Fan Shot by Doug 

Who is the real Steven Matz?

Steven Matz is a 28-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the New York Mets. Matz is a former 2nd round pick from Ward Melville High out on Long Island (I bet you never heard that before, right?).

Matz was an ever so slightly below average pitcher in 2019 (as measured by ERA+, barrel %, exit-velocity against, K%, spin, xwOBA against). And really, that’s basically who he’s been since he broke into the big leagues in 2015.

But I bet that I haven’t been alone in waiting and waiting, for the real Steven Matz to emerge from the abyss of mediocrity. Maybe it’s that Matz garnered much ballyhoo as he carved up the upper minor leagues from 2014-2015, consistently drawing plus grades from scouts on his fastball and changeup, and landing him atop various versions of the Mets prospects lists that we all agonize over. 

Maybe it’s because Matz actually still looks the part. Matz still averaged 93.3 mph on his two-seam fastball in 2019, cresting as high as 96 mph, and when he wasn’t having his occasional ‘knocked-out-in-the-second-inning’ blow up, he generally could be counted on to acquit himself well on the mound more times than not. 

But, Matz hasn’t quite been able to shake the label that perhaps something is still missing. Some have suggested a mental component. Matz’s mound demeanor is not stoic, especially when trouble brews on the basepaths. Al Leiter, another mercurial lefty from Mets days of yore, worked with Matz last spring, and perhaps, strictly anecdotally and loosely observationally speaking, they succeeded in helping Matz to stay focused on the mound.

Still, here we are. The numbers don’t lie. So I took a look at the underlying data to try and answer those lingering questions: who is the real Steven Matz? Why has he not broken out? Is there another step forward in his career progression?

The first thing that everyone needs to understand about Matz is that he’s not the bat-missing, overpowering, archetype of modern preference. Matz doesn’t throw a four-seam fastball at all. His two-seamer spins at a very modest 2100 rpm, and at its particular velocity, really cannot compete well for swings and misses in the upper part of the strike zone. Matz also does not own a particularly high-spin breaking ball either (his highest spin pitch is his curveball, which spins at approximately 2440 rpm and features more horizontal movement than the drop that is typically desired).

Matz does have some things going for his two-seamer. Because it rotates on a roughly 10 o’clock spin axis, the pitch gets an above average amount of armside run. While sitting 93 mph with the heater is only major league average these days, Matz’s quick, short-arm delivery hides the pitch well. Coupled with the late horizontal movement in on left-handed batters, and off to the end of the bat against right-handed batters, it’s a legitimate foundation.

Matz’s next best weapon is his changeup…or is it?

The most interesting thing that I turned up during my deep-dive on the Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball websites, is not only how effective Matz’s curveball was last year, but against whom, and why.

Matz’s curveball in 2019 was easily his most effective breaking pitch. Check out the following for each pitch type for Matz in 2019:

Changeup – xwOBA against: .408

Slider – xwOBA against: .300

Curveball – xwOBA against: .228

Breaking pitches are designed to miss bats. Here’s how well each pitch fared last season:

Changeup – Whiff %: 27.1%

Slider – Whiff%: 19.7%

Curveball – Whiff%: 26.6%

So, while Matz could still get lots of whiffs on his plus changeup (which offers both above average arm-side fade and tumble, and a has good velocity separation from his fastball of 9 mph differential), it turns out that it got hit pretty hard last season when contact was made. Batters slugged .510 against the changeup, higher than any of his other pitches.

But the curveball, which spins less and drops less than major league average, was very effective at missing bats and minimizing damage. How can that be?

It turns out that the answer likely lies in the idea of pitch tunneling, or spin mirroring, put another way. The basic idea behind this is that batters can read the seams on pitches as the pitch is in motion. Even though the ball is spinning fast enough to be a blur, if each type of pitch spins in a unique direction from other pitches in the arsenal, the batter can pick up on which way the seams are moving. This skill of reading spin varies by hitter, but generally is a decision that needs to be made by a certain point in the ball’s flight. If a pitcher is able to have his fastball and his curveball look like they are spinning in the same direction, the batter cannot make this read until it is too late.

How does this relate to his curveball?

Well, it turns out that Matz’s two-seam fastball, which as mentioned earlier spins on a roughly 10 o’clock spin axis (just picture the direction the hour hand points on a clock when it reads 10:00; that hour hand is the axis around which the baseball spins) is actually precisely calculated by Brooks Baseball as an average of 122°. It turns out that Matz, on average, spun his curveball last year with a 306° direction, which equates to a difference of 184° between the two pitch types.

This is what is referred to as pitches that mirror each other’s spin, where 180° differential between two pitch types is considered the ideal mirror. Matz’s fastball and curveball, according to this data, should read out of his hand like the same pitch, until of course, the curveball breaks its plane of movement. 

Perhaps the real Steven Matz is a fastball-curveball wizard after all?

Not so fast. 

Matz’s curveball showed stark splits against batters hitting from different sides of the plate. While extremely effective breaking down and in on right-handed batters, the pitch was completely ineffective against batters from the left side. Lefties slugged a garish .733 off of the pitch, hit a Ted-Williams-esque .400 against it, and whiffed on it only 9.8% of the time.

So naturally, Matz stopped throwing it to lefties right? 

Not really. Matz actually threw more curves to left-handed hitters (17% of the time) than his slider (13.8%) or changeup (10.6%), despite the pitch underperforming those other off-speed offerings by a large margin. 

Matz actually threw his curve to right-handed hitters less often (14.3% of the time), despite getting far-superior outcomes compared to the damage lefties inflicted (only .365 slugging, a .188 batting average, and 13.3% whiff rate, second only to his changeup). So perhaps we’ve discovered an area of pitch selection that could use some re-tinkering.

Let’s try to put all the pieces to the Matz puzzle together, now that we’ve found some interesting but maybe imperfect fits.

The running, deceptive fastball doesn’t miss bats or generate ground balls at above average rates. More of a traditional two-seamer than a sinker, Matz is particularly prone to the home run ball against righties with it when he gets it up, as it lacks vertical movement, and hitters do not have too much trouble getting on top of it. The best outcomes for this type of pitch would seem to be precise work on the lower quadrants of the strike zone. Matz does boast slightly above average ability to pound the shadow zones, or edges of the strike zone, but this does not leave much margin for error. A little too often, loud fly ball contact is made against Matz’s two-seamers and changeups that are left up. 

The two most effective weapons are his changeup, which I theorize he under-employed against lefties last year, as they only hit .235 against it, and his curveball, which he under-employed against righties. The former generates whiffs from above average movement, the latter from an ideal angle of spin compared to the fastball. Could it be that the pieces of Matz, the pitcher, are actually there, and if they can fit together a little better, the realization of the mid-rotation stalwart that many envisioned could finally come to fruition?

Will the real Steven Matz please stand up?

* * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Doug.

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If Zack Wheeler walks in free agency this winter, the Mets will have a tall task in replacing his production in the starting rotation.

Wheeler, 29, has put up nearly 9 fWAR in the last two seasons for the Mets. If they don’t re-sign him, it’s unlikely anyone in house can give them similar production. There are players on the open market that could, but it seems a foregone conclusion that the Mets won’t dole out the money to those upper echelon pitchers.

However, a low-risk, high reward guy that they should consider is southpaw Alex Wood.

Wood, 28, appeared in just seven games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2019 as he battled a back injury that began in Spring Training and resurfaced in the summer. Thus, his overall results were poor. He recorded a 5.80 ERA, 6.38 FIP surrendered 11 home runs, had a 9.7 barrel rate, a 12.0 opposing launch angle, and a 3.81 wOBA.

It was a year to forget for the longtime Los Angeles Dodger, who will now try and click with a new team and get his career back on track.

While Wood is no sure thing, his price tag is unlikely to be high, he can likely be had on a short-term deal and with his track record, could soften the blow if Wheeler leaves and he bounces back.

In 2019, there were a lot of negatives in Wood’s game, but some of his numbers were in line with what he has done throughout his career.

His hard hit rate (33.6 percent), K% (19.6), BB% (5.9) and exit velocity (87.8) were all like the Alex Wood of old. In a limited sample size, Wood also had a low ground ball rate (38.2%), and 73 percent strand rate. However, his HR/FB (home run to fly ball ratio) of 29.7% is a bit concerning, although that could be chalked up to him battling injury in addition to the juiced baseballs.

Even if he does induce more fly balls than he used to going forward, Citi Field could be a solid ballpark for him to pitch in with its somewhat cavernous dimensions.

Here is what Brooks Baseball had to say about Wood.

His sinker generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has less armside run than typical. His change dives down out of the zone and is slightly firmer than usual. His slider has exceptional depth, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sliders and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders.

His fourseam fastball (take this with a grain of salt because he’s only thrown 2 of them in 2019) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has some natural sinking action, has essentially average velo and has slightly less natural movement than typical.

Overall, Wood could be a good bounce back candidate in 2019. He has a career 3.40 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, and in his last two years with the Dodgers, put up over 5 fWAR.

General manager Brodie Van Wagenen said the Mets would have to be creative this winter, and that fits this criteria.

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A report by Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports, says that the Mets front office was split on whether they should bring back reliever Jeurys Familia in the offseason, and a source confirmed that there was no universal support for the former Mets closer.

However, needing to bolster a bullpen that floundered in 2018 and ranked in the bottom five in Batting Average Against, FIP and ERA, newly tapped general manager Brodie Van Wagenen struck early and signed Familia to a three-year, $30 million dollar deal last December.

So far, Familia has been a unmitigated disaster, having already blown four saves while posting career-worst marks  with a 7.50 ERA, 5.73 FIP and a 1.833 WHIP over 32 appearances, most of them in low-leverage situations.

I took a look at some of the deeper pitching metrics which really point out some troubling trends for the former All Star closer. I compared Familia’s metrics from his most dominant seasons from 2014 to 2016 to this year’s version.

What jumps out at you immediately is the groundball rate on his signature pitch, that one-time nasty sinker.

When Familia was one of the game’s most dominant relievers, he boasted an impressive 13.55 groundball rate, but now that’s down to 8.79 – a decrease of almost five percentage points.

Also taking a big hit was Familia’s whiff/swing rate which dropped from 24.57 percent to 18.60 percent.

Sit down, this next one might make you a little squeamish. His BAA (batting average against) and his SLG (slugging percentage against) has skyrocketed from .221 and .314, to a BAA of .340 and a SLG of .540. Yikes.

And remember that splitter he added to his arsenal in 2016? That once lethal offering is getting teed off on to the tune of a .364 BAA and .636 SLG.

The first thing you want to know when you look at these results is, what’s wrong with Familia and has he lost his velocity or execution?

But when reporters asked manager Mickey Callaway about it last week, he responded, “The stuff is still there.”

A quick look at his pitch metrics – courtesy of Brooks Baseball – shows just a little decline in velocity across the board, he’s only lost a couple of MPH on his fastballs.

However, the vertical movement (pfx VMov) on his sinker is way down from 5.5 inches to 2.96 inches and you never want to see that for a sinker ball pitcher like Jeurys. It’s that wide vertical movement that made Familia’s two-seamer so deceptive and a nasty swing-and-a-miss pitch.

In other words, sorry Mickey, his stuff is NOT still there.

So now what?

Unfortunately, with two more years and $20 million dollars left on his contract, the decision by Van Wagenen to bring back  Familia could still haunt the team even if they look past this season and to future seasons.

Is there a chance that Familia could return to his once dominant form?

Probably not because this decline began three seasons ago, which really makes you wonder how he landed a three-year deal in the first  place.

At this point if the Mets could get him to at least become a serviceable arm in their beleaguered bullpen, they’ll take it.

But make no mistake, Brodie Van Wagenen has some explaining to do on Friday, when he’s expected to face the media after weeks of dodging the big questions.

Brodie showed up to the Winter Meetings like a brash-talking gunslinger at the OK Corral.

But he was too quick on the draw and made a potentially disastrous deal for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. And then followed that up by signing Familia for three years when there were still a dozen top shelf relievers on the market.

Our agent-turned-GM needs to tread carefully at the trade deadline or he could wind up at Boot Hill in Tombstone. He’ll be entrusted to move some signature pieces for the Mets and try to fortify a minor league system he decimated when he dealt a pair of 2019 All Star Futures – Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn. Sigh…

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On the eve of Opening Day, the New York Mets made a number of important decisions regarding their starting pitchers.  The biggest among them was sending Zack Wheeler down to Triple-A, which had the ripple effect of Seth Lugo claiming the fifth starter spot in place of the injured Jason Vargas.  Where the Mets go from here is anyone’s guess, which is probably MMO received questions on this very topic:

Patrick O asks . . .

How concerned should we be with Wheeler heading into the 2018 season? He will be 28 by June, has an extensive injury history, has lost his starting rotation spot, and will begin the year in the minors. What is the most Met fans can hope for at this point?

John replies . . .

When it comes to Wheeler, there are many things we discuss about him.  He walks too many guys.  Despite what appears to be great stuff, he has trouble putting guys away.  There is the debate about whether he’s better suited to the bullpen where he can max out his fastball, or if he’s ill-suited for that role because of the injuries he’s suffered.

Right now, I am personally at the point where we should be saying this is a guy who may not be cut out for New York.

Last year, he turned into Dikembe Mutombo blocking all Mets fans on Twitter.  He was noticeably angry and perturbed when the Mets signed Vargas.  More than that, he came to Spring Training presumably healthy and with a real chance to claim a spot in the rotation, and he responded with an 8.10 ERA and 2.400 WHIP in Spring Training.  When the pressure has been on him, Wheeler has wilted rather than thrived.

As Mets fans, we’ve grown accustomed to seeing how some guys thrive in New York and how some guys just can’t block out all the noise.  In his brief MLB career, Wheeler looks like the latter.

With that in mind, Wheeler going to Triple-A could be a blessing.  He will be out of the limelight a bit, and he will be able to just focus on getting better.  He’s going to be fortunate to work with Glenn Abbott, who is an underrated pitching coach.  Mostly, he’s going to be able to get up to full strength and hone his mechanics.

Sooner or later, he’s going to get an opportunity with the Mets again.  At some point this season, the Mets will need him to make at least one start.  When that opportunity arises, he’s going to be in the best position to succeed since donning a Mets uniform.  Only time will tell if he’s able to block out the noise and just pitch.

NYM_Gelbs asks . . .

If all five starters pitch well in the first three weeks, what happens when Vargas comes off the disabled list?

John replies . . .

When Vargas comes off the disabled list, the Mets are going to put him in the rotation.  While we can bicker back and forth whether this is the right move, the organization signed the 35-year-old, 12 year Major League veteran to be a starting pitcher.  The Mets are not going to start the first month of a two-year deal by reneging on a promise to Vargas he would be a starting pitcher.

However, as the season progresses, we could see Vargas’ spot in the rotation become all the more vulnerable.

After an All-Star start to his 2017 season, he fell off considerably.  In the second half, he was 6-8 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.595 WHIP.  Batters were teeing off on him to the tune of a .292/.366/.538 batting line.  This could be partially due to his fastball velocity dropping from 87.55 MPH to 86.04 MPH. (Brooks Baseball).

To begin the season, we saw Mickey Callaway have the mantra this team needs to carry it’s best pitchers.  The Mets actually followed through with that by putting Wheeler and Hansel Robles in Vegas.  That was just the first step.  Ensuing from there are 162 steps.  If during those steps, Vargas shows he’s not one of the best five starting pitchers, he should be dropped from the rotation and transitioned more into a 2006 Darren Oliver type of role.

And keep in mind, the Mets hands may be forced sooner or later.  As noted above, Wheeler is in a good spot to re-establish himself.  Robert Gsellman may show the Mets he has returned to being the pitcher he was in September 2016.  Chris Flexen could remind the Mets why they were so willing to have him go straight from Double-A to the majors.

Overall, there is real Major League ready starting pitching talent in this organization.  While Vargas may initially join the rotation after his stint on the disabled list, he will have to continuously re-prove himself with each and every start in order to keep that spot in the rotation.

Tim Ryder asks . . .

What are the chances we see The Big Tebow-ski in Flushing this year?

John replies . . .

The one thing Sandy Alderson doesn’t get enough credit for is acknowledging the Mets signing of Tim Tebow was a bit of a sideshow. In part, baseball is an entertainment business, and both football and baseball fans have been entertained by watching Tebow play baseball.

We have seen him draw record crowds to both Columbia and St. Lucie.  This has left the fans and minor league affiliates very happy.  We’re about to see if he will do the same for Double-A Binghamton where he will begin the season.

The cynic in me believes Tebow was assigned to Binghamton this season is because the team wants him to be ready to play in Triple-A next year. While the Mets have officially assumed ownership of the Triple-A Syracuse franchise, it will not become the Mets Triple-A affiliate until 2019.  Personally, I believe the organization wants Tebow to be in that Opening Day lineup to ensure a smooth transition and a happy, new fan base.

That doesn’t rule out the possibility Tebow will make the majors either this year or the next.  As we recall, Sandy Alderson himself said he could envision it happening.

If we see Tebow this year, it means things went horribly wrong.  Matt Harvey and Steven Matz were once again both injured and bad.  Michael Conforto was rushed too soon to play again, and he suffered another more tragic injury.  Yoenis Cespedes took up golf again, and he tore every ligament in his legs.  I won’t belabor the point.

The point is if the Mets are fighting for a postseason spot, or the team is preparing for a postseason run, they are not going to bring in Tebow.  Tebow is a broken glass in case of an emergency situation where the Mets will look to boost attendance for a failed season.

With the Mets opening the season tomorrow, I am as optimistic about the team as I’ve been since last year.  Being a homer, I think this team is going to win the division and World Series.  As a result, I say no Tebow this year.

* * * * * * * *

Hopefully, you enjoyed this mailbag as much as I enjoyed answering your questions. Keep the questions and comments coming and make sure to send them to AskMMO@metsmerizedonline.com

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The New York Mets went into the ninth inning of their game against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday with a 3-2 lead and closer Jeurys Familia coming in.

Familia got the first out of the inning before walking Joe Panik to put the tying run on. He then got a ground ball from Eduardo Nunez to third baseman Wilmer Flores that should have been a game-ending double play. Flores booted the ball, then made a wild throw Neil Walker at second base that pulled him off the bag.

Following the misplay by Flores, Hunter Pence singled in a run and Buster Posey walked to load the bases for rookie infielder Christian Arroyo. The 21-year old Arroyo hit a 1-0, 95 MPH sinker down the left field line to empty the bases and give the Giants a 6-3 lead.

Familia ended up getting only one out while allowing four runs (three earned) on two hits, two walks and took his first loss of the season.

“He seems completely disinterested,” one scout who has watched him this season told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. “His body language stinks. His velocity is (down), it used to be better. It should still be good enough to get outs when located. His splitter seems to have less drop.”

There’s no doubt that yesterday’s loss was tough to take. There were a combination of questionable decisions that on their own were not to blame for the loss, but in totality led to the Mets defeat.

• Why didn’t Conforto pinch hit with the bases loaded?
• Why did Collins bring in Familia with a five run lead the day before?
• With the day off on Thursday, why was Reyes batting leadoff instead of Conforto?
• And if Conforto was resting a slightly sore hamstring why did he end up entering the game anyway?
• Does Collins know Conforto has a .900 OPS vs LHP and Cabrera is at .635?

Getting back to Familia, according to Brooks Baseball, Familia is averaging 98.28 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season compared to 97.63 MPH last season and 97.39 MPH on his sinker in 2017 compared to 96.70 in 2016.

Possible culprit could be that Familia was throwing his third straight day, and unnecessarily so, because Terry Collins used him on Tuesday to close out a 6-1 victory.

Before being used for the the third straight day, Familia had dominated in his last five appearances allowing only one base runner in five innings.

At the time of the move on Tuesday, it seemed like a bad idea for Collins to use Familia (and Reed and Blevins) with a fairly comfortable lead and it came back to bite the Mets on Wednesday.

However, let’s not forget that Flores booted a ball that could’ve got Familia and the Mets out of the inning with Matt Reynolds, who is a far superior defender, sitting on the bench in a one-run game.

Look, about what the scout said, I don’t know how anyone can say Familia looks disinterested. That’s a load of garbage…

Yes, Familia does not appear as dominant as he was in 2015 or 2016 for that matter. But to say he’s disinterested is ridiculous. While the results may not show it I have no doubt that Familia gives a max effort every time he takes the mound. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back and maybe yesterday’s performance will serve as a big motivator.

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The Mets have signed right-handed relievers Ben Rowen and Cory Burns to minor league deals. Rowen gets an invite to big league camp while Burns does not.

Rowen, 28, has made 12 total appearances in the major leagues. In those appearances, he has pitched 11.2 innings with a 6.94 ERA, 2.057 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. Aside from a brief cup of coffee in the majors, Rowe split time between the Blue Jays and Brewers minor league affiliates.

He made 45 appearances in the minor leagues going 0-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9 in 58.0 innings. According to Brooks Baseball, the submarining Rowen is a sinker/slider pitcher that throws in the low 80’s.

Rowen has allowed only nine home runs in 415.1 innings and gets a ton of groundballs with his sinker. For his minor league career, Rowen has a 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and allowed just 309 hits in 384.2 innings.

FanGraphs ranked the top 25 minor league free agent pitchers and Rowen was at #16.

Burns, 29, has made 27 total appearances in the major leagues, but he has not made an appearance in the majors since 2013. In total, he is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.875 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9 in 29.1 innings.

Last year, Burns pitched in the Atlantic League going 0-3 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9 over 55 appearances. According to Brooks Baseball, Burns mostly relies upon his 90 MPH fastball and a changeup to try to get batters out.

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The general consensus as to why Hall of Famer Walter Johnson was so dominant was the saying, “You can’t hit what you can’t see.”  In analyzing some new data by MLB’s StatCast, that saying can now be applied to the young New York Mets’ pitching staff.

As Andrew Simon of MLB.com notes, the Mets threw more pitches of 95 MPH or faster than any other team in the major leagues. Nearly a thousand more. The main reason for this was the trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.

Harvey’s two-seamer averaged 95.4, and his four seamer averaged 95.3. deGrom’s two seamer averaged 95.6, and his four seamer averaged 96.0. As all Mets fans know, Syndergaard led the pack… His two seamer averaged 98.3, and his four seamer averaged 98.4. Amongst all starting pitchers Syndergaard threw the fastest.

This trio of hard throwing righties kept the Mets afloat in 2015 while the offense sputtered before the trade deadline in August. When the team finally assembled a major league capable offense, these pitchers led the Mets to the World Series. In 2016, it’s only going to get better.

Last year, the Mets had innings limits, skipped starts, and at times, six man rotations. Syndergaard wasn’t called up until May. In 2016, the Mets have said innings limits and the like will not be an issue. As such, all three of the Mets aces should be expected to make 32 starts and throw over 200 innings. This means more 95+ MPH fastballs. Again, batters will have trouble hitting the pitches they can’t see.

If that wasn’t enough, it gets even better. Steven Matz should start the year in the rotation. According to Brooks Baseball, Matz’s fastball averaged 94.57 MPH. Prior to Matz’s lat injury, his fastball averaged 94.90 MPH. With a full season of a healthy Matz, the Mets will further increase the amount of fastballs thrown over 95 MPH.

In addition to a full season of Matz, the Mets can expect a half a season of Zack Wheeler. In Wheeler’s career, his four seamer averaged 95.87 MPH, and his sinker averaged 95.50 MPH. All told, upon Wheeler’s return, the Mets will feature a starting rotation that has five pitchers bringing the heat at over 95 MPH. That is just incredible.

However, why does it matter?  Well, as FiveThirtyEight showed last year, it is just harder to hit a fastball that’s thrown 95 MPH and above. In total, batters swung and missed at pitches thrown this fast 22.8% of the time. That’s about 5-10% more frequent than pitches thrown slower.

More importantly, as we saw in last year’s NLCS, the Cubs are more likely to swing and miss at these pitches than any other team in baseball. Heading into the 2016 season, it appears that yet again it will be the Cubs standing in the Mets way. The pitching staff the Mets have constructed is not only effective against the Cubs, but also every single team in baseball.

The Mets 2016 pitching staff is the single best argument why any team in baseball will go to and win the World Series. The Mets young starters brought the heat last year. Next year will be more of the same. Good luck to the National League this year because you can’t hit what you can’t see.

(Chart: MLB, Photos: USATSI )

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It felt so good to hand it to the Yankees on their home turf during the first two games of the Subway Series, and I’m hoping that the Mets bats continue to pummel the baseball when the action shifts to Citi Field tonight.

From all the talk on the SNY post-game show and waking up to a dozen or so different articles about last night’s win, the big concern is Zack Wheeler who has one win to show for his last seven starts.

Coming off a stellar outing against the Miami Marlins in his previous start in which he tossed six scoreless innings despite walking five batters, there was an expectation that Wheeler had turned a corner and even the baseball odds reflected that last night at sportsinteraction.com.

However, Tuesday night’s effort left a lot to be desired for the 23-year old Wheeler.

Win Probability Chart courtesy of FanGraphs. Detailed pitching data courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

After straining through four innings, Wheeler headed into the fifth with his pitch count already at 99 and facing the middle of the Yankees order. But a walk and two singles into the frame, Terry Collins had had enough and pulled the young righty who tossed a career-high 118 pitches.

“When we got the lead in the first inning tonight, it was 4-0, I thought,” Terry Collins said.

“This is the perfect game for this guy to really take control and say, this is going to be mine tonight. This is where the Zack Wheelers of the world step up and say, I’m as good as advertised.”

“He just didn’t have any consistent release point. No feel for where the ball was going. He struggled. But he did as good as he could do, got us as far as he could.”

Wheeler didn’t have a clean inning all night and after allowing five runs on seven hits and six walks his ERA rose to 4.53.

“It was just one of those nights I didn’t have it — that simple,” a dejected Wheeler said after the game.

“It’s an untold rule in baseball: Your team scores for you and you’re supposed to go out there and put up zeroes.”

Mama said there’d be days like this…

Wheeler is closing in on a full season worth of starts in the majors, and through 25 of them so far he has a 3.76 ERA, 1.434 WHIP, 4.4 walk rate, and 7.8 strikeout rate.

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Cole Hamels can’t beat the Mets. The left-hander, who liked to call the Mets chokers, fell to 7-14 against the Amazins, with another loss on Tuesday. On a rainy night, that suffered through an hour-and-a-half rain delay, the Mets added six more earned runs to Hamels’ ballooning 4.65 ERA against them. Meanwhile, Jon Niese was fantastic. He pitched through periods of heavy rain, always in control, spreading out four hits over seven innings, striking out five and walking only one.

It was a big night for Daniel Murphy who collected three hits in his first three at-bats. His two-out hit in the third inning opened the scoring to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. In the fourth inning, Hamels lost sight of the strike zone. He walked four batters, including the pitcher, resulting in two more runs. After a Marlon Byrd home run cut the lead to 3-1, the Mets put the game away in the fifth inning. Ruben Tejada with the big blow: A bases loaded hit with two outs to give the Mets a commanding 6-1 lead.

With the win, the Mets improved their record to 15-11, good for third best in the National League (pending the end of the Giants game). The point is that the Mets find themselves at the end of April and playing competitive baseball. A small accomplishment on the long path back to relevance.

Key Play

Ruben Tejada’s two-out hit with the bases loaded broke the game open.

Starter Focus

Jon Niese

The Mets continue to get stellar starting pitching. Niese didn’t let the rain affect him at all, as he pounded the strike zone with his fastball, getting the two-seam over 61% of the time and the four-seam 70% for strikes. He allowed only four hits, striking out five and walking only one.

Cole Hamels

Hamels got kicked around by the Mets yet again. He had trouble finding the strike zone, walking five. He allowed eight hits and six earned runs.

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Once again, the Mets got stellar starting pitching, and once again, the bullpen was solid with the exception of Jose Valverde, but unfortunately, as has happened far too often this early season, once again, the Mets bats fell silent. The Cardinals got a brilliant pitching performance by Adam Wainwright, who was forced to leave the game after seven innings due to an apparent knee injury, and beat the Mets 3-0.

With the loss, the Mets fall back to .500 at 10-10. They wasted a strong outing by Dillon Gee who pitched six innings of two run baseball. Curtis Granderson seems incapable of breaking out of his current slump, going 0-3, and extending his hitless streak to 22 straight at-bats. David Wright had a rare 0-4 night, breaking his 12-game hitting streak. The Mets and Cards will go back at it tomorrow night with Jon Niese facing Michael Wacha.

Key Play

It was a little too reminiscent of 2006. In a strange coincidence of characters and theatrics, Adam Wainwright had a curveball hit for what looked like a game-tying home run untll Matt Holiday stole it from the top of the wall. Of course, it was nowhere close to as spectacular as Endy Chavez play.

Starter Focus

Dillon Gee

It took 95 pitches for Gee to reach six innings of work. He allowed only two runs on six hits, struck out four, and walked two. He got lots of swings on his breaking pitches, but only one swing-and-miss on the curveball. The key was 17 of 25 batters he threw first pitch strikes.

Adam Wainwright

Wainwright was sharp through seven innings before landing awkwardly while running towards first base, forcing him out of the game. He only needed 79 pitches to retire the Mets with ease, allowing only four baserunners.

Win Probability Chart courtesy of FanGraphs. Detailed pitching data courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

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