Series Preview: Mets, Dodgers Clash in Battle of NL’s Top Teams

Get your popcorn ready. The next four nights will be a real treat for Mets fans, as the Mets face their biggest test yet of the 2022 season. Beginning a ten-game west coast trip, the Mets had to Los Angeles, California, where they’ll meet a Dodgers team that holds the second-best record in the National League (33-17).

The team above them? Your New York Mets, who just completed a perfect 6-0 homestand by sweeping the Nationals. But the Mets didn’t simply sweep the Nats; they dominated them from start to finish. Over three games, the Mets outscored Washington 28-5, winning the last two games in shutout fashion. Met pitchers have thrown 21 consecutive scoreless innings. Before the Nats series, the Mets picked up a three-game sweep over the Phillies as well, including winning Sunday’s series finale with an epic comeback. After Nick Plummer‘s first career hit and home run tied the game in the ninth inning, Eduardo Escobar walked things off with a game-winning hit in the tenth.

Even with Cy Young-winning winning pitchers Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer still on the injured list, while breakout star Tylor Megill is working toward a comeback to the field as well, the Mets continue to find ways to win. Whether it be timely pitching by Carlos Carrasco (6-1 record, 109 ERA+) or the historic hitting of Francisco Lindor (who has recorded an RBI in 10 consecutive games), the Mets find themselves with huge early season division lead. Their current 10.5 game division lead is greater than any division lead they held all of last season; the fact that they’ve accomplished this by the first days of June is nothing short of incredible.

In LA, the 2017, 2018, and 2020 NL Champion Dodgers are still flying high atop their division. Although they lead the West by three games over the Padres, they’ve hit a wall lately – against the Pittsburgh Pirates! The Buccos have had the Dodgers number all year, as Pittsburgh went an unthinkable 5-1 against the Dodgers since early May, including a sweep this week at Dodger Stadium. That marked the Pirates first sweep of the Dodgers in LA since 2000. Despite their recent struggles, the Dodgers remain one of the best teams in all of baseball.

Their lineup boasts five qualified hitters with an OPS+ over 100 (Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Will Smith). Five Dodger arms in the starting rotation have a sub-3.30 ERA, including multi-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw, who continues to dominate with a 1.80 ERA (although he’s currently on the injured list with SI joint inflammation).

Last season, the Mets played the Dodgers seven times in less than two weeks and got outplayed. New York lost their first six games against LA before finally picking up their lone victory of the season series with a 7-2 win in LA to avoid completely embarrassing themselves.

While this is *only* an early June series, the next four evenings at Dodger Stadium can give us a good glimpse at what to expect in the NL playoff race this October.

Thursday, June 2, 2022: RHP Taijuan Walker (3-0, 2.83 ERA) vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin (5-0, 1.80 ERA) 

Outside of allowing six runs in four innings against the Phillies in early May, Taijuan Walker has been one of the best starters in all of baseball. Since that disappointing outing on May 5, Walker is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.88 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 24 innings pitched. He has thrown four consecutive quality starts, his latest being a six-hit, two-run performance in six innings against the Phillies. While his strikeout totals have been low all season, he tallied a season-high six K’s earlier this month in a dominant win in Colorado.

Tony Gonsolin, the fourth-year Dodger out of Saint Mary’s College, has emerged as perhaps the newest ace of this staff, with Kershaw on the IL and Urías struggling more than usual. Gonsolin had one of the best months of May of any starter in baseball, posting a 4-1 record with a 1.93 ERA, .180 BAbip, and 31 strikeouts. He’s yet to pitch beyond six innings in any game this season but has still thrown five consecutive quality starts. He most recently allowed two runs in six innings against Arizona, picking up his fifth win of the season. Of note, Gonsolin has struck out exactly seven batters in each of his last three starts, which marks a season-high for K’s ina. game.

Friday, June 3, 2022: RHP Chris Bassitt (4-2, 3.66 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (6-0, 2.90 ERA)

Chris Bassitt has had a very interesting track record this season, seemingly alternating between dominant games allowing but sometimes getting lit up as well for more than a handful of runs. The perfect example of this was over Bassitt’s final two starts in May. After allowing eight hits, three walks, and eight runs – including three home runs – in just 4 1/3 innings in San Francisco, he bounced back to allow just one run over six innings in his next start against the Phillies.

Tyler Anderson is another example of a dominant pitcher who has looked like one of baseball’s best arms all season, outside of one rough start. Over his last two starts against the Nationals and Diamondbacks, respectively, Anderson has pitched 14 shutout frames, allowing ten hits, just one walk, and striking out 14 batters. After beginning the season in a relief role and not pitching more than five innings all of April, Anderson surpassed the five-inning mark four out of his five May starts. The one glaring blemish on his 2022 resume is allowing 10 hits and seven runs in six innings against the Phillies, a game in which he also allowed two home runs.

Saturday, June 4, 2022: LHP David Peterson (2-0, 3.03 ERA) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (6-1, 3.22 ERA)

David Peterson only found himself in the Mets starting rotation after the slew of injuries that hampered the team, yet has succeeded more than anyone could have imagined before this season began in his new role. In his last two starts, Peterson kept the opposing bats in check just enough to give the Mets more than enough wiggle room. In those two starts, the Mets scored 13 runs in each game, taking a lot of pressure off the third-year pitcher. Despite his lackluster 5.17 in May, he’s been invaluable to a team in desperate need of starting pitching. In April, Peterson was even better, with a ridiculous 0.64 ERA in 14 innings combined as a starter and reliever.

Walker Buehler, who has two top-10 NL Cy Young award finishes since 2019, had a rough end of May. After beginning the month by allowing just one run across 12 innings over two starts, Buehler has a 5.32 ERA over his last four starts. In two of those starts, he allowed four or more runs, a rarity for one of the best pitchers in the league today. But we’ve also seen this season the sheer dominance that Buehler can display on any given evening. On April 25 in Phoenix, Buehler tossed a complete game shutout, allowing three hits, no walks, and striking out 10 batters in what may go down as one of the best pitched games of the entire 2022 MLB season.

Sunday, June 5, 2022: RHP Trevor Williams (1-3, 3.58 ERA) vs. LHP Julio Urías (3-5, 2.89 ERA) 

Pitching as both a spot starter and a long reliever, Trevor Williams has been one of the unsung heroes of the 2022 Mets season thus far. Thrust into the rotation (along with Peterson) due to the aforementioned injuries of other starters, Williams has taken this new opportunity and run with it. Over his last five appearances in May (three starts), Williams had a 1.77 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings pitched. In his last start, against the Nationals on May 31, Williams pitched his best game all year, tossing five shutout frames to pick up his first victory of the season. Earlier in May, Williams pitched another four shutout innings against the Cardinals, also as a starter.

Julio Urías, who finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting last season, has had a most ace-like season – with three starts allowing no runs in at least five innings – but on the flip side, he’s hit a *bit* for a wall in May, posting a 3.91 ERA over his last four starts. The worst of the damage was allowing eight hits and five runs over six innings in a loss to the Phillies. Now to most starters, this recent rough patch wouldn’t be a cause for concern the numbers are still well above-average – but for a pitcher of Urías’ caliber, fans expect greatness every fifth day. He most recently allowed four runs (including two home runs) in six innings, this time another loss at the hands of the Pirates. Now facing a relentless Mets lineup, Urías could be in for another lackluster start.

Prediction 

After a setback against Pittsburgh, the Dodgers will be more motivated than ever for a bounceback series. After all, they still have the best lineup in baseball and own the NL’s second-best record. But that being said, the Mets are rolling into LA hot, winners of six straight with no signs of slowing down.

The Dodgers likely have the starting pitching advantage in all four games of this series. Momentum is clearly on the Mets side though, and because of that, I’m expecting each team to win two games in this four-game series.

If the Mets can leave LA with a series split, they should feel really good. Another test then awaits in San Diego, and THEN in Anaheim, so the schedule is not getting much easier, if at all.