Devers and Boston were seemingly at odds, as there were several reports before the season began, then again in the early parts of the year, that Devers was unhappy with how Boston was treating him positionally. There is no doubt Devers is a superstar at the plate, as the nine-year Red Sox infielder owns an .858 career OPS. The 28-year-old is off to a strong start this season as well, with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs, and a .400 on-base percentage to go along with an .894 OPS.

In exchange, Boston is getting flamethrower Jordan Hicks, who began his career with St. Louis as a reliever, and has struggled mightily on the surface this season, posting a 6.47 ERA across nine starts and 13 overall appearances. Luckily, for Boston, his 3.86 xERA indicates he is due for a lot of positive regression. Hicks, 28 years old, carries a $11 million hit to the 40-man competitive balance payroll through the end of 2027.

The second major-league level player Boston is getting is starting pitcher Kyle Harrison. Harrison, only 23 years old, only has 182 2/3 innings of major-league experience under his belt. Over these innings, he owns a 4.48 ERA and 4.56 FIP. Specifically, this season, he has made four starts for the Giants, eight appearances overall, posting a 4.56 ERA and an almost identical 4.58 xERA. Across 23 2/3 innings, he has 25 strikeouts. Given his age, he has several more seasons of team control.

Boston also picked up two prospects in James Tibbs and Jose Bello.

James Tibbs, 22 years old, was a first-round pick of the Giants in 2024. He was playing High-A ball this season, slashing .245/.377/.480, good for a strong .857 OPS to go along with 12 homers and 32 RBIs. He has exclusively played the corner outfield positions this season. The former Florida State Seminole has a career .783 OPS in the minor leagues.

Jose Bello, only 20 years old, is a right-handed pitcher that was signed as an international free agent. In the Arizona Complex League this season, Bello has only allowed four earned runs across 18 innings (2.00 ERA). Across those innings, he has struck out 28 and only walked three. He owns a career minor-league ERA of 2.97.

According to Baseball America, Tibbs was the Giants No. 3 ranked prospect while Bello was unranked. However, one would expect, with continued strong play from Bello, he would easily of cracked the Giants top 30 when Baseball America updated their rankings midseason.

The post Murray: Giants Acquire Star Rafael Devers From Red Sox In Blockbuster appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

If you turned Friday night’s game off after the seventh inning, you were in for a rude awakening this morning. The Mets were looking good early last night. They got a solid start from Christian Scott, the offense scored six runs off of three homers, and Edwin Díaz had a solid inning of relief.

Then the wheels came off. The Giants scored five runs in the 8th inning to the take lead. The Mets loaded the bases in the ninth, and scored one, but couldn’t score the tying run thanks to a great defensive play by the Giants. The Mets could have easily won most if not all of the games they’ve played in the last week. They haven’t, and now they are a season-worst eight games under .500. Can the Mets turn things around today?

Photo by Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Mets Lineup

1. Francisco Lindor – SS
2. Pete Alonso – 1B
3. Brandon Nimmo – LF
4. J.D. Martinez – DH
5. DJ Stewart – LF
6. Starling Marte – RF
7. Jeff McNeil – 2B
8. Brett Baty – 3B
9. Omar Narváez– C

Luis Severino has made nine starts totaling 51 2/3 innings this year with a 3.48 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.219 WHIP, and a 110 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start in Miami where he allowed five runs from six hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. Only one of his starts in May has been good and overall he has a 5.94 ERA, 5.47 FIP this month over 16 2/3 innings. The Giants have the following career numbers against him:

• Patrick Bailey 0-3
• Matt Chapman 2-16, 2 BB, 4 K
• Thairo Estrada 1-2
• Wilmer Flores 0-4, 3 K
• Ryan McKenna 0-2, K
• Jorge Soler 1-6, 3 K
• LaMonte Wade Jr.L0-2, K
• Mike Yastrzemski 1-2, K

Opposing Lineup

1. Luis Matos – CF
2. Thairo Estrada – 2B
3. Patrick Bailey – DH
4. Matt Chapman – 3B
5. Wilmer Flores – 1B
6. Mike Yastrzemski – RF
7. Heliot Ramos – LF
8. Curt Casali – C
9. Brett Wisely – SS

The Mets bats will try to keep their home streak alive against Jordan Hicks. Hicks signed with the Giants in the off-season who transitioned him from flamethrowing reliever into a starter and what a move it has turned out to be. Over 10 starts and 53 innings, this season, Hicks has a 2.38 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.113 WHIP, and a 162 ERA+. He’s coming off a start where he allowed only one earned run over five innings. That being said he’s been a bit more hit-able this month allowing 10 runs, eight earned, over four starts from 21 hits.

The Mets faced Hicks in relief in back-to-back games in 2023. Hicks held the Mets to one hit over two innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Hicks:

• Pete Alonso 1-3
• Harrison Bader 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-3, BB, 3 K
• Starling Marte 2-10, K
• J.D. Martinez 0-1, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-4, 2B
• Omar Narváez 0-1, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-6, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Game Notes

• The Mets have recorded three home runs in three straight games. The Mets have accomplished this feat eight times in franchise history. The last time the Mets recorded three or more home runs in three consecutive games was from September 2-5, 2023. The franchise record is four straight games with three or more home runs, accomplished from July 1-4, 2004. New York hit 13 home runs in that span.
• LHP David Peterson made a rehab start for the Syracuse Mets yesterday. The southpaw allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits with one walk and six strikeouts over 4.0 innings of work. He threw 89 pitches in the outing. Over six rehab appearances, Peterson posted a 1.14 ERA (3 ER/23.2 IP) with three walks and 35 strikeouts. He is currently on the 60-day IL recovering from left hip surgery.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded multiple hits in three straight games and four of his last five contests. He is batting .348 (8-23) with three runs, three doubles, two home runs with a .375 OBP, and a .478 SLG in that span.

Three Things To Watch For

1. The Mets did it again! Friday night was the third straight game the Mets have hit three homers. They have lost all three games. Teams that hit three homers in a game have an over 70% chance of winning (according to the WCBS880 booth on Wednesday). What the Mets have done is improbable and also just speaks to the frustration overall surrounding the team right now. Here’s hoping the power surge continues for a fourth straight game but with a different final result for the Mets.
2. Will the Mets Click? Friday night the bullpen allowed six runs. Wednesday the bullpen allowed three runs. The Mets lost both of those games. Tuesday the bullpen allowed only one run, but Houser allowed six. The Mets lost by a run. On Monday the bullpen and starting pitching together allowed only three runs, but the Mets scored only one run. The Mets need a game where all three (starting pitching, hitting, relieving) click at the same time.
3. Lindor is quietly starting to hit. Lost in the homer-happy lineup has been Francisco Lindor’s last three games. He has gone 6-for-15 at the plate, collecting two hits in each game, including three doubles. The problem is he has scored only once, which speaks to the Mets hitting with RISP problems as a whole. He also has four multi-hit games in his last five played.

Let’s go Mets!

The post Game Chat: Giants vs Mets, 1:40 PM appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Edwin Díaz is going to be leaving Port St. Lucie for a couple of days as he is going back to New York for the birth of his third child. Díaz made his long-awaited return this week as he struck out the side in the top of fifth on Monday, after walking in to his infamous trumpet entrance song. Along with that came a video of Díaz’s wife Nashaly and their two children celebrating his return to the mound. 

Edwin Díaz's kids were thrilled watching him strike out the side tonight 🫶

(via nashaly.diaz/IG) pic.twitter.com/KXztCDPxev

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) March 12, 2024

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza mentioned that this will not effect his throwing routine as he will throw a live BP in the morning prior to catching his flight to New York. 

Congratulations to the Díaz family on welcoming another child into the world!

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Latest Mets News

The Mets announced that José Quintana will be their opening day starter as they will host the Brewers at Citi Field to open the season. Read more on the announcement!

After being scratched from last night’s game against the Astros due to “minor back tightness,” Brett Baty is expected to be back in the lineup on Thursday, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The Mets are having Kodai Senga wait an extra week to resume throwing. Click here to learn more. 

Mets prospect Luisangel Acuña was included in a list of the 20 most “notable and intriguing” global prospects included in the Spring Breakout, article written by Michael Clair of MLB.com.

The Mets walked off the Astros in Wednesday’s spring training game. Click here to read up on the happenings of that matchup!

Latest MLB News

The Seattle Mariners announced the passing of former catcher and manager Bill Plummer. He was 76 years of age. 

The San Diego Padres put an end to the Dylan Cease sweepstakes as they gave up four players to land the White Sox ace. To learn about the details of the trade, click here!

Yankees star outfielder Aaron Judge is dealing with an oblique issue and his toe is still ailing him from last year, per Pat Ragazzo of SI.com. Judge is still expected to be ready for opening day. 

Milwaukee Brewers closer Devin Williams has two stress fractures in his back and is expected to miss around three months, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

The Dodgers continue to renew former player Andrew Toles‘ contract to maintain his health insurance as he treats his mental health issues, per The AP.

The Yankees learned that their ace, Gerrit Cole, will be out at least one to two months and has an appointment to fly to LA and meet surgeon Neal ElAttrache, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post. While no tear in his UCL has been detected, they are going to continue to gather more information. 

The Kansas City Royals announced that they will be inducting Bo Jackson into the Royals Hall of Fame on June 29. 

The Boston Red Sox announced that newly signed pitcher Lucas Giolito underwent successful right elbow ulnar collateral ligament repair with internal brace on Tuesday. 

Latest on MMO

MMO will have a free live stream of the Mets Spring Breakout game!

José Quintana will be the Mets 2024 opening day starter!

The Padres add a big piece to their rotation prior to opening day!

On This Date in Mets History

2021: Luis Guillorme fouls off 16 pitches in route to drawing a walk in a 22-pitch battle against Cardinals pitcher Jordan Hicks. In his first outing since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Hicks had to leave the game after just one batter. 

Birthdays: Josh Stinson (36)

The post Morning Briefing: Edwin Díaz Leaving Camp for Birth of Child appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 34 (06/14/1989)

2023 Traditional Stats: 71 G, 68.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 6-3, 77 SO, 31 BB

2023 Advanced Stats: 246 ERA+, 28.2% SO%, 11.4% BB%, 3.35 xERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR

Rundown

Hector Neris began his career as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, pitching in their bullpen from 2014-2021. Neris finished his Phillies career with a 3.42 ERA, a 21-29 record and 520 strikeouts through 407 innings pitched. He followed his time in the NL East with a two-year stint in Houston, posting a 2.69 ERA in 133 innings where he struck out 156 batters.

While Neris found success with both teams, he was never quite consistent in his tenure. He’s struggled with pitch location and posted the second-worst walk percentage of his career in 2023. His 11.4% BB% fell in the 12th percentile compared to all pitchers in 2023, according to Statcast.

However, Neris posted his career-best ERA in 2023, which ranked seventh among qualified relievers. He ranked in the 98th percentile for hard hit percentage (28.0%), 95th percentile for xBA (.196), 91st percentile in average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and 90th percentile in pitching run value (16).

Neris threw his fastball 51.7% of the time this past season, the most he’s thrown it in his career. He mixed in a split-finger, sinker and slider in his repertoire. While his hard-hit percentage was down, as well as his line drive percentage, his ground ball percentage was one of the worst of his career at 31.7%. Of the 13 earned runs given up, seven came on the home run, while five came on the fastball.

Regarding the fastball, Neris’ velocity took a dip in 2023. His fastball velocity sat at 93 mph, a full mile down from 2022 and his lowest since 2015. His off-speed and breaking pitch velocities also dipped. While this is cause for concern, Neris posted a career-best BAA lefties and righties in 2023. Righties hit just .181/.280/.326 against him while lefties went just .163/.272/.245.

Hector Neris, Dirty 85mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/nOirxoKKU3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 22, 2022

Contract

Both MLBTradeRumors.com and Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections have Neris netting a two-year deal. MLBTradeRumors has Neris landing a two-year, $15 million deal, while FanGraphs has him signing a two-year, $16 million contract. The reliever market has been hot, and with only a few big names left, Neris is one of them.

The right-hander turned down his player option for $8.5 million to try and get a more lucrative deal this offseason. While he may earn around the same amount he would have made in Texas, he’s betting on himself. He might garner a deal north of $10 million, still for two years. Jordan Hicks signed with the Giants for four years, $44 million, but will start. With a similar history to Hicks, Neris might land a deal akin to this, but in reliever-friendly years.

Recommendation

Of note, Neris is one of the most durable relievers in the game. He’s never served time on the IL for any arm issue and ranks among the league leaders in innings pitched for relievers. On the flip side, the Mets have had nothing but durability issues in their bullpen for as long as they can recall.

While most of the Mets’ reliever signings this past offseason have been low-to-medium-risk, high-reward, Neris would mesh perfectly into that plan. His upside is high; however, he’s experienced instability in the past with command. A return to a competitive NL East would allow Neris to pair up as a setup man for Edwin Díaz. 

The post Free Agent Profile: Hector Neris, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Traditional Stats: 65 G, 3-9, 3.29 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 65 ⅔ IP, 81 K
Advanced Stats: 1.1 fWAR, 3.22 FIP,  3.30  xERA, 11.1 K’s per 9, 4.39 BB per 9

Rundown

Back in 2015, the St. Louis Cardinals selected Jordan Hicks in the third Round of the MLB Draft out of Cypress Creek High School in Houston, Texas. He would end up making his MLB debut in 2018 against the New York Mets as a 21-year-old. 

It turns out that his first season in the bigs is the year that he made the most appearances he has had in a single season (73). He ended up recording six saves and had an ERA of 3.59 despite having the lowest strikeouts per nine innings of his career (8.1). 

The next season is when Hicks earned more save opportunities with his electric fastball, recording 14 saves (career-high) across 2019. It set up to be a promising year for the then 22-year-old, but he ended up tearing the UCL in his right elbow.

After making the decision to opt out of the 2020 season during the COVID-19 pandemic due to injury and having Type 1 diabetes, Hicks returned in 2021, but he only appeared in 10 games as he ended up going on the injured list due to right elbow inflammation. 

The 2022 season brought around more injury problems for Hicks—he went on the injured list twice due to a right forearm flexor strain and right arm fatigue/neck spasms—and had command issues on top of that (5.1 walks per 9 innings). 

During the 2023 season, the Cardinals traded Hicks away at the trade deadline to the Toronto Blue Jays. Up in Canada, Hicks had the chance to pick up a few saves (four) for a contending team. In 24 innings for Toronto, he had a career-low three walks per nine to go with a 1.083 WHIP. 

The key for Hicks is always going to be that fastball. According to FanGraphs, the average velocity on his fastball has been 100 miles-per-hour or higher in three of his five seasons. Last season, he threw his fastball 75% of the time and his slider usage went down from 31.6 to 23.3.

Despite the slider usage going down last year, Hicks was able to produce swings and misses with his five-pitch mix. According to Baseball Savant, he had a whiff percentage of 28.2%, which is the second-highest of his career (30.2% on 454 pitches in 2019). 

Contract

While the upper end of the reliever market has yet to be active, Hicks is one of those pitchers who is going to be in demand because of his closer experience. He is an option that managers can use to finish the game or be a quality reliever in the later innings. 

When MLB Trade Rumors did their contract predictions, they had Hicks receiving a four-year, $40 million deal. He is healing into his age-28 season, so it would make sense that a young reliever would make that amount of money, but can the health concerns justify that type of contract? 

It might take four years to get a deal done if a team wants Hicks. Katie Woo of The Athletic had a report last year that said the Cardinals tried to extend Hicks before the trade deadline for three years, but they were unable to get a deal done. If he is going to turn down three years from St. Louis, it would be hard to think he is going to take three years from another big league club. 

Recommendation

The New York Mets bullpen does need to add more velocity to the bullpen behind Edwin Díaz and Hicks could provide some extra closer depth as the club eases Diaz back into the fold after his injury last year. Plus, David Stearns has familiarity seeing Stearns from all the matchups the Brewers had against the St. Louis Cardinals. However, it would be hard to see the Mets taking a chance on Hicks with his injury history. 

If his command improves, he has strong potential to be one of the better relievers in the game. However, if a lucrative long-term deal for a reliever is going to be the cost in this case, the organization might be better going with an option that is more reliable as they try to revamp the bullpen in 2024. 

The post Free Agent Profile: Jordan Hicks, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The next year, Cohen brought in Max Scherzer, once again signaling that he was going in rather than folding. Beyond Scherzer, though, the only other significant moves the Mets made were to bring in Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar, both mid-tier veterans, and trade for Chris Bassitt. The team overachieved for much of the season before the team fell apart in September and October.

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into 2023, if the Mets wanted to win, that had to be the year. Justin Verlander replaced Jacob deGrom, and between the two aging starters, it was an all-in season. At that point, though, the Mets stopped; they did not make any significant changes to their lineup except replacing the struggling James McCann with the struggling Omar Narváez. Every part of the team crumbled in 2023.

Heading into 2024, David Stearns can choose to continue the path of the last three seasons or make some significant changes. As Stearns said, the Mets intend to compete in 2024, but compete for what? The answer to that question should be similar to what it was in 2022, with some notable differences.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Overview

The Mets’ ideal 2024 plan should go as follows:

1. Sign a No. 2 and a No. 3 starter
2. Bring in a No. 5 starter for one year; try out as many prospects as possible
3. Get one big bat, preferably at third base or corner outfield
4. Re-sign Pete Alonso
5. Sign one late-inning option
6. Fill the remaining hitting needs (2B/3B/RF/LF/DH) with mid-tier veterans, some for one year; evaluate Baby Mets as much as possible
7. Keep throwing darts at relief pitching with controllable arms

Focus on Starting Pitching

If there is one area of the team the Mets should rebuild this offseason, it is the starting pitching. The Mets’ lone holdover starters from 2023 are Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Quintana is 34 years old and not under contract beyond 2024, while Senga can opt out after 2025 if he pitches 234 innings over the next two seasons combined.

There are a number of quality pitching options on the market. The Mets need to acquire at least two starters with multi-year commitments. Instead of relying on aging aces, they need pitchers who have longer windows than a year or two. Although it would be ideal to have young, cheap starters filling out the rotation, that is not currently the case.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The linchpin of the Mets’ offseason should be Yamamoto. They’ve been scouting him for months. True, there is a risk for any player coming over from Japan. Still, Yamamoto had a 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, and 0.1 HR/9 in Japan last season. The Mets should do everything possible to woo him, especially because he is just 25 years old. Corbin Burnes is a trade option, but acquiring him would mean giving up prospects and a big contract extension.

I doubt Cohen opens the pocketbook for both pitchers. Yamamoto is the preferred option.

A No. 3 Starter

Jordan Montgomery is likely the best free agent in this category, coming off back-to-back solid seasons. Montgomery is worth a significant pursuit as long as the commitment is closer to four years than seven. Entering his age-31 season, he should still be a solid starter for some time. He’d certainly be pitching above his value as a third starter.

Trading for Tyler Glasnow, reportedly a Mets consideration, would be risky. He costs $25 million this season, and his 120.0 innings pitched in 2023 were a career-high. Glasnow would at best be a bridge answer toward the back of the rotation. The Mets should also pass on Dylan Cease.

Any More Starters?

If the Mets don’t intend to seriously contend in 2024, José Butto can be their fifth starter. In nine 2023 games (seven starts), Butto posted a 3.64 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 0.64 HR/9. His biggest issue is command; he averaged 4.93 BB/9, leading to a 1.33 WHIP.

Such a plan leaves little margin for error due to injury, though. Butto’s five-game performance at the end of 2023 was encouraging. Still, it’s a small sample and leaves the Mets very thin beyond him. David Peterson will miss much of the season, and Tylor Megill has shown he’s not a starting option.

Wade Miley and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the most logical choices to fill out the rotation. Both would likely take one-year deals. The Mets should not pursue reclamation projects like Lucas Giolito or Luis Severino unless they come cheap.

Promote the Kids in 2024

Prospects Mike Vasil (MLB.com Mets No. 9), Christian Scott (No. 12), Dominic Hamel (No. 16), and Tyler Stuart (No. 17) are all projected to debut in 2024, per MLB.com. Vasil is the most touted, though he had a 5.30 ERA in 16 Triple-A starts. Still, he allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts.

All four should get opportunities this season. The Mets must figure out which of their minor leaguers could be part of the team in 2025 in some capacity. The team has not developed a pitching prospect into a consistent contributor in years (I’d argue since deGrom in 2014). They need to see if that can change.

Patch Up Bullpen But Don’t Overcommit

The Mets have only Edwin Díaz and Brooks Raley as reliable bullpen options in 2024. Still, they should not seek to bring back David Robertson, who, at nearly 39, would represent a win-now move.

If they want to add one setup man, Jordan Hicks, Yuki Matsui, Robert Stephenson, or Keynan Middleton should be the options they consider. At 27, Hicks will be the most coveted but may seek a closer spot. Matsui is coming from Japan. Stephenson overhauled his pitching repertoire, while Middleton had a sudden solid season. Some are worth longer commitments than others, but choosing one would be a good way to methodically build the bullpen.

Joey Lucchesi can take over as the long reliever. He had a mixed 2023 season, but I think he does best in the two-to-four-inning range rather than as a starter. Perhaps he can be an opener, if needed.

For the rest of the bullpen, I think the Mets should utilize the strategy they erroneously followed in 2022-23: acquire many arms, including several optionable, and hope some stick. It was a mistake when they were trying to win a championship but makes sense in a holdover season. Brett Martin and Jackson Stephens are coming off significant injuries but had previous success and could be cheap signings.

The Mets can also try out some of their prospects in the bullpen if they don’t make it as starters. Finding a young, controllable, reliable reliever has been a Mets goal for several seasons with little success. For example, Scott may not make it as a starter long-term, but he has potential as a reliever.

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Add One Big Power Bat

This should not be the season the Mets look to load up their hitting due to the thin market. Still, the lineup has long lacked big-time power beyond Alonso, often causing him to press. Lindor undoubtedly has pop, but he’s not a pure slugger. Francisco Álvarez can still develop into a middle-of-the-order bat but struggled in the second half of 2023.

If the Mets could acquire Juan Soto without breaking the prospect bank, they should do it. However, I doubt the Padres would trade Soto for Ronny Mauricio, Kevin Parada, and Megill. They would likely want at least one of Luisangel Acuña (MLB.com No. 38), Drew Gilbert (No. 52), or Jett Williams (No. 78). Soto is worth it with one of those top prospects in the package, though. He is just 25 years old and can help solve the Mets’ outfield hitting issues.

Shohei Ohtani is every baseball fan’s dream, but Ohtani seems unlikely to come to the Mets. I’ve always wondered how long a two-way player’s body can hold out. Ohtani is by far the most valuable player in all of baseball, but how long can he remain so, even compared to other players his age?

The most likely free-agent options are Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins, who profile as DHs. I prefer Hoskins despite his ACL tear in 2023, as he has never posted a wRC+ lower than 112.

To me, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger should not be options. Chapman was mediocre in 2023. Bellinger had a resurgent season after several years of futility. Both declined qualifying offers and are likely to receive deals far beyond their actual value. They have high bust potential due to uneven performance over the past several seasons.

Pete Alonso. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Extend Alonso

Perhaps this should be listed as the No. 1 offseason priority. The Mets should negotiate against themselves before they need to negotiate against everyone else. Trading the biggest slugger in team history would be a huge mistake, one Stearns doesn’t seem keen on making.

Scott Boras and Alonso undoubtedly would prefer to hit the market. Still, the Mets should do everything possible to persuade Alonso to sign an extension beforehand. They should not be sanguine about their ability to outbid everyone else next year.

Boras claimed he’s not using Matt Olson‘s eight-year, $168 million deal as a starting point for Alonso’s contract. The Mets should use that as a hard line in negotiations. Olson’s 5.0 fWAR in his final year with Oakland was close to double Alonso’s 2.8 mark in 2023. The Mets can’t push that line too far, but staying away from the 10-year threshold is worth adding some extra per-year dollar value to appease Alonso.

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

How to Handle the Infield

Alonso will be the Opening Day first baseman. Lindor is locked in at shortstop. The other two infield positions are more iffy.

Jeff McNeil played primarily at second base in 2023, but he saw a decent amount of time at both corner outfield positions. Although the Mets can still move him around, it seems that his home is still second base. If so, that would leave just third base open.

Internally, the Mets have Acuña, their No. 1 prospect, who profiles as a second baseman and could debut in 2024, though he won’t be their Opening Day starter. If he comes up and plays well, McNeil can shift to the outfield on a more full-time basis. For now, though, the assumption should be that the Mets need a starting third baseman and another option who can play second when McNeil moves to the outfield.

Gio Urshela and Justin Turner could both fit that bill. Turner is the better hitter, but Urshela is younger and likely cheaper. Both have positional versatility. Jeimer Candelario would be more of an offense-first move. He posted an OPS of at least .795 in three out of the past four seasons. Candelario’s projections have ranged between $11-18 million, and this move is not worthwhile at the upper end, nor in the four-year range. Still, he should be on the Mets’ radar as a third baseman.

What of the Mets’ three infield prospects who played in 2023? Mauricio played mostly second base and posted a .248/.296/.347 line in 108 plate appearances. Mark Vientos hit .211/.253/.367 and posted -0.9 fWAR in 233 plate appearances. Baty slashed .212/.275/.323 with -0.5 fWAR in 389 plate appearances. It’s difficult to justify a major league spot for any of them, but the Mets must have a definitive answer about all three.

Adam Duvall. Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield

Considering that Starling Marte’s legs are such a critical part of his game, it’s unreasonable to expect him to bounce back in 2024. Still, he’s under contract for two more years and will probably be part of the Mets’ plans. None of the Mets’ outfield prospects seem likely to hit the majors in 2024. Therefore, If McNeil sticks at second, they need two corner outfielders for next season (although one can potentially platoon with Marte). Soto would ideally be one of them, but he doesn’t seem likely for the Mets.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could draw their interest. Gurriel is generally a solid defender and a mostly average bat. If the Mets want to look toward the Asian leagues again, Jung Hoo Lee is also an option. He’s only 25, but he may not project as a power bat in the MLB. Teoscar Hernandez‘s name has repeatedly come up, but the only way I’d pursue him is on a shorter-term deal commensurate with his poor 2023 performance.

The Mets could also pursue a bridge outfielder. Adam Duvall was on their radar last year, and he posted a .247/.303/.531 slash line (116 wRC+) while playing an adequate corner outfield.

How this Works for 2025

The Mets reset by selling off in 2023, but it left them with many holes. Realistically, they won’t be able to fill all those holes in one offseason, nor should they try. Ideally, they can build enough talent so as not to need another major overhaul in 2025. This doesn’t mean writing off 2024, but it does mean not going all-in for a championship.

If they can lock down two front-end starting pitchers, it will be easier to fill in the back of the rotation in 2025. Perhaps one of their prospects can become a fifth starter, which would leave them in a solid position heading into 2025.

The bullpen is a bigger problem. That’s why a setup man makes the most sense. Solve those problems in 2024 and then try to fill in the rest. They’re unlikely to fix the entire bullpen in one free agency cycle.

In the lineup, if they extend Alonso and sign another power bat, they’re more likely to be able to rely on the kids in 2025. Obviously, this depends on Álvarez and McNeil hitting closer to their potential. Possibly signing one other solid bat and a couple of bridge veterans can fill out the lineup.

This would spur the hope that one of their prospects — Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, Acuña, or Williams — can become a viable starting option, possibly necessitating only one significant lineup move in 2025. That’s also when Gilbert, Parada, and Alex Ramírez could join the mix if the Mets don’t trade them first.

This is not a low-spending strategy at all. But it’s a way to try to fill some bigger holes, patch up others until more resources are available, and bridge the gap until the Mets’ top prospects are ready.

One Big Issue

The Mets have many players hoping for improvement in 2024, but they did little at the coaching level to facilitate it. Although changing managers could help, keeping Jeremy Barnes and Jeremy Hefner means the players will be receiving similar coaching. Eric Chávez and Barnes have not been able to develop the Mets’ hitting prospects. Hefner has failed with virtually every Mets pitcher except Diaz.

When Stearns and Mendoza came in, it would have made the most sense to change coaches, as well. Not doing so is a poor prospect for all Mets players, either from elsewhere or from within the organization.

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Why Not Buy a Team?

Some Mets fans will bristle at not trying to win a championship every year. It’s sort of the Yankees George Steinbrenner syndrome: what we can’t build, we’ll buy.

Still, Cohen has made clear that this is not a sustainable long-term strategy. The Mets could choose to mostly sit out this free agency cycle, but that would mean potentially tanking in 2024 and even 2025. That doesn’t appear to be in their plans.

This is why much of my proposed strategy involves multi-year deals. The team should determine which acquisitions would be part of their longer-term plans. Ideally, they would be able to play all their young players without being forced to sign other starters, but those players are simply not reliable.

There is a fundamental difference between many of these deals and the Mets’ signing of Marte in 2022. Acquiring a 33-year-old for four years when the player is so reliant on speed is never a good idea. By contrast, players like Hoskins, Soler, and Candelario, all in their early 30s, are power threats rather than speed. Signing them is a lot safer than Marte was.

I still think Cohen can try the strategy he proposed when he first joined the team: spending money in the interim while trying to build a sustainable future. The Mets have enough prospects in the upper minors to be able to field a cheaper roster if they can develop those players. For now, they still need those augmenting pieces, and that will come mainly by spending money. Still, it’s not wise to go out and splurge on every big name on the market in pursuit of a championship in 2024.

We’ll see what path Stearns chooses as he begins to shape the Mets in his vision.

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Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) are coming to New York to face the Mets (23-13) in a four-game series. At the time of their last meeting back in April, the Mets were in the middle of their series win streak to start the season and they took two of three games from the Cardinals.

This time, the Mets are coming off their first series loss, after falling to the Mariners 2-1 in a three-game series. There was also some bad blood between these two teams in April, as the Mets took offense to multiple hit-by-pitches and then Nolan Arenado took offense to an inside pitch in his general vicinity.

The Mets were rolling up until their series loss to the Mariners, which broke a streak of ten unbeaten series. The series was tied at one game each when the Mets starting pitching and bullpen faltered in game three. The offense managed to score seven runs, but they ultimately fell to the Mariners 8-7.

Brandon Nimmo continued his solid start to the season. He has an 11-game hitting streak and a 26-game on base streak. He had five hits in 12 at-bats against the Mariners and was our Player of the Week. Starling Marte had a great game in the Mets only win, going 3-for-4 and ending up only a home run short of the cycle. He did strikeout in an inopportune moment on Sunday, in the bottom of the ninth with the tying and winning runs in scoring position, but on the whole he had a solid series.

The bullpen faltered for the Mets against the Mariners. Drew Smith gave up his first run of the season in game one, and Chasen Shreve faltered in games two and three. The Mets offense was able to overcome the bullpen woes in game two, thanks in part to a go-ahead home run off the bat of Patrick Mazeika. But there was no such luck in game three, and the four runs the bullpen gave up after starter Carlos Carrasco exited in the fourth inning proved insurmountable.

The Cardinals are coming into this series off a series win against the Giants. Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are the Cardinals’ hottest hitters, with slash lines of .312/.374/.600 and .312/.394/.496, respectively. The Cardinals did lose a series to the Orioles prior to facing the Giants, which was surprising, given the Orioles are 14-21 and are in a rebuild.

In the rubber game of their series against the Giants, the Cardinal’s bats exploded, crushing the Giants 15-6. They were able to knock out Giants’ starter Carlos Rodon, scoring eight runs and limiting him to 3 2/3 innings. Goldschmidt and Arenado both homered in the game, as did Yadier Molina. The blowout was large enough that Albert Pujols made his first career appearance as a pitcher, closing out the ninth inning for the Cardinals. He gave up a three-run homer and a solo home run, but still managed to get the final three outs.

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Monday, May 16, 2022: RHP Trevor Williams (0-2, 5.73 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (3-1, 1.49 ERA)

Tylor Megill was supposed to start game one of this series for the Mets, but he was placed on the injured list on Sunday with biceps tendinitis. Williams has been serving as the long man in the bullpen, and will get the spot start in Megill’s place. Williams has pitched in 19 games against the Cardinals and has started 14 of them. He has a 5.64 ERA in those games. The Cardinals have good numbers against Williams, especially Arenado, Goldschmidt, Molina, and Harrison Bader.

Mikolas started against the Mets on April 25. He pitched seven scoreless innings and took a no-decision. Mikolas has only faced the Mets three times in his career, but he has a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings against them. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are the Mets with the best numbers against Mikolas, but their numbers are admittedly in a small sample size. Starling Marte has faced Mikolas the most of any of the current Mets, and has not fared well against him (.143/.171/.382 slash line in 35 at-bats).

(UPDATE: Monday’s game was postponed, so this matchup will likely take place Tuesday during the scheduled doubleheader.)

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Tuesday, May 17, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (3-3, 6.40 ERA)

Walker pitched well in his last start against the Nationals, tossing seven scoreless innings and giving up only three hits. It was a nice bounce back from his previous start against the Phillies, where he lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs. Walker looked uncomfortable during his start against the Nationals, but insisted after the game that he was fine. Walker has started four games against the Cardinals in his career, and has a 2.52 ERA in 25 innings.

Matz has had a rough go of things since signing with the Cardinals, as his ERA attests. He has tossed a couple of great games, including scoreless efforts against the Brewers and the Royals. But he has also thrown some clunkers, including a two-inning eight run start against the Giants and a three-inning seven run start against the Pirates. Matz pitched against the Mets back in April and gave up four runs in four innings. He was bailed out by the Cardinals offense in that game, and though he took a no decision, the Cardinals won 10-5.

Credit: USA TODAY

Wednesday, May 18, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (4-1, 2.66 ERA) vs. RHP Jordan Hicks (1-3, 4.15 ERA)

Scherzer took a no decision in his last start against the Mariners. Although the Mets ultimately lost the game, Scherzer had a solid outing, giving up one run in seven innings of work. He also pitched well in his game against the Cardinals back in April, tossing seven scoreless innings. Scherzer has pitched well against the Cardinals in his career, with a 2.55 ERA in 14 starts against them.

Hicks is still in the process of converting from a reliever to a starter. His numbers reflect this, as his longest start so far this year has been five innings against the Giants, which is also the longest outing of his career. Hicks has had a couple of scoreless outings this season, but, in general, he has not been as effective of a starter as he has been as a reliever. In his outing against the Mets in April, he went two innings and gave up two runs. In five other appearances against the Mets as a reliever, he has only given up one run.

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, May 19, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (4-2, 2.34 ERA) vs. RHP Dakota Hudson (3-2, 3.06 ERA)

Bassitt started the only game the Mets won against the Mariners in their last series. He pitched 5 2/3 innings and gave up one run. He took a no decision because the bullpen faltered behind him. He pitched decently, but allowed too much traffic on the bases by giving up five hits and three walks, which upped his pitch count and ended his night early. In his April start against the Cardinals, Bassitt went six innings and did not give up any runs.

Hudson threw five shut-out innings against the Giants in his last start, which helped put an end to the Giants 6-game winning streak. Hudson has only faced the Mets twice in his career, and he has a 4.91 ERA in 11 innings in those two starts. Starling Marte has faced Hudson the most of any current Mets player, and he has .400 average in 10 at bats with one home run and three RBIs.

Prediction

The Mets and Cardinals will likely split this series. The Cardinals have the clear pitching advantage in game one and will likely win that game, but the Mets have the advantage in games two and three and should be able to take those two games. Game four will be close, and will decide whether the Mets win the series, or settle for a series split.

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Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets are heading to St. Louis to face the Cardinals in the final series of their second road trip. The Mets took two of three games from the lowly Diamondbacks in their last series. The Dbacks played a sloppy series, making four errors in the previous two games. The Mets will face stiffer competition in St. Louis, as the Cardinals are one of the league’s most prepared and defensively sound teams. Since the Mets have won their first five series of the season, the hope is that they will continue that streak by taking at least two of the three games against St. Louis. The Cardinals also have not yet lost a series, but they split their third series with the Brewers.

In the Arizona series, the Mets got production from some players struggling to start the year. J.D. Davis and James McCann each hit their first home runs of the season. Davis also went two for three in the final game. In addition, Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil continued their solid starts to the season. Lindor got a hit in all three games, and McNeil hit his first triple of the season, going two for three in game two. In Arizona, Pete Alonso cooled off, managing only two hits (both singles) in the entire series.

The starting pitching was also solid in Arizona. David Peterson pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in game one. Tylor Megill showed again that he is an integral part of this rotation, tossing 6 2/3 innings in game three and giving up only two runs. Unlike the starters, the bullpen faltered a bit in the series. In game one, Trevor May gave up a home run late that put the Diamondbacks back in the game, and Edwin Diaz blew his first game of the season. Game two was a bullpen game, and it was the only game the Mets lost in the series.

The Cardinals are coming into the series against the Mets with a 9-4 record, and back-to-back series wins against the Marlins and the Reds. Nolan Arenado has gotten off to a hot start for the Cardinals- he is batting .346/.426/.727 with five home runs and 14 RBIs. Albert Pujols seems to be rejuvenated in his return to the red birds- he has two home runs in eight games and even managed to score from first on a double in the gap hit off the bat of Tommy Edman. Edman is also off to a good start and is batting .313/.400/.563. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been superb, and they have not lost a game yet this season. The Mets will miss Adam Wainwright in this series but should hopefully see some of Yadier Molina and Pujols during this series. While both Molina and Pujols have confirmed that this year is their final season, Wainwright keeps the door open for more.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Preview

Monday, April 25, 2022: RHP Max Scherzer (3-0, 2.50 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.76 ERA)

Max Scherzer could not have written a better script for his first start at Citi Field as a New York Met. He had a no-hitter going through 6 2/3 innings before giving up his only hit of the night. Scherzer likely would not have gotten the chance to complete the no-hitter, as his pitch count was high for so early in the season. But there’s a good chance we’ll see more greatness from him as the season goes on.

This year, Miles Mikolas has started three games for the Cardinals but has only thrown 15 1/3 innings. His low innings total likely explains the two no-decisions he has so far. Mikolas struck out five batters in five innings in his last start against the Marlins.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday, April 26, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (2-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. RHP Jordan Hicks (1-1, 1.29 ERA).

Chris Bassitt’s last start was the only Mets’ loss to the Giants during their four-game series at Citi Field. He gave up five earned runs in his six innings of work. That start was Bassitt’s worst start as a Met so far.  Bassitt has only faced the Cardinals once in his career, in 2019. He did not pitch well, throwing 95 pitches in 3 1/3 innings and giving up three runs. Hopefully, Bassitt can shake off his early inning struggles from the Giants’ game and his previous Cardinals’ game and give the Mets a solid start in game two.

Jordan Hicks has exclusively been a reliever for the Cardinals through his first three seasons. He is transitioning to full-time starter in 2022, though a couple of rainouts have slowed the transition, and he has appeared as a reliever in two of his three games this season. As a reliever, Hicks could throw his fastball as fast as 105 mph. As a newly minted starter, he throws about 22% of his pitches faster than 100 mph. However, because of his injury history and a missed season during 2020 (Hicks has type 1 diabetes and opted out of the season due to health concerns), Hicks is working to build up his arm strength and is deliberately throwing at less than max effort. As a result, he was limited to only three innings in his first outing as a starter.

Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday, April 27, 2022: RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 1.47 ERA) vs. LHP Steven Matz (2-1, 5.27 ERA)

The Carlos Carrasco Mets fans have been treated so far in 2022, as this is the Carlos Carrasco fans were hoping they were getting in 2021. With his hamstring injuries behind him and his surgically cleaned-up pitching elbow, Carrasco has proven this year that he can still pitch to the back of his baseball card. This season, he has struck out 20 batters and pitched into the eighth inning in his last start against the Giants, making him the first Mets starter to do so this year.

Steven Matz will make his second start against his former team since he was traded from the Mets to the Blue Jays in 2021. In his first start against the Mets in 2021, Matz threw 5 2/3 innings and gave up two runs; he was ultimately the losing pitcher in that outing. Matz’s 2022 season with the Cardinals has gotten a bumpy start. In his first game of the season, he gave up seven runs in three innings against the rebuilding Pirates. He bounced back and threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Brewers in his second start, followed by five innings of one-run ball against the Reds.

Prediction

The Mets will continue their winning ways in St. Louis and take at least two games in the series. The pitching match-ups are favorable, and because of a couple of rainouts and one extra day off for the Cardinals, the Mets’ starters are more stretched out than the Cardinals’ starters. One obstacle to winning two of three might be the Cardinals’ bullpen, but hopefully, the Mets’ hitters can find a way to score some late-inning runs.

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