Hey MMO readers, let’s open some reader mail! What’s that? There’s no reader mail? Well then it’s time for the first of what I’m going to call my “self-mailbags,” where I address the questions that have been weighing on the minds of some very important Mets fans in my life: Me, Myself and I. And while the Mets community is abuzz with our newly minted acquisition of an elite closer and an all-time great second baseman, my first attempt at his exercise takes us to the outfield:

The Question: Should the Mets Replace Lagares With Hamilton?

I’m not the first person in the MMO community to wonder about whether Billy Hamilton might fit on the Mets. John Edwards posted an article the other day when the Reds non-tendered their electric outfielder. But John was wondering about adding Hamilton to compliment Juan Lagares as Lagares’ backup. For some of the reasons mentioned in John’s article and by many of you in the comments, I’m not so sure that’s the best use of a roster spot (although I still think it would be worth it if Hamilton would be cheap). Rather, I’m wondering whether the Mets should trade Lagares, and then add Hamilton.

Let’s get this out of the way: I know that Billy Hamilton is a terrible hitter. If he’s in your starting lineup, one-ninth of your at-bats are going to one of the league’s worst batsmen (and, for an NL team like the Mets, another is going to the pitcher). Hamilton is in the Major Leagues for his elite defense­––– a selling point he shares with Lagares–­–­– and his blink-and-you’ll-miss-him speed.

But I think this move could make a lot of sense for the Mets. Here are some reasons why:

1. Hamilton’s bat makes it hard to start him, but Lagares shouldn’t be seen as a starter either.

 All the talk of how Hamilton’s bat is too weak to justify putting him in the starting lineup glosses over one important, harsh reality: The Mets can’t, shouldn’t, and (I believe) don’t plan on relying on Juan Lagares to be their everyday starting center fielder. So when evaluating a move to replace Juan with Hamilton, we should not grade Hamilton as a starter. Why can’t we rely on Lagares, the 2014 Gold Glove winner at the position, to start in center field day in and day out? Well, that brings us to our second reality, one that has been the elephant in the room for most of Juan’s career:

2. Lagares can’t stay on the field.

Lagares is a good player. He is elite defensively and has pretty good speed. His bat isn’t great, or even good but he has shown flashes at the plate, is somewhat half-decent against lefties, and the guy hit .339 last season. He and Hamilton both boost an elite glove, and while Lagares doesn’t have Hamilton’s blazing speed (making his fielding prowess more impressive), Lagares has the better bat. But despite that better bat, and that beautiful .339 average in 2018, Juan had fewer hits the past three seasons combined than Hamilton had in 2018 alone. Why? Because Lagares has played just 203 games during that span (and just 30 last year), while Hamilton has played in 411.

I mentioned that Lagares manages to play at an elite level in the field despite a lack of elite speed, and that’s because he goes all-out on every play. Lagares’ determination to catch any ball that goes in the air is admirable and makes him one of the team’s most exciting players, but it also lands him on the trainer’s table infuriatingly often.

If Lagares toned it down on defense, he wouldn’t be Juan Lagares, and he wouldn’t have as much value. But if he keeps being himself, the odds of him being on the disabled list are higher than the odds of him being on the field, and that’s why the Mets would be wise to— and, according to recent reports, appear to be looking to— add another outfielder to start in between Michael Conforto in left field and Brandon Nimmo in right (if Yoenis Cespedes comes back and stays healthy, that’s a bridge we’d all very happily cross when we come to it). This would make Lagares a fourth outfielder, and late-inning defensive replacement. Juan would be good for that role, but if we admit he and the team are best off when he comes off the bench, that brings us to our next point:

3. As a 4th outfielder, Hamilton is a better value and a better fit for the Mets than Lagares

Lagares will make $9 million this coming season and has a $9.5 million option for 2020 that comes with $500K buyout. He might be good enough to be a starting center fielder (and I think “might” is a fair word, weighing his glove against his bat), but he can’t be relied on as a starter, which will require the Mets to seek an external option in the outfield. And if Lagares is slotted in as the fourth outfielder, $9M for a bench player best used as a defensive replacement is, if not an overpay, a luxury in which a team with the Mets’ well-documented payroll “issues” (a word I use to avoid picking between “constraints” and “choices”) should not indulge.

That $9M would be much better spent towards a catcher, a true 3rd starting OF (ideally one who can patrol center field), a high-end reliever to pair with Edwin Diaz in what is still a very weak bullpen, or even a starter to either provide depth behind (or in place of) the likes of Jason Vargas or replace Noah Syndergaard should the Mets deal “Thor” for what would certainly be a massive haul that would plug at least one of the aforementioned gaps in the roster.

Meanwhile, Hamilton, for a price of what I would assume to be around $2-4M this year, would provide a similarly phenomenal glove to be used as a late-inning replacement, while adding the incredible speed for which he is best known. As a Minor League in 2012, Hamilton stole 155 bases in 132 games. While he “only” swiped 34 bags for the Reds in 2018 (Amed Rosario led the Mets with 24), Hamilton had 59 steals in 2017 (the Mets had 58 as a team that year), 58 in 2016, 57 in 2015, and 56 in 2014. And while rarely getting on base is hardly something to brag about, it makes Hamilton’s stolen base numbers even more striking. Hamilton’s speed (which would also help cover for Nimmo and Conforto, and especially Cespedes, in the corners when used in center) also makes him a weapon off the bench in a way Lagares is not.

Hamilton can be used as a mercenary pinch-runner in late-inning, high-leverage situations, a skill which Terrance Gore, a far worse hitter, has used to single-handedly justify his roster spot for his entire career (Gore has 1 career hit, but has been on the 25-man roster for three playoff teams because of his ability to produce on the basepaths).

Lagares is a better hitter than Hamilton, but we’re not exactly comparing Mike Trout and Brad Emaus here. Hamilton has a career slash line of .245/.298/.333, while Lagares’ is .260/.300/.367. Hamilton’s lack of power is obvious (he has 20 career home runs; Sammy Sosa hit 20 in June of 1998), the elite speed means that a single from Hamilton is worth a bit more than his slugging percentage would reflect. So, especially in a bench role which would reduce the importance of their respective bats, I think the factors I have discussed make Hamilton’s tools (and his price) a better fit for the fourth outfielder spot in which I think the Mets would, without Hamilton, be smart to use Lagares.

One “if” I’ve ignored thus far is whether the Mets could move Juan Lagares before signing Hamilton, but I think that’s, at most, a medium-sized “if.” Lagares could have value to a team with less depth in the outfield (when Cespedes is healthy, the Mets have three very solid outfielders and even without Yoenis, two is nothing to sneeze at), less range in the corners, more faith in their training staff, a determination to improve their defense (and an aversion to Hamilton like the one Cincinnati showed by non-tendering him), and/or more room in their budget to pay a guy like Lagares a $9M salary.

Maybe it’s a team with a big budget who doesn’t mind having Juan on the bench or the DL even if he’s not making chump change. Maybe it’s a team with few current payroll commitments, but one not looking to shell out longer years and more money for a high-end free agent (or not confident in their ability to get that free agent to move to their city). Maybe the Mets only get a “lottery ticket” prospect in return, or maybe they have to eat $1-2 M of Lagares’ salary to make a deal (in which case they might get some more talent back). But I think Lagares is a movable contract, and I think, for the reasons I’ve discussed here, that the team might be better off sending him on his way and bringing in Hamilton as a replacement— one who will spend most of his time on the bench.

Now, people who know me know I’m a huge Lagares fan. I own his jersey and include it regularly in my rotation. I make some serious noise when he’s at the plate (although the best time to cheer for Juan is probably when the other team is hitting). One of my social media usernames used to be a pun on his name. After I pose this question, I expect at least three people to contact me to make sure I haven’t had my identity stolen. But as much as I like Juan, I can’t help but thinking this move might make sense. And if the Mets add another starting outfielder first, the move would feel more like replacing Lagares with someone like A.J. Pollock… and then replacing Austin Jackson with Hamilton. And in that case, I’d have to say, “Sign me up!”

My Verdict: Yes, the Mets should replace Lagares with Hamilton.

Mets fans, what do you think? If Brodie Van Wagenen has a GM on Line 1 offering to take Juan Lagares, and Billy Hamilton’s agent on Line 2 offering to sign for cheap, should he pull both triggers?

The post Mets Matters: Should Mets Replace Lagares with Billy Hamilton? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Yoenis Céspedes, OF

Player Data: Age: 31, B/T: R/R, Free Agency: 2021

2018 Salary: $29 million

2017 Primary Stats: .292/.352/.540, 17 HR, 42 RBI, 17 2B, 291 AB, 2.1 WAR

Grade: B-

2017 Review:

The problem wasn’t talent, but the ability of that talent to stay on the field.

That line describes the 2017 New York Mets as a whole, but applies particularly well to their best player. Yoenis Cespedes played very well in 2017. He had a very nice slash line, and if you take his counting stats and multiply them over, say, 150 games or, say,  550 plate appearances, you have a very nice season indeed, one certainly worthy of the big money “La Potencia” rakes in.

The problem, of course, is that Yoenis Céspedes only played 81 games (76 starts) in a 162-game season that many expected to extend at least into game 163. The slugger only stepped to the dish 321 times. When your best player misses half the season, your team is in hot water, albeit with a chance to stay afloat. When nearly all of your other talented players miss significant time as well… well, we all saw what happens then.

But we can’t grade Céspedes as a microcosm of an F-grade season for the team. We have to grade him on his own merits. That means factoring the quality of his play, the quantity of that quality and, of course, his expectations and role. I’ll take 17 home runs from Travis d’Arnaud or Wilmer Flores. I’ll jump for joy if we get 17 home runs from TJ Rivera. But I need more than 17 home runs from Yoenis Céspedes. I need twice that, really.

Now, when Céspedes was on the field, he didn’t disappoint. He homered in 5.3% of his plate appearances, almost exactly on par with his 5.7% rate a year ago. His slash line of .292/.352/.540 was slightly better than the .280/.354/.530 line he posted in 2016. He started hot, he finished VERY hot, and he was fairly consistent, struggling in July but otherwise being very productive when he was on the field.

But while Céspedes had a bat we could all rely on, his body was anything but reliable. His legs in particular were a major problem. He was often absent, and often hampered when present (either by a nagging injury he was playing through or by his own instincts to “play it safe”).

Céspedes has the skills and athleticism of a five-tool player, but his body refused to cooperate, forcing him to avoid running hard, sliding, or diving for most of his time on the field. And while that cautious style of play may have been frustrating to watch, it was validated in far more frustrating fashion; seemingly every time Céspedes DID hit the ground to make a catch or beat a tag, he would come up lame.

Céspedes went down at the end of April and didn’t resurface until the second week of June. With a somewhat reduced workload, he managed to stay on the field a good amount, but hit a slump at the end of the first half. Always a force down the stretch, the slugger caught fire in August with seven homers, five doubles and a .325/.411/.662 slash line in 23 games. But once again, a hot streak was followed by an injury, and he was shut down after exiting a game in the first inning on August 25.

In the end, Céspedes brought a potent bat that often produced and still provided a presence when he was struggling. His defense continued to decline, but that was in some part due to his physical ailments. Céspedes is a very good player, and he showed it in 2017. But he wasn’t on the field enough, and when you’re grading a team’s best player, you have to grade on a curve. The Mets needed more from Céspedes in 2017 and, as was the case with most of their other top players, they didn’t get it.

Did You Know?

With his three home runs on April 11 in Philadelphia, Yoenis Céspedes became the first Met ever with two three-homer games.

2018 Outlook:

If Céspedes is on the team, and healthy, he will be penciled in somewhere in the heart of the order. As for whether we can expect him in the lineup in 2018, it’s anybody’s guess. Can the Mets count on him to stay healthy? They probably can’t rely on that, but they don’t really have any choice.

If Céspedes does indeed stay on the field, which could happen through a better offseason training regimen, a more cautious approach during the season and, of course, some luck, we know what he’ll bring to the table: A terrifying bat which will range from good to outrageously good, an absolute cannon of an arm, and a flair for the dramatic.

The post 2017 Mets Report Card: Yoenis Céspedes, OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets (7-4) lost to the Miami Marlins (5-5) by a score of 3-2 on Friday night in South Beach.

Noah Syndergaard pitched for New York and, while not his usual dominant self, was quite good. Thor allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits in 6 innings, walking none and striking out 4. Syndergaard threw just 87 pitches, but slowed down late in his start and was removed well before his pitch limit after the blister he suffered on Opening Day seemed to flare up. With the one earned run allowed, Thor’s ERA ballooned to 0.95 on the season.

Update: It was apparently a fingernail issue for Syndergaard. I believe it was the same finger. Joe and the team will keep us all updated with further posts!

The game got off to a rough start for the Mets, as Marlins pitcher Edinson Volquez cruised through the top of the first and Syndergaard ran into trouble in the home half. Dee Gordon singled to lead off the frame, and a throwing error from Asdrubal Cabrera put runners on second and third with none out. Thor righted himself, however, and managed to get out of the inning with just one run allowed on a sacrifice fly from Christian Yelich.

Volquez lost his command in the second inning, but the Mets left the bases loaded when a hard liner from Rene Rivera found a glove in left. They again loaded the bases in the third, and with the green light to swing on 3-0, Michael Conforto made solid contact for a sacrifice fly that tied the game. But the Mets could not cash in further, as Wilmer Flores grounded out to end the inning.

New York took the lead in the fifth on a monster home run from Lucas Duda, but Syndergaard started to struggle in the bottom of the inning. A pair of singles set the table with one out, and a lucky blooper from Dee Gordon tied the game. Thor also had to battle a bit in the sixth as he struggled with his command, but finished the frame with the game tied.

The Mets, meanwhile, slowed down on offense as the game progressed. Jose Reyes drew a walk leading off the sixth against Miami reliever Jarlin Garcia, who was making his MLB debut, and moved to third when Thor laid down a good bunt with the speedy third baseman running on the play. But Rivera struck out and Granderson popped up to strand Jose at third.

In the seventh, it was the Mets doing the heavy lifting to keep the game tied. After Kyle Barraclough breezed through the top half, Rafael Montero came in to relieve the blister-ridden Syndergaard in the home half, and struggled once again. A pair of singles set Miami up with one out, and with a 3-2 count to JT Realmuto, Terry Collins called for an intentional walk to load the bases before bringing in Jerry Blevins. Blevins got Yelich to fly out to fairly deep left field, and with Miguel Rojas sprinting home, Michael Conforto unleashed a perfect throw to the plate, where Rivera tagged Rojas out on a close play that was upheld after video review.

The Mets almost did some damage against David Phelps for the second straight night, but this time could not cash in any runs in the eighth. Reyes and Rivera singled, but the former Yankee worked out of the jam before Josh Edgin scraped through the eighth for the visitors in the bottom half.

In the ninth, the Mets got the go-ahead run on base when Jay Bruce worked a walk against AJ Ramos, but Duda grounded into a double-play to send it to the bottom of the ninth and put the Mets behind the eight-ball. Edgin issued a leadoff walk to Rojas, and after getting two outs and getting to two strikes on Realmuto, the Miami catcher drove one into the right-field gap on a 3-2 pitch. With Rojas running on the play, the winning run easily scored for the Fish, ending the Mets’ five-game winning streak.

After a 16-inning marathon last night, the Mets needed a long outing from Syndergaard tonight to preserve the bullpen. Thor looked like he could answer the call, especially after he worked through a rough first inning. But he faltered in the fifth and sixth, and then exited with the blister. I noted to myself when he first started to stumble that the blister could be the cause— it’s not like him to look so flat and inaccurate with his secondary stuff— so I wasn’t surprised when he left. Still, the fact that he can keep good lineups in check without his best stuff just shows how incredible he is. All Miami managed was that unearned run early and the RBI blooper from Gordon in the fifth. And when things looked like they might go off the rails, Noah reared back and blew one past Yelich at 100 miles per hour. Who needs secondary stuff when you can do that?

But the blister situation isn’t ideal. Tonight was unique in that the Mets were resting several relievers, but they still can’t go through the season wondering if this recurring blister will blindside them at some point in the game, be it early or late. If having Thor skip a start and get 8 or 9 days off before he takes the mound again would help that blister heal fully (it clearly didn’t the first time), I would consider that. Give Gilmartin a start. Or give Montero one last chance as a starting pitcher.

Update: Apparently it was a fingernail issue on the same finger. That’s either really weird and bad luck, or just an extension of some issue with that finger. Either way, Noah didn’t seem concerned at all, joking that he now has an excuse to get a mani-pedi.

And I mean “one last chance,” because Montero has been so, so disappointing as a major league pitcher. He doesn’t throw strikes, which doesn’t add up when you look at what he did in the minors (and even in the spring). He doesn’t seem to trust his stuff. And his stuff isn’t elite like Thor’s, so he can’t rear back and throw triple-digit heat when he’s in trouble. Maybe he can still become a useful reliever or a decent fifth starter, but he’s running out of chances to show that. I’m also not very high on Edgin. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, and he doesn’t have great control. He also doesn’t take the best approach at times.

Blevins, however, has been terrific once again this season. He is never fazed by the pressure. I was baffled by Terry’s decision to have Montero intentionally walk a hitter with a 3-2 count rather than trying to get him to chase a pitch out of the zone, but Blevins came in and got ahead of an elite hitter before Conforto made the play of the night to keep the game even.

Conforto’s defensive gem, his base-hit, and his RBI sacrifice fly added up for another very nice game from the young outfielder. He’s really making a strong case for everyday playing time, and putting Curtis Granderson on the bench until he, Bruce, or Yoenis Cespedes cools off might be the right move.

Bruce had another nice day with a hit and a walk, and Duda walked twice to go along with a hit and the absolute bomb he hit to dead-center. If one of those guys is hitting the Mets are in good shape. If both of them are hitting? Good luck getting through this lineup, especially when several key guys (Cespedes, Neil Walker, Travis d’Arnaud) aren’t getting days off.

Rene Rivera has been good this season, and he continued his strong play with a 2-for-4 performance in this one. Obviously, his hits could have been better-timed, as he twice stranded runners in scoring position, but he’s here for his defense, so anything he can provide with the bat is just gravy. Travis d’Arnaud is hitting like an everyday catcher, so Rivera doesn’t need to do too much to thrive in his role as backup catcher and personal assistant to Noah Syndergaard.

A win tonight would have obviously been nice, but at least the Mets were able to give some guys a rest and avoid another marathon game— it certainly looked like we might see the team play deep into the night once again. Hopefully one of our other long-haired aces gets the team back to its winning ways in game three of this four-game set.

Up Next: Jacob deGrom will face Adam Conley when the Mets take on the Marlins on Saturday night at 7:10 in Miami.

The post Mets’ Winning Streak Snapped as Marlins Walk It Off in the Ninth appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets (2-1) took the rubber game of their season-opening series with the Atlanta Braves (1-2), winning 6-2 on Thursday night at Citi Field in Gotham.

Matt Harvey pitched for the Mets and was as good as anybody could have asked him to be in his first big league start since undergoing Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery last summer. Harvey pitched 6.2 innings of three-hit ball, striking out four and walking none while allowing two runs on a pair of Matt Kemp home runs. “The Dark Knight” threw 77 pitches, 55 for strikes, while sitting around 94-96 MPH with his fastball and living comfortably in the high-80’s with his slider en route to his first win of the season and the 30th of his career.

With the afternoon rain subsiding in time for the game, Mets fans didn’t have to wait to see Harvey take the mound in the top of the first inning, but they didn’t get to see him there for long as the righty got through the top of the order in just six pitches. Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia got through a quick first inning of his own thanks to a diving catch from Nick Markakis to rob Jose Reyes and a ballpark that was just big enough to contain a deep drive from Yoenis Cespedes.

A double play in the second inning helped Harvey work around a Markakis single for another quick inning, and Garcia induced a ground ball of his own in the bottom half to erase Curtis Granderson. Both pitchers continued to keep the opposing hitters in check through the early innings, with Garcia working around a Cespedes double in the fourth to keep things scoreless.

The fifth inning, Harvey’s nemesis last season, got off to an ominous start for the New York pitcher when Matt Kemp crushed a solo shot to center leading off the frame. But rather than crumble as he did on so many occasions last season, Harvey struck out the next hitter and got a couple grounders to avoid further damage.

The Mets picked Harvey right back up in the bottom of the fifth, turning the game around on a Neil Walker single, a Jay Bruce walk, and a two-run double from Travis d’Arnaud that gave the hosts a 2-1 advantage. Pitching with the lead for the first time, Harvey tossed a clean top of the sixth and saw that lead grow in the home half when Garcia walked Cespedes and Wilmer Flores made him pay with a rocket to left that cleared the wall and stayed just inside the foul pole to put New York up 4-1. Walker doubled later in the inning for his second hit of the night, but the team was unable to cash in further.

After striking out Dansby Swanson and Freddie Freeman to begin the seventh, Harvey, still throwing hard and sitting at just 75 pitches, looked like he might go all night. In reality, he had just two more pitches, as Matt Kemp’s second bomb of the night and Terry Collins‘ quick hook combined to end Harvey’s night after 6.2 very encouraging innings.

After Jerry Blevins got a strikeout to close the top of the seventh, he Mets again responded to an Atlanta run with two of their own after the stretch. After reliever Chaz Roe hit Michael Conforto with a pitch, Reyes, perhaps in retaliation, sent one right back up the box for his first hit of the season. Asdrubal Cabrera singled to make it 5-2 and an error from Swanson on a Cespedes grounder allowed Reyes to score the sixth run of the night for New York.

Fernando Salas came in to pitch the top of the eighth for the Mets, and after a solid single, a cheap hit and then a slight misplay from Cabrera (ruled a single for Ender Inciarte) loaded the bases and brought the tying run to the plate, Salas fanned Swanson to retire the side and keep the Mets comfortably in front. Addison Reed pitched a much quicker ninth in relief of Salas, getting Atlanta 1-2-3 to seal the win.

Just about every Mets fan out there was nervous for tonight, and for good reason. Last season, Matt Harvey looked like an absolute shell of the pitcher we had come to know, and for no apparent reason. That mystery was solved with another mystery, as the Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnosis meant that Harvey would have to face a second major surgery and one that, unlike his Tommy John procedure, presented no clear, established road back for a flamethrower like him. This spring, Harvey showed some positive signs, but certainly wasn’t convincing, and heading into tonight’s start, nobody knew what to expect.

But when the game started, Matt Harvey looked like Matt Harvey. The real Matt Harvey. The no-flab, no-beard, all-business Matt Harvey, going after hitters, trusting his stuff, and finally having stuff he should trust. Mid-90s on the straight fastball, equally fast with the two-seamer, 88, 89 and even touching the 90’s with the slider— all with command. That Matt Harvey. And with the changeup being mixed in and the (very, perhaps unusually so) rare curveball in the arsenal as well, Atlanta’s hitters had no answers for the real Matt Harvey… aside from a slow, gimpy outfielder who, at least with the bat, looks like he might return to being the real Matt Kemp.

Is Harvey back to being a guaranteed ace every time he takes the hill? Of course not. It was one start, and there are a lot of factors that can’t go unmentioned. The Braves are a bad team with a weak lineup. Harvey, who struggled when he got to the middle innings last year, didn’t get his pitch count much past the point where he would normally be through four or five innings, and when he did get to that point, his night ended shortly thereafter with Kemp’s blast. He’s still not throwing as hard as he did in 2015 (and certainly not as hard as he did in 2013). He had more rest before this start than he will going forward. He wasn’t missing many bats (which would be a better indicator of future success, although I do think there is something to be said for pitching to weak contact and keeping pitch counts down), and didn’t avoid the home run ball that has plagued him since last season. So we can’t get ahead of ourselves and feel certain that he will dominate in his next start, and the ones beyond that.

But there’s not much more he could have done tonight to make Mets fans optimistic that the ace they once knew might be on his way back— while pitching as the #3 starter in what could be the best rotation in baseball. And remember, Dan Warthen doesn’t expect Harvey to have his best stuff until May. It might just be the third game of the season, but it’s a good day to be a Mets fan.

The only thing that really made Harvey not look like his old self was that the Mets actually got him some run support in this game. And with the Mets down by a run, the biggest hit came from a guy who has been scrutinized nearly as much as Harvey in Travis d’Arnaud. The catcher came up big with a two-run double that put the Mets in front. After Jay Bruce’s big game the previous night, seeing the two other guys with the most to prove this season step up in this game was encouraging.

The Mets only scored in two of their first 25 innings this year, so it was nice to see the team put together multiple productive innings in this one. Wilmer Flores showed why he’s going to be in the lineup against lefties this season, and a couple other guys had good nights as well. Cespedes has hit several balls to the track already this season; the home runs are coming.

It’s always nice to win a series, especially the first of the season. On to the next one.

Up Next: Mets righty Zack Wheeler and Marlins southpaw Wei-Yin Chen will make their season debuts on Friday night at Citi Field when Miami comes to town for a three-game series.

The post MMO Game Recap: Harvey Makes Triumphant Return as Mets Take Series from Braves appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Hey MMO Community, it’s been awhile. We’ve reached early February, which means a few things. It means we’ve reached the point in the season where my excitement for Knicks Basketball turns into disgust and depression.

On the bright side, it also means we’ve reached the point where I start getting geared up for some baseball. More specifically, it means we’ve reached the point where Keith Law, a lead baseball analyst for ESPN.com and one of the top player evaluation experts in the industry, has released his MLB Top 100 Prospect Rankings as well as his team-by-team rankings and positional rankings.

For the past two years, Keith’s been kind enough to give me and MMO an exclusive interview to discuss his rankings and evaluations with us as it pertains to the Mets, and he was generous enough to do so again this year. Keith gave me about 30 minutes of his time despite us only being scheduled for 15, and he didn’t even ask me to promote his book (although I threw a question in there at the end out of genuine interest).

I want to give a big shoutout to Keith, and invite you to check out what we discussed, including: Amed Rosario, Dom Smith and other key Mets  prospects, the MLB aces and guys like Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, Matt Harvey’s future, the outfield logjam and Michael Conforto in particular, the infield and some surprising thoughts on Asdrubal Cabrera, the situation behind the plate with Travis d’Arnaud, and, of course, an outlook for the fast-approaching 2017 season. Without further ado…

Tommy Rothman, MetsMerized Online:  Hey Keith, thanks so much for doing this again this year. So first of all, you just released your top 100 rankings, and your team-by-team rankings, and positional lists. Obviously guys like Amed Rosario (#3) and Dominic Smith (#29) have been there before, and nobody was surprised to see them. But there are some other guys on the list who are newer to the farm system, including guys we just drafted, so I want to talk about them as well.

I guess we’ll start with Rosario and Smith. Rosario, I know you’ve been high on him for years, and the rest of the prospect-scouting world is kind of catching up to that a bit, he was also 5th on the MLB.com list. And then Smith, I think you actually had in the exact same slot as last year. Regarding Rosario, is this ranking a reflection that you’re higher on him than you were, or just that he’s closer to being ready?

Keith Law, ESPN: He’s closer to being ready. He’s continued to meet and exceed expectations for his age. Also with young shortstops, with a guy like that, I want to be sure the body’s gonna stay there too. Sometimes they just get bigger than you expect, and I’m not worried about that with him. I mean, he’s gonna be a big shortstop, there’s a lot of big shortstops, but he’s certainly not too big at this point. And he’s always had the physical skills, the raw tools to be a good defensive shortstop. But I feel a lot better about that now than I did a year ago.

Tommy: And then with Smith, I know for awhile the knock on him was that he did everything right, he had a great swing, but he didn’t hit home runs. But this year the power started to pop up. So what goes into his ranking staying the same? Is that a reflection that he’s gotten a year older and not necessarily advanced enough, or…

Keith: I mean there’s no negative to it, certainly. He stayed the same, I think a few guys passed him, maybe some guys who had explosive seasons. But there’s nothing different about him, there was nothing wrong with his year. He got to a neutral ballpark [as opposed to the Mets’ very pitcher-friendly Single A environments] and started to drive the ball more, and I think he’s capable of that.

I remember I saw him in high school, I said, “There’s 70 raw in there” [on the 20-80 grading scale scouts use to rate a player’s tools], and I still believe he’s gonna get to that. But some of this is approach-related too, in that I do think he’s learning still when to go the other way— because he obviously loves to do that— and when to pull the ball, looking for certain pitches, certain locations, in certain counts. It’s the maturation of a hitter, and he came in very young, remember he was 17 when he was drafted.

So I have no concerns, I still think he’s going to be the player that I’ve forecasted him to be since he was drafted. And by having him where he is… I don’t rank 1st base prospects typically very high, I would say him staying in that same range is… he’s still on target. He did what I expected him to do getting out of those two A-ball parks, which I think not only wrecked his power, but if you look at what he did in Savannah, all he did was hit the ball to left field, like “Well I can’t hit them out, I may as well hit singles the other way to left.” Okay, that’s great, you don’t have to do that anymore.

Tommy: Following up on Smith, he’s probably a couple years away, but Lucas Duda‘s contract is expiring this year, and unless the Mets are going to move Michael Conforto or Lucas Duda or David Wright to first, they might have a vacancy at first if they don’t bring back Duda. So do you think if he has a good year they’re going to push up Smith’s timeline and try to have him be the 1st baseman in 2018?

Keith: I think he gets to the Big Leagues this year anyway, so I don’t think it’s changing anything. Obviously if he goes to Triple-A and goes bananas, that might speed things up a bit and we see him in the Big Leagues in June. Conversely if he goes to Triple-A and he sucks—- I really don’t think he’s going to, but it’s possible, and that might change things too. Let’s say he goes to Triple-A and makes the same kind of small improvements we saw him make last year.

Some of what happened last year was him just getting into a better hitting environment, and we got a better picture of the hitter he really is, so let’s say he goes to Triple-A and is a little better. A little more power, still high OBP, still good defense, let’s say he gets up to 20 home runs, or is on pace for 20 home runs, and they say “Alright, we’ll call him up in August,” and try to give him some regular playing-time to ease him in so he can be the 1st baseman next year. I don’t think anybody really wants anymore to… you know when a guy is going to be your everyday player, you don’t want to have Opening Day be his debut in most cases.  So I could certainly understand them saying, “Let’s make sure we give this guy a cup of coffee, he’s gonna be on the 40-man anyway,” that all makes sense to me.

Tommy: And then so with the pitchers, Thomas Szapucki [#60] and Justin Dunn [#84], those are guys where unlike Gsellman, we haven’t seen them in the Majors and they’re more recent to the fans’ attention— and Anthony Kay, but obviously he’s going to be moved back with the Tommy John surgery—- so with those three guys, obviously they’re not in the same tier of prospects as Mets fans might be used to, between Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, but what are you expecting them to offer the Mets? Because last year, the knock was that the Mets had all this elite pitching but didn’t have much depth prospect-wise for pitchers, and it seems like that’s improved…

Keith: Right, I think it’s improved dramatically. I thought the draft was good, I mean Kay getting hurt… UConn blew him out, I have no problem saying that, because I was saying it all Spring, and then sure enough he got hurt. But he’ll be back at some point, Szapucki took a huge step forward last year. I love Dunn, I probably love him even more now after some pro guys got to look at him— obviously he didn’t pitch a whole lot— but just to come back and say, “Hey, this guy’s an unbelievable athlete, how the heck did they get this guy at the 19th pick?” I mean it was… people were feeling like it was tremendous value where they got him.

And Gsellman too, I gotta point out, I was always saying, “He’s a 5th starter, he’s throwing 90-91, he can sink it a little bit, he throws strikes… he’s a Big Leaguer, not very exciting.” But that guy shows up to the Big Leagues, and he’s bumping 95, 96. I even checked with the Mets, they were like “He didn’t throw that hard before.” I was like “Good, at least I didn’t whiff,” I hate that thought, that he comes up throwing 95 and I’m dismissing him. No, he really wasn’t! Just all of a sudden, he found a grade and a half of velocity, and now it’s 95, 96 and he can still sink it and get ground balls and throw a lot of strikes, and when your arm speeds up often your off-speed stuff gets a bit better too. He’s… it’s funny, I can’t think of a comparable in terms of career trajectory like that.

But it’s really fun, I think it’s really exciting, a guy who was totally an afterthought, for me and probably for a lot of people outside the Mets organization, who thought “Gsellman? Yeah, take him in a trade, he’s fine, just a guy,” you know, now he’s known. I don’t even know if they would trade him. I think they’ll use him, I think he’ll probably get his 30 starts in over the course of the season if he stays healthy, and obviously if he shows up throwing 95 in March.

Tommy: Yeah, the guy he reminds me most of in terms of trajectory, is actually the guy he looks like, deGrom—

Keith: Yes!

Tommy: —where you’re like, “OK, he’s an OK player,” and then he gets to the Big Leagues and he’s getting everybody out.

Keith: I remember seeing deGrom’s first Big League start, and I’m sitting there in Bristol in the green room watching the fastball move, and I’m like, “Sh*t!” I mean I had notes from Mets people and nobody told me he could do that, they told me he threw hard and that he had a real breaking ball, and that he was hyper-athletic, I mean everything they said was right, but this guy’s throwing two-seamers at 93 that are going to break bats, that’s a hell of a lot more exciting than I thought he was.

Tommy: And now for Seth Lugo, he was kind of disappointing as a reliever, but when they put him in the starting rotation, he really took off and was important down the stretch. And I know, I’ve read a lot of articles about how his curveball—

Keith: Isn’t it great?

Tommy: —is pretty legendary, but yeah, he’s getting kind of overlooked in the discussion, between Wheeler and Gsellman, for who’s going to be the fifth starter. But there’s Lugo, he could be the fifth starter, he could go to the pen… what are your thoughts on him?

Keith: Well, I wanna talk specifically about that curveball issue. We think that’s good, right? The high spin rate sounds good, it looks good. I have said, and obviously this is part of— I have a book coming out, called Smart Baseball, and I talk about Statcast quite a bit towards the end, because it’s kind of the next big thing— we are still learning what much of this means. And is the fact that he has this extremely high spin rate curveball [the highest ever]… does that make it more effective?

And it looks fine now, obviously, and he’s not… he’s not data, he’s a pitcher, right? You have him already, you may as well roll him out there and see what it’s like. I am not willing to say, “This guy’s got an unbelievable spin rate on his curveball, therefore it’s going to be good.”

If I were the Mets, I would say… first they have to get him throwing it more, part of the problem is he just didn’t throw it that often. And then find a role that allows him maybe to maximize it if it turns out it is that effective. That might still be a bullpen role. That’s probably what he is, but with the caveat that he just hasn’t thrown that curveball that much. Even in the minors, that was just not an emphasis pitch for him. Now maybe he goes to Triple-AAA, starts for awhile, throws 20 breaking balls a game, and it changes the entire pitcher that he is, I mean that would be comparable to Gsellman throwing 95 all of a sudden, and then you sort of have to erase everything you had on him before.

Tommy: So obviously with Thor and deGrom, and then Matz who had that horrible start against the Marlins but was then pitching like an All-Star for a couple months, with each passing year you kind of know you’re going to get great pitching from them. But with Harvey he was concerning last year before the injury [Thoracic Outlet Syndrome] because he was pitching poorly. I know for me it was less concerning after the injury, because it would have been more of an issue if he was pitching horribly with no explanation. But I know TOS is not like Tommy John where it seems like, you go get it, you take a year off, you get back. Here there’s not much of a track record, so I guess… what do you think the Harvey situation is shaping up to be like?

Keith: I don’t know. I really don’t know, because I don’t think we have a ton of comparisons, and obviously we haven’t seen him come back and see what he looks like, does all the old stuff return, is he still able to pitch pain-free, at the same velocity that he was beforehand, I don’t know. I mean, if I were a Mets fan, not that I need to sow concern among Mets fans, you seem to be good at doing that all by yourselves, but you know, I would look at that rotation and say, that’s not the most durable group right now.

And Thor has been durable, but obviously he had the little elbow— what did he call it— inflammation. And Matz is just fragile, he’s great when he’s healthy, but he’s [dealt with ailments] quite a bit over the years, so look, this guy is good when he’s healthy, but his track record of durability is basically non-existent. So if you can set yourselves up to bank on him for 18 starts, and then you’re covered for the rest, and obviously if he gives you more that’s great… that’s fine. But don’t go into the season thinking you’re getting 30 starts out of Steven Matz, because he’s never done it before.

The flip-side is, now with the emergence of Gsellman, the return of Wheeler, maybe you’ve got 7 starters you can mix and match to keep guys healthy, or just to plan ahead, because someone’s gonna break down, someone’s gonna get hurt, now we at least have the inventory here to soak up those innings and not just be handing them to Triple-A cannon-fodder guys.

Tommy: Right, I always tell people when they ask “what are you going to do with the 7 starters,” I say that that’s probably gonna resolve itself unfortunately, you’re not gonna have all 7 healthy all at the same time…

Keith: Right. This was the… when they traded Michael Fulmer, I said “Look, Fulmer’s a really good prospect, you’re getting 2 months of Yoenis Cespedes,” not knowing Cespedes was going to go all Babe Ruth the next couple weeks, right?  But Mets fans kept saying, “We have enough pitching, there’s never gonna be room for him in the rotation.” Well, really? You know, come back at me bro! I’m not hearing from you lately.

You would have plenty of room for Michael Fulmer in your rotation. You can’t have enough of those guys. Doesn’t mean you don’t trade them, you absolutely do, there will come a point where you learn something about them where you say “Alright, well why don’t we give this guy up,” or you certainly say, “We are going to use this pitching depth to upgrade the roster somewhere else,” but accept that there will always come an opportunity where that guy would have pitched for you. There will come a day where the Red Sox will look back and say, “Look, we should have kept Michael Kopech” [instead of trading him for All-Star Chris Sale]. If he stays healthy, they’re gonna look at him the way you guys look at Fulmer right now.

Tommy: And similarly in terms of a logjam in the outfield, obviously if Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares all stay healthy and you have to bench one of them, that’s a good problem to have… I mean the way I look at it, Cespedes is obviously going to play every day, and Bruce and Granderson, they’re not going to sit on the bench, I mean their weaknesses against lefties, Conforto shares, so the way I look at it, I expect it to be Cespedes, Granderson and Bruce, every day, Lagares as a fourth outfielder. And I almost think, if Conforto isn’t going to be playing every day, it might be better to have Nimmo, who kind of is a fourth outfielder, to be that bench outfielder and hopefully have Conforto raking in Triple-AAA and… but yeah, what do you think they will do, and what do you think they should do?

Keith: I think they will do the wrong thing. Collins will do the wrong thing. And I think the front office is doing the wrong thing. Why Terry Collins is being given final say over playing Conforto I have no idea. I think you play Cespedes and Conforto in the outfield every day, and you plan around those two guys. Everything else has to flow from them.

Cespedes obviously, that’s not an issue. But Conforto has to play every day! For me that’s step one. I mean, you know he rakes against right-handers— at least when he’s healthy he does—  and it’s not that he doesn’t hit lefties, he hit lefties in college, he hit lefties OK in the Minors, they just never gave him a chance in the Big Leagues. And he’s never going to learn if you don’t play him. So, you make sure those two guys are getting your everyday at-bats, and you move forward from there.

I agree with what you said on Nimmo, he’d be fine on the bench as a fourth outfielder, he can fill in a bit in center, he can certainly play right, you just don’t want him to face a good lefty. You don’t want him to face many lefties at all, really. That’s the one thing you’d be concerned about, with him as your fourth, but it’s not like they have many options anyway who would be able to fit that, play multiple positions… and you know Lagares can play all three, he’s not going to hit as much. I think with Nimmo, there’s more bat, he’s probably better suited to that job.

Tommy: Well with Conforto, you were always high on him and he was incredible at the start of the year until May… but he only hit .242 against righties last year, and only hit .104 against lefties, so I guess… obviously if he had kept that early production up, no one’s having this discussion about when does he play, where does he play, but because he struggled it does seem like more of a question-mark to play him every day so… what do you think went into that slump, and are you not concerned by it?

Keith: Well he was also hurt at some point after that too, so I’m not sure, I’ll put it this way, I have a feeling, if he’s just getting— oh, the other thing I heard from people in the organization too, they felt the fact that Conforto was not being given opportunities to face lefties really negatively affected his swing, particularly his stance, they felt he wasn’t keeping his front hip closed as well as he should be, I think this is sort of a turn-the-page opportunity, to get him back out there, let him play every day starting in Spring Training, you know… he’s getting 2 at-bats per game at the beginning but he’s facing righties, he’s facing lefties, he’s swinging consistent, he’s fully healthy, and this is all forgotten. But this is one of the better hitting prospects they’ve produced in a while, and if they screw this up, it is to their tremendous detriment as an organization.

Tommy: One other guy whose stock probably fell last year is Travis d’Arnaud. He’s not getting younger, so every year it probably gets a bit more frustrating for Mets fans, but he still does have talent and his good moments… I don’t think you’d still call him a prospect, but how do you evaluate him as a young player at this point?

Keith: Right. Yeah, I mean, look… my issue with him… one year I think I had him ranked in the top 10 overall, I said this is an offensive catcher, he’s good enough in that he can catch and throw, he’s gonna have power and he’s gonna hit, might not have a great on-base percentage, but a catcher with that kind of offensive production is an All-Star. But he hasn’t been healthy since. And now if you look back, kind of all the way back to when he was first drafted by the Phillies, it’s just been one injury after another. He’s had back issues, finger broken, a knee issue, a concussion, I think more than one concussion, I just don’t know if I could ever count on him to stay healthy as a catcher, and I just don’t know if there’s enough offensive production there anywhere else he’s likely to play, which is probably a corner outfield spot, which is the last thing they need at this point.

Tommy:  One thing I think we were all stunned by, because we knew he was at least OK with catching and throwing, was last year his throwing took a huge step back. Did that come out of nowhere for you as well?

Keith: Yeah, it was awful, yeah. I was shocked. I certainly didn’t see that coming. If you told me he’s gonna have trouble throwing or trouble receiving, I’d have said “eh, receiving, it’s probably not a strength.” I thought there was no reason he couldn’t get better at it. But I was absolutely shocked at how bad he was at throwing last year. And it made me wonder, “Oh, is he hurt again? Something’s bothering him, and that’s what’s affecting his throwing, the accuracy…” I don’t know, the guy’s just always hurt.

Tommy: So one place where they are seemingly set— the infield is obviously pretty strong. I know Asdrubal Cabrera, who you weren’t as high on, raised his stock. Reyes raised his stock, Walker had a big year although the back injury is a concern, and you’re not counting on Wright health-wise but he’s still there, and Duda hits when he’s healthy, so they probably have more infielders than they can start at one time. And again, that always resolves itself because of the injuries. But how do you evaluate their Major League infield?

Keith: I think Cabrera, still, I think it was a terrible signing, he’s an awful defensive shortstop, it still shocks me that they’re willing to tolerate him out there. I understand good positioning can cover some of that, you’re just giving up outs by playing him out there. And I understand Rosario’s coming, I’m sure they’re hoping that he’s going to take that job sooner than later, it just doesn’t excuse that contract. The thing I’m interested to see is, Gavin Cecchini‘s had throwing problems that got worse last year not better, and I think that’s moved him off shortstop, probably permanently, and so, can he be OK at 2nd base? He’s still erratic, it’s a mental thing, like a yips-type situation, not an arm strength situation, because he used to be fine.

I think all along the plan was going to be for him to take over at short or at second, maybe this year. Obviously Walker coming back, accepting the qualifying offer, changes that, but it’s probably not the worst thing for Cecchini to let him go back to Triple-AAA for awhile and just try to get some consistency. It’s a shorter throw, it’s an easier throw, maybe that takes care of the problem. I hope so, because I think he can really hit, he’s a great kid, but that’s the one thing to watch for with the infield situation this year, is that maybe he ends up taking over for Walker at some point, especially if Walker doesn’t perform, if he comes back and he’s not healthy. He was great last year, good last year, but maybe he comes back and the back issue’s still there, and gives them cause to consider making a change.

Tommy: I’m surprised you say Cabrera… I remember that was your problem when we spoke last year, his defense, but from the eye-test first of all, he seemed definitely solid out there this year. And with the stats, on FanGraphs they had him positive defensively and Baseball Reference had him like exactly as a net zero… do you really still think he’s awful defensively? I mean…

Keith: Oh yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. He’s awful defensively. He’s barely mobile there. And I mean, look, you talk to Mitchel Lichtman [creator of the UZR stat], you talk to the BIS guys [Baseball Info Solutions], they tell you not to look too much into a single year of those stats. And the Mets do position well. They’ve been a very analytics-forward franchise for awhile now, and they’ve probably just had him in better spots. It’s not like the guy… the guy was never a good defensive shortstop, he has not been a good defensive shortstop since he was in the Seattle system, and what was that, nine years ago now?  And it’s not like he got better at some point, and certainly at his age there would be no rational reason to expect him to become a capable defensive shortstop, when he’s been below-average for so many years.

Tommy: I guess it just seems like he’s a good defender because he makes all the plays when he gets to it, he has good hands and everything, a good arm.  Anyway, where do you see the Mets in terms of further moves this summer, in terms of aggression and ability to add to the roster. They weren’t aggressive with guys outside the roster, and didn’t do much at the deadline aside from the Bruce trade. Obviously the deadline was also their low point record-wise, when it made the least sense to go for a deep playoff run, but yeah, where do you see them this year in terms of being buyers?

Keith: Well it seems like they don’t have a ton of financial flexibility remaining at this point [after their other moves]. If you’re asking from the competitive standpoint, it seems like the Nationals are a bit better on paper, I think they really certainly are better on paper, but I don’t think the difference between the two is big enough that the I would say the Mets are in a bad situation. They’re a little bit behind, but it’s a situation where they could close the gap by playing the right guys. If Conforto’s gonna get 600 plate appearances and not 300, that makes a huge difference in what I would project for their runs scored output this year. I think there’s… yeah, there’s a talent gap, but it’s not insurmountable, especially if the Mets just do the best they can with deploying the assets who are already inside the organization.

Tommy: So what’s your Mets prediction in terms of the division, where they are… your overall outlook for them this year?

Keith: I probably have them in second place. I’ll take a deeper look in March, I just came out of the prospect stuff, so I haven’t done any kind of deep dive on anything like projected standings for this year. But they’re clearly better than three of the clubs in their division. Do I think they’re better than the Nationals right now? Probably not. You know, I think they’ve got some issues of their own making, and obviously the Nationals have decided they’re all in at this point.

The Nationals certainly only have one big roster deficiency I can see and that’s a closer, which is probably the least important thing, and something they might be able to fix on the fly, whereas the Mets maybe have a few more issues, but I could also paint a scenario for you where the Mets get a little healthy, a little luck, play the right guys, and end up neck-and-neck with the Nationals. I don’t think there’s that big a gap between the teams.

Tommy: I meant to ask about the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton… Knowing what I do about the prospects, from your rankings and such, it seemed like a huge overpay. Did it seem like an overpay to you and the prospect experts out there? Were you surprised?

Keith: It was, I think that they sold low on Giolito in particular. I think they just decided for whatever reason they just weren’t going to get the same production out of him… I mean, a year ago this guy was the best pitching prospect in baseball, he’s still close to it. I think he’s gonna be great in Chicago, I think they’ll end up regretting that deal as a whole and he’ll be a major reason for it.

That said I think they’ll get value in Eaton, his contract’s obviously unbelievable, so they were trading for that, in addition to trading for the player. He makes them a better team right now, I think they’re better now with Eaton as an everyday outfielder than they were with Giolito in their rotation, because Giolito’s still developing, and Eaton is ready. We know what Eaton is, even if he’s only a 3 or 4-win player the next few years, he makes the Nationals better and you can more than justify the deal.

Tommy: I think that’s all I have for the Mets. One question for you, when does your book come out?

Keith: April 25th.

Tommy: And what is it about? I know the title is Smart Baseball, but more specifically?

Keith: It’s a book for the readers who have asked me over the years, what’s a book I can read myself, or pick up and give to my friend, my dad, to learn about the basics of sabermetrics. If you’re saying… “Keith, you say pitcher wins are useless, RBIs are useless, on-base percentage is good, and I agree, but I don’t understand all of this stuff,” … this is the book for that.

I talk about why the old stats don’t work, what some of the newer but still pretty basic stats are you can use as a fan, especially with how players are valued, and also talk about things like Statcast as I mentioned earlier, because I think that’s really gonna change the conversation over the next 5 to 10 years, but also potentially increase the gap between what we know, as fans and the media, and what the teams know internally about player values.

Tommy: So it’s bridging the gap between “Baseball for dummies” and “Baseball for complete nerds.”

Keith: Yeah, I was aiming for something very specific. This is not a math book, I didn’t want that, I didn’t think people wanted that. I thought people would want something that was… you know, I’m explaining things in very rational terms, but hopefully lively enough to still be readable, and still convince you, if you’re one of those people who says, “Trevor Hoffman had 600 saves, so he’s a Hall of Famer,” you should walk away and say, “Eh, that’s not a good argument.” You might still want him to be a Hall of Famer, that’s fine, but you’re gonna have to come up with a better argument.

Tommy: Alright, that’s all I have for today. Thanks again for doing this!

Keith: Of course, no problem. Take care!

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Again, I want to give a huge shoutout to Keith, and to you as well if you have taken the time to read through this bulky interview. Hopefully this has you even more geared up for the Mets to get back on the diamond. Stay tuned for some follow-up content such as “Main takeaways” and “Things we’ve learned.” Keith certainly didn’t hold back, and I didn’t necessarily agree with him on everything— I’m sure you’ll all have your own opinions as well, so leave your thoughts below!

The post MMO Exclusive: Keith Law Talks Mets Prospects, Season Outlook with Metsmerized Online appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

JEURYS FAMILIA, RHP

Player Data: Age: 27, Bats: Right, Throws: Right, Arbitration Eligible

2016 Primary Stats: 3-4. 51 Saves, 2.55 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 77.2 IP.

2016 Player Review:

Closers in baseball have a plight similar to that of kickers in football. You expect them to get the job done every time and are relieved when they do, but they really only become the story when they screw up. Jeurys Familia was terrific in 2016, leading the MLB in saves and games finished. When he blew his first save, it was shocking. When he blew a save in the next game as well, panic began to set in. People don’t realize that most teams would kill to have a closer who fails as infrequently as Familia.

Familia will, again, be unfairly judged by his postseason failures. In 2015, he was the scapegoat of the postseason despite an 0.63 ERA (the blown save in Game 1 was fully on him, but that’s it). After the Wild Card game, his postseason ERA skyrocketed to 2.30. Others have done worse. But Familia doesn’t have the pedigree to make these mistakes something people are willing to look past. Nobody cares that Mariano Rivera blew a series-clinching save in two series the Yankees would go on to lose (2001 World Series, 2004 ALCS).

But while I am a huge fan of Familia and will not make the mistake of throwing out two terrific seasons because of a disappointing but much smaller sample, I can’t say I was shocked by what happened in October. Not because I don’t think he has the “clutch gene,” but because I always felt hitters could fare better than they had been doing. It’s as simple as this: He needs to throw strikes. He’s amazing at getting hitters to chase, but it’s astounding how far hitters can get by just refusing to swing. He needs to be able to throw a good pitch for a strike when needed, and that perfect consistency isn’t there yet. After his control betrayed him in the Wild Card game, he finally took off the movement, aimed for the middle and grooved one to Conor Gillaspie. And that was it for our season.

So while I think he is a terrific closer, there is room for improvement. Which is scary, because an imperfect Familia has already done incredible things.

Grade: A-

[iframe]<div style=”width:100%;margin:10px 0;”><iframe src=”https://w.graphiq.com/w/azaDZFMcdff” width=”600″ height=”514″ frameborder=”0″ scrolling=”no” style=”position:static;vertical-align:top;margin:0 auto;display:block;width:600px !important;max-width:100%;min-height:514px !important;max-height:none !important;border:none;overflow:hidden;”></iframe><div style=”text-align:center;font:14px/16px Helvetica,arial;color:#3d3d3d;”><a target=”_blank” href=”https://baseball-players.pointafter.com/l/4936/Jeurys-Familia” style=”color:#3d3d3d;”>PointAfter | Graphiq</a></div></div>[/iframe]

2017 Outlook:

Familia is currently facing domestic violence charges, and it is impossible to predict how this will turn out without further detail. He could be facing a lengthy suspension, a middling suspension around 30-60 games, or none at all. When he is back on the mound, he will be a great pitcher, but will need to make some adjustments after the Giants finally became the team smart enough to try the not-that-complicated strategy of being patient against him. In the meantime, the Mets need to shore up their bullpen so that it can stay afloat if Familia is absent and then bridge the gap to him when he is available.

The post 2016 Mets Report Cards: Jeurys Familia, RP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

YOENIS CESPEDES, OF

Player Data: Age: 31, B/L: Right/Right, Free Agency: 2017

2016 Primary Stats: 132 G, .280 AVG, .354 OBP, .530 SLG, .25 2B, 31 HR, 86 RBI

2016 Review:

What a player. Yoenis Cespedes, for the second year in a row, was everything to the Mets’ offense. The team was 72-54 when Cespedes was in the starting lineup, and 15-21 when he was not. As was a theme with this year’s club, injuries definitely held Cespedes back. The Cuban slugger not only missed or did not start in 36 games, but played hurt for much of the year.

Yoenis began the season on a power tear, hitting 7 home runs in April and 8 more in May. He seemed like a lock to shatter the franchise’s single-season record, but injuries took their toll and his bat came a bit back down to earth, especially from a power standpoint.

That’s not to say Cespedes was only a first-half player. His return to the lineup in August was arguably the main catalyst for the terrific stretch run that carried this team to a second straight playoff appearance. And to judge a player’s season by his playoff performance, especially when that sample size this year was ONE GAME against an elite pitcher, is asinine.

Still, his numbers would be even more impressive if he had sustained his early level of play throughout the campaign. Yo’s first-half slash line was an incredible .302/.372/.583 with 21 home runs. And he wasn’t catastrophic in the field like some had feared (he certainly helped his team more, on the whole, than Jason Heyward).

Cespedes is, unquestionably, the big bat in this lineup. We have other solid offensive players, but nobody like him. But once again, he is a free agent. If the Mets can’t find a way to bring him back again, replacing him in the lineup will be an enormous challenge, especially when, while our other outfielders hit left-handed, Cespedes is a righty who absolutely crushes left-handed pitching.

Grade: A-

2017 Outlook:

Cespedes should still have plenty left in the tank at age 31, but he’ll need to avoid these nagging injuries. He’ll bring one of the league’s most dangerous bats to the table. But he’s a free agent, and he might be the headliner in a weak class. He’ll have some lucrative deals to choose from. He wants to be a Met, so hopefully the two sides can yet again find a way to make it work.

The post 2016 Mets Report Cards: Yoenis Cespedes, OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

WILMER FLORES, 1B, 2B, 3B

Player Data: Age 25, Bats Right, Throws: Right, Arbitration Eligible (1)

2016 Primary Stats: 103 G, 16 HR, 14 2B, 49 RBI, 267 AVG, .319 OBP, .469 SLG

2016 Review:

WIIILLLLLMMMAAAAA! A big fan favorite, Wilmer Flores had his ups and downs in 2016, but mostly gave the Mets what they needed: A guy who could fill many roles and swing the bat.

Now, Wilmer got off to an absolutely terrible start, and was a complete non-factor in April and May. But when injuries piled up, and Flores started to get more playing time, he started to get it going. Wilmer hit .289 in June, .290 with 7 home runs in July, and .306 with five homers in August. In each of these months, Flores appeared in over 20 games and started between 16 and 22.

Flores, as the Mets quickly realized, was terrific against lefties, although he struggled against righties. Wilmer hit .340/.383/.710 against southpaws while struggling to a slash line of .232/.289/.353 against right-handed pitching. And as Wilmer went, so did the Mets. Flores hit .339 in wins and .180 in losses.

Meanwhile, his defense was tolerable. Not great, but tolerable. Flores slotted in at first, second, third and shortstop over the course of the year, and it was clear that he worked hard to learn as much as he could about each position. With injuries plaguing the team all year, Flores became very valuable as a guy who could slot in for whoever was hurt or needed a day off. And against lefties, he has become a bona-fide starter in his own right.

Unfortunately, Flores suffered an injury late in the season and missed the final stretch and the postseason. The Mets could have used his bat in some of their final games, and certainly against lefty Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs. Still, Wilmer certainly stepped up to the plate for this team and gave us what we needed from him.

Grade: B-

[iframe]<div style=”width:100%;margin:10px 0;”><iframe src=”https://w.graphiq.com/w/4vMP6uPJaZL” width=”640″ height=”549″ frameborder=”0″ scrolling=”no” style=”position:static;vertical-align:top;margin:0 auto;display:block;width:640px !important;max-width:100%;min-height:549px !important;max-height:none !important;border:none;overflow:hidden;”></iframe><div style=”text-align:center;font:14px/16px Helvetica,arial;color:#3d3d3d;”><a target=”_blank” href=”https://baseball-players.pointafter.com/l/5237/Wilmer-Flores” style=”color:#3d3d3d;”>PointAfter | Graphiq</a></div></div>[/iframe]

2017 Outlook:

With questions related to injury, performance and free agency hanging over the Mets, including the infielders, Flores has tremendous value to the team in 2017. He can form half of a platoon at first, second or third if a need arises due to injuries to David Wright or Lucas Duda, a trade of Duda, or either injury to or departure of Neil Walker. That being said, if the Mets end up needing to pencil Flores in as the starter at a position, they would do well to find a left-handed bat who can play that position as well.

The post 2016 Mets Report Cards: Wilmer Flores, IF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets and Giants will call on their aces in Wednesday night’s NL Wild Card Game at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard will face Madison Bumgarner in the win-or-go-home clash.

The Mets have Thor and a lot of momentum, but they still have their work cut out for them. What are some keys to winning this pitchers’ duel?

Keys for Syndergaard: Preparedness, Effectiveness and Efficiency

For the Mets, it all starts with Noah Syndergaard. Thor is an incredible pitcher looking to extend what has been an incredible season. When he is on, he is great. He is usually on, which is what makes him great. But much like the Mets with Bumgarner, the Giants’ chances of winning revolve largely around things going wrong for Noah.

Noah needs to understand what can and can’t happen here if the Mets want to win. He needs to know his weaknesses.

We all know that Thor struggles mightily holding runners on base, although he has gotten better at it lately. He and (presumably) Rene Rivera must continue to be mindful of the runners, but there are two bases you don’t have to worry about opponents stealing: First and Home. Noah needs to keep runners off base, especially early in innings so that he can focus on getting outs and not necessarily strikeouts.

When Syndergaard needs to chase strikeouts, it exacerbates another problem: pitch counts. Noah can’t help the Mets win if he’s not on the mound. One of Thor’s least effective starts came in a 98-pitch outing against the Giants, in which he lasted 5.2 innings. One of his best starts of the year came in another 98-pitch outing against the Giants. That time, Noah went 8 innings. If Thor is throwing 20 pitches per inning early in the game, that spells trouble for New York.

But if Noah can get through the early innings unscathed, the Mets are in very nice shape. In the first four innings, Noah’s ERAs are 1.80, 2.10, 3.99 and 5.20. From the fifth inning on, his ERAs are 1.35, 1.57, 1.32 and zero. If Syndergaard gets to the fifth without falling behind, he’ll only get better, as long as he has enough left in the tank to stay on the mound. Quick, scoreless innings in the first half of the game will put Noah and the Mets in great shape, and he can get those zeroes by getting ahead in counts, getting the leadoff guy in each inning, and doing all he can to control the running game.

If Noah can check all the boxes needed for him to be successful on Wednesday night, the Mets have a great chance to advance. Again, he is an ace. He is usually great. When it comes to the guy on the mound, the Mets just need to hope it’s business as usual in this one-game playoff.

Keys to beating Bumgarner: Get Him Early, Get Him Late, Get it Over the Wall

Madison Bumgarner is a great pitcher with an incredible playoff record. The last time he pitched in the Wild-Card game, he threw a complete-game shutout to send the Pirates home and send the Giants on their way to a championship.

Bumgarner doesn’t have Thor’s nasty stuff, but he has fewer weak spots and bad habits/trends, which, combined with his incredible résumé, likely has Giants fans focusing almost entirely on beating Thor rather than avoiding potential trouble on the mound. There is a good chance we will see a great outing from both pitchers. And while there might be a larger chance of a truly bad outing from Thor than Bumgarner (and those chances are still low for both pitchers), I think Bumgarner and the Giants might be more prone to defeat should the game stay neat and clean.

Bumgarner has a good but relatively modest 3.18 ERA in the first inning. If you don’t get to him then, he usually settles down. The Mets, for their part, are a dangerous team in the first inning, having scored right off the bat in 49 games this season. Falling behind would put Noah and the Mets in a hole, but New York taking the early lead might put the Giants in an even bigger one. The Mets’ chances of winning when leading after each inning are 71, 73, 77 and 85 percent for the first four innings, which is very high (for reference, the Giants sit at 75, 64, 66 and 73 percent, and the gap only grows in the Mets’ favor as the game goes on).

If the Mets can’t score early, however, that puts the pressure back on Thor. But come the late-middle innings, Bumgarner becomes vulnerable once again, with his ERA ticking up to 2.65 in the 5th before spiking to 3.41 in the 6th and 5.09 in the 7th. The deeper Bumgarner goes into the game, the more hittable he gets. And if he doesn’t go deep, the Mets might get a crack at the embattled Giants bullpen.

I say “might,” however, because San Francisco, like New York, is in win-or-go-home mode. This means that all hands are on deck, and Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are therefore liable to be used in relief. So getting to Bumgarner to at least some extent is still a huge key for New York, although it certainly helps the Mets’ cause that Terry Collins has a better bullpen than Bruce Bochy.

Fortunately on that front, Bumgarner is very prone to the home run, having allowed 26 this season. The Mets, meanwhile, ranked fifth in the MLB when it came to hitting them over the fence.

All this goes to say that if Noah Syndergaard can turn in a strong, long outing, the Mets are in great shape, even against one of the best playoff performers of his generation.

Get Lucky. It’s One Game

One game. Win or go home. The sample size here is tiny and the ramifications are huge. The margin for error is non-existent.

Yoenis Cespedes or Buster Posey might hit a home run with nobody on base, or they might connect for a grand slam. Or maybe they’ll both go hitless, and somebody at the bottom of the order will have a huge game. Stars might come up small and low-profile guys might come up big. An error at the wrong time, a lousy call from the home plate umpire here and there, a bad hop, a blooper or a rocket that finds a glove might decide the game. A lot of it might just come down to plain old luck.

The division race has been over since July, so for this Mets team, they’ve been fighting all these months for Wednesday night’s game. A loss, and the Mets are done. A win, and we’re back in the NLDS, a couple good series away from another crack at a championship.

Baseball isn’t designed to come down to just one game. But for the Wild Card teams, it will. Both teams have a good chance of winning. We can look at the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and both starters and figure out the most likely factors to generate either outcome. But in one game, it doesn’t matter what has happened or what should happen, or what 1,000 computer simulations say is most likely to happen.

All that matters is what happens on Wednesday night. It’s gonna be Wild.

The post Syndergaard and Bumgarner to Square Off: Keys to a Pitcher’s Duel appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

With all eyes on the game and few eyes on the score, the New York Mets (83-74) fell 7-3 to the Miami Marlins (78-78) on Monday night in South Beach. With the Giants off and the Cardinals losing to Cincinnati, the Mets lead San Francisco by half a game and St Louis by one game in the NL Wild Card race.

The night began with a pregame ceremony to honor late Marlins superstar José Fernandez, after which the two teams spontaneously embraced each other in the infield. Every Marlins player wore Fernandez’s jersey throughout the game.

Dee Gordon led off the bottom of the first for Miami, wearing Fernandez’s helmet and initially batting from the right side to honor his fallen best friend. After switching to his natural left side of the plate, Gordon drove a 2-0 pitch from Bartolo Colon over the wall for his first home run of the season, breaking down as he rounded the bases and embracing his teammates and coaches upon reaching the dugout.

The Marlins controlled the game from there, scoring four more runs in the 2nd inning and two in the 3rd to chase Bartolo early.

The Mets bullpen provided 5.2 scoreless innings in relief of Colon, with Gabriel Ynoa (1.2 innings), Rafael Montero (1), Erik Goeddel (1.2), Josh Edgin (0.1) and Jim Henderson (1) keeping the game within reason. New York scored two in the fifth on an Asdrubal Cabrera double that made it 7-2, but left the bases loaded in the sixth and managed only an RBI single from Lucas Duda the rest of the way, as Adam Conley (who pitched just three innings) and the Marlins bullpen held strong to finish off the 7-3 win.

The Mets need wins down the stretch, but it was hard to watch this game with that in mind.

Up Next: Noah Syndergaard will face Tom Koehler when the Mets face Miami on Tuesday at 7:10 in Miami.

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