MMO Trade Profile: Juan Soto, RF

Position: RF
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 10/25/1998 (23)

Traditional Stats: 91 G, 78 H, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .250/405/.497
Advanced Stats: 3.4 WAR, .391 wOBA, 152 wRC+

Rundown

In just a few short years, 23-year-old Juan Soto has already made himself known as one of the premier hitters in the major leagues. Taking the league by storm in 2018, Soto slashed .292/.406/.517 with 79 walks, 22 home runs, and 70 RBI in 414 at-bats. He finished second in voting for NL Rookie of the Year to Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. that season. In 2019, his .282/.401/.548 slash line along with 34 home runs and 110 RBI helped propel the Washington Nationals to their first-ever World Series title. His .351 batting average in 2020 won the batting title and add in two All-Star appearances, a Home Run Derby championship, and two Silver Slugger awards to his name, Juan Soto is one of the elite at only 23 years old.

On the traditional stat line, since his call-up in 2018, Soto has amassed a total of 118 home runs with a career .293 batting average to date. Adding to that, he’s driven in a total of 355 RBI, scored 394 runs, and boasts an OBP of .427 and a slugging percentage of .541. Delving into more of the advanced stats, Soto shines in those categories as well with a career 21.4 WAR, .407 wOBA, 155 wRC+, and an excellent OPS+ of 160.

Regarded as being one of the more disciplined hitters today, Soto has an above-average K% rate at around 16.9 percent as well as showcasing an excellent BB% which comes in at 18.9 percent. To add to that discipline, Soto swings at 63.2 percent of balls in the strike zone, and his contact rate of those pitches dials up to about 83 percent. On pitches out of the strike zone, Soto swings at about 20 percent while making contact with about 66 percent of those same pitches.

What does this tell us about the player? During an at-bat, Soto has a very natural and composed approach at the plate. His swing is quick and takes short approaches to pitches, generating lots of power to the gaps going the other way along with some elevation. Soto shows elite hitting skills with elite read-and-react times to the ball as well as demonstrating great hand-eye coordination while adjusting to breaking pitches away from fastballs. This leads to lots of hard contact and a high walk rate.  As an outfielder, Soto is known as a solid defender but has struggled this year to the tune of -8 outs above average in right field after being 3 outs above average in his career coming into 2022.

Package

Any club possessing a player like Juan Soto would want to ideally keep him around long term, but after rejecting a 15-year, $440 million contract offer, the Washington Nationals have decided to entertain trade offers for their superstar player. The team has made it known that they are only willing to move Soto if the trade can impact them in the short-term as well as the long term, which means a major league ready player, or two, along with a few of a team’s top prospects. The Nats would also prefer a club would take on the contract of pitcher Patrick Corbin in a potential trade.

The Mets have emerged as one of the clubs who are interested in striking a deal, as they boast the financial flexibility to not only sign Soto long-term after a potential deal but afford to take on the Corbin contract and throw in the necessary prospects to complete a deal. Any deal regarding Soto would more than likely begin with the Mets’ top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez. Although the Mets have made it known that Alvarez is untouchable, one would have to assume that he would be available in a trade for a player of Soto’s caliber and would be the headliner going the other way. New York would then have to more than likely depart with other top prospects such as infielder Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and outfielder Alex Ramirez.

In regards to a major-league player, reports have stated that Washington might lower that demand if a team takes on the contract of Patrick Corbin, but if any players were to head the other way, names like Jeff McNeil, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and J.D. Davis have been thrown around as possible names going in a deal. This is a unique situation where both Washington and the team that ends up trading for him can both benefit in the short-term and long-term. The team that acquires Soto will have control of his rights until 2025 when he will only be around his age 26 season and more than likely will try to sign him to a long-term deal.

Thoughts

Bringing a player like Juan Soto will change the direction of any franchise that brings him into the fold. The Mets would be a perfect fit for Soto, as he would be the one to put over the edge of an already superb lineup. The cost of bringing him in would be substantial and in the Mets case, more prospect heavy but team owner Steve Cohen has made it known that he is ready to do whatever it takes to bring a championship back to Queens, even if it means giving up a few pieces of the future for Soto. This is a deal the Mets should make, as it would continue to signal a change in the direction has been taking since the new regime has taken over.

Juan Soto turns the Mets from potential division winners to front-of-the-line World Series contenders.