The upcoming off-season is when many Mets fans expect to see action with regard to shaping this roster for a competitive season. We’ve been through the trades that needed to be made, we’ve been through the free agents that couldn’t be signed, and we’ve been through the contracts that had to come off the books.

The farm looks healthy-ish, and now it’s time to prove that the Mets (like many other teams) can maintain a farm system while also competing during the regular season.

With that said, I am sure many of you stumbled upon Mike Puma’s piece regarding Bronson Arroyo and his potential interest in the New York Mets, right?

Let me preface my opinion by informing you that in June of 2012, I said this about Arroyo:

Arroyo is a guy I was always hoping the Mets would get after the 07 collapse. He’s an absolute workhorse. Along with that, he pitches very well against the Mets.

I meant it. To this day I feel like the Mets would have been in good shape had they gone after Arroyo heading into 2008 when many believed he could be acquired from the Reds.

Arroyo will turn 37 just prior to spring training, and while there are examples of pitchers throwing fairly well at that age (Colon, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hudson), there are many more examples to prove that a 37 year old starting pitcher, workhorse or not – is likely not going to be his former self.

That said, when MetsBlog’s Matthew Cerrone tweeted that a 3-year, $36 million deal would get this done, it was at that point that I spilled my coffee.

When R.A. Dickey was coming off a Cy Young season, one of the concerns and reasons for NOT extending him for three more seasons was due to his age and a potential decline. Valid argument if you ask me, and I’m glad they made the move they did.

So if they would trade a Cy Young pitcher who was 37 while he pitched his way to a Cy Young, why in the world would they offer a lesser pitcher of the same age a 3-year deal worth $12 million a year?

Tell you what, we’ll come back to that in a second.

If you want to look at Bronson Arroyo and think “what will he become?” the answer is Derek Lowe.

From 2002-2010 when Lowe was 37 years old, he had 300 starts – let’s compare that to Bronson Arroyo from 2005-today which he has 296 starts.

These two were both workhorses leading up to their 37^th birthday, they had similar control and strikeout stuff as well.

Following Lowe’s 37^th birthday, he’d be a starter in the Braves and Indians rotation and sport a 5.00+ ERA before becoming obsolete.

Bronson Arroyo is not Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda or Bartolo Colon. He’s had a nice long and healthy career, but to offer him anything more than a 1 year deal to me is absolutely ridiculous.

So to answer my question above, regarding the trade of Dickey just to sign Arroyo…my answer is they wouldn’t. My answer is if they were to sign Arroyo for 3 years, I’d have serious doubts about what this organization is trying to do.

My answer is, the Mets do not need Bronson Arroyo and the supposed $36million they could potentially offer him should be used to find somebody who can actually hit the ball.

Regardless of what happens with Matt Harvey, the Mets rotation still will not be as bad as their lineup heading into the 2014 off-season. I am really not sure why the need to even discuss an average 37 year old pitcher for 3 years is even being tossed around as a legitimate idea for this franchise.

Bronson Arroyo will be the 2010-2012 version of Derek Lowe, and while I was in favor of getting him back in 2008, we’re 7 years removed from that.

If the Mets could click their heels and suddenly get the 2008-2013 version of Bronson Arroyo I am sure they’d do that.

But since they can’t, they shouldn’t, and since they shouldn’t…they hopefully won’t.

The post Saying No To Arroyo! appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Oliver Perez shouldn’t even be on this team anymore.  Perez was signed not for his accomplishments since he never accomplished anything, but for his “potential.”

He has done nothing since Omar gave him that undeserved contract.  We all know why Omar signed Perez over Lowe and let’s admit it it wasn’t because of that 4th year.  Look at what Lowe has done for the Braves since signing his contract: Lowe has started 54 games, so far he’s won 25 of those games.  Oliver Perez since signing his contract: started 25 games and has only won 3 of those games!  Perez since signing that contract has been “injured” and has been downright awful!

The Mets made as many excuses as the could last year after Perez’ horrible season. This year was supposed to be different.  Perez spent a good amount of time in Arizona training before the Spring.  Of course nothing changed.  Perez was as bad as ever.  He also refused to go to the minor leagues even though he was hurting the team paying him 12 million dollars a year.

And now he’s coming back.  Instead of cutting their loses with Perez they are going to continue to let him hurt this team.  Look at the smaller market teams the last couple of seasons have done with expensive talent that has failed to produce. Detroit last year released Gary Sheffield.  Toronto last year released BJ Ryan. Earlier this season the Tampa Bay Rays released Pat Burrell.  Yet the Mets refuse to cut ties with Perez.  They would rather pay Perez to lose games for the Mets than see him go to another team or sit home and collect a paycheck.

Since it’s inevitable that Perez will be back on this team why is Manuel going to place him in the bullpen?  Perez being in the bullpen makes a weak pen even weaker and it hurts the rotation by keeping Takahasi in there.  Takahasi has been great out of the pen.  As a long reliever he’s a valuable player.  As a starter he isn’t. Since Perez is going to be on this team, let him start.  Takahasi can help this team more out of the pen than Perez can.  Just makes no sense at all.

The post Oliver Perez Is Exactly What Is Wrong With The Mets appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Let’s ignore Perez for now. There seems to be a love affair going on between some Mets fans and Derek Lowe. The fact he is 36 years old, and having one of his worst seasons, while getting paid $15 million dollars and guaranteed that money until he’s 40 years old, for some reason is ignored by many. Allow me to finally put an end to this love affair.

When deciding a pitcher’s value, I personally like to first examine stats that they have control over. A pitcher either controls the at bat, or the hitter does. Thus, to me, Strikeouts and Walks are very important. There are a lot more stats out there that can really break down a player’s season or career. For example, somebody raised the point recently that Atlanta’s defense has been poor. Fair enough, but they have the same amount of errors as the Mets, so I’m not sure what putting him in a Mets uniform would have accomplished? The days of examining a pitcher based on W-L and ERA are quickly becoming ancient. Scott Feldman is 13-4, are we going to anoint him one of the best pitchers in baseball? Of course not. 

In many ways, W-L can be a product of your team, while ERA can give you a false sense of just how good the pitcher really is. A great example would be Johan Santana versus Wandy Rodriguez. Who is having a better season? Santana in 25 starts is 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA, striking out 146, and walking 46 in 166.2 IP. Rodriguez in 25 starts is 12-7 with a much sexier 2.89 ERA, striking out 142, and walking 53 in 155.2 IP. Before stats like WHIP came into play, many would have said Rodriguez is having the better year. However, if you’re faced with those two options, I’d be shocked if anybody said Santana isn’t having the better season, even though his ERA doesn’t show it. 

To be safe, I examined Lowe’s season with mostly traditional stats, such as Strikeouts, Hits, etc. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll explain the stats briefly that I used that in some case you may not be familiar with. 

WHIP – Walks plus hits, divided by Innings Pitched.

GB/FB – Ratio of groundballs in play versus fly balls

BIPA – Balls in Play Average. This is a measure of Batting Average Against, not including Home Runs or Strikeouts.

DIPS ERA – A pitchers ERA, independent of the defense around him. Not a stat I generally pay attention to, but since somebody mentioned defense, I thought I’d share. 

So, wrapping this all up, I ask a question. Right now, would you say Mike Pelfrey’s season is worth $15 million? Pelfrey is earning just under $3 million this year, and he’s 11 years younger than Lowe. Take a look at these numbers. They are having VERY similar seasons, yet one of them is 25 and improving, and the other is 36 and regressing and making almost $12 million more. 

One thing to note, Lowe has started in 3 more games this season than Pelfrey. While some stats can remain a true measure even without equal starts, such as WHIP etc, I included a pace for stats like Hits, BB, K’s, just to give you an idea of where Pelfrey’s pace is when he hits 27 starts. 

The first row is Lowe through yesterday’s start, the second is Pelfrey’s numbers as of today, and the third is Pelfrey’s pace up to 27 starts. 

Pelfrey to me has had a below average year. I would like to think most fans would agree. Also, I am sure most are on board in thinking Pelfrey is NOT a #2 starter. One day, maybe. He’s only 25. Tom Seaver has said that a pitcher doesn’t truly learn how to pitch in the big leagues until he’s hit 100 starts. Pelfrey is at 73 right now for his career. 

My point is this. Their numbers are very similar. The K/BB, WHIP, .OBP against, BAIP, even the DIPS ERA are proof that their seasons in terms of their own performance, independent of the team they pitch for, have been very familiar. 

Yet, one of them is cashing a $15 million paycheck this season, and the other is continuing to try and grow within an organization at the young age of 25. So tell me this, would you say Pelfrey’s season earned him $15 million? I’d certainly say no to that. However, I would say that there is more of a realistic chance that when Lowe’s contract expires with the Braves after 3 more seasons, Pelfrey will have earned his paychecks, while Lowe will simply set the Braves back not only in their rotation, but in their team salary as well. 

In conclusion, we had Derek Lowe pitch on our team this year. Except, he was 6-7, 230 pounds, and aged 25 making just under $3 million. The Mets didn’t need Derek Lowe this season, and they certainly do not need him at age 37, 38, or 39. Not signing Lowe, allows the Mets to pursue a true #2 type starter in John Lackey or Rich Harden. A move that not only would make the Mets a better team in the standings, but it will also make pitchers like Mike Pelfrey and John Maine better, because they won’t be asked to be something they aren’t.

The post Pelfrey, the $15 Million Man? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

I read it on this site, other sites, and hear it on talk radio from fans. To quote directly from a fan post today on this site, “Why can’t they see we need starting pitchers? Ollie was NOT the answer.”

First, I don’t think anybody, not Minaya, not anybody ever said that Oliver Perez was, “the answer.” (Not picking on the person who made this statement. This is something more than one person has said in the past.) Oliver Perez was an investment in the bottom half of our starting rotation, and the only (yes the only,) free agent starting pitcher who was available and worth a multi-year deal.

Cross A.J. Burnett off your list, we all know the Mets couldn’t have competed with the Yankees for him, and until over the course of his 4 year contract he proves everybody wrong and proves he’s a legitimate #2 starter in this league year after year, I won’t believe it.

After Burnett, Derek Lowe was probably the most available and accomplished starting pitcher. I like Lowe, what I don’t like is 36 year old pitchers who give me 6 innings of work per start asking for 4 year deals. I also do not like hearing fans get on the Mets for signing Luis Castillo to a long-term contract at his age, but then ignoring his current season, while at the same time ignoring the fact that Derek Lowe has regressed. At age 36, in 8 less starts than he had last year, Lowe has already matched the number of earned runs he gave up in 2008. To date, he has already walked 4 more batters in 26 starts than he did in 34 starts last year. Furthermore, if Lowe was to have 8 more starts this year, he is on pace for 44 LESS Strikeouts. Also, Lowe is on pace to give up almost 30 more hits than he did last season.

If the Mets signed Derek Lowe to a 60 million contract until he turns 40 years old and he posted the same exact 2009 stats, Minaya’s critics would be all over him for it. When a 36 year old pitcher is on pace to give up more hits, and strikeout the least amount of batters he’s ever done in a season as a starter, that means he’s lost something. If he’s lost something at 36, what do you think is going to happen at 38? 39? He isn’t Tommy Glavine, Jamie Moyer or Greg Maddux, those guys had the skills to pitch in the late years of their career because of their ability to paint corners, and out think hitters. That’s not Lowe’s style. I’m sorry but to say the Mets should have signed Derek Lowe over Oliver Perez is ridiculous. Especially coming from the people who want the Mets to get younger, and stop wasting money on veteran free agents.

No other free agent pitcher signed a multi-year deal (nor were they worth one). Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe and Perez. That’s it. Furthermore, only two free agent pitchers were under the age of 30. Jon Garland, and Oliver Perez.

Garland would have been a decent 5^th starter option, but again, if you look at his numbers, Garland doesn’t exactly have the best stuff. He gives up more hits per inning pitched, and hasn’t been the same since the 2006 season which he was average at best. He’s having a career year don’t get me wrong, but he signed a 1 year deal for a reason … he was a fill-in. There is no evidence that the Mets or any team for that matter should have given Garland more than a 1 year deal.

Oliver Perez is a head case, no doubt about it, no denying it. He has the pure stuff to be a great pitcher, but he constantly gets in his own way. The days of thinking he can be a top of the line starter are gone. However, he is capable of being a solid #4/5 starter, with the potential to maybe do more.

Quite frankly, if the Mets would have signed Derek Lowe, it would have handicapped them even further moving towards the future, including this off-season. They would have been FORCED to pen Derek Lowe into the #2 or 3 spot for at least the next two years, which would mean they’d have no room to go after any top flight free agent pitcher this year like a John Lackey, or a Rich Harden.

Omar Minaya cannot turn water into wine when it comes to players being available to him in the free agent market. Last year was a weak year, and great timing for Oliver Perez to hit the market. Mets fans need to start accepting the fact that Perez was the best option available to the Mets in the free agent market, and the best investment for the future of the pitching staff.

Today, I look for a strong outing from Oliver Perez, and hope that Pedro Martinez’s last NY start ends just like his Mets career did. In disappointment.

The post Jump Off the Lowe Train. Please. appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Last night he faced Derek Lowe who was the Mets first choice to be this season’s big pitching addition to the rotation, but when Lowe signed with Atlanta it left the Mets with little choice but to re-sign Oliver Perez. Perez beat Lowe last night, but it may have been a costly win.

Perez pitched five innings and allowed four runs, but hurt his right knee covering first base in the top of the fourth inning. It was the same knee that landed him on the disabled earlier this season.

“I want to get rest and see how the knee feels,” Perez said. “It was hurting a little bit. I want to see how it feels tomorrow. I want to continue to pitch but I want to take care of my knee.”

The Mets will have Perez undergo an MRI this afternoon.

Perez was expected to start again on Sunday in a matchup against Pedro Martinez and the Phillies, but obviously depending on todays MRI results, that could change.

The post Oliver Perez To Have Sore Knee Examined appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

In the outfield, Garret Anderson will start in LF, and top prospect Jordan Schafer will start in CF. Jeff Francoeur will seek to put last season’s struggles behind him and have a productive season in RF. Francoeur remains one of the better outfield arms in the NL.

The infield remains the same as the one that finished last year. Chipper “Larreee!” Jones, fresh off of his 3-year extension, will man 3B. Yunel Escobar will play SS, Kelly Johnson at 2B, and Casey Kotchman at 1B. The Braves top power hitter, Brian McCann, will set up shop behind the plate.

Clearly, the most drastic changes are the ones throwing to McCann. After depending on 3 older and injured pitchers, the Braves went out to overhaul their rotation. They paid $60 mil for Lowe, signed Kawakimi from Japan, and traded for Javier Vasquez from the White Sox. Jair Jurrjens will be the 4th starter, and the 5th is an interesting question. Tom Glavine would have filled that spot, but he will start the season on the DL. Tommy Hanson is the top pitching prospect, and trendy ROY pick, but if he takes Glavine’s spot, the rotation will be all right-handed. So that’s why Jo-Jo Reyes is going to be in the conversation all year if anyone struggles or gets injured, Reyes is the only left-hander close to starting, but he went winless in his last 13 starts last year. Rafael Soriano will set-up for closer, Mike Gonzalez.

Notes: Derek Lowe will be making his third consecutive start against the Phillies tonight, he faced them twice in the NLCS…The Braves went 21-12 in the Grapefruit League… Prospects Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward had good springs, but will start the year in the minors… The Braves will retire Greg Maddux’s number 31 this July… In February, the Braves become the first MLB team to open a baseball academy in Spain.

The Braves could be the Toronto Blue Jays of the NL East, 84+ wins, not enough to catch the top two teams in the division.

***

Now for a game, Movie Star to Met 6 Degrees of Separation.

Can you find the 6 Degrees of Separation between Ashton Kutcher and Johan Santana.

Answer to follow in the Philadelphia Phillies preview.

The post NL East Preview – Atlanta Braves appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Ok, there are a
few situations out there. We have a void spot for starting rotation.
However, in my opinion, it’s actually two. I love my boy Jonathon Niese
and all, but I think he still needs to tune a third pitch to be
successful. Enter Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, Jon Garland,
Ben Sheets, and Tim Redding. Who do we choose? Well, it looks like Omar
is picking Derek Lowe and staying with Niese. In my opinion, I’d either
sign Derek Lowe AND Oliver Perez or sign Ben Sheets AND Oliver Perez. I
really think Ollie should be a Met again. Why? He’s a Phillie killier
and he’s a lefty. The Mets only have Johan as their only lefty starter.
Ollie is still young and has a great upside. Derek Lowe is Mr.
Consistent and Ben Sheets is just scary, both good and bad. Yes, good
being he’s absolutely filthy when healthy, and bad being he’s almost as
bad as Carl Pavano, injury-wise.

–Signing two pitchers = reasonable and very do-able at this point.

Concern
#2, left field. We currently have Fernando t-t-t-t-TATIS and Daniel
Murphy. While that’s a good platoon, it could easily be insanely
upgraded with one player. Enter Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida
(thanks Wiki). Sure, he’s a crazy act in the clubhouse; yet players,
coaches, and managers love him, or at least a good chunk of them do.
He’s deadly with the bat, but an absolute clown on the field. I don’t
care, but with him in this already punishing lineup, the Mets would
instantly be the team to beat around the NL.

–Costly + Scott Boras = not AS reasonable, but very managable if price drops.

Hi,
I’m Luis Castillo. I make a very good amount of money, even though my
knees are about to break in pieces. I also can’t run anymore and I
can’t hit. I could bunt though! What do we do about this? I don’t think
we can do anything about this situation anymore. What an ideal
situation would be to ship Castillo somewhere, eat some of his
contract, and wish Orlando Hudson could drop his price just a tad bit.
Hudson brings that nitty-gritty attitude needed for this team, much
like Wally Backman was for the ’86 Amazins. Oh, and I love the double
flapped helmet. It looks much better on him that it does for that man
named the Flyin’ Hawaiin (still bitter about them winning).

–Big ass contract isn’t gonna help at all, but there’s still a small chance of him leaving and the O-Dog coming to Citi Field.

Finally,
with all that being said, if all of the above move happen (chance is
probably 1%) the opening day lineup and rotation would look like this.

1. Jose Reyes (SS)
2. Carlos Beltran (CF)
3. David Wright (3B)
4. Manny Ramirez (LF)
5. Carlos Delgado (1B)
6. Ryan Church (RF)
7. Orlando Hudson (2B)
8. Brian Schneider (C)
9. Pitcher

1. Johan Santana (L)
2. Derek Lowe (R) / Ben Sheets (R) **
3. Oliver Perez (L)
4. Mike Pelfrey (R)
5. John Maine (R)

Note:
The lineup only looks like that because if I had Delgado, Church,
Schneider as 6,7,8, it would be too lefty heavy, thus me having Hudson
at the 7 hole to break up the lefties.

Now isn’t that just crazy folks? I wish it would happen, HEY, maybe it’ll happen. A Met fan can only dream right?

——

That’s right ladies and gentlemen. Your own Minor League Reporter for two years has started his own blog, entitled ‘Retire 31‘. I just started it a few days ago, but if you like what you read, please make sure to give it a look. Just click this link and read away! Thanks to everyone!

The post What If These Things Happened? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Thanks to user “shea” over at the shoutbox for the link.

The post Mets Offer Lowe A 3-Year Deal appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets, trying to create additional options for their rotation, are attempting to sign free-agent right-hander Tim Redding, major-league sources say.

Redding, 30, is seeking a two-year contract.

The Mets are trying to sign a more prominent free-agent starter such as righty Derek Lowe or lefty Oliver Perez, but Redding could fit in the back of their rotation.

Redding had an unremarkable season last year with the Nationals, going 10-11 with a 4.95 ERA in 2008 and tying for the team lead with 182 innings.

He probably would have fared somewhat better playing for a contender, but not that much better. The Mets see him purely as an additional arm they can bring in to compete for the fifth spot with Jon Niese and perhaps Bobby Parnell.

However, Redding is looking for a two year deal, so he may not be the perfect match for the Mets.

The post Mets Want Tim Redding For Back Of Rotation appeared first on Metsmerized Online.