When we think of Cy Young awards and New York Mets pitchers, the first guy that likely comes to mind these days is Jacob deGrom — winning two in a row will do that.

He’s not the only Mets hurler to take home those honors in the past decade, of course — R.A. Dickey accomplished the feat while deGrom was in High-A.

There’s no point in comparing the two because the sample sizes — and results — are incredibly lopsided. For example, deGrom has won just 21 games over the past two seasons, while his performance has been worth 16.0 fWAR. As for Dickey, his magical performance led to nearly as many wins (20) and not nearly as much fWAR (4.7). But DeGrom put together some historically dominant stretches en route to winning this award twice, and the same was true for Dickey.

After all, it’s difficult to post a 20-6 record with a 2.73 ERA, a 3.25 SIERA, and a 1.05 WHIP in 233.2 innings without wiping the floor with the opposition with some form of regularity. The knuckleballer threw at least 30 innings in each month of the 2012 season and posted an ERA south of 3.20 on four occasions. Upon looking at his splits, though, there was one specific stretch where he was mostly untouchable, which likely helped propel him to winning the award: the month of June.

Anyway you slice it, the 48.1 frames Dickey tossed in June was just off the chain, and head-and-shoulders better than any other month during this year-long campaign.

The ERA Ride

Here’s a peek at how Dickey’s monthly ERA and wOBA allowed progressed each month.

It’s not surprising that his four highest monthly innings pitched totals all came in the instances where his ERA was below that 3.20 mark. I mean, when you pitch well, you get to pitch deeper in games.

June sticks out because it’s the highest total. No other qualified starter in baseball threw more innings than Dickey during that 30-day span, and nobody posted an ERA lower than him. He also led the league with 2.0 fWAR, meaning about 43.0% of his year-end fWAR total came in approximately 20.0% of the work.

Of the six starts Dickey made, he threw fewer than seven innings just once, which came on June 24th against the New York Yankees when he allowed five runs in six innings. The other five starts? He allowed just one run, and it wasn’t even an earned run. This stretch also included three of his five complete-game efforts for the entire year: a seven-hit shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals on June 2nd and consecutive one-hitters against the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles on June 13th and June 18th, respectively.

The Strikeout and Walk Rate Progression

When looking at how Dickey’s strikeout and walk numbers progressed throughout the season, it shows a build-up to June and a gradual drop afterward, for the most part.

Once again, that June start against the Yankees stands as the outlier during an other-worldly stretch of success. Dickey struck out just three in that appearance, and it was the only time he exited a June start with fewer than eight punchouts.

He piled up a total of 25 during those consecutive one-hit complete games and finished off the month with 10 against the Los Angeles Dodgers in eight innings on June 29th. The knuckler piled up seven different single-game performances of 10-plus strikeouts, meaning just about half of them came in a four-start stretch.

Dominating Quality of Contact

Obviously, the tricky part about throwing a knuckleball is it has a mind of its own. Dickey can have a good feel for the pitch, but even he didn’t know exactly what the ball would do given the conditions he was throwing it in. Once again — as if there was any surprise — June stands out as the best stretch for him with regard to managing the contact of opposing hitters.

Here’s a look at how the batted-ball profile shook out each month.

I looked at this for a couple minutes and tried to pick just one June rate that really stuck out, but it’s impossible. All of them put together is just so crazy. With the rate at which he was inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact, giving up just one home run was basically expected.

When using FanGraphs’ Game Score statistic as the measuring stick, four of his six June starts are classified as his best single-season performances from 2012.

Would he have still won the Cy Young if this month was more in line with what he did in other months? Maybe, but who knows. Either way, it’s easy to see that this stretch of domination is what propelled him to an easy victory in the voting, taking home 27 of 32 first-place votes.

The post The Unequivocal Peak of R.A. Dickey’s Cy Young Season appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

John Olerud only spent three years with the New York Mets, but he made the most of his time in Queens.

New York acquired Olerud and $5 million in cash from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Robert Person in advance of the 1997 season. The first baseman was a crucial piece of the Mets’ puzzle as they eventually ramped up to the organization’s run of success between 1998 and 2000. What’s interesting to note, though, is that this acquisition was about 10 years in the making.

Olerud was selected by the Mets in the 27th round of the 1986 MLB Draft. He opted to play baseball for Washington State University, which ended up being a wise choice as he was then selected by the Jays in the third round of the 1989 draft. He went straight to the big leagues from there.

His eight-year run in Toronto was impressive, but Olerud’s performance with the Mets was a step above that when looking at his numbers. And while he remained productive for a few years after leaving New York, it didn’t come close to what he did in the orange and blue.

As we continue waiting for baseball to come back — or at least have some kind of target date to circle on our calendars — I’m going to begin picking random former Mets players that I enjoyed watching. As a young and impressionable first baseman who threw left-handed, Olerud was the whole package between offense and defense, which made him must-watch material for me.

One of the Best Mets Seasons Ever

This franchise has been blessed with a number of talented first basemen since coming into existence. In an article last week, we posted an article that detailed some of the best first base seasons in Mets history.

Despite what Pete Alonso just did, the productive handful of years from Carlos Delgado, and the consistent dominance that Keith Hernandez brought to the table, the guy who topped them all was Olerud.

Obviously, this is the kind of debate that can lead to a different answer depending on which person answers the question. If we use fWAR as the determining factor, though, it’s not even close.

Olerud’s 1998 campaign consisted of a 167 wRC+ off the strength of a .354/.447/.551 triple slash, along with 22 home runs, 93 RBI, and 91 runs scored. When combining these numbers with his defensive value, his overall performance was pegged at 8.1 fWAR. That’s not only the highest fWAR by a first baseman in Mets history, but it’s also the second-highest of any position player donning the orange and blue. Only David Wright‘s 2007 season (8.4 fWAR) was better.

His 167 wRC+ is the highest number ever produced by a Mets player who has qualified for the batting title, and that .354 batting average is the franchise record Jeff McNeil may try and snatch away one day. Olerud’s .447 on-base percentage is also a single-season franchise record by a lengthy margin. The next-closest number in that department comes in at .427 by… also Olerud, but this time in 1999.

Impressive Offensive Trends

One of the things I love doing when looking at a ballplayer’s stat page is to discover any trends that carry over from year to year. It wasn’t hard to find one during Olerud’s Mets years, and mostly because it was a trend that was present throughout the majority of his career.

Olerud was an exceptionally patient hitter. He owned a career on-base percentage of .398 off the strength of a 14.1% walk rate, which paired nicely with an 11.2% strikeout rate. In 16 full seasons of play, the first baseman’s strikeout rate outpaced his walk rate on just three occasions (1990, 1991, and 2005).

The gap between these two increased in each of his three years in New York, though. His strikeout rate went from 10.6% to 11.0% to 9.1%, while his walk rate went from 13.5% to 14.4% to 17.3% (a single-season career-high mark). He was also consistent in the run production and power departments, finishing each season of his Mets career with at least 19 home runs, 90-plus runs scored, and 90-plus RBI.

The Whole Body of Work

We’ve already established that Olerud’s 1998 campaign is one of the best single-season performances by a Mets position player in franchise history. As one would imagine, the fWAR he produced in the other two years were also impressive — he sandwiched that 8.1-fWAR performance with 4.4 and 5.8 on either side.

Olerud produced nine different seasons with at least 3.0 fWAR, but when splitting his career into three parts — before the Mets, with the Mets, and after the Mets — it’s clear that his stint in Queens was the most dominant overall. Here’s a look at some key stats:

Although Olerud didn’t get any of his big individual (or team) accomplishments during his time with the Mets — he was a two-time All-Star, two-time World Series champion, an AL batting champ, and three-time Gold Glove Award winner — the unassuming left-hander made his mark in a short period of time. So much so that his name is still at or near the top of certain franchise leaderboards more than 20 years after he last suited up for New York.

That’s a pretty darn good legacy to leave.

The post 27 Years Ago Today: Mets Acquire John Olerud appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

During Wednesday’s series finale between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, things got a little…chippy. A little more than 24 hours after the benches cleared following some chin music from Mets reliever Yoan López to St. Louis third baseman, Nolan Arenado, MLB has handed down its decision on who will be disciplined from the fracas.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the following news:

MLB gave a 2-game suspension to Nolan Arenado and a 1-game suspension to Genesis Cabrera for their involvement in the Cardinals-Mets hostilities. Yoan Lopez and Taijuan Walker of the Mets received fines, as did Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) April 28, 2022

It’s interesting that Lopez only received a fine. After all, his pitch was the one that got everyone all hot and bothered before the benches and bullpens emptied. Judging from the series of events, it’s not overly surprising that Arenado received the heaviest suspension, as his reaction to the up-and-in pitch is what accelerated the on-field conflict.

As for Taijuan Walker and Jack Flaherty, they were both fined because they participated in this incident while still being on the Injured List. Possibly the most interesting part of all? Well, that’d be Cardinals’ first base coach, Stubby Clapp — he tackled Pete Alonso during this ordeal, but seemingly escaped without receiving any kind of discipline from the league.

The Mets have gotten hit by pitches so often to start 2022, though, that it didn’t really matter who was on the other side of the diamond — they’re frustrated and needed to let everyone know about it. New York has made enough noise about this situation (they’ve been hit 19 times in 20 games, people), that someone from the league office will be at Citi Field on Friday to discuss it with them.

It’s hard to really make sense as to why the Mets are getting hit so often with pitches, and with much more frequency than any other team in the league. Whether or not there’s intent, they’re right to be frustrated with what’s going on. They’ve been lucky to escape any serious injuries, but the squad can’t keep depending on that. Opposing pitchers are just going to have to control the ball a little bit better moving forward.

The post Nolan Arenado Suspended, Mets Receive Fines For Brawl appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Just when you thought the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster couldn’t get any more intimidating, they go and do this.

Less than a week before Opening Day on April 7th, L.A. has reportedly acquired closer Craig Kimbrel from the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers sent outfielder AJ Pollock to the Southside in return according to multiple reports, including Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

This comes shortly after longtime Dodgers closer, Kenley Jansen, officially left the organization via free agency to join the Atlanta Braves, too. This doesn’t seem like a bad way to fill that specific void, right?

After joining the Chicago Cubs in 2019 and struggling for a couple of seasons (he posted ERAs of 6.53 and 5.28 in ’19 and ’20), he was dominant for the first part of 2021. Prior to the Cubs trading him across town, the right-hander posted a 0.49 ERA with a 46.7% strikeout rate, a 9.5% walk rate, and a 2.2 fWAR through 36 2/3 innings. However, he struggled over his final 23 frames following that deadline deal. Kimbrel’s strikeout rate (36.7%), walk rate (10.2%), and ERA (5.09) all got worse, and he compiled 0.0 fWAR in the process.

One thing that changed between these two stops — the right-hander’s home runs allowed per nine innings. It went from 0.25 with the Cubs to 1.96 with the White Sox. This change also included a rise in fly-ball rate (43.3% to 53.1%) and hard-hit rate (28.3% to 42.9%) allowed.

As for Pollock, he put together a nice campaign for the Dodgers in 2021, which included a .297/.355/.536 line, 21 home runs, and 69 RBI in 117 games played (422 plate appearances). This led to a 137 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR, his best overall performance since a 6.8-fWAR campaign he produced in 2015 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pollock’s biggest issue in recent years has been to stay healthy, which he’ll now attempt to do in the Windy City.

What does this mean for the Dodgers, though? It leaves their outfield depth a smidge thin at the big-league level, especially with Cody Bellinger struggling thus far in spring training. If you’ve spent any time on Twitter since news of this trade went down, a number of people are wondering if L.A. will go and sign former Met Michael Conforto now. Only time will tell if there’s any truth to those thoughts.

The post Dodgers Trade AJ Pollock for Craig Kimbrel appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Hey, did you hear? Baseball is back, which means the New York Mets will be playing games that count at Citi Field in just about a month from now. And according to Tim Healey of Newsday, the organization will be doing more than just playing baseball in April.

Due to the labor negotiations, Opening Day has been moved back from March 31st to April 7th. That also meant the Mets’ home opener would be pushed back to April 15th, which just so happens to be Jackie Robinson Day. Healey reported earlier on Friday that New York is planning to unveil Tom Seaver‘s statue on that day, as well.

Healey mentioned that letting the world see this long-overdue project was already planned for the Mets’ home opener, but the lockout dragging on nearly 100 days foiled the original date. In a follow-up tweet, Healey said New York’s game on April 15th has been moved to a 1 pm start time. In addition to that, we won’t have to lose much sleep for the first series of the year, as Saturday and Sunday are also 1 pm start times.

Back in 2019, the organization changed the address of Citi Field to 41 Seaver Way to honor the greatest pitcher in franchise history. Shortly after, we heard he’d also be honored with a statue. It was supposed to be unveiled during the 2021 season but got delayed until this year, and of course, it got delayed one more time before — hopefully! — finally getting revealed next month.

Owner Steve Cohen said he wanted to honor team history more. He’s followed through on that promise with bringing back Old Timers’ Day, and now we’ll also see Seaver’s statue finally happen under his watch. Of course, plans for this structure weren’t announced during his time as majority owner, but he’s the one in charge at the competition of a project that seemed to take too long to get going in the first place, and that says something.

The post Report: Mets Plan to Unveil Tom Seaver Statue on April 15th appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

As the MLB Lockout drags on, it’s becoming more of a challenge to keep actual baseball in our lives on a daily basis during a time when we should be enjoying it. You know, assuming there will be a season to actually enjoy. I’ve been fighting this challenge all winter, which naturally brought me to watching Lucas Duda highlights over the weekend.

Before Yoenis Cespedes got hot, Lucas Duda helped carry the #Mets' offense back to first place in 2015. Over an eight-game span from 7/25-8/2, he slashed .393/.452/1.393 (!) with 9 homers and 12 RBI. #LGM (via MLB) pic.twitter.com/evKBpZ2A76

— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) March 5, 2022

There were plenty of people who shared in my appreciation for Duda’s tear at the end of July and early August, as well as how he contributed to the New York Mets overall during his time in Flushing. There was also a fair amount of criticism for his streakiness. Some even mentioned he wasn’t that good and only certain parts of Mets Twitter held him in high regard for no reason.

I’m not on a crusade to prove people wrong — Duda certainly wasn’t a perfect player — but I did want to take some time and appreciate the contributions he made for New York. I mostly want to talk about his 2015 campaign, but I’ll also include his 30-homer performance from 2014 because, well, why not?

Even with the flaws in Duda’s game, I’ve talked in the past about how his performance with the Mets flies under the radar (that seems to happen with a number of New York first basemen, but that’s a conversation for another day, I suppose). That’s especially the case regarding his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He posted the only 3.0 fWAR performances of his career and slugged 57 of his 156 home runs during this time. Although he played in 18 fewer games in 2015, his 3.2 fWAR in that campaign was his single-season career-high mark.

While he’s been known to hit “meaningless” home runs — I put it in quotes because no home runs are meaningless, in this author’s opinion — I forgot how absurdly hot he could get over a short period of time. The above tweet is proof of that. Sure, his 27 homers from 2015 came in just 19 different games since he racked up seven multi-homer performances, but I don’t see how that can truly be criticism for him. If Duda didn’t have any multi-homer games, would it look that much better if he hit his dingers in 27 different games? Not really.

Plus, there’s more to offensive production than just hitting home runs, as we all know. August was the only month he didn’t appear in at least 20 games during the 2015 season, and his overall production seemed pretty consistent. June was Duda’s worst month — he posted a .574 OPS and 64 wRC+ during that time — but the rest was actually quite good. He owned an OPS above .900 and a wRC+ above 155 in four different months. The one other time he didn’t? That’d be July when he managed a .749 OPS and 106 wRC+ despite a .178 batting average and a 36.0% strikeout rate.

Does that mean he was consistent in all aspects of his game? Well, no — of course not. He very much enjoyed hitting at Citi Field, as evidenced by his .275/.388/.611 line and 178 wRC+. He very much didn’t enjoy hitting on the road, as evidenced by his .215/.317/.368 line and 88 wRC+. Duda’s production also consistently tailed off as the situation went from being low leverage (157 wRC+) to medium leverage (109 wRC+) and high leverage (95).

Do you know what he was typically consistent with, though? A couple of things: his performance against right-handers and left-handers, as well as whether there were runners on base or not.

Against southpaws, Duda posted a .878 OPS and 144 wRC+, along with a .823 OPS and 129 wRC+ against right-handers. With the bases empty, the first baseman produced a .907 OPS and 153 wRC+. When runners were on base, those numbers were .746 and 107, respectively. When those runners were in scoring position, those numbers were .812 and 119, respectively.

Looking to the postseason, Duda’s performance wasn’t terrific in the NLDS (.311 OPS) or World Series (.581 OPS), but he did play a role in helping sweep the Chicago Cubs out of the NLCS (1.355 OPS). He drove in six runs, and of the four hits he recorded, three went for extra bases (one homer and two doubles). If Daniel Murphy didn’t turn into Babe Ruth, he would’ve had a great shot at winning series MVP honors.

So, what’s the point here? I know Duda was far from the perfect player and he was pretty streaky. His flaws as a players were more apparent once New York traded him in 2017. However, he was not “bad” or “terrible”, which were two words I saw thrown around more often than I expected this past weekend — especially from 2014-15. For someone who came up and had Ike Davis in front of him on the first base depth chart, he ended up putting together a decent career with the Mets. And, if it wasn’t for an errant throw home during Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, he probably would be remembered more fondly by Mets fans.

The post Appreciating Lucas Duda’s 2015 Season appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Folks, guess what? No, the MLB lockout is still not over, but we’ve got some actual baseball/free agency news to discuss! And, when thinking about how it could potentially impact the New York Mets, it’d be good news for them and the rest of the National League East…not counting the Atlanta Braves.

MLB insider Jon Heyman shared the following tweet about Freddie Freeman:

Sources: The low-revenue Tampa Bay Rays made superstar Freddie Freeman an offer before the lockout. Yankees very interested. Jays, Dodgers, others could fit. It’s a surprise Braves didn’t lock him up before lockout; they remain in mix. (New daily feature: actual baseball news)

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 7, 2022

We obviously don’t know the details of the Tampa Bay Rays’ offer to Freeman. If we’re going to make an assumption, though, it wouldn’t be shocking to see it be some kind of high annual value/short-term deal (similar to what they did with Charlie Morton not too long ago). If that’s the case, it wouldn’t be ideal for Freeman, who is looking for more of a long-term pact to likely take him toward the end of his career.

But still, there are legitimate rumors about Freeman not returning to Atlanta for 2022 and beyond, although Heyman notes they’re still in the mix. We did hear about the New York Yankees having an interest in the first baseman prior to the lockout, and it’d be interesting to see exactly who else would get involved once free agency opens back up.

It is kind of weird that the Braves didn’t re-sign the clear leader in their clubhouse off the heels of winning the World Series. Looking for a five- or six-year deal while entering your age-33 season isn’t exactly an easy ask, but Freeman also hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. His 4.5 fWAR is the ninth straight year he’s posted at least 3.0 in a season, and his .896 OPS is the ninth straight time it’s been above .840.

If baseball ever comes back (it probably will but it’s hard to feel optimistic right now), it’ll be interesting to see what Freeman’s market ends up looking like. There will be plenty of teams scrambling to complete their respective rosters, so the Braves may have some stiff competition if they’d sincerely like to retain the services of their longtime first baseman.

The post Heyman: Rays Made Offer to Freddie Freeman Prior to Lockout appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

UPDATE, 3/6/22 at 4:39 PM EST

The MLBPA made its counterproposal feature some concessions, but not enough to move the needle. The MLBPA reduced its pre-arbitration pool offer by $5 million to $80 million, and they gave MLB the ability to change rules on pitch clocks, the size of bases and shifting with 45 days’ notice. MLB previously would have to give a year’s notice on rule changes. The MLBPA didn’t adjust its stance on the competitive balance tax.

MLB spokesperson Glen Caplin called the proposal “worse” than the MLBPA’s last proposal on Monday. He also said the two sides are “deadlocked.”

MLB’s Glen Caplin: “We were hoping to see some movement in our direction to give us additional flexibility & get a deal done quickly. The Players Association chose to come back to us w/a proposal that was worse than Monday night & was not designed to move the process forward”

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 6, 2022

UPDATE, 3/6/22 at 1:54 PM EST

MLB and the MLBPA’s latest meeting Sunday ended after just over an hour-and-a-half, according to The Athletic‘s Evan Drellich.

Details on the meeting will likely surface within the hour.

UPDATE, 3/6/22 at 12:56 EST

MLB and the MLBPA are joining to formally meet for the first time since MLB canceled games after the two sides didn’t reach an agreement by Tuesday’s 5 p.m. deadline.

The players are expected to counter MLB’s last proposal.

In addition to the core economic issues in the game, there are plenty of on-the-field rules both the MLB and players want to discuss. According to ESPN‘s Jesse Rogers, MLB wants to institute a 14-second pitch clock with the bases empty and a 19-second pitch clock with runners on. Rogers says “MLB determined less time was needed for pitchers with the bases empty and more time with them occupied” after an experiment in Low-A ball with 15- and 17-second pitch clocks. Game times in those games with pitch clocks were cut by an average of 20 minutes.

UPDATE, 3/5/22 at 2:56 EST

The union and MLB will meet once again on Sunday, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He added that the union plans to give MLB written proposals to all of its latest offers.

Andy Martino of SNY reported that Max Scherzer has made the case for “ghost win” in public. MLB subsequently agreed to 12 teams and considered the “ghost win” “viable.”

UPDATE, 3/4/22 at 16:10 EST

Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the players union has approached MLB with an offer to re-open talks about a 14-team playoff format, a structure that they previously turned down.

Olney reports that the idea is they can exchange this for more flexibility on the CBT numbers and other issues.

UPDATE, 3/3/22 at 14:49 EST

Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe reports that the 90-minute meeting between two lead negotiators from MLB and the two lead negotiators from the players association did not include any formal proposals.

The next meeting between MLB and MLBPA has not been scheduled yet.

UPDATE, 3/3/22 at 12:39 EST

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that MLB is hoping to implement three different rules in the near future and all have been discussed recently in CBA talks.

• Banning shifts
• Oversized bases
• Pitch clock

Nightengale notes that those rules currently can’t go into effect before the 2024 season and MLB wants them to start during the 2023 season.

UPDATE, 3/3/22 at 9:49 EST

Multiple reporters are saying that the lead negotiators, Dan Halem for MLB and Bruce Meyers for the players, will have an informal one-on-one meeting today in New York.

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 4:00 EST

A flurry of reports on proposals are coming in now. It looks like the season will be delayed.

Once the union formally responds, and barring a stunning surprise, MLB is expected to make their official announcement of a delayed 2022 regular season.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 1, 2022

Sources: Players are expected to vote no on the “best and final” MLB proposal

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 3:45 EST

MLB's best-and-final offer:

– No changes to CBT thresholds (220/220/220/224/230)
– A $5M increase on pre-arb bonus pool from $25M to $30M
– An increase of minimums from $675K to $700K, moving up $10K/year

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 3:24 EST

MLBPA’s most recent CBT proposal (MLB’s most recent in parenths for comparison):

2022: $238m (220)
2023: $244m (220)
2024: $250m (220)
2025: $256m (224)
2026: $263m (230)

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 3:00 EST

Things have turned sour at the negotiations. Bob Nightengale reports that MLB plans to make one final offer but considering what happened in Jupiter on Tuesday it is tough to see them reach an agreement.

Jon Heyman adds that an MLB official told him they thought they had a “path to a deal” last night. The same official said MLB will make one final best offer.

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 2:17 EST

Word is the players union lowered their bonus pool ask to less than $100M. (Exact figure not known.) MLB was last at $25M. Seemingly a decent sized gap remains.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 1:33 EST

With 3 hours, 30 minutes to go until MLB’s newly chosen deadline, the sides are meeting for the first time today, as Dan Halem, Morgan Sword and Pat Houlihan head over. The union was speaking with its players for much of today. pic.twitter.com/S5eldNBhdy

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 12:20 EST

Two hours and 20 minutes since the sides arrived they have yet to meet in person says Evan Drellich. Although that doesn’t mean they haven’t spoken since phones exist.

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 11:44 EST

In case you were interested in what a 12-team playoff will look like, Buster Olney breaks it down.

This is the way the 12-team playoff MLB field would likely work: Top two teams in each league get first-round byes, and the other eight teams would play a first-round best-of-three.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 10:51 EST

Heyman is updating his prior report saying it won’t be part of the CBA deal because there are more pressing matters at hand.

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 8:46 EST

Jon Heyman reports that MLB has suggested the union drop its 2018 grievance against the Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, Oakland Athletics, and Pittsburgh Pirates for failing to spend its revenue sharing monies as part of a deal. If it happens there is the belief that the four small-market owners will be appeased after concerns over the luxury tac threshold rise.

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 2:27 EST

Jeff Passan lets us all go to bed. There will be no deal tonight. But, the deadline to regular-season games being canceled has been moved to 5 p.m.

There will be no deal on a new collective-bargaining agreement in this early hour, sources tell ESPN. Enough progress was made that MLB and the MLBPA will meet again later today in hopes of finalizing one. Deadline to miss regular-season games has been moved to 5 p.m. today.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 12:47 EST

Current plan is to stay in the stadium and keep talking until a deal is done. Determination to finish this exists.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 3/1/22 at 12:00 EST

The deadline from MLB is here. No one is moving according to multiple reports. They’re still working.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 11:45 EST

According to Bob Nightengale, MLB and the MLBPA have reached a compromise that there will be a 12-team postseason.

Additionally he reports that there will be tweaks made but the luxury tax penalties will be similar to the last CBA.

There still will be some tweaks but the luxury tax penalties will be similar to the last CBA: 20%, 32% and $62.5%

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 8:45 pm EST

We’ve got another glimmer of hope, people! This one is coming from Drellich, who says says that while a deal isn’t close, it’s not impossible to get done. Here are some of the main issues being discussed and the two options MLB has proposed:

Sources: Deal not close, but not impossible. CBT thresholds, prearb pool big issues, among others. MLB has proposed two choices:

A: 14-team expanded postseason, minimum of ~$700k, ~40m into prearb pool

B: 12-team expanded postseason, ~$675k minimum, ~$20m into prearb pool

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) March 1, 2022

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 8:19 pm EST

Well, don’t get your hopes up, but Heyman just tweeted that there’s “momentum” in talks, and there’s even a little optimism. What exactly that means, we’re not so sure, but it’s the kind of update we haven’t heard in quite some time, so that has to be a good thing.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN is also reporting that an MLB spokesperson said they’re not done meeting for the night. Hold on to your hats, party people.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 4:10 pm EST

According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, one of the sticking points between MLB and the players association is the fact that the league is pushing for a 14-team postseason, which hasn’t been well received from those who would actually be playing October baseball.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 4:01 pm EST

Both sides have been working — even if it’s not face-to-face — for about six hours, but it’s not over yet with a deadline breathing down their proverbial necks. Drellich noted that meetings between MLB and the MLBPA aren’t done yet and they’re planning on meeting again.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 3:43 pm EST

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred went to the players’ side to chat in person, but he was only there for about 40 minutes, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. We could really use some of his Twitter magic to speak a new agreed-upon CBA into existence.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 1:27 pm EST

At least for right now, it seems like the league’s threat of being willing to miss regular-season games is real, and it’s not amazing. Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports that MLB is willing to miss up to a month of games to get what they want, and their tone is more “threatening” than it was on Sunday.

Remember, this was the first meeting between both sides in what will likely be a long day. Talk about setting the tone.

UPDATE, 2/28/22 at 11:17 am EST

Reports told us on Sunday that MLB and the MLBPA would be starting their meetings at 1oam EST on Monday, which is much earlier than the typical 1 pm start time we’ve been seeing. According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, the first bargaining session of the day just began, as league officials walked over to meet with the players.

Original Article

Well, folks, the day has come. It’s Monday, February 28th, which is the self-imposed deadline made recently by MLB for which a new CBA needs to be agreed upon so regular-season games don’t start getting canceled.

The league and the players union are set to start meeting at 10 am EST on Monday, which would be the eighth straight day both sides are negotiating face-to-face. How likely is it that we’ll actually see a deal come together before the deadline passes? It doesn’t seem very high at the moment.

We did hear reports of “productive” talks coming out of Sunday’s discussions, but many reporters are being sure to temper expectations. After all, having productive talks isn’t the same as gaining momentum toward a deal being agreed upon. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reiterates the league’s intention to cancel games without an agreement by the end of Monday, which is a threat the union has never actually believed. They plan on negotiating the schedule if it comes to that, and they’d have a case to do so.

They could start the season on April 5 and play 162 games in 178 days to end on October 2, which would preserve original postseason start date.

That means even with ~30 days to ramp up, could get a deal done by March 7 and still make a full season work https://t.co/DYm0DQhpxa

— JB (@JeffreyBellone) February 28, 2022

Of course, if this were to come to pass, it takes two sides to tango, which is something that hasn’t necessarily been happening since the lockout was put in place back in December.

What if this work stoppage continues to linger, though? The MLBPA has been preparing for this moment, and they have a mountain of money ready to assist players if the season is delayed. Starting Tuesday, players will receive a $5,000 stipend, and that number jumps to $15,000 on April 1st, according to Evan Drellich of The Athletic. According to Maury Brown of Forbes also notes that the union has nearly $180 million total saved for player compensation in this specific situation.

It should be a day filled with plenty of news and rumors. We’ll continually update this article with any new developments that get revealed throughout the day. Let’s hope that by the end of it, we can actually get excited about baseball season because we’ll know when it’ll start.

The post Lockout Deadline Thread: Two Sides Meeting Again Sunday appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The past few days have been the worst kind of emotional roller coaster, folks. Right when it was maybe OK to be a little optimistic about the MLB lockout ending, we were just let down once again.

The cruelest part of all is that everything went down on March 1st. March 1st! You know, when spring training is supposed to be in full swing and we usually start saying “We’re going to start watching baseball games that actually count in X days.” But no, not only has spring training not started yet, the first two series of the regular season have been canceled. And for some reason, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred was smiling at times while making that announcement.

It certainly doesn’t feel like that guy likes baseball very much.

We don’t actually know when the regular season is going to start yet. It’ll hopefully be sooner rather than later, but now it won’t be any sooner than April 7th. The New York Mets are losing five home games, all of which were scheduled to be against fellow National League East opponents in the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

So what exactly does this mean for them? Five games doesn’t seem like a ton, but it could have significant implications depending on how tight the divisional race is. Back in the middle of December, when we all thought this lockout wouldn’t last very long, I talked about how New York would immediately be getting tested upon looking at their April schedule. With five fewer games, though, it forces manager Buck Showalter and his squad to focus on the details even more than they were already likely planning to.

Sure, it’s only five games, but they were five games at Citi Field. That was a situation where the Mets posted a 47-34 record in 2021. The balance of home and away games is ever so slightly leaning towards away games (at least, for now), meaning New York will have to play in a situation where the team posted a 30-51 record last year.

This schedule change also puts more pressure on players and the team overall to get the upcoming season off to a fast start, which is something the club hasn’t done over the past three seasons. Entering May of 2019, the Mets were 15-14. Entering August of 2020, they were 15-18. This past season, New York entered May with a 10-11 record.

While the Amazins didn’t necessarily distinguish themselves in NL East play last season with a 39-37 record, it was the only division they posted a winning record against (13-20 vs. NL Central, 16-17 vs. NL West, 9-11 vs. AL teams). And although it’s not necessarily terrible to see that they’ll be facing the Braves fewer times than usual, missing that first series against the Nationals hurts because it’s against a team projected to finish in last place. Just as a refresher, the Mets were 44-32 vs. losing teams and 33-53 vs. winning teams in 2021.

We haven’t seen Buck Showalter manage a game in Flushing yet, but he’s put together a reputation for being incredibly thorough and sweating all the details. That’s good because while the details always matter during the regular season, they continue to get magnified when the schedule starts shrinking from 162 games — even if it’s just five contests.

How deep the starting rotation can get in games will matter more. How Showalter uses his bullpen will be under a little more of a microscope. The Mets’ offense won’t have the same amount of time to right the ship if they’re not firing on all cylinders. Small things like playing good defense and running the bases effectively all become more important.

Is this being a little dramatic? I’m not going to lie — maybe I am. But we don’t know exactly how much longer this lockout is going to last. It could just be the first two series that get canceled, and it might be more. Who knows how this will impact the plans of MLB front offices once free agency opens back up. And, in turn, who knows how that impacts what the Mets eventually do when they’re finally able to put a punctuation mark on a very long, boring, and frustrating offseason.

The immediate future — and long-term future, for that matter — of the game is up in the air. Regardless of what happens here, we know that our Metsies will need to be a stickler for details even more than they were already planning to be. Of course, I’m saying this with the (possibly naive) assumption that they’ll get on the field sometime soon, which we all know is no guarantee.

The post As Schedule Shortens, Details Become More Important For Mets appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Monday is MLB’s self-imposed deadline to strike a deal for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement so the 2022 regular season can begin as scheduled on March 31st. After a week of meeting every day in Florida, the chances of that happening are looking slim, no matter what some league insiders are reporting. There are still a few hours left to get a deal done before the proverbial buzzer, so I suppose we can hold out some hope, even though it’s not looking good.

While we do that, I figured it was a good idea to finish a little series I began a couple of weeks ago. After all, these projections may not mean anything soon if games start getting canceled. I first looked at the New York Mets’ position-player projections for the upcoming season and compared them to the organization’s past winning teams since 1997. I followed that by doing the same exercise for the starting rotation, so naturally, it’s now time to finish things up with the bullpen.

This is an area of the Mets’ roster that has been a thorn in their side in recent years, but the 2021 bullpen proved to be more reliable, as their collective 4.4 fWAR ranked 10th in baseball. Instead of tallying up 2.0-plus and 3.0-plus fWAR seasons, we’ll bump it down to 0.5 and 1.0 to see how past bullpens from winning teams compare to New York’s current projections.

Current Projections for 2022 Bullpen

As a unit, ZiPS is projecting the Mets’ bullpen to rack up 4.7 fWAR. Here’s what some of the main contributors to that area of the roster are getting projected to produce, along with how many innings pitched is included in each equation:

• Edwin Díaz: 1.1 fWAR in 62 IP
• Seth Lugo: 1.1 fWAR in 92 1/3 IP
• Trevor May: 0.6 fWAR in 58 IP
• Miguel Castro: 0.5 fWAR in 72 1/3 IP
• Drew Smith: 0.1 fWAR in 41 2/3 IP
• Trevor Williams: 0.9 fWAR in 118 IP
• Jake Reed: 0.0 fWAR in 50 IP
• Sean Reid-Foley: 0.4 fWAR in 90 IP

While those fWAR projections add up to the 4.7 mentioned above, there are a couple of caveats to mention here. In the projections for Lugo, Williams, and Reid-Foley, there are a significant number of starts baked into it (like at least 12 for each). So, their fWAR projections aren’t necessarily exclusive to the bullpen, which we’ll keep in mind for the remainder of this exercise.

Even if we completely take them out of the equation, the Mets are projected to have at least three guys with 0.5-plus fWAR in 2022: Castro and May, along with Díaz, who is the lone reliever with a projection above 1.0. Although the 2021 squad didn’t finish with a winning record, New York’s bullpen boasted three hurlers in this club: May (0.5 fWAR), Díaz (2.0 fWAR), and Aaron Loup (1.5 fWAR).

So let’s look back at winning Mets seasons over the past 25 years to see how impactful the bullpen performance has been on their overall results.

Comparing This to Past Winning Seasons

As mentioned previously, the Mets have produced 12 different winning seasons since 1997. Outside of 2001 (82-80) and 2005 (83-79), they’ve registered at least 86 wins the other 10 times, which includes eight seasons of 88-plus victories.

Going back through the individual reliever production for each of these squads, I tallied up the number of players with 30-plus innings pitched who accumulated at least 0.5 fWAR that year. I then took it a step further to see how many of those performances resulted in at least 1.0 fWAR. Here are the results.

There are a few things to call out here. That 1999 season is an outlier in Mets history for many reasons, and this occasion is no different. While they only had one reliever above 1.0 fWAR, it was the best relief pitcher season in franchise history. This was by Armando Benitez (really), as he accumulated 3.1 fWAR during his first season in Queens.

After seeing how lackluster the rotation performance was overall, it’s not surprising to see the 2006 Mets had the most players in each of these categories of all New York’s recent winning clubs. They rode an elite offense and bullpen on their way to winning the NL East for the first time since 1988.

The 2016 campaign also stands out because it’s one of just four times the Mets had multiple relievers post greater than a 1.0 fWAR. In this instance, Addison Reed (2.4) and Jeurys Familia (2.1) both finished above 2.0.

Looking Ahead to The Upcoming Season

While having multiple hurlers post at least 1.0 fWAR in a single season out of the Mets’ bullpen doesn’t appear essential, multiple dependable arms need to be ready to contribute. In each of the years where New York reached the postseason (1999, 2000, 2006, 2015, 2016), there were at least two relievers with 0.5-plus fWAR recorded. And if we take 2000 out of the equation, all the others had at least three pitchers reach that benchmark.

It was nice to see the Mets have multiple arms in the bullpen that were dependable more times than not in 2021, especially since that hasn’t necessarily been a luxury for the club in recent years. We also know that an effective bullpen is essential in October, as “bullpenning” has become all the rage. Sure, that’d include some of the starters not in the playoff rotation. But when there’s a tight spot late in games and big outs are needed, manager Buck Showalter must have dudes at the ready that don’t make him feel sick with worry when they take the mound.

The top portion of New York’s bullpen looks decent heading into the season. As with many teams this winter, though, they haven’t had a chance to supplement the depth of their rosters because of the lockout. It’ll be interesting to see the directions in which the Mets head to put the finishing touches on their offseason, whenever they’re actually allowed to do so.

The post Comparing Mets’ 2022 Bullpen Projections to Past Winning Seasons appeared first on Metsmerized Online.