as a 22-year-old with the Royals after being poached from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft and had a few solid seasons as a starting pitcher to begin his career. However, he endured a couple of rocky seasons in 2021 and 2022 before missing most of 2023 due to a shoulder injury. He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after that season and signed a minor league contract with the White Sox but was designated for assignment early in the season. He then struggled in a limited sample size after signing with the Red Sox.

Shortly before spring training in 2025, Keller inked a minor league deal with the Cubs and did enough to crack the Opening Day roster as a reliever. In his first full season pitching out of the bullpen, Keller flourished, entering Craig Counsell‘s circle of trust and serving as the primary setup man for closer Daniel Palencia. Overall, Keller appeared in 68 games and posted a 2.07 ERA in 69 2/3 innings, and his strikeout rate increased to a career-high 27.2%. Additionally, Keller’s hard-hit rate dropped to a career-low 30.6% and his opponents’ average exit velocity of 86.5 mph was also the lowest mark of his career. Keller allowed just four home runs, and his ground-ball rate increased to 55.5%, the highest he’s had over a full season. From 2021 to 2024, Keller’s opponents owned an .804 OPS, but in 2025, he limited them to a weak .512 mark.

Keller was particularly dominant over the final two months of the season, allowing just one earned run and striking out 30 batters over 22 2/3 innings. When Palencia got hurt in September, Keller inherited the closer’s role and kept it in the postseason, during which he converted both of his save opportunities while allowing one earned run and striking out five in 5 2/3 innings. Keller’s 2.77 xERA, 2.93 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP show that his season wasn’t much of a fluke either.

Keller was never a fireballer during his days as a starter, but his average fastball velocity skyrocketed from 93.8 mph to 97.2 mph in 2025. His four-seamer’s run value increased from negative-4 to plus-9, and opponents hit just .208 with a .292 SLG against it. Keller effectively mixed in his sinker as well, which didn’t surrender a single extra-base hit and registered a .179 xSLG as well as a plus-4 run value. Keller’s sinker had a run value per 100 pitches of 2.9, which is one of the highest marks in baseball. While Keller’s slider was hit hard, he increased the usage of his sweeper, against which opponents went just 3-for-41. Keller’s sweeper recorded a 46.4% whiff rate in addition to a .086 xBA and .154 xSLG. Keller’s change-up was also rather effective, posting a 39.7% whiff rate and a .237 xSLG.

Contract

Keller should expect a healthy raise from the $1.5 million he made in 2025. He likely will receive a multi-year deal to serve as a high-leverage reliever. Drew Pomeranz was able to sign a four-year, $34 million contract after the 2019 season despite having a much smaller sample size of success as a reliever. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Keller will ink a three-year deal worth $36 million.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

Whether or not the Mets re-sign Edwin Díaz, it wouldn’t hurt to bring in an arm like Keller to shore up the back end of the bullpen. The team struggled mightily to build a bridge to Díaz in 2025, and Keller proved he can be very effective as a reliever. Even if Keller regresses somewhat, he’d still be a lot better than what the Mets had this year. He also didn’t waver in the playoffs, which is important for a team trying to return to October.

The post Free Agent Profile: Brad Keller, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: SP/RP B/T: R/R

Age: 28 (8/4/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 22 G, 89.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 95 SO, 29 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 91 ERA+, 25.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.42 xERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 1.1 fWAR/0.6 bWAR

Rundown

Michael Soroka had an up-and-down 2025. He signed with the Nationals on a one-year, $9 million deal with the hopes that another year removed from his injuries would help him regain the success he had early on in his career. Soroka made his debut for the Atlanta Braves in 2018 before earning an All-Star nod in 2019 and also finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. That season, he posted 6 bWAR and an ERA+ of 171. Soroka’s 2019 was so good, and achieved at such a young age, that he became one of four pitchers in the divisional-era to have a 6-bWAR campaign in their age 21 season or younger alongside Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden and Mark Fidrych. Following that tremendous season, Soroka’s promising career was derailed by multiple Achilles tears, the first of which occurred against the Mets during the 2020 season. 

After a couple of years of rehabbing, Soroka was traded to the Chicago White Sox in November 2023 in a multi-player deal that sent Aaron Bummer, among others, to Atlanta. In 2024, Soroka found a new role and became a long man for the White Sox. He threw 79 innings and went from a ground-ball pitcher to a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning (9.5 K/9, up from 7.3 in 2019).

While his 2024 was a mixed bag, Soroka made it through the season healthy and was seen as a project an analytics-heavy organization would take a flyer on. He signed with the Nationals, likely because they guaranteed him a rotation spot, and pitched once again to mixed results. However, his underlying metrics were as good, if not better, than they were in 2019. Finishing with a 3.42 xERA, Soroka made it through the 2025 season mostly healthy and retained the velocity on his fastball (93.5 average mph in 2025 and 93.6 in 2025) while also keeping elite spin on his out pitch, which is his slurve (2918 RPM- 2500 is league average).

When projecting Soroka’s free agency, he has a number of factors that should help his candidacy. The first is his age: he’s entering his age-28 season. Soroka is the second-youngest free agent pitcher with MLB experience. Only Dustin May is younger. The second is that Soroka just completed two relatively healthy seasons in a row and retained his spin and velocity metrics in September despite throwing more innings than he did in 2024.

The third factor for Soroka is that he has really strong underlying metrics on his secondary pitches that could improve his results in 2026 and beyond. In 2025, his slurve had a .220 opponent xSLG and his changeup had a .264 opponent xSLG. In contrast, his fastball had a .470 xSLG. Perhaps with higher usage of his changeup (only 10% in 2025) and slurve (34.8%), Soroka can have better results moving forward.

Contract

A contract prediction for Soroka is complicated. He is still young but hasn’t thrown 100 innings since 2019. Building up to be a starter was not the best approach for him in 2025, but it is possible a team will look at his underlying metrics and believe he can produce results closer to them than his surface results in 2025. Therefore, I’d be willing to give a multi-year contract at around $8 million per year. Spotrac estimates that Soroka’s market value is $3.6 million; however, given his strong advanced stats and age, I would bet Soroka makes more than that.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

I would be highly interested in signing Soroka. The Mets are likely looking for top-end starting pitchers and depth pieces. Soroka fits into the latter category. Having a strong swing-man who can get high-leverage outs as well as make a spot start here and there is more valuable than ever in order to get through the 162-game marathon. Soroka’s combination of an above-average ground-ball rate (61st percentile) as well as his improved walk rate (12.7 % in 2024 and 7.7 % in 2025), combined with elite swing-and-miss stuff (38.4% put-away rate and the fifth-lowest xBA against his slurve), makes him a valuable depth piece that could help any contending team.

The post Free Agent Profile: Michael Soroka, SP/RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RHP B/T: R/R
Age: 32 (09/18/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 17 G (7 GS), 54 1/3 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 3-0, 58 SO, 20 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 154 ERA+, 26.1 K%, 9.0 BB%, 4.05 xERA, 3.85 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR

Rundown

Spencer Turnbull’s career has been plagued by injuries, preventing him from finding consistency. When healthy, he has been effective, albeit not particularly dominantly. He owns a 4.06 career ERA and 3.83 FIP, numbers that indicate he’s capable of holding a major league role.

After the 2023 season wrapped up, Turnbull was non-tendered by the team that drafted him in the second round back in 2014, the Detroit Tigers. The Phillies picked him up for $2 million, hoping to get the healthy Turnbull who posted a 4.61 ERA in 148 1/3 innings during the 2019 season. While he didn’t come close to eclipsing that 150-inning mark in 2024, the Phils should still be satisfied with his contributions.

However, Turnbull mainly served as rotational depth for the Phillies. Their star-studded group consisting of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez were more than capable of handling things. Taijuan Walker, while struggling, had a spot over Turnbull as well. So despite the fact he initially earned a spot in the rotation due to an injury to Walker, his return made Turnbull the odd man out. As the season progressed, it became clear that Turnbull deserved the fifth-starter job over Walker. Unfortunately, just as the Phillies recognized this, Turnbull injured his right lat during his first start back in the rotation in June. It would ultimately end his season prematurely.

In 2024, Turnbull posted a 2.65 ERA and 154 ERA+, though it came in just 54 1/3 innings. While the small sample size is worth noting, his advanced stats offer a glimpse of what he has to offer. He struck out 58 in those 54 1/3 innings (9.6 K/9), ranking in the 73rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Additionally, he kept the ball on the ground effectively, with a percentage in the 76th percentile. Despite his decent strikeout numbers, he struggled to generate chases (14th percentile in chase percentage) and wasn’t great at getting whiffs either (49th percentile).

Part of the reason Turnbull has trouble getting swings and misses is due to his relatively soft fastball. In 2021, his fastball velocity was 94.1 miles per hour, but by 2024, it dropped down to 93.2. Interestingly, the pitch classified as his “fastball” is more of a cutting fastball, which is now his primary pitch and thrown at about 92 miles per hour. His best weapon, however, is his nasty sweeper, which features nearly nine inches of horizontal run. Batters hit just .145 against the sweeper, compared to .280 against his cutter.

In addition to his cutter and sweeper, which he threw at a 34.8% and 33.2% clip, respectively, Turnbull also mixes in a sinker, slider, changeup and traditional curveball.

Contract

Turnbull’s extensive injury history will almost certainly limit him to a one-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors’ prediction of a one-year, $7 million contract seems like a reasonable expectation. He finds himself in a unique position where teams could see him as either a starting pitcher or a reliever, but in either role, his contract is likely to fall within the $5-10 million range. His upside remains evident, especially after his solid 2024 showing. Nevertheless, concerns over durability will keep his deal on the shorter side, and it could potentially include incentives or performance bonuses to offset the risk.

Recommendation

Turnbull is far from a bad pitcher; in fact, the opposite may be true. He’s too good to be viewed as mere “depth,” and the Mets already have four pitchers on their roster comparable to him: Jose Buttó, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill. All of those pitchers are borderline No. 5/No. 6 starters and could also factor into the bullpen mix at some point.

However, with injuries an inevitable part of any team’s season, a pitcher like Turnbull provides valuable insurance and can help lighten the load, especially since it appears as though New York is committing to a six-man rotation for the time being. His health may still be a bit of a wild card, but he can offer length as a long reliever or spot starter.

The post Free Agent Profile: Spencer Turnbull, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 38 (06/02/1986)

2024 Traditional Stats: 45 G, 44 1/3 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 3-1, 50 K, 3 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 124 ERA+, 27.8% K%, 1.7% BB%, 3.29 xERA, 2.78 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR

Rundown

Chris Martin had a magical 2023 season that ended with him receiving a Cy Young vote. While his 3.45 ERA was a far cry from the 1.05 mark he posted in 2023, he improved in a lot of ways in 2024. His strikeout rate jumped from 23.1% to 27.8%, his walk rate dropped to a minuscule 1.7% and his xFIP fell from 2.90 to 2.61. A master of control, the 38-year-old amassed a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of an eye-popping 16.67.

Statcast indicates that Martin got quite unlucky this season as well. He over-performed his xERA by over two runs in 2023, but his xERA of 3.29 and FIP of 2.78 this year were lower than his ERA by a sizable amount. Opponents batted .276 against him, but they also had a BABiP of .359, the highest he’s ever allowed over the course of a full season. Hitters also posted a .257 xBA when facing him, which is lower than his .265 mark from 2023. The biggest concern with Martin is the long ball – his home run rate nearly tripled from 1% to 2.8%, and his fly ball rate increased from 15.2% to 21.1%. Still, he allowed just nine extra-base hits on the season, giving up fewer than 10 for the second straight year.

Martin relies on a four-pitch mix – a cutter, four-seamer, splitter and sinker. His velocity was down across the board, but his batted-ball data improved significantly on both his four-seamer and cutter. Martin’s cutter was his most effective pitch, registering a 27.6% whiff rate (up from 20.9% in 2023) and a plus-3 run value. Opponents batted .323 against his splitter, though all hits against it were singles.

Contract

Martin isn’t listed on MLB Trade Rumors‘ Top 50 Free Agents list. FanGraphs predicts he will sign a one-year contract worth $7 million. His last deal was worth $17.5 million over two years from the Red Sox.

Recommendation

Martin has been one of the game’s more underrated arms over the last six years, never recording an ERA+ lower than 111. During that stretch, he hasn’t posted a walk rate higher than 4.5%, and the Mets served up the third-most free passes in the majors in 2024. While he’s never been a team’s closer, he’s frequently been deployed in high-leverage situations and has a 1.88 ERA in 14 2/3 postseason innings. The Mets could use another battle-tested arm for a bullpen that was heavily taxed for much of the 2024 season. Despite his age, Martin would make for a solid fit in Flushing.

The post Free Agent Profile: Chris Martin, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RP  B/T: R/L

Age: 34 (06/17/1990)

2024 Traditional Stats: 62 G, 56 1/3 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.473 WHIP, 4-3, 70 SO, 31 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 116 ERA+, 28.5 K%, 12.6 BB%, 3.59 xERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 0.4 fWAR

Rundown

Andrew Chafin has long been a rumored Mets target, and for good reason. The 34-year-old has cemented his status as one of baseball’s premier, and most reliable, left-handed relievers dating back to his initial tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the start of his career.

The No. 43 overall pick out of Kent State University in 2011, Chafin was a starter in Arizona’s system up through his call-up to the majors in 2014, when he made three outings in that role. He transitioned to the bullpen during the 2015 campaign and flourished, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 3.35 FIP and 58 strikeouts over 75 innings. The southpaw saw his numbers decline in 2016 with a 6.75 ERA across 32 appearances (22 2/3 frames), though he quickly bounced back by brandishing a 3.46 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 225 contests from 2017 to 2019.

Chafin was dealt to the Chicago Cubs in the middle of the 2020 season and would later become a hot commodity at the 2021 deadline after sporting a dazzling 2.06 ERA over 39 1/3 innings that season. The Oakland Athletics made the winning offer for his services, and while the club failed to reach the playoffs, he remained at the top of his game with a 1.53 ERA in 29 1/3 frames.

The Detroit Tigers rewarded Chafin’s efforts once he reached free agency with a two-year deal, which included an opt-out after the first season, worth $13 million in March 2022. He put up a 2.83 ERA that year before declining his player option and bolting for the D-Backs on a one-year pact in 2023. Back where it all started, Chafin recorded a modest 4.19 ERA while his FIP sat at 3.11 in 34 1/3 innings. The Milwaukee Brewers would go on to acquire him at the deadline, and it all came crumbling down as he was responsible for an unsightly 5.82 ERA across 17 innings.

Chafin then returned to Detroit for the 2024 season on a one-year contract with a club option for $6.5 million in 2025. He was productive to the tune of a 3.16 ERA over 37 frames, and while the Tigers went on a miracle-esque run to the postseason, they were on the periphery of the race at the time of the deadline and sent him to the Texas Rangers for pitching prospects Chase Lee and Joseph Montalvo.

There, Chafin finished with a 4.19 ERA in 19 1/3 innings and had his option rejected, causing him to hit the open market for a fourth-consecutive offseason.

While he is a soft-tosser, averaging 91.7 miles per hour on his sinker and four-seam fastball, Chafin misses bats at an elite rate. He finished 2024 with chase and whiff percentages of 35.1 and 34.5, respectively, while punching out 11.18 hitters per nine innings.

Chafin’s slider is his go-to weapon, as he throws it 45.8% of the time. The offering limited batters to a .127 average and .186 slugging percentage last season while generating a whiff rate of 54.7%.

Any concerns with his profile would come due to the fact that his ground-ball rate, which currently sits at 48.1% for his career, has dropped below 40% each of the past two years. That won’t sound any alarms quite yet given that Chafin is a sinker-baller who doesn’t allow much hard contact, but it bears watching moving forward.

He also has a combined walks per nine rate of 4.9 in that same stretch after that number landed at 2.7 over 2021 and 2022, which is drastic enough of a downward shift to raise some eyebrows.

Contract

The reliever market is rather saturated, but Chafin should still make out pretty well. While Texas opted not to pay him $6.5 million for next season, he’s shown that there’s still enough gas in the tank in order to command a pay day that’s not too far off from that amount. A one-year contract in the $4 – $6 million range, similar to his prior agreements, feels like a plausible outcome in this case.

Recommendation

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has been somewhat hesitant to hand out guaranteed deals to relievers in free agency, but that area of the roster is in clear need of a few proven arms, especially of the left-handed variety. Danny Young is the only real threat to crack the Opening Day roster among players who fit that criteria at the moment, with recent minor league signee Brandon Waddell perhaps representing the team’s second-best option.

Thus, it makes all the sense in the world for New York to pursue Chafin. Dependable pitchers with long track records don’t grow on trees, and the Mets should pounce on the opportunity to bring him in as they look to make another trip to the postseason.

The post Free Agent Profile: Andrew Chafin, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 40 (07/27/1984)

2024 Traditional Stats: 9 GS, 43 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 2-4, 40 SO, 10 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 22.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 3.86 xERA, 4.18 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 0.6 fWAR

Rundown

Max Scherzer has amassed 216 victories and 2,878 major league innings, contributing to two World Series championships. A three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star, Scherzer’s career is filled with accolades. Nevertheless, at 40 years old, after a decade of near-unmatched dominance, signs of decline have begun to emerge.

From 2012-2022, Scherzer had posted an ERA below 3.50 every season, with the exception of 2020. However, his ERA rose to 3.77 in 2023 and 3.95 in 2024, supported by FIPS of 4.32 and 4.18, respectively. In the first half of 2023, Scherzer struggled, recording a 4.01 ERA and 4.70 FIP, but a midseason trade led to a resurgence. He rebounded with a 3.20 ERA for the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers. Scherzer helped them secure a postseason berth, though he did struggle in their playoff run.

That being said, Scherzer’s primary problems over the past couple of years have been more about staying on the field. In 2022, Scherzer logged just 145 1/3 innings, his lowest total since 2009 (excluding 2020), revealing a red flag on his durability. Despite the lesser workload, Scherzer remained dominant, delivering a 2.29 ERA and an outstanding 7.21 SO/W ratio for the Mets. This performance reflected his past excellence; between 2014 and 2023, he pitched only one season with an ERA above 3.00, which occurred during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Scherzer began the 2024 season on the 15-day injured list and underwent a long rehab following back surgery. After returning, he made eight starts before abruptly finding himself back on the injured list in early August. He managed one more start in September but was then sidelined again just a week later.

Scherzer’s advanced peripheral stats remain strong. While he did not pitch enough innings to qualify for percentile leaderboards, his 36.4% chase rate is elite. Furthermore, he hasn’t lost control, as evidenced by a 5.6% walk rate that is actually better than his career average of 6.5%. His xERA has obviously been excellent since the Statcast era began, and 2024 was another solid year in that regard. Additionally, even during his relatively average 2023 season (104 ERA+), Scherzer posted a strong 3.28 xERA. That’s slightly concerning, but definitely not deal-breaking.

Contract

Veteran starts over the years have historically fetched notable contracts, and Scherzer himself was no expectation, landing a $130 million deal just a few years ago. However, he is no longer the same pitcher, nor is he coming off a brilliant Cy-Young winning season like his former teammate Justin Verlander was in 2023.

For context, Lance Lynn signed a one-year, $11 million deal two years ago, while Zack Greinke got one year and $13 million the year before. Scherzer, though, is significantly better than Lynn and Greinke were, and the current pitching market must also be considered. There’s probably no chance he gets two years, but Scherzer has no doubt been effective even at 40 years old. MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of one year, $16 million, seems reasonable.

Recommendation

To be clear, Scherzer is no longer the pitcher he once was, but his veteran presence and competitive spirit could make him a valuable asset for the Mets, particularly for mentoring younger pitchers. He would likely slot in as a decent#4 starter or a weaker #3, depending on who David Stearns signs. Unless New York makes a surprise move for a top-tier pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Rōki Sasaki, he can be a viable option for their rotation. Another potential issue could be that the Mets (or Scherzer) have no intention to reunite. Ultimately, the Mets will need to analyze the pitching market and figure out whether Scherzer would be the best option.

The post Free Agent Profile: Max Scherzer, SP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RHP  B/T: R/R

Age: 31 (12/28/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 54 G, 55 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.909 WHIP, 4-5, 50 SO, 12 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 171 ERA+, 23.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.24 xERA, 3.24 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, 1.2 fWAR

Rundown

Heading into the trade deadline last July, Carlos Estévez was one of the top relievers that contending teams were trying to acquire for a postseason push. During his first half of the season with the Los Angeles Angels, the 31-year-old had a two-month stretch where he was one of the better bullpen arms in the game.

From June 1 to Aug. 1, Estévez did not allow a single earned run in 19 appearances. He threw 19 innings and had 16 strikeouts to two walks over that period while allowing just three hits (12-for-12 in saves). This prompted the Philadelphia Phillies to trade for him to bolster their already strong bullpen.

Even though Estévez wasn’t necessarily the only closer for the Phillies, he did get a chance to convert some saves. Over 20 games with the club, he was 6-for-8 in those opportunities while pitching to a 2.57 ERA with 18 strikeouts and seven walks over 21 innings.

Of course, Mets fans will remember Estévez from the playoffs, as he was the pitcher who allowed the grand slam to Francisco Lindor in Game 4 of the NLDS. In fact, New York scored a run in two of the three outings the right-hander had against them in that series.

When you look at Estévez’s pitch arsenal, he is a three-pitch pitcher (fastball, slider and changeup). Since he began his MLB career with the Colorado Rockies in 2016, his average fastball velocity has gone down in every single season (FanGraphs). With that being said, he used his slider more this past season than ever before (28.5%).

Contract

When MLB Trade Rumors did their contract projections for the top 50 free agents of the offseason, they had Estévez earning a three-year deal worth $27 million. If the Mets were to give him that deal, it would make him the second-highest paid reliever on the team behind their current closer, Edwin Díaz. Meanwhile, FanGraphs ranked him as the No. 40 free agent in the class with a projection of only a one-year deal around $9 million.

Estévez made $6.75 million each of the past two seasons and has brought in over $20 million during his career, meaning he is in line for another payday.

Recommendation

The New York Mets do need to add to their bullpen this winter and solidify the bridge to Díaz. They still have that need with the addition of Clay Holmes as a starter, but he has the fallback of pitching in the eighth inning if that role does not work out. At the same time, if the organization is going to go out and pay big money to other high-priced free agents, it might be tough for them to spend significantly on the bullpen.

If the Mets are looking for more swing-and-miss from their relievers, Estévez wouldn’t exactly fit what they are looking for. Last season, his 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings was way down from the 11.3 he had in 2023 when he made the All-Star team. In addition to that, his soft contact rate of 14% was the lowest of his career (FanGraphs).

With Estévez being one of the top closers on the market, it is tough to see him turning down an opportunity to remain in that role for a team if the money is similar. While the right-hander would be an upgrade for New York in their ‘pen, it is tough to see a world where Estévez lands with the team in 2025.

The post Free Agent Profile: Carlos Estévez, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Player Data: Age: 33 (07/26/1991)

2024 Traditional Stats: 63 G, 55 1/3 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 7-3, 67 SO, 25 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 78 ERA+, 27.8% K%, 10.4% BB%, 3.46 xERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 0.0 fWAR

Rundown

Ryne Stanek broke into the majors in 2017 with the Tampa Bay Rays, and was generally decent in the late 2010s, pitching to a 3.80 ERA over 163 1/3 innings from 2017-19. Tampa Bay often used him as an opener, and he made 56 starts with them. However, Stanek was never truly stretched out like a traditional starter. For instance, in 2018, where he started 29 games, he only hurled a total of 66 1/3 innings.

After a forgettable stint with the Miami Marlins, Stanek signed with the Astros in 2021 and had an excellent run with them. The Astros primarily used him as a setup man, and he shined in that role. In three years of service with Houston, he recorded a 2.90 ERA while striking out 196 in 173 2/3 innings pitched, translating to a 143 ERA+.

Stanek showed flashes of ability but struggled with inconsistency and control issues during his time with the Astros (4.6 BB/9, 4.09 ERA in 2023). As a result, he signed a one-year, $4 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. However, his production with the Mariners was lackluster (4.38 ERA, 1.333 WHIP), which led Seattle to trade him to the Mets before the trade deadline in 2024. Unfortunately, Stanek’s struggles continued with New York, as he posted a poor 6.06 ERA down the stretch. Still, he managed to boost his stock in the 2024 postseason, finishing three games with solid performances.

Stanek primarily relies on his 97.7 mph fastball, which he throws about 60% of the time, while also mixing in a splitter and slider, each of which he throws around 20% of the time. When he joined Houston, he slightly increased his usage of the splitter, but aside from that, his pitch selection and velocity have remained relatively consistent over the years, as he has stuck with his three-pitch mix. His fastball velocity has consistently ranged from 97-98 mph, with the exception of a difficult 2020 season.

Stanek’s stuff has always been effective, and in 2024, he demonstrated his value with some standout performances. Last year, he missed bats 33% of the time, which ranked in the 94th percentile, and his strikeout rate of 27.8% placed him in the 82nd percentile. The two biggest knocks on him are his inconsistency in throwing strikes and his tendency to allow hard contact when he does.

Stanek’s walk rate has ranked among the worst in the league in recent years (20th in 2024, 28th in 2023, and 1st in 2022). While his command issues have been a problem, they’ve been solvable in the past. Specifically, Stanek recorded a 1.15 ERA in 2022.

Contract

At 33 years old, Stanek will be forced to look for a short-term contract. It seems reasonable that he could earn a similar salary to what he’s been making in recent years. That would put him somewhere in the range of $2-5 million annually for one or two years. While the market for high-leverage, right-handed relievers is still developing, there isn’t a lot of room for a major raise or cut from his past paychecks.

Recommendation

The Mets have a dire need for bullpen arms, and Stanek’s skillset can fill that void well. His experience in high-leverage situations makes him a viable candidate for the seventh or eighth inning, providing a bridge to closer Edwin Díaz.

While Stanek represents a solid buy-low option with notable upside, his control problems introduce a level of risk. Given his reasonable cost, Stanek is a worthwhile addition for a team looking to strengthen its bullpen, and the Mets are one of those teams.

The post Free Agent Profile: Ryne Stanek, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: OF B/T: R/R

Age: 32 (08/15/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 652 PA, .272/.339/.501/.840, 160 H, 33 HR, 99 RBI

2024 Advanced Stats: 134 wRC+, 28.8 SO%, 8.1 BB%, .344 BABIP, .348 xwOBA, 3.5 fWAR, -11 OAA

RUNDOWN

Teoscar Hernández wrapped up another strong campaign as a member of the World Series-winning Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, solidifying his reputation as one of baseball’s premier power hitters.

Hernández entered the league in 2016, but really broke out as a star player in 2019 and 2020 with the Toronto Blue Jays. Since then, he has established himself as a consistent offensive force, earning two Silver Slugger awards and averaging over roughly 30 home runs per season since 2019 as a member of the Jays, Seattle Mariners and the Dodgers.

Offensively, Hernández boasts a potent combination of power and above-average on-base skills. His .501 slugging percentage ranked among the league’s best (No. 5) this past season, and his 33 home runs surpassed a career-high of 32 set in 2021. 

His .348 xwOBA and 134 wRC+ place him well above league average, making him an appealing middle-of-the-order bat for any lineup. Despite a high strikeout rate of 28.8%, which unfortunately ranks in the bottom ten percent of the league, Hernández’s .344 BABIP suggests he can still produce consistently thanks to his hard contact and ability to drive the ball to all fields.

Defensively, however, Hernández remains a liability. With -3 DRS and -11 OAA in 2024, his range and reaction times raise questions about his long-term viability as an everyday corner outfielder. Still, his above-average arm strength (top 30 percent league wide) can hold value in right field for teams willing to sacrifice defense for offense. Additionally, he could serve as a designated hitter as he ages, and his bat speed has not skipped a beat, remaining in the top third of the league.

As he enters his mid-30s, his sprint speed is slipping below league average. However, his track record of durability (140+ games played in five of the last six seasons) and consistent offensive production make him an appealing option for teams seeking a right-handed power bat.

CONTRACT

Initially seeking a long-term deal, Hernández instead signed a short-term, one-year deal worth $23.5 million with the Dodgers ahead of the 2024 season, a move that paid off for both parties given Los Angeles took home a World Series trophy in October.

He had been seeking a three-year contract prior to signing that deal, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him looking for a contract of that length once more.

MLB Trade Rumors projects that Hernández will receive a three-year deal for $60 million.

RECOMMENDATION

The Mets could have interest in Hernández if they’re looking to add another power bat to the lineup, especially given his ability to mash left-handed pitching (.931 OPS in 2024). 

However, his defensive struggles and the team’s potential outfield depth may make him a better fit elsewhere. Clubs like the Cincinnati Reds or the Dodgers, whom David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports may be closing in on an agreement with the 32-year-old, could be in the market for an outfielder who can slot into a corner position or DH role, maximizing his offensive contributions while minimizing his defensive impact.

With the Mets focused on Soto and pitching, the likelihood that the Mets remain in on Hernández, aside from the occasional check-in, is quite low. 

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