Position: 1B/OF B/T: L/L

Player Data: Age: 30 (7/13/1995)

2025 Traditional Stats: 657 PA, .272/.334/.480/.813, 160 H, 29 HR, 98 RBI

2025 Advanced Stats: 125 wRC+, 13.7% K%, 7.9% BB%, .274 BABiP, .322 xwOBA, 4.9 fWAR, 5.1 bWAR, 7 DRS (LF), -3 DRS (CF), 8 DRS (RF), -1 DRS (1B), 4 OAA (LF), -1 OAA (CF), 2 OAA (RF), 0 OAA (1B)

Rundown

Former NL MVP Cody Bellinger may be among the most polarizing free agents in baseball. In his final three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he struggled heavily after undergoing shoulder surgery and was non-tendered following the 2022 campaign, which was only three years after he won his MVP Award.

He signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs for the 2023 season and turned in a big bounce-back campaign, but was unable to secure a long-term contract in free agency. Instead, Bellinger took a three-year deal with opt-outs after each season to return to the Cubs.

In his first year of that contract in 2024, he missed a chunk of the season and decided not to opt out. He was then traded to the New York Yankees and had a strong 2025 season, leading him to opt out of the final year of his deal. This marks the fourth time in as many years that Bellinger has had to ability to test free agency, and he is reportedly looking for a long-term deal, but it remains unclear if his wishes will be granted.

Bellinger’s slash line in 2025 was amplified by playing in Yankee Stadium. At home, he batted .302/.365/.544 for a .909 OPS and 152 wRC+. On the road, he slashed .241/.301/.414 for a .715 OPS and 97 wRC+. It isn’t as simple as saying he cannot hit outside of Yankee Stadium, though, as Wrigley Field is known for being brutal on left-handed hitters, and across the two seasons he called it home, he slashed .275/.328/.475 for an .802 OPS and 120 wRC+. Sometimes, single home/away season splits can be more noise than anything else.

Under the hood, there are both plenty of things to like with Bellinger and plenty of things to be concerned about.

The Good

• 91st percentile in K rate (13.7%)
• 90th percentile in Pull Air% (20.5%)
• 84th percentile in Whiff Rate (18.1%)
• 80th percentile in Pull% (43%)
• 79th percentile in Zone Contact (87.5%)
• 76th percentile in LA sweet spot (37.1%)
• 72nd percentile in Squared Up% (28.1%)

The Red Flags

• 36th percentile in Barrel Rate (7.5%)
• 33rd percentile in Max EV (110.2 MPH)
• 26th percentile in Hard Hit Rate (37.9%)
• 24th percentile in Average EV (88.8 MPH)
• 20th percentile in Bat Speed (70.1%)
• 20th percentile in 90th EV (102.7 MPH)

Bellinger was also right around league average in walk rate at 8.7% (54th percentile), which prevented him from having a very high on-base percentage despite the high average. His value comes from being an above-average hitter while also being elite defensively in the corner outfield spots with some flexibility to play in center field and an ability to slot in at first base as well. He was also 72nd percentile in sprint speed at 28.2 feet per second, which stayed consistent with his previous two seasons.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors projected Bellinger to ink a five-year contract totaling $140 million. That would be just below the five-year, $150 million deal Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles this offseason.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

If Bellinger is unable to find that five-year or longer contract, he could fit the Mets on a short-term contract. The Yankees have reportedly made a formal offer to retain Bellinger, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the terms are not yet known.

On a three-year deal, Bellinger could fit the Mets’ roster as a left-handed bat that could play both corner outfield spots, first base, and provide some flexibility in center field as needed. He is projected to provide similar offensive value to Brandon Nimmo, but with much better defense. On a short-term deal, he could be a fit for this Mets roster, but on a longer-term contract, the club would likely find themselves in the same situation they were with Nimmo a few years from now.

The post Free Agent Profile: Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: LF B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 30 (07/05/1994)

2025 Traditional Stats: 103 G, 416 PA, .266/.315/.453/.768, 101 H, 16 2B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 29 BB, 107 SO
2025 Advanced Stats: 105 WRC+, 25.7% K%, 7.0% BB%, .326 BABIP, .300 xwOBA, 1.2 fWAR, 0.8 WAR, 1 OAA, -2 DRS, 0 FRV

Rundown

Austin Hays entered the open market following a 2025 season that served as a partial rebound. After a borderline disastrous 2024 split between Baltimore and Philadelphia, Hays posted a 105 wRC+ in Cincinnati, indicating slightly above-average offensive production.

Availability, however, was the defining theme of his 2025 season. Recurring lower-leg injuries—primarily calf and hamstring issues that also plagued him in 2024—limited Hays to 103 games in 2025 after he played just 85 the year prior. That stop-and-start pattern has become the norm, preventing him from compiling the counting stats needed to be an everyday starter.

Even with the missed time, Hays remains an elite weapon against left-handed pitching. In 2025, he torched southpaws to the tune of a .319 average and an OPS north of .900. He can still carry an offense in those matchups, though he is best shielded from high-end right-handed sliders (a pitch he saw 31.6% of the time in 2025, by the way, a career high by more than four percentage points). For teams focused on matchup optimization, his bat still has significant value.

Advanced metrics from 2025 show a hitter actively adjusting to the aging curve. Hays posted a career-high 50.5% pull rate, well above his career average of roughly 44%. This indicates a conscious effort to generate power by selling out to the pull side, perhaps to compensate for any decline in bat speed. That adjustment helped him maintain a decent .187 ISO, but it also increased his exposure to breaking balls away, with his strikeout rate climbing to nearly 26% from 23.1% in 2024.

Defensively, Hays has transitioned almost exclusively to left field, where he profiles as roughly average. He no longer offers any meaningful positional versatility, but his arm is still a significant asset. Earlier in his career, he possessed one of the more valuable outfield arms in the league. That wasn’t the case in 2024 or 2025, but he still ranked in the 88th percentile in arm strength, so there’s no reason to believe that aspect of his game couldn’t bounce back.

Durability is the larger concern. His body has struggled to hold up, making him a risky bet for any club expecting full-season availability. Defensive metrics have long disagreed on his value: from 2020-22, DRS rated him at +4 or better each year, while OAA and FRV were less lenient. He graded out particularly well across all three in 2023, was terrible across the board in 2024, but was serviceable in 2025, finishing with -2 DRS, +1 OAA, and 0 FRV.

Contract

Lefty crushers always have a place on a roster, but they rarely command significant paydays. MLB Trade Rumors recently compared Hays to Rob Refsnyder, who just signed a one-year, $6.25 million deal with the Mariners. That figure likely represents the general range of Hays’ next contract. A two-year deal wouldn’t be surprising, though, especially if the annual value stays modest. A $5-8 million AAV feels realistic whether the contract runs one year or two.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

When I first heard the Mets were interested in Hays, my immediate reaction was confusion. Another Darin Ruf scenario, I thought? And would he be blocking Carson Benge? Those were the first two things that came to mind.

After further analysis, I’d be comfortable signing him. On a one-year deal, he wouldn’t be a deterrent; rather, he’d be more of a safety net. Entering 2026, the Mets have clear vacancies in two of the three outfield spots alongside Juan Soto. Adding Hays would allow David Stearns to maintain flexibility with Benge while still addressing the need for another bat.

Signing Hays creates a “choose your own adventure” scenario for the rest of the offseason.

Option A: Hays/Benge platoon

The Mets add a primary center fielder such as Luis Robert Jr., allowing Benge to platoon with Hays in left field. In this setup, Hays can shield the rookie from tough left-handed starters early in the year, while Benge can gradually takes on the lion’s share of the reps against right-handed pitching.

Option B: Sign a star corner outfielder

The Mets sign a star left fielder like a Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. This would push Benge into a platoon with Tyrone Taylor in center field. In this look, Hays serves as a fourth outfielder and a specialized weapon off the bench.

Both options come with trade-offs. The first would be easier on the budget and allow Benge to ease into major league duties, but the team would be weaker on paper. The second would provide proven star power, yet it would place Benge at a position that prioritizes defense and likely force him into more playing time simply because Taylor is a weaker hitter than Hays.

The post Free Agent Profile: Austin Hays, LF appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: RP B/T: S/R
Age: 38 (9/30/1987)
2025 Traditional Stats: 62 G, 47 GF, 0 HLD, 29 SV, 1 BS, 59 IP, 5-4, 2.59 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 57 SO, 19 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 165 ERA+, 24.4% K%, 8.1% BB%, 3.75 xERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 1 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR

Rundown

With 476 saves, Kenley Jansen is one of the most accomplished closers in MLB history. He already has the fourth-most saves in league history, and 2026 could be the season he reaches 500 saves. Coming off a successful year as the closer for the Los Angeles Angels, he will likely be searching for a role with a team where he can earn those final 24 saves to get to 500.

Even at 38, Jansen still possesses one of the best cutters in the game. His +13 run value was only behind Drew Rasmussen last year, per Baseball Savant. With 18.8 iBV, 2.4 inches of horizontal break, and 2,602 RPM of spin last year, Jansen was able to generate a 25.3% whiff rate. Batters hit .164 with a .302 SLG against that pitch last year.

His cutter is not his only effective pitch, either. His sinker came in with plus movement at 18.9 iBV, 7.9 inches of horizontal break, and generated a 36.1% chase rate and 37.5% whiff rate. His slider came in at 83.9 MPH, almost a full 10 MPH slower than his cutter and sinker. It moves with 7.1 inches of glove side horizontal break with -3.1 inches of iBV, and while it did not generate much whiff at 25.6%, his 64% chase was elite. He also mixed in a sweeper 3.4% of the time, which generated an above-average 35.5% chase, but he only threw it in the zone 41.4% of the time, and it was his least effective pitch.

Overall, while Jansen’s pitch data looks strong, most of the under-the-hood results were around league average. His 28.6% chase rate was in the 51st percentile, his 25.8% whiff rate was in the 54th percentile, his 8.1% walk rate was in the 46th percentile, and his 8.9% barrel rate was in the 41st percentile. His 24.4% strikeout rate was in the 63rd percentile, and he does still have elite extension at 7 feet (92nd percentile), which helps his cutter and sinker play up with more perceived velocity.

This has also been the case for Jansen for a few years now. In the four years since leaving the Dodgers, Jansen has pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a 28.4% strikeout rate. If his cutter continues to be as elite as it has been, Jansen should be set up for another successful season in 2026.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors did not project a contract for Jansen, but Spotrac lists his market value at one year and $13.7 million. This is in line with deals signed by Kirby Yates and Aroldis Chapman last offseason.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

Now that Edwin Díaz has chosen another team, the Mets are in the market for more high-leverage relievers. With Devin Williams likely in the closer’s role, the Mets may be a hard sell for Jansen. The Mets could always have Williams pitch in a setup role with Jansen as the closer, but he may prefer to be on a team with less competition for the job.

The post Free Agent Profile: Kenley Jansen, RP appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: OF B/T: L/L

Player Data: Age: 35 (8/23/1990)

2025 Traditional Stats: 588 PA, .233/.333/.403/.735, 122 H, 17 HR, 46 RBI

2025 Advanced Stats: 106 wRC+, 19.4% K%, 12.9% BB%, .263 BABiP, .327 xwOBA, 2.4 fWAR, 2.8 bWAR, -2 DRS (LF), 0 DRS (CF), 7 DRS (RF),  -1 OAA (LF), 3 OAA (CF), -2 OAA (RF)

RUNDOWN

In a free agent class with names like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, it is easy to overlook Mike Yastrzemski. He is not on the same level as those players and is quite a few years older than them as he enters his age 35 season, but he has been a very consistent player throughout his career. He has mostly hovered around 2.5 bWAR and 2 fWAR, an OPS+ around 110 and a wRC+ around 105. He has a career slash line of .238/.324/.447/.772, and since 2020, he has slashed .227/.316/.425/.741 with 92 HRs, 274 RBIs, 21 stolen bases and a 105 wRC+ across 680 games.

None of these stats jump off the page. They are all quite average. His defense largely grades out as average too. In terms of fielding run value, he was in the 54th percentile in 2021, 36th percentile in 2022, 63rd percentile in 2023, 42nd percentile in 2024 and 69th percentile in 2025. That roughly averages out to the 52nd percentile across his last five seasons.

So, what does he do well? For starters, he has plus plate discipline and contact skills. Last year he rated in the 86th percentile in chase rate (22.0%), 81st percentile in whiff rate (18.9%) and 68th percentile in zone contact rate (85.9%). Last year, he was also 90th percentile in walk rate (12.3%) and 89th percentile in pull fly ball rate (20.5%).

Across his power metrics, he mostly rates average to above average. Yastrzemski was in the 51st percentile in hard-hit rate (45.5%), 43rd percentile in barrel rate (7.8%), 47th percentile in average exit velocity (89.5 MPH), 30th percentile in 90th percentile exit velocity (103.7 MPH) and 19th percentile in max exit velocity (109.3 MPH).

Based on his metrics, he should be better than his numbers suggest. In terms of power, Baseball Savant ranks only Busch Stadium as suppressing his power more than Oracle Park. For instance, if he played his home games at Citizens Bank Park, Yastrzemski’s expected home run total doubles from 10 to 20 in 2025 and jumps from 96 to 141 in career homers. This doesn’t necessarily show up in his career home/road splits, though, as he has a .773 OPS at home and a .770 OPS on the road. With his contact profile and plate discipline, you would expect his batting average and on-base percentage to be higher. If he was a younger player, you would likely project him to take a step forward, but at 35 with 841 games in the majors, the version of Yastrzemski we have seen is very likely the version you will get.

CONTRACT

MLB Trade Rumors did not predict a contact for Yastrzemski, but Spotrac lists his market value at one year and $11.3 million. At his age, it is probably not likely he will sign more than a one-to-two-year deal.

RECOMMENDATION: STAY AWAY

The Mets do likely need to sign another outfielder, but Yastrzemski does not really check any of the boxes they need. He is not a plus defender in center field, even if he is capable of playing there. He is not a right-handed bat that crushes left-handed pitching. He is not a power bat to stick in a corner outfield spot. He also isn’t a fast runner or strong enough defensively to replace Tyrone Taylor as the fourth outfielder. As the Mets search for outfielders, Yastrzemski is likely not the man they should be looking at.

The post Free Agent Profile: Mike Yastrzemski, OF appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: 3B/1B/OF B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 30 (3/2/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 321 PA, .318/.352/.470/.822, 102 H, 10 HR, 44 RBI
2025 Advanced Stats: 125 wRC+, 14.4% K%, 5% BB%, .348 BABIP, .296 xwOBA, 1.1 fWAR, 0.1 bWAR, -4 DRS (3B), 0 DRS (1B), -3 OAA (LF), -3 OAA (3B), 0 OAA (1B), -3 OAA (LF)

RUNDOWN

It is easy to look at the jump in Miguel Andujar‘s 2025 offense and think this was just a factor of playing in two very friendly home ballparks (Sutter Health Park with the Athletics and Great American Ballpark with the Reds). But outside of those two stadiums in 2025, Andujar slashed .310/.357/.437, which was good for a 122 wRC+. This came from a number of changes he made under the hood in 2025.

Andujar became more aggressive in the zone in 2025. His Z-Swing jumped from 66.2% in 2024 to 72.3% in 2025. This allowed him to do more damage when he made contact with the ball. While his 4.8% barrel rate and 32.7% launch angle sweet spot were still well below average, they both were significant jumps over 2024 where he was at 2.3% and 26.4%, respectively. This helped him increase his slugging percentage from .377 to .470.

Andujar’s elite bat to ball and contact skills have remained intact as well. He posted a 17.8% whiff rate, 14.4% K%, and 89.5% zone contact rate. However, he does still chase too much at 35.8% with a low walk rate at 4.7%.

His profile is very interesting. He most likely will continue to run a high batting average and has shown good but not great high-end power. However, across a full season, his slugging percentage likely will not be as high as it was in 2025 when he played 94 games.

Injuries also continue to be an issue for Andujar. In 2025, he missed time on the injured list in June with an oblique injury. A quad injury also sidelined him in August. Andujar has not played more than 94 games since his rookie season in 2018. A move full-time to first base may be necessary to preserve his durability. But when healthy, you can expect him to be a contact-heavy, above-average hitter.

CONTRACT

MLB Trade Rumors did not project a contract amount for Andujar, but Spotrac lists his market value at two years and $12.2 million. This is his first time entering free agency.

RECOMMENDATION: WORTH CHECKING IN

The Mets currently do not have a definitive first baseman, and while they have stated that Pete Alonso is a priority, it is always beneficial to have backup plans. Andujar could be a stop-gap solution to players in the Mets’ farm system like Ryan Clifford and Jacob Reimer, who could be ready to debut at some point in 2026.

Having played 1B, 3B and both corner outfield spots over the last few seasons, he does provide some positional versatility while also having the ability to be a strong bat off the bench if he is not getting full time offers. He is also a career .297/.332/.475 hitter against left-handed pitchers, which is good for a 121 wRC+. Improving against southpaws has continued to be a need for the Mets.

The fit may not be perfect between the Mets and Andujar, but it is definitely worth checking in to see how they may be able to fit into each other’s overall plans.

The post Free Agent Profile: Miguel Andujar, UTL appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 32 (08/21/1993)
2025 Traditional Stats: 64 G, 17 GF, 21 HLD, 8 SV, 4 BS, 64.2 IP, 4-4, 3.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 72 SO, 20 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 113 ERA+, 27.5% SO%, 7.6% BB%, 2.96 xERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, -0.8 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR

RUNDOWN

After his remarkable 2024 campaign where he emerged as one of baseball’s most dominant closers, Weaver found himself in more of a setup role after the Yankees traded for closer Devin Williams. The Yankees expected Williams and Weaver to be a dynamic one-two punch at the back of their bullpen, but by the end of the season, both players had earned and lost the closer job.

Weaver’s season started strong. Through the end of May, he posted a 1.05 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, and 98.6% LOB%. This helped him accumulate eight saves, six holds and only one blown save. Then, on June 1, he strained his hamstring. The rest of the year, he posted a 5.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.42 FIP and 63.5% LOB%. He still accumulated 15 holds with only three blown saves in those 39 innings pitched.

Before the injury, Weaver’s fastball sat at 94.4 mph with 19.3 inches of IVB and 7.0 inches of HB. His changeup, at 87.1 mph, featured 14.1 inches of HB and -7.1 VAA, creating strong separation. Post-injury, the fastball velocity ticked up to 95.5 mph. However, its IVB dropped to 18.8 inches and HB fell to 6.7 inches. His zone rate on the fastball dropped from 58% to 53.4%. His whiff rate fell from 26.3% to 23.1%. His changeup lost bite at 88.6 mph with less effective -6.9 VAA and a worse spin profile. His zone rate dropped from 41.7% to 37.6%. His cutter effectiveness did improve in the second half, though, and he began leaning on it more down the stretch. It hovered between 11-12% usage compared to 8.7% before the injury. He also pretty much completely dropped his slider after his injury. This drop in command and effectiveness overall led to a surge in home runs. His HR/9 jumped from 0.70 to 1.85.

Weaver may have been rushed back from injury before he was ready, which could explain his struggles in the second half. That said, there’s still plenty to like in Weaver’s profile. His first-half performance demonstrated legitimate closer ability. Many of his underlying skills were present, even when he was compromised. With a full healthy offseason to rebuild lower-body strength and restore his mechanics, the first-half version of Weaver isn’t out of reach.

CONTRACT

MLB Trade Rumors predicts a two-year deal totaling $18 million for Weaver. As a former starter before joining the Yankees, Weaver lacks the track record of more established relievers, but his progress over the last two years should make teams optimistic that he can be a strong back-end arm for the next few years.

RECOMMENDATION: CHECK IN WITH

For the Mets, Weaver represents a buy-low opportunity as a right-handed setup complement to AJ Minter. His first-half performance demonstrated closer-quality stuff. Pairing him with Minter in the seventh and eighth innings creates a formidable late-inning setup duo.

Weaver also would provide insurance if Edwin Díaz were to sign elsewhere. The Mets shouldn’t count on him as their primary closer given second-half struggles. However, his 2024 track record shows he can handle ninth-inning duties if needed. A healthy offseason to address the hamstring could unlock the dominant version of Luke Weaver.

The post Free Agent Profile: Luke Weaver, RP appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 31 (09/21/1994)

2025 Traditional Stats: 67 G, 29 GF, 15 HLD, 18 SV, 4 BS, 62 IP, 4-6, 4.79 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 90 SO, 25 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 85 ERA+, 34.7% SO%, 9.7% BB%, 3.07 xERA, 2.68 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, -0.3 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR

Rundown

Milwaukee

A two-time All-Star closer and two-time Hoffman Reliever of The Year, Devin Williams was drafted by the Brewers in 2013 with the No. 54 overall pick. Coming out of high school, Williams was originally drafted as a starting pitcher. He found moderate success over the course of his first four professional years as a hybrid starter and reliever in the minors. However, as many pitchers do, Williams underwent Tommy John Surgery and missed the 2017 season while recovering. Only after one last failed effort to become a starter in 2018 (14 GS, 34 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.824 WHIP) did Williams finally transition to the bullpen full-time in 2019.

Williams made his MLB debut on August 7, 2019 against the Pirates and went on to pitch twelve more innings in 2019 with an ERA just under four. For the remainder of his Brewers career from 2020-2024, Williams dominated the league: 222 innings, 1.70 ERA, 111 H, 361 SO, 0.977 WHIP, 4.5 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 14.6 SO/9

He appeared in 228 games, finished 96 of them, and saved 68. Williams racked up a 7.6 fWAR over those five years, second among all relievers only to Emmanuel Clase’s 8.5 fWAR. Through the first two-and-a-half of those years, he was the setup man to another top reliever in Josh Hader, piling up 58 holds in that span. Once Hader was dealt at the deadline in 2022, Williams became the full-time closer for the remainder of his time in Milwaukee.

After missing much of the first four months of the season in 2024 due to a stress fracture in his back, Williams came back for the stretch run and accumulated a 1.4 bWAR over 21 2/3 innings. Williams’ excellence during the stretch run helped the Brewers secure the National League Central Division to earn a Wild Card Series matchup with the sixth-seeded New York Mets.

Enter: Pete Alonso. 

As baseball fans know, with radio play-by-play announcer Howie Rose’s call heard ‘round the world, Pete sent Williams and the Brew Crew packing with an exhilarating ninth inning four-run comeback in a winner-take-all game three. One can only speculate the toll that performance took on Williams, who found himself traded to the Yankees as he entered his final year of club control. 

The Bronx

2025 was the first time Williams truly struggled since arriving to the bigs. He posted a career-worst ERA, his worst K/9 and H/9 rates since his rookie season, and his worst WHIP since 2021. He lost the closer role for the first time in his career on April 27, following an early stretch where he blew three games in ten appearances. From there, he rode a roller coaster into October, earning his job back in June, only to lose it again in early August. 

Williams finished 2025 in a setup role, and while he pitched fine in the postseason (4 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts), it was ultimately not the year a player wants to have in their free agency year.

While 2025 was a far cry from Williams’ usual dominance, teams can do a lot worse than a 1.12 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 rate. 

But let’s take a look under the hood and compare some key metrics from Baseball Savant from 2025 to his numbers from 2022 and 2023, his most successful and healthy seasons:

Naturally, there was a regression from his dominance, but the drop is not as pronounced as one would expect given his glaring ERA. It can also be surmised that his most glaring issue was his barrel rate increasing so significantly, which of course had a domino effect on other metrics. 

Contract

Moving forward, it’s reasonable to project Williams as a bounce back candidate in 2026. Even if his metrics were to remain the same, the difference between his ERA and xERA suggests he could still be capabale of shutting the door late in games. Additionally, Williams’ trademark ‘Airbender’ changeup remains one of baseball’s most unhittable pitches when he’s on.

Williams’ contract projections have a large variance, though MLB Trade Rumors believes he’ll land a four-year contract worth $65 million ($16.25M AAV).

There’s almost always uncertainty around relievers, especially ones coming off a down year with elite peripherals. Given Williams’ long history of dominance, a one year prove-it deal could also make sense for him in 2026. A player of his pedigree following a triumphant season would increase his value substantially on the market, but he could also land a multi-year deal given his track record.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

The Mets brass attempted to assemble a super pen at the deadline in 2025. While that endeavor didn’t work out, it doesn’t mean the philosophy was without merit. Williams could be a fit in Queens with or without Edwin Díaz returning. However, given Williams’ performance in 2025, returning both relievers and slotting Williams into a setup role would be the most ideal route for him to become a Met. This way, Williams could handle closing duties if Díaz is unavailable and could recoup his value in a lower-leverage role. Williams’ movement-heavy approach could pair well with Díaz’s velocity-driven dominance. The two could very well form the most formidable later-innings combination in baseball.

The post Free Agent Profile: Devin Williams, RP appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: RHP B/T: R/R

Player Data: Age: 30 (09/27/1995)

2025 Traditional Stats: 68 G (1 start), 69 2/3 IP, 2.07 ERA, 0.962 WHIP, 4-2, 75 K, 22 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 187 ERA+, 27 K%, 8% BB%, 2.77 xERA, 2.93 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 1.3 fWAR, 1.4 bWAR

Rundown

Brad Keller debuted as a 22-year-old with the Royals after being poached from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft and had a few solid seasons as a starting pitcher to begin his career. However, he endured a couple of rocky seasons in 2021 and 2022 before missing most of 2023 due to a shoulder injury. He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after that season and signed a minor league contract with the White Sox but was designated for assignment early in the season. He then struggled in a limited sample size after signing with the Red Sox.

Shortly before spring training in 2025, Keller inked a minor league deal with the Cubs and did enough to crack the Opening Day roster as a reliever. In his first full season pitching out of the bullpen, Keller flourished, entering Craig Counsell‘s circle of trust and serving as the primary setup man for closer Daniel Palencia. Overall, Keller appeared in 68 games and posted a 2.07 ERA in 69 2/3 innings, and his strikeout rate increased to a career-high 27.2%. Additionally, Keller’s hard-hit rate dropped to a career-low 30.6% and his opponents’ average exit velocity of 86.5 mph was also the lowest mark of his career. Keller allowed just four home runs, and his ground-ball rate increased to 55.5%, the highest he’s had over a full season. From 2021 to 2024, Keller’s opponents owned an .804 OPS, but in 2025, he limited them to a weak .512 mark.

Keller was particularly dominant over the final two months of the season, allowing just one earned run and striking out 30 batters over 22 2/3 innings. When Palencia got hurt in September, Keller inherited the closer’s role and kept it in the postseason, during which he converted both of his save opportunities while allowing one earned run and striking out five in 5 2/3 innings. Keller’s 2.77 xERA, 2.93 FIP, and 3.32 xFIP show that his season wasn’t much of a fluke either.

Keller was never a fireballer during his days as a starter, but his average fastball velocity skyrocketed from 93.8 mph to 97.2 mph in 2025. His four-seamer’s run value increased from negative-4 to plus-9, and opponents hit just .208 with a .292 SLG against it. Keller effectively mixed in his sinker as well, which didn’t surrender a single extra-base hit and registered a .179 xSLG as well as a plus-4 run value. Keller’s sinker had a run value per 100 pitches of 2.9, which is one of the highest marks in baseball. While Keller’s slider was hit hard, he increased the usage of his sweeper, against which opponents went just 3-for-41. Keller’s sweeper recorded a 46.4% whiff rate in addition to a .086 xBA and .154 xSLG. Keller’s change-up was also rather effective, posting a 39.7% whiff rate and a .237 xSLG.

Contract

Keller should expect a healthy raise from the $1.5 million he made in 2025. He likely will receive a multi-year deal to serve as a high-leverage reliever. Drew Pomeranz was able to sign a four-year, $34 million contract after the 2019 season despite having a much smaller sample size of success as a reliever. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Keller will ink a three-year deal worth $36 million.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

Whether or not the Mets re-sign Edwin Díaz, it wouldn’t hurt to bring in an arm like Keller to shore up the back end of the bullpen. The team struggled mightily to build a bridge to Díaz in 2025, and Keller proved he can be very effective as a reliever. Even if Keller regresses somewhat, he’d still be a lot better than what the Mets had this year. He also didn’t waver in the playoffs, which is important for a team trying to return to October.

The post Free Agent Profile: Brad Keller, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized.

Position: SP/RP B/T: R/R

Age: 28 (8/4/1997)

2025 Traditional Stats: 22 G, 89.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 95 SO, 29 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 91 ERA+, 25.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.42 xERA, 4.23 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 1.1 fWAR/0.6 bWAR

Rundown

Michael Soroka had an up-and-down 2025. He signed with the Nationals on a one-year, $9 million deal with the hopes that another year removed from his injuries would help him regain the success he had early on in his career. Soroka made his debut for the Atlanta Braves in 2018 before earning an All-Star nod in 2019 and also finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. That season, he posted 6 bWAR and an ERA+ of 171. Soroka’s 2019 was so good, and achieved at such a young age, that he became one of four pitchers in the divisional-era to have a 6-bWAR campaign in their age 21 season or younger alongside Vida Blue, Dwight Gooden and Mark Fidrych. Following that tremendous season, Soroka’s promising career was derailed by multiple Achilles tears, the first of which occurred against the Mets during the 2020 season. 

After a couple of years of rehabbing, Soroka was traded to the Chicago White Sox in November 2023 in a multi-player deal that sent Aaron Bummer, among others, to Atlanta. In 2024, Soroka found a new role and became a long man for the White Sox. He threw 79 innings and went from a ground-ball pitcher to a guy who struck out more than a batter per inning (9.5 K/9, up from 7.3 in 2019).

While his 2024 was a mixed bag, Soroka made it through the season healthy and was seen as a project an analytics-heavy organization would take a flyer on. He signed with the Nationals, likely because they guaranteed him a rotation spot, and pitched once again to mixed results. However, his underlying metrics were as good, if not better, than they were in 2019. Finishing with a 3.42 xERA, Soroka made it through the 2025 season mostly healthy and retained the velocity on his fastball (93.5 average mph in 2025 and 93.6 in 2025) while also keeping elite spin on his out pitch, which is his slurve (2918 RPM- 2500 is league average).

When projecting Soroka’s free agency, he has a number of factors that should help his candidacy. The first is his age: he’s entering his age-28 season. Soroka is the second-youngest free agent pitcher with MLB experience. Only Dustin May is younger. The second is that Soroka just completed two relatively healthy seasons in a row and retained his spin and velocity metrics in September despite throwing more innings than he did in 2024.

The third factor for Soroka is that he has really strong underlying metrics on his secondary pitches that could improve his results in 2026 and beyond. In 2025, his slurve had a .220 opponent xSLG and his changeup had a .264 opponent xSLG. In contrast, his fastball had a .470 xSLG. Perhaps with higher usage of his changeup (only 10% in 2025) and slurve (34.8%), Soroka can have better results moving forward.

Contract

A contract prediction for Soroka is complicated. He is still young but hasn’t thrown 100 innings since 2019. Building up to be a starter was not the best approach for him in 2025, but it is possible a team will look at his underlying metrics and believe he can produce results closer to them than his surface results in 2025. Therefore, I’d be willing to give a multi-year contract at around $8 million per year. Spotrac estimates that Soroka’s market value is $3.6 million; however, given his strong advanced stats and age, I would bet Soroka makes more than that.

Recommendation: Try to Sign

I would be highly interested in signing Soroka. The Mets are likely looking for top-end starting pitchers and depth pieces. Soroka fits into the latter category. Having a strong swing-man who can get high-leverage outs as well as make a spot start here and there is more valuable than ever in order to get through the 162-game marathon. Soroka’s combination of an above-average ground-ball rate (61st percentile) as well as his improved walk rate (12.7 % in 2024 and 7.7 % in 2025), combined with elite swing-and-miss stuff (38.4% put-away rate and the fifth-lowest xBA against his slurve), makes him a valuable depth piece that could help any contending team.

The post Free Agent Profile: Michael Soroka, SP/RP appeared first on Metsmerized.