In addition to the Mets Spring Training Games that are being broadcast on SNY and WPIX, die-hard fans will also have access to Mets spring training games with no blackouts on MLB.tv which aren’t being broadcast in the Mets home market.

Eight additional available Mets broadcasts not being televised on SNY or WPIX can be watched live as follows:

Saturday, March 5 – Mets vs. Astros (Kissimmee)
Monday, March 7 – Mets vs. Cardinals (Jupiter)
Sunday, March 13 – Mets vs. Marlins (Jupiter)
Saturday, March 19 – Mets vs. Nationals (Viera)
Saturday, March 26 – Mets vs. Braves (Kissimmee)
Monday, March 28 – Mets vs. Cardinals (Jupiter)
Thursday, March 31 – Mets vs. Cubs (Las Vegas)
Friday, April 1 – Mets vs. Cubs (Las Vegas)

SNY and WPIX announced their spring training coverage for the Mets earlier this month.

The post Additional Mets Spring Training Broadcast Dates Not On SNY or WPIX appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

There were red flags pointing to Wheeler’s elbow injury in 2015

A Major League Pitcher is a fragile thing. An unnatural motion is repeated over and over again with great stress until, inevitably the elbow or shoulder wear down and/or break. As every pitcher is different, there is no exact science to determine what the breaking point will be or how much stress the arm can take before it breaks down.

I decided to take a look at MLB starting pitchers over the last 10 seasons to see if there was any correlation between the number of pitches per inning (the amount of stress on the arm before getting a rest between innings – much like a break between reps in a workout) and injury. I went into this little study with no preconceived notions or assumptions and decided I would look at simply the raw data. The benchmark I’m also using is 20 starts in a MLB season (although many of these starters also logged innings in relief and/or the minors in any given year).

Over 2006-2015 seasons, starters with 20+ starts were fairly consistent:

2015 – 124 pitchers
2014 – 130 pitchers
2013 – 128 pitchers
2012 – 125 pitchers
2011 – 132 pitchers
2010 – 126 pitchers
2009 – 117 pitchers
2008 – 128 pitchers
2007 – 122 pitchers
2006 – 115 pitchers

Number of pitches/inning for the median pitcher:

2015 – Jon Niese (Mets) – 15.85
2014 – James Shields (Royals) – 16.00
2013 – Wade Miley (Diamondbacks) – 15.98
2012 – Jake Peavy (White Sox) – 15.92
2011 – John Lannan (Nationals) – 15.91
2010 – Jon Lester (Red Sox) – 16.14
2009 – Chris Volstad (Marlins) – 16.36
2008 – Jamie Moyer (Phillies) – 16.16
2007 – Jeff Suppan (Brewers) – 16.17
2006 – Scott Olsen (Marlins) – 16.14

As illustrated, the Median has also been fairly consistent over the last 5 years.

The upper 10% efficiency:

2015 – 14.78/inning or less
2014 – 14.88/inning or less
2013 – 15.00/inning or less
2012 – 15.03/inning or less
2011 – 15.01/inning or less
2010 – 15.09/inning or less
2009 – 15.25/inning or less
2008 – 14.93/inning or less
2007 – 14.93/inning or less
2006 – 14.96/inning or less

As illustrated above, averaging roughly 15 pitches per inning gets a pitcher into at or near the top 10% in efficiency. That is 105 pitches to get through a full 7 innings and 120 pitches to get through a full 8 innings before yielding to the closer.

The lower 10% efficiency:

2015 – 17.01/inning or more
2014 – 17.12/inning or more
2013 – 17.43/inning or more
2012 – 17.19/inning or more
2011 – 17.13/inning or more
2010 – 17.05/inning or more
2009 – 17.56/inning or more
2008 – 17.48/inning or more
2007 – 17.36/inning or more
2006 – 17.14/inning or more

By the same token, averaging roughly 17 pitches/inning or more will put a pitcher at nearly the lowest 10% in terms of inefficiency. While an additional two pitches per inning may not seem like a lot, does the stress of throwing max effort an extra two times per inning before taking a break on the bench make a difference? Over 7 innings, that would be an extra 14 pitches. That is roughly 102 pitches to get through 6 innings, or approximately cramming a 7 inning start for an efficient pitcher into 6 innings with less rest. Does cramming this work into a shorter period create more stress that ultimately leads to breakdown?

From 2006 to 2015, 70 different pitchers had 127 instances of pitchers averaging 15 pitches per inning or less with 20 starts in the majors.
From 2006 to 2015, there were 200 instances of pitchers averaging 17 pitches per inning or more.

Is there any correlation between extreme efficiency or inefficiency and shoulder/elbow injuries during that season or the following year?

Seven of the 70 pitchers who hit the elite efficiency mark did it for the first time in 2015. Of the 63 pitchers where we can see if they had any shoulder/elbow issues the season after achieving elite efficiency, 14 (22%) became injured:

Chris Carpenter (TJ in 2007 after 1516 career innings – had prior elbow/shoulder issues), Tim Hudson (TJ in 2008 after 2017 career innings), John Smoltz (shoulder in 2008 after 3395 career innings – also prior TJ), Justin Duchscherer (shoulder after 426 career innings), Dallas Braden (shoulder after 491 career innings), Roy Halladay (shoulder in 2012 after 2531 innings through 2011), Jaime Garcia (shoulder ended 2012 after 495 career innings), Josh Tomlin (TJ ended 2012 after 341 career innings), Clayton Richard (shoulder ended 2013 after 773 career innings), Cliff Lee (elbow ended 2014 after 2156 career innings), Bronson Arroyo (TJ ended 2014 after 2364 career innings), Patrick Corbin (missed 2014 with TJ after 315 career innings), Martin Perez (TJ ended 2014 after 213 career innings), Henderson Alvarez (shoulder ended 2015 after 563 career innings), and Masahiro Tanaka – (partially town elbow in 2014 after 1315 innings in Japan through 2013, returned later that year).

Notice a pattern among the injuries among the elite efficiency pitchers? Half of them had racked up significant mileage in excess of 1300 innings before suffering an injury during or after an elite season. Of the 7 pitchers that didn’t have excess mileage, 5 of the injuries were shoulder related. Only two pitchers that didn’t have a ton of mileage on their arms suffered Tommy John after an efficient season.

As there were pitchers who hit the efficiency list more than once, there were 120 instances where we have elite efficiency and we were able to see the impact that same or the following year. A few on the list also logged in a ton of innings over long careers before going down. When looking at the following season effect, we have a shoulder/elbow injury rate the following year dropping to just 12%. The Tommy John rate following an elite efficiency season was just 4%.

If the 12% shoulder/elbow injury rate holds true for the 2016 season, we can expect two injuries among the 14 pitchers who are returning in 2016 and achieved elite efficiency (Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, John Lackey, Mike Leake, Hisashi Iwakuma, Phil Hughes, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Cory Kluber, Erasmo Ramirez, Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, and Masahiro Tanaka). Two of the 16 pitchers who achieved the elite mark in 2015 (Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle) have retired. An injury among any of the above is also much more likely to be shoulder related if historical patters hold true.

In reviewing the inefficient pitchers, there were 127 pitchers who made at least 20 starts. How many ended up with shoulder or elbow issues that were either shut down that very season or missed time the following year? 30 of these pitchers ended up injured, which is a 24% rate of injury. If we were to take this on a per-instance rate, there were 32 injuries after 187 instances from 2006-2014 where we saw the effect the following year, which is a 17% injury rate. We’ve already seen the effect of the inefficient 2015 seasons on Lance Lynn who will miss 2016 with Tommy John, Joe Kelly who was shut down at the end of 2015 with shoulder issues, and Nathan Eovaldi who had 2015 end early with elbow trouble – if we were to include these three injuries, we’d be at 18%.

The difference in injury to the individual pitcher isn’t much (22% vs 24%), but half of the pitchers who were injured following elite efficiency years had significant mileage. We also see an uptick in total injury instance the following year on a per-instance basis (12% vs 17%). Where we do see a huge injury jump is the injury rate among pitchers who have been highly inefficient for two or more seasons. 38% (18 of 47) pitchers who have been highly inefficient in more than 1 season in which they’ve made 20 or more starts have ended up with shoulder/elbow issues the same or following year:

Scott Kazmir (shoulder), John Maine (shoulder), Edinson Volquez (elbow), Gil Meche (shoulder), Doug Davis (elbow), Kyle Davies (shoulder), Daisuke Matsuzaka (elbow), Tom Gorzelanny (elbow), Phil Hughes (shoulder), Danny Duffy (elbow), Chad Billingsley (elbow), Drew Pomeranz (biceps/elbow), Mike Pelfrey (shoulder/elbow), Felix Doubront (shoulder), Matt Moore (elbow), C.J. Wilson (elbow), Nathan Eovaldi (elbow), and Lance Lynn (elbow) all had issues after averaging 17 pitches/inning or greater 2x or more while making 20+ starts.

If a 38% injury rate among pitchers who have been highly inefficient on more than one occasion and were inefficient the previous year holds true, we can expect to see 2 of the 6 pitchers who reached this status go down in 2016. Lance Lynn was one of the six and will miss all of 2016 following had Tommy John. Who else is in the danger zone for 2016?

• Nathan Eovaldi (Yankees) – his 2015 season ended early with elbow trouble (614 career innings).
• Danny Duffy (Royals) – he’s already had Tommy John once (443 career innings).
• Ian Kennedy (Royals) – he just signed for 5 years, $70 million (1234 career innings).
• Yovanni Gallardo (free agent) – can this be a factor in his lack of a signing? (1473 career innings)
• Hector Santiago (Angels) – he also had his innings load jump 27% over 2014 (532 career innings).

Two of the above five have already had elbow issues. Two more are at or near innings levels where even elite efficiency pitchers have broken down. One saw an increased workload at higher stress levels.

So how does our Mets staff look and how have their pitch efficiency been over the last few years?

Matt Harvey:

2015 – 14.78
2013 – 15.12
2012 – 16.48 (in 10 starts)

Jacob deGrom:

2015 – 15.58
2014 – 15.93

Noah Syndergaard:

2015 – 15.87

Steven Matz:

2015 – 16.15

Bartolo Colon:

2015 – 13.90
2014 – 14.88
2013 – 14.59
2012 – 14.05
2011 – 15.47

Zack Wheeler:

2014 – 17.85
2013 – 17.28 (in 17 starts)

Notice something interesting? I was using 20 starts as a barometer, a benchmark that Wheeler did not make in 2013. However, in his 17 starts he was in excess of 17 pitches/inning. Remember the little observation that pitchers who had two or more seasons with a lot of starts and extreme inefficiency had a 38% injury rate right after an inefficient season? Wheeler’s injury risk was a blinking red light. Then again, Harvey was just above that 15 pitch/inning mark when he went down in 2013 (after a season where he was pushing the 16.5 mark in 2012).

I’m not a professional statistician, but I think you’d agree that this is an interesting observation on the outliers when it comes to starting pitching… the most efficient starters get hurt at a much lower rate and they rarely have Tommy John issues the year following an efficient workload (which bodes well for Matt Harvey). Those that are repeatedly inefficient are much more likely to succumb to injury – which would suggest that Wheeler should focus on pounding the strike zone and get quicker outs.

The post Pitching Efficiency Outliers: Who’s At Risk For Injury In 2016 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Like many others in Panic City, I was none too thrilled with the Mets acquisition of Alejandro De Aza last week. As I’ve looked at the roster and looked at the player, I’ve tried to wrap my brain around exactly what I was feeling and why this move bothered me the way it has.

On the surface, De Aza isn’t a bad player. He’s a complimentary player and for all intents and purposes, he is simply a replacement over Kirk Nieuwenhuis on the roster. In a vacuum, it would be hard to make the argument that De Aza over Nieuwenhuis isn’t an upgrade, because it certainly is.

If you look at the lineup as it currently stands, you don’t see any glaring holes with the exception of center field which is a virtual unknown quantity at this point. While we lost Daniel Murphy’s bat in the lineup, he has been replaced by the switch-hitting Neil Walker who has very similar offensive numbers. Murphy has a career .755 OPS to Walker’s .769. Murphy hits more doubles, but Walker hits more home runs and also improves the team defensively.

There are other questions, of course – some bigger than others. Will Lucas Duda be a more consistent middle of the order presence in 2016? Throwing error aside in Game 5, he’s become a very solid defender at first base and has averaged 28 HR and 82 RBI the past two seasons.

Will David Wright be able to stay on the field for 135-140 games? Can he still provide the offensive production we’ve come to expect from him moving forward? We will see, but now that we have Asdrubal Cabrera to play shortstop full time, it allows Wilmer Flores to slide into a super-utility role and cover third base whenever he is needed while also providing coverage at second and short when Walker and Cabrera need a day off. I’d expect to see Wilmer getting 400 or more at-bats even though he won’t have a full-time position.

Will Michael Conforto take the next step in his evolution and hit LHP as an everyday player? I think the answer will be a resounding yes. Conforto profiles as a future middle of the order bat and I don’t see any reason why he can’t bat at least .285 while hitting 20-25 home runs in 2016. He showed in Game 4 that he can crush the ball with the best of them and he’s strong enough to hit it out of Citi even when he gets fooled.

Can Travis d’Arnaud finally have that full healthy breakthrough season and avoid the DL in 2016? If the Mets need to lean heavily on Kevin Plawecki again, will his bat show some significant improvement in his second season as the backup to TDA? Will we see d’Arnaud getting some time at first base against left-handed pitchers when Duda is given the day off?

I still keep going to center field as the biggest concern, mostly because we had an opportunity to really address it this offseason and I’m not sure we resolved anything there. Which Juan Lagares will show up next season? Will it be the Lagares we saw in 2014 that earned him the contract extension, or will it be the one that regressed in 2015? Were it not for the Lagares regression in 2015, we would not have traded for Cespedes. I do understand the reasoning behind the De Aza signing – he was brought in on a one-year deal to challenge Lagares and to be able to provide some replacement player production to hold down the fort until mid-season when the Mets could determine if they needed to acquire another big bat for the postseason stretch run. In a vacuum, I get the move. In a vacuum, I understand the move. In a vacuum, it’s a move that makes sense.

So why is this move not sitting well with me?

I, like many of you that are reading this, do not believe that the team’s financial difficulties are over. We were fed the company line that when fans returned to the park, the payroll would rise accordingly. And after a World Series appearance and the prospect of defending our National League title in 2016, I guess I expected to see a more aggressive approach. If not now, then when?

I understand that baseball is a business and that businesses are in business to make money. I’m also not suggesting that we spend money just for the sake of spending money. But we basically had two main objectives this offseason and that was to improve the bullpen and address center field.

The Mets – at least so far – also opted not to significantly upgrade the bullpen with any of the top-tier options that were out there. We have our shut down closer in Jeurys Familia, but we struggled all year long to find a reliable bridge to him.

Jerry Blevins was re-signed and he was excellent in an extremely small sample size before his season ended in April. But he’s also a pitcher who had a 4.87 ERA in 2014. Josh Edgin is a big question mark after Tommy John surgery. Jenrry Mejia is out for half the season. Rafael Montero is completely unproven in the majors and untested in the bullpen. Addison Reed and his 4.01 career ERA will be returning next season and could earn $6 million in arbitration. He pitched well after being acquired, but he’s still the same player that was demoted to the minors in 2015 due to ineffectiveness and was ultimately waived by the Diamondbacks. At this point, he’s hardly a proven commodity to be our second shut down reliever. Hansel Robles pitched well, but he’s also not that proven second guy. Carlos Torres? Logan Verrett? Josh Smoker? Sean Gilmartin?

If the team’s financial difficulties were truly behind them, wouldn’t they have gone after the top setup man on the free agent market in Darren O’Day with a little more gusto? I would like to think so. Not only has O’Day been incredibly consistent, he walks very few batters and his pitching style is a complete contrast to the Mets flame throwing starters and he would keep opposing batters off balance before yielding to the closer. The $31 million contract over four years for O’Day, shouldn’t have been a bank-breaker for a New York team with a sold out stadium, rising TV ratings, and a healthy financial situation. O’Day should have been tops on their wish list and he was well worth the risk.

Did the Mets make a run at Ryan Madson? Madson has more risk given his injury history, but he’s also highly effective (when healthy) and he could have been had for less money than O’Day. He shouldn’t have been out of the budget. The Mets weren’t even in on Joakim Soria according to reports which was another head-scratcher. He could have also been signed as a setup man without hindering the payroll budget and he would have also served as a second closer.

I don’t get it. We basically were looking to accomplish two significant goals this Winter and we seemingly tip-toed our way around it with the same financial hesitancy we’ve become so accustomed to over the last six years. This in spite of record attendance, ratings, merchandising and revenue increases.

The Mets had the opportunity to strengthen a weakness without breaking the bank or adversely impacting future payroll budgets. The Mets had the opportunity to strengthen a weakness without having to forfeit a draft pick. The Mets had the opportunity to strengthen a weakness during a 3-4 year window when our lights-out rotation is still young and very affordable.

I still feel good about the season heading into 2016. Thankfully the NL East is looking like the weakest division in the league and the Nationals haven’t made any significant improvements. We have our dominating rotation which keeps us in the hunt. We have a pretty solid lineup even though we could have done more at center field.

However, I do feel that we struck out royally (pun intended) by not acquiring one of those top available setup relievers that would have taken our bullpen from good to dangerous. Buster Olney and Jon Heyman both recently chided the Mets for lacking the aggression you typically see from any team coming off a World Series appearance.

What this offseason has shown me is that the Mets’ financial difficulties are still not a thing of the past. And as long as the Wilpons remain in charge, there’s probably no hope that will ever change. Too bad for baseball. Too bad for us.

The post Why Latest Mets Moves Don’t Sit Well With Me appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

With Bartolo Colon coming back for a third season with the Mets, Big Sexy will continue his climb up Major League Baseball’s record books as a Met.  He’s also making a climb up all-time lists with the Mets as well.

All-Time MLB Rankings:

Wins – 76^th with 218

Losses – 146^th with 154

Career Starts – 69^th with 467

Innings – 136^th with 2,980.2

Hits allowed – 120^th with 3,029

Earned Runs allowed – 79^th with 1,314

HR allowed – 27^th with 355

Walks – 194^th with 856

Strikeouts – 53^rd with 2,237

Total Batters Faced – 125^th with 12,588

All-Time Mets Rankings:

Wins – 35^th with 29

Losses – 49^th with 26

Games Started – 40^th with 62

Innings – 48^th with 397

Hits allowed – 41^st with 435

Earned Runs – 45^th with 182

Strikeouts – 47^th with 287

Total Batters Faced – 50^th with 1661

Colon turned down higher offers to re-sign with the Mets. “I’ve had a great experience in New York,” Colon, said on Friday. “The fans are great, being part of the postseason was great. I’ll do anything Terry wants me to do this year, start or relieve. I just want to help us get back to the World Series.”

The post Big Sexy is Back and He’s Moving On Up appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Washington Nationals continued to plummet on Friday, dropping under .500 after a 10-3 loss to the last place Milwaukee Brewers.

Things look much bleaker for the Nats, who will now need to pick up nine games on the Mets over the next 38 games in order for the Amazins to lose control of their own destiny prior to the final Showdown at Citi Field on October 2-4 to wrap up the season.

What? The Mets have a five-game lead after Friday night’s victory over the Rockies. How can it be nine games?

As long as the Mets aren’t four games back heading into the October 2nd game, they are in complete control of their destiny. They can be three back and still sweep the Nationals to force a one game playoff. Right now they are five ahead. The Nationals would have to pick up nine games on the Mets in order to lock them out before that final series.

The much more likely scenario is that the Mets will have locked out the Nationals prior to the final weekend series and that the starting rotation can be rested and set for the playoffs. This being said, we all know what happened in 2007 and 2008.

No lead is safe and until the division is signed, sealed, and delivered – the Nationals pose a very dangerous threat, no matter what their record is showing. They have a dangerous (even if underperforming) rotation and they have a potent (if at times impotent) lineup including the frontrunner for the NL MVP hitting in the number three spot.

I don’t think we’ll collapse by any means. I’m counting down the Magic Number (currently at 37), but there is no time to rest until the division is won.

But I’ll tell you this – I’m looking to playoff baseball at Citi Field this October.

The post Nationals Are Running Out Of Time As Mets Keep Rolling appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

It is now Playoffs or Bust time for the Mets and the latest baseball odds have the team’s chances of winning the World Series in the top five of all MLB teams.

With the team sitting on a 4.5 game lead and the Magic Number down to 40 entering play on August 19th, making the playoffs is the only option or else the 2015 season will go down as another collapse.

I’m not trying to be overly dramatic, nor do I think that this team will have their season go the way of the 2007 or 2008 squads. But if this team, with its pitching, revamped offense, and struggles of the Nationals, isn’t playing in the NL Division Series, this won’t be remembered as season of improvement or a season of a team on the verge – this will be remembered as a team that squandered the opportunity that was firmly in their grasp.

This is a team that’s poised to go deep into the playoffs. They have the potential to win the World Series. And while I won’t be satisfied with a first round exit, even being swept in an October playoff series wouldn’t be viewed as a failure.

Barring an act of God, the St. Louis Cardinals will be playing the Wild Card winner and the Mets would be left to face the winner of the National League West, most likely the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Losing to Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in a short series isn’t anything to be ashamed of – and to be fair – no team wants to face the Mets rotation, either.

So where do your feelings stand? Would you still consider this season a success if the Mets failed to make the postseason?What about if they make the postseason and fail to advance beyond their first round?

For now, the Mets are in first place and looking good. So let’s enjoy this run, keep the pedal to the metal, and whatever other cliché comes to mind. Let’s Go Mets!!!

The post It’s Playoffs or Bust for the Amazins appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

While Terry Collins said his mapped out plan to manage the innings of Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard is under lock and key, I think I’ve picked the lock.

I’ve mapped out the remaining 53 games and, barring injury, weather, or any other setbacks, I’ve figured out how the Mets can manage the remaining schedule, keep all the pitchers in the rotation, and give everyone five days between starts down the entire stretch.

Starting with Friday’s game against the Rays, the current rotation is running Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Matt Harvey.

With the off day on August 6th, everyone is getting an extra day of rest going into the weekend this time around the rotation.

The Mets have off days on August 17th, August 20th, September 3rd, September 17th, and September 28th. All starters will have an extra day by virtue of the calendar.

I’m expecting to see spot starters on August 12th against the Rockies, August 26th against the Phillies, and September 1st against the Phillies.

The spot start on the 12th will be between Harvey and deGrom’s turn in the rotation. Jacob is getting an extra day before his start on the 7th as a result of the off day, but by inserting a spot starter against the Rockies on this day, he (as well as the rest of the guys behind him) get an extra day. With the off days on the 17th and 20th, everyone is getting an extra day of rest. There are no scheduled off days between August 21st and September 2nd, so a spot start on August 26th after deGrom’s start gives Noah an extra day of rest. Another spot start on September 1st also gives Syndergaard another extra day.

As long as Steven Matz can come back to action in mid-September, I’m looking for him to join the rotation as the sixth man when the rotation would turn around to another time when the Mets would again be looking for a “spot start” on September 9th in a crucial game against the Nationals (ahead of Bartolo Colon). The rotation would then cycle through with six guys for the duration.

Based on the above scenario, we would be looking at 10 starts left for Syndergaard (which could be cut to 9 if the Mets clinch before the final weekend). Harvey, deGrom Niese, and Colon would have 9 remaining starts, and Matz would have 4 starts. Harvey and deGrom can be cut back to 8 should the Mets clinch before the final series.

The series in Washington against the Nationals on September 7-9 would map out to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz. Should the division still be up for grabs the final weekend of the season, the Mets would be lined up to drop the hammer with Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard to battle for the division head to head against the Nationals.

Of course, clinching the division before the final weekend with the Nats allows the Mets to set up the rotation how they want it for the playoffs.

Nine more starts for Harvey and deGrom projects to between 54-63 more innings (based on between 6-7 innings per start). Ten more starts for Syndergaard projects to another 60-70 innings. These regular season totals can be reduced should the Mets clinch before October 2nd. Should the Mets clinch before October 2nd, the team would be able to set their rotation to roll Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz right on through the postseason.

Here is my map – let’s see how close I am to the actual plan:

8/8 – Syndergaard vs. Rays
8/9 – Colon vs. Rays
8/10 – Niese vs. Rockies
8/11 – Harvey vs. Rockies
8/12 – Spot starter vs. Rockies
8/13 – deGrom vs. Rockies
8/14 – Syndergaard vs. Pirates
8/15 – Colon vs. Pirates
8/16 – Niese vs. Pirates
8/17 – off day
8/18 – Harvey vs. Orioles
8/19 – deGrom vs. Orioles
8/20 – off day
8/21 – Syndergaard vs. Rockies
8/22 – Colon vs. Rockies
8/23 – Niese vs. Rockies
8/24 – Harvey vs. Phillies
8/25 – deGrom vs. Phillies
8/26 – Spot starter vs. Phillies
8/27 – Syndergaard vs. Phillies
8/28 – Colon vs. Red Sox
8/29 – Niese vs. Red Sox
8/30 – Harvey vs. Red Sox
8/31 – deGrom vs. Phillies
9/1 – Spot starter vs. Phillies
9/2 – Syndergaard vs. Phillies
9/3 – off day
9/4 – Colon vs. Marlins
9/5 – Niese vs. Marlins
9/6 – Harvey vs. Marlins
9/7 – deGrom vs. Nationals
9/8 – Syndergaard vs. Nationals
9/9 – Matz vs. Nationals
9/10 – Colon vs. Braves
9/11 – Niese vs. Braves
9/12 – Harvey vs. Braves
9/13 – deGrom vs. Braves
9/14 – Syndergaard vs. Marlins
9/15 – Matz vs. Marlins
9/16 – Colon vs. Marlins
9/17 – off day
9/18 – Niese vs. Yankees
9/19 – Harvey vs. Yankees
9/20 – deGrom vs. Yankees
9/21 – Syndergaard vs. Braves
9/22 – Matz vs. Braves
9/23 – Colon vs. Braves
9/24 – Niese vs. Reds
9/25 – Harvey vs. Reds
9/26 – deGrom vs. Reds
9/27 – Syndergaard vs. Reds
9/28 – off day
9/29 – Matz vs. Phillies
9/30 – Colon vs. Phillies
10/1 – Niese vs. Phillies
10/2 – Harvey vs. Nationals
10/3 – deGrom vs. Nationals
10/4 – Syndergaard vs. Nationals

If it comes down to needing the final weekend to make the postseason, we will be lined up to have the horses we want.

The post Mapping Out the Mets Rotation to October appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

This will certainly serve as fodder for debate between the “Stand Pat” crowd and the “Do Something” crowd, but here is one little factoid that cannot be disputed…

As long as the Mets stay within three games of the Washington Nationals, they hold their post-season destiny in their hands.

Why is that?

As long as the Mets stay within that three game striking distance of Washington entering into the final series of the season, they control their own fate.

The final series of the season is on October 2nd – 4th against the Nationals at Citi Field.

While it certainly wouldn’t be an ideal situation, as long as the Mets go into that final series no more than three games out they’ll still be in a position to sweep the Nationals and force a one-game playoff on October 5th for the division title and a playoff berth.

Of course if the Mets fail to win the division, there’s a chance they can qualify for one of the two wild cards and if they make it they’ll have to play a one-game playoff to advance to the NLDS. So obviously, winning the division has some huge advantages.

Entering Sunday’s game tomorrow, the Mets are only two games behind the Nationals. Their postseason odds are back up to 39% after being down to just 20% on July 4th.

They’re not out of it yet. And in fact, they’re actually in their best position to make the playoffs since June 19th. Things are not nearly as bleak as some in the media would have you believe. So keep watching, keep rooting, and most of all, keep believing. LGM

The post Mets Still In Striking Distance For NL East Title appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Who’s Hot:

Jayce Boyd, Las Vegas – Boyd was riding a 6-game hitting streak entering into action on July 5th, batting .381 (8 for 21) with 3 doubles and 4 RBI over that span.

Alex Castellanos, Las Vegas – The Vegas outfielder has hit safely in 5 of his last 6 games through July 4th with 5 multi-hit games. Over this stretch, he’s hit .440 (11 for 25) with 5 runs scored, 4 doubles, 2 HR, and 5 RBI as well as 2 walks.

Darin Gorski, Las Vegas – In his last 2 starts, the 7th round pick of the 2009 draft has gone 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA. In 12.2 innings, he’s allowed 12 hits while walking 4 and striking out 7.

Chase Huchingson, Las Vegas – Since being promoted from Binghamton, Huchingson hasn’t allowed an earned run in 9 appearances. In Vegas, he’s pitched 10 innings while allowing 5 hits, 5 walks, and striking out 10.

Dario Alvarez, Binghamton – In Alvarez’s last 9 appearances, he hasn’t allowed an earned run. Over this span, he’s pitched 10 innings while allowing just 2 hits, 3 walks, and striking out 14.

Michael Fulmer, Binghamton – In Fulmer’s last 5 starts for Bingo, he has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 0.59 in 30.1 innings. Over this stretch, he’s allowed 19 hits while walking 5 and striking out 34 with a WHIP of 0.79.

Who’s Not:

Dillon Gee, Las Vegas – Gee has fallen hard in the desert. In two starts for Vegas, he’s 1-1 with an ERA of 13.50. In 9.1 innings, he’s allowed 20 hits while walking 3 and striking out 8.

Brandon Nimmo, Binghamton – Over Nimmo’s last nine games, he’s managed just 3 singles, hitting .091 (3 for 33) while striking out 13 times.

The post Who’s Hot, Who’s Not: Las Vegas and Binghamton appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

On April 27th, the Mets had a record of 15-5 and were eight games ahead of the Washington Nationals.

According to the Postseason Probabilities chart on mlb.com, the Mets had a 68% chance of making the postseason, which was their high water mark for the season.

After being swept by the Atlanta Braves, the Mets were at their season’s low with now just a 28% chance of making the postseason.

On April 27th, the only two teams who had a better postseason probability than the Mets were the Los Angeles Dodgers (94%) and the St. Louis Cardinals (71%). On June 20th, the Mets were trailing the Cardinals (97%), Dodgers (86%), Nationals (74%), Cubs (65%), Pirates (64%), and Giants (51%).

There is still plenty of season left to go, and with a 36-35 record, just 1.5 games behind the Nationals, the division and postseason is very much within reach.

However, six runs in the last five games, squandering outstanding performances from aces Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, and consistently poor defense isn’t going to cut it. The question is, who is going to step up?

Let’s be clear – the Mets are in a much better place than they’ve been for years. They’re just a big bat away from being very, very dangerous. Their postseason odds are at 28%. Where have they been on June 21 in recent years?

2014 – 3%
2013 – 1%
2012 – 24%

The Mets never reached above 16% during the 2014 campaign. That was their high water mark on April 30 when their record stood at 15-11.

The last time the Mets were above 28% was during the 2013 season when on April 8 they had a 5-2 record.

The 2012 team made it as high as 40% on July 3, when the team had a 44-37 record. They were sitting 3.5 games behind the Nationals in the East.  It’s hard to remember that the team was seven games above .500 that late in the season in recent years, but they were.

The Mets eventually ran out of gas in 2012 and finished with a 74-88 record, 24 full games behind the Nationals and 14 games out in the wildcard.

After the collapses in 2007 and 2008 and the freefall in 2012, is it really any surprise that all the fan enthusiasm over this season’s 15-5 start has already been replaced with gloom and the expectation of another deflating collapse and disappointing year?

It’s up to ownership and the front office to change the perception. Too often there’s been a lot of lip service and not nearly enough accompanying action.

The quick answer might be to pull the trigger on a trade, but who are we going to get to spark the offense and solidify the defense? The available options don’t seem to fit any of the Mets’ needs.

And nobody is interested in giving away one of our golden arms just to roll the dice on a one or two year rental.

The odds may not be in our favor right now, but we’re still very much in the hunt. The question is, what happens next?

The post Mets Postseason Odds Down to Season Low 28% appeared first on Metsmerized Online.