Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Another potential bench option for the Mets is off the board. Outfielder Adam Duvall has reportedly agreed to a one-year, $7 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, as first reported by The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish. Duvall can earn up to $10 million with incentives.

Free Agent Outfielder Adam Duvall is in agreement with the Boston Red Sox. The deal is 1 year $7 million Dollars. Performance bonuses could get the deal up to $10 million dollars per source.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) January 18, 2023

The 34-year-old Duvall has played mostly with the Braves since 2018, and hit 38 home runs with Atlanta and Miami in 2021. Last season he slashed .213/.276./.401 with 12 homers in 315 plate appearances.  Duvall will now join a Boston outfield that includes Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran.

With Duvall no longer available, the options are running out for the Mets to find a fourth outfielder. Duvall and Andrew McCutchen were the best players available, but now the Mets will have to look elsewhere if they want to add depth.  Some of the remaining options include Tommy Pham, Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, and a reunion with Tyler Naquin.

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Adam Duvall

Position: OF

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 34 (09/04/1988)

2022 Traditional Stats: 86 G, 315 PA, 12 HR, 16 2B, 36 RBI, 61 H

2022 Advanced Stats: 87 wRC+, -0.1 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR, .278 BABiP, .293 xwOBA, -2.1 UZR, -3 DRS, 5 OAA

Rundown

A year after hitting 38 homers and driving an NL-best 113 runs, Adam Duvall got off to a dreadful start in 2022. Entering the year as the Braves’ starting center fielder, Duvall was hitting just .191/.258/.268 with two homers and 60 strikeouts across 186 plate appearances through May 31. Duvall lost his spot in center to Michael Harris, though he was able to stay in the lineup in left field due to Eddie Rosario‘s injury.

After Harris was added to the lineup, Duvall looked more like his old self. He hit .244/.302/.588 with 10 homers and nine doubles in 129 plate appearances from June 1-through-July 23 while playing solid defense in left field. However, Duvall suffered a wrist injury while chasing a foul ball and underwent season-ending surgery.

While neither his traditional nor advanced stats jump off the page, Duvall hit well against left-handed pitching, hitting .233/.262/.562 with six homers in 78 plate appearances against southpaws. The biggest concern with Duvall has always had a low walk rate and high strikeout rate, with his 6.7% mark in 2022 being right in line with his career number, and his strikeout rate rose to a career-worst 32.1%.

Defensively, Duvall was a Gold Glover in center field in 2021 and while his numbers took a bit of a step back in 2022, he has displayed an ability to play all three outfield positions effectively. Statcast ranks him in the 88th percentile in outs above average, racking up 4 OAA in center field and 1 OAA in left field. He also rates as an above-average base runner, registering 2.7 BsR and ranking in the 67th percentile in sprint speed in 2022.

Contract

Coming off a down year, Duvall isn’t expected to receive a large contract in salary or length. Spotrac projects him to sign a one-year contract worth just under $7 million.

Duvall isn’t a superstar by any means, but his power will always make him an intriguing target for teams. As he ages, Duvall may be limited to playing just the corner outfield positions, and he has played some first base in his career.

Recommendation

The Mets still have a need for a fourth outfielder and Duvall’s versatility makes him a good fit for the team. He could also serve as a right-handed complement to Daniel Vogelbach, which the team noticeably lacked with Darin Ruf‘s struggles. With J.D. Martinez signing with the Dodgers, Duvall should be among the Mets’ primary depth targets.

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