Position: DH/OF, B/T: L/L

Age: 31 (04/21/1992)

2023 Traditional Stats: 121 G, 425 PA, .235/.348/.416/.764, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 14 2B, 57 BB, 89 SO

2023 Advanced Stats: 111 wRC+, 20.9% SO%, 13.4% BB%, .268 BABIP, .368 xwOBA, 0.6 fWAR, 0.6 bWAR

RUNDOWN

The Dodgers selected Joc Pederson in the 11th round of the 2010 MLB draft. He soon made his major league in 2014 and became an everyday outfielder for the team during his tenure through the 2020 season. He signed a one-year deal with the Cubs in 2021 but was flipped to the Braves at the deadline, earning consecutive World Series rings.

After producing his second All-Star season in 2022, Pederson accepted the San Francisco Giants’ qualifying offer to return to the Bay Area for 2023. He began the season as the primary designated hitter for the Giants, but landed on the injured list twice during the season: once in May with wrist inflammation and another time in June with a hand contusion.

A lifetime .237/.336/.464/.800 hitter, Pederson has always been a power hitter first. His exit velocity took a slight dip from 2022, going from 93.1 to 92.1, but his maxEV was the highest of his career at 116.6. His hard-hit percentage was also the highest of Pederson’s career in 2023 at 52.2%.

While Pederson can play the corner outfield positions, he ranked in the bottom percentiles in both range and arm value but was in the 61st percentile in arm strength at 86.6 mph. He would make an excellent candidate for a team looking for a full-time designated hitter. In 2023, the lefty was in the 90th percentile in xwOBA (.366), 82nd percentile in xSLG (.481), 91st percentile in average exit velocity (92.1), 96th percentile in hard-hit percentage (52.2%) and 79th percentile in barrel percentage (12.1%).

His chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate were all league average, categories Pederson used to be near the bottom of the league at.

CONTRACT

Fangraph‘s crowd-sourced projections have Pederson netting a two-year deal at $12 million a year. With Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman leading the pack of the higher-priced power bats still available, a one-year deal, two, max, for Pederson makes sense.

Comparable to Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt and Adam Duvall, none of these players have signed yet. All project as designated hitters and should command similar deals to Pederson.

RECOMMENDATION

The free-agent market for designated hitters is still healthy. While more expensive options like Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger wouldn’t be high on the Mets’ radar, a player like Pederson could make sense.

Daniel Vogelbach acted as the Mets’ most “consistent” DH in 2023, but could never get things started. Pederson would be a significant upgrade from Vogelbach, especially because he can play the field if needed.

The Mets would likely only offer Pederson a one-year deal.

The post Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson, DH/OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The next year, Cohen brought in Max Scherzer, once again signaling that he was going in rather than folding. Beyond Scherzer, though, the only other significant moves the Mets made were to bring in Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar, both mid-tier veterans, and trade for Chris Bassitt. The team overachieved for much of the season before the team fell apart in September and October.

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into 2023, if the Mets wanted to win, that had to be the year. Justin Verlander replaced Jacob deGrom, and between the two aging starters, it was an all-in season. At that point, though, the Mets stopped; they did not make any significant changes to their lineup except replacing the struggling James McCann with the struggling Omar Narváez. Every part of the team crumbled in 2023.

Heading into 2024, David Stearns can choose to continue the path of the last three seasons or make some significant changes. As Stearns said, the Mets intend to compete in 2024, but compete for what? The answer to that question should be similar to what it was in 2022, with some notable differences.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Overview

The Mets’ ideal 2024 plan should go as follows:

1. Sign a No. 2 and a No. 3 starter
2. Bring in a No. 5 starter for one year; try out as many prospects as possible
3. Get one big bat, preferably at third base or corner outfield
4. Re-sign Pete Alonso
5. Sign one late-inning option
6. Fill the remaining hitting needs (2B/3B/RF/LF/DH) with mid-tier veterans, some for one year; evaluate Baby Mets as much as possible
7. Keep throwing darts at relief pitching with controllable arms

Focus on Starting Pitching

If there is one area of the team the Mets should rebuild this offseason, it is the starting pitching. The Mets’ lone holdover starters from 2023 are Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Quintana is 34 years old and not under contract beyond 2024, while Senga can opt out after 2025 if he pitches 234 innings over the next two seasons combined.

There are a number of quality pitching options on the market. The Mets need to acquire at least two starters with multi-year commitments. Instead of relying on aging aces, they need pitchers who have longer windows than a year or two. Although it would be ideal to have young, cheap starters filling out the rotation, that is not currently the case.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The linchpin of the Mets’ offseason should be Yamamoto. They’ve been scouting him for months. True, there is a risk for any player coming over from Japan. Still, Yamamoto had a 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, and 0.1 HR/9 in Japan last season. The Mets should do everything possible to woo him, especially because he is just 25 years old. Corbin Burnes is a trade option, but acquiring him would mean giving up prospects and a big contract extension.

I doubt Cohen opens the pocketbook for both pitchers. Yamamoto is the preferred option.

A No. 3 Starter

Jordan Montgomery is likely the best free agent in this category, coming off back-to-back solid seasons. Montgomery is worth a significant pursuit as long as the commitment is closer to four years than seven. Entering his age-31 season, he should still be a solid starter for some time. He’d certainly be pitching above his value as a third starter.

Trading for Tyler Glasnow, reportedly a Mets consideration, would be risky. He costs $25 million this season, and his 120.0 innings pitched in 2023 were a career-high. Glasnow would at best be a bridge answer toward the back of the rotation. The Mets should also pass on Dylan Cease.

Any More Starters?

If the Mets don’t intend to seriously contend in 2024, José Butto can be their fifth starter. In nine 2023 games (seven starts), Butto posted a 3.64 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 0.64 HR/9. His biggest issue is command; he averaged 4.93 BB/9, leading to a 1.33 WHIP.

Such a plan leaves little margin for error due to injury, though. Butto’s five-game performance at the end of 2023 was encouraging. Still, it’s a small sample and leaves the Mets very thin beyond him. David Peterson will miss much of the season, and Tylor Megill has shown he’s not a starting option.

Wade Miley and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the most logical choices to fill out the rotation. Both would likely take one-year deals. The Mets should not pursue reclamation projects like Lucas Giolito or Luis Severino unless they come cheap.

Promote the Kids in 2024

Prospects Mike Vasil (MLB.com Mets No. 9), Christian Scott (No. 12), Dominic Hamel (No. 16), and Tyler Stuart (No. 17) are all projected to debut in 2024, per MLB.com. Vasil is the most touted, though he had a 5.30 ERA in 16 Triple-A starts. Still, he allowed three or fewer runs in six of his last eight starts.

All four should get opportunities this season. The Mets must figure out which of their minor leaguers could be part of the team in 2025 in some capacity. The team has not developed a pitching prospect into a consistent contributor in years (I’d argue since deGrom in 2014). They need to see if that can change.

Patch Up Bullpen But Don’t Overcommit

The Mets have only Edwin Díaz and Brooks Raley as reliable bullpen options in 2024. Still, they should not seek to bring back David Robertson, who, at nearly 39, would represent a win-now move.

If they want to add one setup man, Jordan Hicks, Yuki Matsui, Robert Stephenson, or Keynan Middleton should be the options they consider. At 27, Hicks will be the most coveted but may seek a closer spot. Matsui is coming from Japan. Stephenson overhauled his pitching repertoire, while Middleton had a sudden solid season. Some are worth longer commitments than others, but choosing one would be a good way to methodically build the bullpen.

Joey Lucchesi can take over as the long reliever. He had a mixed 2023 season, but I think he does best in the two-to-four-inning range rather than as a starter. Perhaps he can be an opener, if needed.

For the rest of the bullpen, I think the Mets should utilize the strategy they erroneously followed in 2022-23: acquire many arms, including several optionable, and hope some stick. It was a mistake when they were trying to win a championship but makes sense in a holdover season. Brett Martin and Jackson Stephens are coming off significant injuries but had previous success and could be cheap signings.

The Mets can also try out some of their prospects in the bullpen if they don’t make it as starters. Finding a young, controllable, reliable reliever has been a Mets goal for several seasons with little success. For example, Scott may not make it as a starter long-term, but he has potential as a reliever.

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Add One Big Power Bat

This should not be the season the Mets look to load up their hitting due to the thin market. Still, the lineup has long lacked big-time power beyond Alonso, often causing him to press. Lindor undoubtedly has pop, but he’s not a pure slugger. Francisco Álvarez can still develop into a middle-of-the-order bat but struggled in the second half of 2023.

If the Mets could acquire Juan Soto without breaking the prospect bank, they should do it. However, I doubt the Padres would trade Soto for Ronny Mauricio, Kevin Parada, and Megill. They would likely want at least one of Luisangel Acuña (MLB.com No. 38), Drew Gilbert (No. 52), or Jett Williams (No. 78). Soto is worth it with one of those top prospects in the package, though. He is just 25 years old and can help solve the Mets’ outfield hitting issues.

Shohei Ohtani is every baseball fan’s dream, but Ohtani seems unlikely to come to the Mets. I’ve always wondered how long a two-way player’s body can hold out. Ohtani is by far the most valuable player in all of baseball, but how long can he remain so, even compared to other players his age?

The most likely free-agent options are Jorge Soler and Rhys Hoskins, who profile as DHs. I prefer Hoskins despite his ACL tear in 2023, as he has never posted a wRC+ lower than 112.

To me, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger should not be options. Chapman was mediocre in 2023. Bellinger had a resurgent season after several years of futility. Both declined qualifying offers and are likely to receive deals far beyond their actual value. They have high bust potential due to uneven performance over the past several seasons.

Pete Alonso. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Extend Alonso

Perhaps this should be listed as the No. 1 offseason priority. The Mets should negotiate against themselves before they need to negotiate against everyone else. Trading the biggest slugger in team history would be a huge mistake, one Stearns doesn’t seem keen on making.

Scott Boras and Alonso undoubtedly would prefer to hit the market. Still, the Mets should do everything possible to persuade Alonso to sign an extension beforehand. They should not be sanguine about their ability to outbid everyone else next year.

Boras claimed he’s not using Matt Olson‘s eight-year, $168 million deal as a starting point for Alonso’s contract. The Mets should use that as a hard line in negotiations. Olson’s 5.0 fWAR in his final year with Oakland was close to double Alonso’s 2.8 mark in 2023. The Mets can’t push that line too far, but staying away from the 10-year threshold is worth adding some extra per-year dollar value to appease Alonso.

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

How to Handle the Infield

Alonso will be the Opening Day first baseman. Lindor is locked in at shortstop. The other two infield positions are more iffy.

Jeff McNeil played primarily at second base in 2023, but he saw a decent amount of time at both corner outfield positions. Although the Mets can still move him around, it seems that his home is still second base. If so, that would leave just third base open.

Internally, the Mets have Acuña, their No. 1 prospect, who profiles as a second baseman and could debut in 2024, though he won’t be their Opening Day starter. If he comes up and plays well, McNeil can shift to the outfield on a more full-time basis. For now, though, the assumption should be that the Mets need a starting third baseman and another option who can play second when McNeil moves to the outfield.

Gio Urshela and Justin Turner could both fit that bill. Turner is the better hitter, but Urshela is younger and likely cheaper. Both have positional versatility. Jeimer Candelario would be more of an offense-first move. He posted an OPS of at least .795 in three out of the past four seasons. Candelario’s projections have ranged between $11-18 million, and this move is not worthwhile at the upper end, nor in the four-year range. Still, he should be on the Mets’ radar as a third baseman.

What of the Mets’ three infield prospects who played in 2023? Mauricio played mostly second base and posted a .248/.296/.347 line in 108 plate appearances. Mark Vientos hit .211/.253/.367 and posted -0.9 fWAR in 233 plate appearances. Baty slashed .212/.275/.323 with -0.5 fWAR in 389 plate appearances. It’s difficult to justify a major league spot for any of them, but the Mets must have a definitive answer about all three.

Adam Duvall. Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield

Considering that Starling Marte’s legs are such a critical part of his game, it’s unreasonable to expect him to bounce back in 2024. Still, he’s under contract for two more years and will probably be part of the Mets’ plans. None of the Mets’ outfield prospects seem likely to hit the majors in 2024. Therefore, If McNeil sticks at second, they need two corner outfielders for next season (although one can potentially platoon with Marte). Soto would ideally be one of them, but he doesn’t seem likely for the Mets.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could draw their interest. Gurriel is generally a solid defender and a mostly average bat. If the Mets want to look toward the Asian leagues again, Jung Hoo Lee is also an option. He’s only 25, but he may not project as a power bat in the MLB. Teoscar Hernandez‘s name has repeatedly come up, but the only way I’d pursue him is on a shorter-term deal commensurate with his poor 2023 performance.

The Mets could also pursue a bridge outfielder. Adam Duvall was on their radar last year, and he posted a .247/.303/.531 slash line (116 wRC+) while playing an adequate corner outfield.

How this Works for 2025

The Mets reset by selling off in 2023, but it left them with many holes. Realistically, they won’t be able to fill all those holes in one offseason, nor should they try. Ideally, they can build enough talent so as not to need another major overhaul in 2025. This doesn’t mean writing off 2024, but it does mean not going all-in for a championship.

If they can lock down two front-end starting pitchers, it will be easier to fill in the back of the rotation in 2025. Perhaps one of their prospects can become a fifth starter, which would leave them in a solid position heading into 2025.

The bullpen is a bigger problem. That’s why a setup man makes the most sense. Solve those problems in 2024 and then try to fill in the rest. They’re unlikely to fix the entire bullpen in one free agency cycle.

In the lineup, if they extend Alonso and sign another power bat, they’re more likely to be able to rely on the kids in 2025. Obviously, this depends on Álvarez and McNeil hitting closer to their potential. Possibly signing one other solid bat and a couple of bridge veterans can fill out the lineup.

This would spur the hope that one of their prospects — Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, Acuña, or Williams — can become a viable starting option, possibly necessitating only one significant lineup move in 2025. That’s also when Gilbert, Parada, and Alex Ramírez could join the mix if the Mets don’t trade them first.

This is not a low-spending strategy at all. But it’s a way to try to fill some bigger holes, patch up others until more resources are available, and bridge the gap until the Mets’ top prospects are ready.

One Big Issue

The Mets have many players hoping for improvement in 2024, but they did little at the coaching level to facilitate it. Although changing managers could help, keeping Jeremy Barnes and Jeremy Hefner means the players will be receiving similar coaching. Eric Chávez and Barnes have not been able to develop the Mets’ hitting prospects. Hefner has failed with virtually every Mets pitcher except Diaz.

When Stearns and Mendoza came in, it would have made the most sense to change coaches, as well. Not doing so is a poor prospect for all Mets players, either from elsewhere or from within the organization.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Why Not Buy a Team?

Some Mets fans will bristle at not trying to win a championship every year. It’s sort of the Yankees George Steinbrenner syndrome: what we can’t build, we’ll buy.

Still, Cohen has made clear that this is not a sustainable long-term strategy. The Mets could choose to mostly sit out this free agency cycle, but that would mean potentially tanking in 2024 and even 2025. That doesn’t appear to be in their plans.

This is why much of my proposed strategy involves multi-year deals. The team should determine which acquisitions would be part of their longer-term plans. Ideally, they would be able to play all their young players without being forced to sign other starters, but those players are simply not reliable.

There is a fundamental difference between many of these deals and the Mets’ signing of Marte in 2022. Acquiring a 33-year-old for four years when the player is so reliant on speed is never a good idea. By contrast, players like Hoskins, Soler, and Candelario, all in their early 30s, are power threats rather than speed. Signing them is a lot safer than Marte was.

I still think Cohen can try the strategy he proposed when he first joined the team: spending money in the interim while trying to build a sustainable future. The Mets have enough prospects in the upper minors to be able to field a cheaper roster if they can develop those players. For now, they still need those augmenting pieces, and that will come mainly by spending money. Still, it’s not wise to go out and splurge on every big name on the market in pursuit of a championship in 2024.

We’ll see what path Stearns chooses as he begins to shape the Mets in his vision.

The post Opinion: Mets Offseason Plan Should Begin With End in Mind appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Big League Starter

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Nimmo had an outstanding 2023 campaign. He played in 152 games, which is a career-high, and the second year in a row he played over 150. After securing an eight-year, 162 million dollar contract, Nimmo posted a strong .274/.363/.466 line, with a career-high 24 home runs and 68 RBIs batting out of the leadoff spot. Nimmo kept the same solid eye at the plate but struck out 30 more times in nine more plate appearances. In the field, Nimmo had another solid season, but the biggest plus was in a season marred by injuries; Nimmo was in the lineup almost every day, either in the outfield or at DH. Having stability in center field is something that allows the Mets to focus their attention elsewhere.

Big League Depth

The Mets only have Starling Marte signed in the outfield, with DJ Stewart arbitration eligible. Marte is coming off an injury-riddled campaign; it seems like a long shot the Mets will play him in center, even in an emergency.

Upper Levels Depth

At Triple-A, the Mets have Brandon McIlwain and Lorenzo Cedrola. McIlwain spent the majority of the year at Double-A but finished off the last third of the season at Triple-A. Overall, he slashed .247/.356/.393 with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases while playing the majority of his games in center field. While not the highest upside profile, he hits for some power, steals some bases and has a good batting eye. Cedrola was injured for most of the year, but when he played, he managed to slash .250/.368/.399 with six home runs and 15 stolen bases. Cedrola has much less power to offer, but in his small sample size, he ran a 27/30 BB/K ratio, a vast improvement from his 13/84 ratio in the 2022 season.

At Double-A, the Mets have top prospect Drew Gilbert waiting in the wings. After he arrived from Houston as part of the Justin Verlander trade, all Gilbert did was hit. He slashed .325/.423/.561 with Binghamton, with six home runs and two stolen bases. Overall, between the Astros and the Mets, Gilbert slashed .289/.381/.487 with 18 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Gilbert isn’t the most imposing figure at 5’9″ and 195 lbs, but when he gets a hold of a ball, his left-handed swing sends them a long way. Gilbert could wind up starting the year in Triple-A if the Mets see fit, putting him one step away from Flushing.

Drew Gilbert. Photo by Photo by Anne-Marie Caruso of NorthJersey/USA TODAY NETWORK

In addition to Gilbert, the Mets have Rowdey Jordan and Rhylan Thomas to consider in center. Jordan profiles more as a super utility player, playing every position but first base, shortstop and catcher, but having too much versatility isn’t something to be afraid of. Jordan hit .230/.344/.733 with 13 home runs and 30 stolen bases. He has a propensity for striking out but also has shown the ability to take walks. Rhylan Thomas was a fast riser in the Mets system, starting his season in Low-A St. Lucie and finishing up in Double-A. Across three levels, Thomas slashed .328/.407/.425 with three home runs and seven steals.

However, these aren’t the only prospects who may be center field options. Luisangel Acuña, acquired from the Texas Rangers in the Max Scherzer trade, played four games in center for the Rangers Double-A team and has been mentioned as getting some playing time in center field to get his bat into the lineup. Between the Rangers and Mets, Acuña slashed .294/.359/.410 with nine home runs and 57 stolen bases. He primarily played shortstop but took reps at second base as well. While the power vanished when he came to the Mets, he continued to steal bases. It would not be surprising to see him start the season in Triple-A.

Jett Williams, Photo by Bronson Harris of the Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Lastly, Jett Williams finished his first full season in professional baseball in Double-A after tearing through both A-ball levels. Over the entire season, Williams slashed .263/.425/.451 with 13 home runs, 45 stolen bases and 104 walks. Williams, primarily a shortstop, also played 21 games in center field. Since Williams only got 26 plate appearances in Double-A, he will likely return to Double-A to continue his ascension up the ladder with an off-chance of seeing Citi Field in the 2024 season.

Potential Acquisitions

The Mets will be in the same position they were last season – looking for a potential fourth outfielder who can spell all three outfield spots. Despite his comments saying the Mets had more talent but may not have tried as much – Tommy Pham would make sense, especially after the season he put up for both the Mets and the World Series runner-up Arizona Diamondbacks. Harrison Bader makes some sense, offering good defense with some offensive value – but has struggled to stay on the field and would probably require more than a one-year contract due to his age. Adam Duvall also could make sense in a vacuum, offering a lot of power and the ability to play all three outfield positions.

The post Mets Organizational Depth Chart: Center Field appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Shohei Ohtani. Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

With new president of baseball operations David Stearns at the helm, the New York Mets look to leave the 2023 season in the rearview mirror and move forward in a new direction as they attempt to ascend towards contention. With a top-heavy free agent class on the horizon, let’s take a look at the top five players that should be on the Mets’ wish list this offseason.

1). Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH

This one is a no-brainer.

Shohei Ohtani’s forthcoming free agency is among the most highly-anticipated cases in MLB history. It’s not often the best player in the sport reaches the open market, and even that label may be selling Ohtani’s talents short. He was the best hitter in the league this season as he slashed .304/.412/.654 with 44 home runs and a 180 wRC+. Not to mention, as a pitcher, he posted a 3.14 ERA and 11.39 K/9 across 23 starts on the mound, This is all likely to culminate in the second MVP award of his career.

Signing a player of Ohtani’s caliber comes with a bevy of benefits both on and off the field, making him a dream acquisition for any team. There have been numerous reports regarding the Mets’ interest in him, and it would certainly appear that owner Steve Cohen is willing to go above and beyond to bring Ohtani to Queens if he decides to leave the West Coast. It’s a foregone conclusion that he will command the largest deal in baseball history, surpassing teammate Mike Trout’s $426.5 million pact with the Angels. This despite some lingering concerns about his longevity and durability as a pitcher following his elbow surgery in September.

Regardless, Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of talent and should be atop the Mets’ wish list this offseason.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

2). Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP

With the Mets in need of another frontline starter to pair with Kodai Senga, there’s no better option than his fellow countrymen in Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The buzz around Yamamoto’s name has been palpable for quite some time now, and for good reason. The 25-year-old has taken Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) by storm since debuting in 2017, compiling a 1.82 ERA and 9.3 K/9 across nearly 900 innings in 172 games with the Orix Buffaloes. Yamamoto won each of the MVP award, Triple Crown, and Sawamura Award (equivalent of the Cy Young award) in both 2021 and 2022. Additionally, he also looks poised to win the award for a third-consecutive season in 2023 after posting a 1.21 ERA with 16 wins and 169 strikeouts.

The Mets’ interest in Yamamoto has been well-documented, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that those around the league believe the team covets the star pitcher and will throw their hat into a ring as the potential highest bidder for his services. After an illustrious career in Japan, and an impressive showing in the World Baseball Classic this past spring, Yamamoto appears ticketed for a contract nearing $200 million once posted and would classify as a significant signing by David Stearns and company.

Jordan Montgomery. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

3). Jordan Montgomery, SP

The name of the game for New York this offseason is starting pitching, and Jordan Montgomery is equipped to arise as one of the best among the free agent crop.

Montgomery carved out a role in the backend of the New York Yankees’ rotation for several years before being dealt to the St. Louis Cardinals for Harrison Bader at last year’s trade deadline. There, he pitched to a 3.11 ERA across 11 starts down the stretch and replicated that success in 2023 with a 3.42 ERA and 127 ERA+ across 21 starts. He was then flipped yet again at the deadline, this time to the Texas Rangers, and was as dependable as ever with a 2.79 ERA, 160 ERA+ and 3.27 FIP in 11 regular season outings. Additionally, he added a strong performance in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Tampa Bay Rays last Tuesday.

Montgomery ranks as one of the more consistent starters in the game while being the type of player that any team would benefit from adding to the middle of their rotation, qualifying him as a seamless fit on the Mets’ roster next season.

Adam Duvall. Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

4). Adam Duvall, OF

The Mets have a surplus of young infield talent that’s ready to make a splash at the big-league level, but the cupboard in the outfield is a bit barren. Sure, Drew Gilbert may very well rake his way onto the major league roster at some point next year and it’s possible Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña shift out there, but a lot of question marks remain about the status of the group for 2024. With Brandon Nimmo as the only player that can truly be locked into a defined role as of right now, the Mets would greatly benefit from bringing in outside reinforcements to bolster their situation. That’s where Adam Duvall comes into play.

Duvall, who reportedly piqued the Mets’ interest last offseason, would once again make sense as a solution at one of the corner positions in Queens. The 35-year-old struck a one-year pact with the Boston Red Sox before the 2023 season and enjoyed one of the best campaigns of his career as he slashed .247/.303/.531 with a 116 wRC+ and 21 home runs despite appearing in just 91 games and 353 plate appearances after dealing with a left wrist injury for the second year in a row.

Duvall spent a majority of his time in Boston as a center fielder despite struggling there defensively, but he was worth 1 Out Above Average (OAA) combined in left and right field in just over 200 innings. He also remains a proficient base runner and supplies more than his fair share of power as evidenced by his 184 career homers, which should entice the Mets and make him a prime target this winter.

David Robertson. Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

5). David Robertson, RP

Who doesn’t love a good reunion?

The bullpen market isn’t exactly brimming with late-inning options this offseason, but the familiarity and fit that David Robertson would provide to the Mets likely sets him apart from the rest of the pack. He would help stabilize a unit that needs remodeling while also earning a chance to become the primary set-up man for Edwin Díaz, a role he was initially brought on to fulfill in 2023.

Robertson pitched to a 2.05 ERA with 14 saves in 40 appearances as a Met, and despite faltering after his trade to the Miami Marlins, he should still has plenty in the tank.

The post The Top Five Free Agents That The Mets Should Target appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Another potential bench option for the Mets is off the board. Outfielder Adam Duvall has reportedly agreed to a one-year, $7 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, as first reported by The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish. Duvall can earn up to $10 million with incentives.

Free Agent Outfielder Adam Duvall is in agreement with the Boston Red Sox. The deal is 1 year $7 million Dollars. Performance bonuses could get the deal up to $10 million dollars per source.

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) January 18, 2023

The 34-year-old Duvall has played mostly with the Braves since 2018, and hit 38 home runs with Atlanta and Miami in 2021. Last season he slashed .213/.276./.401 with 12 homers in 315 plate appearances.  Duvall will now join a Boston outfield that includes Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran.

With Duvall no longer available, the options are running out for the Mets to find a fourth outfielder. Duvall and Andrew McCutchen were the best players available, but now the Mets will have to look elsewhere if they want to add depth.  Some of the remaining options include Tommy Pham, Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, and a reunion with Tyler Naquin.

The post Report: Adam Duvall Agrees To Deal With Red Sox appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Good morning, Mets fans!

The Mets’ priority at this stage of free agency continues to be a fourth outfielder and on Friday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Mets are considering signing Tommy Pham for that role. Heyman also mentioned the possibility of Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall, Jurickson Profar, or Tyler Naquin. It was previously reported on Thursday that the Mets had been in contact with Andrew McCutchen, but he wound up signing with the Pirates on a one-year, $5 million deal.

Pham and Duvall especially have had success against lefties, an area in which the Mets struggled last year, so it’s no surprise to hear that the Mets are potentially interested in adding one of their bats to the bench. Even at this stage of free agency, the Mets have plenty of options to choose from for their fourth outfielder next year.

Latest Mets News

Pete Alonso and the Mets agreed to a one-year, $14.5 million contract to avoid arbitration. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, it is the largest deal ever for a first baseman in arbitration. In total, the Mets settled with six of their seven arbitration-eligible players.

In an article on MLB.com, Jim Callis noted about Brett Baty: “New York should give him its third-base job at some point in 2023 because he’d offer more offense and at least as much defense as 34-year-old incumbent Eduardo Escobar.”

The Mets announced that they are receiving Luis De La Cruz from the Orioles as the PTBNL in the James McCann trade.

The Mets’ organizational managers for 2023 have become official with Dick Scott managing Triple-A Syracuse, Reid Brignac managing Double-A Binghamton, Chris Newell managing High-A Brooklyn, and Gilbert Gómez managing Low-A St. Lucie.

The Mets re-signed Connor Grey to a minor league deal.

Latest MLB News

Juan Soto and the Padres agreed to a one-year, $23 million contract to avoid arbitration.

Lucas Giolito and the White Sox agreed to a one-year, $10.4 million contract to avoid arbitration.

Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers agreed to a one-year, $10.8 million contract to avoid arbitration.

Other notable players who signed contracts to avoid arbitration with their teams include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rhys Hoskins, Josh Hader, and Tyler O’Neill.

The Twins signed pitcher Chris Paddack to a three-year, $12.5 million contract extension.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic interviewed Carlos Correa, asking him about his unprecedented free agency experience.

Latest on MMO

Michael Mayer wrote about the Andrew McCutchen signing, including some other players who make sense for the Mets now that he is off the board.

Michael Mayer also wrote about the Mets’ interest in Tommy Pham.

Michael Famulari analyzed the importance of Brett Baty and Eduardo Escobar to the 2023 Mets in the aftermath of the Carlos Correa deal falling through.

On This Date in Mets History

1998: The Mets signed Japanese pitcher Masato Yoshii to a one-year deal. He would go on to pitch to a 6-8 record with a 3.93 ERA during his debut season, earning a contract extension from the team.

Birthdays: Aaron Altherr (32), Mike Pelfrey (39), Ross Jones (63)

The post Morning Briefing: Mets’ Focus Stays on Fourth Outfielder appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Adam Duvall

Position: OF

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 34 (09/04/1988)

2022 Traditional Stats: 86 G, 315 PA, 12 HR, 16 2B, 36 RBI, 61 H

2022 Advanced Stats: 87 wRC+, -0.1 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR, .278 BABiP, .293 xwOBA, -2.1 UZR, -3 DRS, 5 OAA

Rundown

A year after hitting 38 homers and driving an NL-best 113 runs, Adam Duvall got off to a dreadful start in 2022. Entering the year as the Braves’ starting center fielder, Duvall was hitting just .191/.258/.268 with two homers and 60 strikeouts across 186 plate appearances through May 31. Duvall lost his spot in center to Michael Harris, though he was able to stay in the lineup in left field due to Eddie Rosario‘s injury.

After Harris was added to the lineup, Duvall looked more like his old self. He hit .244/.302/.588 with 10 homers and nine doubles in 129 plate appearances from June 1-through-July 23 while playing solid defense in left field. However, Duvall suffered a wrist injury while chasing a foul ball and underwent season-ending surgery.

While neither his traditional nor advanced stats jump off the page, Duvall hit well against left-handed pitching, hitting .233/.262/.562 with six homers in 78 plate appearances against southpaws. The biggest concern with Duvall has always had a low walk rate and high strikeout rate, with his 6.7% mark in 2022 being right in line with his career number, and his strikeout rate rose to a career-worst 32.1%.

Defensively, Duvall was a Gold Glover in center field in 2021 and while his numbers took a bit of a step back in 2022, he has displayed an ability to play all three outfield positions effectively. Statcast ranks him in the 88th percentile in outs above average, racking up 4 OAA in center field and 1 OAA in left field. He also rates as an above-average base runner, registering 2.7 BsR and ranking in the 67th percentile in sprint speed in 2022.

Contract

Coming off a down year, Duvall isn’t expected to receive a large contract in salary or length. Spotrac projects him to sign a one-year contract worth just under $7 million.

Duvall isn’t a superstar by any means, but his power will always make him an intriguing target for teams. As he ages, Duvall may be limited to playing just the corner outfield positions, and he has played some first base in his career.

Recommendation

The Mets still have a need for a fourth outfielder and Duvall’s versatility makes him a good fit for the team. He could also serve as a right-handed complement to Daniel Vogelbach, which the team noticeably lacked with Darin Ruf‘s struggles. With J.D. Martinez signing with the Dodgers, Duvall should be among the Mets’ primary depth targets.

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Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a historic 2022-2023 Mets and we still haven’t reached the New Year. They have re-signed and added numerous MLB stars and could potentially add Carlos Correa as their third baseman.

With all of these signings, including Correa, the Mets are estimated to have a $384 million payroll, and close to $500 million after competitive balance taxes are included.  While a normal owner wouldn’t spend another dime, Steve Cohen is a different animal, and will most likely spend more.

Down below, wee highlighted the top remaining free agents available ahead of the 2023 season and how they fit on the current Mets roster.

AJ Pollock

AJ Pollock had a down year for the Chicago White Sox in 2022. He recorded a 91 OPS+ and .389 slugging percentage in 138 games. However, Pollock slashed .286/.316/.619/.935 against lefties in 2022 and clubbed 11 home runs in 126 at-bats against south-paws.

Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall had a forgettable 2022 season after only playing in 86 games due to injury. He is a perfect bounce-back candidate for the Mets, due to his home run prowess and ability to play all three outfield positions. Duvall was also fantastic in the 2021 season, where he clubbed 38 home runs and led the NL with 113 RBI.

Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen had an average season with the Brewers in 2022. He recorded a 99 OPS+ and hit 17 home runs. However, McCutchen recorded a respectable .316 OBP and 4 DRS in left field last season. He could provide the Mets with veteran leadership in the clubhouse and would be the cheapest option out of the remaining outfielders.

Michael Fulmer

Michael Fulmer has come a long way since winning the rookie of the year in 2016. He made the switch to the bullpen in 2020 and put up respectable numbers between the Tigers and Twins in 2022. Fulmer recorded a 3.39 ERA and 113 ERA+ in 63 2/3 innings in 2022 and would be a solid add for the Mets, who originally drafted him in 2011.

Zack Britton

Zack Britton has missed significant time the past two seasons due to a bone chip in his elbow and Tommy John surgery. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Britton is looking for a one-year deal before the 2023 season. Britton could reunite with his old manager Buck Showalter in Queens and rebuild his numbers in low-leverage situations.

Trey Mancini

Trey Mancini had an eventful season in 2022. He was traded mid-season by a Baltimore team in the playoff race and then won a World Series with the Astros after slashing a miserable .176/.258/.364/.622 in Houston. While he is projected to make the most money out of the noted free agents, Mancini fits the profile that the Mets have been looking for out of the DH position. He clubbed 114 home runs during his tenure in Baltimore and has played for Buck Showalter in the past.

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Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets roster is missing a fourth outfielder right now. Last season, manager Buck Showalter enjoyed the ability to get a player off their feet for a day by rotating in a defense-first outfielder.

The first half of the 2022 season saw outfielder Travis Jankowski appear in 43 games with 17 starts. The Mets used Ender Inciarte as a defensive replacement in 11 games. Trade deadline acquisition Tyler Naquin played in 49 games but only started 29.

None of those players remain on the Mets. Right now the Mets projected top outfield option is Khalil Lee. New York will keep their main three of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte as the starters but who is available to back them up?

Adam Duvall

Duvall was a plus defender for the Braves last season. In 86 games he posted 5 outs above average. That total ranked 26th among outfielders in baseball last season. Duvall rotated through all three outfield positions, playing the most in center field. Duvall has always shown defensive ability in the outfield but his transition into center didn’t happen until he became a Brave in 2021.

Duvall’s bat has slowed down. Since his career-best 2019 season, his wRC+ has decreased each of the following three seasons, hitting 87 last season or 13% worse than the average major leaguer. Duvall still provides solid power as he was on pace to hit 24 home runs over a full season. That pop is rare among the quality of outfielders available for this position.

Jurickson Profar

Profar is the ultimate utility man. He’s played every position except catcher in his career. Unfortunately, he’s not a plus defender at any of them. Still, despite his defensive deficiency, a player with the ability to play everywhere has value in the major leagues.

Profar recorded a 110 wRC+ last season and remains a tough out at the plate. He walked in 11.1% of his at-bats and struck out just 15.7% of the time. He’s a pest and excellent at working deep counts and raising pitch counts. That hitting profile plus his versatility fits what Showalter is ultimately looking for.

He may be out of the Mets price range for the position. Spotrac.com has his market value set at $14.9 million. That’s expensive for a bench bat.

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Jackie Bradley Jr. wouldn’t even have success at the plate if the ball was on a tee but he can certainly defend those who can. Bradley has made a career off being an excellent defensive centerfielder, consistently ranking in the tops of all defensive categories.

Last season he made 98 starts in the outfield and played in 146 games. He accumulated a higher outs above average than Brandon Nimmo and was tied for 13th in baseball among outfielders with 7. Bradley can play all three outfield positions and should come pretty cheap after multiple seasons of failing to do anything productive at the plate.

The Mets are lucky they locked up Nimmo. The center field market is absolutely barren this offseason but they’ll still need to add at least one more outfielder to complete the roster.

Other compelling names the Mets could look at are David Peralta, Tommy Pham, or Chad Pinder. They don’t need someone expensive, just someone who can catch a ball.

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Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Note, article one of this series, published earlier today, can be read here.

It has been a busy off-season for the New York Mets who have already ensured the payroll close to $350 million in 2023. However, as mentioned in article one of this series, a vital need still remains. That being the need to address the lack of power in the lineup.

If you missed what was outlined in article one, despite finishing fifth in runs scored in 2022, the Mets tied for 15th in MLB with just 171 home runs. Further, they also ranked low in a number of important power metrics.

So, given the Mets need for power, and their already inflated payroll, what are some potentially cost-effective options the Mets can explore?

Note, coincidently enough, a report came out today explaining that the Mets are not prioritizing power this off-season. Which is interesting given their lack thereof last season. 

Brandon Belt

For teams wanting to inject a true thumper into the middle of their lineup, they should probably give Brandon Belt a call at some point this winter. The veteran slugger has built his career on hitting, as he boasts an OPS+ of 123 and a .356 OBP across his 12 seasons in the majors. All of which were spent with the San Francisco Giants.

Granted, 2022 was a rough one for Belt. The left-handed hitter was hampered by injuries all year long as he played just 78 games before seeing his season ended by knee surgery. Ultimately, Belt slashed just .213/.326/.350 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. It was the worst hitting year of the veteran’s career.

Belt will turn 35 years old not long after Opening Day in 2023 and some may worry that he’s on the decline given his tough year in 2022. However, he is just a year removed from crushing 29 home runs in 325 at-bats in 2021 and he could be a weapon for the Mets in different ways in 2023.

Specifically, potentially being a part of a platoon at designated hitter (DH), filling in at first base when Pete Alonso needs a rest, or pinch hitting late in games. Regardless, Belt could be very effective if used in the right way and there’s no reason why he can’t reach double figures in homers if he can remain healthy.

Fangraphs’ crowd-sourced projections list a one-year deal worth around $10 million for Belt. For someone who has hit 15-or-more home runs in six season, he would bring a much-needed thump to the Mets’ lineup. Further, he is a respected presence in the clubhouse and a proven winner with two World Series rings.

Nelson Cruz 

Despite being 42 years old with a sparkling 18-year career in the majors already under his belt, Nelson Cruz has made it crystal clear that he intends on playing during the 2023 MLB season. The righty bat recently had eye surgery after dealing with inflammation in his left eye for more than a year. That may have had something to do with why Cruz endured the worst season of his lengthy career in 2022, hitting just .234/.313/.337 with 10 home runs in 507 plate appearances.

However, there is no doubt that the seven-time All-Star can still play a key role for a contender in the right role. Just as Albert Pujols did with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022, Cruz could provide a decent level of production from the DH spot and just be relied upon to provide some pop from the bottom half of the lineup.

Granted, his best baseball is probably behind him but he would add a wealth of experience to the clubhouse and he did hit 32 home runs as recently as 2021. There’s no reason why he can’t hit between 15-20 homers in 2023 and act as a mentor to the likes of Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.

Cruz should command less than $10 million per season, as he looks for one more shot at a World Series title. This could be a very low-risk move for the Mets who are looking for some veteran pop.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall is similar to Cruz and Belt in that he has built his career as a slugger that can hit for power, but he suffered a down year in 2022 due to injury. The 34-year-old hit just .213/.276/.401 (.677 OPS) with 12 homers and 36 RBI in 2022 before left-wrist surgery cost him almost all of the second half of the season.

However, when healthy, Duvall is a highly-effective slugger and he crushed a career-high 38 homers with a league-leading 113 RBI for the Marlins and Braves in 2021. That is only a year ago which proves that the veteran can still mash at a very high level and provide some big time pop.

An excellent defender that can make flashy plays with the glove, Duvall was on pace for 20 home runs before injury cut short his season in 2022. He’s primed for a bounce-back campaign in 2023 and he would offer Mets’ manager Buck Showalter some flexibility in that he can play solid defense in the outfield if needed.

However, due to his ability to hit absolute bombs, Duvall could be a better option as a designated hitter in a platoon role with Daniel Vogelbach. He would come cheap too given he’s projected to earn just $6.9 million in 2023, per Spotrac.com. He could be the perfect answer to the Mets’ lack of power in the lineup.

Again, part one of this short two-article series that was published earlier today can be found here. 

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