After losing three straight games — two of which coming at the hands of the division rival Braves — the Mets picked up a huge win Thursday night. Pete Alonso went 5-for-5 with a home run and six runs driven in, tying the record for most home runs by a National League rookie (39 HR — 2017 Cody Bellinger). Perhaps even more impressive, Amed Rosario went 5-for-6 with three extra-base hits, also tagging on four runs scored.

In fact, Amed Rosario is the youngest shortstop (23 years and 268 days) to get 5+ hits — including 2+ doubles and at least one triple — in a single game since Joe Cronin (22 years and 325 days) did so on September 2nd, 1929.

Since the All-Star Break, Rosario has elevated his game on a drastic scale:

• PA: 129
• HR: 3
• RBI: 8
• AVG: .366
• OBP: .395
• SLG: .553
• wOBA: .395
• wRC+: 150

The only qualified shortstop with a higher weighted runs created plus than Rosario during the second half is Xander Bogaerts (159) of the Boston Red Sox. In the first half, Rosario’s 87 wRC+ put him in a tie alongside Adalberto Mondesi for the 19th best wRC+ amongst qualified major league shortstops (26 total). Now, he’s keeping up with the best of the best.

One thing Rosario has been instituting on a more regular basis in the second half is an abbreviated leg-kick, which has had many positive effects thus far.

May

Post ASB (photos via Baseball Savant)

For one, Rosario has been able to square up the ball at a higher exit velocity:

• 1st half: 89.6 mph
• 2nd half: 90.6 mph

Most importantly, in simplifying his leg-kick, he has enhanced his ability to make contact with pitches located inside the strike-zone.

• 1st half: 85.0 Z-Contact%
• 2nd half: 96.6 Z-Contact%

He’s also having increased levels of success off of fastballs:

• 1st half: 1.22 wFB/C
• 2nd half: 2.27 wFB/C

and sliders:

• 1st half: -3.99 wSL/C
• 2nd half: 1.41 wSL/C

Since returning from the All-Star Break, Rosario has been 2.27 runs above average per 100 fastballs thrown, a vast improvement upon his first half mark, and he’s no longer a bad slider hitter (that’s one fewer weakness for the pitcher to exploit).

The Mets, who are a mere two games out of a playoff spot, have little room for error.

The post Amed Rosario’s Amazin’ Run appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

36. That’s the humiliating number of saves the Mets are on pace to blow this season. No team has ever blown more than 34 saves in a single season dating back to 2002, the year FanGraphs started compiling blown saves data. Of the nine teams to blow 30 saves or more, only one of them qualified for the postseason (the 2016 San Francisco Giants, who blew 30 saves, made it the playoffs through the NL Wild Card, eventually falling at the hands of the Cubs in the NLDS).

The average number of wins for a team to blow 30 saves (2002-18) is 74. Only one team in major league history has ever made it to the playoffs with a losing record — the 1981 Royals. It’s worth noting that there was a strike that season and over 700 games were canceled. Here’s where the Mets’ bullpen stands in other statistical categories…

• ERA: 5.47 (third highest in the MLB; would be the highest ERA ever recorded by a Mets bullpen in the last half-century).
• xFIP: 5.02 (second highest)
• BB/9: 4.36 (sixth highest)
• WHIP: 1.53 (fourth highest)

Simply put, it doesn’t get much worse than that. Among the eight Mets’ relievers to register 10 IP this season, only two of them have earned run averages below four: Edwin Diaz (3.74) and Seth Lugo (2.36). Perhaps most disappointing of all, Jeurys Familia, who was just placed on the IL due to a shoulder injury, has pitched to the tune of an atrocious 7.81 ERA. He’s given up 24 earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched, having also blown four saves. Last year, Familia conceded 25 earned runs in 72 IP. Although Diaz has been one of the better relievers for the Mets this season, he’s come nowhere close to meeting expectations.

The Mets parted with three talented prospects in order to pry Diaz from the Seattle, most notably their No. 6 overall pick, outfielder Jarred Kelenic, as well as RHP Justin Dunn and RHP Gerson Bautista. New York also received Robinson Cano and his large contract from the Mariners.

After finishing second in the MLB with 3.5 fWAR last season, Diaz has regressed drastically in 2019. Currently, he is tied with ten other relief pitchers for 44th in the majors with a 0.5 fWAR. In fact, Robert Gsellman (0.6 fWAR) and Seth Lugo (0.8 fWAR) have both been more valuable than Diaz based on wins above replacement. Diaz is already one blown save short from matching his 2018 total (4) with 90 games still remaining. While some blame can be directed towards Mets’ skipper Mickey Callaway, who has repeatedly unsuccessfully called upon Edwin Diaz to pitch in high leverage situations on back-to-back days (5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, and 8 K), Diaz is most responsible for his struggles, especially as of late…

His stats from 5/18/19 – 6/15/19:                 

• 13 IP
• 19 H
• 3 BB (2.08 BB/9)
• 20 K (13.85 K/9)
• 8 ER (5.54 ERA)
• 3 BS
• 5 SV

His stats from 3/28/19 – 5/11/19:

• 15.2 IP
• 12 H
• 5 BB (2.87 BB/9)
• 25 K (14.36 K/9)
• 4 ER (2.30 ERA)
• 0 BS
• 10 SV

His pitch velocity and pitch frequencies have remained fairly constant during those two stretches, and they closely resemble those of last year (according to FanGraphs)…

Average Fourseam Fastball Velocity

2018: 97.9

2019: 97.4

Pitch Mix

2018: 62.4% four-seam fastball, 37.3% slider, and 0.3% changeup

2019: 62.9% four-seam fastball, 35.4% slider, and 1.8% sinker

Last year, Edwin Diaz surrendered his fifth home run of the season on September 15th. Today is June 18th and he has already given up five dingers. A lack of command has been Diaz’s biggest problem in 2019. Right-handed batters are hitting .309/.365/.441 off of him this season. Lefties have not been as successful in comparison (.222/.265/.489), but they account for three out of the five home runs that Diaz has allowed.

2018

2019 (Heatmaps courtesy of FanGraphs)

As can be seen in the heatmaps above, Diaz is missing over the heart of the plate more regularly this season. He is also pitching right-handed hitters down in the zone less frequently and he is not challenging them inside as much as he was last year, both of which are hindering his success. There is also the possibility that Diaz has been tipping his pitches. According to Brooks Baseball, in the months of May and June, Diaz has been releasing his slider ~2.4 inches higher than his four-seam fastball, a differential hitters could potentially pick up on.

6-13-19 Fourseam Fastball Release Point (Photos via Baseball Savant)

6-15-19 Slider Fastball Release Point

As can be seen in the photos above, he is indeed releasing his four-seamer at a higher point (for reference, see where the ball is in relation to the “Mets” writing behind home plate). This could theoretically explain why Diaz has seen his HR/9 rate skyrocket from 0.61 to 1.57. Diaz has certainly regressed in 2019, but there’s reason to believe he has suffered from batted ball misfortunate. His FIP and xFIP are 3.25 and 2.73, respectively, and his BABIP is .406. Only three qualified relievers in MLB history have ever recorded a BABIP of .400 or above…

• 1873 Bob Ferguson, Atlantics: .417
• 2013 Jose Mijares, Giants: .410
• 1971 Claude Raymond, Expos: .400

Ultimately, Edwin Diaz and the rest of the Mets’ pen are going to need to raise their game big time if the Mets have any desires to acquaint themselves with .500 ball once again this season. It is crucial that Diaz looks into altering his four-seam fastball and slider release points, which could enable him to have better command of his pitches, against right-handed hitters, in particular, going forward.

The post Edwin Diaz And The Mets’ Demoralizing Bullpen appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

After a 7-1 homestand against the Tigers and Nationals, the Mets failed to live up to expectations on their 2-5 road swing against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Mets’ bullpen continued to struggle mightily, as Edwin Diaz blew a three-run lead in Los Angeles and Jeurys Familia and Robert Gsellman blew a four-run lead in Arizona on Saturday.

Adding to the Mets’ problems, Dominic Smith was scratched from Sunday’s lineup due to a sore thumb. Fortunately, Smith was able to pinch hit last night after a MRI revealed that he had a sprained thumb. If the Mets lost Smith, it would have undoubtedly been a tough blow to the slumping Mets.

Over his last 23 trips to the plate, Smith is hitting .450/.522/.800 with two home runs. Overall, he is batting .359/.461/.563 in 76 plate appearances and has been worth a robust 1.1 fWAR, a substantial improvement upon his first two seasons in the bigs (2017: -0.6 fWAR; 2018: -0.5 fWAR). But he has yet to receive regular playing time given that the Mets have Pete Alonso at first base.

Once Smith is able to return to the starting lineup, one can expect him to receive more reps moving forward, as Callaway is now willing to play Smith in left field. His defense there will surely be a work in progress, but getting Smith’s bat into the lineup more regularly should be a priority for Callaway and company.

Smith’s hard work in the offseason is certainly paying off, as he’s off to an extremely impressive start. In an interview with Kyle Glaser of Baseball America,  Smith talked about how he adjusted his stance at the plate:

Less moving parts. I’m a little bit taller now because when I was in my legs I would rock back too far and it would get me out on my front foot, and once I’m out on my front foot I’m trying to catch everything out in front and that’s what causing me to chase a lot of pitches. Now, I’m more tall, so I can really sit on that back hip and really reach and read the pitches now. I’m still really young, it’s crazy. You look at some of the greatest players, you look at (Aaron) Judge, you look at (Mike) Trout—their first couple hundred at-bats wasn’t the best, but they’re some of the best players in the game now. So at 23 years old, I feel like I still have a lot of potential and upside and I worked really hard this offseason, so I’m excited to do what I can in spring.

As can be seen in the images below, Dominic Smith is utilizing a much more subtle leg kick (he’s not trying “to catch everything out in front”) in 2019. He’s also cocking his bat in a more upright stance (presumably to enhance his timing), as well as keeping his hands in a lower position.

Aug 22 2018 (Credit: Baseball Savant)

May 29 2019 (Credit: Baseball Savant)

Additionally, Smith’s plate discipline has improved dramatically this season. After walking only 2.7 percent of the time last season, he is now walking nearly 15 percent of the time, not to mention he’s remarkably lowered his strikeout rate by 12.8 percent (from 31.5 percent to 18.7 percent).

2018

• O-Swing% (percent of the time a hitter swings at pitches outside the strike zone; according to FanGraphs): 39.8
• Swing%: 52.6
• SwStr% (percent of the time a hitter swings and misses): 14.3

2019

• O-Swing%: 30.4 (-9.4)
• Swing%: 45.8 (-6.8)
• SwStr%: 11.5 (-3.8)

Dominic Smith has developed a much more patient approach, which has allowed him to wait for pitches that he can do significant damage to. While I hate to dampen the enthusiasm, Smith’s staggering .435 BABIP entering Tuesday’s game is plain hard evidence of some extreme batted ball luck. Of the 47,239 batters to register at least 70 plate appearances during a single season (1871 – 2019), Smith’s .435 BABIP is the 33rd highest on the list (he’s in the 99.9 percentile!). Often times, line drive hitters run higher BABIP than their peers. But in taking a closer look at Dominic Smith’s batted ball profile, he does not appear to fall under that category.

• League average line drive percentage: 21.2
• Dominic Smith’s line drive percentage: 20.4

His career high batting average on balls in play is .380, and that was in 2017 when he was playing at triple-A. Smith’s BABIP has not exceeded .315 since then. To determine what Dominic Smith’s batting average may look like the rest of the way out, we’ll calculate a weighted average of his BABIP from his first three seasons in the majors:

Weighted BABIP: (2017 BABIP [.218] * 0.25) + (2018 BABIP [.297] * 0.35] + (2019 BABIP [.435] * 0.4) = .332

Based on this weighted average, Smith’s batting average moving forward will likely hover around the .270 range (.332 * 51 batted ball events = 16.932 hits; 16.932 / 63 at-bats = .269), which is still a valuable hitter.

Ultimately, Dominic Smith has reinvented his game through implementing a new stance and a more patient approach, and he looks to provide a jolt to the Mets offense in the coming weeks.

The post Examining Dominic Smith’s Dominant Start To 2019 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.