With the injury, the Mets are back down to a relatively thin rotation that includes some large question marks. Jose Quintana, who has been much better as of late, still owns an eighth-percentile 5.20 xERA. David Peterson, who somehow owns a 5-0 record, has performed as one of the more luckier starting pitchers in the majors; 5.56 xERA versus 3.14 ERA. Lastly, there is Tylor Megill (5.20 ERA), who was thrusted back into a major-league role after Christian Scott went down with injury, and once again struggled on Saturday.

Couple the current over-performers with the new injury to Senga, and the pre-existing injury and struggles of Scott, the Mets are in desperate need of rotation help if they want to continue their quest for a wild card berth. It appears that the team is fortunately well aware of that as Joel Sherman of the NY Post confirmed that the Mets are now active in the starters’ market. So, as the July 30 MLB trade deadline quickly approaches, where can the Mets turn to for help?

Blake Snell Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Blake Snell

After holding out deep into the free agency, the 2023 Cy Young winner finally settled for a two-year deal worth $62 million with the second year of that deal being a player option. The left-handed Blake Snell then got off to an extremely rough start in 2024, battling a couple different injuries, a late start, and overall struggles on the actual mound when he found himself healthy.

Luckily, it seems as if Snell, finally healthy, is finding his groove. Since returning from injury on July 9, Snell has turned in five starts; 24 innings, eight hits, two runs (0.75 ERA), seven walks, and 30 strikeouts. His season ERA has been lowered from 9.51 to 5.10 over that stretch. The most recent performance, on Saturday, saw Snell strikeout 15 over six scoreless frames.

Looking at his season as a whole, despite the dreadful start, Snell’s analytical profile is still extremely strong. His xERA stands at 3.55, much less than his 5.20 actual figure; signifying he’s experienced some bad luck. He is doing a great job suppressing hard contact (73rd percentile average exit velocity and 90th percentile hard-hit rate) and getting strikeouts via swing-and-misses (71st percentile strikeout rate and 91st percentile whiff rate).

With Snell, there will always be the control issues, and add in the injury woes he has had to start the season, there is quite a bit of risk in acquiring him. However, these last four games cannot be ignored and the analytical profile paints a similar pitcher to what he was in his Cy Young-winning 2023 campaign.

According to Jon Heyman of the NY Post, it appears the Giants are certainly open to moving Snell. With a $30 million player option next season, and the Giants trending toward the need for a rebuild, the question of how much Snell would cost is an interesting one. Especially given how strong he has started to pitch. Another interesting factor; the Mets are already reportedly interested in another Giants player in Michael Conforto.

Jack Flaherty

After battling through injuries the past few seasons, Jack Flaherty has quietly emerged as one of the better starters in the American League for the Detroit Tigers this season. Flaherty’s 2.5 fWAR checks in at 11th in the AL, while his 2.95 ERA is ninth. Across 18 starts, the 28-year-old right-handed starter has tossed 106 2/3 innings posting 133 strikeouts and only 19 walks.

Flaherty’s analytical profile in 2024 is also quite strong. As mentioned above, his ability to strikeout opposing batters has been one of the best in the big leagues. His strikeout rate ranks in the league’s 93rd percentile, thanks in large part to a 94th percentile whiff rate and 78th percentile chase rate. He is not allowing hard contact either; as both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity against rank in the 72nd percentile. He is doing all this without walking batters; owning a 93rd percentile walk rate.

It has been a terrific bounce-back season for Flaherty, and with his one-year, $14 million deal expiring after season’s end, he is likely to cash in during the offseason. Given the current landscape of the market, Flaherty is likely one of the top starters remaining, this despite being a rental. With the Mets seemingly being tied to left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin every offseason, would a package deal with both Flaherty and Chafin, albeit likely pricey, make sense?

Erick Fedde

Former Washington Nationals pitcher Erick Fedde was once a starting pitcher the Mets were very interested in during the offseason. However, he signed a two-year deal worth $15 million with the Chicago White Sox. This interest has supposedly been reignited as Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported the Mets have indeed checked in on Fedde after the injury to Senga. Given his performance thus far in 2024 with the White Sox, he is one of the more sought out pitchers on the market ahead of the deadline.

Fedde revived his career in Korea as a member of the KBO’s NC Dinos. Fedde captured the KBO’s Choi Dong-won award in 2023, which is equivalent to the Cy Young award. He posted a 20-6 record with a 2.00 ERA over 30 starts and 180 1/3 innings, totaling 209 strikeouts to only 35 walks and 137 hits. These numbers were also good enough to win the KBO’s Triple Crown. He parlayed that success into a two-year deal and a very successful 2024 season, thus far.

After posting a 5.41 ERA across his six-year Washington Nationals career, Fedde has posted a 2.98 ERA across 117 2/3 innings in his return to the majors so far this season. He has allowed only 99 hits to go along with 104 strikeouts. The analytics say that his 2.98 ERA may be a bit deceiving, but the overall picture is still very strong. Fedde ranks above the league’s 60th percentile in xERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate.

Not only is the 31-year-old right-handed starter having a solid season, he is under contract in 2025 for an extremely valuable $7.5 million. Given this, one would assume that any potential trade for Fedde would not come cheap. Maybe, as is the case with some of the others mentioned on this list, the Mets would be interested in packaging him with along with reliever John Brebbia.

Jameson Taillon. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jameson Taillon

The Chicago Cubs are enduring another subpar season which means they are likely to sell once again. One of their potential chips is starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. Taillon has not only had a strong 2024, but he would also be able to help the Mets beyond this season. The 32-year-old right-handed starter is under contract for $18 million per year through the end of 2026.

The first season of Taillon’s four-year deal with Chicago did not go as planned. He tossed 154 1/3 innings, however, he posted an ERA of 4.84 and FIP of 4.61. Luckily, for the Cubs and the 32-year-old, Taillon has bounced back thus far this season. Through 17 starts, he has posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.77 FIP. These numbers would be the best marks of his career since missing most of the 2019 season and all of 2020.

The analytical profile isn’t as pretty as the traditional numbers paint his season out to be, granted, they’re not bad by any means. His 3.68 xERA is a strong number, but indicates he has experienced some good fortune. The soft-tosser has specifically done a good job of limiting hard contact (69th percentile hard-hit rate) and does not walk batters (89th percentile walk rate). Overall, despite some potential evidence for regression, Taillon has been solid in 2024.

On one hand, acquiring Taillon would not only help the Mets for the remainder of the season, it would also lock down a rotation spot through the end of 2026. However, there is quite a bit of risk associated with acquiring the eight-year veteran. An annual average salary of $18 million is a decent commitment on a 32-year-old pitcher with injury concerns and one who is slightly over-performing in 2024. However, if he can keep the current performances up over the duration of the deal, he can provide great value and lock down a middle rotation spot for the next couple seasons.

Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi has had a very up-and-down major-league career after coming over from Japan in 2019. He owns a career 4.72 ERA, and currently owns a mark three point higher than that (4.75) so far this season. This after a career-year in 2023 where he posted a 3.86 ERA across 167 2/3 innings with a 11-6 record. What may be the most valuable aspect of Kikuchi’s major-league career; his durability. The left-handed starter has thrown at least 100 innings in each of the last four seasons.

Kikuchi’s 3.64 FIP he has posted thus far in 2024 would be the second-best mark of his now six-year career. His xERA of 3.97 further indicates that the 4.75 ERA is a bit deceiving and he has likely been a victim of some tough luck and poor fielding behind him. Further analysis into Kikuchi’s analytical profile paints a pitcher that has been doing a solid job in generating strikeouts (75th percentile) and whiffs (72nd percentile); 130 punch-outs across 115 2/3 innings. The analytical profile overall paints him as a middle-of-the-road starter, which would be upgrades over current Mets Megill, Peterson, Scott, and even Quintana.

The 33-year-old is slated to be a free agent at season’s end, carrying a salary of only $10 million. This will likely lead to him being one of the more sought out starters at the deadline, especially for teams who are looking to buy on a budget. Given this, and the fact that the Mets’ rotation currently features three left-handed starters, the team may want to go a different route. However, if they chose to deal for the Japanese starter, he would be an instant upgrade over several current options in the rotation.

Final Thoughts

After hitting what seemed like rock bottom earlier in the year at 22-33, the New York Mets are poised to contend for one of the three wild card spots for the remainder of the 2024 season. This puts president of baseball operations David Stearns in an extremely interesting spot. All of a sudden, the team is poised to be a buyer rather than seller. Something that appeared to be an outlandish proposition just months ago, and is not really in line with how the team’s timeline forecasted entering the season.

For those reasons, Stearns would be wise to not “over-buy” and potentially compromise the ultimate goal of building a sustained winner through a strong farm system. If that is possible to keep that mindset while acquiring any of the five mentioned above, the Mets would be a lot better for it.

Of course, it is much easier said than done, especially with some of the names out there (likely Snell), however, that is what the excitement of the trade deadline is all about.

The post Five Potential Deadline Starter Replacements For Kodai Senga appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The search for low-cost relievers and bounce-back starters has already begun. In the last two weeks, Stearns has signed Cole Sulser, Austin Adams, and Kyle Crick to minor league deals, and also inked former Yankee Luis Severino to a one-year deal. Needless to say, Stearns is already off to the races. Of course, the Mets are likely still looking for ways to fill out the relief corps as many available pitchers offer both upside and unique attributes that make them attractive at low costs to playoff-contending teams.

Below is a list of pitchers who have track records of success, are coming off of injuries, have serious upside, or have unique characteristics (arm slot for many of them) that make them worth a look in free agency.

Aug 7, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher Kirby Yates (39) pitches during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Pomeranz, LHP (34)

While Drew Pomeranz hasn’t pitched since 2021, has had continued bouts with elbow soreness, and had surgery early this past season, he isn’t going to retire just yet. In his last two seasons, 2020 and 2021, he was elite with sub-2.00 ERAs, and if he can regain form, he will surely be a bargain for whoever takes a flyer on him. Seeing him throw in a pro day would make sense after he got rocked in his final rehab outings with Triple-A El Paso near the end of the summer, but if he has some baseball left in him, he should be taken seriously. It’s also worth noting Pomeranz was acquired by Stearns in 2019.

Brad Hand, LHP (33)

Brad Hand is a familiar face to Mets fans after a brief tenure in Queens in 2021 and is a good buy-low candidate in the 2023 offseason. Despite a poor ERA of 5.50 in 2023, he had more encouraging peripheral stats (4.70 xERA, 4.02 FIP) due in large part to his strong walk (8.1%) and strikeout (25%) rates. Lefties out of the bullpen are eternally valuable and the Mets could use another with Brooks Raley currently the only reliable lefty in their pen. Hand limited hard contact last season and still registered strong strikeout numbers. The Mets should pull the trigger. Hand is only one season removed from a 2.80 ERA campaign. 

Shintaro Fujinami, RHP (30)

Shintaro Fujinami‘s command struggles are no secret, but neither is his 100 mph fastball. In a not-so-surprising fashion, when Fujinami was traded from Oakland to Baltimore, he improved significantly. In his 49 innings with the A’s, he had 30 walks, 51 strikeouts, and an 8.57 ERA. With the Orioles, he threw 29.2 innings with just 15 walks and 32 strikeouts to go along with a nearly halved 4.85 ERA. He started throwing his downright nasty splitter and slider significantly more after the trade, taking away from fastball usage which helped the command and overall results.

Kirby Yates, RHP (36)

Kirby Yates barely pitched for three seasons (2020-2022) before having an incredible bounce-back season in 2023. Last season, Yates had an impressive 31 percent K-rate with 80 strikeouts in 60 innings in relief. While his 14 percent walk rate was high, those kinds of whiff numbers make the true outcomes palatable. Known for his demonic splitter, Yates features a fairly even mix between his four-seam averaging around 94, and the splitter. His splitter has nearly 14 inches of vertical movement difference from his fastball, making it a sure-fire strikeout pitch. Yates’ velocity was also a good indicator of health as he was within 0.5 mph of his 2019 average velocity last year.

John Brebbia, RHP (34)

John Brebbia had a strong strikeout rate of 29 percent in 2023 and used his slider as his primary pitch. He throws a four-seamer to go along with the slider, averaging in the mid-90s with the heater. While he doesn’t do anything out of the ordinary, his sliders still hold up, making him an apt replacement for Adam Ottavino, despite their fastballs being different shapes.

Adam Cimber, RHP (33)

Adam Cimber was non-tendered by the Blue Jays last week. He was placed on the injured list in June and didn’t make another appearance on the season as he recovered from a shoulder impingement. Usually, shoulder impingements are not long-term issues, indicating he may be ready for the start of 2023. Depending on his recovery timeline he could be an interesting addition as another low-slot reliever with low walk rates. He had a fantastic 2022 season, with an ERA just north of 2.00 in 70-plus innings.

Tim Hill, LHP (33)

Tim Hill was recently non-tendered by the Padres but is another side-arm pitcher with a bit of extra velocity. He struggled with the Padres in 2023 down the stretch, but still boasts an elite fastball with one of the best vertical approach angles in the game. He also has low walk rates (~7%) but has extremely high ground ball rates too (60+%). The ground ball rates make him reliable and indicate that his ERA of 5.30 was likely a bit inflated, purely by his home runs allowed (7). This issue could likely be solved if he was slightly less reliant on fastballs as he used them nearly 95 percent of the time.

The post The Stearns’ Edge: Low-Cost Free Agent Relievers appeared first on Metsmerized Online.