There are already signs of him being high maintenance … signs he enjoys the trappings of New York too much … signs he doesn’t handle injuries well … signs of being too sensitive … signs he knows he’s good and isn’t afraid to let you know.

Harvey has never pitched a complete season and is 12-10 lifetime. While we’re not talking about the second coming of Tom Seaver, Harvey seems to be carrying himself with a sense of entitlement and a “you can’t touch me’’ aura.

The latest is his reported reluctance to want to undergo his rehab in Port St. Lucie, which the Mets prefer, and desire to work out in New York.

After Harvey threw for the first time Saturday, general manager Sandy Alderson backed off saying where the 24-year-old 2010 will rehab, but made clear his preference.

“As a general rule, our players rehab in Florida,’’ Alderson said Saturday. “But that’s not a decision we’re going to make or mandate [now]. When we get to the end of spring training we’ll see where he is, and I’m sure there will be discussion between now and then.’’

For somebody with 36 career starts, why should there even be discussion? If Port St. Lucie was good enough for David Wright and Pedro Martinez to rehab, it should be good enough for Harvey.

In fairness, we haven’t heard Harvey’s reasoning for his preference of New York, which leads to speculation, with little of it showing him in a good light.

Making this more touchy is this could go before the Players Association, as the collective bargaining agreement mandates a player can refuse his rehab in a spring training locale during the season for longer than 20 days.

“The CBA imposes limitations. Yeah,’’ Alderson said. “But in the past, for the most part, our players have been here and it’s been a good situation.’’

We know New York is Harvey’s home, has superior Italian food and a better nightlife than Port St. Lucie.

But, what’s the purpose here?

New York’s nightlife makes one wonder, as Harvey clearly enjoys the perks of being a star – even though that might be a premature characterization of his professional status. Harvey likes the clubs and openly spoke about his drinking in a Men’s Journal magazine piece.

“I’m young, I’m single,’’ he was quoted as saying. “I want to be in the mix. … I have a 48-hour rule. No drinking two days before a start. But, those other days? Yes, I’m gonna go out.’’

The bottom line: If you’re 24 and a high-profile figure, you shouldn’t need a rule about drinking. If he finds it necessary to have a rule, he shouldn’t be drinking in the first place.

Everybody these days has a phone with a camera. Harvey has already been caught several times in incidents of public displays of affection with his former supermodel girlfriend, Anne V. at Rangers and Knicks games, where he is gifted the tickets. More trappings.

He’s now seeing another model, Ashley Haas, which has his comments of wanting to be like Derek Jeter resurface. Of course, It is doubtful Jeter would have ever posed nude.

“That guy is the model,’’ he said. “I mean, first off, let’s just look at the women he’s dated. Obviously, he goes out – he’s meeting these girls somewhere – but you never hear about it. That’s where I want to be.’’

New York’s nightlife has burned out dozens of athletes. Look what it did for Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. Imagine what Mickey Mantle would have been able to accomplish with a little less drinking and womanizing.

And, as for Jeter, he’s not the Teflon he’s made out to be. Stories of sending his conquests home with a gift basket of memorabilia and forcing house guests to surrender their cell phones don’t portray him in a flattering light. Mom must be so proud.

Shortly after the magazine piece came out, Harvey complained about being misquoted and taken out of context. A reporter for a magazine profile records everything, so it is doubtful the quotes were manufactured. Backing off his comments shows a lack of accountability.

Harvey also got into it with WFAN talk-show host Joe Beningo, ripping him on Twitter and then deleting the post.

When it comes to fighting with a radio personality or the media in general, it is futile as it comes off as petty and unprofessional, plus, he’ll never have the last word.

The media isn’t as easy to bully as was former teammate Jon Rauch, whom Harvey forced out of town after challenging the former Mets reliever to a fight because he didn’t appreciate the rookie hazing, which included getting doused with water while sleeping on the trainer’s table.

If Harvey had a problem he could have confronted Rauch in private rather than making for a very uncomfortable clubhouse scene. That’s something somebody with a professional grasp on things would have done. Instead, he came off as behaving like Jordany Valdespin.

That’s not the only thing Harvey hasn’t handled well. Twice he wasn’t immediately forthcoming in disclosing injuries to the training staff, and arguably it led to his elbow surgery.

I want the best for Harvey. I want him to have a long and brilliant career. However, he has a long way to go, on and off the field. He hasn’t always shown good judgment and a case can be made it cost him this season.

He needs to reign himself in off the field, and that includes not making a big deal about where he rehabs. If reflects poorly on him and makes one wonder if this isn’t about carousing the bars with Haas and watching the Rangers.

If he maintains this course, instead of a franchise pitcher, he could end being a high maintenance super nova.

The post Could Matt Harvey Become A High Maintenance Super Nova? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Mets Twitter was up in arms last night when the news broke about LaTroy Hawkins signing a a one year deal with the Rockies for what seems like a very reasonable $2.25 million dollars. It looks like Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd has got this moneyball thing down pat. He gets himself a closer for far less than the open market price of $12 million annually. The Mets don’t need a closer, assuming Bobby Parnell will be ready for Spring Training. But Hawkins for that price was still a bargain for a late inning reliever. Consider that the Mets were almost on the hook for $2.4 million on Brandon Lyon last season, but cut him a day before his incentive bonuses kicked in. Also consider the Mets shelled out $3.5 million for Jon Rauch the year before. Give the Rockies credit. They’ve been down this road before with Hawkins in 2007, and he rewarded them with a solid season in the thin air of Denver posting a 3.66 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in 66 appearances. Fare thee well, Hawk…

As we already reported yesterday, the Yankees have jumped into the pool of teams that are pursuing shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Andy Martino of the Daily News says that for the Mets, any rumor involving Peralta is bad news.  On a three-year deal, the 31-year-old is perfect for a team looking for a legit hitter, and an upgrade at shortstop.  Going into the offseason, there was some thought that Peralta’s Biogenesis suspension would reduce his value, but that does not appear to be the case. Martino sees Peralta as a test for the seriousness of the Mets front office. “An unexpected bidding frenzy would test the Mets’ budget, and willingness to re-engage in the hunt for real free agents, which they gave not done since the Omar Minaya years.” If the Mets get shutout on Peralta and Stephen Drew, they may just have to settle for Rafael Furcal who is a high injury risk, or resign themselves to another year of Ruben Tejada and Omar Quintanilla. Reyes Replacement Counter: 716 days and counting.

Where will Robinson Cano end up? (the Mets?) CBS Sports reported that the Yankees and their free agent second baseman are about $150 million apart in contract negotiations. Yes, you read that right. In comparison, the Mets and Hawkins were about $1 million apart. (Ducks) Cano is reportedly asking for $310 million over 10 years while the Yankees are offering about $160 million over seven years. I think Cano is out of his mind – or maybe it’s rapper Jay-Z who is filling his client’s head with these astronomical numbers. Cano is obviously the top free agent on the market and is coming off a fantastic season that saw him slash at .314/.383/.516 with 41 doubles, 27 home runs and 107 RBIs in 2013. But he’s 31 and is looking for a deal that will pay him trough 41. I think the best thing about that Albert Pujols deal was that it jolted the system and I don’t see GMs and owners ever duplicating that mistake again. Sorry, Robbie…

Finally, the Post caught up with Mets owner Fred Wilpon who said it was “painful” watching Mets games last season. The team’s owner was asked about the University of Michigan football team Monday and he responded: “What football team? It’s painful to watch that, but it was painful to watch a baseball game this year, too.” Hilarious… Trust me on this, Fred… I feel your pain… 🙂

The post Hits & Misses: Hawkins Outrage, Fred’s Pain, Jhonny Be Good, Cano Is Loco appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

I came across this on MLBTR this morning:

The Mets are looking for players to buy into their offensive philosophy, and that means finding guys with discipline at the plate, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.  That might help to explain why the free-swinging Daniel Murphy has found himself on the pages of MLBTR over the last week or so.

I headed over to Martino’s post after reading that, and immediately knew I was in store for something strange when I saw the title “The Mets Need Fewer Sourpusses.”

Sure enough, Martino makes his maiden voyage into MMO Fair or Foul…

In Sandy Alderson’s previous three offseasons, the GM was shackled by budget constraints, and forced to choose from an undesirable pile of free agents.  In many cases, he did not choose well, signing guys who brought a sour vibe into the clubhouse, in some cases creating more trouble than was justified by their limited contributions.

It began with catcher Ronny Paulino and reliever D.J. Carrasco in 2011; the former was uninterested in following game plans, and the latter drove the coaching staff crazy with frequent whining about his usage.  Subsequent years brought Jon Rauch’s unrelenting surliness and Frank Francisco’s unwillingness to pitch, along with attempts to dissuade youngsters from doing so.

Shaun Marcum was, well, not charming, and while Marlon Byrd arrived with a questionable reputation, he was generally a pleasant surprise in the clubhouse — save for what many Mets people saw as his overcoaching of teammates.

It is that latter point that the Mets want to address, in addition to bringing in more pleasant people. On every level of the organization up to major league hitting coach Dave Hudgens, Alderson’s staff has spent three years working to instill a hitting philosophy that stresses plate discipline and on-base percentage.  Agree or disagree with that view — many baseball folks criticize it for making hitters less aggressive, a characterization that proponents dispute — it is one that the GM insists on.

Players like Byrd and Daniel Murphy are good hitters, but operate in a mode that is far from Aldersonian.  Byrd is an aggressive swinger, unwilling or unable to draw many walks (his walk rate last year was a lowly 5.4 percent), and more than willing to encourage teammates to follow his own ideas while they worked pregame in the batting cage. That is one of the reasons the Mets did not pursue a reunion with the outfielder, who signed a two-year, $16 million deal with Philadelphia on Tuesday.

The Mets are open to trading Murphy for similar reasons.  Murphy has earned the respect of the front office by working to turn himself into a passable second baseman, but he is another aggressive hitter, whose style does not fit what the general manager, hitting coach, and organizational instructors teach.  This is one of the reasons that the team might be ready to move him.

Read the rest of this article here.

Well that was quite the mixed bag… Who knew that backstory on Marlon Byrd as well as all those other free agents that have come and gone. I thought Byrd’s coaching of the younger players was kind of a good thing, but I guess it didn’t sit well with the higher-ups.

But what bugs me most is the thought that Murphy could be shipped simply because he doesn’t comply with the program. As much as they say it’s not a one-size fits all approach, you read something like this and it makes you wonder just how much truth there is to that.

The way I see it, the Mets already have their hands full trying to replace the 40 homers they got from Byrd and also John Buck. That should be difficult enough to do. But then to also have to replace Murphy as well makes me wonder how they intend to replace all three and then begin to upgrade the offense on top of all that. Maybe Sandy has a few tricks up his sleeve…

The post MMO Fair or Foul: Mets Need Fewer Sourpusses And More Players Who Buy Into Offensive Philosophy appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Former-Met Scott Hairston was dealt on Monday to the Washington Nationals after struggling mightily with the Cubs in 2013. While in hot pursuit of free agent outfielder Michael Bourn, Chicago swept Hairston out from under the feet of the Amazin’s front office, forcing Sandy’s “What Outfield?” Mets into the spotlight. Many, myself included, criticized Alderson for allowing the veteran to walk, especially on such an inexpensive deal. However once spring arrived and a new season was underway, it became quite clear that the Hairston that produced 20 home runs for the Mets in 2012 was unable to do the same in Wrigley.

Scott Hairston represents just the tip of the iceberg in a laundry list of now-former Mets who have struggled in their respective new homes after parting ways with New York this past winter. In fact, outside of Jason Bay who has 11 homers with the Mariners, almost every 2012 Met no longer with the team has found themselves in less than desirable spots since their departure from Queens.

When R.A. Dickey was traded to the Toronto just before Christmas, he was widely regarded as the final piece that put the new-look Jays over the top as the favorite in the AL East, yet to this point, he has failed to put up numbers even close to his 2012 Cy Young Award winning season. Going 8-9 with a 4.77 ERA, Dickey has become one of the many top-tier acquisitions that has yet to live up to expectations in 2013.

Also coming over in the Blue Jays deal was the catching duo of Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. A pair known for a combined sub-par performance in their respective Met careers, leading many to believed they truly belonged in Buffalo rather than Flushing. Ironically, that is exactly where they ended up in 2013, pairing up once again behind the plate, only this time with the now Toronto-affiliated Buffalo Bisons.

Mike Pelfrey‘s roller coaster Met career came to a conclusion this past winter when he was non-tendered rather than going to arbitration. The 2005 first-round pick was signed by the Minnesota Twins to a one-year, $4 million deal; a bargain. Pelfrey, coming back from Tommy John surgery, has since struggled to regain any sort of command, pitching to the tune of a 5.36 ERA over 15 starts.

Angel Pagan was dealt to the San Francisco Giants on the night of December 7th in return for RHP Ramon Ramirez and outfielder Andres Torres. Both were expected to play prominent roles in the 2012 season for the Mets, however as both were unable to rise to the occasion, they were let go by the Amazin’s and promptly re-signed by the club that traded them just one year ago. After posting an ERA north of 11, Ramirez was granted his unconditional release and is currently in the Rays minor league system. Torres, although not exactly swinging the bat well with a .661 OPS, has managed to find himself regular time in San Francisco, starting in place of Pagan, who is out for the year with a hamstring injury.

Jon Rauch was one one of the more reliable arms for the Amazin’s out of the ‘pen in 2012, however took his talents to South Beach for the 2013 season. His tenure with the Marlins was not long lived as he was released after posting a 7.56 ERA in just 15 outings.

Starter Chris Young signed a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals, and after going 1-2 with a 7.88 ERA in Triple-A Syracuse, found himself out of a job.

A number of the Mets core performers of 2012 were not renewed for this year, and now at halfway through this season, it appears that Sandy Alderson made the right move in choosing to let them walk. While purging what turned out to be the right players, Alderson has also brought back guys like Jeremy Hefner who have contributed positively to the 2013 squad. Now if only he could get an outfielder…

The post 2012 Mets Castoffs Have Not Had Much Success In ’13 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Yesterday, I called Matt Harvey one the biggest bad-asses in baseball after reading about this incident that took place last season, when Jon Rauch (good riddance) decided to haze the young rookie.

During his rookie season last year, Harvey was tired and decided to take a nap in a side room of the Mets’ clubhouse. One of baseball’s stupid decrees goes something like: Rookies pretty much can’t do anything. That includes nap. The self-appointed enforcer of this rule was Jon Rauch, the 6-foot-11 relief pitcher with head-to-toe tattoos and the sort of perma-snarl reserved for nuns and rabid dogs.

Rauch, according to people who saw the incident, barged into the room with bucket of ice water, which he proceeded to dump on Harvey. It waterlogged Harvey’s phone, which was resting on his chest as an alarm, and incited an even more electrical reaction inside Harvey.

He bounded up and challenged Rauch to a fight. Right there. Right then. He gave up 7 inches, about 75 pounds and a gallon or so of bad ink. It didn’t matter that he was a rookie. Harvey would not be a joke. He would not be a punch line in Rauch’s re-telling. He would not let some mediocre clown play him.

Rauch backed away.

From that day forth, everyone who witnessed the incident or heard about it understood a new Mets commandment: Thou shalt not trifle with Matt Harvey. And they gleaned something that they may not have understood at the time but certainly will going forward: If he can stand up against the big, bad leviathan and turn into the alpha dog just like that, so can the team that for the last five years has been nothing but joke after punch line after clown bait.

Jeff Passan, Yahoo Sports

Today, I give you this, courtesy of one of our readers Gus, who linked me to this post on FanGraphs in which Jeff Stevens wrote:

Matt Harvey didn’t throw a no-hitter against the Braves on Tuesday, but he did almost do that, not allowing a hit until the bottom of the seventh. It’s not that Harvey relied entirely on the strikeout — of the batters he faced, 13 didn’t whiff. But then, of the batters he faced, 13 did whiff, and Harvey’s season rate is verging on 30%. Matt Harvey was already good a year ago. Since then he’s only induced more grounders and cut his walk rate in half. Harvey, at this point, is in the argument for being the most valuable young pitcher in all of baseball.

Against the Braves, Harvey registered 15 swinging strikes on secondary stuff, which is outstanding. Yet he also picked up eight whiffs on his heater, which is kind of par for the Harvey course. No other starter’s fastball has led to so many swinging strikes, as Harvey can just be completely overwhelming. Instead of just using his fastball as a foundation, Harvey uses it also as a weapon, which is a rare gift. To have a swing-and-miss fastball is to have one hell of an advantage, and though fastballs tend to get slower over time, for now, at least, Harvey’s elite.

Staring Down The Barrel Of A Future Cy Young…

Harvey is the first rounder that most GMs can only dream about drafting. He’s not that 10th or 39th round draft pick that you oftentimes get lucky with. He was the primary target and all the scouting and all the hunches about him were right. Considering that Tom Seaver wasn’t drafted, Matt Harvey could end up being the greatest pitcher the Mets ever drafted in 52 years when all is said and done. And even Dwight Gooden would agree with me on that.

Oh and memo to MetsBlog:

You CAN BET that Matt Harvey will win a boatload of Cy Young Awards. You CAN BET that Matt Harvey will start many an All Star Game including the first one he is eligible for this July at Citi Field. Heck why stop there? You CAN BET that barring injuries, Matt Harvey will have his number alongside that of “The Franchise” on our outfield wall with Gil and Casey when his playing days are done.

Yes, Matt Harvey is the most valuable pitcher in baseball… I wouldn’t swap him for any other active pitcher on the planet.

And you can bet on that!

That’s What A Cy Young Pitcher Looks Like…

The post I Wouldn’t Swap Matt Harvey For Any Other Pitcher On The Planet appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

In a conference call Wednesday evening, Mets GM Sandy Alderson addressed several issues surrounding the team. Here are some of the things he told us:

• Catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud will not be allowed to block the plate. The reason for that is obvious – his health.
• The leadoff spot is still up in the air but Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who is the leading candidate, still has a lot of work to do.
• If Nieuwenhuis plays full-time he will strikeout over 100 times that could give the Mets four players with over 100 strikeouts when you consider David Wright, Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. While strikeouts are a concern, hopefully they will be offset by an increased on-base percentage and run production.
• If the Mets are competitive this summer, he knows he will face the dilemma of trading pitching prospects to acquire an outfield bat and it’s not something he’s looking forward to do, but he may not have a choice.
• Alderson said how the Mets handled Matt Harvey last year should buy him patience from fans wanting to rush Zack Wheeler. He added there’s no sense in force-feeding a young player if he’s not ready. If the rotation pitches reasonably well there will be no obligation for him to bring up Wheeler when he can only benefit by more development.

These and other issues from Alderson’s conference call will be explored in greater detail in future posts.

MURPHY BREAKOUT: Terry Collins told us that Murphy is still a week to ten days away from returning to the lineup. Knowing the scrappy player and how he never wants to miss a start, it must be killing him not to be on the field as it is Collins. Joe D. reminded me that this is the first Spring where he’s not learning a new position and I agree with him that this will lead to a much improved season at the plate including a spike in home runs.

DUDA CONCERNS: If the Mets could take one positive out of Wednesday’s 12-4 waxing at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, it is that Lucas Duda broke a 0-for-7 slide with groundball single. No, they did not stop the game to give him the ball. Duda finished 1-for-3 with one strikeout, so it isn’t as if he’s found it all of a sudden. The Mets like his power potential, but must be concerned about his wasted at-bats. He had 120 strikeouts with only 51 walks in 459 plate appearances last season.

PEDRO HAS HEART: The Mets and Pedro Feliciano got some good news the lefty reliever’s heart tests came back clear, and that he can resume baseball activities. I’m happy to hear the good news. Pedro’s been fun to cover, one of the nicest players the Mets have had and always greets reporters with a smile and a hello.

CAPTAIN WRIGHT: Wright returned to the lineup with two singles. He’s not scheduled to play Thursday, but is Friday against Detroit at Port St. Lucie. David Wright hopes to play third instead of DH in that game. On Saturday he leaves for the World Baseball Classic. Collins is polling the clubhouse for opinions on Wright’s potential captaincy and wants this done prior to Opening Day, It’s impossible to think his teammates will vote him down.

JOHAN DOWN BUT NOT OUT: You have to feel bad for Johan Santana who was frustrated after his last bullpen so much so that the team decided to let him shut it down and work on some issues locating his pitches. The good news is that Adam Rubin reported yesterday, that he will throw off a mound on Friday with the hope that he’ll be getting ready to make a Grapefruit League start in about ten day.

ZACK WILL BE BACK: Zack Wheeler was scratched from yesterday’s start with a slight strain of his right oblique. Although the Mets have not said anything, expect him to miss at least another start. It’s precautionary and considering his value to the organization it’s the smart move. This front office has made a noticeable and improved difference in how seriously they take a players injuries no matter how minor. In all honesty, I couldn’t say the same thing about the last regime.

SPRING AHEAD: Four more days until I check into my hotel in St. Lucie and will begin covering the team again from Mets camp. It’s been a strange and new experience reporting about the team while being 500 miles away, and I look forward to covering them the old-fashioned way again beginning next week. I promised Joe D. some exclusive player interviews for MMO so look for those. And I look forward to bringing you some more insights from Sandy and his staff as well. Be good everybody.

The post Mets Matters: News Good On Feliciano, Murphy and Santana Working Their Way Back, Sandy Speaks appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

It’s like if you worked at a bakery baking cakes and pies. Your shift is five hours long. In one hour, you’re able to bake one cake or two pies. If you spent zero hours on cakes and five hours on pies, you would have zero cakes and 10 pies at the end of your shift. If you spent one hour baking cakes and four hours baking pies, you would have one cake and eight pies—and so on and so forth. For every hour you spend making cakes, your opportunity cost is two pies.

I applaud you for making it past this introduction. Thanks for bearing with my baking analogy. The reason I bring up opportunity cost is because there are many things it can be applied to—like the Mets’ bullpen for example.

This offseason, the Mets have focused on tweaking their ever-underachieving bullpen. Jon Rauch will take his 3-7 record and 50-percent save-rate talents to South Beach. Ramon Ramirez will jet back to the West Coast—hoping everyone in the Bay missed his subpar 2012 season. Good thing we have Frank Francisco locked up for another year at $6.5 million…

The Mets have plenty of options. As a result, the bullpen has struggled to find an identity. Here are some of the relief acquisitions the Mets have made this offseason:

• Scott Atchison
• Pedro Feliciano
• LaTroy Hawkins
• Brandon Lyon

I’ve looked at all the Mets’ relief pitchers to see whose numbers are best in particular innings. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll break down the best potential candidates for the back end of the bullpen. While the Mets have a plethora of young bullpen arms, I decided to look at the players who had at least 10 innings pitched in that particular inning last year¹.

Five players have 10 innings pitched in the 7th inning. Here are their stats.

• Scott Atchison: ERA – 2.76 / WHIP – 0.99 / BA – .220 / OBP – .258 / K/BB – 3.33
• Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 2.92 / WHIP – 1.16 / BA – .222 / OBP – .314 / K/BB – 1.75
• LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 4.26 / WHIP – 1.39 / BA – .280 / OBP – .315 / K/BB – 2.00
• Brandon Lyon: ERA – 3.86 / WHIP – 1.43 / BA – .263 / OBP – .323 / K/BB – 3.00
• Bobby Parnell: ERA – 2.20 / WHIP – 1.43 / BA – .237 / OBP – .333 / K/BB – 1.56

One could say that Atchison’s stats are the best out of these relievers and he should pitch in the 7th. One could also say that his stats are more dominant in the 8th and that he should pitch there instead. Here are the qualifiers for the 8th inning:

• Scott Atchison: ERA – 0.00 / WHIP – 0.77 / BA – .174 / OBP – .208 / K/BB – 6.00
• Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 3.44 / WHIP – 1.56 / BA – .261 / OBP – .357 / K/BB – 2.06
• LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 1.27 / BA – .268 / OBP – .305 / K/BB – 3.00
• Brandon Lyon: ERA – 3.42 / WHIP 1.25 / BA. – .244 / OBP – .303 / K/BB – 3.43
• Bobby Parnell: ERA – 2.86 / WHIP – 1.41 / BA – .311 / OBP – .333 / K/BB – 5.00

If we apply opportunity cost, we would discover that the cost of playing Atchison in 7th is greater than if he pitched in the 8th. Opportunity cost can be measured by solving for the difference between his numbers in the 8th and the next best stat line in that inning. Then you compare it against all other innings he could potentially pitch in. For example, let’s compare the opportunity cost for Atchison pitching in either the 7th or 8th inning. Those are the only two innings he qualifies for. Arguably, the next best alternative in the 8th inning is Hawkins. Here are their 8th-inning stats side-by-side:

• LaTroy Hawkins: ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 1.27 / BA – .268 / OBP – .305 / K/BB – 3.00
• Scott Atchison: ERA – 0.00 / WHIP – 0.77 / BA – .174 / OBP – .208 / K/BB – 6.00

Differences (all favor Atchison): ERA – 1.84 / WHIP – 0.50 / BA. – .094 / OBP – .097 / K/BB – 3.00

Compare that to the differences in the 7th between Atchison and Feliciano (arguably the best alternative).

• Pedro Feliciano: ERA – 2.92 / WHIP – 1.16 / BA – .222 / OBP – .314 / K/BB – 1.75
• Scott Atchison: ERA – 2.76 / WHIP – 0.99 / BA – .220 / OBP – .258 / K/BB – 3.33

Differences (all favor Atchison): ERA – 0.16 / WHIP – 0.17 / BA – .002 / OBP – .056 / K/BB – 1.58

To figure out the final opportunity cost, take the two sets of differences for each inning and find the difference between them.

Differences between 7th and 8th inning (all favor 8th): ERA – 1.68 / WHIP – 0.33 / BA – .092 / OBP – .041 / K/BB – 1.42

We do this because we’re assuming that he’s going to pitch in either the 7th or 8th inning. So if Atchison pitched in the 7th, you would still have to factor in the differences between him and Feliciano in that inning. They just don’t disappear.

If we assume that all these variables are true, then we can determine Atchison’s potential opportunity cost. Just looking at ERA, it would cost the Mets Atchison’s 1.68 if he pitched in the 7th rather than the 8th.

By interpreting the given information within these parameters, the best potential 8th-inning pitcher would be Atchison. It’s not completely scientific. Crazy things happen in baseball, but this gives us a more educated look at the Mets’ bullpen choices from an economic perspective.

I’ll be back with more projections later.

¹I’m including Feliciano’s last season, which was in 2010 with the Mets. I would take his stats with a grain of salt considering he hasn’t pitched in two years. That being said, the Mets are in no position to be picky.

The post Revamped Mets Bullpen Could Surprise In 2013 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Terry Collins won’t have much to look up to in 2013.

Jon Rauch was one of the few dependable arms in the Mets bullpen last year.  But in 2013, his 6’11” inch frame will be casting shadows on the mound at Marlins Park.

Various sources have reported that Rauch has signed a one-year, $1 million contract to pitch for the stripped-down version of the Miami Marlins.  He will more than likely pitch in Miami for a few months, get a few tattoos, then get shipped off to a pennant contender for a bunch of prospects at the trade deadline.

Rauch’s departure, coupled with the non-signing of 6’10” Chris Young and the non-tendering of 6’7″ Mike Pelfrey will make the Mets a much shorter team in 2013.  In fact, as of this scribbling, no player on the Mets’ 40-man roster is taller than 6’4″.

It’s possible the Mets just thought the 34-year-old Rauch was getting up there in years.  Perhaps they believed Chris Young was about to break like an outfield wall in front of Rodney McCray.  Or maybe they expected Mike Pelfrey to eventually bite off his tongue while throwing a pitch.  For all we know, perhaps the Mets just found a new way to cut costs by spending less money on fabric for the tall players’ jerseys.

But one thing’s for certain.  The light stanchions at Citi Field will be the only things casting shadows on the mound now that Rauch, Young and Pelfrey have all cautiously lowered their heads under the home bullpen gate for the last time.

Jon Rauch will be soaking rays in Miami in 2013.  Mike Pelfrey will be dodging snowballs and line drives in Minnesota.  Chris Young will be trying not to get hurt wherever he winds up.  None of these behemoths will be pitching for the Mets in 2013.   It looks like a long season just got a little shorter for the Mets.

The post The Mets Just Made The 2013 Season A Lot Shorter appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

BOBBY PARNELL, RHP

PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS: Actually, considering his new role entering spring training, the expectations of Bobby Parnell – he of the fastball of 100 mph. – were minimal. Parnell could not seize the closer, set-up and even starter roles when given the opportunity in previous seasons, so the Mets dropped him to the seventh inning in the wake of signing Jon Rauch (set-up) and Frank Francisco (closer) from Toronto in the offseason. Parnell has exceptional stuff capable of three figures on his fastball, but hasn’t consistently commanded his secondary pitches or been able to challenge hitters with his location and pitch selection. In addition, that overpowering fastball often didn’t have movement and looked like it was on a tee. Anybody’s fastball can be hit if there’s no lateral or dip movement. So, knowing his inconsistencies, despite his potential, the Mets penciled Parnell in for the seventh inning role.

2012 SEASON REVIEW: Parnell struggled early as five of eight inherited runners scored against him in April. However, Parnell righted himself and only four more out of 20 scored the rest of the season. When Rauch hit the skids and Francisco was injured and erratic, Parnell inherited their roles and was exceptional. Parnell was 1-1 with two holds and three saves (no blown saves) in September, and went 2-1 with a save in August. Parnell still had his fastball, but his sinker and command was much better as the season progressed. Parnell finished at 5-4 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Parnell had streaks of wildness in the past, but last season walked only 20 in 68.2 innings pitched. He also struck out 61 and batters hit .249 off him with a .303 on-base percentage. The batting and on-base averages were career bests.

LOOKING AT 2013: Parnell made $504,000 last season, and will be offered arbitration for 2013. With Rauch not expected back and Francisco having another year remaining on his contract to close, expect Parnell to be slotted into the eighth-inning set-up role, or close if Francisco isn’t physically able. The Mets still view him as their closer-of-the-future – again. It takes some pitchers longer than others to reach their potential and Parnell had been erratic since 2008 through the end of last season. I don’t know if Parnell will ever fulfill his long-range expectations, but for the first time in several years the Mets aren’t pulling their hair out over him. That has to be a plus, right?

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First and foremost, the team’s pitching staff desperately needs another overhaul.  To a certain point, that will come in the eventual promotion of the Harvey, Wheeler, Familia and Mejia contingent.  That however won’t get it done in the long run.  While RA Dickey has proven himself as one of the game’s elite (albeit awkward) pitchers, the rest of the starting staff has been disappointing.  Jon Niese remains inconsistent and Johan Santana has been a mess since in June no-hitter.  Then we get to the bullpen…  The truth is bullpens are always in flux as its historically difficult for many relief pitchers to maintain a high level of play from year to year, but the Mets have had extremely poor luck.  From the current crop, its realistic to think only Francisco, Edgin and possibly Rauch find themselves on the roster next season.  That’s a great deal of turnover for a team supposedly headed in the right directly.

A look at the rest of the roster finds a variety of players who were being counted on to take a step forward, but ultimately failed miserably.  Here is a look at just a few:

• Andres Torres, who was acquired last winter as a band-aid in center field, has been repeatedly hampered by injury and has struggled at the plate all season.  For much of the season, he has found himself second fiddle to rookie, Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  Definitely not the situation Mets’ brass hoped for when envisioning the 2012 season in their head.
• Lucas Duda was handed the spot in right field in an effort to find a place for his bat.  His offense, unfortunately, has abandoned him.  That, combined with his defensive liability and what has been described as a poor attitude has found him beached in Buffalo with his opportunity wasted and his value shattered.
• Jason Bay…oh where do we start.  More inuries and more ineptitude at the plate have finally cost Bay his everyday spot in left.  Batting well under .200 this season, Bay is likely on his way out despite what Sandy Alderson recently said about the $19 million he is still owed on his current contract.
• Josh Thole was the Mets best bet coming into the season behind the plate.  As is the case with everyone else on this list, he hasn’t gotten it done.  A team can stomach a singles hitter if they justify their spot on the roster with their defense.  Thole has repeatedly struggled to keep the ball from going to the backstop and can’t throw anyone else on the base paths.  He’s not an everyday major league player, no matter what way you try to cut it.
• Ike Davis has probably been the biggest surprise disappointment this year.  Mired in a terrible slump for the first two months of the season, Ike has never really turned it on this year.  The saving grace to his season will be his power numbers, which have not slumped nearly as much as his average and will ultimately salvage his spot for the time being as the Met’s first baseman of the future.

Much of this didn’t rear its ugly head until the team fell off the pace, but now it has become clear that the organization still has a great deal of work to do before they become a legitimate contender again.  With that said, the resurgence of David Wright is most positive thing to come out of 2012.  He has once again solidified himself amongst the best third baseman in baseball.  Moving around the remainder of the infield, Ruben Tejada’s patient approach at the plate and stout defense have proven to be a quality replacement for the departed Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy has come a loooong way at second base.

The issue remains that outside of those guys, and RA Dickey of course, the Mets as a whole haven’t improved much.  It was fun to field fully home grown lineups, but its obvious the answer to the team’s woes aren’t within the organization right now. The 2012 season hasn’t yielded the results any of us had hoped.  There is no reason to believe the Mets are only a few players away from success and an argument can now be made that the organization has actually gone backwards this year.  Yes, despite the successful first half, the 2012 season has proven to be a costly one for the New York Mets.

Follow me on Twitter at @RobPatterson83

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