NOTE: Since there have been many relievers shuffled on and off the roster, we are only evaluating those who have received substantial opportunities to pitch and are still in the organization.

David Robertson. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

David Robertson: A

Stepping in as the team’s closer, Robertson has done everything he can to keep the bullpen afloat. Even with a pedestrian month of June, Robertson boasts a pristine 2.06 ERA/3.59 FIP with 46 strikeouts and 13 saves in 39 1/3 innings (10.5 K/9). The 38-year-old has cut his walk rate down from 13.3% to 7.1%, which is his lowest mark since 2015. Robertson’s cutter has been particularly effective, registering a negative-9 run value with opponents hitting just .143 against it.

Adam Ottavino: C

Coming off arguably the best year of his career in 2022, Ottavino received a two-year contract to remain in Flushing in the offseason. This year, he has struggled to replicate his success, as his ERA has risen to 3.97 and his FIP is up to 4.79. Walks have plagued the 37-year-old, with his walk rate nearly doubling from 6.2% to 11.1%. He’s also allowed five home runs in 36 1/3 innings after surrendering just six all of last year. Ottavino’s strikeout rate is down too, and his average fastball velocity has dropped from 94.8 miles per hour to 93.6. Most of Ottavino’s work has come in the eighth inning of games, but he owns a 6.00 ERA in the eighth inning this year. Ottavino is expected to do plenty of heavy lifting for the Mets, and they will need him to turn it around in the second half.

Brooks Raley: B+

In his first month as a Met, Brooks Raley struggled to a 4.76 ERA and eventually was placed on the injured list with left elbow inflammation. Since returning on May 14, Raley has been fantastic, allowing just two earned runs in 20 innings with 23 strikeouts and not allowing any homers. All told, Raley owns a 2.30 ERA and has allowed runs in just four of his 38 appearances.

Walks have been a bit of a weakness for the 35-year-old, as he’s issued free passes at a nine-percent rate this year, up from 6.9% in 2022. The southpaw has actually been much more effective against righties, holding them to a .179/.313/.268 slash line as opposed to the .267/.328/.433 line that lefties have against him. His 3.57 xERA, 3.98 FIP, and 4.47 xFIP indicate that he may regress a little, but he’s also held his opponents to just a 26.5% hard-hit rate and an 85.9 MPH average exit velocity.

Drew Smith: C-

Much like last year, Drew Smith got off to a fast start to begin the season. Through May 12, he owned a 1.88 ERA and had yet to allow a homer in 14 1/3 innings. Since then, he’s endured a 10-game suspension for having an illegal substance on his hand, and has a 6.46 ERA with four homers surrendered in 15 1/3 innings. While Smith’s fastball has registered a strong negative-9 run differential, his slider, curveball, and change-up have a combined plus-9 mark. Opponents are slugging upwards of .600 against each of Smith’s secondary pitches. Smith’s walk rate is up as well to a career-worst 10.5%. With the Mets’ pitching depth running thin, Smith will likely continue to receive high-leverage opportunities, giving him a chance to redeem himself from his lackluster first half.

Jeff Brigham: D

Similar to Drew Smith, Brigham was strong out of the gate, owning a 2.76 ERA through his first 16 appearances of the season. Since May 27 though, Brigham has been tagged for 12 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings (8.10 ERA) and while he’s only surrendered 11 hits in that span, he’s issued eight walks and hit four batters. The 31-year-old was optioned to Triple-A on July 3. The long ball has been the downfall of Brigham’s season, as he’s surrendered six in just 29 2/3 innings. Opponents have torched Brigham in high-leverage spots, to the tune of a 1.188 OPS, and five of the six home runs he’s allowed have been in late and close situations. Brigham’s 3.98 xERA and 4.65 xFIP indicate that he could improve, but he should stay away from pitching in big spots.

Dominic Leone: D

Another pitcher who wasn’t on the Mets’ Opening Day roster, Leone has had an up-and-down tenure as a Met. He pitched four straight scoreless outings from May 23-June 2 but then was charged with a loss after giving up a two-run homer to Brandon Belt against the Blue Jays on June 4. He had six straight scoreless appearances from June 7-18, including getting the win on June 14 against the Yankees, but was charged with a loss when he surrendered two-run homers to Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz against the Astros on June 21. Currently, Leone has a 4.74 ERA/5.02 FIP and is working on a string of five consecutive scoreless appearances.

Like most of the Mets’ pitching staff, Leone has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, giving up five homers in 24 2/3 innings. He’s been hit hard in high-leverage situations, to the tune of a 1.115 OPS, and opponents have a 1.025 OPS against him in late and close spots. Leone has been an above-average reliever as recently as 2021, giving reason to believe he can be productive in the second half.

John Curtiss: C-

After spending a year recovering from Tommy John surgery, Curtiss broke camp with the Mets and was solid through his first six appearances. However, he allowed four runs in his next two appearances and was sent to Triple-A on April 21. He was recalled to the majors on April 29 and gave up runs in consecutive outings before getting sent back to Syracuse on May 4. In his latest stint with the big club, Curtiss was strong, allowing just one run in 4 2/3 innings before getting optioned back to Triple-A on June 19. His 3.22 xERA and .198 xBA indicate that Curtiss can be an effective option out of the Mets’ bullpen if he gets another shot in the majors.

Grant Hartwig: B

The right-hander made his major league debut with a scoreless inning against the Astros last month. Hartwig has allowed only one run in 11 1/3 innings to start his big league career and he’s had four straight scoreless outings. The walks are a tad high at six, but he’s allowed only seven hits and has a 55.2% ground ball rate.

Previous report cards: Starting Pitchers, Catchers, Infielders

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Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Another series, another loss for the New York Mets. With a chance to right the ship against another underachieving team, the Mets instead became that get-right opponent for the Cardinals. The usual suspects showed up: the opposing home run ball, starting pitching ineptitude, struggles with runners in scoring position at the worst times, errors, controversial decision-making from the manager, and the bullpen inevitably proving those decisions to be questionable. Even the return of Pete Alonso could not get the Mets going. They are now as close to the bottom of the National League as they are to a playoff spot (5 1/2 games).

3 Up

Megill Masters Citi Field

Perhaps Tylor Megill‘s next start can truly be predicted by where he’s pitching. Another start at Citi Field yielded another strong start from the right-hander. Megill went six innings and gave up just four hits and one earned run with no walks and seven strikeouts. Naturally, the one run came on a homer, but the fact that it was solo was a big boon for Megill.

It certainly helped that he had a 3-0 lead after one and 5-0 after three, but the Mets have blown enough such leads in recent weeks for Megill’s ability to hold the lead to be notable. The biggest threat against him came in the fifth, when Willson Contreras homered to lead off the inning, followed by a double from Jordan Walker and a Dylan Carlson hit by pitch. This is when Megill often falls apart, but he bore down to strike out Paul DeJong. He was aided when Omar Narváez caught Walker stealing third and followed it up with a strikeout of Tommy Edman to end the inning.

The fact that Megill needed just 90 pitches to get through six was also encouraging. Laboring just to get through five has been a struggle throughout his career.

Megill now has a 2.79 ERA at home with a .216/.316/.328 slash line against him in 38 2/3 innings. He does have a 4.28 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP at Citi, which may suggest that some regression is coming. However, compared to his stats in 30 1/3 innings on the road—7.42 ERA, 6.00 FIP, 5.16 xFIP, .341/.420/.514—the Mets’ home ballpark has been a safe haven for Megill so far this season.

Pham-tastic

Tommy Pham continues to hit. With a 4-for-12 series including a homer and four RBIs, he is now up to .252 with an .809 OPS. His long ball tied a back-and-forth finale at seven in the fifth inning, making it a whole new game after the Mets’ pitching faltered early.

Over his last 15 games, Pham is hitting .340/.382/.740 with 17 hits, four home runs, four walks, 13 strikeouts, and three stolen bases. He has nine extra-base hits in 11 June starts (13 games played). On the season, Pham now has an .833 OPS in 75 plate appearances against lefties, which is one of the main reasons the Mets brought him in.

Pham’s play over the last month has been one of the few bright spots for the struggling Mets.

Baty Picks It Up

A hitter headed in the opposite direction has been Brett Baty, who is slashing just .222/.304/.323 over his last 30 games. A 3-for-8 slate in two games isn’t necessarily a major breakout, but Baty will take positives wherever he can find them. His key moment was a two-run double off Adam Wainwright in the bottom of the first in the series opener to give the Mets a 2-0 lead.

Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

3 Down

Pitching to the Fences

The Mets continue to be victimized by the home run ball. Megill was able to limit the damage to one homer with no one on, but Kodai Senga gave up two homers scoring three runs, and Carlos Carrasco gave up another two to score three. The bullpen joined the fray in the finale, as John Curtiss gave up a solo homer and Adam Ottavino blew a tie game in the ninth by giving up a solo homer to Nolan Arenado.

Mets pitching has now allowed 100 long balls on the season, the third-most in baseball. Their 1.42 HR/9 ratio is the second-worst. Their rotation has allowed 1.46 HR/9, which is the sixth-most, while their relievers are the worst in baseball with 1.35 HR/9. It’s a collective effort of misery.

Why Ottavino?

Ottavino was the goat in the finale, surrendering that ninth-inning home run to Arenado. However, the question is why he was in the game in the first place. David Robertson had tossed a perfect eighth inning on just eight pitches. He is generally the pitcher the Mets turn to for the opponents’ big thumpers, in this case Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado.

Although Ottavino had struck out both players the day prior, that was exactly the point: it was the day prior. Ottavino often doesn’t pitch well on back-to-back days, while Robertson had not pitched in three days and was fresh. Buck Showalter once again pushed the wrong button in a perplexing way, and it came back to haunt him.

Catchers Circa 2022

Narváez started the first game of the series, while Francisco Álvarez caught the other two. They combined to go 1-for-11 in the series, the lone hit coming from Álvarez in the middle game. This looked like the 2022 catching tandem at the plate. Narváez is now just 2-for-14 since returning from the injured list, with both hits being singles. Álvarez, meanwhile, is hitting .167/.200/.417 in June, his four home runs the saving grace for his 8-for-48 showing so far.

The Mets travel to Houston for a three-game set beginning today (8:10 p.m. ET).

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Starling Marte. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

There are several members of the New York Mets that are currently underperforming in relation to their respective preseason expectations. A number of those said individuals are deservedly getting the poor results. However, there are a few who, based on their underlying metrics, are experiencing some bad luck or undeserved outcomes. Which Mets are falling victim to this phenomenon?

Starling Marte

The 34-year-old outfielder enters Sunday slashing a woeful .224/.313/.306. This is good for a .618 OPS. Starling Marte also only has one home run and four doubles. These five extra-base hits are an extremely low figure for an individual who has built his career thriving in that category. It has arguably been the slowest start in the 12-year veteran’s career.

Marte owns an xBA (expected batting average) of .262, 38 points better than his actual figure. Meanwhile, his xSLG (expected slugging percentage) is a staggering 99 points better than his actual .306 figure. Both are extreme indicators that Marte is experiencing a plethora of bad luck at the plate.

Despite the hitting struggles, Marte is still doing a good job drawing walks (56th percentile) and not striking out (80th percentile). Additionally, he is stealing bases at a rapid rate – eight in 24 games, which is on pace to shatter his 18 in 118 games last year. So, it has not all been bad.

With positive regression in the offing for Marte at the plate, based off the higher expected than actual statistics, and the fact he is excelling elsewhere, one can expect him to be back to his strong ways soon. This would do wonders for a Mets’ offense that has struggled to score as of late.

Tommy Pham. Photo via Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham isn’t seeing a lot of play time, as he is serving as an almost-exclusive bat against left-handed pitching. However, in his 46 at-bats, it has not gone well. The 10-year major league veteran is batting a meager .196 and his current OBP of .283 is 70 points off his career average. Pham is suppose to be the Mets’ weapon against left-handed pitching, but has yet to be that consistently.

Throughout his career, Pham has thrived at hitting the ball extremely hard and drawing walk by his innate ability of not chasing pitches. Coincidentally enough, he is still doing both of those things this year. However, he is not getting the results yet.

Pham’s hard hit rate is 45.7 percent, which is comfortably above the league’s 38.7 percent average. Meanwhile, his walk rate, which is once again largely influenced by his lack of chasing, is also three percentage points higher than the league average. However, much like Marte, Pham is getting unlucky results.

Specifically, this is evident by his xBA of .273, xSLG of .469, and xwOBA of .345. All much, much higher than the results he is experiencing. Pham coming around, and getting his deserved results, would go a long way in helping the Mets finally conquer left-handed pitching. Again, if he keep striking the ball hard and being selective at the plate, his luck should turn.

Brooks Raley. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Brooks Raley

Brooks Raley has had a very interesting Mets’ tenure so far. Through 14 outings, 12 have been scoreless, but in the two non-scoreless outings he allowed a total of six runs. The more alarming aspect of these outings is the 11 hits he has allowed over the 11 1/3 innings. Raley has also allowed three home runs, a bugaboo that has seemingly effected most Mets’ pitchers.

A deeper dive into his underlying metrics shows that 11 hits may be a tad deceiving. Raley currently owns an xBA of .242 but the actual batting average against is .250. Not a huge difference, but it’s something.

In regard to the home runs, his xSLG is .434 (still above league average, but his actual slugging percentage allowed is much higher at .523. One would expect, when he returns from injury, both the number of home runs and hits he has allowed should regress.

Outside those occurrences, the left-handed reliever has done a good job limiting hard contact overall. He sits in the league’s 93rd percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 83rd percentile in average exit velocity. He is also doing a good job at not walking batters, as his 98th percentile walk rate indicates. There is a decent bit of good going on with Raley’s game as well.

Overall, his ERA of 4.16 is still high, but better than his actual 4.76 mark. Raley’s career history shows hes likely to iron out the kinks and become more the pitcher the Mets brought him in to be. Despite this, as the numbers paint, he is experiencing some bad luck to make matters even a little worse.

John Curtiss. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

John Curtiss

The last individual on this list just got called back up from Triple-A (he did not make an appearance while with the team). Before being sent down, John Curtiss threw 10 1/3 innings for New York, allowing eight hits and five runs (4.35 ERA). He has also posted a below average FIP of 4.70.

However, like the three other men on this list, Curtiss has experienced some bad luck. The right-handed pitcher’s xERA of 3.11 is a huge difference from his actual 4.35 mark. This expected figure is a result of doing a terrific job of limiting hard contact (above the 50th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard hit rate against). This has also resulted in an xBA and xSLG which rank in the league’s 84th and 69th percentiles, respectively. Bottom line is his underlying metrics have been strong.

Despite the bad luck, which should turn if Curtiss continues to limit the hard contact, his walk rate is alarming – 24th percentile in the majors. Additionally, he is struggling in inducing swings and misses as well as chases. He must continue to induce that soft contact to be effective. If he keeps doing so, he will emerge as a very effective arm for the Mets going forward especially with some positive regression surely coming his way.

Final Thoughts

As always, expected numbers are always just that. They ultimately do not matter as the product on the actual field determines the wins and losses. However, the expected numbers are a good predictor of future results. And, if the four above individuals keep at their current pace, expect each of them to perform much better. Something that should help the Mets get out of the little run the ball club finds themseleves currently in.

All statistics via Baseball Savant, Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs.

The post Four Mets Currently Underperforming In Relation To Their Metrics appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

New York Mets pitcher Brooks Raley has been placed on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation, the team announced on Saturday afternoon.

In corresponding moves, RHP John Curtiss has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. RHP Adam Ottavino has been reinstated from the paternity list and LHP David Peterson has been optioned to Syracuse.

It isn’t surprising that Peterson has been optioned to Triple-A. The lefty struggled in the rain-shortened 4-0 loss to the Braves on Friday, allowing four runs on five hits, including giving up a three-run homer to Matt Olson. Plus, with Max Scherzer returning from suspension and Justin Verlander returning from injury next week, someone was always going to have to make way in the starting rotation.

That man has proved to be Peterson.

In regards to the Raley injury, it is another blow in a long list of blows already absorbed by the Mets just a month into the 2023 season. Their pitching in particular has been ravaged, and losing Raley is yet another substantial setback. The Mets can’t afford to keep losing bodies from their bullpen.

Despite one roughing outing against the Brewers, Raley has proved to be the left-handed reliever the Mets have long craved. Prior to his last outing against the Nationals on Thursday, where he allowed two earned runs, Raley had gone 10 straight appearances without allowing a run. He already boasts eight holds in his 13 outings too.

Raley owns a 4.76 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 11.1 innings pitched so far in 2023. He’s been a reliable presence in what has been an overworked bullpen. Even with a heavy workload in the early going, Raley has been dependable and solid and maybe his less than ideal last outing can be traced back to the left elbow inflammation he’s now suffering with.

Given all of their other issues they have suffered with through the first month of the 2023 season, the Mets can’t afford anymore significant injuries to their bullpen and the hope will be that Raley’s injury isn’t anything too serious.

The post Brooks Raley Placed On IL With Elbow Inflammation appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets continued finding ways to win this week, beating the Dodgers two games out of three despite pitching struggles and being shut out by Clayton Kershaw. The final game came in tribute to Metsmerized founder Joe D, may he rest in peace.

It was a good time for the Mets to get the Dodgers, who have scuffled out of the gate. Still, the Mets are giving no apologies for beating a team that won 111 games last season when they’re down.

3 Up

Nimmo Continues to Rake

Brandon Nimmo continues to justify the Mets’ investment in him. He went 8-for-14 in the series, including a 5-for-5 finale with a two-run homer off ex-teammate Noah Syndergaard. Nimmo also made another fantastic catch in the opener; he seems to like showing off his glove against the Dodgers.

BRANDON NIMMO AGAIN! pic.twitter.com/4KIkoRC7x7

— SNY (@SNYtv) April 18, 2023

Nimmo is currently slashing .349/.481/.476/.957 through 63 at-bats. His batting average is the ninth-best among all qualified hitters in baseball, while his OBP is second. He has 15 walks (tied for third) vs. seven strikeouts (tied for the seventh-fewest).

Nimmo’s five-hit game was the second of his career; the last was on August 15, 2018, against Baltimore. The Mets’ record for five-hit games in a career is Keith Hernandez‘s three. Nimmo has plenty of time to go with the team to tie and even break that record.

Bullpen Bend But Don’t Break

The Mets’ bullpen once again ate up many innings in this series—12 out of the 26 innings the team pitched. In the middle game, the bullpen broke and allowed the runs that put the game out of reach, although the Mets were unlikely to come back from down 3-0, anyway, before John Curtiss gave up two runs in the eighth to make it 5-0.

However, in the two victories, the bullpen did enough. In the opener, Brooks Raley pitched 1.2 innings, allowing two hits in the eighth and giving way to Drew Smith to finish off the inning. Adam Ottavino slammed the door shut with a 1-2-3 ninth.

In the rubber game, the bullpen combined for six innings of three-run, four-hit ball with three walks and four strikeouts. It wasn’t perfect, but it did the trick. The most dangerous spot of the game was when David Robertson allowed an RBI double to J.D. Martinez in the eighth inning, making the score 3-2 and forcing an intentional walk to Max Muncy to leave runners on first and second with just one out. Robertson escaped by getting popouts from Jason Heyward and Miguel Vargas.

After Mark Canha gave the Mets two insurance runs, Ottavino gave one back on a homer to David Peralta. However, he retired the next three in order to earn the save.

With the injuries, poor performances, and lack of length that the Mets have received from their starters for much of this season, the bullpen has held down the fort. For all of their individual struggles, they somehow find a way to lock it down in the end, helping the team to a 5-1 road trip thus far and a 7-2 record in their last nine games.

Maybe Canha Can, After All

Mark Canha has endured a slow start to the season, hitting just .213/.319/.393. However, he showed some signs of life against the Dodgers, going 3-for-9 in the series, including an epic 13-pitch at-bat against Kershaw that ended in a single. In the finale, he hit a key two-run double in the eighth inning to give the Mets breathing room against the Dodgers.

Canha did not light up the stat sheet in the series, but he did several good things that could give him something to build on going forward.

Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

3 Down

Pitching Poorly for His Job

Before the season started, I argued that David Peterson deserved the rotation spot vacated by José Quintana. Peterson has done anything but demonstrate that. His outing against the Dodgers did last six innings, but he allowed six runs on seven hits, including three home runs. Peterson’s ERA is now 6.10 on the season, and his FIP is 5.49. His saving grace is that his xFIP is 3.56, and the BABIP against him is .368; this suggests that he may be getting somewhat unlucky. However, his 2.18 HR/9 allowed is more than double his rate from last season and continues to victimize him.

Peterson will certainly be around for the time being due to the Mets’ injuries in the rotation and Scherzer’s likely looming suspension. However, with the return of Justin Verlander expected in two weeks and Scherzer’s timeline roughly the same, the lefty could find himself the odd man out in the rotation.

Marte Misery

Starling Marte had a very poor series against the Dodgers statistically, going 1-for-12 with six men left on base and two double plays. To add injury to insult, he left the finale with neck stiffness.

Marte was the Mets’ most consistent hitter last season, finishing the year with a .292/.347/.468 stat line. The team dearly missed him down the stretch, and his lack of health may have been the single biggest reason for their first-round exit from the playoffs.

In the early going of this season, though, the ball is not bouncing Marte’s way. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both below average, but they’re actually both higher than in 2022; for the most part, throughout his career, Marte’s success has not come from being a masher. However, his xBA is in the 67th percentile for hitters at .271, while his actual average is just .233.

Many of Marte’s other underlying metrics are actually better than they were last season, including barrel rate, xSLG, xwOBA, strikeout rate, and walk rate. These all suggest that the ball will eventually start bouncing his way with more regularity.

The Mets will need to check on Marte’s neck, as he previously strained it during a stolen base attempt against the Marlins on April 9.

Wrong End of a Milestone

Kershaw is, perhaps, the most dominant pitcher of his era. The Mets have experienced that firsthand, as Kershaw owns a career 11-0 record and 2.03 ERA in 17 appearances against them.

Still, New York got Kershawed in the middle game of the series, as he completely shut them down through seven dominant innings. He allowed just three hits against no walks, striking out nine. 77% of his pitches went for strikes.

It was Kershaw’s 200th career victory, and the Mets were his victim. They continue to struggle against left-handed starters this season, slashing .198/.291/.323/.613 against them in nine games. Kershaw was the best of the bunch.

The Mets conclude their road trip with a four-game stint in San Francisco to play the Giants.

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Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

The Mets got revenge on Monday night, defeating the Padres 5-0 in their first meeting since the Friars knocked them out of the 2022 playoffs. Max Scherzer gutted through five innings, striking out six batters while holding the star-studded lineup to zero runs.

Scherzer was removed after the fifth inning due to his high pitch count, and Buck Showalter turned to John Curtiss with a two-run lead to face the top of the Padres lineup. Curtiss walked Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts after retiring the first two batters of the inning. The right-handed reliever, however, hunkered down and struck out Matt Carpenter on three pitches to retire the side.

Curtiss has been a savior in the Mets bullpen so far this season. After his clean inning on Monday, the right-handed reliever lowered his ERA down to 1.47 and hasn’t allowed an earned run since March 31, his first outing of the year. Despite walking two batters on Monday, Curtiss has also kept base runners to a minimum and has a 0.789 WHIP through 6 1/3 innings.

Curtiss was originally signed by the Mets on April 6, 2022. The reliever missed the whole season due to Tommy John surgery, but the Mets signed him know he recently had surgery in hopes he could pay dividends in 2023. The signing has impacts the whatever success the Mets have had in 2023. It’s amplified because multiple arms—like Edwin Díaz, Bryce Montes de Oca, Sam Coonrod, and Tommy Hunter—are on the injured list for the foreseeable future.

The Mets will need Curtiss to be successful throughout the season to stabilize their bullpen. Adam Ottavino and David Robertson are going to carry the load in the eighth and ninth innings, but right now, the Mets don’t have a solidified guy to be the bridge in the seventh inning. Drew Smith, Dennis Santana and Brooks Raley have all struggled in those limited roles so far.

Curtiss has emerged as the bridge to the later innings for the Mets in high-leverage situation. In his five outings in 2023, Curtiss has only pitched before the seventh inning twice—one on Monday, and the other against the Brewers on April 5. He didn’t allow a run in either scenario. If Curtiss continues to be dependable for the Mets, don’t be surprised to see him earn more high-leverage moments moving forward.

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Jimmy Yacabonis, Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

The New York Mets announced another round of cuts this morning. The team announced that relievers T.J. McFarland and Jimmy Yacabonis were assigned to minor league camp, while former Marlins’ bullpen piece Jeff Brigham was formally optioned to Triple-A. This leaves John Curtiss, Stephen Nogosek, Dennis Santana, and Elieser Hernández fighting for the three remaining bullpen spots.

Both Yacabonis and Brigham had themselves very strong springs. Yacabonis threw seven innings where he only allowed two runs (2.57 ERA) and striking out eight. Meanwhile, Brigham threw 7 2/3 innings where he struck out 10 and only allowed four hits and three runs (3.52 ERA). Yacabonis was signed via a minor league contract earlier in the offseason while Brigham was brought over via trade. Each will surely factor into the bullpen at some point during this season.

McFarland struggled the most out of the three. The left-handed pitcher allowed 11 hits and six runs over eight innings this spring. That is good for a woeful 6.75 ERA. McFarland was one of the arms gunning for a left-handed reliever role out of camp, but, as his statistics indicate, came up very short. The Mets signed him to a minor league deal earlier in the offseason.

As for the aforementioned four pitchers listed above battling for what seems like the last three spots, Curtiss owns a 2.70 ERA over 6 2/3 innings pitched. Further, Nogosek has allowed three runs over five innings and Santana owns a 3.38 ERA over eight innings. Lastly, potential spot starter and long man, Hernández, has struggled, posting a 7.45 ERA and allowing 12 hits over 9 2/3 innings.

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Jul 18, 2022; Los Angeles, CA, USA; National League relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) of the New York Mets speaks during media availabilities at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Allow me to channel my inner Brad Pitt for a second and get this out of the way: “Guys you’re still trying to replace Díaz and we can’t do it. Now what we might be able to do is recreate him, recreate him in the aggregate.” Here is the spoiler to this article, at this current moment in the middle of March, they do not need to trade for Alexis Díaz or David Bednar.

If the Mets did decide to go down the trade route, however, our own Jack Markowski looked at potential trade targets. And, yes, both the younger Díaz and Bednar are included in that list.

Win Probability Added (WPA on FanGraphs) is a cumulative statistic that adds how much win probability a player adds over the course of the season. I like this stat to measure a team’s bullpen and relievers in general because it does not punish relievers for a few bad outings and it gives them more credit than WAR for their in-game contributions.

Relievers have an enormous impact in terms of their ability to sway game by game outcomes and WPA reflects that more than WAR. No reliever really came close in terms of being in the top of the WAR leaderboards, but five out of the top-10 pitchers in terms of WPA were relievers.

Okay, so here is the good news. The Mets bullpen was 11th in baseball in terms of WPA in 2022. Here is the bad news: Edwin Díaz had a 3.60 WPA while everyone else combined for -0.57 WPA. The piece of good news Mets fans can be happy with though is that David Robertson had a 2.63 WPA and Brooks Raley had a 1.09 WPA in 2022. Adam Ottavino had a more mediocre 0.49 WPA but some amount of regression in the positive direction should help the veteran righty. Ottavino had a 1.24 FIP in low leverage spots, a 4.28 FIP in medium leverage spots, and 4.57 FIP in high leverage spots last year. The sample size was quite larger in low leverage spots so one can hope/expect that a more balanced performance in medium and high leverage situations will lead to a higher WPA for Ottavino.

Add that to the fact the Mets have more relievers with options which should help them avoid leaving guys who are struggling on the Major League roster. The bottom of the Mets bullpen combined for a -2.56 WPA, and the regulars like Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez, and Drew Smith all had negative WPAs.

Aside from Robertson, Ottavino, and Raley, the Mets will not have a lot of relievers that should and will get a long leash on the roster. For example, I really like John Curtiss but if the Curtiss experiment does not work out, the Mets can be a lot more decisive than they were with say, Seth Lugo. This is why I am not all aboard the Zack Britton train. They have been heavily going in on getting relievers they can cycle through in an attempt to find the best bullpen. Britton feels like a move for the sake of making a move and he could be an arm they hang onto for longer than they should.

The Mets still have a bullpen with effective arms and they can more than hold the fort down until the deadline. Also just looking at the top bullpens from last year, the Astros, Mariners, Yankees, and Dodgers did not have a Díaz type arm in their bullpen. All of those bullpens were built on amassing failed starters, waiver claims, and unearthing arms in trades.

At the end of the day, replacing 60 innings of a high leverage reliever like Díaz is easier than replacing one of their top three starters or one of their top five hitters. The Mets still have high expectations and they should have confidence in their existing high leverage arms to step up to start the season. As Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs shows in his article, the Mets playoff percentage is still at a very high 77.7% and their World Series percentage only dropped 1.4%. The Mets would have been great with Díaz, but they will still manage to be very good without Díaz in 2023.

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John Curtiss. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

The New York Mets made a couple of pitching decisions late on Saturday night when they sent right-handed pitches Jose Butto, Connor Grey, Eric Orze, and Grant Hartwig, as well as lefty Josh Walker, to minor-league camp. The Mets will still need to figure out who will be the fifth starter as well as the last couple of spots in the bullpen. Manager Buck Showalter believes that the last 10 days of camp will be important to make these decisions.

“There’s a track record there you lean on if they are healthy and you kind of throw out some things, but everyone is kind of jockeying for position in those last 10 days,” Buck said.

Lefty David Peterson looks like he’s a near lock ahead of Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill, and Elieser Hernández to win the fifth starter spot until José Quintana returns from his fractured rib. That leaves Buck’s toughest decision to the back of the bullpen.

The Mets know they have star closer Edwin Díaz, veteran setup men David Robertson and Adam Ottavino, lefty Brooks Raley (Buck says he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day), and right-hander Drew Smith locked into the bullpen. That leaves likely three spots up for grabs.

Most of the pitchers still in camp vying for those three spots have pitched well including Bryce Montes de Oca (before he left the game today with a potential injury), John Curtiss, Sam Coonrod, Jeff Brigham, Stephen Nogosek, William Woods, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Tommy Hunter. Rule 5 pick Zach Greene, veteran lefty T.J. McFarland, and lefty Zach Muckenhirn are the only bullpen arms that have struggled to this point.

Showalter noted on Saturday night, after another rough outing by Greene, that it would be great to keep an arm like Greene’s in the organization. Certainly sounds like Buck knows the roster limitations combined with the performance of Greene is going to make it tough to stick with the Mets. Furthermore, McFarland and Muckenhirn chances of making the team heavily rely on the health of Raley’s hamstring strain.

Sam Coonrod. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

• Curtiss: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 8 K
• Coonrod: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K
• Yacabonis: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K
• Greene: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 5 K
• McFarland: 5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Muckenhirn: 2.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (0 ER), o BB, 5 K
• Woods: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• Hunter: 5 IP, 0 R, 5 K
• Nogosek: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
• Brigham: 4 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

Curtiss, the Mets’ spot starter for the scratched Kodai Senga on Saturday, likely has the inside track as a veteran with a recent track record of major-league success. The Mets signed Curtiss last year as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and then picked up his option for this season. The former Ray has been dominant this spring with only one baserunner allowed and eight strikeouts in four innings.

All of Curtiss, Coonrod, Brigham, Nogosek, and Montes de Oca have the upper leg for the final spots given they’re on the Mets’ 40-man roster that is full. Nogosek is the only player of the group that is out of options meaning the Mets would have to place him on waivers to get him to Triple-A Syracuse if he doesn’t make the big league roster.

“Those last 10 days when everyone gets a little different look in their eyes and everyone starts taking these clock issues real seriously,” Buck said.

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John Curtiss. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Entering spring training, the Mets’ bullpen was an area that was going to be closely monitored. The reasoning for that is because of New York’s offseason approach, which has left two or so open reliever spots on the roster.

Before spring started, one of the top candidates to fill one of those spots, contingent on a strong spring, was former Marlins’ pitcher John Curtiss. Well, thus far, he has emerged as one of the favorites.

Curtiss was signed to a two-year deal that included a club option in April of 2022. New York signed him knowing he had to spend a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Rehab apparently went well, so the Mets followed their plan and exercised the team option this offseason. Thus far, it seems like it was the right choice.

Curtiss has faced 13 hitters this spring and has struck out eight of them. He has also only allowed one to reach base. The right-handed pitcher has been nearly perfect so far.

Specifically, Saturday night, Curtiss only needed seven pitches to get through another scoreless frame. Each of the seven pitches were strikes, as he struck out two and induced an one-pitch ground out.

Even before surgery, Curtiss has shown the ability to be effective at the major-league level. In 2020, he posted a 1.80 ERA across 25 innings. Meanwhile, in 2021, he threw 40 innings with Miami posting a strong 2.48 ERA and 3.22 FIP. Unfortunately, injury struck and Curtiss was sidelined until this spring. Though, as we have all seen, early returns have been terrific.

After Saturday night’s outing, Curtiss explained that in comparison to before he got surgery, his stuff feels more consistent. He believes that has to do with his arm feeling much better than it did before the surgery which is enabling him to get to his slot better. He added that his fastball feels the same, but, he is still working on getting his slider a bit “harder.”

Regardless, it has been a terrific start to spring for the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher. If he stays on his current trajectory, he should easily fill one of the remaining slots in the team’s bullpen.

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