We heard on Wednesday that the Mets had interest in infielder Pablo Sandoval before he signed with the Giants. That got me to wondering what was left on the market in terms of infield depth.

Without assuming  Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, the Mets bench right now would likely be catcher Tomas Nido, outfielder Jake Marisnick, IF/OF Dominic Smith, infielder Luis Guillorme, and banged up veteran Jed Lowrie.

The bizarre health situation of Lowrie could be exactly why the Mets looked at Sandoval and might want to sign someone else. Lowrie was finally activated in September after dealing with knee, calf, hamstring, and hip issues since the start of Spring Training. Even then, the Mets never played Lowrie in the field and only had him take eight plate appearances.

Just eight days ago, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said they were pleased with Lowrie’s progress physically and optimistic that Jed would participate in a “meaningful way” this spring. Meaning, Lowrie wasn’t 100% when the Mets activated him last season. Who knows what to expect from Lowrie in 2020, his final season of a two-year deal.

Another spot on the bench can be created by optioning Guillorme to the minors. The talented glove-man does have options remaining and has hit .227.303/.297 in 144 big league plate appearances. Though, he did hit .300/.391/.475 in the second half last season.

Bench depth could be key for a team that has no idea what Lowrie is going to give you and your starting second baseman Robinson Cano is 37 years old coming off from a down season.

Let’s take a look at a few veteran infielders still available on the free agent market.

Brock Holt  – SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, RF, CF

The left-handed hitter has posted 109 wRC+ and 103 wRC+ the past two seasons while playing six different positions. Overall, he had three outs above average defensively last year, with second base (4 OAA) being his best spot.

Jason Kipnis – 2B, CF

He was close to being a Mets a few years ago, but his offense has been on a downward spiral. The left-handed hitter has slashed .236/.305/.403 over the last three seasons and hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100 since 2016. The former All-Star has also struggled defensively in that time span with -14 DRS at second and -4 DRS in center.

Wilmer Flores – 2B, 1B, 3B

Former Met posted a career-high 120 wRC+, though injuries limited him to only 285 plate appearances. His .361 OBP was a career-high and he struck out only 10.9% of the time. He hit .337/.367/.615 against left-handed pitching in 2019 for Arizona.

Logan Forsythe – 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF

The former first rounder hasn’t hit much such leaving Tampa in 2016 when he posted a .778 OPS. In 2019 for Texas, he hit .227/.325/.353 in 367 plate appearances. DRS and UZR has him as roughly scratch defender still at second, short, and third base.

Ben Zobrist – P, SS, 2B, LF, RF, 1B

Oh yes, the former All-Star that is 38 years old and coming off a -0.1 WAR season, this has the Mets written all over. The former Mets target, hit .260/.358/.313 in only 176 plate appearances for the Cubs in 2019. Still showed his versatility by playing four positions and even threw a scoreless inning. The switch hitter did post an .817 OPS in 2018.

Brad Miller – SS, RF, 3B, 1B, RF

The former big-time Mariners prospect finished the 2019 season strong with the Phillies, hitting 12 home runs in only 118 at-bats. His sprint speed was still above average and he had a .368 wOBA last year. The left-handed hitters 1.4 WAR was his highest since 2016 with the Rays.

Brian Dozier – 2B

Clearly, Dozier doesn’t have the versatility of the other players on the list, but the Mets showed interest in him last year for what was likely a utility role before signing Lowrie. He hit .238/.340/.430 with 20 doubles and 20 homers last season, though his offense was below league average for the second straight year at 99 wRC+.

Tim Beckham – SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, LF

The former first round pick hit .237/.293/.461 with 21 doubles, 15 homers, and a whopping 102 strikeouts in 304 at-bats last year for the Mariners. Outs above average has him as the one of the worst defenders in baseball for 2018 and 2019, with -11 each season. That includes -7 OAA at shortstop each season.

Conclusion

Holt would be my target here, though he absolutely deserves and will get a major league deal. Miller would be another interesting option as a guy that hit well with the Phillies and was actually decent defensively in several spots.

My guess is the Mets end up signing another veteran to a minor league deal – like they did with Eduardo Nunez recently.

The post Best Infield Depth Options Left on Free Agent Market appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Good morning, Mets fans! Welcome back to another rumor roundup! If you have come in search of news about top-tier free agents receiving interest – but not signing – you’ve found the right place.

Padres “Checking in” on Prized Free Agents

Jon Heyman from Fancred Sports has reported that the San Diego Padres have touched base with a quartet of high profile free agents featuring Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Mike Moustakas, and Marwin González. Per Heyman, it remains unclear whether or not the Padres’ engagement renders them the oft-alluded to “mystery team” in the bidding for Machado and Harper, seeing as no details have come about regarding potential offers. Nonetheless, Heyman contends that “they could move up the timetable with one big buy” as they prepare to push the chips in for a 2020 playoff run.

Neither Machado nor Harper has actually progressed closer to signing with a club since we last left off with the Chicago White Sox’ dubious seven-year, $175MM offer for Machado. Both superstars have drawn interest from the White Sox as well as the Philadelphia Phillies and (in Harper’s case) Washington Nationals. While the New York Yankees have been affiliated with Machado throughout the offseason, they don’t expect to pursue him further with the addition of DJ LeMahieu. His father, Manuel, recently told Héctor Gómez of Z101 Deportes that “the team you will probably less think about is the one that’s gonna sign [him].” A team in San Diego that has been in an intent rebuild across the last three years and has not made the playoffs since 2006 checks out as a perfect underdog in the Machado sweepstakes.

Regarding Moustakas, Heyman had previously reported that the Philadelphia Phillies had been considering pursuing the two-time All-Star as a potential fallback if their bid for Machado were to fall short. Despite a career-high 38 homers and 85 RBI in 2017, the 30-year old Moustakas trudged his way back to the Kansas City Royals on an absurdly cheap $5.5MM contract, turning in a .251/.315/.459 line this past year. He is one of the few remaining third basemen on the free agent market to grade out positively in terms of both oWAR and dWAR.

MLB.com‘s Richard Justice had the most recent insight on the utilityman González, who has been linked to the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, and Atlanta Braves. Following DJ LeMahieu’s departure from the free agent market two weeks ago, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had speculated that González (who is still just 29 years of age despite six years of big-league experience) could hold out for a four-year deal in the range of the $56MM Ben Zobrist and the Chicago Cubs agreed to following the 2015 season. It’s worth noting that while Zobrist compiled a 12.1 bWAR from 2013-2015 prior to signing with Chicago, González checks in a few steps behind at a cumulative 8.1 since 2016.

Giants Sign Pomeranz

Per Larry Krueger of KNBR-AM, the San Francisco Giants and left-handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz have agreed to a one-year deal – just a week removed from their re-signing of fellow lefty Derek Holland. ESPN‘s Jeff Passan has the big-league deal at an estimated $1.5MM, with Ken Rosenthal adding that the contract offers another $3.5MM in incentives.

Pomeranz, 30, was an All-Star for the San Diego Padres just two years ago, and following a deadline trade that carried him through a full season with the Boston Red Sox in 2017, he dazzled with a 17-6 record, 3.32 ERA, and 2.52 K/BB ratio in 32 starts. 2018 made for a much more frustrating story, however, as Pomeranz stumbled over a 6.08 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and 1.77 WHIP held up largely by a career-high average of 5.4 BB/9 in 11 starts and 15 relief appearances. Righties torched him to a .301/.401/.546 line, and his 2.00 WHIP in the first inning made for the third-worst in the American League.

Holland first came to the Giants on the heels of a similarly dreadful end to his career with the Texas Rangers, so there may be reason to believe the organization can steer Pomeranz in the right direction as well. That said, the current rotation doesn’t figure to include Pomeranz, and considering he lost both two mph in fastball velocity and practically all feel for his curveball, the odds are much slimmer – hence the short financial leash.

Reliever Market Set to Stir

In a final piece of news, there’s a chance that the acquisition of Pomeranz – especially following deals between the Los Angeles Angels and Cody Allen and New York Yankees and Adam Ottavino – is a sign of things to come regarding the current relief pitcher market. Jeff Passan writes that teams are expected to “comb the one-year market,” with such names as Ryan Madson and Brad Brach drawing particularly strong interest at this time.

Madson, 38, made 58 appearances last year between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers (his fourth-straight season of 55 or more appearances), struggling with a 5.47 ERA and 1.405 WHIP, though a 3.97 xFIP and 24.2% soft-contact rate suggest bad luck may have been a culprit. With a career-high 95.9 mph in average fastball velocity this past year, it’s safe to say Madson has something left in the tank.

Brach, 32, took a step back in 2018, as his 2.14 K/BB ratio made for his worst since 2013. That said, he definitely picked up the pieces after being traded from the Baltimore Orioles to the Atlanta Braves at the July deadline. He lowered his walk and homer-rates from 4.4 and 0.9 to more tolerable figures at 3.4 and 0.4, respectively, while posting a 1.52 ERA. An All-Star setup man to Zach Britton as recently as 2016, Brach struggled largely due to a busted changeup at 4.6 runs below average. Over the prior three years, Brach had compiled 10 runs above average with the same pitch – good for 12th in the majors in that span.

Though a closer of Craig Kimbrel‘s stature, for example, may continue to wait out a more lucrative offer, it can be expected that some of the higher-quality setup men and/or specialists like Bud Norris, Adam Warren, Shawn Kelley, and Justin Wilson will receive similar interest in the coming weeks, assuming teams follow what their sources have indicated.

The post Hot Stove Rumor Roundup: Padres on the Prowl appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Daniel Zamora got his first taste of Major League action in 2018 and made the most of it. The southpaw, whom the New York Mets acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates for Josh Smoker on Jan. 31, 2018, spent most of 2018 in Double-A Binghamton before getting the call to The Show.

While with the Rumble Ponies, Zamora put up a solid 3.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, while striking out 69 batters in 40 games and 51 2/3 innings.

The injury bug hit the Mets hard yet again in 2018. After Bobby Wahl headed to the disabled list with a right hamstring strain, Zamora got the call and became the franchise-record-tying 54th player that the Mets used in 2018.

Zamora was notified of his promotion on Aug. 17 and quickly made his MLB debut later that night against the Philadelphia Phillies. He started things off strong as he fired 1 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out two.

He continued keeping opponents off the board in his next four appearances as well. In them he pitched two scoreless innings accompanied by two hits, no walks and two strikeouts.

The 25-year-old’s toughest stretch of his brief stint came in three games from Aug. 27 to Aug. 31. In those games he gave up two runs in 1 1/3 innings. That also included an appearance on Aug. 28 against the Chicago Cubs in which he replaced Paul Sewald in the bottom of 11th and gave up a walk-off RBI single to Ben Zobrist.

The one positive taken out from that three-game stretch was that Zamora was still able to remain the strikeout pitcher that he is as he fanned all four batters he retired in those appearances.

In September, Zamora rebounded quite nicely. He appeared in eight games and four innings for the Mets, and limited opponents to one hit, one walk and no runs while striking out eight of the 12 batters he retired.

The Mets often used Zamora as a lefty specialist which was valuable as Jerry Blevins took a massive step back in 2018. Blevins became unreliable in that role as he actually had more success against right-handed batters in 88 at-bats (.193/.330/.352/.682) than against left-handed batters in 72 at-bats (.264/.341/.444/.786).

2019 Outlook

Zamora emerged in 2018 as a solid reliever who has a good chance of playing a part in the Mets’ 2019 plans.

While nine innings is not enough to simply hand him a job in the bullpen on Opening Day, the fact that he is a lefty strongly helps his case.

The Mets had no real lefty options for 2019 before signing Hector Santiago and Luis Avilan to minor league deals recently. Brodie Van Wagenen has indicated that Avilan has a good chance of getting a spot on the Opening Day roster. However, even if Avilan does indeed make the team, it should be alongside Zamora rather than in place of him.

Zamora would likely only see his role shrunk if the Mets add another southpaw or two on major league contracts. However, even if that does happen, Zamora being an up-and-coming young player still helps his chances over Avilan. Barring a very weak spring training, it can be expected that he makes the Opening Day roster regardless of any moves the Mets make from now until March 28.

The post 2018 Mets Report Card: Daniel Zamora, LHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

One of the most underrated moves of the offseason for Brodie Van Wagenen and the New York Mets was arguably the one they didn’t make, by pulling second baseman Jeff McNeil out of the trade package with the Seattle Mariners for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano.

While there was not much to cheer about in a forgettable 2018 season for the Mets, the 26-year old infielder’s strong rookie campaign was one of the lone bright spots.

McNeil began the 2018 season tearing the cover off the ball in the minors. In 88 games between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Las Vegas, he slashed .342/.411/.617 and showed an advanced approach at the plate. McNeil made his big league debut on July 24, and his success carried over to the big leagues.

Over 248 big league plate appearances in his rookie season, McNeil posted a .329/.371/.481 stat line, while only striking out 24 times. And in 53 starts, he impressively recorded 20 multi hit games, 3-four hit games, and 5-three hits games.

In a season full of injuries and mainly negatives, McNeil’s “crazy contact skills” provided the Mets “anemic” offense with a much needed kick start. From the time of his debut to the end of the season, the team finished with a 37-28 record.

His presence particularly helped enhance struggling shortstop Amed Rosario‘s offensive numbers. With McNeil batting behind him in the two-hole, Rosario successfully slashed .301/.331/.431 over his final 30 games.

With his ability to put the ball in play at a high rate as well as his versatility, McNeil’s game has often drawn comparisons to that of Ben Zobrist and former Met Daniel Murphy.

After the addition of Cano as the new second baseman, the Mets have a few different options to try and fit McNeil’s bat into the 2019 starting lineup.

First, the Mets could simply name McNeil their starting third baseman over Todd Frazier. Frazier is coming off a rough 2018 season where he struggled not only at the plate, but also staying on the field. Although, barring a trade Mickey Callaway has indicated at the moment Frazier is the Opening Day starter at the hot corner.

If that is the case, the Mets will likely look to use McNeil in a super utility role. McNeil figures to see time at almost every infield position, and Callaway has even hinted at some appearances in the outfield. Throughout his minors and brief big league career, McNeil spent most of his time at second and third.

Regardless of how the Mets plan on using McNeil, they certainly need to find a way to fit his bat in the lineup everyday in some way, shape, or form. With this win-now approach the Mets are taking into next season, the Mets need to find a way to utilize the scrappy and hard-nosed approach McNeil brings to the table.

The post Mets Have to Find a Way to Utilize Jeff McNeil appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

In December 2015, Ben Zobrist spurned the Mets for the Chicago Cubs, so New York had to shift focus to plan B.

Plan B turned out to be better than anything they could have ever asked for. Asdrubal Cabrera was coming off a decent year for the Rays, but it was no secret to any team in on him in the winter that his time at shortstop was limited.

Cabrera had a history of knee issues and was a defensive liability. But on Dec. 15, then-general manager Sandy Alderson inked him to a two-year, $18.5 million dollar deal with a team option for a third season.

The year after making the World Series, the Mets found themselves a new starting shortstop.

Entering 2015, Cabrera was a decent player.

He averaged 11 home runs a season, slashed .267/.329/.412 on his career, and was seen as an offensive first player. Fan reception to the Cabrera deal wasn’t great, and he was seen unfairly partly due to the hole left in our hearts by a future World Champion. Cabrera came out of the gates hot, hitting .300 in his first month with the Mets.

He struggled through May and June, and suffered a bad knee injury on July 31. The Mets slipped to twp games under .500 and 5.5 games out of the second Wild Card by Aug. 19.

Then-manager Terry Collins went on to say that the Mets had  players in Las Vegas that could play if the “guys up here” didn’t wake up. Shortly there after, Cabrera returned from the DL, and was on another level.

Dyed hair and everything, Asdrubal turned on another gear and took off towards a playoff push. He hit .317 in September with a .389 OBP and six home runs. One of those home runs, however, will never be forgotten.

It was Sept. 22, and the Mets had a half game lead on their playoff position, as they were tied with the Giants for the first and second Wild Cards.

The Phillies were in town, and the Mets were stuck in a tough one.

After much back and forth, Yoenis Cespedes hit a go-ahead double in the seventh, only to be answered by a Maikel Franco three-run home run. Followed was a game-tying home run from Jose Reyes in the ninth, only for A.J. Ellis to suck all the life out of Citi Field and give the Phillies a two-run lead heading into the bottom of the 11th.

With two runners on, Cabrera came up just looking to keep the line moving. But on a 1-0 pitch, Edubray Ramos hung an off-speed pitch and Asdrubal took a hack. He knew where that ball was going from the second it hit his bat.

A swing that lives on in Mets’ history, Cabrera threw his lumber into the sky with a double handed motion. After four bat flips and two “It’s Outta Here!!”s from Gary Cohen, Cabrera walked it off.

A three-run bomb that landed over the head of right fielder Peter Bourjos and over the right field wall, Cabrera had the most dramatic hit of the year, and secured the Mets’ most important since the previous years playoffs.

Cespedes, waiting in the on-deck circle, threw his helmet to the side and was the first Met to home plate. He was soon followed by a mob of orange and blue, with a little blonde thrown in there. Michael Conforto threw his hands in the air as he headed for third base, and joined the huddle of men poised for an all-time great playoff run. Cabrera rounded third, threw his helmet towards the field of play, and trotted to home plate as if he was Isuro Tanaka in Major League 2.

Cabrera was a constant for the Mets in the following years that were filled with disappointment.

He showed time and time again what it meant to be a New York Met. He saw players come and go, the highs and the lows, the hope and the despair.

Cabrera vastly outperformed his contract, but his importance to the Mets carried more than that. He was always active in the community, and always had time for the fans.

He quickly became a fan favorite, and hardly ever complained about the situations the Mets threw him into — minus one time last season. But that’s water under the bridge now.

Cabrera put together an All-Star first half this season, and was one of the only watchable aspects of this Mets team. Cabrera’s importance and impact to the Mets will likely always fly under the radar because of the teams he played for and the outcomes of those seasons, but without him, the Mets likely don’t see a playoff berth in 2016. Cabrera’s legacy should live on in Mets second base history, and his devoting to the fans, the city, and the franchise should not be forgotten.

Asdrubal was a key piece in taking a game, and making it something larger than life, even if it was just for a month and a half in 2016. Cabrera became more than a ball player. He encompassed everything the Mets needed, and had fun with it too.

Cabrera and the 2016 Mets were so likable and easy to get behind, and showed us what baseball is really about: fun.

That group of 25 went out every night, some with dyed hair, some not, and took our hearts and minds away from everything else in our lives, even if just for three hours at the most. And maybe it was just me being a 13-year-old kid who loved a baseball team.

If that’s so, then Asdrubal Cabrera helped us all channel our inner kid and just love the game of baseball.

The post An Ode to Asdrubal Cabrera appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The analytic movement in Major League Baseball continues to gain further acceptance, as all thirty clubs employ statisticians and analysts to crunch the numbers in order to make better baseball decisions.

We’ve witnessed teams alter their methods with the increased amount of data available at their fingertips, which includes defensive alignments, bunting, platoons, and utilizing their best relievers in the highest leverage situations, just to name a few.

Services such as Statcast, Sports Info Solutions, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs offer various insights into sabermetrics, helping to further the conversation and bring awareness into understanding the game in a new light.

Over the last few years, fans of baseball literature have been given various perspectives on the shift in baseball analytics, from Brian Kenny’s book Ahead of the Curve to Keith Law’s Smart Baseball. Each of these titles offers its own insight and analytical approach to baseball-related data; however, a simple yet often afterthought when trying to understand the logic behind sabermetrics is the human element aspect.

Author Russell A. Carleton looks to bridge that gap.

Carleton, a veteran baseball writer whose work has appeared in Baseball Prospectus for over eight years, penned a new book called The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking. In it, Carleton brings his background in clinical psychology paired with his keen knowledge of analytics to pose questions about various in-game scenarios along with a long-term outlook.

Why didn’t David Ortiz bunt down the third baseline with a major pull shift in the infield? Why don’t third-base coaches send more runners home on a sacrifice fly? How can we better evaluate the role managers play? What’s the expected value of a particular situation to make better in-game decisions? How do organizations go about ensuring their minor league players are given resources in case they need assistance in personal matters?

These are just a few of the questions Carleton poses in his book, along with detailed analysis and data to back up his claims and findings.

Carleton writes in an engaging and exuberant way, with many of the chapters filled with personal anecdotes from Carleton’s own life, which helps tie into his studies. This approach helps make Carleton’s arguments clearer for the uninitiated or fans that are looking to gain a better understanding of sabermetrics.

With the amount of information available to the masses, it’s important that we’re able to discern how to ask the right questions and make the best decisions for maximizing the most wins for a team. Carleton offers insightful analysis into making better baseball decisions but with the human element attached.

I had the privilege of speaking with Carleton in mid-March, where we discussed the development of his book, how he incorporated his clinical psychology background into his work and several of his chapters.

MMO: What made you write the book, and what was the process like for you?

Carleton: After the 2016 World Series, it was November, and I was depressed because my beloved Indians had lost the Series. November is National Novel Writing Month, and I said, ‘I’ll never write a novel, but I’ve always had the idea of writing a book.’ I even tried about ten years ago, and I found some of the old drafts, and they were awful. I decided that I’ve always had this dream, and if not now, then when?

I’ve been doing baseball writing for about ten years at this point, so I had a lot of stuff that I had been writing about and my rough drafts. The process was kind of tying a lot of that stuff together that had been kind of scattershot over the years.

MMO: One of the big stigmas you address right away in your book is about the ongoing acceptance, or lack thereof, by some of the sabermetrics. One of the common objections, and one that you expand upon, is the “you never played” statement. Can you talk a little about how you counter with those who are skeptical about advanced metrics, including this particular objection?

Carleton: My secret superpower is that I’m trained as a clinical psychologist. I have been in the therapy room, and I have talked to people, trying to help them out. Occasionally, you get people who say, “You haven’t lived my life; you don’t understand.” Well, I don’t in the sense that I’ve never done it myself, but we all have to do things where we’ve kind of learned to take somebody else’s perspective in life. So I had some training in that.

Somebody might say, “You’ve never played.” What they’re really saying is that they can’t even put it into words what they understand about baseball that you’re just not picking up on. I’ve gotten that before, and I’ll say, ‘Well, help me understand.’ You give them a couple of minutes to really formulate the words, and they bring up something, and they say, “Here’s what I’m trying to say.”

Usually, they have a pretty good point, and I’ve had those situations, and I think it calls for a little bit of humility around that.

It’s not that I have all of the answers or that someone else has all of the answers. It’s something in the therapy room you kind of learn to do, and when you do it, you’re a much better person for trying to help people out and piece out what’s really going on.

MMO: You come from a background in clinical psychology, as you mentioned, and one of the things I loved about your book was how you interspersed personal anecdotes and stories. Did you plan from the beginning to write the book that way?

Carleton: Self-disclosure in the therapy room is something that I always tried to integrate into my work. I don’t see patients anymore, but when I did, it is a way of being able to say, ‘Look, I may not have gone through something exactly like this, but I’ve been through something myself.’

I talk about that in the book when I was in high school and I was on a quiz show. There was a team that kind of bent the rules and found an advantage. Basically, we lost because they figured it out before we did. I talk about that, and part of it was just, well, I’m never going to write a memoir, so it’s a chance for me to do that.

I tried to pick stories from my life that demonstrated, okay, this is what I’m talking about and kind of serve as a way to get people ready for the baseball stuff that was going to happen. Plus, hopefully, it was kind of fun to read.

The idea of self-disclosure was that I’m a real person and not some monster out to destroy the game of baseball. I’m just a guy that’s been through my [own] life, and all I can say is these are my observations. Maybe it’s a lot easier to take when it’s just another person on the other side of the keyboard.

MMO: I think a big part of the appeal to your book is going to be how you intertwined both the analytics and the human element side of it. By doing so, the numbers don’t appear as “scary” to those who are either on the fence with sabermetrics or are wanting to get a better understanding of it.

Carleton: And this is part of why I wanted to write the book. The stereotype is you’re just interested in numbers; you’re not interested in the human element of it. Well, as a psychologist, that’s what I do. When I was pitching the book to my publisher, I said, ‘I don’t know if this is even a baseball book as much as it’s a book about people that just happen to be wearing baseball hats.’

This is a book where I think if you dig deeper into the numbers, you’ll find that baseball has a lot of places where very, very human things happen. Some of them are kind of silly human things, and some of them are places where yeah, we can play the game of baseball better.

I think that marriage of the human element and the numbers, especially within the game of baseball, has gotten a bad rap. It was one of the things I was consciously shooting for as I was writing it.

MMO: You write extensively about expected value and probabilistic thinking. Can you talk a bit about expected value and what fans should understand about that concept when it comes to making sound baseball decisions?

Carleton: One of the things about expected value is that we’re not trained to think about that in sports. If you think about the example that I use [in the book], if I know that there’s nobody on and two outs or the bases are loaded and nobody out, before I know what happens in those two innings, I know which one I would pick if I had a choice. I think it’s pretty obvious which one you’d pick. But sometimes the bases are loaded and nobody’s out, and you don’t score. Sometimes there’s nobody on and two outs, and you put together a four-run rally. It doesn’t make my initial preference for bases loaded and no one out false; it’s just that sometimes you just kind of get a bad outcome.

What you want to think about is what is the most likely thing to happen. What is the value of that? In baseball, value is denominated in runs. What is going to produce the most runs or wins or whatever it happens to be for me? The thing about expected value is that it describes a lot of the decisions people have to make in baseball. We have to make a decision before we know what the outcome will be. Whether that’s in an in-game decision of should I bunt here? Should I not? A general manager’s decision of should I trade for that starting pitcher and give up my top two prospects?

Some of those decisions that happen a lot in baseball, I think expected value is the key to really understanding how you should approach those, because you’re going to get burned on some of them. Some of them end up being wrong, but if you make the decisions that have a higher expected value time after time after time, you’re eventually going to end up ahead.

Even something as simple, and this one I can’t take credit for, but the sacrifice bunts that we’ve grown up and been taught about. Look at how many runs a team scores on average with a runner on first and nobody out versus the number of runs a team scores with a runner on second and one out. When you think about it, you can either swing away with that guy on first or bunt him to second and accept the out.

Well, it turns out that you actually score more runs with a runner on first and nobody out, so you might as well swing away. That was one of the first applications in expected value to baseball, and this was done thirty years ago by two guys named Pete Palmer and John Thorn. They found that, and ever since it’s been, why do we still see bunting if what you’re effectively doing is taking runs off the board for yourself in the long run?

MMO: In one of your chapters, you discuss the value that a guy like Ben Zobrist brings to a team the ability to play multiple positions. Can you talk a little about the value a guy like that brings to a team, and why versatility should be something that’s more readily looked for? For the Mets, a guy like Phil Evans comes to mind, who they are also teaching to catch. Should clubs be looking more towards this model of developing multi-positional players?

Carleton: Whether they like it or not, they’re starting to. You’re seeing more of those guys. I called Ben Zobrist the patron saint of those sorts of guys who just kind of zoom all over the field. It’s happening for a couple of reasons. One is that pitching staffs are getting bigger, so you need guys who are position players either on your bench or, if they’re starting, they can switch to another position. Then you have someone from the bench fill in, based on needing to cover eight different positions, possibly with three bench players. There’s that aspect of it.

The Zobrist effect is something that I look at, and I’m like, what is the effect of that versatility? It’s not something that Zobrist himself is doing, but if you think about it, he mostly played second base and right field. Now, whatever team, the Cubs, that employs him can go out and say, maybe we have a second baseman who hits right-handed who would be a good platoon guy, and we have a right fielder who is left-handed who has got good platoon splits. Now we can have a position platoon, and Zobrist can sort of bridge that gap. He can do that.

We don’t have a word for that sort of value in baseball. The way that his versatility unlocks their ability to make other decisions on their roster to make the team maybe a little bit better or maybe a lot better. That ability to have that versatility and how it impacts a team is one of those things when I look at baseball I’m looking for what’s something interesting to look for or write about. I look for places where we don’t have a word to describe what’s being said. I talk about that a little bit in the book, too. What are the missing words?

It’s frustrating when you don’t have a word for something. There’s this thing that I know is true or I know is out there, but I don’t know what to call it. I think some of that frustration bleeds through, and sometimes in sabermetrics you’re dealing with stuff that in baseball we haven’t really named yet because we haven’t really thought all the way through with it. Being in that sort of space, where you don’t have the word to say, can feel kind of strange. Some people kind of shut down at that point.

MMO: You dig into the role of closers and how managers should use their best relievers in the situations where the game is most important to winning the game. We’ve started to see managers utilize relievers earlier, such as with the Cubs, Indians, Yankees, and Astros in recent years.

You write about leverage in the book, and the numbers back up your ideas. Do you think we’ll start to see a more widespread approach where managers are using their best relievers in the highest leverage situations moving forward?

Carleton: I want to be kind of careful in how I say this. Yes, but not quite. In 2016, there was the Andrew Miller year, where it seemed like Miller was coming in the sixth inning of all of the games in the Indians’ playoff run. He was pitching high-leverage places and Terry Francona had no concerns about using him wherever he had to use him. I don’t think that is going to happen in the form that the Indians did in the postseason; that was a post-seasonal thing. And it’s because you’re going to burn the guy out if you do that over 162 games.

Teams are starting to get a little bit smarter in that we’re kind of trained to see the ninth inning as the thing that we should look at. What is the thing that tells us how winnable, losable, or basically how much in the balance this game hangs? When you look, it’s not how late the game is; it’s what the score is. We think about the ninth inning with a three-run lead, teams bring in their closer, usually their best reliever, to hold that down. Well, if you look at the math at that it is actually more important to see who is pitching in the sixth inning if your team has a one-run lead.

The two most important runs in baseball are the run that ties the game and the run that unties the game. If you’re up by a run, you’re in grave danger of giving up both. You want your best relievers in when the game is close. The save rule was kind of written in a way that has come to be, oh well, the ninth inning with less than three runs, the guy gets a save. It really isn’t describing the best way to win a ball game. It’s describing a late game that may feel a little more emotionally valiant, but it’s not the best way to win a game if you look at the numbers.

MMO: There’s been a debate for years now on how much value a manager has in terms of wins and losses each season for his club. You surmise that the behind-the-scenes work might be just as important, if not more, than the on-field tactics for the role of a manager. When fans assess the job a manager does, what should they be looking for, based on your research from the book?

Carleton: What we normally think about managers is in terms of the buttons they push. That’s who they pinch hit for when they call for the hit and run, when they call for a bunt, and how they arrange the lineup. We can look and see how much difference that makes. And you can go, well, okay, this is worth a couple of runs here and a couple of runs there. Over the course of a season, I think if you look at the perfect manager and you took all the types of strategic things that he can do and you say he did them all perfectly, he’d be worth about a win and a half, or something like that.

I found if you take a look over the course of a season when we see plate discipline, we see that it kind of deteriorates a little bit. It’s not something you pick up with the naked eye; it’s something that you need a big data set to look at. If you look at how plate discipline deteriorates over the course of a season, you see that some managers are actually better than others, and it’s a pretty consistent effect in either stopping that decline or even holding the line or making their players a little bit better as the season goes on. With some managers, their guys just seem to drop out.

I was able to isolate that, and a guy like Buck Showalter of the Orioles, who sometimes gets a bad rap from sabermetricians for his tactical stuff, is actually the best in baseball at preventing his players from kind of losing stuff to the grind of the season. He came out high-flying on my calculations.

It turns out if you look at the spread between the best and the worst, again, it’s probably worth a win and a half, and it’s pretty consistent. I would say that some of that off-field stuff where you’re keeping guys motivated, even though it’s August and it’s hot and you’ve been living out of a suitcase for four months, if you’re able to do that and keep the guys engaged and not kind of wandering off mentally, that’s most of what a manager does.

I think it’s something that we need to think about more and that sabermetricians have given a lot of short tiff to. When you look deep at the numbers, yeah, it’s in there.

MMO: One of the personal stories I loved was when you talked about the admissions worker you met with at Kenyon College (Carleton’s alma mater) named Mr. Jed. Can you talk a bit about your meeting with him, and who he ended up becoming?

Carleton: Mr. Jed was a really nice guy. I was a senior in high school, and I was living in Cleveland. My dad and I would go every weekend, and we would go out to a college and take a look around. I went to Kenyon, which eventually became my alma mater. It was on a Saturday, and my dad called ahead. They had an admissions worker, and it was Mr. Jed. He showed us around campus, and he showed us the bookstore, academic buildings, library, all of the things you do on a college tour.

We went back to the admissions office, and we had a little interview with me. During the interview, we started talking about baseball. In a moment of self-disclosure on his part, he said that he was really hoping that at some point he could work for a baseball team. I thought that’s really cool; I kind of have that same dream. I was just thinking this is the nicest guy named Jed that I had ever met.

About 10-12 years later I was reading a story, and it was that the Cubs had hired Jed Hoyer to be their new general manager. I was flipping through and reading it, and it mentioned Hoyer’s first job out of college was as an admissions worker at a school in the middle of nowhere Ohio. I kind of went, huh? Huh? Oh! I started doing the math and going, well, let’s see, he graduated there; yeah, that would’ve been about right and then I went to Google. And sure enough, it was Jed Hoyer.

I met Jed Hoyer when I was seventeen; he was twenty-three and he was an admissions worker, and we bonded over the fact that we both wanted to work for baseball teams.

Jed, if you’re out there, I’m happy you got your wish.

MMO: Did you ever get to meet Hoyer and talk to him about your initial encounter?

Carleton: You know, I haven’t talked to him directly. We have a couple of contacts in common, and a few of them have said that they knew the story and have told him that, and he sort of kind of remembers me [Laughs.] I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I hope it’s true.

Jed, if you’re out there, I’d love to sit down and talk about the good ‘ole days way back when, 20 years ago.

MMO: You write about player development, but more specifically, the human development aspect of it. You write that you reached out to several clubs in 2014 on how they approach human development issues. Can you talk about some of your findings?

Carleton: It was a totally different way of doing research. I specifically wanted to not go do a big data dive into ten million lines of data, [where] I’m going to punch through and code and try to find some numbers that explain everything. I decided to pull from my clinical psych background and instead call some of these people and talk to them and see what comes up. I had a couple of questions that I would ask everybody, and I would just let the conversation wander.

You’ve got these minor league players, and they are incredibly valuable because of the way the salary structure is set up that you don’t have to pay them a whole lot. If they’re any good, that’s a great source of value. Everybody knows that. You’re always looking for young talent, so how do you deal with him, not only as a baseball player, but as a human being? Realistically, once these guys take off their hats, they’re just kids that are nineteen, twenty, twenty-one, wondering, Why am I in Iowa?

Some of them are in a new country, some of them are on their own for the first time, some of them are probably homesick. Then you think about issues like, what if he doesn’t know how to do his laundry? What if he doesn’t know how to put together a good meal plan? What if he doesn’t know how to cook?

These types of things you have to do when you’re an adult, and things that all of us we’re learning around those times between 18-25, there’s professional literature around those times. It’s being recognized as a distinct period of time in one’s life called emerging adulthood. How do you help somebody through that time period?

I called a bunch of teams and I said, ‘Well, what do you guys do?’ They were all familiar with the problem, and they had different ways of doing it, some of it the same. The idea was that you really want to build connective tissue so that if someone has a problem, it can be identified and diagnosed. If the person’s reaching out for help he can be connected for that help if they need to stage some sort of intervention or something. You have a way of having a person that the player trusts be the one to reach out and say, “Hey, we’ve been noticing this about you; can we get you some help?”

They all have slightly different ways of doing it, and that’s okay. The point isn’t exactly how you structure it, and it’s not if you do it this way it’s worth 20 extra runs. It’s that you want it to build strong connective tissue, strong relationships between the players and the people who could help them.

I went to them and I said, ‘You know, you guys are sounding like a social service organization.’ If you think about community health and community health work – which is my job now – you want people who are outreach workers, you want people who are diagnosticians, you want people who can give good technical advice, but you have to build that relationship with the community in order to connect people to help.

We’re talking about twenty-something-year-old men; they’re not the kinds who are going to put up their hand and go, I need help, I need help. Our culture doesn’t validate that. In fact, our culture tells us the exact opposite.

That’s one of those things that I found was just an amazing line of inquiry, so I wanted to write that up and put that in the book for everybody to see.

MMO: Overall, what are you hoping readers take away from this book?

Carleton: I had this argument with my publisher that I didn’t want the subtitle to include, “And How to Think About Baseball”. I didn’t want that. I wanted it to be, here are my thoughts: some of them are brilliant; okay, maybe only one or two of them are brilliant, and some of them are going to be lame and some of them you may already think like that. I just want people to have a different way of looking at a baseball game. [It] might not be the same way you look at a baseball game; it might not be the same way you’ve always thought of a baseball game, but here’s just a new thing to try.

I’m a numbers guy; I look at things through the numbers. I think there is a lot of wisdom to be gathered from them, but I know not everyone’s there at that point where they’re fully comfortable with that. Okay, cool. I really just hope people are willing to have a different way of looking at this. Maybe one or two of those things you can take into your own self. As you’re watching the game, you can think of, now that we’re getting into this situation, I kind of wonder if this applies here. That’s really all I’m hoping for in this book. Hopefully it’s a fun read on the beach or wherever you happen to be.

That’s my goal: to give somebody a different way that you may not have had to ever think about the game.

MMO: Thanks so much for your time tonight, Mr. Carleton. Congratulations on the book.

Carleton: Thank you so much.

Follow Russell A. Carleton on Twitter, @pizzacutter4

To order a copy of, “The Shift”, Click Here.

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While Jay Bruce helped Cleveland secure a spot in the history books at home, his former team was mired in more misery on the road, as the Cubs clobbered the Mets 17-5 at Wrigley Field.

In his third start back from a right shoulder injury, Matt Harvey threw 86 pitches in 3.1 innings, walking four, surrendering five runs on seven hits. Like a real estate agent in a serious rut, he struggled with his location, location, location.

After the game, his few words were a far cry from his pitch count. “After today, it’s just frustrating,” Harvey said. “There’s not much else to say.”

The rookie Mets bullpen combination of Chasen Bradford, Jacob Rhame, Kevin McGowan and Jamie Callahan allowed in the final three innings to let the Cubs make it a laugher.

Terry Collins was frustrated with the pitching after the game saying, “Go after some guys. … Eleven walks? Not at this level. You can’t do that.”

The Mets gave Cubs counterpart Jon Lester’s arm a workout, as well, forcing him to toss 78 pitches through three innings, but the lefty bounced back only needing 36 over the final three innings to finish at 114 for his 11th win of the season.

Jose Reyes led off the first with a solo shot to left center field, but Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant answered back in the bottom of the inning with a pair of singles, and a walk by Anthony Rizzo loaded them up for back to back ground outs by Willson Contreras and Ian Happ, giving the Cubs the lead they would never relinquish.

Former teammate Rene Rivera pounced on Mets relief pitching with a pair of doubles for two runs batter in, and Albert Almora Jr., arriving late to the party in the seventh, jacked a three-run homer, adding an additional three runs in the eighth on a line drive triple to right field.

Three Mets rookies made some offensive noise for naught, but a positive sign of what’s in store at the plate for next season. Amed Rosario went 3 for 4 with two runs scored, Travis Taijeron was 2 for 3 with a walk, and Dominic Smith provided some power with a two-run shot when the game was well out of reach.

The post Harvey, Bullpen Implode as Cubs Maul Mets appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

When it comes to Steven Matz, two things are clear: he has a history of injuries and he is a talented pitcher.

The 25-year-old had Tommy John Surgery in 2010; a year after he was drafted by the Mets. During his first season with the big-league club in 2015 he was placed on the disabled list for a partially torn left lat muscle, dealt with a blister, and was sidelined with back spasms and back discomfort. A year later he had a shoulder impingement, was placed on the disabled list for left shoulder tightness, and was treated for bone spurs.

Even with all those injuries he has managed to pitch well in his 28 career starts. He has gone 13-8 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 168 innings pitched. This past May 25, Matz won his seventh game in row and stood among elite company at 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA. He has definitely shown some signs of brilliance at the major league level.

If Matz stays healthy in 2017, the sky could be the limit for the southpaw. Staying healthy is his goal and he has taken a different approach as of late.

“I try to take all aspects of it, nutrition, strength conditioning and the baseball work,’’ Matz told reporters at Tradition Field on Wednesday. “I don’t think there is one thing that has caused me to get hurt the past couple of years, it’s just the way it is, but I think I can learn some things from last year.”

Matz is eating healthy, receiving massage therapy, and taking anti-inflammatories every once in a while.

Jacob deGrom joined his friend Matz in Port St. Lucie and both pitchers took advantage of the Mets TrackMan system. This system is analytical software which tracks a pitcher’s delivery.

For Matz, taking one day at a time is key.

“I don’t try to put any numbers on it,” Matz also said to reporters Wednesday. “I realize it’s most beneficial if I focus on what you’re doing today, then with that mindset, just go out and do what you got to do. All the preparation you did to get there should take care of itself.”

And preparation he did. Aside from the natural approach he took in terms of diet, he also worked out with fellow major leaguers Logan Forsythe, Ben Zobrist, and Chase Headley.

Mets fans can only hope that 2017 is Matz’ healthiest year to date. If so, it may be something special.

The post Steven Matz Eyes Healthy 2017 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Last offseason, the Mets lost out on the prime player they were targeting in free agent Ben Zobrist. The team though may have themselves a very Zobrist like player in 2017 with a versatile  Jose Reyes.

Reyes could not have done anymore for the 2016 Mets, proving that he was not the washed up veteran that many thought he had become. Things had come full circle for the man who signed with the Mets as an international free agent at the young age of 16.

Jose showed his ability to adapt to new positions, manning the hot corner with relative ease. He was able to fill in at shortstop to spell Asdrubal Cabrera when necessary as well.

In order to make himself more attractive to the Mets, Reyes had even offered to play outfield in 2016. It is said that when Sandy Alderson was discussing bringing Reyes aboard with his agent Peter Greenberg, he had asked his thoughts on Jose playing left field as the the team was also pursuing Cuban free agent, Yulieski Gurriel at the time.

“Tell Chris [Leible, one of Greenberg’s deputies] to get me a left fielder’s glove,” Reyes said. (NY Post)

Reyes wanted to show he was willing to do whatever the Mets may have needed. He just wanted another chance. Reyes received it and rewarded his team with some vintage play.

To add to his super utility type role in 2017, it is possible we may see Reyes get some time in the outfield in certain situations. With an entire spring training to work on it for the coming year, it will be interesting to see if it is a route the Mets may look to take.

Reyes provided the Mets with a great bat atop the order in his 60 games with the team. Jose hit to a .267/.326/.443 batting line to go along with eight homers and 24 RBI. Reyes also swiped nine bases and helped produce 45 runs.

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Asdrubal Cabrera continues to amaze, smacking a two-run homer into the Coca Cola Corner to put the Mets on the board in the first inning last night.

It was the 21st blast of the season for Cabrera and his 20th as a shortstop in 2016, surpassing Jose Reyes‘ 19 homers in 2006 for the most home runs by a Mets shortstop in a single season.

Three of Cabrera’s last eight home runs dating to August 26 have come with no outs in the first inning. Cabrera is batting .358 (39-109) in his 31 games since coming off the DL on August 19 and he has a .923 OPS in the second half of the season.

Original Article – Sep 13

One of the most underrated stories of this roller coaster of a season so far is the outstanding play and veteran presence of first year Met shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera.  An under the radar signing in early December of 2015 after failing to acquire Ben Zobrist and, along with Neil Walker, revamping their up the middle defense which was porous to say the least during the Mets World Series run last October, ‘Cabbie’ has been more than just a solid fielder.  His offense has been one of the season’s pleasant surprises and his consistency and leadership truly are an inspiration.

When Daniel Murphy was not retained by the New York Mets, a void was not only left in the middle of the Mets lineup, but also on the top step of the Mets dugout.  Anyone who watched the Mets during Murphy’s tenure knows that he was one of the best teammates anyone could ask for.  Murphy never stopped rooting for his teammates and was often the first to meet not only a triumphant player after a home run, but a struggling player with an inspirational message or supportive gesture.  Cabrera has picked up where Murph left off and has been more than the Mets bargained for.

Despite being hobbled with an ailing knee, Asdrubal has been as steady and consistent as ever.  He has himself stated, that if the Mets were not in a pennant race, he would be resting his balky knee.  He is suffering from a strained patellar tendon that is likely causing him pain in the front of his lower knee whenever he puts significant weight on the area.  Twisting, running, pivoting as well as quick stops and starts can exacerbate the pain.

If you watch him play, however, you would never know.  Being lucky enough to be sitting on the Mets dugout for the Saturday and Sunday games this past weekend, I can vouch first hand for just how much this is bothering him.  After his triple in the first inning of yesterday’s contest, he was doubled over with his hands on his knees and constantly manipulating the area.  What he did not do, or even slightly allude to, was look into the dugout for a coach or a trainer.  His back was turned to his dugout, and no trainer was summoned.

In a year filled with an almost comical lineup of injuries, Cabrera refuses to be another casualty.  Yes, he had a DL stint this past August after exiting the July 31st game vs the Dodgers when he almost could not run under his own power to score a run. However, since his likely premature return, he has thrived.  Since his return on August 19th, Asdrubal has raised his average 20 points and is hitting .384 with six home runs and 15 RBI in 22 games over 19 starts.  His slugging percentage is at a career high .466 and he has helped the Mets accrue the most home runs in franchise history between their shortstop/second base combo.

Cabrera is doing all this offensively, while playing a steady and proficient shortstop defensively with only six errors (career low pace for a full season) constantly making the routine and not so routine plays in the hole the likes of which we have not seen since his current left side of the infield mate Jose Reyes patrolled that area on a daily basis.

In addition to his on the field game, his leadership impact can not be quantified.  Despite a painful knee, he is never hesitant to climb the dugout steps to remove a teammates helmet after a homerun, a custom Met fans have embraced.  He is setting an example for young players by not only playing through pain, but thriving.  He is suffering in silence and asking for no leniency or special accommodations.  He is wincing, limping, and at some points hobbling as he leads this club by example down the stretch.

The quintessential example of this was on Sunday’s game in Atlanta.  Logging seven innings in the field in what had become a blowout laugher, Cabbie came to bat in the top of the 8th with a runner on.  In his fifth at bat of the day, with his team enjoying an eight run cushion, he flew out to left field.  Despite already tallying three hits and with his team likely having one foot on the flight to DC, Asdrubal slammed his bat down in frustration and screamed audibly loud enough for me to hear despite being a couple of hundred feet away.

In a day where all professional sports are changing to make things more soft and friendly, Cabrera is an old school throwback – a tough player that is the purest definition of the term “gamer”.  Hopefully his young teammates are taking note and trying to emulate his propensity to play baseball the right way and COMPETE, regardless of circumstances.

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