The New York Mets go for the sweep Sunday afternoon against the New York Yankees.

The Mets posted a massive 12-6 victory on Saturday, extending their winning streak to four games. For a second-straight game, the Mets hit three home runs and the bullpen was able to hold the Yankees’ offense off just enough to lock down the game.

Now, the Mets will try to do the improbable, get the win against the Yankees’ ace while pitching a bullpen game.

Mets Lineup

1. Starling Marte, LF
2. Francisco Lindor, SS
3. Juan Soto, RF
4. Pete Alonso, 1B
5. Brandon Nimmo, DH
6. Mark Vientos, 3B
7. Tyrone Taylor, CF
8. Jeff McNeil, 2B
9. Hayden Senger, C

Chris Devenski gets the start for the Mets Sunday afternoon. Devenski pitched Saturday, facing two batters, allowing a hit and getting a groundout while throwing only five pitches. Over 5 1/3 innings this season, he has a 3.38 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 0.938 WHIP, and a 121 ERA+.

Devenski will be followed by Brandon Waddell, who is slated to be the bulk guy. Over 17 2/3 innings and  seven games, Waddell has a 2.55 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.132 WHIP, and a 153 ERA+. Earlier this season, he pitched five innings of relief against the Chicago White Sox tossing 94 pitches. He’s gone over 60 pitches several times and his last two outings were each three innings.

Chris Devenski. Photo Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

Yankees Lineup

1. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
2. Trent Grisham, CF
3. Aaron Judge, RF
4. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
5. Cody Bellinger, LF
6. Anthony Volpe, SS
7. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
8. Austin Wells, C
9. Oswaldo Peraza, 3B

The Mets’ bats will close the series against an old foe in Max Fried. Fried is enduring a career season with the Yankees, pitching 114 innings over 18 starts with a 2.13 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 0.939 WHIP, and a 188 ERA+.

He’s coming off of a rough start against the Blue Jays who tagged him for four runs over six innings, including two home runs. He was solid against the Mets in May, holding the Mets to only two runs over six innings from three hits and two walks while striking out eight.

The Mets have the following career stats against Fried:

• Pete Alonso 10-39, 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 14 K
• Brett Baty 2-6, 3 K
• Travis Jankowski 0-0, BB
• Francisco Lindor 3-31, HR, 6 K
• Starling Marte 5-23, 3 2B, BB, 6 K
• Jeff McNeil 11-32, 3 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-29, 2 2B, 6 BB, 12 K
• Juan Soto 9-30, 2B, 5 BB, 11 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-7, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 1-3

Game Notes

Kodai Senga made a rehab start for Double-A Binghamton Sunday. He gave up three earned runs over 3 2/3 innings, but, importantly, threw 68 pitches.

According to manager Carlos Mendoza, Senga is, “hopefully making a start for us [Mets] next time.” That projects to be during the series in Kansas City.

According to manager Carlos Mendoza, designated hitter Jesse Winker might come off the injured list and join the Mets in Baltimore.

Three Things To Watch For

1. Pete Alonso. Alonso had a massive day for the Mets on Saturday, going 2-for-4 with three runs scored, five RBIs, and two home runs. Alonso was in a bit of a home run drought going 13 games without hitting one (.327 SLG over that stretch). He now has 20 on the season and 246 in his career as he continues his chase for the franchise record held by Strawberry (252). Additionally, he already has 25 doubles this season which is the National League lead and only six less than he had in all of 2024. Before Saturday’s game where he hit two home runs, he already had a 2.9 bWAR, which is higher than his bWAR total for 2024 (2.6).
2. Brandon Nimmo. It doesn’t matter where Brandon Nimmo is hitting in the lineup right now. Saturday, the Mets went with Starling Marte in the lead-off spot and Nimmo in the fifth spot. Nimmo responded with a 2-for-4 performance including a grand slam. It was his third home run in his last four games played and his second grand slam over that time.
3. Managing the bullpen. Through injuries, a doubleheader last Wednesday, and chaotic usage over the last couple of days, the Mets’ bullpen is tired. New York is going to relish the day off on Monday, which should also allow the Mets to push the unit a bit harder Sunday. The Mets still needed four relievers on Saturday to get through the game, including Edwin Díaz, who tossed 18 pitches. Díaz had to start warming up in the eighth because Ryne Stanek looked spotty. There’s a good chance Zach Pop, who was signed before the start of Saturday’s game, will make his Mets debut. Pop has allowed nine runs over 5 1/3 innings this season in the majors but had a 3.52 ERA over nine games (7 2/3 innings) in Tacoma (Triple-A).

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From Nolan McLean at Triple-A to Jose Chirinos, who recently got promoted from the Florida Complex League, and every level in between, there is pitching talent with tantalizing potential throughout the organization.

Nolan McLean. Photo Credit: Kylie Richelle

The Stable

The headliners are McLean and Jonah Tong, prospects with big-time helium who are taking off in 2025.

McLean started the year at Double-A, dominated, got promoted to Triple-A, and hasn’t missed a beat. He has an elite sweeper that has been big league ready from the moment he stepped onto a professional mound, a mid-90s heater, a sinker that has been missing bats like crazy, a cutter that has been inducing weak contact, and a changeup and curveball he mixes in occasionally.

Tong boasts the best fastball in the organization. Due to it’s elite IVB (induced vertical break), it was already the best fastball in the organization when he was throwing it in the low-to-mid 90s. Now, he’s routinely throwing it 95 and can get it up to 97. He has a big looping curveball and a slider that can both be plus pitches, but his new Vulcanchange has been a game changer, giving him an effective offspeed pitch that he had been searching for. He’s too good for Double-A, and should probably receive a promotion to Triple-A soon.

There’s also Brandon Sproat, who is probably more of a household name than Tong and McLean despite those two passing him in the prospect ranks. Sproat flew through the minors last year, making it all the way to Triple-A in what was his first season of professional baseball. However, he struggled mightily once he got there, and those struggles have continued in 2025. Sproat has a bunch of solid offerings, but no standout pitch like Tong and McLean. He’s still just 24, and is less than a year removed from dominating hitters at Double-A, so there’s plenty of time for him to right the ship. (He has a 2.25 ERA in his last 16 innings as of publishing.) He remains one of the top pitching prospects in the organization, the hype has just faded a bit.

Blade Tidwell is at Triple-A as well, and he’s been one of the most effective pitchers in the league. Don’t let the 4.02 ERA fool you—that’s pretty good for the International League. It’s also a full run lower since he was returned to Triple-A after making his big league debut a little over a month ago. He got hit around a bit by the Cardinals in that debut, but he has good stuff, and it’s very possible he makes another big league start at some point this season.

Meanwhile, the Binghamton Rumble Ponies have a stacked rotation just one level below. It’s headlined by Tong, but there are multipe probable future big leaguers on that staff as well.

Jack Wenninger. Photo by Kylie Richelle

Jack Wenninger has turned in the fourth-highest strikeout rate among  Double-A qualifiers, only behind Tong, top MLB pitching prospect Chase Burns and rising Cardinals prospect Tekoah Roby. Jonathan Pintaro, a former Division II pitcher who was signed out of indy ball last year, would be near the top of those leaderboards as well if he were qualified. He’s a great story, and while he is older at 27, he’s turned himself into a legitimate prospect in this system. Then there’s Zach Thornton, a southpaw, who rarely walks people while still posting a high strikeout rate. Over his last three starts, he’s given up just three hits and one run over 19 innings while striking out 22 and walking four.

High-A Brooklyn has maybe even more talent. 2024 second-round pick Jonathan Santucci actually has the worst ERA of the bunch at 4.32, but after a rough start he’s thrown 20 and 2/3 innings of one-run ball over his last four starts. Third-rounder Nate Dohm has turned in four good starts after his promotion from St. Lucie, and Noah Hall, Brendan Girton and R.J. Gordon all have ERAs under 3.30 in over 40 innings.

The Cyclones actually have too many pitchers for available starts. Gordon and Girton piggybacked each other earlier this week, with Gordon going the first three and 2/3 and Girton going the next four and 1/3. Two days later, Dohm and Hall did the same, throwing a respective five and four scoreless innings en route to a shutout victory.

It continues down to Single-A St. Lucie and the Florida Complex League. Irving Cota has a 1.85 ERA in 35 innings and even threw five scoreless innings in a spot start at Double-A before being sent back to St. Lucie. Will Watson had success, earning a promotion to Brooklyn in early June. Edgar Moreta and Wellington Aracena have both had strong seasons. Jose Chirinos was great in the FCL, and then threw four and 2/3 scoreless with seven strikeouts in his Single-A debut.

There are more. Joander Suarez had a lot of success at Double-A and is now getting his first taste of Triple-A action. Joel Díaz has had a solid season at High-A. Former top prospect Matt Allan is finally back on the mound, pitching for Brooklyn. These guys might be more like organizational depth pieces, but they have all flashed before.

There are also, of course, relievers. Some are former starters, like Douglas Orellana, Felipe De La Cruz, Saul Garcia, Cameron Foster and Dom Hamel. There are a few fireballers, like Ryan Lambert, Dylan Ross and Raimon Gómez, who are capable of touching triple digits. Then there are other relievers, like Ryan Ammons, Anthony Nunez and TJ Shook, who have consistently turned in good results.

The farm system is deeper than it ever has been before.

The Mets have had groups of highly-touted pitching prospects before. Generation K. The Big 5 of the mid-2010s. Maybe it’s a reminder that so often, prospects don’t pan out as expected. But the Mets have also never had the infrastructure to support these pitching prospects as they do right now.

The Big Picture

The Arizona Diamondbacks just provided the baseball world with an unfortunate reminder this past week with the news of Corbin Burnes needing to undergo Tommy John surgery becoming official—don’t sign starting pitchers to long-term contracts. Develop pitchers, that way you’re not forced to sign free agent starting pitchers to big-money, multi-year contracts.

The Mets have leaned heavily into that philosophy in the first two years under David Stearns. They pursued Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a unicorn in the free agent market at 25 years old, but other than that, they’ve stayed away from the big-name, high-priced free agent pitchers. No Burnes. No Max Fried. No Blake Snell. Fried has been great, but it’s an eight-year contract. That’s a long time to count on a pitcher to be healthy. Burnes and Snell are both already on the shelf.

Instead, the Mets opted for shorter deals. In 2024, it was Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. In 2025, it was Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning, Frankie Montas and re-upping Manaea. Montas and Manaea both opened the season on the injured list, but they are signed to two-year and three-year deals, respectively. There’s no true long-term commitment to either.

Is the Big Money Worth It?

Pitchers are inherently a high-risk free agent buy. Burnes signed a 6-year, $210 million deal with the Diamondbacks this offseason. He will miss the rest of 2025, and there’s a good chance he will miss all of 2026 as well. Arizona will pay him roughly $62 million for what could be 11 total starts from 2025 to 2026. The next time he pitches for the Diamondbacks will likely be when he is 32 years old. He already showed some early signs of decline this year before the injury. Who knows how he will look in 2027, especially coming off a major arm injury? Arizona will then be on the hook for four more years, with Burnes making over $30 million each year, and then owe him over $10 million a year for six more years in deferred money starting in 2031.

The Mets are better equipped than most to withstand injuries to players on big contracts, but no team wants that much dead money on the books. Even Steve Cohen wants to avoid paying people to not play as much as possible.

But how does a smaller market team justify that risk? That much dead money can be a backbreaker for a team that only signs a handful of players to big-money contracts — and “handful” might be too optimistic for a few organizations.

Since 2022, 11 pitchers (and Shohei Ohtani, who is yet to pitch for the Dodgers) have signed 9-digit free agent contracts: Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón, Edwin Díaz, Aaron Nola, deGrom, Yamamoto, Burnes, Fried and Snell. Eight of those 11 pitchers have made at least one trip to the 60-day IL. That includes the youngster Yamamoto, who made just 18 starts for the Dodgers in his rookie season.

Aaron Nola hasn’t, but after signing a seven-year, $172 million deal entering his age-31 season, he’s regressed so much just one year later that his contract is beginning to look like an albatross. He’s also currently on the 15-day IL and just had his return timeline pushed back. Fried hasn’t, and again, has looked fantastic, but he’s just two months into an eight-year deal. Gausman is the outlier, not taking a single trip to the injured list over the three years and change of his five-year deal, and has remained productive.

It’s an unfair line of thinking for pitchers, and it raises a lot of questions about a much larger issue. How does the league balance a need to compensate pitchers fairly for their work with the obligations of a front office to do what’s best for their organization?

Organizations getting what may be the best years of a pitcher’s career, while significantly underpaying them for six years for the value they are providing, and then tossing them aside when they finally have the opportunity to get paid is, to put it bluntly, a pretty crappy way to treat pitchers. However, organizations should always do what is in their best interests as they pursue the ultimate goal of winning a championship, and that includes wisely distributing their payroll. Smart organizations pay players for what they believe they will do over the course of their new contract, not what they have already done.

History shows it is not smart to sign free agent pitchers to long-term contracts, but underpaying pitchers for years only to cut them loose when it’s finally time for them to make money feels borderline predatory. Short-term contracts for pitchers will always exist, but even if they have high average annual values, they lack the security many players desire.

Is the solution players hitting free agency earlier, maybe after four years instead of six (or seven if their service time is manipulated)? That way, players hit free agency younger, they can cash in earlier, and maybe long-term deals for pitchers are more justifiable if that pitcher is 26 or 28 instead of 30 or 32.

Of course, that opens a much, much, MUCH larger can of worms, and would likely have a ripple effect on many other parts of the Collective Bargaining Agreement — too much to get into right now.

It’s such a difficult issue. Players deserve to be compensated fairly for the value they create, but ultimately, teams need to do everything possible to win, and anything less is malpractice. Unfortunately, that usually means staying away from giving long-term free agent deals to pitchers, signing pitchers to short-term deals when needed, and ideally, developing your own pitchers instead of buying them.

The Mets didn’t have a ton of MLB-ready, quality arms in the minor leagues in 2024 or to begin 2025. They turned to undervalued veterans with good tools like Manaea, Canning and the others, and focused on getting the most out of them. Soon, some of those big league starts will be taken by players the Mets have developed through the minor leagues themselves. McLean has the best combination of talent and proximity, but Sproat, Tidwell, Tong, Wenninger, Pintaro and Thornton are all at least at Double-A. Once you reach that level, the big leagues are within striking distance.

Not everyone will stick in the big leagues, but some will, and that’s an exciting thing for Mets fans to look forward to.

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The game was dominated by pitching, as David Peterson took the mound for the Mets and Max Fried started for the Yankees. Both left-handed starters delivered nearly identical performances. Specifically, Peterson allowed two runs on three hits with four strikeouts across six innings, while Fried also went six frames, surrendering two runs on three hits with eight strikeouts.

Each bullpen did its job through the middle innings, with Huascar Brazobán and Devin Williams coming through with key strikeouts to keep the game even.

Cody Bellinger got the Yankees on the board early with a double that caromed off Pete Alonso at first base. Jeff McNeil responded by singling in a run for the Mets to cut the deficit to one, and later came around to score on a Max Fried wild pitch.

The Mets’ bullpen faltered first, as Ryne Stanek entered in the eighth and quickly put two runners on base. The tie was broken when Pete Alonso fielded a Jorbit Vivas ground ball and threw it over Francisco Alvarez‘s head, allowing Jasson Dominguez to score. Paul Goldschmidt, continuing his strong run at the plate, followed with an RBI single. Then came the knockout punch as Cody Bellinger launched a grand slam off Génesis Cabrera, who had just walked the bases loaded.

The offense fell flat in the series, as they managed only seven runs and went just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position in the finale, stranding five. Defensive issues didn’t help either, as costly errors from Alonso and Mark Vientos added to the Mets’ woes. Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso went a combined 0-for-12 with four strikeouts between them.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Player of the Game: Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil provided the only offense of the game for the Mets, going 1-for-1 with an RBI single and two walks. McNeil brought home the second Mets run on a wild pitch from Max Fried.

On Deck

The Mets are thrown right back into the fray as they travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox at Fenway Park Monday night. Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.02 ERA) will toe the slab for the Mets in Beantown, while Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.09 ERA) goes for Boston. First pitch is at 6:45 pm ET and will be broadcast on SNY and Mets Radio 880.

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Talk about poetry and drama in the Subway Series!

Friday night, Juan Soto recorded the last out. Saturday afternoon, Aaron Judge recorded the last out. With the series on the line the New York Yankees turn to Max Fried, the pitcher they signed after Juan Soto turned down their massive offer.

Mets Lineup

1. Francisco Lindor – SS
2. Juan Soto – RF
3. Pete Alonso – 1B
4. Mark Vientos – 3B
5. Brandon Nimmo – LF
6. Starling Marte – DH
7. Francisco Alvarez – C
8. Jeff McNeil – CF
9. Luisangel Acuña – 2B

David Peterson has pitched 44 1/3 innings over eight starts this year with a 3.05 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.353 WHIP, and a 128 ERA+. He has allowed two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts and has pitched six innings in back-to-back starts.

There have been two concerns lately, though. First, he’s allowed seven walks in his last two starts. He walked only nine batters in the six starts before that. He’s also allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, after going five straight starts without allowing any home runs.

The Yankees have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Cody Bellinger 0-4, K
• Trent Grisham 1-4, K
• Aaron Judge 0-1, BB
• DJ LeMahieu 0-1, BB
• Anthony Volpe 1-3, 2 K

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Yankees Lineup

1. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
2. Trent Grisham – CF
3. Aaron Judge – RF
4. Cody Bellinger – LF
5. Anthony Volpe – SS
6. Jasson Domínguez – DH
7. DJ LeMahieu – 2B
8. Austin Wells – C
9. Oswald Peraza – 3B

Max Fried is living up to his massive eight-year, $218 million deal early on. Over 56 2/3 innings (nine starts), he has a 1.11 ERA (league leading), 2.85 FIP, 0.935 WHIP, and a 356 ERA+ (league leading). From late April to early May he went three consecutive starts without allowing a run.

The good news for the Mets is he has allowed runs in back-to-back starts (two runs in 12 innings with 13 strikeouts). Fried held the Mets scoreless and hitless over seven innings in his only start against them in 2024, but this was also during the Mets’ free falling month of May.

The Mets have the following career numbers against Fried:

• Pete Alonso 10-36, 2B, 2 HR, 6 BB, 12 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-4
• José Azócar 2-4
• Brett Baty 2-6, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 3-28, HR, 6 K
• Starling Marte 4-21, 2 2B, BB, 5 K
• Jeff McNeil 10-31, 3 2B, BB, 6 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-27, 2 2B, 5 BB, 11 K
• Juan Soto 9-27, 2B, 5 BB, 9 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-7, 2 K

Game Notes

The Mets released veteran outfielder Billy McKinney. He was playing for Triple-A Syracuse.

Jared Young continued his terrific beginning of the season. He went 3-for-4 with four RBIs in Triple-A Syracuse’s loss on Sunday. Pitcher Brandon Waddell had by far his worst start of the season, allowing six earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. His season ERA still sits at a strong 3.06.

Double-A Binghamton improved their Eastern League-best record to 22-16 on Sunday. Binghamton’s top four of their lineup combined to go 10-for-17.

High-A outfielder, and former first-round pick, Carson Benge had a massive day for Brooklyn. In their extra-innings contest, Benge went 2-for-3 with a home run, double, four RBIs, and two walks. His season OPS is now .919.

Three Things To Watch For

1. Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso, the best hitter on the Mets by OPS, is the key player for Sunday’s game. Friday night, he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Saturday, he went 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI. When he hits well, the Mets win the games because the people in front of him are getting on base. Alonso also has terrific career numbers against Fried, who has been cruising through lineups this season.
2. Aaron Judge. Judge feasted on the Mets Friday, but Saturday was a different story. Judge went 0-for-5 at the plate with three strikeouts lowering in his batting average to .402. The Mets just need to keep him contained for one more game.
3. Who is available in the Mets’ bullpen? The Mets needed to use three high leverage relievers yesterday (Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazobán, and Edwin Díaz), all throwing between 17 and 23 pitches. All three pitchers had at least three days of rest before yesterday’s game, so they may having something in the tank for Sunday. Ryne Stanek hasn’t pitched since Tuesday and it feels likely we’ll see him at some point tonight.

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According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the contract has no opt-outs or deferrals and has a full no-trade clause.

Fried, 30, spent his eight-year career as a member of the Atlanta Braves. He holds a 3.07 ERA and 1.164 WHIP through 884.1 innings pitched with 246 walks and 863 strikeouts. He is 17th in bWAR among active pitchers (23.1) and carries a career 140 ERA+. A two-time All-Star and Gold Glove recipient, Fried finished second in Cy Young voting in 2022 and fifth in 2020. He also won a Silver Slugger Award.

Injuries have plagued Fried throughout his career, missing time as recently as early 2024 with forearm issues. He still made 29 starts in 2024 but only 14 in 2023.  Since he rejected the Braves’ qualifying offer in November, the Braves will earn a Draft Compensation pick after Round 4.

The Mets were not in on Fried, but according to a report from The Athletic‘s Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays remained favorites on the southpaw. According to Tim Healey of Newsday, the Mets are not expected to land Corbin Burnes either and might turn to the trade market for rotation help or middle-tier starters to round out their rotation.

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While everyone has all of their attention on the Juan Soto sweepstakes, which seem to be heating up, the Yankees are still keeping their eyes on the pitching market. The club in the Bronx officially spoke with both top free agent pitchers, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, via Zoom this past week, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. Reportedly, nine team officials including Brian Cashman, Aaron Boone and Matt Blake were on the call, which lasted over an hour.

While this might not have any correlation to the Yankees chance with Soto, it shows that New York is ready in case the slugger decides to jump ship. 

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Latest Mets News

New York City FC showed some pictures of the progress being made towards their new stadium in Queens.

Jose Iglesias told Laura Albanese of Newsday that he is very open to a return to the Mets, and will also be dropping a new song in 2025. 

Mets legend Johan Santana was inducted into the Latin Baseball Hall of Fame in the Dominican Republic. Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rodriguez and Andruw Jones were also inducted. 

The Mets received a fourth minor league option for right-handed hurler Max Kranick, per Joel Sherman of the NY Post. 

Frankie Montas’ two-year deal, including a player opt-out after 2025, with the Mets was officially announced by the club. David Stearns commented on the signing: “Throughout his career, Frankie has flashed some of the best stuff in the game. He’ll provide a stabilizing presence to our pitching staff and can contribute on and off the field.”

Latest MLB News

Several industry sources believe that the San Diego Padres are in a strong position to land Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, per Francys Romero. 

RHP Koyo Aoyagi’s 45-day negotiating window with major league teams has begun, after the Hanshin Tigers made his posting official, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The sidearm pitcher posted a 6.2 K/9 and 1.307 WHIP in 114 innings this past season.

Major and minor league player representatives, including former Met Chris Bassitt, were elected by the MLBPA.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that all five Juan Soto contenders, including the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers, are still in the mix. He also noted that he will meet with clubs this weekend and we should know his decision by the start of winter meetings on December 9.

On a Bleacher Report live stream, Jon Heyman reported that the Mets are still the favorites to land Pete Alonso. He also noted that getting Soto would in turn help the Mets keep Alonso.

Latest on MMO

Jose Iglesias is open to return to Queens in 2025!

Check out MMO’s free agent profile on a familiar face, Sean Manaea.

Hyeseong Kim of the KBO is being posted for major league clubs. 

On This Date in Mets History

2021: Former Mets manager Gil Hodges is elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The man who lead the Amazins to their first World Series got in on his 35th ballot.

2005: The Mets send prospects Gaby Hernandez and Dante Brinkley to the Florida Marlins and receive catcher Paul Lo Duca in return. His .297 average as a Met is the highest for any catcher in franchise history,

Born On This Date: Cliff Floyd (1972), Al Moran (1938).

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With Blake Snell heading to the Dodgers (five years, $182 million) and Yusei Kikuchi going to the Angels (three years, $63 million) on Monday, teams looking for starting pitching like the Mets suddenly find themselves with fewer options to bolster their rotations.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Corbin Burnes (MLB Trade Rumors projects seven years, $200 million) and Max Fried (MLB TR projects six years, $156 million) remain the best available. A tier below those two are Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea. Japanese starter Roki Sasaki, viewed by scouts to have ace potential, is expected to sign in January at a below-market deal as an international amateur. David Stearns went to Japan to get a look at Sasaki in September, though the Dodgers and Padres are considered favorites to sign the 23-year-old.

The Mets, with three holes to fill as Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana became free agents this offseason, have plenty of competition. The Red Sox, Padres, Cubs, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Tigers and others are in the hunt for starters.

Stearns said after the season that the Mets would have to add starters, but not necessarily a “name brand” pitcher. The SP depth chart right now: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill.

“This isn’t new to us,” Stearns said at an Oct. 23 news conference. “We faced a similar task last offseason. We’re going to have to replace innings. Certainly a part of that could potentially be from some of those guys returning or we may look elsewhere. But we’re going to have to add starting pitching, we’re going to have to add multiple starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same need and I think we’ll be able to do it.”

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There’s no doubt the Mets will continue to make similar one-to-two-year signings for low-risk, high-reward pitchers after their success last year. However, the question remains: will they target a front-line starter? The ace market is thin, and names like Max Fried and, of course, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell will be on everyone’s radar.

However, of the four, Burnes and Snell stand out as two pitchers who would star as true aces on a team and have done so in the past. So, who should the Mets sign to fill their number one spot in the rotation? A four-time All-Star and NL Cy Young like Burnes or two-time Cy Young winner and ERA leader?

Fellow MMO editor Mathias Altman-Kurosaki and I debate.

Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Sign Blake Snell

If you asked me in June who my top pitching target was, the answer would’ve been Corbin Burnes. Once Snell returned from the injured list though, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. From July 9 until the end of the season, Snell had a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts and held opponents to a .382 OPS over 80 1/3 innings. This dominant stretch included a no-hitter against the Reds. What this tells me is that with a normal spring training, Blake Snell has the potential to contend for another Cy Young award. Snell has had control problems in the past, making him a riskier arm, but he was able to keep the walks in check in 2024, especially when he came back from the IL. At this point, Snell has a higher ceiling than Burnes and will be worth the contract he’s commanding.

Corbin Burnes, Photo by Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Sign Corbin Burnes

It’s crazy to say Corbin Burnes struggled in 2024 while still posting a 2.92 ERA. Yes, he went through some rough stretches but worked to adjust a few pitch mechanics, specifically on his cutter, and the ace was back to normal. The O’s gave up a hefty haul for a year of Burnes, and he delivered another sub-3.00 ERA, his fifth in seven years of big league play. Arguably the best starter in the 2024-2025 free agent class, Burnes ranked in the 98th percentile in run value, 96th percentile in fastball run value, 88th percentile in breaking run value, 95th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 91st percentile in fastball velocity and 89th percentile in chase percentage.

While there are concerns regarding Burnes striking out a career-low 23.1% of batters in 2024, his velocity shows no signs of decline. According to Baseball Savant, his average fastball velocity in 2024 sat at 95.5 mph, up from 94.5 mph in 2023 and matching his 2021 Cy Young winning season velocity. While he may not be the strikeout pitcher he once was, there’s more said for durability. Since debuting in 2018, Burnes has only spent time on the IL twice, and once was for COVID-19.

He possesses a clutch factor — a 2.33 career ERA in the postseason. He most recently pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Orioles against the Royals in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.

While strikeouts and flashy awards are sexy at the end of the day, durability cannot be overlooked. His contract will be hefty, certainly over the $200 million mark, but at the end of the day, the Mets need a bona fide ace. Burnes fits that role and can act as a mentor to younger pitchers in the organization as well.

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Position: SP B/T: L/L
Age: 30 (1/18/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 11-10, 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 174.1 IP, 166 SO, 57 BB, 29 GS
2024 Advanced Stats: 3.5 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR, 128 ERA+, 3.64 xERA, 3.33 FIP, .282 BABIP, 23.3 SO%, 8.0 BB%

Rundown

After injuries limited Max Fried to 14 starts in 2023, he returned to workhorse form, taking the ball every fifth day for Atlanta as he had consistently from 2019-2022. He made the All-Star team for the second time this year but wasn’t as effective as he was the last time he made the squad in 2022, when he pitched to a 2.48 ERA and finished second in the Cy Young voting.

The eight-year veteran doesn’t throw hard (his fastball averaged 93.9 mph this season), but he effectively mixes six pitches (fastball, curve, sinker, change, slider, cutter) to keep hitters off balance. He is 73-36 for his career with a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He has accumulated 24.1 bWAR.

“He does a lot of little things,” Atlanta manager Brian Snitker told The New York Times during spring training. “Controlling the running game, fielding his position – all the peripheral things he’s really good at that winning pitchers do. He’s got (three) Gold Gloves, the ability to spin the ball and he’s a great athlete. If he wasn’t a pitcher, he’d probably be a center fielder.”

Lefties slashed .321/.395/.464 versus Fried this year (140 at-bats) while he held righties to a .200/.266/.273 line (505 ABs). It could be an anomaly since lefties have hit just .244/.314/.371 against him for his career.

He has scuffled in the postseason, too. He’s 2-5 with a 5.10 ERA in 20 appearances (12 starts) and gave up five runs on eight hits in two innings in a Wild Card game loss to the Padres last month.

Fried was drafted seventh overall by the Padres in 2012 and traded to the Braves in 2014 in a package for Justin Upton. He made his MLB debut in 2017. The Mets are familiar with him. He is 9-5 with a 2.48 ERA in 23 appearances (18 starts) vs. New York.

Contract

The Athletic projected Fried for a five-year, $140 million deal ($28 million AAV). Spotrac pegged his market value for six years and $136 million ($22.7 million AAV). Fried pitched on a one-year, $15 million deal in 2024. He should get one of the more lucrative pitching deals this winter.

The Braves made a qualifying offer to Fried so the team that signs him will incur a draft pick penalty.

Recommendation

Yes, please. (And we will keep our fingers crossed that he turns it around in October.) His upside is an ace and his downside is somewhere around 2024 Sean Manaea. He would fill a hole in the rotation and create one for a division rival. The Mets should do the max to get Fried. The Mets should make sure Max is freed from Atlanta. (The Mets should also come up with more inspiring wordplay to announce the signing.)

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The Mets ended Saturday with a two-game lead on the Atlanta Braves with seven games left, three of them being in Atlanta starting on Tuesday. The Mets’ magic number sits at six, which can be reduced by one if the Mets clinch the season series over the Braves, which is currently tied. This is similar to how the Phillies entered play on Friday night with a magic number of four, but their win over the Mets clinched the season series tiebreaker. The Mets loss, Phillies win, and Phillies season series win all added together took three off the magic number.

Above the Mets sits the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have handled the Milwaukee Brewers relatively easily this week and hold a one-game lead on New York. The Mets hold this tiebreaker, as they do with the San Diego Padres, who are three games up on New York after playing a series with the historically awful Chicago White Sox.

Following Atlanta, the Mets head to Milwaukee, where the Brewers appear to be slotted into the third seed in the National League playoff picture, which will reportedly lead to Brewers starting pitchers being inning-capped at just five for the rest of the season.

With a win tomorrow, Mendoza’s squad can drop their clinching number to just five. The Mets have a wild week ahead of them, which could include clinching a playoff spot for the second time in the last eight years. What’s does the next week look like?

Tylor Megill. Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Sunday

The Mets will take on the Phillies in their final regular season home game of 2024 on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Former Met Zack Wheeler will look to lead the Phillies to a division title, which they can clinch with a win on Sunday. The Phillies have not won a National League East crown since the 2011 season.

To counter Wheeler, the Mets will send out Tylor Megill, who has been magnificent in his last two starts. Since his return to Syracuse (Triple-A) was rerouted following Paul Blackburn’s injury, Megill has thrown 12 innings with just three hits allowed, no earned runs, and 13 strikeouts.

The Mets will very likely be without Francisco Lindor again, who manager Carlos Mendoza said is likely out until Tuesday’s game in Atlanta.

Elsewhere, the Atlanta Braves finish their series with Miami at 1:40 pm ET, as Grant Holmes (3.84 ERA) takes the mound for Atlanta versus Miami’s Darren McCaughan (7.64 ERA). Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery (6.23 ERA) finish their series with Milwaukee (Frankie Montas, 3.92 ERA) at 2:10 pm ET.

Monday

The Mets are off on Monday. The only notable game for the Mets is the Diamondbacks hosting the San Francisco Giants. The probable pitching matchup in that 9:40 pm ET showdown is Hayden Birdsong (4.74 ERA) for San Francisco and Eduardo Rodriguez (5.09 ERA) for Arizona. Remember, as it stands the Mets are one game back of Arizona, but do own the tiebreaker.

If the Mets can fend off the Phillies and Wheeler on Sunday night, the Phillies will take their magic number of one and head back to Citizens Bank Park, where they’ll look to win the National League East banner in front of a home crowd taking on the Washington Nationals.

Luis Severino. Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Tuesday

The Mets open their series with Atlanta in Truist Park on Tuesday, which is the Mets’ current target date for the return of Francisco Lindor. The younger brother of injured Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel Acuña, has become one of baseball’s best stories while holding down Lindor’s spot. The Mets bats will look to keep hot against the Braves after scoring 28 runs in their last four games combined.

The Mets are anticipating the trio of Luis Severino, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea starting in Atlanta, and likely in that order. This would be far and away the biggest start of Severino’s Mets career, but the veteran righty is no stranger to big games. Severino has 43 2/3 playoff innings under his belt and is the Mets’ most playoff-experienced starter in this series.

On the other side, the Mets should expect to see Chris Sale as his regular rest would line him up for the opening game of the three-game set. This would also line him up for game 162, which could be huge for the Braves. Granted, Atlanta has yet to make a formal announcement, however, all signs point to Sale starting the first game of this series, which would give the Mets back-to-back games against the likely Cy Young winner and runner-up.

It will be pivotal for the Mets to win on Tuesday for a number of reasons. In a fairly possible scenario where they go into Atlanta only one game up in the standings, this creates some breathing room for themselves and gives the Mets a win over the Braves’ best starter. If they go into Atlanta just a game up and can win on Tuesday, their prospects of popping champagne in Georgia grow exponentially.

Note, the Diamondbacks are once again slated to face off against the Giants at 9:40 pm ET. The probable pitching matchup in that one is Logan Webb (3.58 ERA) versus Brandon Pfaadt (4.66 ERA).

David Peterson. Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Wednesday

The Mets will likely go with David Peterson on Wednesday. Peterson will be making easily the biggest start of his major league career, but he has also never been a front-line starter with this level of success before this year. Peterson’s only outing against the Braves this season came on July 28, an outing in which he allowed four runs over five innings. Peterson has had some big moments against Atlanta, including a pair of outings in 2022 in which he allowed just two runs over a combined 10 2/3 innings. The left-handed starter was tagged for four earned runs in less than four innings by the Phillies on Friday night.

Peterson will likely be opposed by Braves breakout rookie Spencer Schwellenbach; this if Atlanta indeed opts for Sale over the rookie in game one of the series. Schwellenbach owns a 3.61 ERA on the season and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since July 21 (11 starts ago).

Wednesday becomes of even more significance to the Mets because there is a scenario where the Mets clinch a playoff berth. If the Mets win and the Braves lose on Sunday, their magic number drops to four. A win on Tuesday and Wednesday would give the Mets two additional games over the Braves in the standings, which would put them five up with five to go, and the Mets would hold the tiebreaker. This would mathematically eliminate the Braves from playoff contention, meaning the 2024 Mets would be October-bound.

While this is not the likely scenario, considering the Mets face Wheeler Sunday night while the Marlins appear to be running a bullpen game in their finale against the Braves, it would be the best one for the Mets.

In a nightmare scenario, where the Mets lose a game against the Braves on Sunday and lose game one of the series in Atlanta, this could be the game where the Braves can push ahead of the Mets in the standings. Whichever team wins two games of the series clinches the tiebreaker, which very well could decide which team goes to October and which one goes golfing.

Sean Manaea. Lucas Boland-Imagn Images

Thursday

Thursday will be Sean Manaea’s day, who is coming off a dazzling start in his Citi Field finale on Saturday, going seven strong innings with only two major blemishes, solo homers to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Manaea will face the final member of the trio of Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Max Fried or Charlie Morton, and might make the biggest start of the year for the Mets.

Considering the history of these two teams, their recent bouts in playoff pushes, recent Met heartbreak in Atlanta, and plenty of other factors, it is fair to assume that this game will be the most important of the three. It feels unlikely that either team would take the first two from the other, so the tiebreaker might be hanging in the balance come Thursday. Manaea has been the Mets’ ace in 2024 and will need to give one more ace-like performance to get the Mets across the finish line.

In terms of clinching, there is a lot at play here. Through a number of different ways, the Mets could clinch a playoff spot on Thursday. So long as the Mets end play on Thursday at least three games up and with the tiebreaker over Atlanta in hand, they are into October.

This could happen in a number of different ways, so going through scenarios is a tad useless. In the end, the Mets must win two of three from Atlanta to secure the season series and likely a playoff spot. Their best starter this year is set to go in the final game and will be opposed by a formidable foe on the other side.  Thursday, to most people, does not feel that far away. But to a Mets fan, getting to Thursday might take years off life, and the unknown of what Thursday could look like is crippling.

The Rest

After the Mets and Braves series, whatever the outlook may be for both teams, each team will have three games remaining. The Mets will travel out to Milwaukee, who, as mentioned above, seem to be poised for that third seed in the National League, and have their pitchers on limits.

Meanwhile, the Braves will welcome in Kansas City and face a Royals team who will likely still be in the thick of the American League wild card race. As of Sunday morning, the Royals occupy the second wild card spot, but are only one game from the Detroit Tigers who are the first team on the outside looking in. In all likelihood, these three games will be huge for Kansas City; a great sign for the Mets.

If the Diamondbacks still factor into the equation by Friday, they’ll closing their season versus the current first wild card team the San Diego Padres.

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