Jake Mangum, Photo by Richard Nelson

Though the primary focus of the Mets’ offseason will be squarely on the big-ticket acquisitions, the moves made on the margins can sometimes prove to be just as important.

The winter baseball calendar lends itself to these transactions, from the non-tender deadline to the Rule 5 Draft. It’s the latter that comes into focus as the date to add eligible players to the 40-man roster to shield them from the Draft is next Tuesday, Nov. 15. The Draft itself will be held at the Winter Meetings on Dec. 7.

First, a quick refresher on the rules. Minor Leaguers become eligible at either the fourth Draft after their original signing (if they were 19 or older at the time) or the fifth Draft (if they were 18 or younger). Players on the 40-man roster are exempt, hence the importance of the protection deadline. If selected, a player must remain on his new team’s Major League roster for the entire upcoming season, or else he’s offered back to his original team.

There is also a Minor League phase of the Draft in which the same group of eligibles are up for selection, minus the 40-man roster and a 38-man Triple-A roster which typically includes any prospect of at least slight relevance. Players picked in this phase aren’t forced to remain on a specific roster and can’t be offered back to their original organization.

An example of how these otherwise small moves can have a significant impact: The Mets selected right-handed pitcher Adam Oller from the Giants in the *Minor League* phase of the 2019 Rule 5 Draft, which was strictly seen as an organizational depth move considering he had been in the independent leagues a few months earlier.

After the 2020 Minor League season was canceled, though, Oller ascended to relevance within the system with a breakout 2021 season, after which the Mets added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the *Major League* phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Just a few days after that offseason’s lockout was lifted, Oller was one of two players traded to Oakland for Chris Bassitt, whose impact on the 2022 Mets was obviously significant.

With that, let’s examine the eligible players that the Mets will have to consider before Tuesday’s deadline.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

ALREADY ADDED TO THE 40-MAN ROSTER

Francisco Álvarez, C
Brett Baty, 3B
Bryce Montes de Oca, RP

After protecting Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio last offseason, this cycle was shaping up to be another notable one for the Mets with Álvarez and Baty becoming eligible. The decision (not that there was ever going to be one) was made ahead of time, as both players made their MLB debuts in the second half this year.

Montes de Oca, who missed the first three years of his professional career with injuries and then struggled with walks, proved to be too dominant at Triple-A to be anything other than a lock to be added. That suspicion was confirmed when he was called up to the Majors in September.

STRONG CHANCE TO BE ADDED

Jake Mangum, CF

Since the Mets already added their blue chip prospects to the 40-man roster during the season, there aren’t any other firm locks, though Mangum is as close as they get. This wasn’t trending positively at the beginning of the season — when, at 26 years old, he was sent to repeat Double-A — and still isn’t clear now — he isn’t listed among the organization’s top 30 prospects at any major outlet and will be 27 on Opening Day next year.

But Mangum is certainly forcing the issue. After returning from a back injury, he finished the year with a 22-game stretch at Triple-A in which he hit .333 with an .856 OPS and continued playing the stellar defense that has become routine throughout his time in the organization.

Mangum is very much the type of player that becomes valuable when left exposed in the Rule 5 Draft. It’s easy to picture his strong glove, speed and contact-first hitting approach being attractive to a rebuilding team like Oakland or Miami. And at his age, it’s essentially now or never.

If Mangum does get added to the 40-man roster, don’t confuse it with an appointment to be Brandon Nimmo’s replacement. The best-case scenario is having useful Triple-A depth, something that has escaped Mets front offices in recent years.

Photo by Ed Delany

WILL WARRANT CONSIDERATION

William Lugo, 3B
Stanley Consuegra, OF
Javier Atencio, LHP
Dedniel Núñez, RHP

The 20-year-old Lugo quietly had one of the most impressive seasons among Mets Minor League hitters in 2022, setting up an interesting decision regarding his Rule 5 status. Originally signed for $475,000 in 2018 using international bonus money from the Jeurys Familia trade earlier that summer, Lugo hit 14 home runs and posted a 121 wRC+ between St. Lucie and Brooklyn.

Would the Mets protect a player that hasn’t even reached Double-A? That’s a question they’ll also have to answer with Consuegra — a toolsy outfielder currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after an up-and-down regular season that finished in Brooklyn — and Atencio, a southpaw who put up strong numbers as a 20-year-old in St. Lucie.

At 26, Núñez is closer to Mangum on the age spectrum of Mets eligibles. The right-hander was actually selected in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft by the Giants but spent the entire 2021 season on the IL after needing Tommy John surgery and was ultimately returned last November. Núñez spent most of the year at Double-A Binghamton and struck out 32 percent of batters with a fastball that had returned to the upper 90s. It’s not difficult to envision him contributing to a Major League bullpen in 2023.

Carlos Cortes, Photo by Ed Delany

NOTABLES WHO WON’T BE ADDED (FIRST-TIMERS*)

Jeffrey Colón, RHP*
Carlos Cortes, LF
Brendan Hardy, RHP*
Nick Meyer, C
Luis Moreno, RHP*
Jaylen Palmer, CF*
Jose Peroza, 3B
Luke Ritter, 2B*
Junior Santos, RHP*
Hayden Senger, C
Jordany Ventura, RHP*
Josh Walker, LHP

More than anything, a player reaching Rule 5 eligibility is a sort of checkpoint for assessing where he is along the development track. Since Minor Leaguers can become free agents after their seventh pro season, reaching Rule 5 essentially starts a countdown to determining whether that player has a Major League future or not.

It’s going to be difficult for players like Cortes, Palmer, Santos and Senger — once among the top 15-20 prospects in the organization — to regain that status without incredible performances between now and their free agency date after the 2024 season.

The Mets aren’t short on open 40-man roster spots and they aren’t overflowing with potential adds, so there likely won’t be any bombshells this cycle. Mangum is looking more and more likely to be in line for a nod and there’s a possibility we’ll see another from the second group as well.

The post Examining Mets Rule 5 Decisions Ahead of Protection Deadline appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

This article was previously written by former MMO writer Jacob Resnick. 

I always felt like Terry Collins got the short end of the stick.

Sure, his bullpen usage was questionable. His lineup construction caused frequent head-scratching, yes. But I never felt that it was fair to throw the blame on Collins for having to trot out Jason Bay 175 times over two years or hand the ball to Rafael Montero over 50 times across four seasons. Any way you slice it, when Collins finally had 25 major league caliber players in his clubhouse at the same time, they won.

The one area that isn’t up for debate when it comes to dissecting Collins’ strengths and weaknesses as a manager is his voice. Never shy in trying to spark a fire under his players’ you-know-whats, that attitude came to a head on May 28, 2016 — five years ago today.

It began the previous October, when, during the second game of the National League Division Series, a slide by the Dodgers’ Chase Utley broke the leg of shortstop Ruben Tejada. The Mets got the last laugh in the series, winning the decisive fifth game, and the anger caused by the play largely subsided for seven months.

For the first time since the NLDS, the Dodgers rolled into New York to kick off a three-game weekend series that should have been focused on the 1986 World Series 30th anniversary celebration that was to take place on Saturday. Instead, Mets fans needed to let Utley and his team know how they felt about them.

On Friday, Utley battled through the shower of boos to deliver yet another crushing blows to the Mets when he cleared the bases with two outs in the top of the ninth inning to tie the game against Jeurys Familia, who entered at the start of the frame with a four-run lead. Again, though, New York had the final say. Curtis Granderson tucked the second pitch of the bottom of the ninth just inside the right field foul pole to win it.

Since the mid-1980s — except for maybe the early 2000s fracases between Mike Piazza and Roger Clemens (and Shawn Estes?) — the Mets haven’t exactly been known as a team that seeks blood in getting revenge against their adversaries. But if there was ever a pitcher in that timeframe who would take it upon himself to let his team know he has its back, it was Noah Syndergaard. In particular, the young version of Thor who took the mound for the middle game on Saturday.

Tejada wasn’t even on the team then, having been released towards the end of spring training as he yielded the starting shortstop job to Asdrubal Cabrera. In fact, Tejada, one of the longest-tenured Mets at the time of his release, had been designated for assignment earlier that day after just 34 at-bats with the St. Louis Cardinals.

With Dwight Gooden visiting the FOX broadcast booth, Utley dug in for his second plate appearance of the evening in the third inning after striking out to lead off the game. Syndergaard’s first pitch, a 99 mph fastball, sailed behind Utley’s back and, without hesitation, call-up umpire Adam Hamari leaped out from behind home plate to eject the pitcher.

Ironically, Utley would get the last laugh this time, homering off Logan Verrett in his next at-bat and ripping a grand slam off Hansel Robles in the seventh inning. Yet, the lasting image from May 28, 2016 is not Syndergaard’s message nor the final nail in the coffin that was Utley’s years-long pummeling of the Mets.

On the night of June 12, 2018, while the Mickey Callaway-led Mets were in the process of dropping to 28-35 with an 8-2 loss against the Atlanta Braves, a never-before-seen video of the Syndergaard ejection that featured a mic’d-up Tom Hallion, the first base umpire that night, made the rounds on social media and the internet. As tempers flared, including that of Collins, Hallion’s microphone picked up the manager’s profanity-laced tirade.

Collins, like his general manager Sandy Alderson, had routinely displayed his experience with the media, developed over years in the game, in settings such as interviews and press conferences. Careful to release too much in terms of his thoughts on controversial topics, this was his official comment to the press when Utley’s two-game suspension for the Tejada slide was overturned in March of 2016:

“I guess the easiest way to put it is we have a new slide rule and there’s a reason why that rule’s been put in. One of the major reasons is because of what happened to Ruben. I wasn’t in the meeting. I wasn’t there for their decision, so we’ll go play baseball.”

The leaked video cast Collins in a much different light.

“You’ve got to give us a shot,” he screamed as Hallion’s tone similarly exploded in the heat of the moment. “Why don’t we get a shot, Tommy? I know it, but MLB did nothing to that guy. Nothing!”

The Mets certainly found very little sustained success with Collins in the dugout, though it’s debatable whether that was entirely due to factors within his control. Unequivocally, however, his passion and devotion to having his players’ backs time and again, earn my full respect. And I don’t think my ass is in the jackpot for saying that.

The post Five Years Since Terry Collins Epic Rant appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Sean Reid-Foley, Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets were able to inject some life into their minor league pitching depth late Wednesday night by acquiring a trio of arms from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Steven Matz.

Matz was no guarantee to be a member of the opening day rotation in 2021 but also could not be optioned to the minor leagues since he has more than five years of service time.

With the bullpen virtually set following the signing of Aaron Loup, the scenarios in which Matz remained with the team through spring training were dwindling by the day.

In Sean Reid-Foley and Yennsy Diaz, the Mets picked up two depth righties that join the 40-man roster with usable minor league options in 2021. They also acquired Josh Winckowski, another right-hander, who should reach the upper minors this season.

Let’s look at each of the newest Mets individually.

Sean Reid-Foley

It wasn’t that long ago that Reid-Foley was one of the top 100 prospects in baseball, peaking at no. 75 on Baseball America’s list prior to the 2017 season.

Born in Guam while his father served in the Coast Guard, Reid-Foley signed for just over $1.1 million after the Blue Jays took him in the second round of the 2014 draft.

He reached the majors as a 22-year-old in 2018 and has bounced between Toronto and Triple-A Buffalo ever since. Strictly a starter throughout his time in the minors, Reid-Foley has come out of the bullpen in eight of his 21 big league appearances.

As he made the ascent through the minor leagues, Reid-Foley was scouted as a guy who could potentially hit 96-97 mph with some consistency. That hasn’t necessarily held up even as he works out of the bullpen, with his fastball just averaging 94 mph in relief. With an average movement profile as well, you’re just not looking at a plus fastball here

For a pitcher that sits in the low-90s, Reid-Foley has been incredibly wild in the major leagues, posting a walk rate of 23 percent in 71.2 innings. His most-recent extended run came in Buffalo in 2019. In 89 innings there, he walked 6.6 batters per nine.

Reid-Foley’s primary offspeed pitch is a slider that he’s used a third of the time since 2019. He also threw it harder in 2020, averaging 85.9 mph after sitting at 83.7 over his first two major league seasons.

In a limited sample, Reid-Foley’s slider has been very effective, posting run values of -4.7 in 2018 and -4.2 in 2020 (on a per 100 pitch rate). Simply put, when batters see a slider at the end of their plate appearances, they’re seeing extremely poor results.

Reid-Foley doesn’t have a crystal-clear role going forward. The Mets aren’t shaping up to have an interchangeable bullpen and at the moment it would appear that Joey Lucchesi has the edge on the fifth starter job. Any additional pitching depth on the 40-man roster would only bury Reid-Foley.

Heading into his final option year in 2021, he will have to take advantage of whatever opportunities he does receive to prove himself worthy of a roster spot in the future.

Josh Winckowski

None of these three pitchers distinguish themselves from the others, but Winckowski is in a bit of a different class given that he is not on the 40-man roster and has only reached the High-A level.

Standing at 6’4″, the 2016 draft pick works from an over-the-top release point. Primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, Fangraphs notes that he recently added a splitter to his arsenal. They also note his fastball has touched 97 mph, though that seems to be more of a bullpen read than a consistent occurrence in his starts.

Statistically, Winckowski has generated solid results as a pro but hasn’t posted the strikeout numbers that you would see from dominant pitching prospects. He hasn’t been burned by walks or home runs, though. In total, this is looking like a no. 4-5 starter profile with a multi-inning relief role not off the table.

Winckowski was not selected in the Rule 5 Draft in December, which likely means that teams were unsure of the state of his development after the lost season (he was not at the Blue Jays’ alternate training site). Though Double-A Binghamton would be the next step in his natural progression, a strong showing in spring training could see him push for a Triple-A Syracuse roster spot.

Josh Winckowski paints the corner in last night’s Lugnuts game. He went 7 innings, gave up 3 hits, 2 earned runs, 3 BBs, and had 7 Ks. He threw 90 pitches, 59 of those were strikes. pic.twitter.com/3IjIPDrP9A

— Ryan Di Francesco (@RyanDifrancesco) June 15, 2019

Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Yennsy Diaz

Díaz was another big amateur signing by the Blue Jays in 2014, bringing home a $1.6 million bonus. Not unlike Reid-Foley, Díaz has had little issue climbing up the minor league ladder and made his major league debut in 2019 as a 22-year-old.

Unfortunately for Díaz, that seven-batter, four-walk, two-run performance out of the bullpen has been the extent of his major league time thus far. He suffered a strained lat muscle in spring training last year and did not return to the mound until this winter in the Dominican Republic.

Yennsy Diaz bends baseballs. pic.twitter.com/Mc3FNhnKCU

— Ryan Di Francesco (@RyanDifrancesco) July 7, 2019

Though nearly all of his professional experience has come as a starter, Díaz currently projects as a low-leverage reliever. Both Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline grade his mid-90s fastball as his only plus pitch.

His offspeed command (seen above; he throws an average changeup as well) will be the difference between him being a contributor or a swift 40-man castoff (he has two options left and picked up a full year of service time while on the injured list in 2020).

The Mets made out pretty well here. Matz carried little-to-no trade value, and if he ends up providing the Blue Jays with solid value they’ll have to compete to keep his services on the open market next winter.

In exchange, New York received a trio of arms that are far from flashy but continue to deepen the organization’s pipeline.

The post Breaking Down the Mets’ Return Package for Steven Matz appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Despite popular sentiments, it would be incorrect to assert that the Mets have been operating in the Stone Age when it comes to analytics and forward-thinking over the past decade.

In addition to hiring two executives who had been at the forefront of the sabermetric revolution, Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta, the organization was quick to install and utilize Trackman radar systems throughout its minor league system and, as of last year, had a research and development department with at least five full-time employees.

But baseball front offices in 2021 are operating at a lightning-quick pace, and if the Wilpons left the Mets with anything it was an analytics infrastructure that simply cannot compete with the likes of the Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, and others that employ over 20 full-time analysts. Simply put, if you aren’t properly supporting R&D, your competition is.

It isn’t just the tools and technology that need funding. Elite organizations are recruiting the brightest minds in the field, and nowhere is there a more impressive concentration of coaches and researchers than at Driveline, a data-driven training facility in Kent, Washington, that has revitalized major league careers and developed elite amateurs.

In recent years, Driveline employees have been hired to ply their trade with the pros, and not just as low-level interns. Founder Kyle Boddy currently runs the Reds’ organizational pitching program and brought Eric Jagers, now their major league assistant pitching coach, with him. The Phillies hired Caleb Cotham as their major league pitching coach and Jason Ochart as their minor league hitting coordinator.

In total, somewhere around half of the 30 major league organizations have hired former Driveline employees, and it isn’t a shock to anyone that the Mets were not among them — until now.

Former major league reliever Carter Capps, most recently a private trainer and pitching analyst at Driveline, tweeted Tuesday night that he’ll be joining the Mets as a minor league pitching coach and coordinator.

I’m really grateful for my time spent @DrivelineBB. It is an extremely hardworking group, who gave me the tools to pursue a coaching career. I am excited to say I will be joining the @Mets to further my coaching career!

— Carter Capps (@CarterCapps) January 12, 2021

While the specifics of his role aren’t yet known (he’ll be based out of Port St. Lucie), Capps’ hire is a small indication that the new baseball operations leadership team of Alderson, Jared Porter, and Zack Scott — as assembled by Steve Cohen — is dedicated to exploring any avenue to gain a player development edge.

Capps flashed a short burst of brilliance in the majors, posting a 1.16 ERA with 58 strikeouts in 31.0 innings for the 2015 Marlins, but a rule change that neutralized his unorthodox delivery, Tommy John surgery, and thoracic outlet syndrome quickly derailed his career.

Capps retired after the 2018 season and pivoted to coaching. With Driveline, he increased his understanding and application of biomechanics and analytics.

He offered a glimpse of how he approaches the marriage of data and coaching on a recent Driveline podcast episode.

“I have to know that [the athletes] can handle that amount of information. What I do [with long-term clients] is slowly start conditioning them so that by the time they leave [Driveline] I’m expecting them to know all the nuances. But with these shorter-stay guys I know they’re already going to be overwhelmed when I do the biomechanics report.

“If a guy has great vertical break, good approach angle — ‘Hey, maybe think about throwing your fastball up in the zone a little more often,’ help that curveball tunnel a bit better so you don’t just have to get strikes on your 0-2 curveball in the dirt. A simple suggestion like that. I’m not going to tell him about vertical approach angle and pitch tunneling and stuff like that, it’s just ‘Hey, this would play better in this scenario, based off these two factors.’

“Then depending on his correspondence — ‘OK, that clearly hit home, he clearly understood that’ —we can go into level two pitch design-type stuff. Same thing with understanding biomechanics. It’s strictly based on what the athlete is giving back to me feedback-wise.”

A theme: communication. Understanding data is one thing, being able to translate it for untrained athletes is another. At just 30 years old, Capps is uniquely suited to bring cutting-edge topics to Mets minor leaguers — some of whom were active during his last season — without weighing them down with numbers.

Capps joins a department the features Jeremy Hefner and Jeremy Accardo, two former players that exhibit these same qualities, at the top. Ricky Meinhold was recently added to the major league staff and brings advanced knowledge of tech and data for someone who started out on the field. Analysts like Jared Faust and David Lang will be able to process the large amounts of collected data for dissemination throughout the organization.

It’s impossible to directly measure the effects of coaching on players, and the inner-workings of an organization are beyond what an outsider can surmise, but it’s encouraging to see the Mets take a step in hiring someone with a resumé that would open eyes in the most-respected baseball operations departments.

It’s a sign that Cohen’s regime, unlike the last, understands that any momentary lapse in trying to get ahead will leave you hopelessly behind.

The post Mets Hire Carter Capps, Commit to Building Modern Pitching Pipeline appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Speaking with reporters during his introductory press conference, new Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor said Monday that he would be open to discussing a long-term extension — just not if the talks overlap with his on-field duties.

“I have never been against an extension,” Lindor said before later adding, “I have never negotiated a contract during the season.”

Lindor was acquired with one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he hits free agency after the 2021 season. MLBTradeRumors.com projects Lindor to earn $21.5 million through the arbitration process.

That schedule could change if Lindor agrees to terms on a long-term deal. It appears that the best chance for an agreement would be if the terms were finalized by Opening Day. Similarly, superstar Mookie Betts and the Dodgers signed a 12-year contract one day prior to Los Angeles’ 2020 opener.

“I’m not against an extension, it just has to make sense for both sides,” Lindor said.

“I live life day-by-day. I’m extremely excited about what’s happening right now but I haven’t really sat down and talked to anybody.

The post Francisco Lindor Open to Extension but Won’t Discuss During Season appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets on Tuesday finalized the coaching staff that will flank manager Luis Rojas in 2021.

Much of the group had been previously confirmed or announced, but here it is in full:

Bench coach: Dave Jauss
Pitching coach: Jeremy Hefner
Hitting coach: Chili Davis
First base coach: Tony Tarasco
Third base coach: Gary DiSarcina
Bullpen coach: Ricky Bones
Field coordinator/catching coach: Brian Schneider
Assistant pitching coach: Jeremy Accardo
Assistant hitting coach: Tom Slater
Assistant pitching coach/minor league pitching coordinator: Ricky Meinhold

Jauss’ hiring was announced on Dec. 13. He returns to the position he served in under Jerry Manuel in 2010.

Tarasco, a Mets outfielder in 2002, joined the group on Dec. 30.

Davis’ return was expected but had not yet been confirmed. The 60-year-old was not with the team during the 2020 season out of concern for his health, instead providing remote instruction from his home in Arizona.

Schneider was the quality control coach last season. He assumes two new titles but will functionally be serving in the same role.

Meinhold is entering his second season in the organization after seven years with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he began as a minor league coach and was promoted to major league professional scout and pitching development analyst. The 34-year-old pitched for two seasons in the independent Frontier League after attending Drury University.

Despite the absence of a minor league season in 2020, Meinhold was with the Mets during Summer Camp and at the Alternate Training Site. He has received rave reviews from the minor leaguers he’s worked with, thanks to a traditional approach blended with progressive analytics and pitch design.

The post Mets Finalize 2021 Coaching Staff, Retain Chili Davis appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets and Noah Syndergaard agreed Tuesday to a one-year, $9.7 million contract for 2021, avoiding arbitration. The news was reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Syndergaard, 28, was eligible for salary arbitration for the fourth and final time this offseason. He also agreed to a $9.7 million contract during the 2019-20 offseason but did not pitch this past year while recovering from March Tommy John surgery.

The Mets now have nine players who can file for salary arbitration in January: Miguel Castro, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Edwin Diaz, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, and Dominic Smith.

Jacob Barnes, Guillermo Heredia, and Steven Matz reached agreements prior to the Dec. 2 tender deadline while Chasen Shreve and Nick Tropeano were not offered contracts and became free agents.

Mets president Sandy Alderson said last week that he expects Syndergaard to return to the major leagues in June, which would put his recovery time at 15 months. The average return-to-MLB time for surgeries performed between 2016 and 2017 was 19.8 months, according to Jon Roegele.

Syndergaard posted a 3.60 FIP and 4.4 WAR in 2019, placing him in the top 20 among qualified major league starters. His 18.8 WAR since his debut in 2015 ranks tenth league-wide.

Barring an extension or an acceptance of the qualifying offer, Syndergaard will hit the open market as a free agent next offseason.

The Mets and their remaining arbitration-eligible players have until Jan. 12 to agree to terms before the players can file. After that point, teams generally cut off negotiations until the hearings are complete.

The post Mets, Noah Syndergaard Avoid Arbitration appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets entered the offseason with obvious holes scattered around the diamond. They crossed two items off the to-do list by bringing catcher James McCann and reliever Trevor May into the fold, shifting their focus to rotation depth and a defensive upgrade in center field.

Those additions will surely be made. Whether the players ultimately brought in are among the elite options remains to be seen, but signing Trevor Bauer as opposed to Masahiro Tanaka, or vice versa, does not change the overall intention.

Yet with unprecedented resources now available in Flushing, the Mets are in a position to make improvements to their roster that stretch beyond the most glaring needs. Their 2021 third base situation, as it stands, is an obvious example.

Sandy Alderson seemed to throw the starting job up for grabs on Thursday. “If you’re talking about defensively, our third base situation is probably a little up in the air,” he said.

(Major League Baseball has instituted a plethora of rule changes recently, but at last check, the third baseman is still required to play the field.)

“Is it as glaring a need as like a third or fourth starter? I don’t think so,” Alderson continued.

“But we’re going to look for targets of opportunity and if there are ways to make our team better, in areas where we’re not the weakest but could use an upgrade, those are things Jared [Porter] and the organization will have to consider.”

In order to unpack the third base situation, start with the bird’s eye view.

Over the past two seasons — a sample of 222 games — Mets third basemen rank 18th in fWAR. You don’t exactly strive to be in the middle of the pack, but given strengths elsewhere you can stomach it. Less palatable is the group’s -10.5 fielding runs above average, good for 29th (ahead of only the Blue Jays).

The 2021 Mets will have trimmed a significant culprit in Todd Frazier, but the rest of the group remains nearly wholly intact. The two names that rolled off Alderson’s tongue in referencing the incumbent options were J.D. Davis and Andres Gimenez, confirming the assumption that Jeff McNeil is slated to inherit the bulk of Robinson Cano‘s innings at second base.

At this point in the offseason, neither Alderson nor Luis Rojas is willing to commit to Gimenez as the everyday shortstop, but given that the 22-year-old earned a slight majority of the starts over the final month of the 2020 season (15 of the last 27), there is no reason to believe the team will not give him the opportunity to beat out Amed Rosario for the job.

That leaves Davis, the 27-year-old favorite to start at third base on Opening Day next year as the roster is currently constructed.

In addition to a strong offensive performance in his first year with the Mets in 2019, Davis was passable with his glove at the hot corner, even grading out as above-average by Statcast’s outs above average. At the very least, an OAA of 1 is miles ahead of the -7 he posted in left field.

Pandemic notwithstanding, Davis regressed heavily in 2020. He was a league-average hitter by DRC+ (103) and lost 40 points of wOBA despite raising his walk rate.

But most notably, he graded out as the league’s worst defensive third baseman at -3 OAA. He was only credited was three errors in 71 chances, but you’ve got plays like this:

And the more infuriating:

You’re willing to accept Davis’ defensive shortcomings when he’s putting up a near-.900 OPS, but it stings considerably when his BABIP hovers back to league-average levels and the glove is also trending in the wrong direction.

In a perfect world, Davis is a very nice bench piece to have on your roster. He hits the ball hard, has a history of annihilating left-handed pitching throughout the minor leagues, and, yes, could theoretically stand at third base or in left field. He just hasn’t shown that he can do either at a level that warrants five or six starts a week.

It’s tough to tell, even after Alderson’s brief comments on Thursday, whether an upgrade at third base is of a relatively high priority to the Mets right now. Despite reports, it seems unlikely that the team would part with assets for Nolan Arenado, whose production took a significant step back in 2020 while his paycheck did not.

But aside from the Rockie, there just aren’t many options at third base on the market that represent multiple steps up from Davis. Justin Turner is 36 and has been pegged to return to Los Angeles by the industry. Maikel Franco has been league-average or worse his entire career. Travis Shaw is a walking non-tender.

Davis has found himself in plenty of mock trade proposals as the winter has begun to unfold, but it’s hard to imagine the Mets leaving their third base depth chart down to Luis Guillorme and Robel Garcia unless they’re prepared to hand the reigns to Gimenez.

Absent major developments on both sides of the ball, Davis could soon find himself fighting for a job that was once his to lose.

The post Sandy Alderson: Third Base Situation “Up in the Air” appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

The Mets gained a pitcher (for a few minutes) and lost another in Thursday morning’s virtual Rule 5 Draft.

The club selected Luis Oviedo from the Cleveland Indians with the ninth overall pick and traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for cash considerations.

Three picks later, the San Francisco Giants plucked RHP Dedniel Nunez from the Mets. A late international signing in 2016, he had a nice run in the first half of 2019 between Columbia and St. Lucie before getting shut down with a shoulder injury.

Rule 5 picks must remain on their new team’s major league roster for the entire 2021 season, or else their original team can re-claim him.

Here’s what Baseball America wrote about Nunez in ranking him as the Mets’ 21st-best prospect:

Nuñez stands out most for his fastball, which he throws 92-96 mph with an elite spin rate in excess of 2,600 revolutions per minute. The pitch averages 93 mph and has natural cutting action that makes it difficult for opponents to square up. Nuñez’s slurvy breaking ball averages about 80 mph and grades as an average pitch. He shows some feel for a changeup that grades near average. While Nuñez throws three pitches at or near average, he lacks a true out pitch, which puts his upside potential in doubt. His ability to execute pitches effectively is also hampered by a wrist wrap and wandering release point.

As expected, the Mets cleaned up in the minor league phase by making five selections. Unlike picks in the major league phase, minor league Rule 5 picks do not carry any roster restrictions.

In the first round, the Mets grabbed an Astros centerfielder, though not the one who’s been in the news recently. Drew Ferguson hit .281/.395/.440 with 27 stolen bases in Triple-A in 2019.

In the second round, they grabbed RHP Justin Dillon from the Blue Jays. He had a 4.21 ERA between High-A and Double-A in 2019.

In the third round, the Mets took infielder Drew Jackson from the Dodgers, a former top prospect with the Mariners who briefly reached the majors with the Orioles in 2019.

Their fourth-round pick was RHP Jesus Reyes from the Reds. After making five major league appearances in 2018, Reyes posted a 5.03 ERA in Triple-A in 2019.

The Mets’ fifth and final minor league pick was LHP Jose Zorrilla, whose professional track record consists of three seasons in the Dominican Summer League and an 8.84 ERA in the rookie-level Pioneer League.

The expectations for a minor league Rule 5 pick are astronomically low, though there are some success stories. 2018 Mets selection Chris Mazza ended up reaching the majors the following year. At the very least, it’s a cheap way to add depth to your system.

The Mets also lost four players who they left unprotected in the minor league phase. SS Sebastian Espino (Blue Jays), C Wilfred Astudillo (Reds), RHP Ezequiel Zabaleta (Rays), and 2B Mitchell Tolman (Giants) are headed elsewhere.

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The pitcher that the Mets are getting in Trevor May, ironically, came to form against them in 2019.

Inheriting a 3-2 lead in the seventh inning at Target Field on July 17, May hung an 0-2 curveball to Dominic Smith, who deposited it over the fence. The Mets went on to win 14-4.

The curveball, up until that day, had been a pitch May utilized 20 percent of the time. Following a post-game conversation with then-Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, May virtually scrapped the pitch and has thrown it just nine times since (all scattered throughout the remainder of 2019).

Trevor May said this curveball to Dominic Smith in 2019 basically led him to scrap the pitch: pic.twitter.com/braCpjRwKn

— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) December 3, 2020

Those interactions with Hefner, who is returning to the Mets in 2021 for his second season as pitching coach, played a major role in May’s decision to sign with New York.

“I think we grew a lot together, him as a coach and myself as a player,” May said in his introductory Zoom press conference on Thursday.

“Bouncing stuff off him and getting really good feedback of how I wanted to approach hitters and preparing to go through a lineup, preparing for when my spot’s going to come up — a lot of what I’ve learned was just having really candid conversations with him.”

May is the first major free agent addition under owner and CEO Steve Cohen, and the 31-year-old was not hesitant to praise Cohen’s outward statements of ambition.

“One of the biggest things [was] just kind of the buzz around Steve and the purchase of the team, the excitement of all the changes happening,” May said. “My immediate reaction was wanting to be a part of something like that.”

May has been one of baseball’s most effective set-up men since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018, posting a 140 ERA+ and 24.7 percent K-BB ratio over the last three seasons.

But that curveball to Smith and the downward trend of the pitch throughout the middle part of the 2019 season led May and to go all-in on his slider.

“Should we just lean into it,” May asked Hefner. Despite not yet having a feel for the slider (“Growing pains, growing pains,” May said), the two exchanged a shrug and “now here we are two-and-a-half years later.”

May bumped up his slider usage from 14.5 percent in 2019 to 32.6 percent in 2020. The returns were promising: he held opponents to a .185 wOBA on the pitch during the shortened season, down from .223 in 2019.

All of those adjustments stemmed from improved communication as his career went along. It’s no surprise that it coincided with his first interactions with the pitching coach he’s reuniting with in New York.

“With Hef, we figured out that I had locked in the focus thing — I had worked so hard on meditation and visualization — the execution was coming along — my arm was bouncing back, my velo was going up, and I had good command — so I said ‘O.K., what’s the last piece missing?

“That’s gameplan and analyis; why am I throwing what I’m throwing when? What is my ethos there?”

After reading about how Dallas Keuchel added that third element to his game, May wondered what it would look like if he adopted the same mindset, but also happened to throw 97 mph.

“That’s kind of how we developed my pregame plan, and a lot of it has to do with my strengths of throwing up in the zone, depth on breaking balls as opposed to horizontal movement, so how do I use those weapons to do the best of my ability with tunneling to fool guys and get swings-and-misses because that’s what I’m called on to do.”

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