In Game 1, Scott threw a complete game shutout with 14 strikeouts. In Game 4, Scott threw another complete game, this time allowing one run and striking out five. Sure, it was a bit better of a showing, but the Astros still won.

If the Mets lost Game 6, Scott would be in Game 7, which would likely mean the end of the season.

Now, in 2024, the Mets find themselves in a similar situation with another ex-Met looming for a potential do-or-die playoff game. And just like in 1986, the Mets can’t let that happen. The Mets cannot go back to Philly for a do-or-die Game 5.

Zack Wheeler. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, a loss in Game 4 does not eliminate the Mets from the playoffs, but they need to do everything they can to finish the job without returning to Citizens Bank Park. The Mets do not want to see Zack Wheeler again.

Wheeler has pitched well against the Mets ever since the Amazins let him walk in free agency and even better this year. In his only regular-season start vs. the Mets in 2024 he went seven innings, allowed just two runs and struck out eight. Yes, the Mets beat him that day, but he was still great and Mets hitters still largely struggled.

In Game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Mets, Wheeler went seven scoreless with nine strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He may have been partially aided by a … generous home plate umpire, but Mets hitters still didn’t touch him. By game score, it was the second-best start of his postseason career, only trailing his 2022 NLCS Game 1 start when he also went seven scoreless. Sure, the Mets beat the Phillies that day as well, but they didn’t beat Wheeler. They beat Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering — not Wheeler.

Wheeler isn’t scuffing the baseball, but he’s dominating the Mets all the same. There’s no reason to expect him not to dominate again in Game 5. Yes, the Mets are 2-0 in games started by Wheeler this year, but they’ve scored a combined two runs off of him in 14 innings. The Mets have somehow escaped with two wins in two tries despite two dominant showings by Philly’s ace. Don’t push the luck. If anything, the Phillies are due to win a Wheeler start.

A do-or-die game in Philadelphia against a reinvigorated Phillies team, who would have just grabbed all the momentum back, and with Wheeler on the mound, is a recipe for disaster. Luckily for the Mets, they have an opportunity to not let that happen.

Another strong start from Jose Quintana is needed; every reliever should be available out of the bullpen. David Peterson, Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett and José Buttó should all be fresh after not being used in Tuesday’s win. Whatever you need to do to win this ballgame, do it. Carlos Mendoza needs to empty the bag of tricks. Play and manage like there is no Game 5.

The Mets have never had a champagne celebration at Citi Field but have the opportunity for one tonight. They need to pop the corks tonight or else they might not be popping them at all.

The post Mets Need to Treat Tonight Like it’s Game 5 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets survived Zack Wheeler’s start on Saturday and came roaring back in the 8th inning to take the first game of the series 6-2. The Mets fully have the momentum now, a win today will set up a clinching scenario at home in New York.

There was clear game script for the Mets on Saturday consisting of Kodai Senga, David Peterson, then the bullpen behind them. Reed Garrett, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were able to close the door behind the tandem of starters, preserving the Mets’ big guns for today.

Mets Lineup

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Mark Vientos, 3B
3. Brandon Nimmo, LF
4. Pete Alonso, 1B
5. Jose Iglesias, 2B
6. J.D. Martinez, DH
7. Starling Marte, RF
8. Francisco Álvarez, C
9. Harrison Bader, CF

Luis Severino was a hero in Game 1 of the NLWC series, staying in the game despite early troubles and locking down the Brewers lineup once the Mets got the lead in the 5th inning.

Severino pitched 182 innings in the regular season with a 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 1.242 WHIP, and a 101 ERA+. He faced the Phillies in back-to-back starts at the end of September allowing exactly three runs over six innings in each of them. The Mets won the start in Queens while the Phillies won the one in Philadelphia.

The Phillies have the following career numbers against Severino:

• Alec Bohm 0-3, 2 K
• Nick Castellanos 7-21, BB, 4 K
• Kody Clemens 0-4, K
• Bryce Harper 2-5, 2 HR, BB, K
• Austin Hays 0-4, 2 BB, K
• Brandon Marsh 1-4, K
• J.T. Realmuto 0-3, BB, K
• Kyle Schwarber 3-10, 2 2B, 3 K
• Bryson Stott 1-5, K
• Trea Turner 1-5, HR, BB, 2

Luis Severino. Photo by Jovanny Hernandez

Phillies Lineup

1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
2. Trea Turner, SS
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Nick Castellanos, RF
5. Bryson Stott, 2B
6. JT Realmuto, C
7. Brandon Marsh, LF
8. Edmundo Sosa, 3B
9. Johan Rojas, CF

Cristopher Sánchez has pitched 181 2/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.244 WHIP, and a 122 ERA+. In his last start of the season, he allowed four runs (three earned) over 4 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs.

Before that, he made back-to-back starts against the Mets where he allowed three runs from nine hits and six walks over 12 innings. The better start was in Philadelphia where he kept the Mets to one run over seven. The next time the Mets saw him they worked him for five walks.

The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-4
• Pete Alonso 4-18, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-4, 2 K
• Harrison Bader 2-6, 2 BB, K
• Jose Iglesias 3-6, 2B, HR, K
• Francisco Lindor 3-9, 2 BB
• Starling Marte 4-11, 2B, HR, BB, 2 K
• J.D. Martinez 2-7, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 4-13, BB, 3 K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-5, HR, K
• Luis Torrens 0-4, BB, K
• Mark Vientos 0-7, 2 BB, 6 K
• Jesse Winker 0-6, 2 K

Game Notes

Alec Bohm is not in the lineup for Philadelphia. After a tremendous first half of the season, Bohm has struggled since the All-Star break.

Prior to Game 2, manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed that Sean Manaea will start Game 3 on Tuesday. As for Game 4, Mendoza didn’t make a confirmation either way, however, Jose Quintana would make the most sense.

After Sunday’s Game 2, the Mets will finally return home for the first time since September 22. Games 3 and 4 will be at Citi Field before a Game 5 (if needed) takes place back in Philadelphia.

Three Things To Watch For

1. Momentum. The Mets enter play with momentum. On Saturday, the Phillies started things off with a dominating inning from Wheeler and a Kyle Schwarber bomb to take a 1-0 lead. The Mets took the energy out of the building with their rally in the 8th inning. If the Mets can score fast, they can let that pressure build up on the Phillies. If the Phillies strike first, they can swing that momentum pendulum back to their side. One thing is for sure, the Mets have shown over this week that it doesn’t matter when they lose the momentum, they will find a way to get it back.
2. Home runs. The Mets in 2024 are a home run hitting club. Pete Alonso hit the biggest homer of his career on Thursday night. Lindor hit a season-defining homer on Monday in Atlanta. The Mets didn’t homer at all in Saturday’s game against the Phillies. The Mets homered in each of Sánchez’s starts in September. Sánchez has allowed 11 home runs this season and seven of them happened in his last eight games pitched (50 1/3 innings).
3. Mets hit leaders. Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo each went 2-for-4 with two runs scored in Saturday’s game. Vientos had one critical RBI and Nimmo had two. Both hitters are also leading the Mets with five hits a piece. They are also in four way tie for runs scored at three. Vientos carried the Mets in the second half of the season. Nimmo carried them in the first. Things go well when they both hit at the same time.

The post Game Chat: Mets vs. Phillies, 4:08 P.M. appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Luis Severino. Photo by Jovanny Hernandez

Luis Severino

After pitching Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Luis Severino gets the nod in Game 2 of the NLDS. It was by no means an easy outing against the Brewers for Severino, who, after allowing two first-inning runs and two fourth-innings run, settled in and ended up throwing 105 pitches across six frames.

Severino has established himself as interchangeable with Sean Manaea as the Mets’ No. 1 starter this year. After a horrid 2023, Severino responded in 2024 with one of the better seasons of his career. He started 31 games, tossing 182 innings; the most he has thrown since 2018. Severino posted a 3.91 ERA to go along with a 3.88 xERA. He was everything that the Mets could have asked for when signing him to a one-year, $13 million “prove-it” deal.

In 2024, Severino has thrived on inducing soft contact (88th percentile average exit velocity and 75th percentile hard-hit rate) on the ground (72nd percentile ground-ball rate). He also did a good job not walking batters, posting a 7.9% walk rate (8.4% is league average).

For context, the Phillies rank around 10th in the majors in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Additionally, they hit the sixth-most ground balls in the league this year. The Phillies have also done a good job taking their walks, as they drew the seventh-most walks in the league this year.

As far as platoon splits go, Severino does fair better against the right-handed hitters (.615 OPS). Over his career, this holds true as well, mirroring the .615 OPS he has allowed this season. Interestingly enough, the Phillies, despite having stronger left-handed bats, are in the middle-of-the-pack when it comes to hitting right-handed pitchers in 2024. Specifically, they have a 104 wRC+ which ranks 13th in the big leagues. If you go even further, and look since the All-Star break, the Phillies rank 19th in the majors with a slightly-below average 98 wRC+.

Severino did make two starts against Philadelphia this year. Across those two starts, he allowed six runs in 12 innings (4.50 ERA). In each of his starts against Philadelphia (both in September; one at home and one on the road) Severino went six innings and allowed three runs in each start.

Cristopher Sánchez. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Cristopher Sánchez

Meanwhile, for the Phillies, they’ll turn to a starter who had a breakout season in 2024. Cristopher Sánchez threw 181 2/3 innings, posting a 3.32 ERA and 3.51 xERA. The 27-year-old set career highs in basically every statistical category and was selected to his first career All-Star game. He was certainly a revelation for the National League East winning Phillies.

In 2024, Sánchez pitched to contact (low strikeout rate) and did not walk many (84th percentile walk rate). Like Severino, the left-handed Sánchez gets a ton of ground balls (95th percentile) and does not allow hard contact (84th percentile average exit velocity and 82nd percentile hard-hit rate). Despite all this, Sánchez’s expected batting average ranked all the way down in the league’s 24th percentile.

By far the biggest weapon for the 2024 All-Star is his changeup. Sánchez’s changeup, which he throws nearly 36% of the time, has a batting average (BA) against of .177 and an expected BA (xBA) of .178. Among 2,533 qualified pitch types thrown by pitchers in 2024, Sánchez’s changeup owns the 12th-best run value in the big leagues.

For context, there are three Mets hitters who have a negative run value against the changeup this season; Harrison Bader (negative-four), Tyrone Taylor (negative-two), and Francisco Álvarez (negative-one). Everyone else has a positive run value against the pitch type with Mark Vientos leading the way at a plus-five run value and a staggering .325 batting average against the pitch type. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and J.D. Martinez all possess a plus-four run value against the changeup. Bottom-line, the Mets hit the changeup well overall.

As for the platoon splits, Sánchez is particularly good against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, but his OPS is certainly better against lefties than righties; .612 versus .672. Additionally, right-handed hitters are batting .261 against Sánchez this season. Good news for the Met is not only are they a predominately right-handed hitting lineup, but they have killed left-handed pitching overall this year. The Mets’ 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitching ranks third in the big leagues.

One of the most intriguing aspects of Sánchez’s season is how contrasting his home versus road splits are. They are so severe, Phillies manager Rob Thomson made the decision to pitch him in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park rather than on the road in Game 3. At home this year, Sánchez is allowing a minuscule .222 batting average and .544 OPS. Meanwhile, on the road, that OPS against jumps up to .813. In all, the left-handed starter owns a 7-3 record with a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Lastly, of any team in the big leagues, Sánchez has thrown the second-most innings of his career against New York. Across 37 1/3 innings, he owns a 2-2 record and a 3.62 ERA. The Mets have a team batting average of .215 and OPS of .679 against Sánchez overall. In 2024, specifically, Sánchez has tossed 17 2/3 innings against the Mets, allowing 16 hits and nine walks to go along with a 3.06 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

Final Thoughts

On the surface, the pitching matchup does not seem as titled toward Philadelphia as the traditional numbers may indicate. The area that Severino excels in; ground ball rate, limiting hard contact, and not walk batters, goes against what the Phillies’ offense has done this season. Not to mention, Philadelphia has faltered against right-handed pitching down the stretch. Granted, Severino did make two starts against the Phillies this year, and posted a not-so-great 4.50 ERA less than a month ago.

On the Phillies’ side of things, Sánchez is one of the best home pitchers in the big leagues this season and has historically had above-average results against the Mets. However, New York has hit left-handed pitching very well this season and profile well against the young Phillies All-Star’s best pitch quite well.

Regardless of all the above, a Game 2 victory for New York would be huge. They would head back to Citi Field, for the first time since taking a regular season series against the Phillies on September 22.

The post Luis Severino, Cristopher Sánchez; Breaking Down The Game 2 Pitching Matchup appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Starters & Bench (13)

1. Francisco Alvarez
2. Pete Alonso
3. Jose Iglesias
4. Francisco Lindor
5. Mark Vientos
6. Brandon Nimmo
7. Harrison Bader
8. Starling Marte
9. Luis Torrens
10. J.D. Martinez
11. Tyrone Taylor
12. Luisangel Acuña
13. Jesse Winker

Rotation (6)

1. Luis Severino
2. Sean Manaea
3. Jose Quintana
4. David Peterson
5. Kodai Senga
6. Tylor Megill

Bullpen (9)

1. Edwin Diaz
2. Phil Maton
3. Ryne Stanek
4. Reed Garrett
5. Jose Butto
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Danny Young

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