We now know the ‘when’ is July 19. That’s the day one of the best in franchise history joins the rest.

It’s easy to claim Wright as a forever Met—not because this is the only organization he played for. The seven-time All-Star took a liking to the team while growing up a deep fly ball away the Triple-A club in Norfolk, VA.

Wright wore orange and blue for 14 seasons, breaking the team record in hits, runs scored, total bases, and batted in, and compiling the highest bWAR among position players. And he did it with professionalism and joy that fellow Mets fans could be proud of.

He excelled through the minor-league system after being drafted in 2001. For more than 40 seasons, the Mets pretty much had a revolving door at the third base position. July 21, 2004 ended that. It wouldn’t be long before his on-field skill and pleasant off-field demeanor were readily present.

Wright didn’t wilt in the New York spotlight. By his second full season, he had fully embraced it. Meanwhile, the Mets were emerging as a National League force.

In 2006, Wright reached his first postseason. The Mets cruised to the division title behind the best in the game at the hot corner. Wright was one of two NL players to bat better than .310 with 25 homers, 116 RBIs, and 40 doubles.

Fast-forward to 2015, and Wright was in the postseason again—his second and final time. In between, there were many successes and setbacks—both for himself and the team he represented.

By historical and logical measures, the Mets had the 2007 NL East title sewn up. But not even a seven-game lead with 17 games remaining was safe. The seams burst over the final three weeks. Wright, however, was not to blame. He had a 1.034 OPS in September with 38 hits and nine doubles. By year’s end, he became the third Met to have a 30-homer, 30-steal season along with a 149 OPS+. It’s a certainty that had New York not relinquished the division to the Phillies, Wright would have been the MVP.

Next year came another late-season demise in spite of Wright’s efforts. During this September, he posted a .993 OPS with a .416 on-base percentage and 21 RBIs. Overall, Wright’s 2008 featured a career-high in homers (33), at least 40 doubles for the fourth straight year, and his 124 RBIs were a single-season team record.

By now, the Mets were now building their roster around Wright. But their new stadium certainly wasn’t. Although he christened Citi Field with the home team’s first home run, long balls were sporadic at best. The dimensions penalized right-handed power hitters, and they especially hurt the team’s biggest name. Wright managed a mere five homers at Citi in 2009 (as opposed to the 21 he hit at Shea in ’08). He had just 10 for the year and struck out an alarming 140 times.

The cavernous Citi Field layout wasn’t the only misfortune. In a year marred by the team’s financial ruin, injury, and underperformances, the typically durable Wright found himself on the disabled list—the result of a rising fastball to the helmet during an at-bat versus San Francisco’s Matt Cain. He was batting .324 at the time. He returned two weeks later with post-concussion symptoms and hit only .239 for the rest of the season.

As the Mets sank deeper into mediocrity, he remained the reliable star fans could cling to. In 2010, despite a higher strikeout rate (24%) and the lowest batting average since his rookie year, he regained his power stroke and hit out 29 while driving in 103 (the fifth time he eclipsed 100 RBIs).

Wright was on a Hall of Fame track as he approached age 30. But 2012 would be the last time he’d play in at least 135 games. From there, we were left to enjoy Wright in small doses. Although he was healthy enough to participate heavily in the All-Star festivities in and around Citi Field in 2013, a right hamstring injury a month later limited him to 58 RBIs. A left rotator cuff contusion early in 2014 cost him a significant portion of his power. He hit only eight home runs.

Dependability had been one of Wright’s signature traits. From 2005 through 2010, he played in 935 of the Mets’ 972 games. Seeing him man third base and bat in the heart of the Mets order had become a summer ritual in Queens. There was little reason to think his May 2011 lower-back stress fracture, which kept him out for two months and derailed any hopes of a productive year, was anything but an aberration. The way he played in 2012, with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, and a .306 average in 156 games quieted any concerns.

Through it all, Wright remained as stand-up a person as ever. He spoke with tact on behalf of the team in good times and in bad. He never threw anyone under the bus even when it would have been very easy to do so. And through this trial by fire, he became the de facto leader in the clubhouse—a role that would only grow in stature.

Following the 2012 season, he agreed to a seven-year contract extension to effectively ensure him “Met-for-life” status. This had been a franchise that shied away from long-term contracts to players in their 30s, but Wright was a special case. He would later be named the fourth captain in team history.

But while he was gaining stature, he was losing opportunities to build a Cooperstown resume. In 2015, while trying to recover from another hamstring issue, he was diagnosed with spinal stenosis. This was considered, at best, career-threatening. But Wright was not about to let a pennant race go by without taking part in it.

When the leader of the Mets rejoined the club in August 2015, he homered into the upper deck in Philadelphia in his first at-bat. In a key September matchup with second-place Washington, Wright scored from first base on a double. Unleashing energy and frustration of the recent past, he demonstratively fist-pumped and let out a primal scream as the Mets were closing in on a division title. In the NL East clincher in Cincinnati, he put the icing on the cake to help finish off a blowout victory. And it was appropriate that in the first World Series contest at Citi Field, Wright delivered a booming home run to left field in the opening inning of Game 3.

The 2015 postseason, however, was his last sustained period of on-field action. He could only get through 37 games of 2016 before his back flared up again. Career mortality wasn’t just nipping at his heels, it had him by the ankles and wouldn’t let go.

Wright was too prideful to go out a broken man. With an opportunity to show his appreciation to New York on the field, he vowed to be in uniform for the last series of the 2018 season. On September 29, his final appearance, an anticipatory Citi Field sellout crowd there to say goodbye. Wright charged onto the diamond alone to his customary spot at third base. After four innings, he departed to a long ovation and tears in many eyes.

The announcement of David Wright’s number retirement and induction into the team Hall of Fame coupled with the acquisition of Juan Soto brings about a certain synergy. Money notwithstanding, the 26-year-old superstar chose the Mets above everyone else. When Wright signed his contract extension in November 2012, under much different circumstances, he did the same albeit under much different circumstances. Regardless of what happened after, it was a rare showing of loyalty even if it wasn’t reciprocated.

Wright’s dedication to the Mets—through the best and worst days—is a big reason why he connected so well with the fans. And that’s what will make July 19 so special.

The post Retiring No. 5 is No Doubt the Wright Choice appeared first on Metsmerized.

There are players we refer to as Mets legends legitimately. There are players we jokingly call “Mets legends.” With all the respect given to Adrian González‘s career, one that is very respectable and includes five All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, and two Silver Sluggers, he is a “Mets legend.”

After a 2017 season that was plagued by a back injury, the 35-year-old made an attempt to extend his career by joining the Mets on the last year of his existing contract.

Starting at first base on Opening Day, he went 2-for-3 with a pair of walks and an RBI in a victory over the Cardinals. On April 8, he hit a grand slam in Washington. On April 29 against his former team, he went 3-for-6 and drove in five at Petco Park. González served the role of “veteran presence” and a placeholder for incoming youngsters on a club not yet ready for contention. On a personal note, he was able to reach the 2,000-hit milestone.

June 10 was the last time he played as a Met and, as it turned out, the last time he played in the major leagues. A day later, he was released.

Back in 2006, González was a San Deigo Padre and slashed .304/.362/.500 with 24 home runs and 82 RBIs in 156 games. Over the next four years, he would have three seasons of at least 30 homers, 100 RBIs, and an OPS+ above 126. The only season when that didn’t happen was 2009…when he had 99 RBIs.

He followed that stretch with arguably his best year. In 2011, his first season with the Boston Red Sox, González slashed .338/.410/.548 with 27 home runs and a league-leading 213 hits, driving in 117. It was one of seven times in which he hit at least 25 home runs. He also won his third Gold Glove and finished seventh in the MVP voting. His best result in the balloting was fourth the year before.

When at his best, González was a consistent and dependable first baseman. In 14-plus seasons, his slash line was .288/.358/.488 with 311 homers, 2,010 hits, 432 doubles, and 1,176 RBIs.

The Case For

There was a seven-year stretch (from 2008-14) when he was among the best at his position—able to hit for power, average, get on base, and field solidly.

It was during this span that he averaged 29 homers, 108 RBIs, and had an OPS+ of 138. He also made three of his All-Star appearances, collected all his Gold Gloves, and won both his Silver Slugger Awards.

One way to figure out if a player has a path to the Hall is to find a comparable player who’s already been enshrined. In González’s case, it might be Tony Perez.

Through their age-36 season (when Gonzalez retired), the numbers for Adrian come out favorable. Perez had a slash line of .284/.346/.477 with four fewer hits and 14 fewer home runs. Gonzalez also has the edge in walks (767 to 676), doubles (432 to 345), and total bases (3,399 to 3,301).

The Case Against

The comparison with Perez ends when you take into account that the former Cincinnati Red played an additional eight seasons. Longevity is one reason, among many, that significantly hurts González’s chances.

Other comparable careers include Derek Lee, who was off the Hall of Fame ballot after one try, and Tino Martinez, who got six votes in his lone turn.

González’s 317 homers rank 41st among first basemen. his 43.5 career WAR is 43rd-highest. Another metric to consider is JAWS, which measures a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging the player’s offensive or pitching WAR over a seven-year peak. The average JAWS metric of first basemen elected to the Hall of Fame is 53.4. Gonzalez is at 39.1.

Postseason performance is an opportunity to enhance a resume. Unfortunately, the numbers for González aren’t impressive: a slash line of .266/.329/.453 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs over 189 plate appearances.

Final Thoughts

Adrián González is a classic “Hall of Very Good” player. For about eight years, his level of play was worthy of All-Star recognition. But for him to be elevated to Cooperstown-level status, he needed to either sustain his best level longer or have more production in those eight years. He should remain on the ballot, but he is not a Hall of Fame player.

As of publishing, he doesn’t have a single vote for the Hall among publicly available ballots.

The post Hall of Fame Case: Adrián González appeared first on Metsmerized.

The passion exuded by redhead Daniel Joseph Staub was not outward. He was a gentle soul with a quiet intensity underneath. He ensured each season, each game, and each at-bat had his utmost attention.

Staub didn’t become the first player to tally at least 500 hits with four clubs by accident. He totaled 11,229 plate appearances over the course of a career that encompassed 2,951 games. The 1973 season was not Staub’s best, but it was the closest he ever got to a World Series title. Despite a key injury during that postseason, he nearly willed his team to the ring.

Staub came to New York from Montreal, where he was embraced, unlike any player in that franchise’s history. “Le Grand Orange” represented the Expos’ early years. However, the locals were forced to deal with the news of a trade to Queens in April 1972. Gil Hodges, shortly before his death, insisted on getting Staub to strengthen a weak Mets offense. The Expos agreed to part with Rusty in exchange for three youngsters.

Just as the trade was devastating to Montreal’s fan base, New York reveled in getting someone of Staub’s caliber—someone who could add spice to a lineup that was getting rather bland.

Staub, who had played well for perennial second-division clubs, fed off the talent around him and the Mets benefited from Rusty’s arrival. New York jumped out by winning 25 of its first 32. Staub’s insertion in the cleanup spot expanded the possibilities of the offense and lessened pressure on Tommie Agee and Cleon Jones. Combined with their usual supply of great pitching, the Mets were six games up on Pittsburgh by May 21.

The good times, though, would end abruptly. Staub, hitting .315 with eight homers and 31 RBIs, was plunked on the right hand by a pitch from soon-to-be teammate George Stone of Atlanta on June 3. Although he tried to fight through the pain, the soreness was too much. X-rays disclosed a fractured hamate bone. It was part of an epidemic that engulfed the Mets, as Agee, Jones, and others were also set back by injuries. When Rusty went on the disabled list, the

Mets were perched in first place. When he came back on September 18, the Mets were 16.5 games out. The start of the 1973 season charted an all-too-familiar and unwelcome pattern. Staub couldn’t shake the injury that derailed his ’72 campaign, while other vital members of the Mets succumbed to similar fates.

He missed only 10 games but couldn’t get the Mets out of last place. With a little more than a month left in the regular season, they were still in the NL East cellar. A grand slam on August 27 against San Diego helped to forge New York’s resurgence.

Staub stayed at the forefront by batting .321 with five homers, 21 RBIs, and 24 runs scored over the final 33 games. He ended on a 15-game hitting streak, going 4-for-5 with two runs scored and an RBI in a 6–4 NL East clincher in Chicago.

His scorching bat kept blazing in the third game of the NLCS. Two home runs in two at-bats gave him three for the series and jump-started the Mets to a 9–2 victory that put them on the precipice of an unlikely pennant. Staub’s offense decidedly won Game 3 and his defense almost won Game 4.

Rusty made an over-the-shoulder grab in the top of the sixth to preserve the Mets’ slim 1–0 lead. In the 11th, Dan Driessen had what appeared to be a tie-breaking extra-base hit, but Staub raced back to the warning track and hauled it in.

This valiant effort, though, came with a price. As Staub secured the catch, he careened into the right-center-field wall. Though he pressed on through the Reds’ 12-inning victory, a separated shoulder made him unavailable for the deciding Game 5.

Staub’s status remained in doubt heading into the World Series. The designated hitter, introduced during that regular season, was not implemented for the Fall Classic. Manager Yogi Berra chose to sacrifice Rusty’s limitations in the field for what he could do at the plate.

Though he toughed it out, Staub’s shoulder pain forced him to throw submarine-style. It had no effect on his hitting, though. Staub batted .423 against Oakland, hitting safely in each of the six games he played. He drove in five of the Mets’ six runs while belting a pair of homers in a Game 4 victory that helped New York draw even with the A’s.

But Staub’s weary body could only take the Mets so far. Despite going 2-for-4 in the seventh game, driving in one of his team’s two runs, New York produced little else in a 5–2 defeat that gave Oakland the title.

Both the Mets and their outfielder regressed in 1974, but Staub rebounded the next year to have his best performance yet—becoming the first player in team history to surpass 100 RBIs in a single season.

A year like 1975 should’ve made him an indispensable piece to a team lacking in run-producing hitters. But team chairman M. Donald Grant had a fondness for bad ideas. Planting seeds of public discontent that would grow in the coming years, he sent Staub to Detroit for a prospect and a washed-up Mickey Lolich.

Staub returned in the early 80s to finish his lengthy career. From there, his popularity and impact in New York only got bigger.

The post Spirit of ’73: Rusty Staub appeared first on Metsmerized.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, we started to analyze the Mets’ struggles—and successes—on offense over the last couple of years. Read Part 1 here.

Today, we continue the dive into the team’s overall struggles with Part 2.

Struggles Vs. Specific Pitches

The Mets are struggling against a number of different pitch types compared to 2022. Some are also below average, but some are just worse than last season. For this measure, we’re going to go with Run Value per 100 pitches (wRV) from Statcast (listed on FanGraphs), which is not necessarily predictive for future performance but gives some context to what happened in the past.

In 2022, the Mets ranked fourth-best in wRV on four-seam fastballs at 0.52; this season, they’re ranked 13th at 0.28. That’s almost down to half the run value. Although 13th isn’t bad, considering fastballs are the most-thrown pitch across baseball (32.4% of the time in 2023, per Statcast) and the Mets have faced 32.9% fastballs, which ranks 11th-highest, that’s a large loss of run value.

The Mets have faced sliders 19.3% of the time this season, ranked 28th across baseball, but the team’s second-most frequent pitch type faced. Their wRV against the pitch is actually fifth across baseball at 0.29, which is likely why they see fewer sliders than most other teams. They were 11th in baseball in wRV against the slider last season, but it was -0.13. That’s a large improvement but on a far less frequently-used pitch.

It’s the sinker that gets the Mets in particular trouble. They’ve faced the second-highest rate of sinkers in baseball at 18%, and their wRV against the pitch is -0.60, which ranks 19th in baseball. Pitchers have identified the Mets’ weak spots. This is new compared to 2022 when they ranked 14th with a -0.14 wRV.

The Mets also struggle mightily against the changeup (-0.67 wRV, 28th) and cutter (-0.65 wRV, 24th), and they see the pitches 10.5% and 7.5% of the time, respectively. In 2022, they ranked second with 1.04 wRV against the changeup and fourth with 0.73 wRV against the cutter.

Overall, there are four different pitches that the Mets’ weighted run value has significantly decreased against compared to 2022. The only pitch that they are doing better against is the slider, but it’s at the expense of the fastball, sinker, cutter, and changeup.

Take this with somewhat of a grain of salt because of its lack of predictiveness. Still, it shows that this is a wide-ranging problem, not just limited to one particular pitch type.

Expected vs. Actual Statistics

The Mets’ team xBA is ninth in baseball at .253, but they’re 20th in actual batting average at .241. They’re 13th in xSLG at .419, but 20th in actual SLG at .394. That has led to a .713 team OPS, ranked 22nd in baseball.

In 2022, the Mets ranked second in all of baseball with a .252 xBA and eighth with a .404 xSLG. (You can see that batting stats are significantly higher in 2023 than the year prior, particularly where power metrics are concerned.) Their actual batting average was second at .259, and their SLG was eighth at .412. That gave them a .744 team OPS, the sixth-best in baseball.

Why are the Mets underperforming their expected metrics this season when they performed right about at those metrics a season ago?

Furthermore, this was not the case in 2021. The Mets’ xBA in 2021 was .238, and their actual BA was .239. Their xSLG was .393 and their SLG was .391. Their OPS was 23rd that season at .706. 2023 seems to be a different animal altogether from that perspective.

Some would view the difference in expected metrics and actual numbers as predictive of a regression to the mean and better results. Especially in light of the Mets’ lower BABIP numbers, this would seem to be the case. However, as explained here, utilizing expected stats to predict future outcomes is nebulous. The expected stats explain what was most likely to happen in the past, not what will actually happen in the future.

The one thing to note, though, is that high exit velocities and launch angles tend to perform according to their xBA. Groundballs, no matter how hard they’re hit, are more likely to be snagged by the defense. With decreased line drive rates, perhaps the Mets are encountering the bad luck of BABIP which is the bedrock of the power strategy across baseball.

Specific Players Struggling

The Mets’ offense lived and died by Lindor and Alonso last season: sometimes one, sometimes the other, and, and the team’s best, both.

The best example of this was last June. Lindor fractured his finger and hit .205/.255/.362 that month. Although Alonso hit well at .265/.351/.627, the Mets as a team hit .232/.301/.369 and scored just 4.0 runs per game, their lowest average of any month last season. They went 13-12, also their worst win percentage of all the months (if you join the five games in October with September’s numbers, as Baseball Reference does).

The Mets’ best month by record was in April when Lindor hit .282/.367/.482. Their second-best was July when Lindor hit .320/.393/.540, and their third-best was May when Alonso hit .315/.398/.611. They scored 5.79 runs per game in May, by far their best month by scoring output.

So far this season, Alonso had a stronger April, hitting .257/.328/.562. Of the two months, Lindor also hit better in April at .218/.316/.446. Predictably, the Mets scored 4.52 runs per game and had a .556 win percentage.

In other words, when one of the two is struggling mightily, so do the Mets usually go. If one or the other is scorching hot, that’s often enough to carry them to victory. If both are hitting solidly but not great, it will be up to the rest of the Mets’ lineup to determine their success.

Lindor had a poor month in May, hitting .227/.273/.412. Alonso hit .219/.339/.543, a decent OPS but a poor batting average, which made him very boom-or-bust. The Mets went 14-15 in May and scored 4.38 runs per game, which would have been the third-lowest-scoring month for the Mets in 2022 (they were worse in June at 4.00 and July at 4.36). The difference was that in 2022, the Mets’ starting pitching bailed them out through the dog days of early summer when Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer were both injured; this year, that has often not been the case.

Furthermore, the Mets’ run-scoring has been spread out very widely. They have scored two runs or fewer in 22 of their 60 games (37%), but they have also scored seven or more runs 13 times (22%). Their most common run-scored number is five (11 times), and they are 9-2 in those games, but they’ve also scored two runs nine different times and have been shut out eight times.

Overall, this kind of inconsistency points largely to being reliant on two hitters for the offense. Yes, there have been other players struggling this season, but as Alonso and Lindor go, the Mets’ offense tends to go, as well.

Are There Answers?

The issues are so manifold that it is difficult to give one particular answer. Pulling more might be a good first step as a team. Getting more aggressive within the strike zone should be a point of emphasis. But when so many good hitters are struggling so badly and cannot find their way out of it, it’s sometimes possible to chalk it up to coaching. Jeremy Barnes, the hitting coach, would be the first culprit, but Eric Chávez, last year’s hitting coach and this season’s bench coach, didn’t just suddenly disappear.

However, maybe this speaks to something far more fundamental. There is a reason that MLB teams focus far more on power than contact: because it wins games. Last season, the Mets were able to win despite low hard-hit and barrel rates with high weak contact and groundball rates. Perhaps that was an anomaly more than instructive.

Even though stolen bases are more prevalent this season than before and batting averages are up, small ball as an approach to the game is still a way of the past. Even without the shift, a single hit through the hole does not have as much value as driving the ball.

Having low strikeout and high walk rates are only two parts of the equation. Without the power, these problems are likely going to continue to plague the Mets. Francisco Álvarez had his power streak, and perhaps he will be able to be another thumper in the Mets’ lineup going forward (despite currently being mired in a bad slump). But without consistent extra base and home run power, everything needs to go right for an offense to succeed. Continuing to insist on the same offensive approach is not going to do the team favors.

Other than that, though, this may just be a team-building flaw that needs to be addressed in the offseason. That’s a sinking prospect for June if it is indeed the case.

The post The Mets’ Hitting Struggles Ring a Familiar Bell, Pt. 2 appeared first on Metsmerized.

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2023 Opening Day approaches, Mets’ 1B/DH Darin Ruf is not making a case for his placement on the initial roster. In fact, he is doing quite the opposite as he has a mere three hits in 23 at-bats. Consequently, his batting line of .130/.200/.174 is not an encouraging sign as he is continuing to hit poorly, which has been the common theme of his short Mets career.

Ruf, 36, was acquired by the Mets during the trade deadline period of the 2022 season, and they were hoping to solidify the DH position with a proven commodity on the offensive front. However, Ruf did not meet these lofty expectations as he batted .152/.216/.197 in 28 games for the club. While this lack of offensive production could be attributed to a small sample size, Ruf’s continued underperformance during spring training tells a different story.

One possible explanation for Ruf’s struggles could be the wrist soreness that kept him sidelined for the beginning part of spring training. In an article from Johnluke Chaparro of MetsMerized Online, Ruf responded with the following when asked about his ailment: “It’s just something over the last few years that’s bothered me.” Although Ruf claims that this injury has been present for several years, it is not outlandish to say that it could be impacting him on a greater scale as he grows older. It is also significant that he received an injection in his wrist as it had to be severe enough to warrant that form of treatment.

Regardless of the cause of Ruf’s hitting woes, the Mets have high ambitions to win a World Series this season. As a result, they will likely be unforgiving when it comes to deciding who will occupy the 26-man roster spots. As of now, Ruf is in competition with Eduardo Escobar, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos for the remaining position player roster spots.

Although Escobar is batting .136/.240/.182 in his short spring training sample, he is the most likely to crack the Opening Day roster out of the group as he is in the final year of his two-year, $20 million agreement with the club. Conversely, Baty and Vientos are making it difficult for the Mets to leave camp without them. Most notably, Baty is batting .333/.469/.436 in 21 spring training games. Vientos is batting .283/.316/.491 in the same amount of games, which is also impressive.

While defense has been a topic of concern for Baty and Vientos, Ruf’s lack of defensive prowess does not separate him from the competition. In fact, according to FanGraphs, Ruf posted an unsatisfactory -5 DRS at 1B, which is where the Mets have mainly placed him during spring training. If Ruf continues to hit poorly, the Mets should call into question what he can actually bring to the club if he is not a proficient fielder to go along with it.

Overall, Ruf’s situation with the Mets has been far from ideal. He is an impending free agent with a club option as is entering the final year of his two-year, $6.25M contract. As a result, he has every reason to try and produce better results this season in order to elongate his MLB career. It will be interesting to see how much patience the Mets exercise with Ruf in the coming weeks if these hitting struggles continue.

The post Darin Ruf’s Hitting Troubles Continue as Opening Day Approaches appeared first on Metsmerized.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Mets fans, an all-new episode is here!

This week Mike and I are joined by new Mets Triple-A hitting coach, Collin Hetzler!

Collin discussed his time with Driveline Baseball and how he eventually landed with the Mets organization, players at the developmental levels to keep an eye on, the excitement to work with Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty, the Jeff McNeil extension, and much more!

How has the Steve Cohen regime created such a strong minor league culture in only a couple of years? For Collin that answer is resources, which Cohen and company has made to feel unlimited:

“Absolutely, 100%. I’ve got a handful of friends who work for other teams and ask me about my experience with the Mets, and I tell them that it’s a great time to be a Met. We’ve got an owner who is a genuine fan and has given both the major and minor leagues unlimited resources, to where very often we’re not told no whenever we need something which gives us a clear competitive advantage compared to other teams in the league. It’s just a really good time to be a Met: whether it’s a player, coach, development, or anyone here…It’s exciting and only going to keep getting better.”

Watch and subscribe to the MMO Youtube channel here.

The post MMO Weekly Episode 33: Triple-A Hitting Coach Collin Hetzler appeared first on Metsmerized.

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

All Mets fans know that Pete Alonso is one of the biggest sluggers in baseball. As the questions at Jeff McNeil‘s introductory press conference suggested, signing Alonso to a contract extension must now be a top priority for Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler. If McNeil is a homegrown Met star, Alonso is a homegrown Met superstar.

Alonso has had his ups and downs just like any other hitter. Before you know it, though, the end of the season comes and he has around 40 homers and an OPS of .850 or above. Mets fans love to criticize him when things are going poorly, but ultimately, Alonso is the power behind the lineup, a bona fide thumper that the Mets have precious few of.

How has Alonso maintained that consistent power? And, given his previous performance, what should fans expect from him in 2023? Let’s take a look.

Barrels

According to MLB.com’s definition, a barrel is a “batted-ball event whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League-wide in 2015.” A barrel must travel at least 98 mph off the bat. The mean batting average and slugging percentage on such balls are generally much higher (.822 and 2.386, respectively, in 2016).

In all four of Alonso’s MLB seasons, he has attained a barrel rate at or above the 80th percentile among all hitters, ranking in the 97th, 84th, 89th, and 86th percentiles from 2019-22. Considering the positive outcomes that result from barreling the ball, it’s not surprising that Alonso has maintained a consistent power output.

Overall, Alonso’s 14.1% career barrel rate is 2.1 times the major league average of 6.7%.

Pitch Improvement

It’s interesting to note that Alonso’s Run Value (RV) on specific pitches has shifted considerably over the years. In his rookie season, he was all about the fastball and sinker, posting an RV of 17 on both of those pitches while facing them a combined 51.4% of the time. Meanwhile, the slider and curveball, which he faced on a combined 30.6% of his total pitches, yielded an RV of -5.

Alonso faced a similar diet of pitches in 2020, but his results were simply much worse. His RV on four-seamers dropped to six, while he went down to -3 on the sinker. The only other positive RV he posted was on the splitter (1), which he faced just six times all season.

In 2021, the rate of sinkers that Alonso faced ticked up to 21.8%, and he improved his RV back up to 9. Meanwhile, though he faced a steady rate of sliders (~17% for the third consecutive season), his output improved significantly, from -1 and 0 RV in his first two seasons to 5 in his third. That upward trend continued in 2022 ,when he actually faced far more sliders than he ever had before (23.0%) but mustered 8 RV.

That ability to adjust to the way pitchers are throwing to him bodes well for Alonso’s future as a hitter. He is not just a dead-red fastball hitter, as he was in his rookie season. In fact, in 2022, Alonso posted the most balanced RV totals of his career:

• 29.6% four-seamers: 6 RV
• 23.0% sliders: 8 RV
• 21.7% sinkers: 9 RV
• 9.3% curveball: 9 RV
• 8.3% changeup: 10 RV
• 7.1% cutter: -8 RV

Clearly, the cutter gave him some trouble at -4.4 RV per 100 pitches. However, the positive value on all other pitches indicates that the Mets’ overall change in hitting approach allowed Alonso to be more balanced as a hitter.

Curveball Relationship

Alonso was very boom-or-bust when it came to hitting curveballs in 2022. He faced them 9.3% of the time (232 total pitches), hitting .327 with a .592 slugging percentage (54 total PA). However, he also whiffed on 39.6% of them, and had the curveball used as a putaway pitch 21.8% of the time.

Considering the high-end potential of his swinging at curveballs, you can’t blame Alonso for doing it so often. However, he may need to focus on identifying the pitch later in an at-bat, particularly with two strikes.

High Chase Rate

The one issue that Alonso could use some work on is his chase rate. He has consistently chased pitches at a higher rate than league average, and he has never ranked higher than the 33rd percentile in the majors in chase rate. 2022 was actually Alonso’s worst season in this area, as he chased pitches out of the strike zone 33.5% of the time, which was in the 19th percentile.

To be fair, Alonso faces fewer “meatballs” than average. His career rate is 6.2%, while the MLB average is 7.2%. This means he needs to earn his hits in some way or other, and that might include chasing pitches out of the zone that he thinks he can hit. He did swing at meatballs 84.7% of the time in 2022, well above the league average of 76.1%, which means he’s identifying good pitches to hit. The question he needs to answer is why he’s swinging at so many that are not.

Improved Strikeout Rate

Alonso has improved on his strikeout rate in each of his four seasons. He went from the 18th percentile in his rookie year to the 34th in 2020, then leapt to the 61st percentile in 2021 and 65th in 2022. His walk rate has always been above average, ranging from the 59th percentile in 2021 to the 70th in 2019 and 2022. Even his overall whiff rate has improved steadily, from the 24th percentile in 2019 to the 53rd in 2022. You can see the effects of working on his pitch recognition. It’s interesting, though, that his chase rate is so high considering his improvements in other areas.

His Worst is Other Hitters’ Best

By most metrics, Alonso’s worst season was in 2020, the Covid year. Part of that may have been simply the small sample size; if you take any 57-game snippet of a player’s season when they played a total of 154 games, by natural statistical variance, there will be some down moments. However, we have also seen other players who had a down Covid year fail to rebound over the two seasons since.

Alonso’s supposed “down” year, though, was hardly a bad season. If you map out his 2020 stats over a full 561 at-bat slate (the lowest total he has posted in his three full seasons at the plate), you still get 43 homers, 94 RBIs, .817 OPS, and 122 OPS+. That means that in terms of analytics, Alonso’s worst MLB season was 22% above the league average.

Undoubtedly, his .231 average and .326 OBP were disappointing that season, as was his 0.2 WAR. However, over the course of a season, you can count on Alonso to figure it out.

Not Clutch? Not So Fast

According to FanGraphs Baseball’s Clutch metric, which compares a player’s performance in high-leverage situations compared to context-neutral ones, Alonso is not the best in clutch situations. He has posted marks of -0.93, -0.49, -0.99, and -0.32 in his four seasons, meaning that he has cost the Mets roughly between 0.3 and 1 point of win probability in clutch situations each season.

However, clutch is such a nebulous term, and the reasoning for variation so undefinable, that it makes more sense to simply look at Alonso’s results. Alonso tied Willie Mays and Joe Torre for the most game-winning RBI in MLB history by posting 27 in 2022. Although not every one of those RBIs occurred in a “late and close” situation, which is the general definition of clutch, hitting game-winning RBI is clutch in and of itself, regardless of situation.

Intentional Walks

Although Alonso was not intentionally walked as much in his first three seasons in the majors, maxing out at six, that changed in 2022. He led the NL with 16 intentional walks last season. That may have been partially a function of poor Mets DH play, which placed some combination of J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Darin Ruf behind Alonso in the lineup for much of the season. It is not coincidental that when Daniel Vogelbach first arrived with the Mets and started to rake, Alonso went on a tear, as well. Protection in the lineup may be considered invalid from an analytics perspective, but a hitter being intentionally walked frequently cannot be denied.

The Mets may want to consider putting a strong RBI threat after Alonso in the lineup, whether Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, or, if he merits it, Brett Baty.

2023 Expectations

Projection systems are notoriously bearish on most players, even given their previous strong play. Here are several projections that have been assigned to Alonso for 2023.

• ZiPS: .261/.349/.515/.864, 38 HR, 112 RBI, 138 OPS+, 4.1 WAR
• Steamer: .261/.347/.520/.867, 39 HR, 110 RBI, 4.2 WR
• Marcels (Baseball Reference): .261/.340/.490/.830, 32 HR, 96 RBI

Considering that Alonso hit .271/.352/.518/.869 with 40 homers and 131 RBIs in 2022, the ZiPS and Steamer projections seem fairly accurate for him even if they’re less so for other Mets hitters. Alonso generally provides negative defensive value, which automatically compresses his WAR potential. However, his home run total from his first four seasons makes it fairly certain that he’ll end up around 40 homers, and his other stats have been relatively stable as well.

Having the Polar Bear in the middle of the lineup is a must for the Mets. Whichever big star they target in free agency next year is next offseason’s problem; locking one of the game’s best sluggers up long-term should be Billy Eppler’s primary goal right now.

The post Full Hitting Profile Breakdown: Pete Alonso appeared first on Metsmerized.

Mandatory Credit: MLB photos via USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets have hired Eric Hinske as an assistant hitting coach, according to The Athletic‘s Ken Rosenthal. MMO has confirmed the report.

Hinske played 11 years in the majors and has been coaching since 2014.

Hinske has been a hitting coach since 2014 when he took on a position with the Chicago Cubs, a place he remained until 2017. Hinske then spent 2017 as the hitting coach of the Los Angeles Angels, where he was replaced after one season. His last job was in Arizona as the assistant hitting coach for the Diamondbacks from 2019 to June 2021.

The 2002 American League Rookie of the Year and three-time World Series champion now joins Buck Showalter‘s staff. He’ll work alongside Jeremy Barnes, who was promoted to hitting coach as Eric Chavez became the Mets bench coach.

Chavez’s promotion led to the opening of the position. In his first year as the Mets hitting coach, Chavez was praised for turning around the Mets offense. Part of that success was Barnes whose promotion may have been motivated by other teams looking into the Mets coach.

Last year’s bench coach Glenn Sherlock is transitioning to a different role on the Mets coaching staff, mainly one where he’ll work with catchers.

Hinske was looked at last season by the Yankees to replace the departure of Chavez. He was “well-liked” by the organization and was formerly a player and scout for them.

Coincidentally, Eppler was in the Yankees’ front office when they traded for Hinske and Jerry Hairston Jr. at the trade deadline in 2009.

The post Mets Hire Eric Hinske as Assistant Hitting Coach appeared first on Metsmerized.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning, Mets fans!

The Mets hired former Astros and Cardinals coach Jeff Albert to be the team’s new director of hitting yesterday. Albert spent four years as Houston’s minor league hitting coordinator and served as the major league club’s assistant hitting coach. He had two stints with the Cardinals, the first of which as a minor league hitting coach and then in that same role with the major league team for the last four years.

Latest Mets News

The Mets brought back minor league free agent Daison Acosta for the 2023 season. The right-hander was a top-30 organizational prospect before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2019. This past season, Acosta worked exclusively as a reliever for Brooklyn, turning in a sparkling 1.36 ERA with 40 strikeouts and a .146 opponent batting average in 39 2/3 innings.

The Mets hired Eddy Rodriguez to be their new MiLB Field Coordinator. Rodriguez spent the last three years as the catching coach for the Marlins.

Latest MLB News

Julio Rodríguez and Michael Harris II were named Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues. Rodríguez received 29 of the 30 first-place votes, while Harris garnered 22 first-place votes. Under the new CBA rules, the Mariners now receive an additional draft pick after the first round because Rodríguez was a top-100 prospect on the opening-day roster. Runner-up Adley Rutschman earns a full year of service time despite not coming until May.

Former Dodgers All-Star outfielder Yasiel Puig has agreed to plead guilty to lying to officials about being involved in an illegal gambling ring. According to the agreement, Puig admits to placing hundreds of bets through a third party who worked for an illegal gambling business between May and September of 2019. Puig will pay at least $55,000 in fines and faces up to five years in prison.

Before Jeremy Peña was a World Series MVP, he was just an unheralded kid from Rhode Island who attended the University of Maine. Michael Clair of MLB.com spoke with Peña and his old coaches about his journey to becoming a Houston legend.

Las Vegas will host the A’s and Reds for a two-game spring training series on March 4-5, 2023. The games will be played at Las Vegas Ballpark, which opened in 2019.

The Marlins have named Caroline O’Connor their new president of business operations. Miami is now the first team in the United States’ major sports leagues to have women operating the entirety of the team’s day-to-day operations.

The Rays have released left-handed pitcher Brendan McKay after he was outrighted off the roster last week. A once highly-touted two-way player, McKay was drafted fourth overall by Tampa Bay in 2017 and received a signing bonus upwards of seven-million dollars. However, he struggled in his only stint in the majors in 2019 and has battled arm injuries. He is out until the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

In other news from Tampa Bay, the Rays are among several teams who have expressed interest in Oakland backstop Sean Murphy. Murphy won a Gold Glove in 2021 and has three more years of team control.

The Cubs have released Jason Heyward from the last year of his eight-year, $184 million contract. Heyward struggled mightily in 48 games in 2022 before having his season cut short due to injury. Over the life of his contract, Heyward hit just .245/.323/.377 with 62 homers, though he did win two Gold Gloves.

Latest on MMO

Nate Mendelson profiles right-hander Tyler Glasnow as a possible trade candidate.

On This Date in Mets History

1988: The Mets once again fall short in their bid for an MVP winner, as Darryl Strawberry and Kevin McReynolds finish second and third, respectively, behind Dodgers outfielder Kirk Gibson.

Birthdays: Randy Niemann (67), Yennsy Díaz (26)

The post Morning Briefing: Mets Hire Jeff Albert As Director of Hitting appeared first on Metsmerized.

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

For just the second time in franchise history, the National League batting champion will be a New York Met. Jeff McNeil finished 2022 with a .326 average, narrowly topping Freddie Freeman to finish the 2022 season with the best batting average in MLB.

McNeil struggled in 2021, hitting just .251 over 140 games after hitting .319 in his first three years in the majors. This season, he returned to form and set a new career high with his .326 average.

After hitting over .300 in April, May, and June, McNeil hit just .208 in July, dropping his average from .319 to .294. The poor month looked like it would take McNeil out of the batting race with Freeman sitting at .325 to start August, but he responded with his best two months of the year in August and September/October. He hit .385 in August to bring his average up to .318 and get back in the hunt for the batting crown. In September/October, he hit .357 to take the lead.

Freeman entered Wednesday needing to go 4-for-4 to overtake McNeil, who did not play in the Mets’ final game. Despite getting hits in his first two at-bats, Freeman finished 3-for-4 to clinch the batting title for the Mets’ All-Star second baseman.

McNeil joins José Reyes as the only two Mets to win a batting title. Reyes hit .337 in 2011 to lead the National League. McNeil does however become the first Met to lead MLB in batting average.

McNeil finished with the sixth-highest batting average in Mets history. John Olerud has the record, hitting .354 in 1998, but he finished second to Larry Walker of the Rockies who hit .363 that season.

“It’s the only award I can look forward to,” McNeil said following Tuesday’s game. “I’m never going to lead the majors in home runs.”

The post Jeff McNeil Becomes First Met to Lead Majors in Hitting appeared first on Metsmerized.