Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire of USA Today

Edwin Díaz‘s season-ending knee injury during the World Baseball Classic leaves the Mets bullpen one short as they prepare for the start of the 2023 season. Rumors are starting to resurface about a potential trade for Edwin’s younger brother and Cincinnati Reds reliever Alexis Díaz. The two teams discussed his availability last July, but the Mets feltEd the price to get him to Queens was too steep.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the combination of Kevin Parada and Alex Ramírez could be what it takes to get a deal done with the Reds. Parada, the Mets’ No. 3 prospect and Ramírez, their No. 4 prospect, are two pieces of the puzzle the organization does not want to part ways with.

Alexis Díaz showed a lot of promise in his rookie season, pitching to a 7-3 record with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.958 WHIP in 63 2/3 innings. The right-hander cannot become a free agent until 2028, so the Reds have quite a bit of team control with Díaz.

Even if the Mets are unable to agree to a deal for Díaz, the expectation is that they will be searching for upgrades in the bullpen as the season unfolds. Newly-signed David Robertson is expected to step into the ninth inning role, and former Tampa Bay Ray Brooks Raley is going be an important piece as the lone left-hander in the bullpen. Veteran Adam Ottavino did close a few games for the Mets last season on his way to posting a 2.06 ERA.

The Mets have some quality arms in the backend of their bullpen, but the loss of Edwin Díaz is one that is hard to recover from. Expect to see owner Steven Cohen and general manager Billy Eppler monitor this situation as the season goes on. 

The post What Would a Trade Package Look Like for Alexis Díaz? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Francisco Lindor. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

All is forgiven for Francisco Lindor following a terrific bounce-back season in his second year with the New York Mets. Thumbs down and boos gave way to cheers as Mr. Smiles lived up to the expectations of an all-around player and team leader. On a team that ranked fifth in the majors in runs scored, Lindor was the second-biggest driver of those runs, as expected when he signed his 10-year, $341 million extension.

Following Lindor’s 2021 season, the trade in which the Mets acquired him from Cleveland didn’t appear too great. Sure, Lindor played much better in the second half of the season and his underlying metrics indicated that he got somewhat unlucky. Still, a 100 OPS+ is not what the Mets had signed up for.

Let’s reexamine that trade again, two years later. How are both sides looking? Who “won” the trade?

The Prize: Lindor

Obviously, the impetus for this trade was Lindor. The Guardians knew they could not afford to retain him in free agency and therefore unloaded him for the best deal they could get.

In six seasons with Cleveland, Lindor slashed .285/.346/.488/.834, averaging 29 homers and 85 RBI per 162 games (he played 99 games in 2015 and 60 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, so he had the equivalent of five years of service time). His OPS+ was 118, and he compiled 28.1 bWAR.

Lindor’s first season with the Mets did not go as planned. He hit just .230/.322/.412/.734 with a dead-average OPS+ of 100. He totaled just 3.1 bWAR, the lowest total of his career (excluding the pandemic year).

Furthermore, because Lindor’s OPS was just .698 in the first half of the season while the Mets were still competitive, there was a perception that he could not handle the pressure of New York. In this area, Lindor did himself no favors when he and Javier Baez made the thumbs-down signal to each other in a game, signaling their defiance towards the fans’ displeasure.

Lindor also had stark splits between the Mets’ wins and losses in 2021. In 62 wins, he hit .288/.397/.550/.947, but in 63 losses, he hit .174/.273/.278/.521. His OPS+ was 124 in wins and 73 in losses. When the Mets were ahead in games, he hit .271/.357/.556/.914; when they were behind, he hit .195/.281/.289/.570. This also furthered the idea that Lindor could not hit in big spots to help the team get over the hump.

Ironically, Lindor hit significantly better at home than on the road in 2021, which means the home fans got to see the better version of him, at least. At home, he hit .244/.335/.453/.788, certainly not an ideal batting average but actually similar to his overall 2022 output in terms of OPS. On the road, though, those numbers went down to .216/.310/.370/.680. That puts into question the narrative that the pressure of New York was too much for him.

In 2022, though, Lindor returned to his old excellent form. His overall slash line of .270/.339/.449/.788 and 125 OPS+ understate his value to the Mets. He posted 5.4 bWAR and 6.8 fWAR, which do a better job of describing how much the Mets needed him, as those numbers led the team. He also put up 26 homers and 107 RBIs, bringing the power element to a team that needed it.

As described in a previous article, many of Lindor’s underlying metrics were actually worse in 2022 than 2021. However, they were also more in keeping with his career norms: not hitting the ball quite as hard or as high, but making good contact in the zone and outperforming some of his expected metrics.

It also cannot be overstated how much value Lindor brings the Mets as a switch hitter. They feel comfortable slotting him in at the top of the lineup regardless of the handedness of the pitcher since he can hit both ways. In 2022, Lindor was remarkably consistent from both sides of the plate, hitting .269/.343/.446/.789 from the left side and .271/.327/.457/.784 from the right. His ability to hit lefties was a huge boon for a team that struggled to find consistency vs. southpaws.

After one difficult season and one strong one, there is no way to know for certain where Lindor will head in 2023. However, he had already started to come on in the second half of 2021, which means he has posted a year and a half of Lindor-like numbers. The ZiPS projections forecast 6.1 fWAR for him in 2023.

So far, this part of the deal seems to be working out for the Mets.

Carlos Carrasco

The Mets were thrilled to receive Carlos Carrasco as part of the Lindor package. Cookie was coming off a bounce-back Covid year in which he posted a 2.91 ERA (3.79 xERA), 3.59 FIP, and 1.5 WAR in 68 innings across 12 starts. From 2014-18, Carrasco was a rock-solid starter, posting ERAs no higher than 3.63 and FIPs as low as 2.44. He had a rocky 2019 before his leukemia diagnosis, but rebounded in 2020.

However, Carrasco’s first year in orange and blue never really got off the ground. He missed the first three-and-a-half months of the season with various injuries. When he returned, he pitched just 53.2 innings across 12 starts, posting a 6.04 ERA, 67 ERA+, and a 5.22 FIP. He was particularly terrible against right-handed batters, allowing a .296/.347/.600/.947 line (155 OPS+) in his supposed platoon advantage.

In Carrasco’s second season with the Mets, he was penciled in as the fourth or fifth starter during spring training. He often functioned as a third starter during the season, though, due to injuries up and down the Mets rotation throughout the year.

On the surface, 2022 was another bounce-back season for Carrasco. He pitched 152 innings across 29 starts, posting a 3.97 ERA and 3.53 FIP. However, his 1.32 WHIP meant that he was working in and out of trouble every game. In addition, his 97 ERA+ indicates that he was slightly below average in ERA when adjusting for the ballparks he pitched in. He put up 2.4 fWAR, which is okay for a fifth starter.

Carrasco’s biggest asset as a pitcher was getting batters to chase pitches out of the zone, placing in the 94th percentile. He was also above average in whiff rate (65th percentile) and the spin on his curve (75th). However, his poor hard-hit rate (32nd) was one of the drivers of his high WHIP, which put pressure on his defense and led to many high-leverage pitching situations.

Overall, Carrasco’s part in the Lindor deal has been uneven. He battled injuries and poor performance in 2021, but the sum total of his performance in 2022 was close to what the Mets could have realistically expected from him at his age and given his career trajectory.

There has been some trade speculation about Carrasco this offseason. However, there does not appear to be anything imminent in the works. As of now, Carrasco will likely play out his one-year team option for $14 million in his age-36 season and then become a free agent.

The Mets would be thrilled if Carrasco can give them a repeat performance from last year. He once again enters spring training as the fifth starter. Given his age and injury history, along with the ages of the Mets’ other starters, the team will likely end up relying significantly on their starting pitching depth, including David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Elieser Hernández.

Carrasco’s ZiPS projection forecasts 140 innings pitched for Carrasco with a 4.35 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and 1.1 fWAR. The Mets would be happy with those innings numbers but hope for some better production. However, the amount of hard contact Carrasco allowed in 2022 would tend to indicate that his .337 BABIP was not fluky and will correlate with worse results as he continues to age.

Andrés Giménez

Many Mets fans liked Andrés Giménez, who displayed a plus glove and some intriguing hitting skills in his time with the Mets. However, a price had to be paid for Lindor, and New York now had two shortstops who were rendered redundant in Gimenez and Amed Rosario.

Giménez’s first season in Cleveland went far less swimmingly than even Lindor’s in New York. He hit .218/.282/.351/.633 in 210 plate appearances for the Guardians, posting a 74 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR while striking out 25.7% of the time. Defensively, he played a fine shortstop, posting 5 OAA and 4 DRS in 322 innings. He was not as good at second base, putting up -1 OAA and -2 DRS in 196 innings.

It appeared that Giménez was never going to make it as a hitter enough to develop as a starting-caliber middle infielder. However, he was still just in his age-23 season and had time to grow as a hitter.

2022 was a totally different story for the diminutive Giménez. In 146 games, a full starter’s slate, he made the All-Star team and looked like the player the Mets had seen glimpses of at times when he was a rookie. Giménez hit .297/.371/.466/.837 with 17 homers, 69 RBI, and 140 wRC+. His 6.1 fWAR was among the top for middle infielders.

Interestingly, Giménez’s Statcast numbers read somewhat similarly to Jeff McNeil‘s, as he recorded a .353 BABIP, which was identical to McNeil’s. He was also below average in both hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, although not quite as low as McNeil. The main difference is their batting eye and expected batting average: McNeil was in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate and the 91st in whiff rate, while Giménez was in the 56th and 39th in those areas, respectively.

Still, Giménez seems like a typical Mets prospect: a seeing-eye hitter who can hit it where the fielders aren’t. If he can keep that up, the Guardians will have gotten back a player who can make up for a lot of what they lost in Lindor. Indeed, Giménez’s 17 homers and .837 OPS show that he’s not even that far behind Lindor in the power department (if at all). Not bad at all for what was supposed to be a one-sided trade.

Of course, Giménez needs to show that he can sustain his success rather than be a one-year wonder. His ZiPS projection for 2023 is .266/.336/.416/.752 and 4.9 fWAR, which is a significant drop-off from his 2022 height (although still solid). However, since ZiPS takes into account the previous three seasons in the projection, Giménez can outperform it significantly if 2022 was a true breakout.

Amed Rosario 

The other major leaguer involved in the deal was Amed Rosario, another shortstop who had shown flashes of potential with the Mets. However, after a strong finish to 2019, Rosario reverted back to his high-strikeout, low-contact prior ways in 2020.

Rosario has been just about an average player for Cleveland in both of his seasons with them. His slash lines of .282/.321/.409/.730 and .283/.312/.403/.715 are about what you’d expect from a player with his hitting profile. He posted an identical WAR of 2.4 and wRC+ of 99 and 103, respectively. That is pretty much textbook average.

Statcast metrics for Rosario are all over the map. He doesn’t hit the ball that hard (41st percentile in hard-hit rate and 39th in average exit velocity) or barrel many balls (18th) and his chase rate is terrible (4th), but his whiff rate is above average (74th) and he did not strike out a lot in 2022 (79th). His batting eye has seemingly improved since his days with the Mets, but the results aren’t all that different.

Rosario placed in the second percentile in OAA in 2022, which makes him a very poor defensive shortstop.

Overall, Rosario is a competent major-league starter who seems unlikely to develop into anything more than that. His defense is a liability that lowers his value, but his hitting is good enough to keep him in the lineup. He was a decent complementary piece for Giménez in the deal.

OF Isaiah Greene and RHP Josh Wolf

These two were minor leaguers of little consequence for the Mets. Both were in A-ball in 2022. Isaiah Greene hit .226/.393/.340/.733 in 114 minor league games last season. Josh Wolf had an ERA over 6.00 between rookie ball and Class-A. They are 21 and 20 years old, respectively, so there may be some time for them to develop, but neither appeared on the Guardians’ MLB.com top 30 prospects list in 2022.

Who Won the Trade?

After two years, the Mets still received the biggest star of the deal. Lindor’s combination of power, defense, clutch hitting, speed, and leadership cannot be underestimated. He has a solid history of above-average play. Carrasco also provided the Mets with value.

However, this trade has not turned out quite as one-sided as it appeared at the time, at least as of now. Giménez had a year that rivaled Lindor’s in many areas. Rosario is almost as serviceable a hitter as Carrasco is a pitcher, and he’s 27 years old to Cookie’s near-36.

I believe that each side is likely satisfied with what they have. Should the Guardians have gotten a higher-ceiling prospect than Rosario in return for one of the best shortstops in the league? Likely, but they did not have leverage due to their noted inability to pay Lindor and the influx of top shortstops hitting the free-agent market the following offseason. Considering that trade position, if Giménez can sustain his 2022 success, it will truly be a win for the Guardians, as well.

The one regret that the Mets might end up having is giving up Giménez instead of Ronny Mauricio. At the time, Mauricio was considered the Mets’ second-best prospect, as he was No. 67 on MLB.com’s top 100 list in 2021. It was quite the coup not to have to give him up for Lindor. However, Mauricio has now fallen out of the top 100 (although he is still on Keith Law’s list at No. 87), and there are questions about his long-term prospects in the majors.

Hindsight is always 20-20, but imagine this Mets team with Lindor at shortstop, Gimenez at second, and McNeil in left field (or wherever else the Mets chose to place him on any given day). Still, you’ll hear few complaints from Mets fans who have their second- or third-best hitter locked down for a decade.

We’ll continue to revisit this trade as the years go by. For now, consider Steve Cohen’s first big splash with the Mets a good one.

The post A Look Back At Mets’ Trade for Francisco Lindor, Two Years Later appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Justin Verlander and Steve Cohen, Photo by Ed Delany

It’s been well documented that 2023 will be a year of significant on-field changes for Major League Baseball. This season, we will see the debut of larger bases, pitch clocks, and shift restrictions, as well as an encore performance of increased enforcement of the balk rule.

Now, MLB has taken a step toward what may be sweeping changes in the game’s revenue structure and is planting seeds that the idea of a salary cap may be back on the table for the next round of collective bargaining agreement negotiations before the 2027 season.

Local Broadcasting Rights May Change

Let’s start with possible changes in how teams earn television money. There are two components to this. Teams share national television income equally, as networks pay for broadcast rights to the postseason, weekly national telecasts (FOX, ESPN, TBS), and the All-Star game. Clubs then sell the broadcast rights to the remainder of their games to local sports networks, and the amount of revenue available from this varies significantly by market size and the terms of the negotiated contract.

In an article in The Athletic by Evan Drellich, the author discusses that owners, while most are never happy with the disparity in local income, have become even more frustrated lately as the gulf between the revenues of large and small market teams has recently widened. Now there is a new element in the mix. Diamond Sports Group, which carries Bally’s regional sports networks (RSNs), may soon file for bankruptcy. DSG bought the local rights to the games of 14 MLB teams: the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers.

If DSG does file for bankruptcy, Commissioner Rob Manfred has decreed that the show must go on. From the cited article, Manfred recently said, “We got to find a new model. Maybe we ought to be driving the boat, what that model looks like. So, that’s the new challenge.” The reference here is that MLB may step in to ensure its product is available for fans, and generating local revenue. To do this, MLB may take on the task of digitally producing the games and securing local advertising dollars, then centrally (and equitably) distributing those revenues to the teams whose games are in scope.

Bingo! In the eyes of MLB, a DSG bankruptcy may be a blessing. For at least many teams, local income can be even, and literally put them on the same financial playing field. (No one has figured out if teams will actually spend that money on players in the same way, but one thing at a time). From the article, here’s Manfred’s summary: “I think that people see it as an opportunity to rethink the revenue side of the house a little bit, which has been hard in our sport. People entrenched in their local (media dynamics).”

An Economic Reform Committee

Evening out revenue may be only the tip of the economic change iceberg. MLB has recently put together an “economic reform committee.” The idea, according to Manfred, is the get the thirty teams talking to each other about what does and does not work in the game. Mark Walter of the Dodgers is reportedly chairing the economic reform committee. Chris Ilitch of the Tigers, John Henry of the Red Sox and Dick Monfort of the Rockies are among the members of the new committee as well.

From the outside, it seems that this committee is getting ready to propose an economic overhaul to the players in the next CBA negotiations after the 2026 season. It could be a more complete revue-sharing model (teams share only a portion of revenues now), or all of this could be setting the stage for the owners to insist on a salary cap (which seems more and more likely). The players have adamantly refused to even consider a cap in the past, and would likely take that position again, even if the owners included a proposal for a spending floor. It all seems to add up from the owners’ side. More teams share revenues, then all cooperate on the distribution side via a cap. This could be baseball Armageddon on the horizon.

Manfred’s quote from the article makes all of this sound like more than just speculation.

“When you start thinking about the opportunities in terms of a more national (broadcasting) product, it did lead into a conversation about our disparity issues on the revenue side,” Manfred said. “We have businesses that are literally not similar in terms of the overall revenue that they’re generating. And to the extent that you could find a new distribution model that actually helped on that disparity side, that would be the daily double. So people are having conversations that haven’t been had in baseball, and it’s really been owners talking to owners, which is a good thing.”

How much does Mets’ owner Steve Cohen, and his aggressive spending, factor into this? The Mets’ current payroll projection is $370 million, an MLB record and well past the final tier for the highest luxury tax, which this year is $293 million. The commissioner may be acting now via the committee to get as many owners on board for a cap as possible. There needs to be 23 owners in favor to make a salary cap proposal. Then, of course, the players need to agree. Drellich quotes a Steve Cohen rival executive as saying:

“Owners are now beginning to dislike each other, not just personally, but the economics of the game is something that you’re gonna have to work through. But it’s not coming till ’26. They’re not reopening the collective bargaining agreement. But … they’re working on the new CBA. Now.

“And that may sound early to you, but it’s not. And the reason they’re working on it now is they’ve got to come up with solutions to get to 23 (votes). Because if they had a vote on a CBA today, given what Steve Cohen’s done, given what the league looks like, here’s a little terrible fact: They don’t have the votes. And that’s a scary thing if you’re the commissioner.”

Would Cohen support a salary cap in baseball? From Tim Healy on Twitter:

Would Steve Cohen support a salary cap?

Cohen: "I’m not going to say for now. I would need to understand the underlying rules behind it. But the answer is I’ll make that decision when we get there."

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) February 20, 2023

Here’s a quick summary:

• MLB may start regulating local television revenue by taking over broadcast rights if a large RSN group defaults on its payments, resulting in bankruptcy.
• MLB wants to change and standardize local revenue (the above gives the opportunity on a large scale), and may seek to standardize financial distribution to the players (i.e. salary cap).
• Steve Cohen may be the impetus for moving on these changes, which have been sought for a while.
• Let’s hope all of this is figured out by 2027, because the owners are moving toward a salary cap, which would make prior labor disputes seem like petty squabbles.

The actual fight–between owners themselves and between owners and players–around MLB’s economic structure is years away, but the warm-up for that bout is undoubtedly starting in 2023.

The post MLB Will Look Into Changing Revenue Structure appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Steve Cohen might be vacationing in Hawaii, but the Mets owner still had an early Christmas gift for Mets fans early Wednesday morning. After his deal with the Giants fell through, the Mets swooped in and reportedly will sign Carlos Correa to a 12-year deal worth $315 million. Correa joins the likes of Edwin Díaz , Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, David Robertson, José Quintana, and Kodai Senga as players the Mets have signed this offseason. Correa will become the Mets everyday third baseman with Francisco Lindor staying at short.

Correa is a significant improvement both offensively and defensively over the Mets 2022 starter at third, Eduardo Escobar. The former World Series Champion is only 27 years old and still has his several years of his prime in front of him, despite already being so accomplished. Last season in Minnesota, Correa slashed .291/.366./.467 and hit 22 home runs in 136 games. Correa’s 140 OPS+ in 2022 would have been tied with Jeff McNeil for second-best on Mets, behind only Pete Alonso‘s 146.

With Correa now in the fold, the Mets lineup is completely stacked. Here’s a rough estimate of what the team could look like on Opening Day against the Marlins.

1. CF Brandon Nimmo
2. RF Starling Marte
3. SS Fransisco Lindor
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5. 3B Carlos Correa
6. 2B Jeff McNeil
7. DH Daniel Vogelbach/Eduardo Escobar
8. LF Mark Canha
9. C Omar Narváez/Tomás Nido

Here is another possible configuration depending on how Buck Showalter wants to play it:

1. Nimmo
2. Correa
3. Lindor
4. Alonso
5. McNeil
6. Marte
7. Vogelbach/Escobar
8. Canha
9. Narváez/Nido

Either way (or any other way you want to configure it really), the Mets are going to give opposing pitchers nightmares every single night.

Correa instantly solves many of the Mets’ issues from last season by adding an elite hitter in the middle of their lineup. Correa was worth nearly four-and-a-half wins above replacement last season. He hit righties (.289) nearly as good as lefties (.299) and hit the ball hard nearly 45% of the time, better than any Mets regular last season except Alonso.

Accounting for his position change, Correa’s offensive stats would also rank him among the best offensive third baseman in the majors.

Carlos Correa had a 136 wRC+ over the last two seasons, that would rank fourth behind only José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Rafael Devers for qualified third baseman during that span.

— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) December 21, 2022

With Correa now signed, Escobar and his $9.5 million salary could become a trade candidate. However, if the Mets hold on to him, he would give them another possible option at DH to split time with Daniel Vogelbach bolstering the team’s depth and bench. Francisco Álvarez, the No. 1 prospect in baseball,  could also factor into the lineup at catcher/DH which would raise the team’s offensive ceiling even more.

While the Mets had a great lineup for most of last season, their flaws were on full display in a division-deciding series late in the year against the Braves and in the playoffs against the Padres. However, with the rest of the 2022 group back and Correa now slotted in at third, there are few, if any lineups that are better in the major leagues.

The post What Does the Mets Lineup Look Like With Carlos Correa? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo: Ed Delany, Metsmerized Online

It is the morning after the night before and life after Jacob deGrom starts now for the New York Mets, who face a plethora of key decisions that will define their offseason and perhaps the entire 2023 campaign.

The dust still hasn’t settled on the blockbuster news that deGrom has opted to take his talents elsewhere in free agency, signing a five-year, $185 million contract with the Texas Rangers. The deal also includes a conditional sixth-year option and a full no-trade clause. It is a significant transaction for the Rangers who are just a year removed from spending a combined $500 million on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

While the possibility of deGrom playing elsewhere always loomed large this winter, the fact that it has now become reality leaves a lot of question marks for the Mets who must now proceed ahead without their face of the franchise and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

There are two sides to this too. Firstly, there’s the emotional aspect of what unfolded on Friday. There was no doubt that deGrom was the face of this organization and he was meant to be a forever Met. He was meant to carry this franchise to World Series wins and retire as a Met before going to the Hall of Fame. Drafted and developed by this team, deGrom leaving was always going to be a sad day and that melancholy feeling will linger for a while.

However, baseball is a business and it became clear early on that the Mets had a number in mind they were willing to go to and not exceed when it came to term. Ultimately, the Rangers, who are desperate to exit baseball purgatory, were determined to give deGrom the entire world and more and the length of the deal and the mega bucks was what ultimately made the ace starter’s decision for him. Sports is a cold, ruthless business and that has to be remembered this weekend.

As for what is next, the possibilities are endless for the Mets. Their biggest priority heading into the Winter Meetings on Sunday will be to replace deGrom with an elite arm that can pair with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the front office seem very interested in bringing three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander to New York.

Verlander, who was teammates with Scherzer in Detroit with the Tigers, is coming off a stellar 2022 season in which he won the American League Cy Young and a World Series, and he seems built to thrive on the big stage in New York. While he will be 40 in 2023, Verlander would certainly be equipped to help the Mets win next year and perhaps even the year after that. His MLB best 1.75 ERA in 2022 proves that the veteran still has plenty good baseball left in him.

If not Verlander, then the Mets also remain engaged with Carlos Rodón who is much younger at 29 and who has put together two elite years with both the Chicago White Sox and then the San Francisco Giants. With deGrom now officially a figure of the past for this team, it does seem as though one of Verlander or Rodón will end up pitching in Queens in 2023. Which one remains to be seen for now.

General manager Billy Eppler has also spoken with Japanese star Kodai Senga, one of the most intriguing free agents available this winter, with the rest of the rotation also needing rebuilding. Outside of Scherzer, only Carlos Carrasco is a nailed on certainty for the Mets next year and the likes of Senga, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi could all make very good middle-of-the-rotation starters. There is also the possibility that the front office could look to bring back Chris Bassitt after a very solid first year in Queens in 2022.

Andy Martino of SNY has reported that the Mets are determined to sign one of Verlander or Rodòn, then a middle-of-the-rotation starter from the next category of pitchers below the elite level. With that in mind, it does seem as though pitching is the most pressing priority for the front office this offseason.

Despite signing elite closer Edwin Diaz to a record-breaking and historic five-year, $102 million contract earlier this offseason, the bullpen also needs rebuilding and Eppler must right his wrongs from the trade deadline by actually going out and acquiring a high-leverage lefty arm. There are options out there, including the likes of Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore.

Outside of pitching, the biggest question mark left facing this team is whether or not they want to bring Brandon Nimmo back to Queens and sign him to a big-ticket, multi-year deal. Nimmo established himself as an elite leadoff hitter in 2023, he really set the tone for the offense and he improved his glove in the field. Plus, like deGrom, Nimmo was a respected figure within the clubhouse and losing two leaders in the same offseason could be tough.

Should Nimmo leave, the Mets would need to add another bat to the lineup and they could bring back a familiar face in Michael Conforto, while former Rookie of the Year and MVP Cody Bellinger could also be an intriguing option on a one-year, prove-it type deal. When it comes to the DH spot, it has been reported that the front office will address that internally with a number of prospects ready to compete at the major league level.

Overall, deGrom leaving was very much a business decision and while it marks the end of an era for both team and player, the show must go on for the Mets. They can not sit in a chair and waste time being sentimental and reminiscing about a lost friend, instead they must now turn the page and get right back to business because life after deGrom starts now and what this team does over the coming days and weeks will shape what lies ahead in 2023 and beyond.

The post What Life Could Look Like For The Mets After Jacob DeGrom appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

As we approach the conclusion of the World Series and thus the 2022 MLB seas0n, all eyes are geared towards the offseason.

After a disappointing finish to a promising 101-win campaign, general manager Billy Eppler and the Mets front office now have to find a way to make sure the team replicates their regular season prowess in 2023, while also keeping potential postseason success in mind.

With that, let’s take a look at some important offseason dates.

Nov. 6/7: Eligible players can file for free agency the day after the World Series, but can only sign with their previous team during an initial five-day period before entering contract talks with another club. This stretch could prove to be pivotal for the Mets in their quest to sign players such as Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo and Jacob deGrom.

Nov. 7: The three finalists for each BBWAA Award are announced. Manager Buck Showalter is likely to be one of the nominees for National League Manager of the Year.

Nov. 7-10: The annual GM meetings will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada. While not quite as eventful as the Winter Meetings, this congregation of baseball minds allows the hot stove to get cooking and also is used to address administrative matters.

Nov. 10/11: The fifth day following the end of the World Series represents the deadline for a team to offer the qualifying offer ($19.65 million) to eligible players. If a player is offered the QO, they have 10 days to make a decision on whether or not to accept it. DeGrom, Díaz, Nimmo, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt are all candidates to receive it from the Mets.

Nov. 11/12: Free agents are officially able to negotiate and sign with any team.

Nov. 14: Rookie of the Year winners announced.

Nov. 15: Manager of the Year winners announced.

Nov. 16: Cy Young Award winners announced.

Nov. 17: MVP Award winners announced.

Nov. 18: Deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in preparation of the Rule 5 Draft.

Nov. 21/22: Players must make the decision to accept or decline the qualifying offer by this date.

Dec. 2: Deadline to tender a contract to players with under six years of service time. Players that are non-tendered become free agents.

Dec. 4-7: Winter Meetings take place in San Diego, California.

Dec. 7: Rule 5 Draft

Jan. 13: Both teams and arbitration-eligible players must submit salary figures by this date. Eight Mets are arbitration-eligible this offseason, although that number would dwindle to seven if Daniel Vogelbach’s team option is picked up for 2023. The full list of Mets that are arbitration-eligible are: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Luis Guillorme, Tomas Nido, Dominic Smith, Joey Lucchesi and Vogelbach.

The post Important Offseason Dates as Mets Look Ahead To 2023 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest problems with the Mets’ front office turnover over the last three offseasons is the inability to lock up any of their homegrown players to long-term deals before they hit free agency. Brandon Nimmo and Seth Lugo will test the market this year, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto and Zack Wheeler have done the same previously with varying success.

But now with Billy Eppler & Co. in place as the offseason starts, the Mets can look to extend two of their best players with just two years of team control remaining: Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil. There isn’t a huge debate about whether or not they Mets should try to lock these two down beyond the next two years, so let’s talk about what extensions could look for these 2022 All-Stars.

Pete Alonso

Since Alonso debuted in 2019, no first baseman has more home runs (143) and RBIs (380). Only Freddie Freeman has played in more games. He also has the third-highest wRC+ (138) and total runs scored (310). This has culminated in Alonso having the sixth-highest fWAR (12.1) in that time among MLB first baseman. The reason he’s not higher, given his first-class offensive numbers? His defense.

As much as Alonso has improved defensively, he still ranks as one of the bottom-tier defensive first basemen in MLB across multiple metrics (defensive fWAR, UZR, OAA).

So when looking at an extension, part of what the Mets may consider is how much longer Alonso will be an everyday first baseman? You’d assume by the time Alonso hits his early-to-mid 30s, he won’t be playing the position every day.

The same might be able to said of Matt Olson, the Braves’ first baseman who signed an eight-year, $168 million contract extension with the team after they acquired him from Oakland. Olson signed that extension a couple weeks before his 28th birthday. Alonso turns 28 in December. The two have extremely similar numbers over the last four seasons with regards to OBP (.349 for Alonso, .344 for Olson), BABIP (.274 for both) and OPS (.884 for Alonso, .852 for Olson). Alonso has out-homered him by 26 and knocked in 33 more runs than Olson.

If you look elsewhere, Freddie Freeman just got $162 million over six years from the Dodgers at 32 years old. He’s better than Alonso in most facets of the game, so $27 million average annual value is the high end of what Alonso could get. (Paul Goldschmidt‘s $26 million AAV is also probably a bit large when comparing him to Alonso.) Olson’s $21 million AAV is probably more in line of what Alonso should get.

Alonso is projected to earn close to $16 million in arbitration in 2022, then if Alonso performs even to averages in 2023, he might earn above $25 million in arbitration in 2024. You need to factor that into an extension. So, on top of two years and roughly $40 million to $45 million, would you give Alonso another five years and $100 million, for a total of seven years and $145 million? That’s $20.7 million per year.

Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil’s extension is fun. Is he a massive power hitter who puts up gaudy numbers? No. Did he just win the 2022 batting title with spraying the ball everywhere, log at least 90 innings at three defensive positions, and put up more fWAR than any other second baseman in the league? Yes.

McNeil will be 31 as the 2023 season starts, and he won’t be a free agent until right before his age-33 season. Nevertheless, an extension comes down to how much you trust McNeil’s bat. After righting the ship in 2022 after a rough 2021, McNeil now has high-level results in three of his first four full seasons. (His slash line from 2022 is eerily similar to his 2020 line, no matter how you think that season went.)

Someone who may be useful to compare McNeil to is Justin Turner.

Through their age 27 to 30 seasons, here is how McNeil and Turner compare:

• OPS: .824 for McNeil, .817 for Turner
• BA/OBP/SLG: .304/.368/.456 vs. .300/.362/.455
• WAR per 100 PAs: 0.76 vs. 0.75
• K%: 12.2% vs. 16.1%
• BB%: 6.9% vs. 7.2%
• HR%: 2.4% vs. 2.3%
• HR/FB: 6.0% vs. 6.1%

Turner joined the Dodgers for his age-30 season and has been with them since. They were able to unlock Turner’s power, and in the four season after (age 31 to 34), he started walking more, striking out less, and a lot more of his fly balls turned into home runs. Despite a checkered injury history, he’s been a reliable four-win player throughout his early and mid-30s

This isn’t to say McNeil will have Turner’s exact path as a professional, but I think McNeil is certainly capable of being adaptable. Don’t let the 2021 season lead you astray. As teams shift less severely in 2023 (by rule), we might see McNeil try to add more power to his game rather than slap the ball into smaller infield holes. It’s hard to project what players will be as they age, but I think Turner is a good comp. McNeil might have a bit more defensive versatility than Turner did has he aged.

Turner became a free agent before his age-32 season, and he signed a four-year, $64 million with the Dodgers. McNeil, however, has two years of arbitration left before free agency ahead of his age-33 season. He’ll earn around $6.5 million in 2023 through arbitration, and with standards raises, he’d earn around $13 million in 2024. Let’s call that $20 million over two years. If we want to get to closer to $16 million per year for Turner as a comp, we can add another $30 million on top of that over two years and call it four years and $50 million. We’re just spitballing here. Maybe you add another year with a team option to bring it up to five years and $65 million.

McNeil was nearly six wins better than a replacement player at his positions this year. If the Mets feel that his bat will age well–something they’ve failed to do with the likes of Turner, Daniel Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud and others–they should try to lock him down for the rest of his productive career.

The post What Would Extending Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil Look Like? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The 2022 World Series is almost set. Both the Philadelphia Phillies, surprisingly, and the more believable, Houston Astros, are each one win away.

The Phillies marched to a thrilling 10-6 victory Saturday, thanks in large part to an electric performances by Rhys Hoskins (2 HRs, 4 RBI) and Bryce Harper (2-for-4, 2 RBI). This increased their series lead to 3-1 over the San Diego Padres. A World Series appearance would be the team’s first since 2009 (loss against the Yankees).

Meanwhile, the Astros continued their domination over the New York Yankees. They shutout the Yankees, 5-0, on Saturday. Gerrit Cole allowed five runs, three earned, over five innings of work in the loss. This would be the Astros  fourth World Series appearance since 2017 (have won one over that span).

Game 5: San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 2:37 P.M. ET – Series 3-1, Philadelphia 

Besides a hiccup in Game 2, the Phillies have relatively controlled the series against San Diego. There is some rain in the forecast this afternoon in South Philadelphia, though, if the game gets in, it is very possible there is bedlam in the City of Brotherly Love by evening’s end.

Today, Philadelphia will turn to one of their two aces, Zack Wheeler (2-1, 1.40 ERA), to get the job done. Wheeler pitched in Game 1 of the series and turned in seven dominant innings. He struck out eight and only allowed one hit. It resulted in a 2-0 Phillies win.

In that same game, the Padres pitched their ace, Yu Darvish (2-1, 2.84 ERA). Darvish also pitched well. He threw seven innings, allowing three hits (two home runs), two runs, and struck out 7. Expect a very low-scoring game in Philadelphia today, much like Game 1 when each of these pitchers faced eachother on October 18.

Padres Lineup

Game 5. Let's go. #CaptureTheMoment pic.twitter.com/U2w9rkcsD2

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 23, 2022

Phillies Lineup

You wanna do it again? #RingTheBell

📺: @FS1
📻: @SportsRadioWIP pic.twitter.com/fDEzNxcIUq

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 23, 2022

Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Game 4: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees, 7:07 P.M. ET – Series 3-0, Houston

The Astros have dominated the Yankees thus far. They have outscored New York, and their lowly offense, 12-4 over the three-game period. The Yankees’ offense is completely lifeless at the worst possible time. As mentioned, a Houston victory in the Bronx later tonight, can send the Yankees home short of a World Series appearance yet again.

To extend the series, the Yankees will have to hit off Lance McCullers. McCullers has made one start this postseason, a six-inning, two-hitter against the Seattle Mariners. He held Seattle off the board and struck out seven in the appearance.

Meanwhile, the Yankees will throw Nestor Cortes (1-0, 2.70 ERA) in the do-or-die Game 4. Cortes, who turned in a wonderful regular season, got hit around a bit in his two starts against Cleveland, though, only allowed three runs total. He made two five-inning starts, allowing a total of nine hits, and struck out a total of five. Though, as mentioned, only allowed three runs. He got the job done each time.

Astros Lineup: pending

Yankees Lineup: pending

The post Game Threads: Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros Look To Advance appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The theme of the New York Mets offseason this year could certainly be change as the franchise has double-digit free agents that includes most of their 2022 bullpen. And we aren’t just talking about quantity, it’s the best closer in baseball and two of the Mets other high-leverage arms from the 2022 season.

MMO reported on Wednesday that getting closer Edwin Díaz a new deal to stay with the Mets is one of the team’s top priorities and that they would like to get it done before he hits free agency. Certainly makes sense for a team that will need to add/re-sign a ton of arms only to get their pitching back to where it was during the 2022 season.

Let’s take a look at all the Mets’ free agent relievers:

• Edwin Díaz
• Seth Lugo
• Adam Ottavino
• Joely Rodriguez
• Trevor May
• Trevor Williams
• Tommy Hunter
• Potentially Mychal Givens – mutual option for 2023

That leaves Drew Smith and Stephen Nogosek as the only two relievers under contract for 2023 that pitched at least 20 innings out of the pen this season.

Díaz is obviously the big fish here coming off a season in which he posted a 1.31 ERA and had the third-highest strikeout percentage in MLB history at 50.2%. However, Ottavino played a vital role in the Mets’ pen as well with a 2.06 and a team-high 65 2/3 relief innings. Lugo provided 65 innings of solid relief as well with his 3.60 ERA.

Rodríguez finished strong in his lone season with the Mets in which he tossed 50 innings. May looked like himself again to end the season with a 3.24 ERA in 18 games following a stint on the injured list. Even Hunter provided quality innings at times with a 2.42 ERA in 18 games.

One of the unsung heroes of the Mets 2022 season was certainly Trevor Williams. The right-hander started nine games, finished five, and made 30 overall appearances this season. He had a 3.21 ERA and pitched the sixth most innings on the team with 89 1/3. Since coming over in the trade that also netted the Mets Javier Baez and sent prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs last trade deadline, Williams has a 3.17 ERA in 122 innings in New York.

The type of versatile pitcher that Williams is will be an important piece for 2023 with the free agent relievers I mentioned and the fact that up to four members of the Mets’ 2022 rotation could be free agents this offseason as well.

This offseasons free agent reliever class isn’t one booming with a ton of quality arms so it will be important for the Mets to bring back at least a couple of the aforementioned relievers that pitched well for them in 2022 and Díaz feels like a must.

The post Mets’ Bullpen Could Look Different in 2023 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets have a large group of pending free agents this offseason.

While the class is headlined by Jacob deGrom – who is expected to opt-out of his $30.5 million option – they’ll have to rebuild the majority of their bullpen.

Here’s a quick breakdown of who is a UFA or has a player, club, or mutual option for next season by position.

1B
Daniel Vogelbach^

OF
Brandon Nimmo
Tyler Naquin

SP
Jacob deGrom*
Carlos Carrasco
Taijuan Walker*
Chris Bassitt *^

RP
Trevor May
Adam Ottavino
Seth Lugo
Trevor Williams
Mychal Givens *^

*Player Option
^Club Option
*^Mutual Option

The Mets could have an entirely new pitching staff. Four of your five core starters are up and five key members of your bullpen are as well.

Decisions on all options must be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series.

Nimmo is eligible to receive a qualifying offer. The unrestricted free agent has no obligation to accept but can if he feels his market is not robust enough. He’s an obvious candidate to receive one.

Bassitt and Diaz are also eligible to receive the QO. They’ll likely be extended ones as well. If Walker turns down his player option he will be eligible to receive one.

Spotrac.com has the Mets payroll for 2023 set at $219 million with options for deGrom, Bassitt, Walker, Given, and Vogelback picked up along with a $14 million qualifying offer given to Carrasco. Arbitration numbers are not included. Robinson Cano‘s $20.25 million retained salary is.

How much will the Mets spend? Can they find comparable talent at a lesser price? It will be a humongous offseason in Queens with a lot of parts needing to come together.

The post Mets Roster Will Look Very Different Next Season appeared first on Metsmerized Online.