From an expected statistical standpoint, the Mets are an outlier. They rank tenth in home runs, sixth in walks, 11th in fewest strikeouts, sixth in base-running, third in hard hit rate, third in barrel rate, third in average exit velocity, sixth in xBA, and fourth in xSLG. In other words, the teams that are excellent in the same advanced metrics as the Mets- exit velocity, barrels, hard hit percentage, walks- are top-tier offenses. Yet, the Mets rank 15th in runs scored. 

So, what gives?

Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images

Issues with RISP

The Mets’ problem hasn’t been getting runners on base- it’s been driving them in. As a team, the Mets have a .231 batting average with runners in scoring position, which is tied for third-worst in MLB with the Rockies. Their WRC+ drops from 111 with the bases empty (third in MLB) to 99 with RISP (17th in MLB). Their .255 BABIP with RISP (compared to .286 with bases empty) is the lowest in MLB. Interestingly, their approach with runners in scoring position isn’t necessarily more aggressive. They appear to be more passive: 11.5% walk rate with RISP vs. 8.4% with bases empty and 21.9% K rate with the bases empty vs. 20.1% K rate with RISP. 

In terms of contact quality, there’s not a drastic drop-off either: Soft contact improves slightly with RISP (15.2% vs. 16.6%). Their pull rate increases from 37.2% (lowest in MLB with bases empty) to 40.3% with RISP. Their ground ball rate is also slightly higher with RISP (44.1% compared to 41.8%). 

None of these differences alone would suggest a steep drop-off in production. Collectively, however, they have created a perfect storm for underperformance. While the issue is team-wide, Ronny Mauricio, for example, has a 170 WRC+ with the bases empty and a -9 WRC+ with RISP (yes, that’s a real stat), much of the spotlight has fallen on Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.

With the bases empty, Juan Soto has been as good as ever: 192 WRC+, 20 HR, (.306/ .424/ .614) 1.038 OPS with a 16.7% walk rate and a 19.3 K rate. His batted-ball profile reinforces this production. Soto has a 9.9 soft contact rate, which is elite, and a 42.1 % ground ball rate. However, Soto has just five home runs with a 77 WRC+ with RISP and an impossible .181 BABIP. What is concerning is that despite Soto’s elite discipline 18.1% walk rate, 19.7% K rate with RISP), Soto is making worse contact (19.2 soft contact percentage and a 50.6% ground ball rate. So while Soto’s approach doesn’t change, the increased ground balls and weaker contact explain, on some level, the delta between Soto’s production with the bases empty and his lack of production with runners in scoring position. 

Lindor’s struggles follow a slightly different pattern. Francisco has a 123 WRC+ with 16 of his 21 home runs when the bases are empty. He has a 75 WRC+ with RISP and has hit only two home runs with RISP. Lindor has a K rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 6.6% with the bases empty. However, with runners in scoring position, he is putting the ball in play more (4.5% walk rate and a 16.4% K rate), but he is not making quality contact. Lindor has a hard hit percentage of 28% with RISP compared to 33% with the bases empty. Not only is he making weaker contact, but Lindor is hitting more ground balls with RISP than with the bases empty (39.1% vs. 44.4%).

Slumps & Injuries

Prior to breaking his toe on hit by pitch on June 4, Francisco Lindor was having another MVP caliber season. Below are his numbers before and after breaking the toe:

Before:
139 WRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 60 games
90.6 exit velocity, 9.5% barrel rate and a 44% hard hit rate.

After:
83 WRC+, 0.7 fWAR in 53 games
88.9 exit velocity, 6.7% barrel rate, 41.1% hard hit rate.

He is striking out more and walking less (21.3%-17.3% and 8.3% to 6.1%). Clearly, Lindor hasn’t been the same player since the toe injury and his lack of production has been a major reason the Mets; offense has struggled to score runs.

Soto Mini Slump:

In the 18 games since the All Star break, Juan Soto has struggled. He is hitting .177 with a .640 OPS good for a 77 WRC+. Unlike Soto’s early struggles this season, there is some batted ball numbers that suggest Soto isn’t hitting into bad luck.

Exit velocity down from 94.4 to 91.9
Barrel rate down from 18% to 14.3%
K rate up from 18.4% to 23.2%
Walk rate down from 18.2% to 14.5%.

Soto is chasing more and making worse contact. Hopefully his home run to break up Gavin Williams‘ no hitter was a sign Soto was breaking out this tough stretch.

Pete Alonso Post April:

Pete Alonso got off to the best start of his career. He posted a 215 WRC+ and a 2.0 fWAR between March 27 and April 30. Both the 215 WRC+ and the 2.0 fWAR were second in MLB behind Aaron Judge. Since May 1 (84 games) here are Alonso’s numbers:

.238/ .306/ .456 (762 ops) 112 WRC+
K rate up from 14.7% to 26.1%
Walk rate down from 16.8% to 7.5%

Alonso has been an above average hitter, but with Lindor in a prolonged slump and more recently Soto struggling, Pete’s underwhelming stretch has been magnified.

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Two Streaks

Finally, I’d like to look at the Mets offense during the seven game winning streak from July 20- July 27 and contrast it with the offense’s issues during this current lull. In the winning streak the offense solid:

i. 34 runs scored
ii. 202. K% (10th lowest), 9.5% walk rate (eight best)
iii. 26 extra-base hits (ninth most)
iv. 113 WRC+ (eighth best)
v. 38% ground ball rate
vi. 39.8% pull rate
vii. .291 BABIP

The batted ball profile:
Average exit velocity 89.6 (12th highest), 11% barrel rate (third best), 10th in hard hit rate.

In the current losing stretch:

i. 35 runs scored but only 23 in the eight loses.
ii. Fewest extra-base hits in MLB(16), second fewest home runs (seven)
iii. K rate: 23.9% (11th highest)
iv. Lowest BABIP in MLB (.253)
v. 69 WRC+ (second lowest in MLB)
vi. 43.2% ground ball rate
vii. 34.8% pull rate

The batted ball profile during the losing streak:
89.6 exit velocity (20th), 9.0% barrel rate (11th), 20th in hard hit rate.

When looking at the two streaks, the difference in offense is there, but not enough to explain the stark difference in results. When revisiting the winning streak, the Mets won three one-run games, including the 2-1 victory over the Giants, where Jung Hoo-Lee almost hit a walk-off home run off Edwin Dìaz. During the current tough stretch, the Mets have lost four one-run games, two of which were extra-inning losses. So while the extreme swings of winning seven in a row, and then losing eight of night, leaves a bad taste in your mouth, the team is 8-10 since the break which is bad but not catastrophic.

Overall Thoughts

The Mets’ offensive profile mirrors that of the elite lineups like the Dodgers, Cubs and Yankees. The difference has been situational hitting. But with some better batted ball fortune and more early count aggression, those RIPS numbers will rise to the level of the team’s production with the bases empty. Now is not the time for firing hitting coaches or making drastic changes, there is simply too much talent on the roster and the tide is due to turn- hopefully beginning in Milwaukee on Friday night.

The post Analyzing the Mets’ Offensive Woes appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets offense started working early. In the first inning, Brett Baty was responsible for the first run of the game with an RBI single. Consequently, Nimmo drove in Harrison Bader with an RBI double in the following inning.

The production did not end there. After a Pete Alonso single got things started in the third inning, Francisco Álvarez and Jeff McNeil doubled in succession as each drove in a run that provided the Mets with a 5-0 lead.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Manager Carlos Mendoza mentioned McNeil’s improved performance after the game.

“He’s a good hitter,” Mendoza said. “Now we’re seeing that guy.”

With a five-run lead, Stewart added some insurance with a two-run long ball to right center field. Stewart’s home run came off the bat at 102.4 mph and travelled 409 feet.

Stewart commented on the overall approach and mindset from the Mets’ offense after the game.

“They had our number last year, and a lot of guys in this clubhouse remember that,” Stewart said.

Even in the one game that the Mets lost this series, the offense displayed a lot of fight, almost mounting an impressive comeback from six runs down in the eighth inning in what was ultimately a 6-5 defeat. Contrary to the lethargic performances at the beginning of the season, their recent play has been very encouraging.

McNeil continued his big day in the seventh inning when he lined a two-run single into right field. Nimmo contributed once again as well when he drove in a run on a triple in the eighth.

Although the floodgates were beyond open at that point, the pile became even larger when former Mets utility player Luis Guillorme entered the game as the pitcher for the Braves. The Mets did not show their former teammate any mercy, as Tyrone Taylor launched a grand slam to extend the lead to 12 runs. Taylor’s first home run as a member of the Mets traveled 381 feet with an exit velocity of 99.4 mph.

While the Mets did not need 16 runs to win, their offense could use the confidence boost associated with amassing runs against a division rival. For players like McNeil and Nimmo, it was beneficial for them to see some hits added to their ledger while producing runs for their team. Even though Francisco Lindor is still struggling at the onset of the season, it is only a matter of time before he follows suit with the production of his other teammates.

The post Mets Offense Fuels Series Victory Over Braves appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

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The first two games of the Mets’ series in Milwaukee have gone about as poorly as possible. While it’s important not to overreact to the fifth and sixth games of the season, being outscored 19-0 in two games American Family Field is almost unthinkable for a team with championship aspirations.

The #Mets have not scored a run and allowed 9+ runs in back-to-back games for the first time in franchise history.@Metsmerized

— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) April 5, 2023

While the pitching has had its own challenges, the Mets’ offense has been completely non-existent in this series. In fact, the Mets have scored only one run, a ninth-inning Pete Alonso home run off of A.J. Puk, in their three losses this season.

As a team, the Mets have an OPS of just .608 through six games, 27th in MLB. They have hit only three home runs (one each by Alonso, Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham), which is as much as the Brewers hit in consecutive at-bats off of Max Scherzer in Tuesday’s drubbing.

The Mets enter today with the lowest slugging percentage in Major League Baseball at .295.

Only the Blue Jays and Nationals have fewer home runs than the Mets 3.

— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) April 5, 2023

Individually, while regulars like Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Omar Narváez have gotten off to decent starts, the rest of the lineup has been ice cold. Combined, Alonso, Canha, Francisco Lindor, Eduardo Escobar, and Daniel Vogelbach are just 13-90 at the plate thus far.

Things will only get more challenging today, as the Mets will face Corbin Burnes this afternoon trying to not only avoid a sweep, but avoid being completely blanked in the series.

As bad as the offense has been, it’s unlikely the team will make any drastic moves after only six games. Still, if the struggles continue through the Mets’ first home series of the season against the Marlins, you have to wonder when Billy Eppler will begin to feel the heat.  The Mets have three highly-regarded hitting prospects with MLB experience waiting in Triple-A in Francisco Álvarez, Mark Vientos, and Brett Baty (although Baty may not be healthy enough at the moment for a call-up), and it’s tough to imagine their production being any worse than what we have seen thus far from the Mets’ veterans.

All it takes is one or two solid offensive outputs to get the momentum going in the right direction, and the lineup is talented enough to break out of its collective slump. However, many were concerned that the Mets didn’t do enough in the offseason to bolster the lineup, and the results on the field thus far have seemed to back that up.

The post Mets’ Offense Off to Frustrating Start appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Everything is coming up roses for New York’s lineup despite depressed offensive production league-wide. It appears this Mets offense is unfazed by the dead ball. MLB admitted to variations of their baseball in 2021, and buzz is growing; the ball may be altered once again to begin 2022. However, the bats from Queens have exploded out of the gate, orchestrating a high-scoring assault sans a favorable alteration to the sphere for which the game is named.

Historically Bad Start

Alex Fast of ESPN put the league-wide historically bad start into context. On April 22, major league batters collectively stood on a .231 batting average. The lowest BA in the history of baseball, dating back to 1871. Fifty-six players were hitting below .200 at that time.

It isn’t just that batting averages are in the toilet. Power is lacking, too. Ballpark Pal tracks ball flight and carry distance, factoring temperature, wind, humidity, launch angle, speed, spray angle, and specific stadium factors. Of the 2000+ batted balls traveling over 300 feet in 2022, significantly fewer actual home runs were hit than the metrics suggest should be.

Credit: Ballpark Pal

Perhaps the shining example of the dulled-down comes from Baseball Reference’s data scientist Jeremy Frank, noting a nondescript April series between the Cardinals and Reds. Those three games were void of even a single home run. It was just the second time in Great American Ballpark history that a series of three or more games featured zero round-trippers.

Mets Ahead Of Curve

Meanwhile, in Flushing, the New York Mets offense appears ahead of the curve. Built around ideal launch angles and barrels which rely on the baseball carrying off the bat, other organizations are struggling to adapt to Manfred’s mushball. However, this Mets team creates runs by being aggressive on the bases and selective at the plate. They make contact in the zone and exercise patience when necessary. It is no wonder why they are the first team to have 12 wins.

*** statistical data as of 4/24/2022 credit Fangraphs ***

Buck Showalter‘s lineup ranks second in MLB with 75 runs scored and the second-best run differential of +28 more runs scored than their opponents. In addition, they are stealing runs at every opportunity. Only three other teams have more than the Mets’ eleven stolen bases on the year. Despite being thrust into a new defensive position, Starling Marte leads the team and the entire National League with four swipes of his own. He is carefully picking his spots to make the SB positively impact the outcome each night.

Stolen bases do not happen without runners reaching base. Sporting a hefty .343 on-base percentage, the team ranks second league-wide in getting on. Francisco Lindor leads the way, reaching base an astonishing 40.8% of plate appearances, good for ninth-best in the NL.

Photo by Chris Simon

Emphasizing power over contact is the trend across the majors, but this team has bucked that trend with success. Zone contact rates are up across the lineup, and the group ranks eighth overall in ZCon% at 85.2 in April. More in-zone contact lends to fewer swings and misses. The Mets excel there, boasting a minuscule 9.6 SwStr%, which ranks third in the league.

Lindor’s ZCon%/SwStrk%/K% slash: 91.8/6.3/14.5

As whiffs vanish, so do the strikeouts. New York has K’d at a 20.0% clip, besting all but two major league teams. Each at bat is a grind for the opposing pitcher. Jeff McNeil heads the group with a 10.6 K%. He is just one of the Mets hitters leveling the playing field in the age of the strikeout. The opposition pitcher’s collective 8.9 K-BB% is the second-worst in MLB. Up and down the order, the plate appearances have substance, and it shows.

Will the commissioner bring back the juicier version of the ball? Only time will tell. For now, the Mets offense remains unfazed by Manfred’s meddling ways. While other cities watch high flyballs to left settle into a glove, this dead ball has life–at least in Queens, it does.

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Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Before the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement expired earlier this month, the New York Mets made numerous splashes in free agency, including the signing of outfielder Starling Marte.

Reaching the free-agent market for just the second time in his career, Marte wasn’t without a team for very long as the Mets landed him on a four-year, $78-million contract. With the 33-year-old signed through the 2025 campaign, this organization is counting on him being able to help lead them beyond their current postseason drought, which stands at five seasons.

For starters, it’s no hidden secret the Mets’ offense faltered significantly throughout the 2021 season, as they failed to effectively provide their pitching staff with enough run support on a daily basis. Though Marte has long passed the age-30 threshold, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down any time soon and best displayed that aspect last season.

Despite splitting time between the Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins, the 6’1″ center fielder enjoyed plenty of success with both franchises, interestingly enough, resulting in one of the top statistical performances of his professional career.

Overall, Marte compiled 526 plate appearances in 120 games between the Athletics and Marlins, where he posted 12 home runs, 55 RBIs, a .310/.383/.458 slashing line, a 134 wRC+ score and a career-best 5.5 fWAR rating.

Just on these merits alone, adding the 2016 National League All-Star to New York’s lineup provides an obvious improvement from multiple different standpoints. But if we dig deeper, we’ll also likely discover that the long-time Pittsburgh Pirate could solve several key offensive issues that plagued this club in 2021.

Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Starting at the top, the Mets’ roster failed to consistently hit for contact as they finished tied for the seventh-lowest AVG (.239) and produced the 12th-lowest BABIP (.291) among all 30 teams in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

Granted, this wasn’t their most glaring offensive issue, however, it was one that largely prevented them from getting on-base at a high rate. As a result, this team earned the eighth-lowest wOBA (.307) and the 12th-lowest OBP (.315) amongst the rest of the majors.

When it comes to Marte, the right-hander has prided himself on serving as a reliable on-base weapon through the majority of his 10 major league seasons, and didn’t encounter any issues proving to be exactly that this past season.

Showcasing his stellar contact-generating ability, the Dominican native registered a .310 AVG and a .372 BABIP – the third-highest of his career – both of which finished in the top five among all qualified hitters in the majors. In turn, his on-base metrics soared through the roof, allowing him to create the best OBP (.383) and wOBA (.364) of his career.

Putting these impressive results into perspective, Marte’s high-contact tendencies have resulted in numerous successful performances when it comes to reaching base consistently, especially over his last three seasons.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

Aside from the 2017 and 2018 campaigns, as shown in the chart above, Marte’s rolling expected wOBA has largely remained far above the major league average line for most of his career. But in particular, he’s rarely ever stumbled into extended on-base slumps since 2019.

While May 2019 wasn’t kind to him, as his rolling xwOBA dropped off considerably, since then, it’s ranged consistently around .370. In 2021, it reached the highest it’s ever climbed before as it rose to a career-high .483.

In all likelihood, Marte will be slotted into either the first or second spot in New York’s lineup, positioning him ahead of the team’s biggest run producers, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Based on his remarkable on-base metrics, particularly from last season, chances are he’ll be able to create plenty of traffic on the bases in front of those two sluggers – something this club didn’t feature enough of previously.

Taking this topic even further, along with reaching base consistently, the former amateur free agent also possesses the skills to serve as an impact base runner.

Since 2013, Marte owns the second-most stolen bases (284) and the fifth-highest BsR – base running runs above average – (44.3) among all other qualified batters in the majors. Additionally, he’s also posted a speed score of at least 7.1 in six of his nine seasons during that same span.

Granted, the veteran righty isn’t the same player that averaged a 29.6 sprint speed in 2015 – which ranked in the 98th percentile in the majors. Having said that, his quickness can still provide a huge upside on the Mets’ roster moving forward, especially considering he boasted an 84th percentile sprint speed (28.4) in 2021.

Expanding on his results from last season, Marte finished with the highest BsR (12.3) and speed score (7.8) along with the most stolen bases (47) in the majors last season.

In comparison, New York recorded the third-lowest BsR (-13.5), were tied for the third-lowest speed score (3.7) and tied for the fifth-fewest stolen bases (54) amongst the rest of the competition.

Yes, that’s correct. Marte nearly swiped as many bags as the Mets did just by himself. But now with him under contract, there’s no question they’re about to become a much quicker squad in future seasons.

Paired with his on-base and base running abilities, the former Athletic also brings a decent amount of power to this offense, as he’s generated at least 12 home runs and a .450 slugging percentage in three of his previous four campaigns. But in the NL East division, there’s a pretty strong chance he could potentially crush close to 20 round-trippers per year.

Heading into next season, assuming it begins on time and without delay, New York’s batting order is slated to feature a fairly talented one-two punch atop of their lineup, with Marte and Brandon Nimmo setting the table for the rest of the group.

While the acquisition of Marte may not completely correct all of the club’s prior offensive concerns, at the very least, he should help transform them into a much more balanced group of hitters next season.

The post Starling Marte Could Be the Key to Unlocking Mets’ Offensive Potential appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last several seasons, locating a reliable third baseman has been a major area of concern for the New York Mets and while they’ve yet to effectively fill that position, this offseason might act as their best opportunity to accomplish that feat.

Along with a star-studded free-agent class of shortstops, this winter’s market also features a handful of high-profile third basemen, both in free agency and on the trade block. While the Mets will surely explore every available option, linking up with an organization like the Oakland Athletics could become a very real possibility in the near future.

Despite possessing one of the lowest payrolls – approximately $100.3 million – in the majors this past season, the Athletics are reportedly expected to turn over their roster during these next couple of months as they attempt to significantly cut costs. In turn, multiple all-star players are slated to become available via trades, including Matt Chapman.

With Chapman just two seasons away from becoming eligible for free agency, paired with his salary increasing through arbitration, it’s clear that the 28-year-old is starting to become too expensive for Oakland, meaning the time has likely come for both sides to part ways.

For a franchise like the Mets, there’s no question they could benefit from acquiring a superstar third baseman, who’s capable of providing extra-base power and elite defense. Based on his 27 home runs, 72 RBIs and career-best +17 OAA rating, which placed him in the 99th percentile, in 2021, he’d instantly transform the club’s hot corner into a reliable position.

On the other hand, since top prospects like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos would probably be included in a package sent to the Athletics, there could be a high level of risk involved regarding any trade discussions around Chapman. Though he’s viewed as one of the top players at his position, his underlying results may make this potential move even risker.

Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY

Despite enjoying an impressive performance in the slugging department this past season, Chapman continued to separate himself from the quality all-around hitter he was previously in his career. Unlike from 2018-2019, the right-hander has acted as just a one-dimensional contributor since then, earning him a career-worst 101 wRC+ score through 622 plate appearances in 2021.

Reaching new levels of concern during his latest performance, the 2019 American League All-Star’s home run totals were largely overshadowed by his inability to generate a sizeable amount of contact – leading to an alarming number of swings and misses.

After displaying flashes of these struggles throughout the shortened 2020 campaign, resulting in a 35.5% strikeout rate and a 36.2% whiff rate, Chapman remained on this troubling path and expanded on his bat-to-ball woes in the following season. As a result, he ended up posting the second-highest strikeout rate (32.5%) among all qualified third basemen, according to FanGraphs.com.

In addition, the former first-round selection also recorded a miserable 32.7% whiff rate, which ranked in the eighth percentile of the entire major leagues.

Even though Chapman isn’t prone to chasing outside the strike zone, as he produced a 22.9% chase rate in 2021, the majority of his swings and misses have been located within the zone as of late. As a result, the right-handed slugger witnessed his in-zone whiff rate climb to 27.6 percent this past season – an increase of 8.6 percent from ’19.

Unless the California State standout begins making considerably more contact inside the zone, especially against fastballs, chances are this area will continue to serve as a major weakness in future seasons. If that indeed proves to be true, then his strikeout totals are only likely to increase moving forward, potentially causing him to become an even larger liability as he inches closer to age-30.

Thanks to these swing-and-miss woes, similar to his plate discipline results, Chapman’s contact metrics also took a dramatic nosedive during his fifth campaign in the majors. While that’s never been considered a critical aspect of his craft, it’s something that was directly impacted by his inability to put balls in play consistently.

Proving to be a significant liability in this category, the former top prospect generated career-worsts in AVG (.210), xAVG (.207) and also finished with the second-lowest BABIP (.272) – created a .270 BABIP in ’19 – of his major league career.

In comparison, this disappointing showing saw him finish with the third-lowest xAVG, tied for the fourth-lowest AVG and with the 12th-lowest BABIP among all third basemen in the majors who earned at least 300 plate appearances.

Like with most hitters, Chapman has experienced his highs and lows throughout his five seasons in the majors, but what changed in 2021, was how long his hitting slumps lasted.

Prior to this past season, the California native would fall into brief dry spells at the plate, which would see his rolling xAVG drop slightly below the major league average line. But recently, due to his lack of consistent contact, his offensive struggles extended far beyond their usual length and also reached new levels of concern, too.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

To simplify this chart, in short, Chapman largely performed as a below-average hitter when he wasn’t hitting for extra bases in 2021 – that’s extremely problematic for someone who’s considered a middle-of-the-order weapon.

Taking these troubling factors into account, despite his encouraging 12.9% walk recent from a season ago, it remains to be seen if the talented third baseman will be able to sustain his current slugging metrics long-term given how much he struggles to create contact. Furthermore, based on his latest offensive results, adding the righty to New York’s lineup wouldn’t significantly move the needle forward from an overall standpoint.

If Chapman continues down this trajectory, even with his stellar defensive metrics, his unreliable offensive tendencies could potentially complicate any contract negotiations when that time comes around. Is that a situation the Mets want to put themselves in? Probably not.

With this in mind, it’d be wise to operate very cautiously while pursuing any sort of trade surrounding the three-time Gold Glove Award winner. There’s no question he’d be an improvement over the group that maintained the hot corner in Queens this past season, in saying that, acquiring him also might not permanently address this dire issue.

Considering fellow third basemen like Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager could each be attainable for this organization, choosing to circle back on Chapman, later on, might be the best course of action to take this winter.

The post Acquiring Matt Chapman Likely Wouldn’t Come Without Risk Involved appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo from the Mets

For several players across the major leagues, the 2021 season should serve as one to forget, and with just three weeks remaining until the regular season draws to a close, no one will likely be happier to turn the page to 2022 than slugger Dominic Smith.

After being limited to a part-time role through his first three seasons with the New York Mets, Smith took full advantage of the universal designated hitter last season, allowing him to assume a much larger role during the 60-game schedule. With the 26-year-old spending the majority of his time at first base and the DH spot, he was able to focus heavily on the offensive aspect of his game, which took a massive step forward.

Despite the shortened schedule, the left-hander still surpassed his previous career-high in plate appearances, compiling 199 in that regard, and also proved to be one of the club’s top run producers. In turn, his offensive outburst allowed him to enjoy one of the most efficient statistical performances of his entire career.

Catching almost everyone by surprise, Smith improved his ability to hit for contact and power, as he produced 21 doubles, 10 home runs, 42 RBIs, a .299 ISO, a .368 BABIP, a .412 wOBA, a 164 wRC+ score, a 1.8 fWAR rating (career-best) and a slashing line of .316/.377/.616/.993 over 50 games in 2020.

Following this remarkable showing, the Mets were counting on the former first-round pick to build off these stellar results and maintain his role as a reliable middle-of-the-order weapon. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case this season as he’s failed to play up to his fairly high expectations, causing him to endure an extremely disappointing offensive campaign.

Experiencing a major regression from last season’s breakout performance, the versatile slugger has struggled mightily in multiple different areas, resulting in just 16 doubles, 11 home runs, 55 RBIs, a .116 ISO (career-worst), a .295 BABIP, a .324 wOBA, an 85 wRC+ score, a -0.6 fWAR rating and a slashing line of .243/.305/.359/.664 through 469 plate appearances.

Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Digging deeper into Smith’s offensive woes, he hasn’t generated nearly as much hard contact in 2021, as he’s recorded a 39.6% hard-hit rate, a 6.5% barrel rate and an 88.9 mph average exit velocity over 323 batted-ball events. In comparison, the California native created career-highs involving his hard-hit rate (46.7%), barrel rate (13.3%) and average exit velocity (89.8 mph) through 135 batted-ball events in 2020.

Paired with his disappointing performance at the plate, the former top prospect has also failed to perform effectively with his glove in the outfield, particularly during the second half of the season.

Since Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association couldn’t agree to a deal prior to Opening Day, the universal DH didn’t return for a second straight campaign, which has forced Smith to primarily be positioned in left field this season. While expectations were set fairly low out of the gate, his hard work throughout spring training ultimately helped him perform respectably early on.

Finding a way to thrive defensively through the first two months of the schedule, the Junipero Serra HS standout made a surprisingly positive impact in the outfield and reached his peak in May, where he finished tied for the highest OAA (+1) among all qualified Mets outfielders, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Though his defensive showing through April and May was very encouraging, sadly, Smith couldn’t sustain his early success and has since fallen down a miserable path, causing him to become a significant defensive liability. As a result, he’s produced a -7 OAA since the start of June – not something most experts were expecting following his promising start.

Based on this defensive regression, the Mets’ left fielder’s overall metrics have understandably taken a major hit and have fallen far below league average. In turn, the once-reliable offensive contributor has transformed into one of the worst defending outfielders in the majors, positioning him near the bottom of the leaderboard in several different categories.

Proving left field isn’t a viable option long-term, Smith has produced the sixth-worst UZR/150 (-6.7), is tied for the seventh-fewest DRS (-4), tied for the eighth-worst UZR (-3.7) and has created the 10th-worst RngR (-3.2) among all qualified outfielders, according to FanGraphs.com.

Additionally, he’s also currently tied for the worst OAA (-9) among those same qualifications.

What’s been the main cause for this lack of success? Well, Smith has never been one of the quickest runners on New York’s roster, and despite his best efforts, that’s exactly what’s gotten exposed throughout this season.

Unable to rely on speed, the offensive-first outfielder has endured plenty of issues when he’s needed to cover plenty of ground, especially while ranging back towards the outfield wall. Adding to his defensive woes, he’s also struggled at taking direct routes to fly balls, making his job as an outfielder even more challenging.

Putting these traits into perspective, Smith is currently tied for the eighth-worst burst (-0.4 feet), tied for the 10th-worst jump (-0.9 feet) and is tied for the 13th-worst route (-0.3 feet) among all qualified outfielders in the majors this season – all three of these components are calculated against the major league average.

With Smith performing as a negative offensive and defensive player, manager Luis Rojas and his staff had no other choice but to start limiting the left-hander’s playing time, which has primarily seen him serve as a pinch hitter in September. Considering teammate Jeff McNeil has been forced into the outfield with Javier Baez occupying duties at second base, playing time in left field could be hard to come by the rest of the way.

Barring some sort of last-minute revival, the “Sloth Bear” will likely remain in his bench role through the rest of the season, and assuming the universal DH returns in 2022, he probably won’t spend much time, if any at all, in the outfield moving forward. In addition, he’ll also likely split time at first base with Pete Alonso, who’ll likely remain the everyday first baseman next season.

Given the offensive and defensive success he enjoyed in 2020, reducing Smith’s opportunities in left field could provide him with a quality chance to recapture at least some of the momentum he created during the shortened season.

For the Mets’ sake, taking this route might be the only hope they have at regaining their power-slugging threat from the left side of the plate next season.

The post Dominic Smith Can Soon Put to Rest His Miserable 2021 Season appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Set to become a free agent next off-season, outfielder Michael Conforto entered this season with huge aspirations and was aiming to build off his very successful performance during the 60-game schedule, unfortunately, this upcoming winter may not run as smoothly as originally planned.

Coming off one of the most productive offensive showings of his career, where he posted nine home runs, 31 RBIs, a .412 BABIP, a 157 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .322/.412/.515/.927 over 54 games in 2020, the New York Mets were expecting Conforto to serve as a key run producer once again in 2021. But sadly, that hasn’t been the case for the 28-year-old during his seventh season in the majors.

Unlike last season, the 6’1″ outfielder hasn’t performed up to his high expectations this time around, leading to some very disappointing offensive results for someone who had seemingly established himself as a reliable hitter over the last few years. Changing that narrative about himself, and not in a positive way, the left-hander has struggled to hit for contact and power, which were two areas he excelled at previously.

Most shockingly, Conforto has experienced a major power outage at the plate, as he’s by far recorded the lowest SLG (.365) and ISO (.147) of his major-league career. To put these woes into perspective, the last time he endured this kind of power slump during a full season was in 2016, where the then 23-year-old recorded a .414 SLG and a .194 ISO.

Nearing the final month of the regular season, there isn’t much time remaining for the former 10th-round pick to salvage his performance before he potentially reaches the open market in a couple of months. Having said that, the 2017 National League All-Star has improved his play recently that could allow him to finish strong down the stretch.

As unproductive as Conforto has been at times this season, finishing the campaign on a high note could help him make up for some of his prior ineffectiveness, and that’s exactly the path the corner outfielder is currently following as he’s enjoyed plenty of success at the dish this month.

Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Finding his stroke offensively as of late, the Oregon State standout has been riding one of his best stretches of the season since Aug. 7, resulting in four doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs, a .220 ISO, a .350 BABIP, a .384 wOBA, a 146 wRC+ score and a slashing of .288/.382/.508/.891 over his last 68 plate appearances.

As for his results before this recent turnaround, the former Beaver wasn’t anywhere near as effective through the first four months of the season, which saw him create 12 doubles, six home runs, 24 RBIs, a .128 ISO, a .246 BABIP, a .301 wOBA, a measly 92 wRC+ score and a troubling slashing line of .201/.331/.329/.660 over his first 281 plate appearances.

While most of the Mets’ offense has remained unproductive, aside from teammates Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, Conforto has served as one of the top hitters in their lineup during this span. As a result, he’s generated the highest wRC+ score, OBP, wOBA, the second-highest SLG and ISO, the third-highest BABIP, AVG and fWAR rating (0.4) among all hitters on the team with at least 20 plate appearances, according to FanGraphs.

Along with this sudden increase in slugging, the Washington native has also improved his ability to create hard contact, which is an aspect he struggled with earlier in the season. Though he’s never been known as someone who produces a significant amount of hard-hit balls, this current stretch is proving otherwise, allowing him to locate holes in opposing defenses despite hitting almost half (43.5%) of his balls in play on the ground.

Prior to his offensive resurgence, Conforto registered a reasonable 38.7% hard-hit rate and an 88.4 mph average exit velocity from Apr. 5 to Aug. 6 – both of which were on par with his previous career marks. But since Aug. 7, he’s blown past each of those totals, resulting in an eye-popping 44.2% hard-hit rate and a 91.1 mph average exit velocity.

Obviously, these outstanding batted-ball metrics have been created over a fairly small sample size, just 41 events, although it’s still very encouraging to witness this increased hard contact ahead of the final month of the 2021 campaign.

Digging deeper into Conforto’s offensive performance, the veteran hitter didn’t fare well against cutters or sinkers earlier this season, recording the majority of his damage against four-seamers. Putting those struggles in the rear-view mirror, he’s completely overcome his woes since the calendar shifted to August and has thrived against both of those offerings recently.

Even though opposing pitchers have only thrown him a combined 61 pitches of this variety since Aug. 7, that hasn’t prevented the veteran lefty from excelling against cutting and sinking fastballs, as he’s posted a .615 AVG, a .385 xAVG, a 1.308 SLG, a .860 xSLG, a .500 ISO, a .750 BABIP, a .788 wOBA, a .547 xwOBA and a 97.3 mph average exit velocity through 15 plate appearances.

Conforto’s huge home run Saturday came off a sinker.

The THIRD home run of the night for the Mets, and boy was this a big one by Michael Conforto. pic.twitter.com/KyM8yT6c03

— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) August 29, 2021

In comparison, “Scooter” compiled a total of 65 plate appearances against cutters and sinkers prior to this date, producing an underwhelming .170 AVG, .249 xAVG, .208 SLG, .367 xSLG, .038 ISO, .225 BABIP, .262 wOBA, .346 xwOBA and an 84.8 mph average exit velocity.

Similar to Conforto’s overall results during this recent stretch, his stellar metrics when facing cutting and sinking fastballs probably aren’t completely sustainable over a much larger sample size. In saying that, there’s no reason to suggest he’ll ultimately regress to his previous struggles either, especially if he’s able to continue generating high amounts of hard contact.

Considering there’s still a massive gap in the standings between the Mets and the NL East Division-leading Atlanta Braves, receiving sustained offensive production from the former top prospect through the rest of the season could certainly be beneficial for an offense that remains inconsistent. If successful, achieving this goal could help the impending free agent increase his value on the open market in the off-season.

As of now, it’d likely be extremely difficult for Conforto to pursue a lucrative contract in free agency, which could potentially increase his chances of returning to New York in 2022. But if he were to conclude the regular season on a high note, odds are he’d probably attract considerably more interest over the winter.

Regardless of what the future holds for the Mets’ outfielder, this offensive awakening appears to have provided him a prime opportunity to turn the corner on what’s been an extremely disappointing season up to this point.

The post Amid Disappointing Season, Michael Conforto Experiencing Offensive Revival appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Despite plenty of optimism heading into this season, it’s no secret the New York Mets have struggled scoring consistently this summer, and if this team hopes to make a late push for the playoffs, some key adjustments must be made to help ignite this offense down the stretch.

In an attempt to provide the club’s pitching staff significantly more run support, the most obvious solution to this scoring crisis would be for the Mets to experience a major power surge over the final month and a half of the regular season. But like we’ve witnessed all year long, breaking out offensively doesn’t usually happen overnight and requires a considerable amount of time to take form – something this team doesn’t possess much of.

Nearing the end of August, New York finds itself in a three-team race for the National League East Division title, involving the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, however, this club still has a ton of ground to make up to position themselves closer to first place. Since desperate times call for desperate measures, now would be the ideal time to become dramatically more aggressive, particularly on the bases.

Even though baserunning isn’t a vital aspect of the sport anymore, as it’s been deemed an unnecessary risk in today’s era, operating efficiently in this department can still have a pretty large impact on the outcome of a game, especially for an offense that struggles to hit for power.

While being effective on the base paths doesn’t necessarily mean the difference between competitive and non-competitive teams, there are some advantages to gaining an extra 90 feet or more. For the Mets in particular, they haven’t explored this avenue nearly as much as they probably should, causing them to serve as one of the worst baserunning clubs in the majors this season.

Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Proving to be a one-dimensional offense, this team currently owns the lowest BsR (-15.4), is tied for the lowest speed score (3.2) and has registered the second-fewest stolen bases (32) among all 30 teams in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

In addition, they’re also tied for the third-lowest SLG (.379) and have produced the third-fewest runs scored (457), the fourth-lowest ISO (.144), along with the fifth-fewest home runs (126).

Barring some sort of offensive explosion, which seems unlikely at this point, it’d be wise for the Mets to at least consider increasing their aggressiveness on the bases through the remainder of the campaign. This altered approach may not lead to improved slugging metrics, although there’s a very strong chance it could provide considerably more run-scoring opportunities.

For the most part, this lineup has primarily moved just station-to-station on the base paths, and on occasion, has attempted to advance from first to third base on hits that have been directed to right field. Stealing bases also haven’t been a major focal point of their agenda, which are two areas they should spend significantly more attention on moving forward.

Though most organizations don’t feel comfortable about taking baserunning risks early in games, that thought process isn’t something New York should apply to its roster any longer, as scoring first has become a huge weakness for them in 2021. Lacking a serious punch out of the gate, this team has struggled mightily at generating consistent offense through the first three innings of each contest, providing the pitching staff very little margin for error.

Putting these struggles into perspective, the Mets have recorded the second-fewest runs scored (132) and RBIs (122), the fourth-lowest wRC+ score and the fifth-fewest stolen bases (12) among all 30 major league teams during those first three innings.

Making matters worse, they’ve also grounded into 29 double plays during that same span, which is tied for ninth-most in the majors.

Taking into account this team’s 8.5% walk rate within the first three innings of a game – tied for 10th-highest in the majors – it’d make plenty of sense to allow those base runners to operate more aggressively in hopes of sparking this underperforming lineup. If successful, there’d likely be dramatically more runners in scoring position early on, forcing opposing defenses to change their alignments, potentially allowing for more balls to sneak through for hits.

Even though the Mets don’t feature a long list of elite speedsters, outfielder Brandon Nimmo is someone who features a ton of quickness but hasn’t received enough opportunities in the past to make a sizeable impact with his game-changing speed.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Despite posting a 3.8 BsR, a 5.9 speed score and 12 stolen bases from 2018-2019, Nimmo’s outstanding skills on the base paths have barely been utilized over the last two seasons, resulting in a -0.6 BsR, a 3.8 speed score and only three stolen bases since 2020.

Granted, the 28-year-old has struggled to stay healthy this season and suffered a hamstring injury at the end of July, so the coaching staff is likely attempting to avoid any further injury by limiting his intensity while he’s on base. But given his .399 OBP and .351 wOBA in 2021, playing it safe with the 6’3″ outfielder is probably costing this club a solid amount of potential run-scoring chances.

Since Nimmo’s sprint speed has surpassed his previous career-high, as it’s climbed to 28.8 feet per second, there’s no reason why he can start using his legs on the bases significantly more often through the remainder of the season, assuming he’s fully healthy, of course. In turn, he should be provided the green light to steal more bases and move first to third when the right opportunities present themselves.

Along with utilizing Nimmo’s quickness more frequently, the Mets’ lineup could become an even more effective baserunning unit once infielders Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez return to action, as both of them have made a pretty significant impact on the bases in 2021.

Starting with Baez, when he’s able to get on base, the 28-year-old doesn’t have any issues showcasing his speed, allowing him to generate a 2.7 BsR, a 6.1 speed score and 13 stolen bases. As for Lindor, he’s also difficult to stop on the base paths, since he’s registered a 1.7 BsR, a 5.1 speed score and eight stolen bases.

While there likely won’t be much playing time for veteran Jonathan Villar in the near future, it could still be very beneficial to utilize the 30-year-old during prime pinch-running situations, especially considering he leads the team in stolen bases (10), is second in BsR (1.3) and third in speed score (4.7).

With the Mets seemingly searching for answers, becoming a more aggressive baserunning team could potentially be just what they need to improve their offensive efficiency. Sure, this game plan doesn’t come without some level of risk, however, the reward of executing this approach could prove to be extremely fulfilling.

Even if this strategy doesn’t correct every single offensive woe, which it probably wouldn’t do anyway, altering this team’s thinking process would likely be much more effective than staying on this current course, hoping something drastic will happen to this lack of scoring all on its own.

The post Mets Would Be Wise to Increase Aggressiveness on Base Paths appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret the New York Mets explored potential upgrades at the third base position over the offseason, but once those efforts proved to be ineffective, they pivoted back to infielder J.D. Davis and were hopeful he could improve off his disappointing 2020 campaign.

Coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder, Davis was determined to put those trade rumors behind him and was aiming to prove his doubters wrong – something most experts didn’t believe was attainable. Though the 28-year-old’s defense remains a huge question mark, as he’s posted a -2 OAA over 242 2/3 innings at the hot corner this season, he made up for those woes with his offense through the first month of the schedule.

Wasting no time out of the gate, the 6’3″ third baseman enjoyed a very productive start to the regular season, and while his offensive production didn’t completely outweigh his shortcomings in the field, they allowed him to remain a positive contributor during this opening stretch.

Serving as one of the top hitters in the Mets’ lineup from Apr. 5 to May 1, Davis performed as a reliable run producer, as he recorded three doubles, two home runs, seven RBIs, a .220 ISO, a .583 BABIP, a .462 wOBA, a 195 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .390/.479/.610/1.089 over his first 48 plate appearances in 2021.

Despite being on this incredible run, unfortunately, the right-hander’s season hit a major snag in early May when he suffered a significant sprain in his left hand, forcing the team to place him on the injured list. Initially, the training staff didn’t expect him to miss more than a few weeks or so, but due to multiple setbacks, the power-slugging infielder was ultimately sidelined through the rest of the first half.

With Davis out of commission, New York’s offense sorely missed his presence within the middle of the batting order, which was one of the key reasons this club struggled scoring runs heading into the Mid-Summer Classic. Luckily, the former third-round pick was ready to return from the IL after the all-star break and was looking to pick up exactly where he left off earlier in the campaign.

Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Making a strong impact shortly after his activation, the former Houston Astro was eased back into action at first as he was limited to pinch-hitting duties, although he put on a remarkable show during his first game back at third base. Carrying this team’s lineup in a losing effort, the offensive-first righty clubbed a pair of home runs, driving in four runs on Jul. 17 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

While receiving this type of showing from Davis was an encouraging sign, it didn’t prove to be sustainable and saw him endure a very tough stretch at the plate through the remainder of July, causing him to become an unreliable run producer and a major liability.

Unable to break out of his hitting slump, the California State product struggled mightily following his multi-home run performance, resulting in just two extra-base hits, a .054 ISO, a .273 BABIP, a .226 wOBA, a 43 wRC+ score and a miserable slashing line of .162/.262/.216/.478 over his 42 plate appearances from Jul. 18-31.

Adding to his frustration, Davis witnessed a dramatic increase in strikeouts after coming off the IL, causing his strikeout rate to jump from 31.3% through the first month of the season to 35.7% in July. Making matters worse, his ability to create hard contact also dropped off significantly during that same span, as his hard-hit rate decreased by 31.8% (50.0% – 18.2%) and his average exit velocity lowered by 8.9 mph (92.9 – 84.0).

Pleased to turn the calendar to August, the California native has recently displayed some encouraging signs of potentially being on the verge of surpassing this disappointing stretch, which would certainly be a welcomed occurrence. Granted, he’s only compiled 31 plate appearances this month but has been producing similar results dating back to before his unfortunate injury.

Seemingly breaking out of his offensive funk, Davis has been thriving in the batter’s box since Aug. 2, allowing him to generate four doubles, three RBIs, a .167 ISO, a .500 BABIP, a .431 wOBA, a 175 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .333/.484/.500/.984.

One of the biggest causes for this recent turnaround has been the former top prospect’s improved plate discipline, as he’s nearly been able to register more walks than strikeouts lately. In total, he’s earned seven walks and has only struck out eight times since the start of August, resulting in a 22.6% walk rate and a 25.8% strikeout rate.

Along with becoming less susceptible to strikeouts, Davis has also rediscovered his ability to produce high amounts of hard contact, allowing him to record a 50.0% hard-hit rate and an 86.5 mph average exit velocity over 16 batted-ball events.

Putting these impressive metrics into perspective, the Elk Grove HS product has served as one of the top offensive producers on the Mets’ roster, as he’s generated the highest fWAR rating (0.4), wRC+ score, AVG, OBP, BABIP and wOBA, is tied for the second-highest SLG and owns the fourth-highest ISO among all hitters who’ve earned at least 20 plate appearances this month, according to FanGraphs.com.

Since this team is currently in a tight playoff race within the National League East Division, receiving improved results from Davis couldn’t be coming at a better time, especially since they’re taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants several times over these next two weeks.

Paired with some positive results from teammate Michael Conforto, who’s also started to heat up recently, this offense might finally be heading in the right direction during the most crucial time of the season. While injuries to key players remain a huge concern, as shortstop Francisco Lindor likely won’t return until September and Javier Baez continues to deal with lower-back discomfort, other players are beginning to step up when it matters most.

With Davis in particular, second baseman Jeff McNeil or Baez will eventually need to move over to third base once Lindor returns to action, meaning locating consistent playing time for the former outfielder could become extremely difficult down the stretch.

Having said that, if he continues to make a difference with his offense, manager Luis Rojas will likely have no other choice but to find a way to keep the right-hander’s bat in the lineup on a regular basis – that’s a pretty good problem to have for any coaching staff.

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