Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

In what was an extremely disappointing 2021 season, which saw the New York Mets miss the playoffs for a fifth straight year, starter Carlos Carrasco served as one of the club’s biggest underperformers and failed to deliver on his high expectations.

Despite those failures, all may not be lost for the 34-year-old pitcher.

Acquired in a blockbuster trade from the Cleveland Guardians last offseason, the same deal that also brought shortstop Francisco Lindor to Queens, Carrasco was expected to help solidify the Mets’ starting rotation led by ace Jacob deGrom. Unfortunately, his season was derailed by injury almost as soon as spring training began.

Thanks to a torn hamstring, the right-hander’s season debut was delayed until Jul. 30, when he made his first start in blue and orange against the Cincinnati Reds. Adding to his injury-riddled performance, the veteran hurler also battled through an elbow injury for seemingly most of the summer, which required surgery back in October.

Needless to say, Carrasco’s inaugural campaign in New York was overtaken by a pair of significant injuries, both of which likely played huge factors towards his miserable 6.04 ERA and 5.22 FIP from this past season. But if he returns to full health in 2022, could these struggles disappear?

At this stage of his career, that’s all anyone is hoping for heading into next season.

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

For a pitcher that’s set to turn 35-years-old in March, staying on the field consistently through a 162-game schedule is usually easier said than done, especially for someone like Carrasco, who hasn’t completed 100 innings in a single season since 2018.

Between battling leukemia in 2019, enduring the shortened 2020 campaign and his injuries from last season, these last three years have been anything but ordinary for the 6’4″ starter. Not to mention, the majority of that span has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic – not something that can easily be pushed aside, particularly for a cancer survivor.

Looking ahead to 2022, Carrasco is entering one of the most crucial seasons of his professional career, as his current contract will either expire or extend through 2023 depending on his health status. If he compiles at least 170 innings next season, his $14 million vesting option will kick in for the following year, which also includes a $3 million buyout.

Based on his age and recent injury history, entering free agency next winter probably wouldn’t be the most profitable decision as he’d likely be limited to a low-risk, high-reward type of contract. With that in mind, the former front-line starter will need to prove he can stay on the field and perform at a high level to avoid that troubling outcome.

Presuming Carrasco’s elbow surgery was successful, receiving a clean bill of health could potentially open him up to a strong bounce-back performance in 2022. In particular, one of the biggest areas where he could witness improvement involves his ability to induce high amounts of strikeouts.

From 2017-2020, the native of Venezuela posted a 28.0% strikeout rate or higher during each of those four seasons. But in 2021, his percentage dropped significantly below that threshold, falling to a 21.1% clip – his lowest rate since 2013 (13.8%).

Digging deeper into this matter, Carrasco’s strikeout rate declined by 8.2% last season (29.3% in ’20), which was the 16th-largest decrease in the majors among all qualified pitchers, according to BaseballSavant.com.

What caused this sudden change? Can it be blamed on the bone fragment that needed to be removed from his elbow? Possibly. Or what about the crackdown on foreign substances, did that play a factor? It’s unclear.

For now, let’s remain optimistic and hope it was the latter of those two options.

As for how this development affected Carrasco’s pitches, every offering except for his slider experienced some sort of negative impact regarding their strikeout totals last season. In addition, he also reduced the usage of his premier swing-and-miss weapon (slider) and threw more four-seamers, largely making both pitches less effective.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

Over his six seasons from 2015-2020, Carrasco’s four-seamer only exceeded a 40% usage once (’17) and for the most part, ranged in the mid-30s during that span. Changing that narrative this past season, his primary fastball was utilized 39.5% of the time – an increase of 4.8% from ’20.

Sadly, this increased usage didn’t lead to quality results as his heater performed to a concerning .297 AVG, .254 xAVG, .622 SLG (career-worst), .509 xSLG, .406 wOBA and a .358 xwOBA through 61 batted-ball events.

And yet, the former international free agent still reduced the frequency of his most-effective breaking ball, as its usage dropped from 27.2% in ’20 to just 20% in ’21. As a result, it served as his third-most employed pitch after it had been utilized as either his first or second option in each of the three previous seasons.

So why didn’t Carrasco lean on his secondary pitches, more specifically, his slider, rather than continuing to call upon his four-seamer? Well, his elbow injury may have been responsible for that as his primary breaking ball continued down a troubling path.

Exploring its vertical movements, the righty’s slider averaged 39.1 inches of drop in 2019, however, it’s declined over the previous two seasons and reached a career-worst mark of 29.7 inches in 2021. In turn, his breaking ball hung up in the strike zone far too often, leading to a 29.4% flyball rate, a .481 SLG and a .461 xSLG – all three metrics were career-worsts.

Making matters worse, along with experiencing a dramatic decrease in vertical movement, Carrasco’s slider also took a massive hit regarding its spin rate, which suddenly dropped to an average of 2,383 RPMs last season.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

In comparison, his slider’s spin rate averaged 2,693 RPMs from 2018-2020, including a peak of 2,793 RPMs during the 60-game schedule. So why the drastic decline during the following season?

If Carrasco’s elbow injury was causing him considerable discomfort, which at this point, is fair to assume, it likely motivated him to alter his pitching mechanics to help relieve some of that pain. Additionally, this would also explain why he continued to reduce his breaking ball’s usage, especially if this injury bothered him even before last season.

Now that he’s healthy once again, obviously, the focus point will shift to keeping things that way and reverting back to what’s worked for him in the past – equally leaning on both his slider and four-seamer while complimenting these two pitches with his changeup.

For a Mets squad that signed superstar Max Scherzer in free agency, the hope is to have him strengthen the club’s already talented starting rotation that’s now headlined by a big three – so to speak – of deGrom, Scherzer and Carrasco. If all three starters remain healthy, this franchise could possess one of the top pitching trios in the majors – if not the best.

So as disappointing as last season was for Carrasco, a return to full health appears to be his best chance of making a quick turnaround in 2022.

For everyone’s sake, let’s hope it plays out that way.

The post Opinion: Healthy Carrasco Would Be Huge Boost To Mets Rotation appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Set to enter a pivotal 2022 campaign, the New York Mets are expected to face a handful of tough decisions once this current lockout concludes, could one of them revolve around second baseman Robinson Cano?

Given that Cano is coming off his second PED suspension – his first one cost him 80 games in 2018 – and has largely been considered an afterthought for most of this off-season, it’s fair to wonder about his future with this organization.

For a franchise that’s seemingly pushed all of its chips into the middle of the table, the Mets must decide on whether or not they want to welcome Cano back into their clubhouse following his 162-game suspension. Considering the 2022 season is expected to serve as a postseason or bust type of year, this organization certainly can’t afford to take this decision lightly.

Since a new Collective Bargaining Agreement remains unsigned, New York still has a few months to internally debate this difficult situation before needing to make a final decision. So at 39-years-old, is there a possibility he could be released before next season begins?

In short, yes. But at the same time, would there be any advantages to cutting ties with the eight-time All-Star in the near future?

Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

From a financial standpoint, Cano is scheduled to earn $24 million in ’22 and ’23 before his monster 10-year, $240-million contract finally expires. Thanks to a clause that was included in that blockbuster trade – the one that sent former top prospect Jarred Kelenic the other way – from the 2018-19 offseason, the Seattle Mariners are paying $3.75 million of his salary in each of the next two seasons.

As a result, the Mets are on the hook for the remaining $20.25 million that’ll be paid to him per season through 2023, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

But unless Cano is suspended for a third time, which would permanently expel him from Major League Baseball, there wouldn’t be any financial benefit to releasing him before his contract runs out. Aside from getting kicked out of the league, the only other way this franchise would gain some financial relief is if he retires before the 2023 season concludes.

Of course, the Mets could attempt to trade Cano and his expensive contract, however, any potential deal would probably just prove to be a lose-lose situation as the front office would likely need to include a top prospect or two to make this move into a reality.

Along with the financial side of this dilemma, there are also several on-field ramifications this team must first consider before agreeing to allow the veteran infielder to re-enter the organization. First and foremost, he’d need to apologize to his teammates, both new and old, for cheating the game for the second time in his career.

Even if the former Mariner was willing to do that, there’s no guarantee the overwhelming response from within the clubhouse would be positive. Should the Mets put their locker room atmosphere at risk for someone who’s in the late stages of his career and has cheated the sport twice?

That question can only be answered from inside the organization.

Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Then, after those topics are discussed, management would have to determine Cano’s role on the team and decide where he’d best be utilized. Would that be as a full-time infielder? As an everyday designated hitter? Or perhaps in some sort of reserve position?

Presuming the National League adopts a universal DH in the next CBA, which is likely to happen, chances are the two-time Gold Glove Award winner would spend the majority of his at-bats in that type of role. If that proves to be the case, how might that impact this club’s ability to pursue a left-handed slugger like Kyle Schwarber in free agency?

Based on his 32 home runs, .288 ISO, .554 slugging percentage, 145 wRC+ and 3.1 fWAR from last season, there’s no question New York would benefit from acquiring the 28-year-old. But would he sign on for a platoon DH role in 2022? Probably not.

A few other questions the Mets must ask themselves about Cano is: Can he still perform at a high level? And what version would they be receiving next season?

If it’s the Cano from the 2019 season that performed to just 13 home runs, 39 RBIs, a .256/.307/.428 slashing line, a 94 wRC+ and a 0.8 fWAR through 423 plate appearances, they’d probably be better off without him.

But if the 2020 version of himself arrives, which saw him post 10 home runs, 30 RBIs, a .316/.352/.544 slashing line, a 142 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR over just 182 plate appearances during the shortened schedule, it’d be beneficial to keep him around.

While Cano has remained active during his time away from MLB, as he’s suited up in the Dominican Winter League during this offseason and the previous one, it’s difficult to determine how much he has left in the tank. Even as a DH, the five-time Silver Slugger Award winner could struggle to perform effectively in 2022, potentially making him a liability at the dish.

In particular, the left-hander didn’t generate many walks even before his second suspension, as his measly 4.9% walk rate from 2020 ranked in the 10th percentile among all qualified hitters. Though his strikeout rate has never exceeded 17% throughout his career, he’s produced a 30% chase rate or higher in every season since Statcast tracking began in 2015, with that percentage reaching a career-worst mark (42%) in 2020.

As for his quickness, well, Cano has never been known for his speed and that certainly won’t change moving forward, especially since his 24.8 sprint speed from the 2020 season finished in the ninth percentile.

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Considering the Mets are hoping to improve in these areas next season, reinserting the Dominican native into the mix almost certainly wouldn’t help them accomplish either of those feats. More than likely, he’d hinder his team’s ability to reach base consistently while also slowing them down on the base paths.

Not to mention, how many games will Cano be capable of playing during his age-39 season? 100? 120? Less than that? Above all else, staying on the field might be one of his biggest obstacles to overcome.

If New York is to keep the veteran lefty on its roster, this opportunity could come with a very short leash as it may end up being his final chance in the majors. Nearing the end of his current contract, now is the time to say all the right things and act as a strong leader on and off the field to prove he deserves this redeemable moment – if it indeed comes to him.

As we’ve already witnessed this winter, owner Steve Cohen and the front office aren’t afraid to make roster-altering changes. With that in mind, if the 16-year MLB vet doesn’t prove worthy of this opportunity, or no longer possesses a place with this franchise, his expensive salary may not be enough to prevent them from cutting him loose.

But as the clock ticks towards spring training, the Mets must soon determine whether it’s more beneficial to pay Cano to play with the team or remain away from it.

The post Are Mets Better Off Just Releasing Robinson Cano? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

After all, the Mets were reportedly interested in acquiring Anderson’s services prior to last season’s trade deadline, where they were rumored to be one of a handful of teams inquiring to the Pittsburgh Pirates regarding the 32-year-old. Despite all that, the Seattle Mariners were declared the winner as they landed the impending free agent for the remainder of the campaign.

But after the Mariners didn’t tender the veteran hurler a qualifying offer, he ultimately became a free agent for the third time in his professional career earlier this offseason. As soon as this current lockout expires – whenever that happens – the 6’2″ starter will be tasked with searching for his next contract, something the Mets could certainly assist him with.

Before the league-wide transaction freeze commenced, New York solidified its top four starters by adding Max Scherzer to a group that already featured Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker. Beyond them, however, there remains plenty of uncertainty surrounding the final rotation spot.

As currently constructed, an in-house competition between David Peterson and Tylor Megill would likely be required to determine which pitcher would round out the club’s pitching staff. Having said that, considering both hurlers are fairly inexperienced at the major league level, it might be beneficial to add a veteran arm to this group.

Since this organization lacks left-handed pitching, as Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Thomas Szapucki are the only lefties featured on the 40-man roster, it’d probably be wise to add another starter of that variety. With that in mind, pursuing Anderson for the second time in less than a year would make plenty of sense.

Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Despite splitting the 2021 season between two organizations, Anderson enjoyed plenty of success with both the Pirates and Mariners, as he performed to one of the best showings of his major league career.

Over his 31 starts, the former first-round selection compiled 167.0 innings pitched, posting a respectable 4.53 ERA, 4.24 xERA, 4.37 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and a 2.1 fWAR rating – his highest rating since 2016 (2.4).

If we dig deeper, we’ll discover that Anderson has been exceptional at limiting hard contact throughout his time in the majors, which has seen him record a career 30.7% hard-hit rate against and an 86.7 mph average exit velocity against. In particular, his 33.0% hard-hit rate against from this past season ranked in the 88th percentile among all qualified pitchers – his 87.0 mph average exit velocity against finished in the 84th percentile.

For a team like the Mets, whose starters finished with the eighth-worst hard-hit rate against (39.9%) and tied for the eighth-worst average exit velocity against (89.2 mph) in 2021, according to FanGraphs.com, they’d surely benefit from acquiring a starter that thrives in that department.

Along with limiting hard contact, Anderson also excels at keeping runners off the base paths and inducing a decent amount of strikeouts as well. Reaching a new level on that front last season, the former Mariner registered a career-best 5.4% walk rate, which placed tied for fourth-best among all qualified starters.

As for his ability to induce swings and misses, the Nevada native produced a 19.1% strikeout rate – his highest rate since 2019 (21.7%) – a 23.1% whiff rate along with a career-best 33.3% chase rate. Given that his chase rate ranked in the 94th percentile, it seems he should be capable of generating even more strikeouts in future seasons.

But if the five-pitch hurler (four-seamer, cutter, changeup, sinker and curveball) is to accomplish that feat, a few mechanical adjustments will likely be required involving his low-80s changeup.

While Anderson created the majority of his strikeouts with his two main fastballs (four-seamer and cutter) in 2021, it was his changeup that earned the highest whiff rate (28.7%) among all of his pitches. Unfortunately, inconsistent command prevented it from serving as a reliable out pitch, resulting in a measly 14.3% strikeout rate.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

As shown in the chart above, Anderson’s off-speed pitch was primarily located in the bottom half of the strike zone, and below it at times as well. But on occasion, it’d hang up around the letters of opposing batters, allowing them to produce a concerning .488 slugging percentage against it.

If New York’s coaching staff were able to help the left-hander improve his changeup’s downward movement, which averaged just 28.2 inches of drop last season, there’s a pretty strong chance it’d become a much more effective weapon moving forward.

Then, rather than counting on just two pitches during strikeout situations, Anderson would be able to add a third offering to that mix, one that could potentially transform into his most valuable pitch. Either way, making this type of adjustment would undoubtedly better his career in the long run.

Considering the Oregon standout recently turned 32-years-old, and is coming off a one-year, $2.5-million contract, chances are he’ll be seeking a multi-year deal that’d pay him a sizeable raise from last season’s salary. Based on the 2.1 WAR rating from his latest performance, it’d be reasonable to assume he could fetch a deal worth somewhere around $8-$10 million per season.

Though the Mets have already spent $130 million in free agency on their rotation this winter, for a pitcher of Anderson’s caliber, making another investment, albeit, one much smaller than Scherzer’s lucrative deal, could prove to be extremely worthwhile.

While the veteran lefty would still likely need to compete for that final rotation, given his six seasons of major league experience, paired with his 2021 performance, his chances of winning that gig would probably be fairly high. In turn, Megill could begin next season at triple-A Syracuse, with Peterson potentially taking over the vacant muli-inning reliever role.

That way, New York would not only possess a talented left-hander in its starting rotation but also a lefty in the bullpen, who in all likelihood, could be utilized in several different situations – including medium to high leverage if needed.

So despite missing out on Anderson last summer, the front office appears poised with an opportunity to acquire its target a second time around.

The post Opinion: Renewed Pursuit of Tyler Anderson Makes Sense For Mets appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo by Chris Simon

As 2021 draws to a close, so too does a disappointing year for the New York Mets. But as the new year begins, it brings plenty of optimism for this organization that’s looking to end its five-season playoff drought in 2022.

Until next season opens, however, this franchise will look to improve its roster even further once a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed, ending this transaction freeze.

Once the current lockout concludes, the Mets will have some unfinished business to attend to, particularly involving their position player group. Among the issues that’ll need to be addressed, infielder J.D. Davis‘ uncertain future is expected to be a major focus area shortly after the offseason resumes.

Though there’s likely a small fraction of the fanbase wishing for the 28-year-old to stick around a little longer, unfortunately, he finds himself in a very tough spot coming off his injury-riddled performance from last season.

Heading into 2021, Davis was slated to serve as New York’s everyday third baseman, and was provided with every opportunity to do so out of the gate. Sadly, a nagging hand injury completely derailed his third campaign in Queens, resulting in four separate stints on the injured list and ultimately season-ending surgery in October.

Since the 6’3″ infielder was sidelined for most of the year, he was limited to just 211 plate appearances through 73 games, preventing him from making a sizeable impact like previously anticipated. Due to his injury woes, the right-hander was only available for small chunks at a time throughout the schedule, transforming himself into an unreliable performer.

Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

For Davis, his lack of availability meant he was largely forced to take a back seat even after being activated off the IL, allowing former teammate Jonathan Villar to assume the starter’s role at third base. In turn, the righty slugger was bumped down the Mets’ depth chart, shifting him into more of a reserve role.

Still, when healthy, the former third-round selection did provide some offensive upside as he posted a 130 wRC+ score over his limited plate appearances. While brief, he did enjoy an occasional highlight-worthy performance or two during this past season.

In particular, one of Davis’ brightest moments, and there weren’t many of them in 2021, occurred on Jul. 17 against the Pittsburgh Pirates – his second game off the IL – where he crushed a pair of home runs, albeit, in a losing effort.

Despite a few strong showings, overall, most of the veteran infielder’s offensive production was largely overtaken by his alarmingly high strikeout total. Reaching new levels of concern in 2021, he finished with the highest strikeout rate (32.2%), whiff rate (41%) and swinging-strike rate (19.4%) of his major league career.

As a result, though strikeouts have been a concerning aspect of Davis’ craft previously, by far, they easily exceeded those marks throughout the entirety of last season.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

Paired with his swing and miss woes, Davis’ ineffective defense has proven to be another huge reason why he’s fallen out of place with New York’s organization. Regardless of where he’s been positioned over the years, the soon-t0-be 29-year-old has made his team worse by taking the field.

Since 2020, the California native has spent the majority of his time at third base, compiling 652 innings at the hot corner. And yet, he’s registered a miserable -7 OAA rating during that span, which is tied for fourth-worst among all qualified third basemen, according to BaseballSavant.com.

With Eduardo Escobar joining the organization earlier this winter, there’s no question he’ll receive a chance to take over the starting job at third base next season. In addition, considering Robinson Cano will be returning from his suspension, odds are Jeff McNeil is poised to spend some time at the hot corner as well, potentially in a super utility role.

Moving beyond the major league roster, New York also features a very talented group of infielders who’re nearly ready to emerge onto the scene at the highest level of competition – including Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos.

Not to mention, free agent Kris Bryant, who isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, also remains a strong possibility as a potential target. Even though this club would be better served to utilize its remaining resources on rounding out the rest of the roster, passing up the chance to acquire a four-time All-Star could prove to be extremely difficult.

Combining all of these factors, it’s probably safe to say Davis and the Mets would both greatly benefit from a divorce at some point this offseason. Considering he’s under team control through 2024, a trade seems to be a very feasible solution to this dilemma.

The only question is, when might that happen?

Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

At this point, that answer remains cloudy at best. But once a new CBA is signed, perhaps trade discussions involving the Elk Grove HS product can begin to intensify, hopefully resulting in a satisfying resolution for both sides.

As for potential destinations, Davis would obviously be better off with a franchise that requires an offensive-first corner infielder. On the surface, three teams jump out right away, including the Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs.

Based on each of their current rosters, the right-handed slugger would surely be destined to receive consistent playing time if traded to either of these three organizations. That way, assuming he remains healthy, he’d be given a fair chance to remain a starter in the majors rather than continuing to transition into a bench player.

From New York’s perspective, ideally, management would be in search of some major-league ready pitching in exchange for Davis’ services. Luckily, Miami and Kansas City are both rich with young talented arms in their respective farm systems, and could be willing to part with a low-ceiling starter to complete this move.

If that proves to be the case, the Mets would be cleaning up a crowded infield while also adding to their already impressive starting pitching depth, by making just one trade. That’d be a pretty impressive accomplishment.

Even if Davis is traded elsewhere, one thing is clear, he remains the odd man out amongst this current position player group as 2022 commences.

The post J.D. Davis Remains Odd Met Out As 2022 Begins appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The holiday season is finally upon us and for the New York Mets, there’s one reliever they should have atop their wish list this year.

Among the many talented pitchers that remained available in free agency prior to Major League Baseball’s lockout, reliever Andrew Chafin was arguably the best option for any team looking to make a significant bullpen upgrade. Once this current transaction freeze is lifted, there’s no question the 31-year-old should attract plenty of attention across the majors.

For a Mets squad that already lost out on Aaron Loup, who left town to sign a two-year, $17-million contract with the Los Angeles Angels earlier this offseason, most of their attention will likely be focused on the reliever market in 2022. With that in mind, what better way to fill that void than with one of the top left-handed relief arms in the sport, right?

Further to this, Chafin is coming off the best statistical performance of his eight-year major league career, where he posted a stellar 1.83 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 2.98 FIP, .184 OPP AVG, 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and a 1.4 fWAR rating over his 68 2/3 innings between the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics.

Adding to his remarkable performance, the 6’2″ hurler also registered five saves – all of which came with the Athletics – and 22 holds last season.

Putting these results into perspective with the rest of the majors, Chafin served as one of the top-performing relievers and will eventually be rewarded for his efforts, as he finished with the sixth-best ERA and tied for the 11th-highest fWAR rating among all relief pitchers who compiled at least 50 innings pitched, according to FanGraphs.com.

Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Granted, Chafin isn’t your traditional high strikeout reliever that can blow opposing hitters away with velocity and movement. In saying that, the left-hander is capable of being effective in other key areas of pitching, particularly ones that aren’t very common.

One of the biggest reasons why the long-time Arizona Diamondback was so successful in 2021 was because of his ability to limit hard contact and keep balls in the yard, which are two aspects that have become extremely critical in today’s era. However, there’s certainly a shortage of pitchers that can apply both of those skills at the highest level of competition.

With Chafin, his hard-hit rate against (32%) ranked in the 87th percentile this past season, according to BaseballSavant.com. Despite allowing a career-worst 38.8% fly ball rate, that percentage didn’t hinder his performance as he only surrendered four home runs all season.

Paired with his 44.9% ground ball rate – his highest percentage since 2018 – the majority of balls that were put in play against the former first-round pick were either softly hit on the ground or in the air. As a result, his outstanding 5.8% HR/FB ratio finished 12th-best in the majors among all qualified relievers.

Historically, Chafin has been widely known for his success against left-handed hitters, and this past season wasn’t any different. But with the three-batter minimum rule in effect, he was also forced to face significantly more right-handers than compared to previous campaigns, and yet, his results fared pretty well in that department, too.

In total, the Ohio native faced 162 righties over his 68 appearances in 2021, generating a 2.18 ERA, 2.83 FIP, .196 OPP AVG, 26.5% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 6% HR/FB ratio and a 35.2% hard-hit rate against.

Considering Chafin’s strong suit has been facing left-handers, his ability to also excel against right-handers makes him an even more attractive target for all 30 teams, especially the Mets. In an era where lefty specialists have sort of become extinct, this evolution of his game should allow him to remain an effective pitcher for many years to come.

Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Exploring the strongest part of his game, the former Athletic dominated lefties like never before, resulting in the third-best hard-hit rate against (20.5%), the fourth-best OPP SLG percentage (.223), the sixth-best ERA (1.32), the seventh-highest GB rate (59.2%) and the 11th-best OPP AVG (.170) among all relievers who faced at least 100 left-handers last season.

In addition, the Kent State standout also recorded a 3.21 FIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and a 5.3% HR/FB ratio.

As for his pitch arsenal, Chafin relies on three different offerings, including a low-90s sinker, a low-90s four-seamer and a mid-80s slider. In the past, he’s also occasionally mixed in his mid-80s changeup, however, he only threw one of them throughout the 2021 campaign and didn’t use it at all the previous year.

For the most part, the veteran hurler primarily leans on his two fastballs, pairing them off against one another. This past season, specifically, the left-hander utilized his sinker 45.3% of the time, locating it in the lower half of the strike zone. In turn, he did the opposite with his four-seamer, whose usage sat at 28.2%, using it in the upper half of the zone.

That way, opposing hitters weren’t able to strictly sit on one specific pitch or area of the plate, keeping them on their toes throughout each at-bat. Once the count reached two strikes, his slider came into play and was thrown 51.7% during those situations, causing it to create the largest share of his strikeouts.

Overall, Chafin’s breaking ball remained his most reliable swing-and-miss weapon, resulting in a 54.6% whiff rate, a 55% strikeout rate and a 44% chase rate through 80 plate appearances.

Since Chafin declined his $5.25 million mutual option with Oakland earlier this winter, chances are he’ll be seeking a contract worth higher than that amount per season when the lockout concludes. Looking for a comparable contract, Kendall Graveman‘s three-year, $24-million contract that he signed with the Chicago White Sox might be the best example in this scenario.

In short, both of these relievers are the same age (31) and they each produced very similar fWAR ratings in 2021, 1.1 for Graveman and 1.4 for Chafin. Considering they’re both viewed as high-leverage arms, paired with their performances from last season, it’d make plenty of sense for them to receive identical deals.

If that were to be the case, and the soft-throwing lefty signed with New York, he’d join a talented group that already features Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo. Though it’d be wise to add another impact reliever to this mix, until then, these four pitchers would provide a strong starting point heading into the final few months of winter.

So while everyone waits for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be signed, which hopefully isn’t too far away, here’s to hoping the Mets enjoy a cheerful holiday season and can land Chafin in the not too distant future.

The post Mets Holiday Wish List: Andrew Chafin appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Before the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement expired earlier this month, the New York Mets made numerous splashes in free agency, including the signing of outfielder Starling Marte.

Reaching the free-agent market for just the second time in his career, Marte wasn’t without a team for very long as the Mets landed him on a four-year, $78-million contract. With the 33-year-old signed through the 2025 campaign, this organization is counting on him being able to help lead them beyond their current postseason drought, which stands at five seasons.

For starters, it’s no hidden secret the Mets’ offense faltered significantly throughout the 2021 season, as they failed to effectively provide their pitching staff with enough run support on a daily basis. Though Marte has long passed the age-30 threshold, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down any time soon and best displayed that aspect last season.

Despite splitting time between the Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins, the 6’1″ center fielder enjoyed plenty of success with both franchises, interestingly enough, resulting in one of the top statistical performances of his professional career.

Overall, Marte compiled 526 plate appearances in 120 games between the Athletics and Marlins, where he posted 12 home runs, 55 RBIs, a .310/.383/.458 slashing line, a 134 wRC+ score and a career-best 5.5 fWAR rating.

Just on these merits alone, adding the 2016 National League All-Star to New York’s lineup provides an obvious improvement from multiple different standpoints. But if we dig deeper, we’ll also likely discover that the long-time Pittsburgh Pirate could solve several key offensive issues that plagued this club in 2021.

Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Starting at the top, the Mets’ roster failed to consistently hit for contact as they finished tied for the seventh-lowest AVG (.239) and produced the 12th-lowest BABIP (.291) among all 30 teams in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

Granted, this wasn’t their most glaring offensive issue, however, it was one that largely prevented them from getting on-base at a high rate. As a result, this team earned the eighth-lowest wOBA (.307) and the 12th-lowest OBP (.315) amongst the rest of the majors.

When it comes to Marte, the right-hander has prided himself on serving as a reliable on-base weapon through the majority of his 10 major league seasons, and didn’t encounter any issues proving to be exactly that this past season.

Showcasing his stellar contact-generating ability, the Dominican native registered a .310 AVG and a .372 BABIP – the third-highest of his career – both of which finished in the top five among all qualified hitters in the majors. In turn, his on-base metrics soared through the roof, allowing him to create the best OBP (.383) and wOBA (.364) of his career.

Putting these impressive results into perspective, Marte’s high-contact tendencies have resulted in numerous successful performances when it comes to reaching base consistently, especially over his last three seasons.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

Aside from the 2017 and 2018 campaigns, as shown in the chart above, Marte’s rolling expected wOBA has largely remained far above the major league average line for most of his career. But in particular, he’s rarely ever stumbled into extended on-base slumps since 2019.

While May 2019 wasn’t kind to him, as his rolling xwOBA dropped off considerably, since then, it’s ranged consistently around .370. In 2021, it reached the highest it’s ever climbed before as it rose to a career-high .483.

In all likelihood, Marte will be slotted into either the first or second spot in New York’s lineup, positioning him ahead of the team’s biggest run producers, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Based on his remarkable on-base metrics, particularly from last season, chances are he’ll be able to create plenty of traffic on the bases in front of those two sluggers – something this club didn’t feature enough of previously.

Taking this topic even further, along with reaching base consistently, the former amateur free agent also possesses the skills to serve as an impact base runner.

Since 2013, Marte owns the second-most stolen bases (284) and the fifth-highest BsR – base running runs above average – (44.3) among all other qualified batters in the majors. Additionally, he’s also posted a speed score of at least 7.1 in six of his nine seasons during that same span.

Granted, the veteran righty isn’t the same player that averaged a 29.6 sprint speed in 2015 – which ranked in the 98th percentile in the majors. Having said that, his quickness can still provide a huge upside on the Mets’ roster moving forward, especially considering he boasted an 84th percentile sprint speed (28.4) in 2021.

Expanding on his results from last season, Marte finished with the highest BsR (12.3) and speed score (7.8) along with the most stolen bases (47) in the majors last season.

In comparison, New York recorded the third-lowest BsR (-13.5), were tied for the third-lowest speed score (3.7) and tied for the fifth-fewest stolen bases (54) amongst the rest of the competition.

Yes, that’s correct. Marte nearly swiped as many bags as the Mets did just by himself. But now with him under contract, there’s no question they’re about to become a much quicker squad in future seasons.

Paired with his on-base and base running abilities, the former Athletic also brings a decent amount of power to this offense, as he’s generated at least 12 home runs and a .450 slugging percentage in three of his previous four campaigns. But in the NL East division, there’s a pretty strong chance he could potentially crush close to 20 round-trippers per year.

Heading into next season, assuming it begins on time and without delay, New York’s batting order is slated to feature a fairly talented one-two punch atop of their lineup, with Marte and Brandon Nimmo setting the table for the rest of the group.

While the acquisition of Marte may not completely correct all of the club’s prior offensive concerns, at the very least, he should help transform them into a much more balanced group of hitters next season.

The post Starling Marte Could Be the Key to Unlocking Mets’ Offensive Potential appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Looking to acquire one of the top pitchers available in free agency, the New York Mets did just that when they agreed to a three-year, $130 million contract with starter Max Scherzer this offseason.

Pairing the future Hall of Famer with ace Jacob deGrom, who’s coming off an injury-shortened 2021 campaign, this lethal duo, assuming they remain relatively healthy, are expected to provide the Mets with a dominant one-two punch at the top of their starting rotation for many seasons to come.

Despite being set to enter his age-37 season in 2022, Scherzer remains at the top of his game, which was on full display with both the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers last season. Though he wasn’t able to advance past the National League Championship Series, his remarkable performance from the regular season helped him become a six-time finalist for the NL Cy Young Award.

Granted, the 6’3″ hurler didn’t come away with the fourth Cy Young Award of his career, however, he still enjoyed a memorable showing across two different franchises, where he posted a stunning 2.46 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, .184 OPP AVG, 34.1% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and a 5.4 fWAR through 179 1/3 innings pitched.

Comparing these stellar metrics against the rest of the majors, Scherzer finished with the second-best ERA, the second-highest strikeout rate, the fifth-highest fWAR rating and the sixth-best FIP among all starters who compiled at least 150.0 innings, according to FanGraphs.com.

With this in mind, there’s no question it’ll be very enjoyable to watch the eight-time all-star competing for the home team at Citi Field next season, whenever it begins. Among all five of his pitches, in particular, his mid-80s slider should generate plenty of excitement surrounding this fanbase as it’s acted as his most devasting weapon throughout the majority of his career.

Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Over the years, Scherzer has primarily relied on his mid-90s four-seamer, utilizing it at least 45 percent of the time in all 14 major league seasons. Having said that, his primary breaking ball has also served as a key aspect of his arsenal, especially when it comes to inducing swings and misses.

Even though the talented right-hander features multiple different strikeout offerings, his slider continued to perform as his most reliable option in 2021, as it created a 42.1% strikeout rate and a 48.5% whiff rate – both of which were the highest among all of his pitches – over 145 plate appearances.

Additionally, Scherzer’s breaking ball also recorded an impressive .143 AVG, .160 xAVG, .271 SLG, .300 xSLG, .188 wOBA, ,209 xwOBA and a 51.3% ground ball rate.

From this past season alone, there were tons of quality examples that perfectly showcased the veteran starter’s dominance with his slider. But among all of them, one of the most jaw-dropping moments took place during Game Three of the NLDS, where – now free agent – Kris Bryant laughably struck out on an outside pitch that clearly fooled him. Video courtesy of Rob Friedman/Pitching Ninja.

Max Scherzer, Filthy 88mph Slider…and Patented Spin K Strut. pic.twitter.com/tjBVk8Zc9G

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 12, 2021

As this clip displays, Scherzer’s slider frustrated opposing hitters all season long, as it performed as one of the top weapons in the sport. Backing up this claim, it finished tied with the 10th-best run value (-15) and tied for the 10th-highest whiff rate (48.5%) among all qualified pitches per 100 plate appearances, according to BaseballSavant.com.

How has the 2019 World Series champion been so successful with his breaking for all these years? Well, it certainly hasn’t been because of any dramatic vertical or horizontal movement – both of which ranked in the bottom third of the majors in 2021.

Surprisingly, at least in this era of the game, Scherzer has leaned on pinpoint accuracy involving his slider throughout his career. While it does own a respectable spin rate, averaging 2,273 RPMs last season, for the most part, his repeatable arm action when releasing all five of his pitches has played the biggest factor in allowing his primary strikeout offering to remain effective.

Here’s where Scherzer’s slider was located, against both left-handers and right-handers, in 2021:

Source: BaseballSavant.com

When facing righties, Scherzer positioned his slider on the outer half of the strike zone and in most cases, forced those same batters to chase off the plate. On the other hand, against lefties, his breaking ball would largely finish down on the inside corner, causing several players to be caught looking at strike three.

Historically, the former first-round selection’s breaking ball has been particularly dominant against right-handed hitters and it continued that same trend this past season, as it performed far better than anyone could’ve hoped for once again.

Utilizing his slider 38.6 percent of the time, Scherzer finished with an incredible .150 AVG, .169 xAVG, .286 SLG, .316 xSLG, .198 wOBA, .220 xwOBA, 39.1% strikeout rate, 48.0% whiff rate and a 51.3% GB rate through 138 plate appearances.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

Digging deeper into his dominance against righties, when the count reaches two strikes, Scherzer’s slider is virtually untouchable and was exactly that in 2021. In total, opposing hitters could only muster up a measly .098 AVG and a .084 xAVG, paired with a 63.5% strikeout rate and a 42.2% whiff rate, during those situations.

While he did allow a pair of home runs with two strikes against his slider, given that he hadn’t surrendered a single long ball of this variety since 2018, it’s probably safe to assume this shouldn’t transform into any kind of concern moving forward.

Even at this stage of his career, with his slider still performing at an elite level, Scherzer is expected to continue serving as a consistent swing-and-miss hurler during his tenure with the Mets. Though it’s unclear as to how many quality years he has remaining, at this rate, it doesn’t seem like the three-time Cy Young Award winner will be slowing down any time soon.

If New York’s pitching staff can stay healthy in 2022, which hasn’t been the case in previous seasons, they’re slated to feature a powerful rotation that’s headlined by deGrom, Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco – that’s a pretty potent trio, especially when it comes to the postseason.

With “Mad Max” signed through at least 2023 – his deal includes an opt-out after year two – this team should finally be able to snap its current five-year playoff drought. Or at least, that’s the goal.

The post Scherzer’s Elite Slider Should Be Mesmerizing for Mets Fans to Watch appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

With a new general manager running the show, in Billy Eppler, the New York Mets should be set to make numerous splashes in free agency this offseason, although they’ll be looking to do so without compromising their farm system.

Should be easy enough right? In theory, sure. But as this organization starts attempting to improve the roster, it’ll become critical to spend wisely and on the right pieces, or else they could be headed for another disappointing outcome in 2022.

Among the many positions this front office will need to address, third base has been a glaring hole for this franchise over the last several seasons, especially as of late. For the most part, J.D. Davis has occupied the starting role at the hot corner since 2020, unfortunately, he hasn’t played up to his high expectations thus far, signalling he likely won’t be the solution at that position.

Considering high-profile players like Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez and Matt Chapman are all expected to be available through free agency or trades this winter, there’s a pretty strong chance the Mets will be able to make a dramatic upgrade at third base in the coming months.

But the crucial question remains, who should they target? Well, with highly-touted prospects like Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio on the way, acquiring a superstar third baseman would undoubtedly delay both of their debuts at the major league level. Since those special days appear to be only a few seasons away, it might make more sense to pursue a short-term fix rather than a long-term one.

If that’s the case, veteran Eduardo Escobar should be at the top of New York’s wish list, as he’s considered one of the best available infielders among the second tier of free agents. Though he doesn’t feature elite status like the names listed above, the 32-year-old has largely been underrated for most of his professional career, namely the last four seasons.

Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Aside from a forgettable 202o campaign, where he posted a career-worst -0.5 fWAR rating over 54 games, Escobar has served as a fairly productive contributor since 2018, resulting in a fWAR rating of at least 3.0 in three of his last four seasons – not too shabby for a late-bloomer.

Set to enter his age-33 season in 2022, even at this stage of his career, the switch-hitting infielder could act as a reliable short-term option until Baty or Mauricio – or both perhaps – are ready to assume a full-time role in the majors. In the meantime, the Mets would almost certainly receive productive results from the 5’10” hitter, especially from the right side of the plate.

While only 160 of his 599 total plate appearances came as a right-hander in 2021, Escobar did his best to make the most out of every chance he received, as he recorded nine doubles, nine home runs, 25 RBIs, a .240 ISO, a 128 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .293/.338/.533 between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers.

Regardless of which side of the plate he’s stood on, the former Brewer hasn’t struggled to hit for power in recent years, which has seen him register at least 23 home runs and a .470 slugging percentage in three of the last four campaigns.

Most recently, Escobar showcased his slugging abilities numerous times in both Arizona and Milwaukee, resulting in 28 home runs, a .472 SLG percentage and a .219 ISO through 599 plate appearances. In comparison to the rest of the field, he finished tied with the seventh-most home runs, created the eighth-highest SLG percentage and the ninth-highest ISO among all third basemen, according to FanGraphs.com.

Paired with his power totals, the 2021 National League All-Star has also proven capable of remaining disciplined in the batter’s box – both sides of it. As a result, he’s never generated a strikeout rate that’s exceeded 21.0 percent, and further reduced his tendency to extend the strike zone this past season.

In 2020, Escobar produced a 35.2% chase rate and a 30.2% first-pitch swing percentage, both of which were near career-worst marks. But thanks to his improved patience, the veteran hitter was successful in lowering each of those metrics, causing him to record a career-best 28.8% chase rate and a 26.9% first-pitch swing percentage.

While he’s struggled against breaking balls and off-speed pitches in the past, the native of Venezuela has been exceptional when fastballs have come his way, as both a righty and a lefty, ever since his breakout performance in 2018.

Continuing his success in 2021, Escobar hit 20 his 28 home runs against heaters, while also creating a .265 AVG, .261 xAVG, .536 SLG and a career-high .513 xSLG over 240 batted-ball events. Thanks to this impressive showing, the potent switch-hitter has been able to record a .500 SLG percentage or higher in every season except for one (’20) since 2018.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

For a Mets’ offense that struggled mightily against fastballs this past season, as they finished with the fourth-lowest SLG percentage (.408) and the fifth-lowest xSLG percentage (.414) among all 30 teams, according to BaseballSavant.com, they’d certainly benefit from adding Escobar to the mix.

Defensively, the former amateur free agent is capable of playing at all four infield positions, with third base considered his most comfortable area. In addition, he’s also spent a brief time in the outfield over his 11 seasons in the majors, compiling 275 1/3 innings between all three locations.

As versatile as Escobar has been throughout his career, without question, third and second base are the two positions where he’s excelled the most. Though a Gold Glove Award probably isn’t in his future, he’s still capable of providing serviceable results at the hot corner, which saw him earn a respectable -1 OAA rating over 767 1/3 innings in 2021.

If he were needed to shift over to second base on a short-term basis, the right-handed fielder could prove to be very efficient in that type of role, as he performed to a career-best +3 OAA rating through 284 1/3 innings this past season – making him a fairly reliable defender at multiple different locations.

Financially, Escobar is coming off a three-year, $21 million contract that paid him $7.5 million in 2021. With that in mind, chances are he’s seeking a very similar deal this winter, likely one that earns him a sizeable raise as well.

From New York’s standpoint, if they were to land him on a three-year contract worth around $30 million, featuring a $10 million average annual value, that could allow the front office to address a major need while also still possessing enough financial capital to spend on other areas. Most notably, increasing their chances of re-signing Javier Baez, improving the starting rotation, bullpen and outfield.

So while acquiring a high-profile third baseman would be exciting, however, targeting a second-tier free agent could be much more worthwhile in terms of enjoying the best possible offseason for this franchise.

The post Eduardo Escobar Could Act as Short-Term Solution at Third Base appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

After failing to make the playoffs for a fifth straight season, the New York Mets find themselves in a very similar position once again this offseason and if they’re to end this current postseason drought, several roster improvements will be required, including the starting rotation.

As currently constructed, the Mets rotation is slated to feature Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Tylor Megill when the 2022 campaign begins. But given the recent health concerns involving deGrom, Carrasco and Peterson, paired with the poor second-half performance from Walker, this group could definitely benefit from adding another arm.

Hoping to acquire at least one starter this winter, at first, the front office was hopeful Noah Syndergaard could emerge into a much larger piece next season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, shortly after declining his $18.4 million qualifying offer, the 29-year-old signed a one-year, $21 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

Forced to move on without “Thor,” it’d still be wise for this team to set its sights fairly high in free agency as they search for another front-line starter. Luckily, as of now, there are a couple of available hurlers who meet that description in the open market, beginning with a future Hall-of-Famer.

Starting at the top of New York’s ideal wish list, Max Scherzer is someone who should immediately stand out to this organization as a top priority, especially considering his current reputation as one of the top pitchers in the sport.

Coming off his 14th season in the majors, Scherzer, who finished third in the 2021 National League Cy Young Award race, remains at the top of his game and could provide plenty of upside for any playoff contender in 2022. Based on his eight years of postseason experience, including two separate World Series appearances, he certainly knows what it takes to win at the highest level.

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Most recently, Scherzer displayed his dominance across two different franchises, the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers, this past season and nearly won the fourth Cy Young Award of his career. Despite falling short of this accolade, the eight-time All-Star still enjoyed another remarkable showing – one that helped him lead the Dodgers to the NLCS.

Dodging the effects of father time during his age-36 season, the 6’3″ hurler continued to defy logic as he posted an impressive 2.46 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, .184 OPP AVG and a 5.4 fWAR rating over 179 1/3 innings between Washington and Los Angeles.

Expanding on his stellar showing, opposing batters struggled mightily throughout most of the season to generate contact against Scherzer, resulting in a 33.8% strikeout rate, 29.7% chase rate and a career-best 34.1% whiff rate – ranking it in the 92nd percentile in the majors. Additionally, the right-hander also registered a 5.2% walk rate, his lowest percentage since 2019.

In comparison to the rest of the competition, the former first-round selection finished with the second-best ERA, the second-highest strikeout rate, the fourth-most strikeouts (236), the fifth-highest fWAR rating and the sixth-best FIP among all starters who compiled at least 150.0 innings, according to FanGraphs.com.

For anyone concerned about Scherzer’s age, at this moment, the 2019 World Series champion hasn’t shown any worrisome signs that’d suggest he’s starting to decline. Even in his mid-30s, the talented righty’s fastball hasn’t endured any major drop-offs regarding its velocity, which is usually the first warning signal for aging pitchers.

Putting this situation into perspective, the former National averaged 94.6 mph with his four-seamer from 2018-2020. As for this past season, it only experienced a minor decrease in velocity — if you can even describe it like that — as it averaged 94.3 mph.

But with Scherzer, velocity is only one key aspect of his primary fastball, which also features a remarkable amount of spin. In 2021, it produced an average spin rate of 2,436 RPMs, placing it in the 90th percentile across the majors.

Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Knowing the three-time Cy Young Award winner likely still has a few dominating seasons left in him, the possibilities he could accomplish if paired next to deGrom and Carrasco in Queens would be endless. Having said that, as fantastic as that would be, it could become challenging to pry him away from the west coast this offseason.

Financially, Scherzer will probably be searching for a lucrative short-term deal that pays him north of $30 million per season, projecting him to command a similar contract to the three-year, $102 million deal Trevor Bauer received last winter. Given the Mets’ other needs that must be addressed, paying that kind of price could be problematic no matter how beneficial it might be.

If Scherzer does prove to be unattainable for whatever reason, the next logical target management could shift to would likely be Robbie Ray, who recently won the 2021 American League Cy Young Award and is coming off a career year.

Following a disappointing stretch from 2018-2020, Ray returned to the Toronto Blue Jays on a one-year deal last offseason hoping to revitalize his playing career, and that’s exactly what happened. Thanks to some mechanical adjustments, spearheaded by pitching coach Pete Walker, the 30-year-old dramatically improved his command and didn’t fall victim to high amounts of walks like in previous seasons.

Paired with his stellar strikeout ability, the explosive left-hander dominated opposing hitters on the mound, allowing him to record career bests in ERA (2.84), xERA (3.60), walk rate (6.7%) and fWAR (3.9) over his 193 1/3 innings pitched.

Adding to his phenomenal showing, the 6’2″ hurler also led the majors in strikeouts (248) and created the fourth-highest strikeout rate (32.1%) among all qualified starters.

What’s even more intriguing about Ray, whose mid-90s fastball and a high-80s slider are both considered elite pitches, is that there’s still room to improve for the 2017 NL All-Star. If he can further develop his curveball, which was only utilized 6.0 percent in 2021, his arsenal could grow into three reliable offerings, potentially making him even more deceiving.

Though the former 12th-round pick is reportedly expected to command a deal that exceeds $100 million, given that Peterson is the lone left-hander in the Mets’ rotation, adding a front-line starter to the mix who throws from the left side could bode very well against left-handed heavy teams like the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers.

If all else fails, this club could circle back around to someone like Marcus Stroman, who earned a 3.4 fWAR rating through 179.0 innings this past season. At the very least, the 30-year-old, ground-ball specialist could continue serving as a model of consistency within the middle of the rotation.

With New York looking to spend considerably in free agency, as new general manager Billy Eppler mentioned in his opening press conference, it’s conceivable to believe they’ll be hunting the top names available over these next few months.

The post Mets Must Aim High With Next Pitching Target appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last several seasons, locating a reliable third baseman has been a major area of concern for the New York Mets and while they’ve yet to effectively fill that position, this offseason might act as their best opportunity to accomplish that feat.

Along with a star-studded free-agent class of shortstops, this winter’s market also features a handful of high-profile third basemen, both in free agency and on the trade block. While the Mets will surely explore every available option, linking up with an organization like the Oakland Athletics could become a very real possibility in the near future.

Despite possessing one of the lowest payrolls – approximately $100.3 million – in the majors this past season, the Athletics are reportedly expected to turn over their roster during these next couple of months as they attempt to significantly cut costs. In turn, multiple all-star players are slated to become available via trades, including Matt Chapman.

With Chapman just two seasons away from becoming eligible for free agency, paired with his salary increasing through arbitration, it’s clear that the 28-year-old is starting to become too expensive for Oakland, meaning the time has likely come for both sides to part ways.

For a franchise like the Mets, there’s no question they could benefit from acquiring a superstar third baseman, who’s capable of providing extra-base power and elite defense. Based on his 27 home runs, 72 RBIs and career-best +17 OAA rating, which placed him in the 99th percentile, in 2021, he’d instantly transform the club’s hot corner into a reliable position.

On the other hand, since top prospects like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos would probably be included in a package sent to the Athletics, there could be a high level of risk involved regarding any trade discussions around Chapman. Though he’s viewed as one of the top players at his position, his underlying results may make this potential move even risker.

Photo Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY

Despite enjoying an impressive performance in the slugging department this past season, Chapman continued to separate himself from the quality all-around hitter he was previously in his career. Unlike from 2018-2019, the right-hander has acted as just a one-dimensional contributor since then, earning him a career-worst 101 wRC+ score through 622 plate appearances in 2021.

Reaching new levels of concern during his latest performance, the 2019 American League All-Star’s home run totals were largely overshadowed by his inability to generate a sizeable amount of contact – leading to an alarming number of swings and misses.

After displaying flashes of these struggles throughout the shortened 2020 campaign, resulting in a 35.5% strikeout rate and a 36.2% whiff rate, Chapman remained on this troubling path and expanded on his bat-to-ball woes in the following season. As a result, he ended up posting the second-highest strikeout rate (32.5%) among all qualified third basemen, according to FanGraphs.com.

In addition, the former first-round selection also recorded a miserable 32.7% whiff rate, which ranked in the eighth percentile of the entire major leagues.

Even though Chapman isn’t prone to chasing outside the strike zone, as he produced a 22.9% chase rate in 2021, the majority of his swings and misses have been located within the zone as of late. As a result, the right-handed slugger witnessed his in-zone whiff rate climb to 27.6 percent this past season – an increase of 8.6 percent from ’19.

Unless the California State standout begins making considerably more contact inside the zone, especially against fastballs, chances are this area will continue to serve as a major weakness in future seasons. If that indeed proves to be true, then his strikeout totals are only likely to increase moving forward, potentially causing him to become an even larger liability as he inches closer to age-30.

Thanks to these swing-and-miss woes, similar to his plate discipline results, Chapman’s contact metrics also took a dramatic nosedive during his fifth campaign in the majors. While that’s never been considered a critical aspect of his craft, it’s something that was directly impacted by his inability to put balls in play consistently.

Proving to be a significant liability in this category, the former top prospect generated career-worsts in AVG (.210), xAVG (.207) and also finished with the second-lowest BABIP (.272) – created a .270 BABIP in ’19 – of his major league career.

In comparison, this disappointing showing saw him finish with the third-lowest xAVG, tied for the fourth-lowest AVG and with the 12th-lowest BABIP among all third basemen in the majors who earned at least 300 plate appearances.

Like with most hitters, Chapman has experienced his highs and lows throughout his five seasons in the majors, but what changed in 2021, was how long his hitting slumps lasted.

Prior to this past season, the California native would fall into brief dry spells at the plate, which would see his rolling xAVG drop slightly below the major league average line. But recently, due to his lack of consistent contact, his offensive struggles extended far beyond their usual length and also reached new levels of concern, too.

Source: BaseballSavant.com

To simplify this chart, in short, Chapman largely performed as a below-average hitter when he wasn’t hitting for extra bases in 2021 – that’s extremely problematic for someone who’s considered a middle-of-the-order weapon.

Taking these troubling factors into account, despite his encouraging 12.9% walk recent from a season ago, it remains to be seen if the talented third baseman will be able to sustain his current slugging metrics long-term given how much he struggles to create contact. Furthermore, based on his latest offensive results, adding the righty to New York’s lineup wouldn’t significantly move the needle forward from an overall standpoint.

If Chapman continues down this trajectory, even with his stellar defensive metrics, his unreliable offensive tendencies could potentially complicate any contract negotiations when that time comes around. Is that a situation the Mets want to put themselves in? Probably not.

With this in mind, it’d be wise to operate very cautiously while pursuing any sort of trade surrounding the three-time Gold Glove Award winner. There’s no question he’d be an improvement over the group that maintained the hot corner in Queens this past season, in saying that, acquiring him also might not permanently address this dire issue.

Considering fellow third basemen like Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager could each be attainable for this organization, choosing to circle back on Chapman, later on, might be the best course of action to take this winter.

The post Acquiring Matt Chapman Likely Wouldn’t Come Without Risk Involved appeared first on Metsmerized Online.